Forecast: China in 2015

 Teshu Singh

The year 2014 can be considered the new leadership’s first year of functioning’. As predicted in early 2014 (China 2013: New Leadership), the foregoing year saw a more assertive China at the global level. Towards the end of the year, the central conference on work relating to foreign affairs was held in Beijing that gave a bird’s eye view of China’s foreign policy in the coming year.
Domestic Politics
For the first time, a lot of importance was given to Deng Xiaoping and his style of functioning. The national Chinese newspaper People’s Daily carried a special section on the leader. There has been constant comparison between both the leaders. There has also been conjecture on whether Xi would take the legacy of Deng Xiaoping forward (Contemporary Foreign Policy of China: Legacy of Deng Xiaoping). 
Last year saw a very tough stance on the issue of corruption; reforms were pushed ahead and many important reform measures were introduced. Rule of law was the central theme of the fourth plenary session of the eighteenth party congress. According to a report, 1.82 lakh officials at various levels were prosecuted for corruption, 32 leaders who rank at the level of vice minister were arrested and investigations started against them. The issue of corruption will be dealt with more strictly. As Xi Jinping mentioned in his New Year speech, efforts to advance reform and rule of law are “a bird's two wings."

The issue of Uighur terrorism in Xinjiang province will occupy the centre stage at the domestic level and the government will introduce a lot of affirmative action. Already the Chinese government has made some effort to defuse tension by promoting inter ethnic marriages in August 2014.

China and its Global projection
In the quest for the China Dream - national rejuvenation - China aspires to be a global power. According to IMF, in 2014, China surpassed the US in term of GDP based on PPP. Among many bilateral relationships; the most important for China is the Sino-US relationship. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue held (S&ED) has established precedence to the world that two countries with different cultural and social system can cooperate on diverse areas. In the coming year China will engage with the US in a more pragmatic manner to work for mutual benefit and work towards a Bilateral Investment Treaty (US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue: Lessons for India).

China is playing a very active role in multilateral organisations like the BRICS, SCO and APEC. Chinese foreign policy has become less personalised and more institutionalised, and more specifically, it is indicative of China’s growing interest in ‘multilateral diplomacy’ and ‘peripheral diplomacy’. During the 2014 BRICS Summit, China announced the establishment of the New Development Bank (NBD) with its headquarters in Shanghai and the Contingent Reserve Arrangements (CRA) (BRICS: China End Game).

Taking forward the developments of the BRICS summit, China launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The AIIB is a step towards projecting China as responsible regional player and subsequently a global power. It the Chinese alternative to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by the US and Japan and an answer to the US ‘pivot to Asia’. It is an endeavour by China to discourage Asian countries to seek help from the US or US-led institutions, thereby restricting its entry into Asia. The bank will also highlight China’s significant experience in infrastructure financing, and indeed, multilateral development banking in general (China and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: A New Regional Order). The bank will be operational in 2015.

APEC 2014 was the biggest event hosted by Xi Jinping after assuming power with the agenda of trade. China seeks to play a greater role in the region as America has in regard to Europe; a leader that seeks to protect the region from outside without any alliance and pressure. China used the available opportunities at the APEC meeting to project its global leadership by managing its conflicts and deepening its economic reform. One of the major developments of the APEC summit were the bilateral meetings of China President Xi Jinping with the US President Barack Obama and the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Amidst growing confusion over the ADIZ and the East China Sea dispute, both counterparts met for the first time during the summit. Yet another development that took place summit was the new term coined by Xi Jinping of the ‘Asia Pacific Dream’. China also proposed the free trade area of Asia Pacific (FTAAP) to promote Asia Pacific cooperation. Since China is already giving so much emphasis to the region the year in focus is going to unfold new strategies for the fructification of this ‘Asia Pacific Dream’.
Energy Security will also be one of the prime objectives of the government this year. According to the General Administration of Customs (GAC), China’s over sea oil purchase has already increased 9.5 per cent year on year to 308 million tonnes. China is looking forward to jointly build a new platform of China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) cooperation from a long-term and strategic perspective, and to develop a new comprehensive cooperative partnership. Earlier as soon as Xi Jinping assumed power he toured Latin American and Caribbean countries (China and Latin America: Quest for Energy Security).
China and its Neighbourhood Policy
China has been trying hard to improve relations with all neighbouring countries. It has been quite intrepid in its neighbourhood policy by launching the AIIB and implementing the Silk Road Belt initiative robustly.

Sino-Indian relations did not see much change except for Xi Jinping’s visit to India. During his visit sixteen MOUs were signed and China committed to invest USD 20 billion in the next five years. At the same time as the Premier’s visits a skirmish occurred along the Sino-Indian Border in the Chumur sector in Ladakh. This was rather a negative development in the bilateral relationship. However, new/big developments might follow this year when Narendra Modi will visit China.

Afghanistan is China’s neighbour and any development in the country is bound to affect internal dynamics in China. Given that Afghanistan is a landlocked country and shares a border with China, Beijing will engage with Kabul to secure its western periphery, especially the Xinjiang region. The region assumes more importance for China as it forms an important link in the ‘New Silk Road’ and is interconnected with China’s Western Development Strategy (WDS). China is interested in the economic reconstruction of Afghanistan as much as it caters to Beijing's foreign economic policy (China's Endgame in Afghanistan).

In the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), China is trying make all efforts to make it presence. China will work further to implement its Maritime Silk Road strategy in the region. It is also part of China’s larger strategy to develop extensive transport networks - roads, railway lines, ports and energy corridors. It would further cater to somewhat resolving China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’ and help augment the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy. With the US’s ‘pivot to Asia’, China is concerned about its aspiration to become a global power. Additionally, it is not a South Asian power but seeks a presence in the region. However, in the coming year with the change in government in Sri Lanka the MSR might see some hiccups.

China installed an oil rig in the disputed South China Sea (SCS). The installation of the rig appears to be a well calibrated move. Evidently, China has adopted a ‘salami slicing’ (step-by-step approach) in the SCS. It took over Mischief Reef from the Philippines in 1995; established Sansha city on the Yongxing Island/Woody Island a few kilometres from its Hainan Province; cut the cables of the Vietnamese vessels; occupied Scarborough Shoal; and is now constructing a runway on Johnson South Reef. The rig appears to be their next move in the region. Later in the month of December, the Chinese foreign ministry released a position paper of the government on the matter of jurisdiction in the South China Sea arbitration initiated by the Republic of the Philippines ( China's'Salami Slicing': What's Next). However, in the near-term, China will be more aggressive in the region with high probability of declaring an ADIZ, and might complete the construction of its second airstrip on the SCS by this year.

China and its Special Administrative Region
The later part of the year saw the pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong. It drew world attention towards China’s Special Administrative Regions (SAR) - Hong Kong and Macau - that were reunified with the mainland in 1997 and 1999 respectively. Both SARs are a part of China under a unique system famously known as ‘one country, two systems’. Today, it is economically prosperous with limited universal suffrage only in district council elections and parts of the legislative council. China’s endgame in Hong Kong is to reap the benefits of its economy with a firm control on its state apparatus (China's End Game in Hong Kong). This development will further effect China’s strategy towards Taiwan as well. China will be extra conscious in its policy towards Taiwan.

China will be even more proactive in pursuing a friendly and good-neighbourly policy toward its neighbouring countries and its Belt and Road initiatives will be also quicken. Chinese compromise on issues of core interest seems bleak and this may in turn antagonise its neighbour especially in its peripheral regions. Further, an editorial in the Xinhuanet, “Not a ‘Chinese Century’, but a less Westernised world” has elucidated that in the coming year, China is going to be more proactive without antagonising any other powers, big or small.

Forecast: Left-wing Extremism in 2015

 Bibhu Prasad Routray

At the onset of 2015, left-wing extremism (LWE) in India under the aegis of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is confronted with a choice of either coming to terms with the realities of its weakness and revisit the strategy of sustaining a protracted war with the state; or continuing with carrying out periodic attacks on the security forces and other state protagonists with the long-term aim of resurrecting itself yet again in the coming years.

Although the past few years have reinforced the notion that CPI-Maoist has ceased to be the force it used to be, there is little hope that in 2015, the outfit would halt pursuing its strategy of carrying out intermittent raids as well as expanding into newer areas. How the state responds to this challenge via its reformulated strategy would be something to watch out for.

Shrinking Extremist Domination
In 2014, the trend of declining fatalities in LWE-related violence continued. According to provisional data, only 314 fatalities were registered, which is the lowest since the formation of the CPI-Maoist in 2004. While Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand account 67 per cent of these fatalities, Odisha, Maharashtra and Bihar are the other states that reported the remaining fatalities. The CPI-Maoist, which once wielded influence over almost one-third of the country's geographical expanse, now operates with a constrained presence in these five states. A sudden expansion in the CPI-Maoist's area of operation is unlikely in 2015. The outfit would mostly be involved in guarding its remaining influence in these states.

Persisting Weakness
Affected by surrenders, killings and arrests of a large numbers of its cadres, the CPI-Maoist is clearly on a back foot, necessitating a phase of tactical retreat when the outfit rebuilds its strength. Among the many denominators that point at the state's tightening grip over LWE is the former's ability to carry out largely peaceful elections in various states. Jharkhand went for an assembly elections in November and December 2014. Additionally, the CPI-Maoist largely failed to carry out its threats of disrupting the poll; the over 66 per cent voter turnout – a record percentage in the state – demonstrated a growing popular confidence in the State's ability to provide security. A stable government, now a reality in state, has an opportunity of heralding an era of decisive action against the extremists.

Morale-boosting Assaults
The operational weakness of the CPI-Maoist, however, has not curtailed its ability to carry out periodic attacks resulting in high casualty among the security forces. In fact, such attacks would remain part of the CPI-Maoist's continuing attempt of seeking relevance, rebuilding its organisational strength, and inflicting setbacks on the security forces. The fact that the security forces in each of the LWE-affected theatres continue to face issues of coordination, leadership and direction, would aid the extremist efforts. Successful attacks such as the one that resulted in the killing of 14 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district on 1 December 2014, has already led to a defensive mindset among the forces, with the CRPF headquarters insisting that all major operations against the extremists must be cleared by the top brass of the organisation.

Enclaves of Strength
New Delhi has assured the affected states of support in dealing with LWE. However, for the states, emerging from an era of overwhelming dependence on the central forces has proved to be difficult. Progress in enabling its own police forces to take a lead role in countering extremism has remained a non-starter. This is apparent in the significant level of popular compliance to the CPI-Maoist's periodic calls for shutdown in various states. Even as the state makes advance establishing its writ over hitherto extremism-affected areas, several enclaves of extremist domination, especially in states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha would continue to mock the official claims of success.

Missing Bureaucracy
Resurrecting governance over the erstwhile Maoist-dominated areas has proved to be New Delhi's Achilles Heel. As of the beginning of 2015, the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs is pushing the state governments to appoint "officers with zeal" as district magistrates and superintendents of police in the extremism-affected districts. Even as the security forces register some successes in ending extremist domination over select areas, bureaucratic inertia in kick-starting governance has remained one of the primary hindrances in cementing success. Government functionaries are either reluctant to function in such hazardous zones or are indulging in rampant corruption exploiting the lack of accountability a conflict situation provides. The attempt to inculcate "zeal" among functionaries, both in the higher and lower levels of bureaucracy is likely to be a tough one for the state governments.          

Southern Expansion
One of the less highlighted aspects of the CPI-Maoist's activities in 2014 was its foray into Kerala. With a handful of incidents involving attacks on a forest department office and an outpost, and KFC and McDonald’s outlets, the Maoists have announced their presence in the southern state. While expansion into new areas remains an avowed objective of the CPI-Maoist exploiting fertile grounds, the divided official response has helped the outfit gain strength and sympathisers. Amid the Kerala police's steps to deal with the emerging threat, a senior government functionary has called for a stop to the hunt and has praised the Maoists for "energising the government machinery in tribal areas." The CPI-Maoist would continue its attempts to spread its activities into new areas in 2015. Sans a national consensus on dealing with the threat, some of these areas would lapse into new hunting grounds for the extremists.

Forecast: Islamic State in 2015

 Rajeshwari Krishnamurthy

In 2014, the world, already engaged in the tedious task of controlling and eliminating several religious radical terrorist groups, came face to face with a new and more brutal terrorist group, the Islamic State (IS). This group has proven itself to be more brutal, more radicalised, more efficient, more organised and more consolidated than any group that had previously emerged. Oddly, while the ideology they aim to forcefully implement across the globe is a grossly misinterpreted version of the original - that itself was, comparatively, only applicable in the time it was propounded - and taken as far from its context as possible, the group’s reach and functional capabilities have proven to meet global standards in today’s day and age.
Given how the rise of this group has shaken up the long-rooted complicated nature of geopolitical relationships in West Asia, it is imperative to understand the potential course its existence will follow through 2015, as policies towards addressing the IS problem are in formulation.
Increasing Strengths
So far, the IS’ territorial expansion has been tremendously curtailed, and this trend is likely to continue. The IS banks heavily on the marketing it does for the promotion of the quality of life it provides, to attract recruits. The regularity and frequency with which it has been producing high quality promotional material such as videos, magazines, etc has done it a lot of good. Therefore, it is likely to invest in the quality of propaganda, as well as other important technological fronts such as encryption platforms and mass communication paraphernalia. Its presence on various platforms and the fact that it responds to both supporters and opponents on these platforms- harnessing viewership from all quarters - has been particularly effective. Additionally, it will also up its ante in ‘research’. All the issues of the IS’ magazine, Dabiq, demonstrate the outfit’s strategy to legitimise its rationales by referencing and explaining several concepts by producing reports that read in the same style as research papers and essays. The IS comments on current issues and even counter-argues the questions raised on the creation and the legitimacy of the caliphate by means of theological references and ‘case studies’ presented in an analytical format. This is likely to continue, and as a result, influencing impressionable youth will continue, unless there is a genuine comprehensive effort towards preventing those impressionable youth from being carried away.
Emerging Weaknesses
While cracks began appearing in the IS’ strategies early on, credible signs began appearing since October 2014. If studied carefully, the IS does have the potential to implode, and without escalation of warfare. However, the IS still remains a formidable adversary, but unless it rethinks some of its policies, there are two key areas it will find itself growing weaker in, in 2015:
I. Levels of Consolidation of Power: Although the IS, for all practical purposes, does administer vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, it appears that it is unable to cope with the pace at which the idea of the caliphate it aimed to create is moving at. It certainly appears to have not understood the way a state functions - be it a democracy or a theocracy. It meticulously created departments to look into various affairs of administration of a state, but lacks the understanding of the relationship between a state and the people living in it.

The IS aims and has plans only towards replicating the historical depiction and/or narrative of a type of a state. It managed to blitzkrieg its way into creating the said state, but finds itself mired in the challenge of delivering as state machineries are supposed to. It has a long-term vision but appears to lack strategies to realise those visions - making this caliphate an unsustainable exercise. Additionally, it has alienated not only most of the populations in the territories it controls but also those who supported it during the initial period of consolidation of power - such as the other Sunni Islamist groups whose cadres also include Baathists from Saddam Hussein’s era. This will ultimately play an important role when the outfit attempts to expand further. Implosion of the IS will be more effective in the long-term resolution of the problem as compared to military defeat alone.
II. Financial Viability: The IS recently announced in an interview that they have established a central bank that would carry out tasks as any other central bank would. This development is essentially a propaganda exercise that might not be able to deliver all it promises. While a portion of its revenues flows in from the taxes it collects, the spoils of its plunders, and other means, a significant chunk of its revenue comes from oil sales. Now, as a result of the airstrikes, its ability to refine crude oil is almost nil, and therefore depends on selling the unfinished product. As a result, the revenue inflow has reduced considerably. This will affect its administrative and military capabilities considerably, as a substantial portion of its total revenue is spent on paying the fighters. This is precisely where the counter-strategies of the world must focus on, primarily- systematically dismantling those structures that help pump life and blood into this group’s existence. Simply put, no money will lead to fewer weapons and that will eventually result in lower threats of prolonged warfare.
Funding Sources in 2015
Thus far, the IS has depended heavily on energy revenues. With diminished oil-refining capacities, it now sells crude oil on the black market - which means, it makes lower revenues than before as crude oil sells at lower rates than refined oil. The shale revolution has resulted in reduction in oil prices, and therefore that too will impact its energy revenues. While it does control assets worth approximately US$2 trillion, and earn revenue via taxes, donations, extortion, ransom and sales of oil and minerals, it is increasingly finding it difficult to acquire and manage funds. With the noose tightening around its black market oil sales, the IS will find it progressively difficult to rely heavily on oil sales alone. It is already exploring alternative options to diversify its revenue sources. Given how the Kurdish areas are home to several operational oil fields, the outfit will try hard to bring those specific areas under its control, while looking for other options. It has already branched into a thriving drug trade - from Afghanistan via Nineveh in Iraq to heroin markets in Europe - and illicit trafficking of organs harvested from minorities, children etc with the help of foreign doctors, which is already generating significant revenues.

This aside, the outfit will still continue to receive ‘donations’ from wealthy benefactors in Gulf countries, and extortion money (although these two sources bring in comparatively lesser amounts of money) as long as financial transaction processes are not made entirely fool-proof. Furthermore, the IS might try and expand the scope of exchange via diamond trade as diamonds can be used to earn, gain or store value, and are easily moved or smuggled - given the lack of monopoly, diversification of distribution channels, entry of new markets and trade centres, the use of internet to trade and the increasing preference to use online transaction over cash payments, among others, in this sector. 
Nature of Human Capital in 2015
At present, apart from professionally unskilled radicalised people, the IS cadres include a considerable number of well-educated and skilled people such as engineers, doctors, graphic designers etc from various walks of life, from all over the world. This cosmopolitanism also works in the group’s favour in their efforts towards recruiting more cadres, and the IS will continue to recruit a variety of skilled people from various cultural and ethnic backgrounds. The multi-cultural backgrounds from which several recruits come from helps build the narrative that the Islamic State is truly a fair state for everyone. While promoting its relevance in the modern world, the IS will use this phenomenon to further its case. This is because the IS will need more skilled labour to run the territories under its control - especially the money-making sectors such as oil and gas, metals etc - while simultaneously ensuring that it has a foot in the door in the countries it gets recruits from. The IS’s human capital will therefore continue to be a mix of people from various social, cultural, economic and ethnic backgrounds and nationalities, and mostly young in age, with the only condition being they all come from Sunni Muslim backgrounds.
Efficacy of Counter-Strategies
Thus-far, the counter-strategies employed against the IS have seen decent, measurable results. The strategies currently in effect are primarily towards containing rather than elimination. It is a good start, because it would be preferable that the IS terrorists operating in Syria and Iraq are encircled and surrounded before actual efforts to eliminate the group are ramped up. This way, the region would not make the same mistake Pakistan did when it launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2014 - i.e. flushing out militants from its North-Western frontiers but failing to trap them - thereby making it possible for the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan to slip into Afghanistan and escape.
Already, with the US’ air strikes, the IS’ territorial expansion has almost stopped. The IS’s oil refining capabilities have also been tremendously damaged, and the group is on the defensive. There has been a slow but steady reclamation of territories from the outfit as well, with the Kurdish Peshmerga undertaking the bulk of the effort. Village by village, the Peshmerga is slowly reclaiming territories.
While continued support to the Kurdish forces is definitely recommended, it would alleviate many other issues if the pressure of providing for the refugees in the Kurdish areas is shared by regional and international players. Medical and sanitation assistance and food and basic amenities, especially to prevent epidemics, will have to be organised. As long as a substantial chunk of Iraq and Syria’s populations continues to live in the IS-controlled territories, carrying out air strikes will continue to remain a complicated exercise. The chances of counter-strategies aimed at neutralising the administrative capabilities of the IS are likely to have a higher impact.
Additionally, as long as the US continues to refrain from deploying more troops in the region, it would prevent the situation from escalating further. Iran is already engaged - a good sign. What is needed now is for Saudi Arabia and Turkey to make the choice, and act towards it. For reasons of symbolism, Saudi Arabia’s engagement in warfare - even nominal - against the Islamic State would be useful. The US and Turkey must prioritise on which one of its rivals it would prefer to defeat first - the IS or Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Finally, the targeting of IS’s financial channels will have to be continued with more vigour. The black market for oil, drugs and organ sales will have to be made unviable. More importantly, as long as the anti-IS coalition continues to engage with their counterparts on the ground and refrains from treating the IS as just another terrorist group, the successes will be comparatively higher in number. Simultaneously, plans for rebuilding Iraq will have to begin to be made. Otherwise, in an event of the collapse of the IS, any void will result in a Libya-like situation in Iraq.
The IS has to be destroyed from inside more than from outside. Unless the outfit implodes dramatically, a resurgence will always be a possibility.

Forecast: Towards a Nuclear Deal with Iran in 2015

Ruhee Neog

 

2014 was a year of significant global political upheaval; one in which the US, first among equals, had to repeatedly prove its diplomatic mettle. Of these, the Iran-West rapprochement and negotiations for a political settlement on the Iranian nuclear programme between Iran and the P5+1 assumed centre stage. If successful, the deal is expected be heralded as one of US President Barack Obama’s landmark foreign policy achievements during his time in office.

Drawing from analysis conducted over the past year, this article will attempt to look at the most outstanding sticking points that will continue to bedevil negotiations in the new year and why.

Status Report
Iran and the P5+1 signed the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) in November 2013: an interim deal until a final comprehensive agreement could be reached. This was a hailed as a definite breakthrough as the only agreement to have been successfully concluded since the one reached with now Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the negotiating table in the early 2000s. Under the JPOA, Iran was offered limited sanctions relief; this did not, however, extend to the more critical banking and oil sectors. In return, Iran agreed to freeze parts of its nuclear programme.
 

The JPOA was initially envisaged for a six month period – a sort of first step to cautiously gauge the opposition’s intentions while addressing concerns for a more conclusive resolution – without immediately tying either party to long-term commitments without proof of sincerity. Its functionality was therefore dual: as a confidence-building measure as well as a means to indicate, through the “limited, temporary, reversible” nature of the incentives, what the eventual pros and cons of a rapprochement could look like. This made it a concrete starting point for further negotiations of a kind that was previously missing (See Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definite Breakthrough). After the expiration of the six-month term (20 January-20 July 2014) during which time the negotiators failed to reach a compromise, the JPOA was extended until 24 November. This too expired without yielding a comprehensive solution. However, given the political capital invested in this undertaking and the P5+1 and Iran’s interests in seeing the deal through, an agreement to continue negotiations until mid-2015 has been reached. Until then, the arrangements under the JPOA will stay in place.

With this as the background, what are likely to be the main bones of contention that could threaten to derail the talks?

Domestic Politics: Unwilling Stakeholders?
It has been established that given the overarching political nature of the West-Iran rapprochement, domestic political constituencies will have significant leverage in okaying a final deal, and the difficulties encountered in negotiations owe chiefly to backstage management by political elites at home. Stakeholders in Iran and the US are unwilling to make compromises.

Take for example the PMD issue: members of the US Congress have already expressed their displeasure by saying that it is imperative for the PMD issue to fully cleared by the IAEA before a deal can be struck. Iran, on the other hand, has rubbished the PMD claims, made public in an IAEA Board of Governors report released in 2011, by calling them “mere allegations.” In this environment, the P5+1 may choose to sideline the PMD issue to expedite negotiations. However, given its increasing prominence owing to domestic political demands to see its full clearance, the P5+1 may not be able to eclipse it completely.

How is the Obama administration thus going to overcome opposition posed by the Congress? The Congress is famously at odds with the White House over what an ideal nuclear deal with Iran should look like, and while the latter can lift sanctions that were imposed by a presidential order, any attempt to lift those imposed by Congress will be riddled with challenges. If there is to be a way forward – one that assures the other party of additional respite – how is the Obama administration planning to navigate it, especially given growing cynicism about the deal and demands for the US to play hardball?

This same scenario is also likely to play out in Iranian domestic politics. How will Rouhani’s government seek to placate domestic audiences given the divergence of perspectives on not just the shape and contents of a deal with Iran but also whether one should be reached at all? (See Iran: An Imperfect Nuclear Deal Better than None at All? and Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: What Is Holding It Up?).

Iran’s Centrifuges: Who’s Counting?
One of the primary concerns that have delayed the conclusion of a comprehensive deal is the question of Iran’s enrichment capacity, on which the negotiators have thus far been unable to reach any kind of consensus. Iran wants to hold on to the 19,000 centrifuges in its possession. It has also repeatedly stressed its need for an enrichment capacity that meets, among others, the requirements for the fuelling of the nuclear power reactor at Bushehr, built by Russia under an Iran-Russia contract. Russia currently supplies the low enrichment uranium (LEU) to fuel the reactor, a job that Iran sees itself taking over once the contract expires in 2021. Significantly, this would require Iran to increase its uranium enrichment capacity, which could be at cross-purposes with the eventual aim of a comprehensive agreement: to curb the possible weaponisation element of the Iranian nuclear programme in perpetuity. The P5+1, on the other hand, seek a reduction where Iran desires an expansion.

As it currently stands, Iran has voiced its opposition to any meaningful reduction its uranium enrichment capacity – one that would delay its breakout time or the estimated time required to produce a nuclear warhead by a year – and this position that is seen as unacceptable to the P5+1. Although there have been some vocal demands for a complete end to Iranian uranium enrichment as an end-goal of the comprehensive agreement, it has also been recognised that this would not be politically realistic.

In this light, therefore, a lower capacity for enrichment is being sought. It has been argued that this would be a win-win for Iran and the P5+1. First, it would still allow Iran to meet the “practical needs” as recognised in the JPOA of its civilian nuclear programme, such as fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), Bushehr, and the four light-water research reactors that Iran has expressed an interest in building.

Second, this is expected to extend Iran's break-out in the event that it decides to bow out of the agreement, and enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. Third, Russia may apparently be willing and able to extend its contract to supply fuel to Bushehr post 2021. Also, as Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues, “Iran has no agreement with Russia licensing the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI) to make Bushehr fuel, giving Iran access to the intellectual property for the design of the reactor core internals, for the design of the fuel assemblies, and for the chemical and physical specifications of the fuel.” If Russia, given its commercial interests in retaining the contract, is unwilling to hand over fuel supply to Iran, then Iran’s argument for greater enrichment capacity on this basis can be considered invalid.

Iran's stand is that it will not forego its right to enrich uranium for peaceful means as promised to it by the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) and in pursuit of its civil nuclear ambitions. This right, used often and publicly by Iranian statesmen to define their expectations from the P5+1, informs the Iranian approach to the talks and is therefore non-negotiable. (See Iran: An Imperfect Nuclear Deal Better than None at All?)

Iran’s Possible Military Dimensions (PMD): Catch-22?
PMD here refers to covert indigenous work carried out by Iran in the past, whether design or research-oriented, towards a nuclear weapon.

Nuclear negotiations with Iran have thus far taken place on two different tracks. One of these was with the P5+1 that resulted in the six-month Joint Plan of Action (JPOA). The Framework Agreement struck between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) looks to the technical aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme. In this regard, there has been some debate about a possible conflict of interest between the two tracks. In 2011, IAEA Director General Yukiyo Amano submitted an exhaustive report to the Board of Governors on Iran’s ‘possible military dimensions’ (PMD). The report was apparently based on numerous reliable sources as well as IAEA’s own independent investigation, and it claimed that Iran had in the past pursued activities related to the development of a nuclear weapon. The IAEA would therefore naturally seek answers to these allegations from Iran.

However, it has been alleged that in the enthusiasm for a comprehensive agreement, the P5+1 could ignore the PMD aspect if all other conditions are met. It could stand to reason that if Iran’s break-out capability is indefinitely delayed and the technology available to it is severely limited, in addition to greater transparency and IAEA access to its facilities, the PMD question may not have to be directly dealt with at all. In addition, even if the P5+1 agree to discuss the issue, Iran is unlikely to admit to any such activity in the fear of a backlash, and due to its fatwa against nuclear weapons. If Iran chooses to disclose these details, it could quite possibly derail the negotiations process. It will be a very hard sell for the Obama administration to convince the tough customers of the US Congress that a final deal that trades sanctions relief for a capped nuclear programme is in the best interest of the US, especially after Iran’s past activities come to light. Proof of weaponisation work can create an environment unconducive for rapprochement, and that these activities were conducted in the past will be irrelevant as popular sentiment quickly turns against Iran.

The bottom line however remains that a resolution of the PMD issue has implications for future verification of Iran’s nuclear programme. (See Iran-P5+1 Nuclear Negotiations: What Is Holding It Up? and A Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Four Potential Roadblocks)

Since the negotiations began, technical issues and domestic politics were expected to throw a spanner in the works – a misgiving that has since been justified. Recent frustration notwithstanding, this extension provides the necessary space for a stock-taking of where the negotiations stand, what the sticking points are, and how best to move forward in the right diplomatic direction. Also, this extension should not read as failed diplomacy, and take away from the good work done so far and the noteworthy achievements made under the JPOA. Most importantly, Iran and the West have met at the negotiating table for the first time since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani led the last (failed) talks in his former avatar as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator. As starting points go, therefore, the deal itself is a diplomatic breakthrough, and in this give and take, it is hoped that the negotiating parties build on past mileage by focusing not so much on what is ideal, but what is achievable.

Housing affordability crisis worsens in New Zealand

John Braddock

New Zealand’s deepening social disaster was highlighted by a report released on January 19 showing that Auckland, the country’s biggest city, now ranks among the least affordable in the world for housing.
The 2014 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey compares house prices with incomes in 378 cities, including 86 with more than one million people. Auckland is home to 1.42 million people, a quarter of NZ’s population. It was ninth least affordable out of the 86 major cities and 14th overall.
A property bubble and rampant speculation following the 2008 financial crisis has contributed to soaring income inequality along with sustained attacks on the wage levels and basic social rights of ordinary people, including access to accommodation. Auckland’s housing market is now only slightly cheaper than London but less affordable than Los Angeles, Toronto, New York, Perth, Brisbane and Boston.
In 2013, Demographia found the median Auckland house price was $506,800 and the median household income $75,200. This gave the city a “median multiple” (house prices divided by incomes) of 6.7. Anything more than 3 is regarded as unaffordable. Last year, Auckland’s median house price jumped to $561,700 but the median household income fell to $70,500, giving a multiple of 8. The figure has since blown out to 8.2.
New Zealand’s metropolitan areas all rank as “severely unaffordable.” Tauranga rates as 6.8, Christchurch 6.1 (the same as New York), Wellington 5.2, Napier-Hastings 5.1, Hamilton 4.7, Dunedin 4.6 and Palmerston North 4.1.
The working class, particularly its most impoverished layers such as younger workers and Pacific Islanders, are bearing the brunt of declining home ownership, high rents and overcrowding. Auckland’s population grew by 8.5 percent between 2006 and 2013, but the number of dwellings rose by only 7.6 percent. Rosemary Goodyear from Statistics NZ told the New Zealand Herald: “It is not only young people who have been affected by the fall in home ownership. There have been substantial drops in home ownership for Aucklanders aged in their 30s, 40s and 50s since 2001.”
Since the 1930s, home ownership has been widely regarded in New Zealand as central to family security. During the mid-1980s, the rate stood at 74 percent, but has now fallen to 66.2 percent nationally and 61.5 percent in Auckland. The drop was greatest among Pacific Islanders, down 8.3 percentage points to 17.4 percent. More than three-quarters of Auckland households with incomes over $100,000 own their home, compared with only 57 percent of those earning $50,001 to $70,000.
One in seven, or 203,817, Aucklanders live in overcrowded conditions, including garages. People aged 20-24 are most likely to be affected, while 45.3 percent of Pacific Islanders lived in crowded households last year. Poor housing conditions are a major factor in the spread of infectious illnesses among children, including meningococcal disease, tuberculosis, acute rheumatic fever and respiratory infections.
According to a City Mission count last October, the number of homeless people in central Auckland more than doubled in 2014. It found 147 people sleeping rough within a 3-kilometre radius of the Sky Tower, compared with 68 in 2013. The number of women rose dramatically, from seven to 31. There were 14 teenagers and 25 people aged in their twenties.
David Zussman, from the Monte Cecilia Trust charity, told the Herald many families with a “priority A” social housing rating, which means “immediate need for action,” could not get social housing in Auckland. The national priority A waiting list was below 450 families for a decade up to 2012, but ballooned to 1,077 by the end of that year and reached 2,810 last September.
Successive governments are responsible for the worsening crisis, having placed housing in the hands of the “free market,” dominated by the banks, speculators, developers and landlords. In 2013, the National Party government and Auckland Council agreed to a Housing Accord, purportedly aimed at relieving the housing shortage by building 39,000 new homes. So far, only 350 have been constructed, with just 20 a direct result of the accord. Property developers are standing by while the value of their land increases, looking for higher profits before building.
The inadequate supply of public housing, provided to tenants at income-related rents, is facing privatisation. Following National’s re-election last September, Finance Minister Bill English announced a radical “reform” of state housing. According to the plan, which was kept hidden during the election campaign, the state will no longer own all, or possibly any, public housing. Instead, it will be owned and run by charities, Maori tribal entities and other private sector groups.
Housing NZ, which currently owns over 70,000 houses, valued collectively at $17 billion, is likely to be eliminated. English declared that he “didn’t care” about the government “owning houses” and was prepared to sell them off to “anybody.” The sell-off will be a bonanza for corporate investors. They will seize the housing, first established during the 1930s Depression, at bargain basement prices.
The opposition Labour, Mana, Green and right-wing populist NZ First parties have labelled National’s policies as a “spectacular failure” but are complicit in the assault. Labour raised only token opposition last year to legislation doing away with lifetime public housing tenancy. The party’s housing spokesman Phil Twyford has previously supported state house sales to community groups and Maori tribal businesses.
All these parties played a filthy role in the last election campaign, blaming immigrants for the housing shortage. NZ First leader Winston Peters set the xenophobic tone, declaring that the leading estate agents in Auckland were Asian, “so who are they selling to?” Labour’s then-leader David Cunliffe followed suit, declaring: “It would take 80 percent of our housing supply just to accommodate this year’s migrants—and National is doing nothing.”
The Maori nationalist Mana Party, which claims to represent the poor and was actively supported by New Zealand’s pseudo-left groups, also used the housing issue to promote reactionary nationalism. Mana’s vice-president John Minto declared in a TV1 debate that foreigners were “bidding up the [house] prices … and keeping them out of the hands of decent New Zealanders.” Mana called for more public housing, while demanding increased funding for “third sector housing providers,” including churches and the tribal elite that the party represents.

German corporations call for new forms of workplace exploitation

Dietmar Henning

Representatives of government, industry, economic institutions and trade unions have recently been citing “Industry 4.0” in strident calls for a “fourth industrial revolution”. Behind it is the demand for total labour “flexibility” and a brutal sharpening of workplace exploitation.
According to the web site of the German ministry of education and research, the “... Industry 4.0 project aims to enable German industry to be prepared for commodity production in the future world. ... Industrial production will be characterised by a strong customisation of products under conditions of greatly flexibilised (high-volume) production, a comprehensive integration of customers and business partners into business and value-adding processes, and a coupling of production and top-quality services”.
Through use of the Internet, working hours, rates and payment will be completely adapted to “market” conditions and subordinated to company profit interests. Although the government continues to champion itself as a great reformer because it introduced a (very low) minimum wage, it is preparing new forms of exploitation that make the iniquity of piecework look like a veritable social benefit.
Numerous research projects and institutes, financed by big business and the federal government, are the driving forces behind the campaign. Heading them is the Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA), whose 1,300 members worldwide makes it the world’s largest economic research network.
IZA’s Werner Eichhorst calls the imminent development a “process of creative destruction”, meaning that job types will disappear and new ones come into being. He stresses that simple forms of labour, routine work and even skilled jobs in industry will become less important, while work requiring high qualifications will become more important. He neglected to add that this would amount to work under conditions of virtual slavery and at minimum wages.
In its 2013 study, “Production Work of the Future—Industry 4.0”, the Fraunhofer Institute of Labour Economics and Organisation (IAO) provided a platform for leading scientists and business leaders to speak out, and thus give a taste of the social impact expected to accompany the new forms of work.
Higher volatility in markets would have to be dealt with more efficiently in the future. “That means it will no longer simply be a matter of flexibility in our customary eight-hour working; it will go far beyond that”, explained longtime Fraunhofer IAO director Professor Dieter Spath, who became CEO at the global Wittenstein gearing technology company in 2013.
Stefan Ferber Bosch described the current problem thus: “What is in it for me, if I have a factory that brings me the highest profits when it is functioning at 98 percent of its capacity, but I cannot predict what I will be able to sell next month?” He urged that factories would have to be built that could handle these fluctuations, and do so “in real time”.
Two thirds of the companies surveyed in the study are considering the possibility of using short-term production staff to be a matter of particular urgency. This is said to apply especially to “large firms with more than 1,000 employees (82.9 percent), companies from the automotive industry (77.8 percent) and businesses subject from day to day to strong short-term market fluctuations (76.8 percent)”.
The Fraunhofer study cites the operation of Stuttgart Airport as a good example of workforce flexibility. Local air traffic there fluctuates greatly between summer and winter, weekdays and weekends, and within the day. The approximately 200 employees in ground handling services (loading luggage, transporting passengers to the aircraft etc.) are extremely flexible, i.e., for 365 days a year and around the clock.
Professor Georg Fundel, managing director of Stuttgart Airport Ltd., reported that when production dropped by 30 percent following the onset of the world economic crisis staff work time accounts were reduced considerably. Employees then worked longer hours in the summer.
Internal relocation of employees was also practiced at Stuttgart Airport. “When we have less to do in the winter, the staff are glad to be able to exercise their work skills in other parts of the company”. Workers who had no luggage to load could take on various monitoring jobs in security sections; others distributed leaflets in the terminal or performed public relations tasks. “That would have been unthinkable in the past”, CEO Fundel admitted.
According to Fundel, the flexible system introduced in 2004 has proved a success: “In the past, we paid almost a million euros a year in overtime pay. Today, we no longer pay in terms of overtime hours; instead, we reduce them when less work is available”.
But the company’s idea of flexibility goes a lot further than this. Temporary and contract labour are no longer regarded as sufficient ways of cost-cutting. The time has come for the creation of the “flexible freelancer”. This involves skilled personnel with multiple qualifications, who are available round-the-clock, are capable of doing a variety of jobs, require no company contributions to social security benefits, and have no rights to a guaranteed income—which amounts to a daily wage swindle targeting skilled workers and academics.
As soon as they are in plentiful supply, “flexible freelancers” will be pitted against each other so that their earnings can be greatly reduced. This slight-of-hand form of exploitation already exists in the practice of so-called “crowd-sourcing”. Here, transnational companies tender problem-solving tasks from an Internet platform, and each “solo self-employed” person offers a solution. However, only the contributor of the best piece of work is paid; all the others are left empty-handed.
In this way, companies relieve themselves of any and all social responsibility. All the achievements and forms of security, won by the working class over more than a century, are obliterated. Most of the solo self-employed, who are usually highly skilled, are responsible for their own pensions, health insurance and unemployment support. They receive no sick pay when they are ill, no paid holidays, and no holidays or Christmas pay at all.
In addition to “self-employment”, various forms of “flexibility” are demanded in order to optimally exploit human labour. Dr. Constanze Kurz, union secretary on the IG Metall executive board, observed that “Wage contract settlements already set frameworks that allow employers to deviate from prior agreements,” adding: “But when it comes to the issue of flexibility, I think the companies are in many ways only just beginning.”
In addition to the now widely instituted forms of temporary and contract work, the flexible deployment of workers in a variety of workplace departments is cynically welcomed by companies as a “qualification offensive”. According to the Fraunhofer study, “Lending employees from one kind of working group to another, whenever it is deemed necessary, requires employees to be able to offer a broader range of qualifications”. It concludes that continual job training in pursuit of ever more qualifications will be of great importance.
The fact that moving employees from one company department to another involves acquiring new skills is also used as an excuse to lower wages. The Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA) suggests that young workers, in particular, must be willing to work for low wages at the beginning of their professional careers. They receive payment in the form of training and qualifications—although such qualifications are tailored to the requirements of their current employer and thus important only to that employer’s company.
Dortmund professor Michael ten Hompel suggests that “people with mobile terminal devices, e.g. smart phones, should be integrated into the Industry 4.0 project”. Such people would be available 24 hours a day and seven days a week. They could also work from home and therefore save the employer the cost of office space and work equipment. Commenting on this, Dr. Klaus Mittelbach of the Electrical Technology and Electronics Industry association said: “I think factories of the future will be just as empty of people as are today’s paperless offices”.
The involvement of workers using mobile devices will also lead to an enormous intensification of work stress. First, it makes every step taken, every handshake, every pause to take breath, literally everything, subject to monitoring. Large shipping corporations, such as Amazon and Zalando, have already implemented this employment strategy in their warehouses. Scanners worn on the wrists of all employees there make them locatable and observable at all times. Second, when something unexpected happens to disrupt the working process, it is the worker who has to react quickly and flexibly, and pay for the damage or delay by working overtime. He or she has no fixed working hours, anyway.
The campaign for the “work of the future” in Industry 4.0 strikingly recalls the campaign for the introduction of group work into industrial production in the 1990s. At that time, companies and trade unions used Orwellian doublespeak to glorify group work as the “humanisation of work”. Today, entrepreneur Manfred Wittenstein, rhapsodically musing in the Fraunhofer study, foresees that “People will find greater satisfaction in work for which they are responsible.” He adds that the increased availability of information on a company’s premises “facilitates (the employees’) entry into the creative process, as opposed to (their traditional obligation of) merely carrying out prescribed tasks.” In Wittenstein’s view, this autonomy “leads to less alienation from work”.
In reality, group work meant group piece rate work, and now this principle is to be extended to the entire “networked” workforce in the context of Industry 4.0.
Trade unions are playing a central role in the development of these new methods of exploitation. It is no coincidence that Verdi boss Frank Bsirske has a place on Fraunhofer IAO’s advisory board. Dr. Constanze Kurz, union secretary in the IG Metall leadership, expresses herself several times in the Fraunhofer study. Among other things, she welcomes the possibility that in the future “people, who today would never think about working in industrial production, will find this field attractive”. According to the IG Metall secretary, production work today has “a certain smell about it and it is not easy to get rid of”.
The Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA) is led by the “policy fellows” Hubertus Schmoldt, former chairman of the Mining, Chemical and Energy (IG BCE) union, and Ruprecht Hammerschmidt, press spokesman for the Construction, Agriculture and Environment (IGBAU) union.
The trade unions praise IZA as a key player in German industry: “And especially central is the organization of specific work procedures in the factories”. At a new year press conference last week, German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB) boss Rainer Hoffmann stressed that the DGB would be actively taking part in determining changes in the working world. The motto for this year’s trade union May Day is: “We shape the work of the future!”

First round of US-Cuba talks end as restrictions eased

Alexander Fangmann

The United States and Cuba have ended two days of talks, held Thursday and Friday last week in Havana. The first high-level discussions since 1980 are aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries. Though no significant changes were announced in the immediate wake of the meeting, both countries have described it as part of a “process.” In fact, there is now significant momentum behind a rapprochement, with Cuba eager to make accommodations to US imperialism before it faces a serious financial crisis, and the US moving to undercut Cuban ties to Russia and China.
The lack of immediate progress may set back the goal of restoring full diplomatic relations in time for the Summit of the Americas in April, which both Cuban President Raul Castro and US President Barack Obama are expected to attend.
The head of the US delegation, Roberta S. Jacobson, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, indicated that rather than meeting this kind of deadline, the negotiations may be protracted, saying, “Our efforts to normalize relations will be a continuing process that goes beyond diplomatic ties and the opening of embassies,” and that “We have made further steps in that direction.”
The most serious obstacle that has emerged is the US insistence that its officials be allowed unrestricted travel within the country, including the ability to meet with the “dissidents” that it funds in efforts to destabilize the regime. This is entirely in keeping with the ultimate US goal of replacing the current regime in Cuba with a more pliant one. However, it has provoked resistance from the Cuban delegation to the talks, led by Josefina Vidal, head of the Foreign Ministry’s US Division. She made a statement in regard to the future free movement of diplomats, that “this consideration is associated with better behavior.”
As if to underscore the US position, Jacobson hosted a breakfast meeting for dissidents on Friday. Among the attendees were a number of the 53 political prisoners recently released by the Cuban government as a result of the talks that led to this meeting.
Vidal said, “This is exactly one of the differences we have with the US government because for us, this is not just genuine, legitimate Cuban civil society.” In response to Jacobson’s claim that human rights are the “center of our policy,” the Cuban delegation pointedly referred to police shootings in the US as well as the continued detention of prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base.
Another sticking point in the discussions is the US designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism—an inversion of the actual relationship, in which the United States has repeatedly supported terrorist acts and harbored terrorist fugitives, such as Luis Posada Carriles, convicted in absentia of the bombing of Cubana Flight 455, in which 73 people were killed.
Vidal expressed that “it would be difficult to explain that diplomatic relations have been resumed while Cuba is still unjustly listed as a state sponsor of international terrorism.” To this end, Obama has asked the State Department to initiate a review culminating in a recommendation to be presented to him in six months, a move revealing the extent to which the list in question—which includes only Iran, Sudan, Syria, and Cuba—is a political creation. This is, of course, entirely in keeping with the hypocritical and phony character of the “war on terror.”
Whatever the Obama administration’s pretensions, Washington’s efforts to open relations with Cuba have nothing to do with the promotion of “human rights” or democracy. Rather, the goal is to deny access to Cuba’s economy by regional rivals such as Brazil and Venezuela, as well as Russia and ultimately China, in its bid to encircle and contain the latter’s rise. As if to emphasize the geopolitical calculations involved, while the meetings in Cuba were underway, the Russian surveillance ship Viktor Leonov CCB-175 was moored in Havana’s harbor.
Moreover, there are a number of business interests hoping to take advantage of cheap Cuban labor, under the discipline of either the Cuban Stalinists or a future more pliant regime based on bourgeois layers currently being cultivated through remittances and more direct forms of funding. The US Chamber of Commerce led a trip to the island last year, and there has been a growing call from wealthy Cuban exiles to scrap the embargo in order to resume direct capitalist exploitation of the island’s workers. Movement in this direction has only accelerated with the recent slowdowns in the economy, particularly oil and manufacturing which have been hit by slowing worldwide demand.
On January 15, further easing of travel restrictions for US nationals to Cuba took effect, wherein US citizens no longer have to apply for a specific license from the Treasury Department. Though tourism is technically still prohibited, a broad range of activities qualify, including professional research and meetings, journalism, educational activities, religious activities, public performances, sporting events, support for the Cuban people, humanitarian activities, and export or import of information or information technology.
Many US companies stand to profit from the changes, including agricultural and telecommunications firms which are now able to draw on more convenient financial arrangements that will fuel commercial activity. Financial services companies also stand to make swift gains from the relaxation. Travelers will now be allowed to use US-issued credit and bank cards, with MasterCard being the first to announce that its cards will be usable in Cuba on March 1.
At the same time that the US government hopes to reestablish Cuba as a semi-colony, the Cuban regime is appealing to US imperialism over fears that Venezuela, due to the recent fall in oil prices and its own ongoing economic crisis, will no longer be able to supply the nearly 100,000 barrels per day of oil to Cuba at extremely subsidized prices.
According to some estimates, the subsidies might amount to 15 percent of Cuban GDP, and economist Carmelo Mesa Lago has stated that the nominal amount of Venezuelan support is more than that which was supplied by the Soviet Union, before its support was also withdrawn in a period of falling oil prices, and ultimately the dissolution of the USSR.
The Cuban regime is gambling that it might be allowed to stay on as a labor police force and junior partner to American capitalism as it seeks to exploit cheap Cuban labor. This entirely substantiates the political evaluation of the Cuban regime made by the International Committee of the Fourth International. The efforts of the ruling layer led by Raul Castro to ingratiate itself to American imperialism is likely a futile one, but it speaks volumes that it sees more hope in Obama and the US military-intelligence apparatus he represents than in either the American or Cuban workers and their revolutionary capacity.

Mass job losses unfold in global oil industry

Gabriel Black

Baker Hughes and Schlumberger, two of the largest oil service companies in the world, announced this month that they would lay off 7,000 and 9,000 workers respectively as segments of their companies become unprofitable. The cuts are just a fraction of a larger wave of job losses throughout the United States and internationally due to the oil price decline.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US oil index, has dropped by more than 60 percent since its previous peak in July of 2014. WTI is currently trading at $44.83 a barrel after hovering around $110 in the summer of 2014. The extreme drop in price has led to a depression of the current shale boom in the United States as well as the tar sands industry in Canada. Shale oil has been the first type of production to be hit by the price drop because it is significantly more expensive than conventional oil production.
The Dallas Federal Reserve estimates that in Texas alone 128,000 jobs will be lost by this summer if prices remain around $50 a barrel. The CEO of MBI Energy Services, Jim Arthaud, told CNN that 20,000 jobs would be lost by June simply in the region around Williams County, North Dakota, the site of a major shale boom.
Baker Hughes is in the process of being acquired by Halliburton, which recently made a job cut of 1,000 workers. Baker Hughes will lay off a whopping 11 percent of its workforce, or 7,000 people. Schlumberger’s cut of 9,000 workers represents 7 percent of its global workforce. Paal Kibsgaard, CEO of Schlumberger, warned in a statement that job cuts in the oil industry were not over.
Many smaller oil companies are going through even more significant cutbacks, as they are less able to weather the financial difficulties produced by the price drop. Laredo Petroleum, an exploration and development company located in Tulsa, Oklahoma, will fire 20 percent of its workforce and close its office in Dallas, Texas. In 2012, the company employed 340 people. Apache Corporation, a multinational oil company with about 5,299 employees in 2012, will fire 5 percent of its global workforce. Suncor Energy announced it would lay off 1,000 workers, Ensign Energy Services 700 workers, Hercules Offshore 324 workers and Civeo 200 workers, all due to the oil price drop.
US Steel, which already announced the firing of 756 workers, will now bring the total to about 1,300 workers after the announcement that it would idle its East Chicago Tin Mill, laying off 369 workers. The most profitable segment of US Steel’s operations is so-called Oil Country Tubular Goods for pipelines and oil rigs. ArcelorMittal also announced that 304 jobs would be eliminated when it shuts down its electric arc furnace at its nearby Indiana Harbor Long Carbon facility on March 1.
A survey of oil and gas managers by Rigzone shows that 44 percent of surveyed companies plan over the next six months to hire fewer workers, many of whom work on a contract basis. Of those surveyed, 29 percent said there would be no change in hiring. New drilling has dramatically slowed, with the current oil rig count at a five-year low and falling.
The oil layoffs are having devastating effects on workers, their families, and those in communities that rely on these workers for their own jobs in retail, restaurants and other service industries.
CNN spoke to John Roberts, an oil crew truck driver in North Dakota, who like many oil workers was housed in company dormitories. Roberts told CNN he was given 24 hours to leave his house when Schlumberger laid him off. Roberts is now sleeping on a friend’s couch. Aaron Neiffer, an oil rig worker, told the news agency he was worried and that “They’ve already started laying people off.” Aaron and Roberts are both married and have several children.
Chris Gabriel, the owner of a restaurant in Hominy, Oklahoma, told the local KOTV news station, “My thought is, if you’re not in oil and gas, you’re still affected by it. Every one of us are affected, especially in this area.” Gabriel, who had begun giving free meals once a week to all workers and families in the area, told KOTV the oil industry was “the oxygen and the blood for this area.”
An oil worker at Gabriel’s restaurant told KOTV, “We’re all worried about it.” Continuing, he said, “Imagine if your salary got cut in half and then somebody says, ‘Well you’re paying a dollar less for a gallon of fuel, aren’t you excited?’ No, I’m not excited about it.”
Anthony Rodriguez told KSAT news in Texas, “Everybody is cutting back and it’s a scary time.” Rodriguez, who works at an oil field supply company, said the price drop “keeps you on your toes, worried about your job every day.” KSAT also spoke to TJ Patel, a motel owner in Tilden, Texas, who said, “Companies used to stay and everybody had their own room. Now if they live within a 30-minute or hour drive they would rather go back home.”
Internationally oil cuts have also accelerating. In Mexico, over 10,000 contract service workers at the Mexican petroleum company have lost their jobs. Sir Ian Wood, the head of an oil engineering firm situated in the North Sea’s petroleum producing region, warned in a public statement that 40,000 jobs are at risk in the area this year.

Top New York state Democrat indicted for corruption

Philip Guelpa

In a major scandal that exposes the thoroughgoing rot and hypocrisy of capitalist politics, Sheldon Silver, Democrat and long-time Speaker of the New York State Assembly, was indicted last Thursday on charges of corruption. A federal magistrate issued orders to freeze more than $3.8 million in various bank accounts controlled by Silver, whose legislative salary was $121,000 a year.
As assembly speaker for the past 20 years, Silver wielded tremendous power, along with the governor and the state senate majority leader, as part of the notorious “three men in a room” who made key decisions on state government policy.
In a news conference after Silver’s arrest, US Attorney Preet Bharara stated that the indictment exposes “an overabundance of greed, cronyism and self-dealing.” Silver “illegally monetized his public position,” Bharara said. The investigations are ongoing, meaning that more indictments may be announced in the future.
The indictment against Silver accuses him of receiving a total of $4 million in bribes and kickbacks from two law firms, which he reported as legal fees. In one case, Silver allegedly steered a half-million dollar grant to a doctor who had been sending victims of asbestos-related illnesses to a law firm with which Silver was associated, generating millions in fees to the firm. In the other, he is said to have received $650,000 from a firm representing real estate interests in order to influence relevant legislation.
Silver has been linked to other recent scandals, including one involving New York’s Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty, in which more than $9 million was stolen from the charity by its CEO, a close friend of Silver’s, whose wife is the Speaker’s chief of staff. In other scandals, involving charges of sexual harassment and official corruption, Silver was accused of using his power and influence to protect members of the Assembly from prosecution.
New York politicians have a long-standing reputation for corruption, with occasional legal entanglements when their activities became especially egregious (see: “Arrests of New York politicians reveal systemic corruption”). Research by Citizens Union found that 28 New York lawmakers have left office because of criminal or ethical issues since 2000. Over the past six years, six New York legislative leaders have faced prosecution, including Republican Joseph Bruno, the former Senate Majority Leader.
The state government in Albany has long been a watchword for political corruption, summed up in the slogan “pay to play,” as business interests ante up for legislators who steer state contracts to them. It has long been an open secret that Silver and other legislators appeared to have incomes much higher than could be accounted for in official disclosures, but nothing was done about it.
Claiming to take up a fight against political corruption among legislators, Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo established the “Moreland Commission” in 2013, a supposedly independent body to carry out investigations. After an initial show of support and cooperation, the legislature quickly moved to mount legal opposition to the inquiry.
A year later, Cuomo abruptly dissolved the commission without credible explanation. At the time, it was suggested that the investigation was getting too close to Cuomo allies or other powerful figures, perhaps even to Cuomo himself. A subpoena from the commission to Silver was pending, but had been stalled by legal action, when Cuomo acted. The US attorney’s office then took over the commission’s records and proceeded with the investigations, leading to Silver’s indictment.
Bharara is reportedly looking into whether Cuomo attempted to influence the commission. The governor spent $100,000 on a criminal defense attorney to represent him on this issue.
Cuomo has suggested, in an interview with the editorial board of the Daily News, that his disbanding of the Moreland Commission may have been, in part, a way of circumventing the legislature’s legal maneuvers against the investigation, thus allowing the federal prosecutor to move forward with the Silver investigation.
Silver has been associated with certain union bureaucracies, including the teachers union, that are currently at odds with Cuomo over the division of the loot in Albany.
Whatever the exact nature of the backstabbing maneuvers, Silver seems to have been done in politically, although he may well escape any legal consequences for his actions. This was the case for Bruno, the former state senate leader, whose corruption conviction was reversed, following a 2010 state supreme court ruling based on the contention that, in effect, influence peddling is standard practice for politicians.
US Attorney Bharara is clearly conscious of boundaries that must not be crossed. He is quoted in the Daily News saying, “We are not looking to criminalize ordinary politics. Nor are we demanding that elected officials be virtuous or vice-free.”
In other words, the normal practices of class rule, including the routine buying and selling of political patronage, are acceptable. Only when such activities become so egregious as to discredit the entire political system must examples be made.
Political corruption is not the result of a few, or even many, “bad apples,” as loathsome as such individuals may be. Rather, it is an intrinsic part of the system of power and privilege of the capitalist class.

ISIS kills Japanese hostage

Ben McGrath

A video purportedly showing the death of one of the two Japanese hostages held by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was released late Saturday night. The other hostage is still being held by the group, which has reduced its ransom demand from $100 million per person to a prisoner exchange involving a woman held in Jordan over a 2005 terror bombing.
The newest video is a still picture with audio showing one of the hostages, reporter Kenji Goto, holding a picture of the other hostage, Haruna Yukawa, beheaded.
The accompanying audio is Goto speaking in English and issuing ISIS’s new demand for the release of Sajida al-Rishawi. “It is simple. You give them Sajida and I will be released,” he says.
Al-Rishawi is connected to the bombings of hotels in Jordan in 2005 that left 57 people dead. Her husband and two others carried out the attack, but apparently the bomb she was carrying failed to detonate. Jordanian authorities sentenced her to death for her role. The attack was supposedly organized by Al Qaeda in Iraq, one of the organizations from which ISIS itself emerged.
Questions were raised about the authenticity of the video. Rita Katz, head of the SITE Intelligence Group, a company with ties to the US government, said, “The video was made in a different style than the other beheading videos, seemingly rushed and even lacking the usual attribution to al-Furqan Media Foundation, a primary media arm of the group.” Katz confirmed the video was real, however.
Yukawa was captured last year in August in Syria. He had hoped to become a military contractor, but was unprepared for work in the region, according to Goto, who met Yukawa and helped him enter Iraq last spring. When news of Yukawa’s capture reached Goto, who had gone back to Japan, he felt compelled to return to Syria to help Yukawa last October.
The families and friends of the two men expressed their anguish on Sunday. Yukawa’s father, Shoichi Yukawa said, “All I can do is remain calm. I hope that the photograph (held by Goto) is not my son’s.”
Junko Ishido, Goto’s mother, appealed for the Japanese government to meet the ransom demand. “I can only pray as a mother for his release,” Ishido added. “If I could offer my life I would plead that my son be released. It would be a small sacrifice on my part.”
As officials worked to confirm the video’s authenticity, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Barack Obama denounced the killing. Both leaders are intent on exploiting the hostage crisis and Yukawa’s murder to escalate US and Japanese imperialist interventions in the Middle East and around the world.
Speaking to the Japanese NHK public broadcaster on Sunday, Abe said: “We will never give in to terrorism, and we will actively contribute to the peace and stability of the world together with the international community. We are not wavering at all on this policy.”
Obama stated, “The United States strongly condemns the brutal murder of Japanese citizen Haruna Yukawa by the terrorist group.”
The Japanese government is intent on using the hostage crisis to escalate its rehabilitation and legitimization of Japanese militarism, even at the expense of the hostages’ lives. Tokyo broke up efforts to negotiate the release of the two hostages, seizing the passports of Ko Nakata and Kosuke Tsuneoka, whom ISIS had contacted and asked to come to the Middle East as mediators on Yukawa’s and Goto’s behalf. Both men have continued to offer to help negotiate a settlement, but the Japanese government has refused.
The United States has been pushing Japan to expand its role in the Middle East in support of the US war drive. Just one day before the release of the first ISIS video demanding a ransom, Japan’s Defense Ministry announced that it would increase its operations at Japan’s single overseas base, in Djibouti.
The ministry said, “From the perspectives of cooperation with the U.S. military and NATO forces and sharing terrorism-related information with these forces, it will be to Japan’s benefit to increase functions of the base.” Japanese imperialism is also searching for a stronger foothold in the region, from which Japan gets 83 percent of its oil imports.
Abe’s push to remilitarize Japan is widely opposed by the Japanese people, and this hostage crisis provides the government with the perfect pretext to continue its militarist drive.
The Obama administration has encouraged Abe to pass new laws that help Tokyo bypass Article 9 of its own constitution, which bans Japan from engaging in overseas wars. These laws, set to be presented to the Japanese Diet in April, correspond to new military guidelines drawn by Washington and Tokyo last October to lay down the two countries’ joint roles.
The new guidelines call for Japan to play a larger role in assisting the United States militarily throughout the world. Abe has regularly stated that Japan could take part in minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East as just one example of aid Tokyo could render to US imperialism’s war efforts.
Abe and his cabinet will doubtless seize on Yukawa’s death to pass these new military laws. Despite initially claiming he would not do so, Abe utilized the 2013 hostage crisis at the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria, in which 10 Japanese were killed, to pass a law allowing the Japanese military to enter a conflict zone if the pretext of a rescue mission exists.
Last summer, Abe’s cabinet also approved a reinterpretation of Japan’s constitution to allow the government to send Japanese forces overseas. Dubbed “collective self-defense,” the reinterpretation marked a major turning point for Japanese imperialism, removing constraints on the military that had existed since the end of World War II.
Small protests against Abe have also occurred with many people blaming the prime minister for Yukawa’s death. About 100 people gathered on Sunday outside Abe’s residence demanding that he rescue Goto.
Kenji Kunitomi, one of the protesters, denounced Abe, saying, “This happened when Prime Minister Abe was visiting Israel. I think there’s a side to this, where they may have taken it as a form of provocation, possibly a big one.”

At least 18 dead as Egyptian military regime violently represses demonstrations

Thomas Gaist

Egyptian security forces killed at least 18 demonstrators and wounded at least 80 more Sunday as protests rocked Cairo, Giza, Kafr al-Sheikh and Menya.
Security forces carried out mass arrests, detaining at least 134 demonstrators, according to statement by the Minister of the Interior, and deployed liberal amounts of tear gas and “birdshot.” Demonstrators shouted slogans calling for a new revolution and the end of the military junta that seized power during the summer of 2013.
Heavily armed police and military Special Forces teams as well as undercover agents dressed in civilian clothes fired on protestors sporadically throughout the day, and gunfire could be heard well into the night, according to eyewitnesses cited by Reuters. Military vehicles continued to sweep the city as night fell. A number of government buildings were set ablaze by groups of protestors, according to state media.
The apparent murder Saturday of 32-year-old Shaimaa el-Sabagh as she marched in a demonstration commemorating the nearly 900 Egyptians killed during the mass struggles of 2011 has poured fuel on simmering popular hatred of the military dictatorship headed by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Video footage shows commando-style security forces aiming rifles at el-Sabagh moments before she was killed by gunshots to her face and back.
The US-backed al-Sisi regime has responded to the protests with police state measures, imposing fortified checkpoints and dispatching heavily armed patrols across the capital. Top security officials justified the measures by claiming that scores of roadside bombs were found around the capital during the weekend.
Martial law measures imposed by the military in Sinai, including a strictly enforced curfew, will continue for at least another three months, the government announced Sunday.
Since the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government in 2013, the military regime has sought to suppress the struggles of the Egyptian workers through military-police terror. After banning public protests, it has violently repressed attempts to defy the ban, slaughtering dozens during demonstrations last year commemorating the third anniversary of the 2011 uprising.
The government handed down death sentences to more than 1,400 political prisoners in 2014, while imprisoning tens of thousands more in secret prisons and torture centers.
Repression in Egypt has been applauded by international investors and by the major imperialist powers. Among the measures implemented by the regime on behalf of big business and foreign capital was a steep cut to fuel subsidies. Al-Sisi and his top officers are now especially concerned about the impact of continued turmoil on an upcoming international investors symposium to be held in March.
Islamist parties including the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) participated in Sunday’s demonstrations, reportedly spreading the slogan that they are “reviving the revolution.” The MB, however, has already demonstrated its hostility to the working class in Egypt and throughout the Middle East. During the government of Mohamed Mursi, the MB supported US and Israeli military operations in the region and planned to impose austerity measures in league with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The release from prison of Hosni Mubarak’s two sons, scheduled for next week, has been delayed, according to Egyptian media reports published Sunday. The brothers are charged with embezzling millions of dollars in state funds.
The Mubarak brothers, who are appealing a four-year prison sentence handed down in May, were due for release under laws limiting the length of pretrial detention. It appears likely that the decision to delay their release was taken to avoid a further political provocation. Nonetheless, it is safe to assume that the al-Sisi regime plans to secure the brothers’ acquittal, as it has done for the former dictator himself. Hosni Mubarak received only a three-year sentence in the same case, which was overturned by the Egyptian Supreme Court earlier this month.
Mubarak was already cleared last November of murder charges in relation to the nearly 900 civilians killed by his security forces during the revolutionary struggles of 2011. He may be released at any time from the elite military hospital where he is currently held.

Imperialist mourning for King Abdullah

Patrick Martin

In its disgusting fawning and hypocrisy, little could top the outpouring of praise from the major imperialist powers in response to the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died Friday at age 90.
Tributes have poured in from governments around the world. In London, the British government flew flags at half-mast at government buildings and at Buckingham Palace, prior to a trip by Prince Charles and Prime Minister David Cameron to Saudi Arabia over the weekend.
As for the US, the Obama administration announced that it was upending the travel plans of the president, currently in India, to make a special trip to Riyadh to visit Abdullah’s successor, his 79-year-old half-brother, Salman. The White House issued a statement noting the “genuine and warm friendship” between President Obama and the departed monarch.
It is perhaps a fitting expression of the nature of the government he will rule that Salman, the sixth of the sons of Ibn Saud, founder of the semi-feudal regime, is reportedly afflicted with Alzheimer’s. Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, wrote last month, “Salman’s brain is evidently ravaged by dementia. Visitors report that after a few minutes of conversation, he becomes incoherent.”
It is, of course, possible for a ruler of such diminished capacity to occupy a figurehead role for a significant length of time, as Ronald Reagan did throughout most of his presidency. But these reports make it clear why it was all-important, in the view of the White House, Pentagon and State Department, that the new king’s first action was to confirm as his successor and crown prince the youngest son of Ibn Saud, Prince Muqrin, age 69.
Even more critical, from the standpoint of American imperialism, was the designation of Prince Mohammed ibn Nayef, the interior minister, as deputy crown prince and presumed successor to Muqrin. At age 55, the prince is the first potential occupant of the throne chosen from the generation of grandchildren of Ibn Saud. As chief of Saudi Arabia’s antiterrorism operations, he has worked closely with the American CIA and Pentagon. The Wall Street Journal noted in a column, “Prince Mohammed was long seen as Washington’s preferred candidate among the younger princes who aspired to be king.”
The close collaboration between Washington and the Saudi regime speaks volumes about the nature of American intervention in the Middle East. Despite claims by countless administrations that US foreign policy promotes democracy, American imperialism has long relied on the most reactionary and oppressive regime in the Middle East. For 70 years, there has been an agreement that the US will back the Saudi monarchy, arming it to the teeth against both domestic and external threats, in return for Saudi oil supplies and Saudi backing to US foreign policy generally.
While for more than a decade US administrations have embraced the “war on terror,” now described by the Obama administration as the “struggle against violent extremism,” the basis of American foreign policy in the Middle East has been an alliance with a state that espouses Islamic fundamentalism and finances and arms right-wing Islamic fundamentalist groups throughout the region.
In the 1980s, the Reagan administration and Saudi Arabia jointly sponsored the Afghan mujaheddin, the guerrilla force of Islamic fundamentalists recruited by the CIA and sanctioned and paid for by Saudi Arabia, to fight the Soviet-backed regime in Afghanistan. The US-Saudi collaboration in Afghanistan gave rise to Al Qaeda, headed by Osama bin Laden, son of a construction magnate made wealthy by his contracts in Saudi Arabia. Saudi money—including some from the monarchy itself—financed the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, and 15 of the 19 suicide hijackers were Saudis.
But the Bush administration whitewashed these connections, first invading Afghanistan, then fabricating a connection between Saddam Hussein and 9/11 in order to justify its criminal invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003. While the Saudis offered verbal opposition to the US intervention, (because they regarded Saddam Hussein as a bulwark against Iran), the US military had full access to Saudi bases to carry out military and intelligence operations during the war.
More recently, Saudi Arabia backed the US-NATO war against Libya and intervened heavily within Syria as part of the US-orchestrated campaign to destabilize the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is allied with Iran, the Saudis’ main regional rival.
The US-Saudi alliance has been an unmitigated disaster for the people of the Middle East. Iraq, Syria, Libya and now Yemen, on Saudi Arabia’s southern border, have been destroyed as functioning societies, devastated by military onslaught (either directly, as in Iraq and Libya, indirectly as in Syria, or remotely, via drone missiles, as in Yemen).
Saudi military forces invaded the sheikdom of Bahrain—the headquarters for US naval operations in the Persian Gulf—to suppress popular opposition to the ruling family. In 2013, Washington and Riyadh backed the coup of General al-Sisi in Egypt and the reimposition of military dictatorship on the most populous Arab state.
In Syria, Saudi dollars and Saudi-supplied American weapons helped fuel the rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), leading to last summer’s debacle, when ISIS fighters conquered most of western Iraq, including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul. Now Saudi pilots have joined in the US-led bombing campaign in Syria, the forerunner of a much broader and bloodier conflict.
The latest example of US-Saudi collaboration is the Saudi-led decision by OPEC to reject any reduction in oil production as prices have plunged. This action is aimed at bankrupting Iran and Russia, the two main allies of Assad in Syria, by slashing the oil export revenues on which the governments of both countries depend.
This is something of a double-edged sword, however. In the US, the oil price plunge has devastated the fracking industry and begun to create mass unemployment in Texas, North Dakota and other states. In Saudi Arabia, the drop in oil prices has put a hole of nearly $40 billion in the national budget, forcing it to draw down international reserves.
Both poverty and unemployment are spreading in the country, despite its oil wealth. A recently cited CIA country study estimated that 506,000 young people will enter the job market in Saudi Arabia in 2015, where more than half the population of 27 million is under 25 years of age. Given that only 1.7 million out of the 8.4 million wage earners in Saudi Arabia are actually Saudi citizens—the vast majority are immigrants—the regime faces what one imperialist strategist described as “an incredible challenge in terms of internal stability.”
The most reactionary force in the region—the Saudi monarchy—is aligned with the most reactionary force on the planet—US imperialism. The result is a noxious combination of economic convulsions, widening sectarian and tribal conflicts, and escalating imperialist military intervention.

Syriza wins Greek elections

Alex Lantier

In a broad electoral repudiation of the policies of the European Union (EU) and the outgoing government of conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) took first place in legislative elections yesterday in Greece.
According to initial projections by the Greek Interior Ministry, Syriza won 36.34 percent of the vote, more than projected and far surpassing Samaras’s New Democracy (ND) party’s 27.84 percent. Thanks to the 50-seat bonus given to the party with the largest number of votes, Syriza is expected to have 149 seats in parliament compared to ND’s 76. This is two short of the 151 needed for an absolute majority in the 300-seat parliament, so it appears Syriza will have to look for partners to form a governmental coalition.
The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is projected to take third with 6.30 percent of the vote (17 seats), the To Potami (River) party 6.03 percent (16 seats) and the Stalinist Greek Communist Party (KKE) 5.47 percent (15 seats). The social-democratic PASOK got only 4.72 percent (13 seats) and the Independent Greeks, a split-off of ND, 4.68 percent (13 seats).
Voters at the polls denounced EU austerity policies, which have led to economic collapse on a scale unseen in Europe since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Since 2009, job and budget cuts have thrown millions of Greeks into unemployment, deprived them of health care, cut Greece’s economic output by 25 percent and wages even further, and pushed youth unemployment to 60 percent.
The electoral repudiation of the Greek capitalist class’s traditional parties of rule, PASOK and ND, reflects mass outrage with austerity dictated by the banks. However, Syriza is a bourgeois party that is committed to the EU, the euro and the defense of capitalism. While it has made a few vague promises about improving Greek life, it has been engaged in intense discussion behind the scenes aimed at reaching an accommodation with the European banks.
In a victory speech delivered at Athens University, Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said he would find a “new viable solution” for Greece and Europe. “The troika, that is the past,” Tsipras said, referring to the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which together arranged austerity policies with governments in Athens.
However, Tsipras promptly promised to work with Greece’s lenders, the most important of which are the agencies making up the “troika.” He said that the Greek government would be “ready to negotiate with our lenders a mutually acceptable solution” and would “prove all Cassandras wrong. There will be no conflict with partners.”
These comments echoed previous pledges that a Syriza government would “maintain a balanced budget, and will commit to quantitative targets.”
Tsipras’s main aim is to make some sort of deal with the banks of Europe, including a revision of the terms of the repayment of Greek debt. Indeed, there are sections of the ruling class in the United States and Europe that are concerned that such a revision is necessary in order to ensure that Greek bonds can be repaid.
Officials in Germany, which has led the campaign against any let-up in austerity measures, stressed that there should be no abatement in the attack on Greek workers. Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, Germany’s powerful central bank, insisted that the Greek government should not “make promises that the country cannot afford.”
All discussions over the course of policy are taking place within the framework of defending capitalism in Greece and throughout Europe. At most, Tsipras is hoping for some concession that he can hail as a victory in order to bide time and prepare a further attack on the working class.
The main challenge facing the working class in Greece and internationally is to grasp the full dimensions of the political struggle opening up before it. In a Syriza government, workers face a determined enemy. Even Syriza’s own Thessaloniki program, from which it is preparing to beat a hasty retreat in talks with its European “partners,” pledged only 2 billion euros in new social spending, whereas the EU has cut over 60 billion euros from Greek budgets since 2009.
In the run-up to the elections, Syriza officials were busy behind the scenes reassuring journalists, economists and politicians that an election victory posed no danger to the banks. European news site EurActiv wrote: “Key to Syriza’s ascent, party officials say privately, is a calculated effort to moderate the radical leftist rhetoric that prompted Der Spiegel to name Tsipras among the most dangerous men in Europe in 2012.”
Former Syriza leader Alekos Alavanos stressed that the party would pose no threat to the banks in an interview with the Financial Times of London two days ago. “Even Mr Tsipras’ predecessor as Syriza chief, Alekos Alavanos, questions whether the party’s rhetoric matches its intentions,” the FT concluded, citing Alavanos’s remark that Syriza “now is a moderate party.”
Economist Jean-Marc Daniel reassured France’s 20 Minutes that Syriza would do no long-term harm to the stock portfolios of the affluent and the super-rich. “The stock market does not usually like the beginning of ‘left’ governments, but it picks up gradually as they abandon their program. What is most striking about Alexis Tsipras, is that he is already diluting his program,” Daniel said.
If representatives of finance capital state so openly and with such confidence that Syriza is no threat to them, this is because Syriza has been thoroughly vetted by the banks and intelligence agencies. Since Syriza emerged as a major electoral force in Greece in 2012, Tsipras has met publicly with the Greek army and repeatedly traveled to the major capitals of the euro zone and to Washington—after declaring himself an admirer of President Barack Obama’s economic policies.
No solution to the crisis facing the Greek working class can be found within the framework of the pro-capitalist and nationalist program of Syriza. What is required is the building of an independent political movement of the working class, based on an internationalist and socialist perspective.