Wealth Creation and Asset Management

F. Eugene Mayo

In order to accumulate wealth, income typically has to figure into a viable equation. Income is what people earn from labor, dividends, interest and rents or royalties generated from property ownership. If income is derived from such investment vehicles, recipients have reached a level of understanding that would cause them not to end up broke and downtrodden once their employment years have ceased. Wealth building is a gradual process that occurs from saving, investing and sacrificing daily, monthly and annually.

Stand your ground and declare an embargo on going to shopping centers and shopping on line. Refrain from succumbing to false advertising of lower prices being offered on merchandise on Black Friday, when in fact prices on merchandise are increased. Some suggestions have been included to help you save and avoid being a promiscuous spender.

1.ENERGY CONSERVATION: Americans constitute 5% of world population, but consume 24% of world energy according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007. Start in your place of domicile by turning off lights and electrical gadgets when not in use. Turn down heating and cooling systems when your home is not occupied due to work days or vacations. If you are gone for some forty to fifty percent of a typical day and your heating and cooling plant are not operative during that period you are likely to see a significant savings in utility cost. These savings reflect money that could be placed in your savings account at end of each month. Teach all family members to turn off energy consuming items when not in use because money saved in utility expenditures is more money you and your family has available for saving , investing and wealth building and asset protection.

2.VEHICLES:Transportation cost (insurance, petroleum, maintenance, payments) is by far second largest cost item in a typical family budget. Automobile manufactures count on individuals keeping a vehicle for some 3.5 years before they dispose of same Considering exorbitant cost of vehicles with financing being in the 7 to 8 year range unless one makes a substantial down payment trading in a 3 to 4 year time frame could result in one creating an abundance of debt from trading up for new vehicles. When acquiring a vehicle, think in terms of owning that vehicle for ten years or 200,000 miles. However, of utmost importance is retiring that debt obligation in three years or less. A vehicle is the most non appreciable item in a typical house hold budget and each time you make a payment that vehicle depreciates in value. Save money to pay cash for your vehicle and create a viable relationship with an honest, competent, courteous and reliable mechanic is essential.

3.SAVINGS & INVESTING: Utilizing ten percent of your gross income for saving and investing is ideal to avoid impoverishment.  By all means it must be consistent and start early because it is a great benefactor when accumulating wealth. The more you save the better you can be prepared for unanticipated expenses that may come your way to disrupt your life styles. Fifty percent of all marriages end up in divorce and a substantial percentage of marriages are broken because of money or lack of money to meet debt obligations. One of the basic principles aspiring individuals should crystalize before marriage is consider current income, expenses assets or debt  If Mr. or Ms. RFM (right for me) is really clicking each of you will survive more abundantly when positive cash flow is a way of life.

4. GIFT GIVING: Throughout the year occasions arise that require expenditures for a gift and this is more renowned at Christmas than any other time of year. If you are engrossed with a group of co-workers friends or associates to exchange gifts, establish a limit for amount to be paid for that gift. Whatever you do during this period don’t create debt that will be with you for years to come or spend money you don’t have.   In purchasing gifts, place an amount by that recipients name even though you may not know what item will be. Once you have established amount for each person stay within that budget limit you have established in advance. Don’t spend money you don’t have or spend money to get a discount or a bonus. Don’t wait until the last minute and rush to buy something because Christmas is just one day and the item is likely to be substantially discounted immediately after Christmas. As always, lay–a-ways can be a good mode of payment where permissible.

5. MARKETING: Business enterprises spend in excess of $275 billion each year attempting to influence consumers to buy products they don’t need or want, but to improve that business bottom line. Black advertisers partake very sparsely in this revenue stream and Black and Brown people expend in excess of $2 trillion dollars due significantly to advertising. The best option for intelligent consumers is to turn off advertising commercials due to lack of common good that item being promoted can be to you and your family. If you don’t have the item as a planned purchase, ignore the advertisement.  Alcoholic beverages, vehicles, tobacco products, beverages, jewelry, and apparel items are heavily advertised to minority groups but each has little or no appreciable value. 

6. AS CONSUMERS OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES: Black and Brown people must become aggressively involved in voting and becoming apprised relative to what duties government and elected officials and their associates perform. Government exists to assist individuals that help politicians get elected to serve their constituents. They have political privileges and benefits regarding employment, contracts, sitting on boards and commissions and serving as department heads to establish and interpret policies and procedures.

Typically these policies and procedures fail to embrace your views and concerns if you are void of capital or positive cash flow. Appointees to a parole board could determine if your son or grandson is released on parole or remains incarcerated for a crime he may or may not have committed. Federal Reserve Board members can change interest rates that result in you paying a higher interest rate on home and automobile loans and credit card debt. Local planning and zoning boards could vote to permit a strip joint within a 500 foot radius of your home, resulting in pandemonium at all hours of evening that prevent you from sitting on your porch and ultimately driving down property values

7.ESTABLISH SMALL BUSINESS ENTERPRISES:Owner operated business enterprises typically generate more income to proprietors than jobs working for others. Don’t be reluctant to establish and build your own business and establish your customer base. Clinton Mosley owner and operator of A Good A/C Company has been in heating and air condition business better than 20 years, Does no marketing, and has an abundance of business. Michael Kanu, owner and operator of Michelle’s Home Style Buffet, has two well established eating facilities that serve delicious meals and has been in business for some ten years, and continue to grow. Ted Preston Smith owner/operator of Uniquely Yours Florist for better than 25 years in Louisville Kentucky. Recently retired from his floral business. Each of these business enterprises provided and continues to offer prompt courteous and reliable service at reasonable prices.to their customers in very competitive industries.

Each took entrepreneurial risk, invested their own capital and make employment opportunities available for a vast number of individuals. Each is a visionary in a competitive market that gives more service than expected to customers and are embraced by their markets.

Individuals financially depleted at end of their careers can excel and survive, but it must be on their own terms and accord. Economically misguided individuals are good citizens and outstanding Americans. However to become renowned and transcend from consumers to producer’s they must commence to make economic sacrifices to bolster their lives and families over extended periods of time. Considering political climate in country at this juncture, governmental assistance is not on the drawing board, and if so, it’s not likely to reach fruition due to political gridlock. Now is time to do for self and work on your economic salvation. Reportedly, the poor will always be with us, but you can determine who that person will be, and put forth a gallant effort it’s not you or any of your family members.

Uganda Pension Liberalisation Bill: A Critique

Morrison Rwakakamba

While reading the budget for 2014/2015 financial year, Uganda’s Minister of Finance Planning and Economic Development, Maria Kiwanuka announced that Retirements Benefits Sector Liberalization Bill currently in Parliament would be enacted into law with immediacy. The bill is aimed to provide for liberalization of the retirement benefits sector; to provide for fair competition among licensed retirement benefits schemes for mandatory contributions; to provide for mandatory contribution and benefits; to provide for voluntary contributions and voluntary schemes; to regulate occupational retirement benefits schemes; to provide for licensing of umbrella retirement benefits schemes; to provide for the portability and transfer of accrued benefits, to provide for innovation of new retirement products and services – and most of all; to repeal the National Social Security Fund Act Cap 222.

In effect, the  bill seeks to put workers money on open market – with the usual seductive assumption that workers will have unfettered freedom to save their money in a scheme where they get ‘higher return’ on their savings. Yet looking at global experiences, this argument is flawed and seeks to accentuate shadow markets. For example, these fancy ‘high return’ investments literally collapsed the United States and European Economies in 2009, requiring Government bail outs of their leading banks using taxpayer’s money. The US and EU were unable to protect savers from systematic failures of their sophisticated securities markets that sought to make higher returns without creating value until the bubble burst.  The biggest losers were pension funds that held the biggest investments on those markets.

Will the minister deliver on her promise in her budget speech for 2015/2016 financial year- five months from now? I really don’t think so- because there are many unanswered questions in this contentious bill that I tackle chronologically in this article. For example, does the bill entrench transparency through disclosure and access to information? Free information flow is critical in the highly sophisticated retirement benefits/pension sector. Members can only enforce their retirement benefits if they have access to timely and simplified information on scheme policies and operations. Information disclosure also enables members to make informed choices and to participate in scheme affairs that affect them. This enhances transparency and accountability which are all key tenets of good governance for any successful business entity. 

For these reasons, it is important for schemes to disclose to existing and potential plan members information on plan investment policies, current investments, scheme expenses, tax implications, actuarial reports, assets owned by the plan, financial position, effect of inflation on benefits and; the formulae for computation of benefits. Unfortunately, beyond the requirement for plans to display annual statement of accounts, the proposed law lacks sufficient provisions on access to material and relevant information.  The law if passed as is will expose unsuspecting plan members to rogue investment policies and decisions which undermine the whole essence of retirement benefits namely- to provide old age replacement income.

Secondly, does this liberalization bill enhance the security of the pension sector? Security means that the promise made to the worker will be fulfilled when that worker is eligible to receive his/her benefits. It has two facets: Strong governance of the sector and Sustainability which refers to whether the sector will have funds to pay beneficiaries when due. NSSF is fully funded, and can pay all member obligations. Why change this? The problem is the Public Service Pension Sector which is in arrears. According to the World Bank study of 2011, the arrears are to the tune of $2.6bn or 16% of Uganda’s GDP. The bill in current form excludes Public Service Pension Sector. This indicates the bill is not keen to enhance security of Uganda’s pension sector.

Third question; does this liberalization bill enhance the coverage of the pension sector? The bill lowers employee threshold from 5 to 1 employee. That will automatically bring in more people whether in a liberalized environment or non-liberalized environment. Do we need a new bill yet this can be accomplished by amending the NSSF Act. The experience of other economies that have liberalized their economies is more telling: Uruguay coverage fell from 55% to 51% - 8 years after pension liberalization reform. Argentina coverage fell from 45% to 40% - 12 years after reform, Bolivia coverage fell from 19% to 15% - 5 years after reform, Columbia coverage from 24% to 22%.- 5 years after reform.  In fact, 6 of the 8 Latin American countries that tried liberalization had either flat or reduced coverage. Liberalization bill, in its current form, is not needed to enhance coverage of the pension sector.

Forth question; does this liberalization bill enhance the effectiveness of the pension sector? Effectiveness refers to the ability to reach members in terms of value, products, and service points, i.e. making actual differences in member lives. The bill opens up new benefits that hitherto, had been excluded including health, education and homeownership. However, these can achieved by amending the NSSF Act. Furthermore, an argument is made that competition will force retirement funds to offer better service and products to members. While there is merit in this argument, we can all agree that Uganda Revenue Authority has improved its services over the years. So has Kampala Capital City Authority and same with Uganda Peoples Defense Forces. Have the foregoing institutions been liberalized to be efficient? What matters is leadership and proper governance. Our members of Parliament should therefore pursue reforms that strengthen governance and efficiency of NSSF instead of seeking to exterminate it.

Fifth question, Does Liberalizing the pension sector increase portability? The issue of portability is being discussed at the East African regional level. The consensus at that level suggests that rather than go for harmonization of laws, reciprocal arrangements are more practical. NSSF Kenya, NSSF Uganda and NSSF Tanzania Acts already have these provisions.We must all understand that occupational schemes are not retirement funds. These are private arrangements between employers and their staff as human resources terminal benefits. They are not transferable to other schemes--neither in Kenya nor in Uganda.

Moving forward, our Parliament should do first things first. i.e. pass the Social Security Policy, from which meaningful reforms of the subsectors can then be made. Secondly, most countries have set a mandatory contribution that is held and invested by national schemes e.g. Malaysia, USA, Kenya, Tanzania, Singapore and South Africa. These national schemes, provide, a basic safety net that is not exposed to the perils of market forces. The mandate of national schemes, include among others, expanding coverage to otherwise unreachable parts of the society- This helps countries meet the International Labor Organization objectives for security and coverage.  Ideally, the law should maintain mandatory contribution of 15%, through existing scheme-NSSF. At a minimum, the basic safety net can be funded with 10% contribution from the employer. 

By and large, Uganda should provide for the amendment of the NSSF Act by incorporating elements of the bill that are good instead of seeking repeal the NSSF Act. Parliament should move quickly to remove bottlenecks that curtail productivity of NSSF e.g. amend NSSF Act to include coverage of the informal sector, harmonize the laws with the rest of the region and provide for a more practical mechanism that will enable retirement schemes participate fully in the long term development of the country using safe instruments that provide reasonable returns to members. For example, Malaysia- Roads, the Port, Housing; Tanzania- Dodoma University, Dar es Salaam - Chalinze Dual Carriage way, Mkuranga Power Plant; Singapore-Roads, Kenya: Housing: Nyayo Embakasi. All the foregoing was done through direct borrowings, equity investments and infrastructure Bond. Uganda can pick lessons from this.

If NSSF Act is repealed, what happens to worker safeguards that are built in the Act, e.g. interest rate guarantee? Our Parliament should reflect on this and other many questions. In spite of challenges that have dogged NSSF over the years, a clever option would be to strengthen its management and close gaps in NSSF Act. In fact, a 2013 Actuarial Valuation by M/s Callund Consulting of UK confirmed that NSSF is fully funded, with sufficient resources to discharge its liabilities to all its members, with zero expense to the tax payer. If it isn’t very broken- why overhaul it? Just repair it. The Economist (Jan 11th 2014, Page 59) reported that because New York’s funds do not manage any assets themselves, they paid $472m to outside managers and consultants last year—about $269m more than Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, which manages about 80% of its assets in-house. Are Ugandan workers ready to go New York way?

The danger of escalation in Ukraine

Alex Lantier

Since last week's announcement that Washington may directly arm the pro-NATO Ukrainian regime in Kiev, the rhetoric of the US government and its European allies has become increasingly reckless and extreme. Amid all the bellicose statements, no one is stating clearly what the cost in human lives of a broader conflict over Ukraine might be, what limits it would have, or whether it could escalate into a nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO.

At the Munich Security Conference, US Senator Lindsey Graham made clear that a major war could erupt but called for Washington to arm Kiev anyway. “I don't know how this ends if you give [the Ukrainian regime] a defensive capability. But I know this: I will feel better, because when my nation was needed to stand up to the garbage and stand for freedom, I stood for freedom. They may die. They may lose. But all I can tell you is that if somebody doesn't push back better, we're all going to lose.”

Polish parliamentary speaker Radoslaw Sikorski proposed threatening Russia militarily until it panics and backs down. “Putin has shown us that Ukraine cannot win militarily. Now we must show him that he cannot win militarily either,” he said.

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank argued for arming the Kiev regime: “A credible US/allied commitment to bolster the Ukrainian military while tightening sanctions will help signal to Moscow that it risks a political and military catastrophe ... ”

Writing in the New York Times, columnist Roger Cohen demanded that the US plunge billions of dollars into arming Ukraine against Russia. He wrote, “There is a language Moscow understands: antitank missiles, battlefield radars, reconnaissance drones. Bolster the Ukrainian Army with them and other arms. Change Putin's cost-benefit analysis. There are risks, but no policy is risk-free.”

Either the political establishment and media are drunk on their own propaganda, and believe that they can get away with the equivalent in international diplomacy of shouting fire in a crowded movie theater, or they mean what they say. In this case, they are moving to launch a major land war in Europe that could lead to thermonuclear war between NATO and Russia that would cost billions of lives.

Whatever the intent of those making such statements, the threats are being taken very seriously by their intended targets. Yesterday, the chief of the Kremlin's security council, Nikolai Patrushev, said that he views the NATO intervention in Ukraine as challenge to the very existence of Russia. “The Americans are trying to draw the Russian Federation into an interstate military conflict, to achieve regime change through the events in Ukraine and to ultimately dismember our country,” he said.

Patrushev, a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned that if Washington decided to arm the Kiev regime, the conflict “would escalate only further.”

The Russian regime's fears are being fanned by leading US strategists, who have stated that their goal in arming the Kiev regime is to trap Russia in ruinous urban warfare costing millions of lives, in order to humiliate Russia and break it as major power that can challenge the United States.

Speaking last year at the Wilson Center think tank, former Carter administration National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warned against the emergence in Russia of “an ambitious outlook which justifies… the conclusion that Russia is a world power.” Ukraine, he believed, could “evolve not only into an enduring problem for Russia in that respect, but represent also the permanent loss of a huge swath of territory, the greatest loss of territory suffered by Russia in the course of its imperial expansion. This may in turn eventually begin to work against this new mythology regarding Russia's place and role in the world.”

Brzezinski added, “It would be much better to be open about it and to say to the Ukrainians and to those who may threaten Ukraine that if Ukrainians resist, they will have weapons ... And in my view, they should be weapons designed particularly to permit the Ukrainians to engage in effective urban warfare of resistance. There's no point trying to arm the Ukrainians to take on the Russian army in the open field, thousands of tanks, an army organized for the application of overwhelming force.”

Brzezinski explained: “If the major cities, say Kharkiv, say Kiev, were to resist and street fighting became a necessity, it would be prolonged and costly. And the fact of the matter is, and this is where the timing of this whole crisis is important, Russia is not yet ready to undertake that kind of effort. It would be too costly in blood, paralyzingly costly in finances.”

It is a basic adage of military science that war is the most unpredictable of human activities.

One can think of countless circumstances in which such a plan as outline by Brzezinski, which itself involves the loss of millions of lives in Ukraine’s major cities, would rapidly lead to a major escalation. Russia may not choose to only engage in house-to-house fighting in Kiev and western Ukraine, but to strike at NATO forces and satellite regimes throughout Eastern Europe, such as in the Baltics, where NATO is treaty-bound to intervene. If this fighting goes badly for NATO in these areas, where Russia has overwhelming military superiority in conventional weapons, will NATO retaliate with nuclear weapons?

The question that finally arises is: What is the objective source of the ruthlessness and recklessness of the NATO powers' foreign policy? The last two regimes that adopted such aggressive and suicidal policies were Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, in the years before World War II. Their policies reflected a deep systemic crisis, as isolated ruling elites, facing social tensions and international contradictions for which they had no rational solutions, staked everything on war.

There is a dangerous parallel between the recklessness of US policy and those of Hitler or Hirohito. Were the Kremlin to capitulate and work out some deal—as some reports late last night indicated might take place before today's talks in Minsk—this will only prove to be the starting point for a new round of demands by the United States.

The situation is extraordinarily dangerous. Even if some short-term solution is patched together, this will only be a brief interlude to a renewal of the crisis.

Africa 2015: Is it really moving forward?

 Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma

Whilst the rest of the world has the luxury to choose to stay where they are or move East, West, South or North, Africa has neither the time nor the choice: we must move in one direction —and that is forward and upwards! Fifteen years ago, as the world welcomed the new millennium, Africa was referred to as the 21st’s Century’s development challenge at best and a hopeless continent at worst. As Africans, we chose to see the start of the millennium as the start of the African century.

We should however be aware of the new global threats such as terrorism, insecurity and climate change that also threaten the African Century. On the one side of our continent we have a drought in the Sahel, whereas in the eastern side we have floods in Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia.

Terrorism, in particular the brutality of Boko Haram against our people, the senseless killings, the destruction of property, the enslavement and sale of our people, our girls kidnapped and married and the terrorization of villages are a threat to our collective safety, security and development. This, along with the senseless killings of our people, has now spread beyond Nigeria to Cameroon, Chad and Niger and requires a response that is collective, effective and decisive to achieve the desired results.

As we discuss the situations in Somalia, Libya, Mali, South Sudan and DRC, we should remind ourselves that on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the OAU, we vowed that we shall not bequeathed war and violence to the next generation of Africans. We also need a coordinated and collective responses to other threats such as modern slavery in the guise of human trafficking; poaching, illegal logging and fishing, and the destruction and plunder of African natural resources.

It is imperative that we deny space to those who are bent on destroying the lives and prospects of Africans. This will require concerted efforts to unite our people. The core of our solution rests in our ability to speedily champion tolerant, accountable, democratic and inclusive political cultures, and inclusive social and economic development.

Despite these challenges, and even as downward gale-force winds continue to buffet the world, Africa has been climbing, a step at a time, up the steep cliff towards peace, prosperity and the restoration of the dignity of our people.

It was this resolve to be in charge of our destiny, which informed our decision in the 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration to develop Agenda 2063 “through a people-driven process for the realization of our vision for an integrated, people-centred, prosperous Africa at peace with itself.” We are confident that the aspirations in Agenda 2063 reflects the voices of the African people and her Diaspora, united in diversity, young and old, men and women, from all walks of life.

2015 is also 60 years since the 1955 Bandung Asian-African conference, a turning point of world history when for the first time representatives of the former colonized nations united and proposed alternatives to a world order dominated by superpowers. Sixty years on, the issues that served before Bandung - of peaceful coexistence amongst nations, the struggle for development and a just world order - are still relevant today, albeit in a changed world, with its threats of extremism and intolerance, of disease, inequality between and within nations, feminization of poverty, gender-based violence and climate change. But, it is also a world of opportunities with technological advances that can help leapfrog development, and changes in the economic landscape of the world. It is this changing world - with threats and opportunities - that Africa navigates as it finalizes its vision for the next fifty years.

Our generations of Africans, young and old, men and women, face the challenge to fulfill the mission we set ourselves. I dare say, we are the generations that will eradicate poverty, disease and hunger, as we set out to do in our Common African Position on post-2015 development. We are the generation that shall manage diversity and silence the guns.Agenda 2063 is therefore a call to action – to governments, civil society, academics and private sector; continental and regional bodies, the Diaspora, Africans of all ages, men and women alike.Our aspirations and the concrete programmes in Agenda 2063 are very clear: to diversify our economies and industrialise; to have a skills and entrepreneurial revolution, unleashing the creativity and energy of our young people, and to effect an agricultural and agro-processing transformation, so we can feed ourselves and contribute to feeding the world.

We shall connect Africa through aviation, railways, highways, ICT, energy and the seas. At Malabo, you gave us the mandate to explore Agenda 2063 flagship projects. We are therefore tackling the African infrastructure backlog, utilizing state of the art technology to leapfrog development and through smarter partnerships.

We discussed the importance of energy during the US-Africa Leadership Summit in August last year; the EU-Africa Summit agreed to strengthen co-operation on human development; and we have just concluded a Memorandum of Understanding with China on rail, highways, aviation, and industrialization.

We want to make a special appeal on aviation: that we need to move decisively towards the creation of a single African aviation market, as envisaged by the Yamoussoukro Declaration. It not only makes economic sense, but it is also a key driver towards continental integration. We call on countries to be bold, and be prepared to take the first step.

The large number of elections in the coming year is an opportunity to present our people and countries with a vision for a different tomorrow. We must continue to conduct our elections peacefully, freely and fairly, with respect for the will of the people.

We must invest in our people - their health and education, access to water and sanitation - and build resilience and public health systems in order to defeat diseases like Ebola, as well as malaria and HIV.We once again thank the health workers of the AU-ASEOWA mission, its leader General Julius Oketta, and the governments and peoples of the countries who sent them to help our brothers and sisters in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. We must continue to support them, until these countries are Ebola free.

We thank the African private sector for their partnership with us in the fight against Ebola, and particularly the mobile network operators, who through the continental SMS campaign enables Africans to contribute. Over thirty countries have joined the SMS campaign, and we invite those that have not yet done so to join. We must continue to mobilise our people to contribute to the campaign and to keeping health workers on the ground, until the countries are officially Ebola free. We must also call for the cancellation of their debts, as they prepare for their social and economic recovery.

During the 50th Anniversary Summit, on recommendation from President Obasanjo and his high level panel on alternative sources of funding, the Assembly decided to establish the African Union Foundation.

It is befitting that the year we adopt Agenda 2063, is also the Year of Women’s Empowerment and Development. During 2015, we shall take our continental programme of gender equality and women’s empowerment to a higher level: by ensuring that women are at the table in conflict resolution and peace building; by increasing the representation of women in public life; through the economic empowerment and financial inclusion of women; and by modernizing agriculture, and addressing women’s access to land, technology, markets, infrastructure, and capital.

Agenda 2063 commits to empower young people, as innovators, citizens and entrepreneurs. I am pleased to announce that the Pan African Parliament will cohost the 2014 Annual AU Intergenerational dialogue, which we started during the 50th Anniversary.

In November last year, I was very proud to attend the graduation of the first group of Masters students at the Pan African University Institute for Science and Technology in Nairobi, Kenya. These graduates are an example of what our young people are capable of, if given an opportunity. In their two years at the PAU, they had a near 100% pass rate, published research articles in journals, and one of them registered a patent.They, and thousands of young innovators and entrepreneurs, are an embodiment of what we can achieve if we invest and give Africa’s young men and women the opportunity to help shape the destiny of our continent.

During the Year of Women, we must pay special attention to the girl child, making sure that they are all in and remain in school, that we end child marriages and female genital mutilation, teenage parenthood and harness the potential of both boys and girls.

In conclusion, as we move towards implementation of Agenda 2063, we must adopt collective and cooperative approaches to the threats of peace and security. Let us be relentless about African economic development and strengthen partnerships with the African private sector. I am confident that working together, we shall create a peaceful, integrated, people-centered and prosperous Africa.

Nigeria Elections 2015: Will The Country Sink or Swim?

Anayo Unachukwu

In about two weeks, precisely 14 February 2015, which has now be postponed, Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, will go to the polls to elect its president. The election is perhaps the most closely contested election since its independence from the British in 1960.  

The two presidential front runners--Messrs Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent president of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari of the main opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC)--couldn’t have been more different, in personality, character and what they represent. In spite of these glaring differences, the choice of who becomes the president come February is a Sisyphean task for the average Nigerian electorate. It is unsurprising, given the chequered past of the country, its unenviable present and its uncertain future. Further, one only needs to plumb the surface to reveal the geo-ethno-religious fault-lines that have dogged its every step from its creation in 1914 and the twists and turns of its various attempts at governance. These fault-lines perennially morph into chasms with each successive tussle for the control of the centre--associated with the control of its significant oil resources. Its successive leaders have been driven not by a call to public service or a vision-driven leadership but the ultimate relish--control and administration of the oil wealth to benefit their progenies, friends, families and a coterie committed to the rentier project.

In Mr Buhari, there are hardly agnostic electorates of note. His stern, ascetic physiognomy is the nearest thing to a totem for his party and supporters. Further, his idiosyncratic diagnosis of the problem with Nigeria and the prescribed panacea--moral management of the unruly (which includes almost anyone that dissented)--have been held aloft by friends and supporters as evidence of character and proven track record of the man.

To his foes--mainly Nigerian political elite--he is anachronistic, cantankerous, heavy handed, intolerant of dissent in public and political spaces and cannot be trusted not to rock the political ship that is bereft of a destination; but at least keeps its political passengers cosy and comfy. The more vociferous and visible opponents of Mr Buhari who are overly concerned about what may become of them, given the acrid aroma of corruption that serenade their personal and political life have devised vicious strategy to chip away his carefully cultivated cult-like figure.

His wider intolerance of dissent and opposition is now hitched onto religious wagon of intolerance of the Christian faith. In a closely contested presidential election, and in a country where religion is a major fault-line, that shackle carries with it a significant political liability for Mr Buhari. His past utterances--particularly when taken out of context--as regards adoption of Sharia law and its administration, make it difficult for him to unshackle himself from the label of a bigot.

Of some importance is the question mark and controversy surrounding his educational attainment. Perhaps Mr Buhari and his handlers should have handled the matter better. It goes without saying that Mr Buhari didn’t just crawl out of the woodworks; he was a public officer known to all Nigerians. His keen intellect has never been called to question until now. His records with regards training and attendance of international courses as a military officer are well known to friends and foes.

Further, his opponents have dredged up his record while he was an executive chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF)--a multi-billion dollar government initiative set up by a previous military leader to alleviate poverty of its citizenry and promote economic growth and development across the various regions of the country. They argued that Mr Buhari’s stint at PTF was marred by poor leadership, weak governance and sectional bias that favoured northerners.

The vitriolic and vicious attacks on the integrity of Mr Buhari seem to give credence to the fact that besides Mr Buhari, the distinguishing differences between the two major parties is wafer thin. Further, the paucity of any significant positive campaign by the ruling party--in spite of being in power since the beginning of the fourth republic--may be understood as a subliminal communication that it has very little to show for its period in government apart from squandered opportunities; a lack of political empathy on the plight of its citizens paralysed by poverty; and a lack of control and the insecurity ravaging swathes of north eastern part of the country.

It is surprising that the opposition--for some reasons--has largely refrained from attacking the personal integrity of Mr Jonathan, other than accuse him of incompetence, inept leadership and lack of compassion and humanity, given his belated tepid response to the abduction of the Chibok girls by Boko Haram. This in some ways mirrors the Republican Party’s refusal to attack Mr Dukakis’ medical history--he suffered from major depressive illness--in 1988 presidential election. When Ronald Reagan was asked if his party was going to use this history against Dukakis, he glibly responded: ain’t got nothing against an invalid.

Notwithstanding that the momentum is with Mr Buhari and his message of change is more attractive and has more traction than the status quo that Mr Jonathan represents, the power of incumbency in Nigeria’s political history is a very powerful single proposition that the opposition will discountenance at their peril.

Given the very polarised nature of this campaign season, the narrow margin of the electability of the two front runners and the winner-takes-it-all--a characteristic of presidential system of government--it is perilously possible that come February 2015, there may be no official winner acceptable to either of the supporters of the two leaders. To further complicate matters, the country’s electoral commission, The Independent Electoral Commission has warned that in the event of no clear winner in the first round, it may not be able to conduct a run-off election within the seven days stipulated by the amended 2010 Electoral Act.

Nigeria is apparently perching on a precipice and an accident could occur at that dizzy height which could plunge the country into Hades. The best case scenario of such a cascade of events is Cote d’Ivoire in 2010. Worse still is an armed insurrection--along ethno-religious lines--that engulfs most parts of the country which would be an open invitation for a military intervention. This will be like 1966--a chequered period in Nigeria’s history--all over again. Mark Twain aptly put it: history does not repeat itself, it rhymes.

This pessimistic picture is not inevitable. It will only take both sides of the political divide to show a sense of duty that comes with their privileged position. A duty they owe to Nigerians. They ought to moderate the tone of their religious intolerance, reduce threats of violence with regard to outcome of the election and the political metabolic rate and rein in their supporters who display proclivity to casual violence without appreciating the wider ramifications of such gratuitous behaviour.

In my previous opinion article--2015: Time To Reappraise Current Paradigm (The Nigerian Guardian, 17 July 2014)--I argued that it is unlikely that Nigeria will cease to be a country in 2015, regardless of what political pundits say. This remains true. One cannot discountenance the resolve and resilence of the ordinary men and women who in their daily grind of life to eke out a meagre living see less of the contrived differences orchestrated by political jingoists, borne out of their primordial self interests. Further, as The Economist succinctly put it: Nigeria is a country where the best is impossible and the worst never happens. I believe that Nigeria will likely live to count its blessings and recount on how it found itself at a precipice and avoided a fatal accident--by a whisker.

The Right to Nationality in Africa

 António Guterres

Having a nationality is something most people take for granted – but to those who do not have one, this lack often sentences them to a life of discrimination, frustration and despair. This problem is much more wide-spread than many might think: it affects at least 10 million people worldwide, and every ten minutes another child is born stateless. In Africa, we have data on nearly three-quarters of a million stateless people, but know the real number is significantly higher.

Imagine what life is like for most of the people who are unable to prove their nationality. They cannot send their children to school, hospitals will not provide them treatment, they cannot get a job, marry or move around freely. They live as if they were invisible, and when stateless people die, many authorities will not even issue a death certificate – as if they had never existed.

When it is present on a large scale, statelessness can also fuel displacement and instability. But perhaps even more importantly, denying people a nationality is a missed opportunity for countries on the way to development and prosperity. Ensuring that everyone can enjoy their right to a nationality will allow societies to draw on the energy and talents of hundreds of thousands of people who today, legally speaking, do not exist.

For all of these reasons, UNHCR has recently launched a global campaign to end statelessness within the next ten years. There is a lot of positive international momentum now which makes this an ambitious but possible goal, and I count on the strong support of the African Union and its Member States to help us achieve it.

UNHCR works very closely with African governments – in the exercise of its legal mandate to ensure refugee protection, and within the inter-agency cluster approach, supporting the protection of people who have been forcibly displaced within the borders of their own countries. This partnership with African States benefits from Africa's exceptionally strong regional legal frameworks for protection.

The OAU Convention of 1969 set the cornerstone for refugee protection in Africa, grown from this continent's long-standing tradition of solidarity with people uprooted by conflict. The Convention solidified that commitment, and millions of people have found sanctuary in the 45 years since its adoption. From the wars of independence to the refugee crises of today, countries and communities across the continent kept their borders open to refugees and shared what they had with new arrivals even when they themselves were struggling to make ends meet.

Forty years after the OAU Convention's fundamental contribution to the international refugee protection regime, the African Union adopted another ground-breaking treaty: the Kampala Convention on internally displaced persons. With this, Africa became the first region in the world to have a legally binding instrument on the protection of people displaced within their own countries. 39 States have signed this landmark instrument since then, and several are in the process of developing national laws and policies based on the Convention.

Their commitment to protection has long guided African States in the development of high-quality regional legal frameworks. And following this spirit, I am confident that African Union Member States will also extend this same commitment to the protection of the right to nationality and the fight against statelessness.

African countries have already taken significant steps in this regard, including 13 accessions to the two Statelessness Conventions in just over three years. UNHCR is working closely with many African governments to identify stateless populations and include safeguards in citizenship laws that would ensure no child is born without a nationality. Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal have made important changes to their nationality laws to prevent and reduce statelessness, and we will have the great honor to listen to His Excellency President Ouattara of Côte d'Ivoire in a few minutes.

The adoption of a Protocol on Nationality to the African Charter on Human and People's Rights would not only be a signal of the African Union's continued strong protection commitment and an important legal instrument to further strengthen its body of laws. It would also help to improve the lives of thousands of some of the most vulnerable people on this continent.

Let me add one word on the empowerment of women. One of the main causes of statelessness today is discrimination against women when it comes to the passing on of nationality. In over two dozen countries in the world, including 10 African Union Member States, women still cannot pass their nationality to their children the same way as men, which can create new generations of suffering and despair. A regional protocol on nationality would set an important standard to help eradicate injustices like this, and to end statelessness, on the African continent. I am certain that, with the AU's strong leadership in protection, this is a goal that can be achieved, and we look forward to supporting the Union and its member states in this important endeavor.

The concept of "belonging" contains much more than could be written down in a legal text. In Africa's history, the fact of belonging to a nation has never been limited to a discussion of identity documents. What is needed, ultimately, is the political will to build tolerance and acceptance for everyone, and to create the social and human space in a society that will allow all of its members to be recognized, to contribute, and yes, to belong. This is very much in line with the best of African culture and tradition. The role of civil society in this process is of course crucial, and needs to be supported.

Africa has proven many times that it is able to find creative solutions to some of its very complex problems. I have no doubt that it can do so again.

Oil Prices Decline: A Review

Constantine Deus

The Tanzania Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA) announced a drop in oil prices on 2nd February 2015. This was the third time such an announcement was being made in three consecutive months (between December 2014 and February 2015) in Tanzania. The decline in fuel prices in the local market in Tanzania and other countries around the globe is happening at a time when the price of one Barrel of oil in the world markets is reported to have declined up to 40% (from US 115 to USD 70). A number of factors explain the drop in oil prices.  

One of the factors is the political economy of fuel energy in the world market. It is worth noting that the giant producers, members Of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) such as Saudi Arabia, USA, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and others have always worked to stabilize fuel prices in the world market when there was a possibility for decline in prices to a large extent. For instance, during the global economic crisis of 2008 to 2010, fuel prices could have prodded sharply following the declining demand of energy in the economic recession. However, OPEC countries stabilized the market by reducing production and giving chance to Saudi Arabia to continue producing highly with an agreement that when the world economy stabilized, other members would continue their production pace while Saudi would reduce her oil production to give benefits to all cartel members.

Contrary to the expectation, following the recovery of the world economy, Saudi Arabia did not reduce her crude oil productivity. Saudi Arabia was afraid of losing her share in the world market to emerging crude oil producers. Instead of cutting down her production of crude oil, the country has reduced its export prices to continue competing in the world market hence keeping the fuel prices down all over the world. 

Similarly, in November 2014, the world witnessed a high profile meeting of Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. Leaders of great nations such as China, Japan and the USA attended the meeting. The meeting was followed the ministerial meeting of APEC countries that discussed the stabilization of fuel prices in the world market. Some APEC members argued that production should be reduced for market stabilization while other members argued against the approach. It was emphasized further that production should continue and the market will take care of the rest. I think such disagreements are currently benefiting the market as they result to declining fuel prices.

Another factor behind the declining fuel prices is the increase of crude oil production in the United States of America. It should be clear that USA used to be the major importer of crude oil than any other country in the world. However following the development of sophisticated technology for exploration of shale oil which was previously considered unreliable, importation of fuel to USA has largely declined.  It is reported that recently, a Russian Rosneft company spent about two months and USD 700 Million to drill a single oil well in Kara, Northern Siberia whereby American Exxon Mobil spent less than a week and USD 1.5 Million for mining and processing of shale oil in Colorado. This means that the shale oil production is more economical and contributes to crude oil boom. USA is reported to have reached a 9 billion Barrels of oil production per day while the largest world supplier (Saudi Arabia) produces 10 Billion Barrels of oil per day.  Saudi Arabia’s share of fuel in the world market is more than 10% while USA does not export that much hence contributing to fuel booming in the USA market to cut of imports. 

A third and crucial factor is that crude oil is no longer scarce as it used to be. This is due to the fact that oil and gas deposits are continually being discovered around the world. As reported by the African Development Bank (AfDB), up to the year 2012, oil deposits had been discovered in 21 countries while gas deposits had been discovered in 24 countries in Africa. In some of the countries explorations are underway while other countries are already benefiting from extraction of their energy resources. In one way or the other, fuel discovery phenomenon contributes to the declining of the fuel in the world market since the energy is no longer scarce.

Fourth, is the search for alternative energy following climate change issues. The factor has continued to decrease fuel consumers hence reducing the demand for fuel in the world market. There is an increase of electrification of vehicles, trains, machineries alongside with the increasing use of solar, wind, biogas and other alternatives energies. East Africa still remembers the invention of an electric car in Uganda that was launched towards the end of 2014. Electric cars were as well exhibited during the 2011 international on climate change COP 17 held in Durban South Africa. Those cars are also increasing in the American car markets. Such inventions have had effects in reducing fuel consumption leading to high supply in low demand. 

Lastly, invention and use of more fuel economical cars has also reduced the speed of fuel consumers to a large extent. The fuel market had reached its high price sale prior to the 2008 economic crisis, even though the crisis destabilized the market, it gained momentum starting from 2011 to 2013. During that period, fuel business was beneficial but the pain was on the consumers and car manufacturers. This led to the adoption of less fuel consuming cars particularly from Asian manufacturers who targeted consumers in low income countries with low purchasing power. With time, the car markets have had many car users with insignificant fuel consumption resulting to a low demand of fuel at the time when crude oil production is skyrocketing.

Swabbing the Bleakness of Subcontinental Nuclear Instability

Vijay Shankar

Nuclear Stability: Where does it Begin?
After the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, it dawned upon President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev how catastrophically close to nuclear war they had blundered due to a misshapen military-led nuclear policy, a ludicrous nuclear doctrine that believed that a nuclear war could be fought controlled and won. Both leaders sought a change to the nuclear status-quo. As Khrushchev described it, "The two most powerful nations had been squared off against each other, each with its finger on the button." Kennedy shared this distress, remarking at a White House meeting, "It is insane that two men, sitting on opposite sides of the world, should be able to decide to bring an end to civilisation." He called for an end to the Cold War. "If we cannot end our differences," he said, "at least we can help make the world a safe place for diversity." In a series of private letters, Khrushchev and Kennedy opened a dialogue on banning nuclear testing. Thus began a progression of political moves and agreements that sought to dampen the risk of a nuclear war, contain the proliferation of nuclear weapons, do away with tactical nuclear weapons, limit strategic arms, cut arsenal size and indeed bring stability to nuclear relations. If at all there is a historical lesson to be learned then it is that nuclear risk reduction and stability begins with serious dialogue between leadership.

The Subcontinental Nightmare
If one were to hypothesise what petrifying form a nuclear nightmare may take, then it is a hair trigger, opaque nuclear arsenal that has embraced tactical use under decentralised military control steered by a doctrine seeped in ambiguity and guided by a military strategy that carouses and finds unity with non-State actors. It does not take a great deal of intellectual exertions to declare that this nightmare is upon the subcontinent. The need to bring about an awakening to the dangers of a nuclear conflagration is therefore pressing.

The effect of an enfeebled civilian leadership in Pakistan that is incapable of action to remove the military finger from the nuclear trigger; the active attendance and involvement of jihadists in swaying strategy; technology intrusions brought in by covert means; absence or at best ambiguity in doctrinal underpinnings that make Pakistan’s nuclear posture indecipherable and the alarming reality of ‘intention-to-use’, all in aggregate makes the status-quo untenable. The need for change in the manner in which we transact nuclear business is urgent. Strategic restraint predicated on failsafe controls, verification in a transparent environment, providing logic to size and nature of the arsenal and putting the brakes on the slide to nuclear capriciousness become imperatives to stabilising the deterrent relationship on the subcontinent.

But the catch is, how does one begin a meaningful nuclear dialogue with an emasculated Pakistani civilian establishment that does not control a military which in turn finds no reason to come to terms with a subordinate role? And as Cohen so succinctly put it, “Pakistan will continue to be a state in possession of a uniformed bureaucracy even when civilian governments are perched on the seat of power. Regardless of what may be desirable, the army will continue to set the limits on what is possible in Pakistan.” Add to this is the widely held belief within the army that terror as sanctioned by the Quran (I shall cast terror into the hearts of the infidels: Sura 12) is a legitimate instrument of Sstate power; the nature of the predicament becomes clear.

The Tri-Polar Tangle
A singular feature of the deterrent relationship in the region is its tri-polar character. As is well known today, it is the collusive nature of the Sino-Pak nuclear relationship which created and sustains its nuclear weapons programme. Therefore it is logical to conclude that there exists doctrinal links between the two which permits a duality in China’s nuclear policy; a declared No First Use can readily fall back on Pakistan’s developing First Use capability as far as India is concerned. Such links have made China blind to the dangers of nuclear proliferation as exemplified by the AQ Khan affair.

No scrutiny, of any consequence, of the regional nuclear situation can avoid looking at the internals of Pakistan. The country today represents a very dangerous condition that has been brought about by the precarious recipe that the establishment has brewed in nurturing fundamentalist and terrorist organisations as instruments of their military strategy. The extent to which their security establishment has been infiltrated is suggested by the attacks on PNS Mehran, Kamra air base, Karachi naval harbour and the assassination of the Punjab Governor; while the recent murderous assault on the Army School in Peshawar and the every day terror killings are more symptomatic of the free-run that these elements enjoy across the length and breadth of that country. Such a state of affairs does not inspire any confidence in the likelihood of the nuclear nightmare fading away or the robustness of their nuclear command and control structures to keep it in check.

Failure of the US Af-Pak Policy
As early as 2003 the US set out two major policy goals towards Pakistan, firstly holding it as an indispensable ally in its war in Afghanistan and secondly ending the proliferation of nuclear weapons in and from the region. However, over a decade later, both goals have failed dismally. There are confirmed reports that the Pak military has persistently deceived the US forces while elements within the former either lack the will to combat the insurgency or are actively involved with the jihadists. On the nuclear front, the rapid setting up of the unsafeguarded Khushab series (II, III and IV) nuclear reactors with Chinese collaboration having no other purpose than the production of weapon grade Plutonium, development of tactical nuclear weapons and the uninhibited growth of their arsenal do not in anyway enthuse belief in the US ability to exercise any stewardship over Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile. The inexplicable disappearance of key nuclear scientists who had recorded liaisons with al Qaeda remain alarming episodes that must cause anxieties. With US involvement in the Af-Pak greatly diminished and their focus on nuclear proliferation much sharper, the time is ripe for the US to clamp down on the maverick Pakistani nuclear posture.

Orientation of Sino-Pak Nuclear Collusion
The key to GHQ Rawalpindi’s compliance with rational norms of nuclear behaviour lies in Beijing. And the direction, in which Sino-Pak collusion is headed will to a large extent influence nuclear stability in the region. If the alliance was intended (as it now appears) to nurture a first use capability in order to keep subcontinental nuclear stability on the boil then the scope for achieving lasting stability is that much weakened. However, the current political situation in Pakistan presents a frightening possibility which is not in China’s interest to promote, more so, since Islamic terrorist elements have sworn to obtain nuclear weapons and the politico-ethnic situation in western China remains fragile. This in turn provides an opportunity to the Indian leadership to bring about change in the current ‘tri-polar tangle’.

A Blue Print for Regional Nuclear Stability          
Against the reality of conventional war with its limited goals, moderated ends and the unlikelihood of it being outlawed in the foreseeable future, the separation of the conventional from the nuclear is a logical severance. Nuclear weapons are to deter and not for use; intent is the key; coherence and transparency are its basis. These remain the foundational principles that a nuclear weapon state must adhere to. However, given the politics of the region, historical animosities and the persisting dominance of the military in Pakistan, the dangers of adding nuclear malfeasance to military perfidy is more than just a possibility. Stability in this context would then suggest the importance of not only reinforcing assured retaliation to nuclear violence, but at the same time for India to bring about a consensus among both China and the US to compel Pakistan to harmonise with foundational rules of nuclear conduct. India’s current strategic relations with the US and Prime Minister Modi’s impending visit to China provides a timely opportunity to bring an end to the nightmare by swabbing the bleakness of subcontinental nuclear instability. 

Catastrophic fire at Russia’s most important social science library

Clara Weiss

A fire that broke out in Moscow on the evening of January 30 destroyed the building of the most important social science library in Russia, the Academic Institute for Scholarly Information on Social Science (INIUN). Around 2 million books and manuscripts were burnt. The extent of the damage is yet to be confirmed. The fire is not only a tragedy for science in Russia, but also internationally.

The Russian oligarchy is entirely to blame for the fire.

The fire broke out at 10 p.m. on January 30 on the second floor of the building and could only be extinguished the following evening. Within this time, it consumed 2,000 square metres, causing extensive damage. The roof of the building later collapsed.

A total of 147 firemen were deployed for almost 24 hours to put out the fire (a video of the fire can be seen here). The police assume that the fire broke out due to the short-circuiting of an electric cable. Arson was also not ruled out as a possible cause.

Since all of the library’s employees as well those of the German Historical Institute of Moscow (DHIM), which is in the same building, had already gone home, no one was injured in the catastrophic fire.

The tragedy of the fire is difficult to overstate. INIUN is composed of around 14 million volumes and is one of the largest social science libraries in Europe.

Most of the volumes were luckily stored in the basement, beyond the reach of the fire. But 15 to 20 percent of the collection was irreparably destroyed by the flames. It remains unclear how bad the water damage was due to attempts to extinguish the fire. The library’s director, Yuri Pivovarov, stated that that with the use of appropriate technology, the majority of water damage could be rectified. Various institutes from Russia and other countries have already offered their assistance.

In an interview on February 3, Pivovarov declared that, to date, no location had been found where the library’s archives could be stored.

Assistance in finding new workspace was also offered by many institutes to the German Historical Institute of Moscow. The DHIM’s library, which has the most comprehensive collection of modern works on Russian-German history, was not damaged in the fire.

The chairman of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Fortov, described the fire as the “Chernobyl of Russian science.” Alexei Ryabinin, professor for Russian and international history at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, stated that the fire was a “tragedy for international science.” Ryabinin declared, “The catastrophic fire in the INIUN building is a huge shock for scholars around the world. A massive collection of unique literature in many languages made INIUN not just an achievement of Russian scholarship, but all of humanity.”

The collection is by far Russia’s most significant. It comprises rare editions of works from the sixteenth to the early twentieth century, as well as numerous volumes from the twentieth century in European languages that do not exist in either France or Germany. In addition, the library also holds the complete archive of the League of Nations, the United Nations, and UNESCO and documents from the US Congress since 1789, the British parliament from 1803 and the Italian parliament since 1879.

According to the latest indications, the Russian edition of all of the documents from the UN General Assembly, international handbooks and lexicons, documents from the International Court of Justice, and part of the library’s department for world literature in foreign languages, as well as the institute for research into Slavic language and culture were destroyed. In the latter case, the majority of these editions were only to be found at INIUN.

The library was founded by the Soviet government in 1918 and quickly expanded to become the Soviet Union’s largest library. It was shortly afterwards integrated into the Academy of Sciences and has been administered since 1936 by the presidium of the Academy of Sciences. In 1969, it was renamed INIUN and since 1974 has been based in the building that has now been destroyed. Even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, INIUN remained Russia’s largest social science library. It had around 49,000 members and around 330 employees.

INIUN was perhaps the most important research institute for scholars in Russia. Precisely due to the massive cuts made in the area of culture since 1985, and especially after the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991, libraries across the country were bled dry and resources for serious research were hard to come by. INIUN stood out because all volumes were freely accessible. The library’s catalogue, which unlike all other libraries and archives in Russia was visible to the public, was fortunately undamaged in the fire.

Hardly a single historian or social scientist who has researched Russian history and culture could conduct their research without INIUN. The library has 874 partners in 69 countries around the world and participates in an international book exchange programme.

Whether the building will be rebuilt or the library accommodated at a new location remains unclear. The director Pivovarov stated that the reconstruction of the building would take several years and depended on the government’s desire to do so.

The full responsibility for this catastrophe lies with the criminal oligarchy that emerged from the Stalinist bureaucracy and the destruction of the Soviet Union.

The fire itself as well as its terrible consequences were entirely avoidable: the fire risk in the building had been known for a long time. But as with almost all other academic and cultural institutions, INIUN has been financially bled dry since 1991. The long overdue renovation of the building or a move to a new one was unaffordable for the institute in Moscow, the city with the highest number of billionaires in the world.

In March 2014, a fire safety inspection found seven regulatory breaches and gave INIUN a deadline of January 30, the day when the fire broke out, to rectify the problems. A technical worker at INIUN commented to the online newspaper Gazeta.ru, “What do you expect, the building is from 1974. The wiring has not been changed since then.” According to the employee, the March 2014 inspection did not include a review of wiring.

According to the library’s director, Pivovarov, the antiquated system for extinguishing fires was found to be faulty by the inspection. He told lenta.ru, “We have been raising the issue [of a modern fire extinguishing system] with the Academy of Science for decades and requested the necessary funding. But the constant lack of financing made it impossible to resolve this issue. The Academy simply did not have the money for it.… The state did not give any money in the 1990s or in the 2000s.”

The impact of the fire could also have been prevented or at least restricted if, for example, the volumes had been digitised. But government funding for digitising the collection of this unique library was so small that it would have taken 100 years to complete the entire collection. Only a few thousand volumes were digitised each year—by the beginning of 2015 amounting to 7,000, and only those from Russian authors.

The INIUN fire is ultimately a consequence of the social counterrevolution implemented with the restoration of capitalism, through which not only the social conditions of the working class, but also culture and science, have been totally undermined.

After the Russian Academy of Science was reformed in 2013 as an independent institute, practically ceasing to exist as an academic institution after decades of cuts, the most significant social science library in the country has now been partially destroyed and will be only partially accessible for months, if not years.

US presses for military action against Russia

Joseph Kishore

As German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande prepare another round of talks with Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday on the war crisis in Eastern Europe, the United States is ratcheting up the pressure for military action.

Over the past several days, American political and military officials have issued a series of bellicose statements, all premised on the lie that the US must move rapidly to counter “Russian aggression” in Ukraine.

On Sunday, US Secretary of State John Kerry said in an interview on “Meet the Press” that the US would be providing the pro-Western regime in Kiev with “additional assistance of [an] economic kind and other kinds,” a reference to bipartisan demands that the Obama administration directly arm Ukraine. On Saturday, US Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who serves as the head of both the US European Command and NATO in Europe, insisted that it was impossible to “preclude out of hand the possibility of the military option” in Ukraine.

At the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, Republican senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham poured scorn on European negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. McCain summed up Merkel’s speech at Munich, which included a statement of opposition to arming Ukraine, with one word: “foolishness.” He added, “I can assure you that [Putin] will not stop until he has to pay a much higher price.”

Washington is mobilizing its allies within Europe, including former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, a member of the US-based RAND Corporation and other think tanks close to the American military. Bildt declared last week that, “war with Russia is conceivable.”

The Obama administration is expected to announce a final decision on whether to arm Ukraine some time this week, following meetings today with Merkel in Washington. Whatever the immediate outcome of these talks, the statements of US civilian and military figures and American-allied officials in Europe make clear that the United States is preparing a massive escalation of its intervention in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as a whole.

The prospect of a continent-wide war has produced nervousness in European capitals, expressed in the tactical divisions that have emerged between Germany and France on one side and the US on the other over a possible decision by Washington to provide advanced weapons to Ukraine.

Yet the European powers, whatever their misgivings, are themselves deeply implicated in the operations in Ukraine, set off by the fascist-led coup last February that installed a right-wing, pro-NATO government in Kiev. The putsch was followed by sanctions, threats and the militarization of Eastern Europe. Rather than arming Ukraine, European leaders have called for a tightening of economic sanctions against Russia aimed at strangling the country and forcing it into submission.

The provocative stance of the imperialist powers has been evident throughout the proceedings at Munich, characterized by a series of denunciations of Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the entirely correct point that at every step in the Ukraine crisis, the US and the EU “have tried to escalate the situation.” His remarks were met with boos and catcalls from the assembled representatives of imperialism.

Whatever the divisions between the major imperialist powers, it is clear that the Obama administration will not accept any agreement that undermines the outcome of the putsch that was launched a year ago.

The United States is pursuing a strategy that follows the playbook outlined several months ago by Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security adviser under President Jimmy Carter. At a conference sponsored by the Wilson Center, Brzezinski, a leading figure in the US foreign policy establishment, made clear that the aim of the US is to draw Russia into prolonged combat in Ukraine. Arming Ukraine would allow it to engage in “urban short-range fighting” in the major cities of Kiev and Kharkiv, Brzezinski said, ensuring a “prolonged and costly” war for Russia.

Brzezinski pioneered just such a strategy in the 1980s, when he initiated the arming of Islamic fundamentalist forces in Afghanistan as part of a proxy war against the Soviet Union. The US is seeking to do to Russia, via Ukraine, what it did to the Soviet Union via Afghanistan. In the process, Ukraine is to be turned into a wasteland of death and destruction, with the very real prospect of a wider conflagration involving nuclear weapons and the deaths of hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. There is an extraordinary disconnect between the policies that are being planned and carried out and what is being told to the American people. Foreign and military policy takes on the character of a vast conspiracy, organized by a cabal of state officials, generals, intelligence chiefs and foreign policy strategists.

All of this is being carried out without any discussion of the implications. Most Americans have little or no idea what the criminal gang in Washington is plotting and the immense consequences of these actions for the entire world. Amidst talk of imminent war in Europe, the American people are led to believe that the greatest danger they face is the latest winter storm. The weather once again topped the evening news reports on Sunday.

Not a single media figure has posed to Kerry, Obama, McCain, Brzezinski or any of the other plotters such basic questions as: How many millions of deaths are they prepared to accept to force Russia to “pay a higher price?” If the United States arms Ukraine and Russia responds with an offensive against Kiev or operations in one of the Baltic states, is NATO planning to declare war on Russia? At what point in the “military option” will the use of nuclear weapons be considered? How many hundreds of billions of dollars is the US government prepared to spend in pursuit of global slaughter?

The crisis in Ukraine is bound up with the overall strategy of American imperialism. The United States has been engaged in virtually continuous warfare for over a quarter century. The US ruling class concluded from the dissolution of the Soviet Union that it could establish a “new world order” based on America’s military supremacy. This would be leveraged to counter the protracted decline in the economic position of American capitalism. Whether under Democrats or Republicans, the ruling class has pursued this strategy systematically, seeking to conquer and control Central Asia, the Middle East, East Asia, Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Now these actions have placed the question of a global conflict involving nuclear-armed powers on the agenda of world capitalism. However the latest crisis over Ukraine is resolved, imperialism is set on a course that, without the independent intervention of the working class, leads inexorably to world war.