Rohingya run and imperialism

Farooque Chowdhury

The long Rohingya run is passing more than a year in its current phase – a huge number of the Rohingyaas in Bangladesh. Amidst diplomatic dialogues, and imperialist intrigues the Rohingyas staying in Bangladesh are passing difficult days.

The Rohingyaas’ days are harsh and hard, very difficult to bear. Their days are uncertain and undignified also. Living on doles is not a dignified life. Moreover, dignity dries down when imperialism appears friend. Imperialism’s “friendly” posture creates a lot of critical questions. Nowhere and never imperialism was friend of any people struggling for survival and justice, for democratic rights, for dignity as the two interests – people’s and imperialism’s – are diametrically opposite, contradictory.

The Banglaa monsoon has passed through the lives of the Rohingyaas staying in Bangladesh. Another winter is coming in their lives. Chilling cold will overshadow their shacks within months. Apprehension of sea cyclones battering Rohingyaa refugee camps is always there. It’ll be the Rohingyaa children and the aged, the Rohingyaa women and the infirm to bear most of the difficulties accompanying all elements. Shedding tears in this article mean nothing in real terms to these unfortunate people, victims of persecution, murder, arson and rape. Rather, raising hard facts of life and politics helps chart the future path. And,  imperialism is one of the hard facts influencing life and politics. Ignoring the question of imperialism is suicidal, an approach for making oneself subservient to imperialism. This is the reality the Rohingyaas are now confronting.

Now, another undeniable fact: Bangladesh within its capacity, and by heavily paying in many terms including ecological, is sheltering a huge number of the Rohingyaas. A few of the losses including ecological Bangladesh is incurring are irreversible while the total price is high for an economy like Bangladesh. The total payment, a high price tag, is ultimately being made by the Bangladesh people. And, in final analysis, none, neither the rich nor the robber aristocrats, but the toilers in Bangladesh are making the payment as only the toilers produce resources, surpluses, parts of which reach different destinations.

Uncertainties overshadow lives of these Rohingyaas: What’s waiting in the wings? What’s going to happen to their food-shelter-health-education question, to the livelihood question, to the issues of safety and security, to the issue of rights considered inalienable by humanity, and to the question of dignity all peoples are entitled to? The issues haunt the Rohingyaa people every day and every moment. This business of haunting is neither a hobby nor an amateurish act to the people. This haunting goes on as these are essentials for survival as human being. Today’s world proclaims rights and safety of wild and domesticated animals. The Rohingyaas are neither wild nor domesticated animals. They are human beings, a people; and they deserve rights, dignity and safety as members of the human community. Should the rights, etc. be ignored? Should not be.

But, this people are passing a period hostile to them. There’s geopolitics that’s now determining the path of their destiny. They have no standing ground in real terms other than rights proclaimed by humanity, which is a powerful and solid ground. At the same time, they now face a choice: Saying “yes” or “no” to any possible plan for turning them proxy of imperialism. Any of the two options – “yes” or “no” – makes a lot of difference in terms of time and real gains. This question is now important as imperialism identifies South Asia as a region for its permanent presence in different forms. A senior leader from the Empire has expressed this idea very recently.

How much the Rohingyaa people know about geopolitics concerning the region they are associated with? The term itself is unknown to most of them. Are they aware that the factor – geopolitics – is determining their on-going days, and their unknown days? Imperialism is making efforts to make them mere pawns in the geopolitical game related to the region. It will not be startling if it’s found that there is a plan to make them cannon fodder of imperialism – an “insignificant” issue to imperialism while a life-and-death question to the Rohingyaa people.

The entire business of choosing between the options “yes” and “no” mostly depends on goal and program the people like to achieve, leadership and leadership’s level of maturity, and leadership’s capacity to identify goals, and allies and foes. Mao, in one of his early-writings on class analysis, made the suggestion: Identifying classes hostile and friendly determine success. Option for choice vanishes if the role of imperialist proxy is played. Moreover, imperialist proxies are not having an easy time in today’s world; and coming days, it’s assumed, will be harder for the proxies.

Geopolitics is cruel at times, and geopolitics is difficult to deal with at moments. To anybody, today’s geopolitics is turning difficult for imperialism compared to the early-1990s as imperialism is wrestling with itself at times.  Who imagined at the inception of the WTO that imperialism would question the organization, would ponder leaving the tool, would say the tool organized to facilitate its domination is hurting it? But, now, it says: the WTO is troublesome, the organization is biased against it, majority of its judges go against it! No doubt, it’s a ponder-worthy statement: who is telling why. There are other significant, though small, shifts in the world situation, where imperialism is not always having a smooth sailing. So, turning oneself as proxy of imperialism is not a wise choice even if someone loves to dump conscience in the heap of denunciations, even if someone discards goal and program for a peaceful-prosperous-democratic life. And, goal and program for a peaceful-prosperous-democratic life can never be achieved with imperialism’s “friendship” as imperialist economy doesn’t allow prosperity to any people anywhere, even not in imperialist country. Moreover, a look at the vanished widely-propagated American Dream shows limits of imperialist economy. It’s not possible for imperialist economy to help other lands as the economy can survive only by pauperizing people and plundering lands around the world.

It’ll be a foolish business for the Rohingyaas to allow imperialism to turn them into a time bomb in the region. The time bomb, if planned and executed, will be disastrous for many including the Rohingyaas, Bangladesh and others in the region although there are calls by some quarters to invoke R2P for intervention, a disgraceful act and a dangerous proxy-game. This move makes anyone apprehensive: Is there a long-term plan for imperialist intervention in the region? Is the plan being initiated? Or, has it already started rolling?

It’s a question: How can one suggest invoking R2P after the experiences of Iraq and Libya, empirical evidences, not a theoretical discourse? Shall that – invoking R2P for intervention – be beneficial to any people and to any land other than imperialism? Shall not it hurt Bangladesh, a striving economy powered by the toils of millions in home and at abroad? Is issuing the call a responsible act with obligation to Bangladesh people? Even, it will not help the Rohingyaas. Has not imperialism abandoned its once-friends, its once-proxies? Very recent examples, months-old, are available if someone likes to forget imperialism’s long history of abandoning its friends. Who can forget, from recent-past, Marcos and Noriega, and the way they were dumped? Marcos was humiliatingly helicopter-picked from the presidential palace ground in Manila while Noriega experienced a brutal blow after ending in an imperial prison. No prudent leadership with the aim of attaining rights and obligation to its people depends on imperialism. Shall not the Rohingyaas consider this aspect and move prudently? The answer depends on the Rohingyaas.

Has the Bangladesh anti-imperialist camp protested and denounced the call for invoking R2P for initiating intervention? Has it discussed implication of issuing such a call? A silence on the issue brings nothing but shame for the anti-imperialist camp, expands scope for furthering the call by imperialist proxies, helps create ground for imperialist intervention, records shameful performance or non-performance of the anti-imperialist camp in Bangladesh, and ultimately shows the anti-imperialist camp abandoned its anti-imperialist fight.

For the Rohingyaas, the call for imperialist intervention will be hurting. It, in no way, will further their cause. Any imperialist intervention in any land is only for furthering imperialist interests. Doesn’t the history of imperialism and following developments in intervened countries bear evidences to support the claim, related to imperialist interests, made above?

Who in today’s world stands with imperialism? None, but its lackeys and proxies. None with a sense of dignity, none seeking justice and rights, none with the aspiration for self-reliance, none with dream for a prosperous and dignified nation stands for imperialism. Have not Fidel and his country – Cuba – showed it repeatedly over the last decades?

Over-enthusiasm of the imperialist/mainstream media with the Rohingyaa issue is noteworthy. Although the same media very-often goes near-mute on the Yemeni people’s suffering. But, the Yemeni people are the same suffering people, the same brethren. The Yemeni children and their mothers suffer the same pain as the Rohingyaa children and the mothers, the Rohingyaa orphans suffer. In one case, it’s over-loud while in another case, it’s near-silent. Has ever the imperialist/mainstream media went for any people’s genuine cause? Nowhere and never. The same evidence is present in the cases of Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua. How much information the imperialist/mainstream media has presented on the corrupt elites in Brazil, their corruption in terms of money and in terms of their political plays? How much information this media has presented on the assassination campaign by the rightists to foil democratic movement of the people in Colombia? Audience of this media knows the answer: Almost nil, almost hiding the Brazilian elite-corruption, almost hiding the Colombian assassinations. How much support this media extended to Arafat and to the Palestinian people? Not at all. Then, is not it a question: Why this media is over-loud with the Rohingyaa cause? Is it genuine? Or, is there some other agenda the bosses have in their pockets? The Rohingyaa people should take this issue into consideration. It’s the Rohingyaa people to decide.

Against the backdrop of this existing reality the Rohingyaa people are to decide their journey, to choose their friends and not-friends, to articulate their aspiration, to decide about their form of move for gaining rights and justice. Their rights include democratic rights, fundamental rights, human rights, birth rights, environmental and ecological rights, rights as members of the world human society. These rights are inalienable, un-snatchable, undeniable. None can snatch away these rights, none can deny these rights. These rights are included in democratic movement. And, all democratic movements must be anti-imperialist as imperialism stands against people’s democratic movement. In today’s world, there’s no space left for democratic movement to establish alliance with imperialism as imperialism is opposed to democracy for the people. The facts, in brief, are: The interest democratic movement strives to secure is completely different from the interest imperialism defends; imperialism moves with its own economic, political and geopolitical agenda while the agenda of democratic movement is opposed to that of the imperialists; democratic movement is for people’s rights while imperialism never ensures people’s rights. A deviation from this stand makes a democratic movement an appendage of imperialism, takes away democratic character and essence of the movement. The Rohingyaa people should take this – the question of imperialism – into their consideration; they should decide their path free from any provocation and adventurism as provocation and adventurism aids imperialism and co. – enemy of people.

Suicide rate said to spike among Ahwazis

Nouri Hamza

Ahwazi rights groups worried about the suicide trend; highest rate was among Ahwazis aged 18-25.

Several workers at a sugar processing plant in the Haft Tepe district, located about 15 km south-east of Susa city in the northern Ahwaz region, have attempted to commit suicide by dousing themselves with Benzene and setting themselves on fire. Their colleagues intervened, rescuing them from certain death.

The incident took place after the workers had been laid off from the factory. This work is the only source for them to earn their living.

Security forces in Susa city have arrested the workers who attempted suicide. They are Karim Al-Kathir, Ali Al-Kathir, Yehia Saadi, Hamza al-Kathir and Faris Saadi.

As is usual for protests in Ahwaz, the Iranian media have ignored the incident.

In Abadan, a child killed himself after desperate poverty forced his mother to sell his bicycle. Living in destitution, the bicycle was sold so as to be able to buy bread for the family.

The wave of suicides is widespread; bodies of youth, of both sexes, dead as a result of suicide, have been found throughout the Ahwaz region.

Speaking on the harrowing tallies related to suicide in Ahwaz, Reza Rafiee, the head of an ambulance service in northern Ahwaz, said that six people per week commit suicide in Ahwaz. In other words, in Ahwaz, every 28 hours a person dies from suicide.

Experts familiar with the issue say that the reasons behind these frightening figures are related to political causes and repression by security forces in the region. They also point to the mechanisms used by the Iranian state apparatus to justify shocking brutality against the population.

Based on on-field follow-ups, most of those who have committed suicide are young, unemployed men. They also include high school students. Most are not drug users. The investigations revealed that people were subject to harsh and inhuman treatment by the authorities. They were barred from even earning a living and enjoying their most basic rights, including opportunities to secure a job, lodging, food, water and access to medical care.

The experts also cited several social and psychological factors, including the lack of social support, solitude, rampant poverty and the crushing depression of life in the slums.

Explaining the root causes of suicide, Dr. Youssef Abu-Hamidan, a specialist on behavior, says, “When a person suffers from severe untreated depression, it may lead to suicide. Some are driven to suicide by a sense that the whole society is unjust, and that they confront a conspiracy of repression that targets them.”

Reviewing the near-daily suicides in Ahwaz, it must be noted that the repression the Ahwazis suffer is the work of the Iranian regime. In addition to conscious policies of discrimination, the regime’s policies fuel racism against Arabs. The policies of the Iranian state are clearly aimed at obliterating the Ahwazis, who are deprived of their political, social, economic and cultural rights.

The suicides reflect the conditions of the Ahwaz people. According to an expert in this regard, when an Ahwazi throws himself from a bridge, he wants to turn the world’s attention to his peoples’ plight; he is protesting the dire situation in the region. He wants the world to pay attention to what is happening in his homeland, in particular, the practices of the occupiers against the people.

When an Ahwazi Arab sets fire to himself, he is announcing to the world that there is no way out for his people. The policies of the government have deprived them of access to even their most basic necessities. On the other hand, the same government provides all that the Persian settlers need for them to prolong their stay in Ahwaz. This support is offered consciously to promote the colonization of Ahwaz.

Other experts, on mass suicide, say that this phenomenon is generally a response to political or religious conflicts, in which an oppressor holds all the power. It is done to win support from the public opinion at home and abroad.

Among the factors driving the Ahwazis to despair is the desertification of their homeland. Water is precious, but the Iranian regime has pursued wasteful and reckless development strategies that have poisoned resources. There is no water for agriculture or drinking. This comes as the Iranian state has seized control of the Ahwazi dams, diverting the course of the rivers to the central Persian areas.

In addition, the systematic denial of any type of employment to Ahwazis, even though all oil and gas are in Ahwazi lands, forces Ahwazis to become the poorest people in the wealthiest area. Such contradictions take their toll on the people.

Suicide has become the desperate act of the Ahwazis to express their rejection to the political, socio-economic status quo. It is their way through which they speak out against Iranian policies in their homeland.

Cambodia’s autocratic regime desperately tries to legitimise its rule

John Roberts 

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen last week called a “Consultation Forum” in Phnom Penh’s Peace Palace to involve 20 political parties that failed to gain seats in the July 29 national elections in a new “culture of dialogue.”

The presidents of the 16 parties that showed up were offered positions as advisers to the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) government, which won all 125 seats in the new National Assembly. This rigged election came after the CPP won all 58 seats in the country’s upper house or Senate in February.

The forum was a desperate effort by the CPP regime to legitimise its one-party rule and avoid punitive sanctions that the US and European Union threatened in the lead up to the July 29 poll.

Brussels and Washington have demanded that the main opposition party, the pro-Western Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) be reinstated and its jailed leader Kem Sokha released. The CPP-controlled Supreme Court dissolved the CNRP last November and Sokha was jailed on trumped-up treason charges.

Having suppressed its main rival, the CPP focussed its election campaign on a bid to prevent a low turnout. In the end, the government claimed an 83 percent turnout, up on 2013, with the CPP gaining 4,889,113, or 77.36 percent, of the valid votes counted. No one should credit this sham result. Even the official result pointed to widespread dissatisfaction, with 596,775 ballot papers, or 9 percent of votes cast, spoiled, up from 1.6 percent in 2013.

The pretext for banning the CNRP was the party’s alleged links to Washington-funded organisations, including the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and involvement in a plan to bring down the government in a “colour revolution.” At the same time, the NDI and media outlets linked to Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, set up to promote US imperialist interests, were forced to cease operations in Cambodia.

The CNRP undoubtedly has ties to US imperialism and its various agencies. However, it is a measure of the political bankruptcy of the CPP that it is compelled to resort to blatantly anti-democratic methods to ensure its grip on power. The CNRP has been able to falsely posture as the defender of workers and peasants precisely because of government’s continuing attacks on living standards.

The CPP has ruled since the 1979 Vietnamese invasion that toppled the Pol Pot regime. Hun Sen’s ruling clique was shaken in 2013 when the CNRP won 44 percent of the vote and 55 seats in the then 123-seat national assembly. In regional elections in June 2017, the CNRP increased its vote by over 13 percent while that of the CPP declined by almost 11 percent.

The regime calculated it would be voted out of office in last month’s poll.

Following the November court ban on the CNRP, Hun Sen drove its 55 legislators out of the parliament and allocated their seats to minor parties. The CPP installed their own cronies in 489 positions of commune chief and 5,007 positions of councillor that had previously been occupied by the CNRP.

The CPP and the CNRP represent rival factions of the capitalist class. Both support the transformation of Cambodia into a cheap labour platform for foreign investors. Some 700,000 workers are engaged in the garment industries, which account for 70 percent of the country’s exports, as well as in footwear, natural rubber, fish and other industries.

In 2013 and 2014, Hun Sen used the security forces to violently suppress the struggles of textile and garment workers over poor wages and appalling working conditions. Hun Sen only began to offer limited concessions when CNRP sought to posture as a defender of these workers.

The CNRP represents sections of the ruling elite frustrated by the domination of the Hun Sen regime and their exclusion from business opportunity, profits and power. The CNRP is oriented to Washington, which has provided aid to the opposition as a means of placing pressure on the ruling party.

The CPP government has sought to maintain and improve relations with the US and EU, which in 2016 were the destination for $US10.1 billion, or 61 percent, of its exports. Washington, however, is hostile to the government’s orientation to Beijing, on which it relies for aid, investment and political support. Hun Sen has championed Beijing’s interests inside the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) against Washington’s drive for ASEAN support for its anti-China drive.

Chinese President Xi Jinping was the only major foreign leader to congratulate Hun Sen on the CPP’s victory in the July poll. While the US announced aid cuts after the February upper house election, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe visited Cambodia, promising increased defence cooperation and military aid.

Virtually all the $2 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into Cambodia annually comes from Asia. The leading investors are China, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and Japan. China, however, provides more FDI than all the others put together and accounts for more than $20 billion worth of accumulated FDI stock.

At the same time, Cambodia depends heavily on the US as the country’s biggest single market, taking more than $US3 billion in exports. China accounts for only 6 percent of Cambodia’s exports.

Concerned that Cambodia could move closer to China, the Trump administration has not imposed major economic penalties, such as ending its tariff-free export status. When the election results were announced on August 15, the US State Department responded by imposing limited extra visa restrictions on select officials.

However, as it escalates its confrontation over trade and other issues against China, Washington could also turn on Beijing’s partners and allies, including Cambodia.

Sharp rise in right-wing attacks on Palestinians and Israeli peace and rights activists

Jean Shaoul 

Last weekend saw violent attacks on Palestinian-Israelis and Israeli peace activists. Ten people were hospitalised with cuts, lacerations, fractures, and other injuries after being attacked by Israeli Jews.

Three Palestinian-Israeli citizens were sitting on the beach at Kiryat Haim, in the northern port city of Haifa, when a young man approached them and asked if they were Arabs. Just minutes after they answered that they were, he returned with nine youths, armed with metal rods, chains, clubs and knives, and attacked them.

Yair Elalouf, a Jewish Israeli who came to their aid and called the police, said that if he and his friend hadn’t intervened, “they [the attackers] would’ve murdered them.” He said that at least 70 to 80 people witnessed the attack, but none of them intervened or called the police even though the assailants “had brutally beaten them with the clubs for 3-4 minutes, and one of the attackers used an iron chain, maybe of a motorcycle or a bike.”

The victims—Dr Muhammad Yousefeen from the Ichilov Hospital at the Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, a 28-year-old nurse and a 20-year-old man—said the attack was racially motivated, adding that the attackers swore at them and said, “You are Arab dogs, don’t stay here.”

They thanked Elalouf later at the police station, saying, “Without him, we wouldn’t have stayed alive” and they went to see him to thank him again. He said, “They took my phone number, wanted to invite me to Shfaram [their neighbourhood] to eat with them, and wanted to come to my house with their families. I told them they are more than welcome.”

He added, “People ask me all the time, ‘Did you know they were Arabs?’ Of course I knew, but it doesn’t matter who they were. I would do the same for anyone. If it is an Ethiopian, an Arab, or a Jew. It does not matter. If someone needs help, he should receive it. I wish the whole country thought like this.”

Elalouf’s attitude contrasted sharply with that of the police, which was one of indifference. While the police later arrested two suspects, they released them and put them on house arrest following a court appearance. The judge criticized the police for failing to examine the video footage of the incident thoroughly or produce adequate evidence to link the suspects to the attack.

In a second incident, five Jewish Israelis set upon two Palestinian-Israeli construction workers in Binyamina, south of Haifa, with knives and clubs. While the police claimed the attack was not a hate crime, the two Palestinians, who were taken to the hospital with cuts and bruises, said the attackers called them “Arab terrorists.”

One of the victims told Ynet that a girl “called the police and claimed we wanted to rape her. A few minutes later, more people showed up and one of them stabbed me. We ran away and went to the police. When I got to the station, I fell, they called an ambulance and I was taken to hospital. This incident could have ended in tragedy. I could have been shot because someone said ‘terrorists.’”

Again, the police tried to make out it was just a brawl and had nothing to do with racism. The Palestinian who was lightly wounded contradicted this, saying, “I was surprised when the police said a fight broke out. The attack was nationalistically motivated. We didn’t hurt anyone, and we don’t know the people that hit us. I wonder why the police are attempting to shake off all responsibility. This incident is severe, we saw death facing us.”

In a third incident, 15 masked settlers from Mitzpe Yair, an illegal outpost, attacked activists with Ta’ayush (Co-existence), a volunteer group of Jewish Israelis and Palestinians working for “a future of equality, justice and peace,” near Hebron in the West Bank. The peace activists were documenting illegal settlement construction in a nearby outpost and acts of vandalism against residents of a neighboring Palestinian village. Five of the activists, all Israeli Jews, needed hospital treatment for their injuries. Cameras and other equipment were damaged.

The previous week, a 40-year-old army reservist was recorded on camera hitting a member of Ta’ayush, who was accompanying Palestinian farmers in the Hebron Hills area to their fields to protect them against settlers who carry out a constant campaign of intimidation and violence. The reservist was heard saying, “There are events by ‘anarchists against fences,’ there is the ‘ugly parade’ and the ‘traitor parade’—which one are you?” He was discharged from the army because of the incident.

A bill is currently going through the Knesset that will criminalize photographing and documenting the Israeli army and prohibit the dissemination of footage of the army on social and mainstream media to prevent any criticism of, or sanctions against, the military’s activities.

Racially motivated incidents are appearing with increasing frequency, as well as settler violence against the Palestinians to which the security forces turn a blind eye. A report into incitement on social media for the year 2017 published by 7amleh, the Arab Center for Social Media Advancement, records 445,000 calls for violence, hate speech posts and curses against Palestinians. One out of nine posts about Palestinians contained a call for violence or a curse. Fifty thousand Israeli social media users wrote at least one inciting post against Palestinians.

7amleh noted that while Facebook has intensified its efforts to suspend, delete and ban Palestinian accounts and pages under the pretext of “incitement”, 82 percent of Israeli incitement takes place on Facebook, with 2017 witnessing a large increase in the number of right-wing Facebook groups and pages that incite against Palestinians. These include: The Shadow (an extreme right-wing Israeli singer), Roaring for the Right, Against Extreme Leftist Media, Reclaiming Jewish Nationality, Fighting for the Land of Israel and The Lies of the Leftists (all translated from Hebrew) as well as “the rising incitement perpetrated on Facebook pages of mainstream Israeli media.”

This climate of hostility has been deliberately whipped up by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition government. Netanyahu famously warned his supporters on Election Day in 2015, when he thought his Likud Party might lose power, against the Arabs, who he said were “coming out in droves” to vote.

A study published in May by the Coalition Against Racism in Israel provides a list of examples indicating the degree to which the use of racist language among Israeli political leaders, as well as rabbinical authorities, has become commonplace.

The nationality law, enshrining Israel’s status as the nation-state of the Jewish people, not the state of all its citizens irrespective of religion or ethnicity, is also fanning the flames of racial hatred. Its passing follows the Trump administration’s move of the US embassy to Jerusalem in May and support for the murder of 171 unarmed and defenceless Palestinians and the wounding of thousands more during protests at the Gaza-Israel border by the Israel Defense Forces since March 30.

Israel’s right-wing parties, all led by nationalist forces or former Likud Party members, including the Zionist Union that includes the Labour Party, have encouraged and fostered racism in pursuit of the Greater Israel policy. The advocacy of communalist and ethno-religious politics, including ethnic cleansing, has involved countless attacks on Palestinians, Israel’s own Palestinian citizens and migrant workers, and now Jewish Israelis who support them.

As the gap between rich and poor has grown, the state has increased its reliance on right-wing settlers and extreme nationalist zealots, who provide the basis for the emergence of fascistic tendencies within Israel, to divert the growing anger over declining living standards and social inequality along reactionary lines.

Further evidence of official criminality surfaces as Grenfell fire inquiry resumes

Robert Stevens 

The Grenfell fire inquiry resumes next week after its summer recess, with further evidence surfacing of the criminality of those who ignored warnings that the tower was a death trap.

The inquiry will not bring justice. It is the creature of the Conservative government and, under the provisions of the 2005 Inquires Act, has no powers to prosecute anyone. Its fraudulent character was epitomised by chairman Sir Moore-Bick’s insistence that issues of a “social, economic and political nature” will not feature in its deliberations.

Issues that have emerged during the recess include the revelations this month by ITV News that it has seen documents proving official warnings about fire safety at Grenfell Tower were ignored just months before the June 14, 2017 fire that resulted in the horrifying deaths of 72 men, women and children.

The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea council (RBKC) and the Kensington and Chelsea Tenant Management Organisation (KCTMO), which managed the building on its behalf, were served a fire deficiency notice from the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority (LFEPA) in November 2016. They were also given, months earlier, a deficiency notice from an independent Fire Risk Assessment that flagged up multiple failures at Grenfell, requiring urgent action by the KCTMO.

ITV reported that the fire safety audits revealed “problems with damaged or poorly fitted fire doors, fire doors that didn’t self-close, and raised questions about how the refurbishment had affected the operation of the building’s smoke venting system and the fire-fighter’s lift controls.”

The “warnings from the independent assessor were issued in June 2016, one year before the fire, with deadlines for action,” reported ITV. The assessor, as part of a routine inspection during the buildings refurbishment, recommended that action be taken to remedy more than 40 “high risk” issues at Grenfell Tower within two to three weeks.

Nothing was done by the KCTMO on more than half of the issues identified, with ITV reporting, “In October [2016], the fire risk assessor wrote to the KCTMO asking why action still hadn’t been taken on more than 20 issues he had identified in his June report.”

LFEPA’s fire deficiency notice was dated November 2016, with a deadline for remedial work to be finished by May 2017—just one month before the fire.

This evidence reveals a criminal level of indifference towards the basic safety of residents in a tower block able to house around 600 people.

The broadcaster points out that “based on inspections of the building after the fire by experts for the Grenfell Tower Inquiry, there appears to be no evidence action was taken on many of the failings.”

Sandra Ruiz, the aunt of 12-year-old Jessica Ramirez, who died in the fire, told ITV, “It makes me really angry that somebody would have received that information and didn’t act on it.”

The issues cited in the fire audits have already been identified by Dr. Barbara Lane at the public inquiry. Lane was tasked with informing the inquiry as to why a small kitchen fire on the fourth floor of Grenfell was able to spread in a matter of minutes to engulf the entire 24-storey building, leaving many with no chance of escape.

The authorities didn’t act on the reports then and refuse to take any responsibility now. In response to ITV’s report, RBKC passed the buck to the public inquiry and the police investigation, knowing that they will do nothing. “This will be a matter for the public inquiry and to comment further could risk prejudicing the police investigation,” said RBKC. Neither the public inquiry nor Metropolitan Police investigation into the fire made any statement.

Nothing has been done to apprehend those responsible for the social murder committed by the authorities at Grenfell. The level of inaction is staggering. In nearly 15 months not a single person has been charged or even arrested. Since announcing in July that all they have done is to complete three interviews in relation to Grenfell, the police have said nothing more.

Many families made homeless by the fire have still not been rehoused. As of August 16, of the 204 households who lived in the tower, 53 households were still in emergency accommodation, 41 were in temporary accommodation, while 110 have moved into permanent accommodation. Of 129 households evacuated from the wider area, eight were in emergency accommodation, 74 in temporary accommodation and just one household moved into permanent accommodation.

Thousands of other public buildings around the UK are clad in flammable material of the type that resulted in the Grenfell fire becoming an uncontrollable inferno. Almost nothing is being done to make any of these structures safe. This led the Equality and Human Rights Commission, the UK’s human rights watchdog human rights, to declare the government in breach of its duty to protect lives under Article 2 of the European convention on human rights and schedule 1 to the Human Rights Act 1998.

It warns, “Combustible cladding is still present in many other buildings as well, including schools, leisure centres and hospitals… Estimates of the number of buildings affected run into the thousands, with the estimated costs of replacing combustible materials running into many millions of pounds. All those costs stem from the state’s failure to provide a building construction and fire safety system that is fit for purpose.”

The only thing the ruling elite is doing is developing a carefully-orchestrated campaign, led by the Royal Family, to present a picture of everyone working in common purpose for the Grenfell community. The day after the Inquiry resumes, the BBC will screen an episode of its DIY SOS series that will feature Prince William chipping in to help construct a new building for the Dale Youth Boxing Club that was previously located in Grenfell Tower.

This is nauseating. William and his family have nothing in common with those being patronised with such stunts. A hard hat and high visibility vest cannot disguise the fact that he is a representative of the same British state responsible for the Grenfell atrocity. He resides just two miles from the burnt-out husk, but he may as well live on another planet.

Worth tens of millions of pounds, this privileged scion of the aristocracy lives in Kensington Palace. Thirteen other Royal parasites, including Prince Harry and Megan Markle, live in the same splendour.

Those guilty of social murder at Grenfell Tower must be arrested and charged, including former London Mayor Boris Johnson, Prime Minister Theresa May and her predecessors, David Cameron, Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. Those instrumental in the decision to add the cladding to Grenfell must also be arrested and charged.

We demand:

• Justice for Grenfell means no cover-up and no inquiry whitewash!
• Arrest the political and corporate criminals responsible!
• Stop the scapegoating of firefighters!
• Quality public housing is a social right!
• For an emergency multibillion-pound programme of public works to build schools, hospitals, public housing and all the infrastructure required in the 21st century!

The Grenfell Fire Forum, initiated by the Socialist Equality Party, will be discussing these issues at its next meeting on Saturday, September 1, at the Maxilla Social Club in North Kensington, London. All are welcome to attend.

Grenfell Fire Forum meeting 
Saturday, September 1, 4 p.m.
Maxilla Social Club, 2 Maxilla Walk
London, W10 6SW (nearest tube: Latimer Road)

Amid NATO threats, Russia launches largest war games since World War II

Alex Lantier

This September, hundreds of thousands of Russian, NATO and Chinese troops are being mobilized in dueling war games across Eurasia. These exercises, the largest in Russia and Europe since the end of World War II, come amid an escalation of military conflicts and tensions directly posing the danger of a clash between nuclear-armed powers.

Today, as the Russian Navy mounts its largest deployment in the Mediterranean Sea in decades, Moscow is launching eight days of naval-aerial exercises in that region. The exercise involves 25 ships and 30 aircraft, including Tu-160 strategic bombers, whose capabilities include continental nuclear strikes. The Russian Defense Ministry advised that areas covered by the drill will be blocked off and “declared dangerous for navigation and flights.”

On September 11, Russia and China will launch the Vostok-18 (“East-18”) drills in eastern Russia’s trans-Baikal region. Vostok-18 is to surpass in size even the 1981 Zapad-81 drill, the largest war game carried out by the Soviet Union after World War II. It is to involve a staggering 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 vehicles on the Russian side, together with 3,200 troops, 30 aircraft and 900 vehicles from China. Mongolian troops will also participate.

On September 3, 2,270 NATO troops will participate in Exercise Rapid Trident 2018 in Ukraine, on Russia’s borders. This is only a prelude, however, to what will likely be the largest NATO war game in Europe since the end of the Cold War: Trident Juncture 2018, from October 25 to November 7 in Norway, again on Russia’s borders. This will involve 40,000 NATO troops, together with 130 aircraft and 70 warships. They are to be spearheaded by an unprecedented German contribution of 8,000 troops, 100 tanks and 2,000 combat vehicles.

The vast scope of these exercises is a warning to working people everywhere. In the capitals of the major powers, behind the backs of the people, cabals of state and military officials are planning wars that would devastate the planet and kill billions. These exercises come as tensions in various flashpoints created by decades of US-led NATO wars reach new heights, and the danger of direct conflict between NATO, Russia and China is openly discussed.

These flashpoints include:

• The breakdown of US talks with North Korea, which borders on eastern Russia and which Trump threatened last year with “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” that is, with nuclear war. Now Washington is warning it may resume military drills in South Korea, which last year involved 23,000 US and 300,000 South Korean troops in practicing “pre-emptive” attacks targeting North Korea.

• Russian warnings that UK intelligence is preparing a chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib region, the last holdout of NATO-backed Islamist rebels, as a provocation for Washington, London and Paris to justify another unprovoked bombing of Syria, like this April. “We have sent a strong warning to our Western partners not to play with fire,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, as US guided missile destroyer USS Ross arrives in the Mediterranean, facing off against the Russian flotilla.

• The killing in a terror bombing yesterday of Alexander Zakharchenko, the leader of the Russian-backed separatist Donetsk People’s Republic in east Ukraine. The Russian foreign ministry said it views this as an assassination carried out by the NATO-backed Ukrainian regime in Kiev.

Main responsibility for the war danger lies with the imperialist powers, above all the United States and the major Western European powers. For over a quarter century since the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, they have escalated aggressive military interventions across Eurasia, from Yugoslavia to Iraq and Syria, through to Afghanistan and beyond. These wars cost millions of lives and shattered entire countries, as Washington sought to maintain its failing global hegemony.

Washington’s threats against Russia and China came into the open in January when it published a new National Security Strategy, dropping the pretense that it was waging a “war of terror” and naming Russia and China as targets. Presenting the document, US Defense Secretary James Mattis branded Russia and China as “revisionist powers” threatening a US-led world order and said “great power competition, not terrorism, is now the primary focus of US national security.”

Moscow and Beijing are declaring that their exercises are a response to the US National Security Strategy and stepped-up US military activity worldwide. Russian state media cited foreign policy commentator Mark Sleboda, who said the exercises are a signal to Washington and “a response to their national security strategy, as well as a response to US and NATO posturing in the South China Sea, in the Taiwan Strait, as well as … the permanent stationing of troops that we are seeing on Russia’s western border.”

Sleboda bluntly stated that Moscow and Beijing are planning joint missile defense exercises to prepare for potential global nuclear war, as they “foresee that any strategic nuclear conflict that embroils one would, naturally, involve both.”

The Chinese Defense Ministry has stated that the exercises aimed “to strengthen strategic military partnership between the two countries, deepen friendship and cooperation between the two militaries and further boost the two countries' joint capability to deal with security threats.”

The scale of the Russian-Chinese exercises appears to be a warning addressed to military strategists and ruling elites in the imperialist countries, that Moscow and Beijing earnestly believe they could be on the brink of all-out nuclear war.

François Heisbourg, the well-known strategist at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank and the Fondation de recherche stratégique in Paris, Tweeted: “This new exercise goes beyond what may be useful for prestige purposes. It involves 30 percent of Russian active duty military & must be costly at a time when Russia’s defence budget is under strain. This only makes sense if large-scale war is viewed as a high probability contingency.”

Jonathan Holslag of the Free University of Brussels told the South China Morning Post the exercises are a “signal of deterrence,” adding: “It shows that, while there is still a lot of distrust between Moscow and Beijing, Moscow sees no other choice but to work with China, especially as relations with the US remain unstable and Chinese financial support is needed to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions.”

The policy of Moscow and Beijing, rooted in the bankrupt nationalism of the post-Soviet capitalist oligarchies in both countries, offers no way forward in opposing the imperialist war drive. These regimes are incapable of appealing to anti-war sentiment in the international working class. Rather, they oscillate between risking an all-out war with the imperialist powers that could cost billions of lives and begging the United States and its allies, which Moscow dubs its “Western partners,” for a deal.

There are indications that, as Trump threatens Europe with trade war, Moscow has some hope of splitting NATO and wining over the European imperialist powers against Washington. Indeed, Berlin has indicated it may be open to Moscow’s proposals for talks on Syria including Turkey and France, Germany’s main partner in plans to militarize the European Union, and excluding Washington. This plan is bankrupt, however: it entails backing EU countries’ plans to plunge hundreds of billions of euros to build up their military machines which, as the NATO exercises show, are aimed at Russia.

As at the beginning of the 20th century, rival capitalist governments are teetering on the brink of world war, this time involving nuclear weapons. This drive to war cannot be stopped outside of a conscious intervention by the working class. The main danger is that masses of people are not aware of the immediacy of the risk. This is why the WSWS stresses the urgency of building an international anti-war movement in the working class, based on an anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist perspective.

Nordic Africa Institute Scholarships for Applicants Based in the Nordics 2019

Application Deadline: 8th October 2018.

To Be Taken At (Country): Uppsala, Sweden.

About the Award: The aim of the scholarship programme is to offer a 1-month stay at the Nordic Africa Institute in order to facilitate use of the Institute’s library collections on contemporary Africa (books, periodicals, newspapers, and government publications), and to create links to existing research at the Institute.

Type: Masters

Eligibility: 

• Master students, PhD candidates and postdoctoral researchers pursuing Africa-oriented studies/research in Social Sciences and Humanities and affiliated to universities and research centers in Sweden, Finland and Iceland are eligible candidates, regardless of citizenship.
• Africa-oriented journalists and writers within the discipline of Social Sciences and Humanities in Sweden, Finland and Iceland can also apply for a scholarship.

Selection Criteria: Applications are primarily evaluated based on the outline of the research project.

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: 

• The scholarship covers travelling expenses for the least expensive fare from residential address (in Sweden, Finland and Iceland) to Uppsala and return.
• The scholarship holders are provided with a desk and computer in a shared office at the Institute and free accommodation centrally located in Uppsala.
• The scholarship also include a subsistence allowance of SEK 200 per day and free photocopying up to a maximum of 1,000 copies.
• Please note: The scholarship does not include health care insurance or other insurances.

Duration of Programme: 1 month

How to Apply: 

• Up-to-date CV, including list of publications (if any).
• Outline of research project, 3-5 pages:
  – Objective of the research project: The research topic should be clearly identified and contextualized within its academic discipline.
  – Method and time frame: Describe how the research project will be accomplished, state the research method, data gathering techniques and time frame.
  – Theoretical explication: A brief indication of the theoretical basis of the research project must be included.
  – The applicant should clarify what part of the research project he/she will work upon during the stay at the Nordic Africa Institute.
• Reference: A signed letter of support from the applicant’s supervisor or head of department, which confirms current affiliation and field of research. (Scanned versions of signed support letters can be emailed by the applicant.)

Applications sent by email should be addressed to
Annika Franklin, Research Administrator, email: annika.franklin@nai.uu.se
Applications sent by post/airmail should be addressed to
The Nordic Africa Institute
Annika Franklin
P.O. Box 1703
SE-751 47 Uppsala, Sweden.

Visit Programme Webpage for Details

Important Notes: Incomplete applications will not be considered. Persons currently or previously employed by or otherwise professionally affiliated with the Nordic Africa Institute are not eligible for scholarships. Kindly also note that the application and appendices must be in English. In the extraordinary event that the Scholarship Programme does not receive full funding, applicants will be informed immediately.

World Bank/African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) PhD Scholarships for African Students 2019

Application Deadline: 15th September 2018

Eligible Countries: African countries

To Be Taken At (Country): University of Cape Town (UCT) in South Africa

About the Award: The Collaborative PhD Programme (CPP) of the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) consists of a network of African universities that collaborate on the delivery of PhD training in economics and agricultural economics in Africa. These universities jointly develop a common curriculum, jointly enforce standards and jointly offer elective courses at residential shared facilities.
AERC, German International Cooperation (GIZ) and the World Bank are calling for fellowship applications to attend a course on Land Economics and Governance. The course is targeted at both students/faculty members and practitioners with an understanding at the second year PhD level in Economics, Agricultural Economics, Development Economics or other relevant doctoral programs, who would have an interest in continuing research on a land related topic. The course is also open to faculty from AERC partner institutions and Network of Excellence on Land Governance in Africa (NELGA) affiliated institutions, subject to meeting the course qualifications. It is part of capacity building efforts under the Strengthening advisory capacities for land governance in Africa (SLGA) program, being jointly implemented by the Land Policy Initiative (LPI) in UNECA, GIZ and the World Bank.
This intensive PhD course aims to help build and strengthen the analytical capacity in Land Economics and Governance in Africa, building the capacity of network universities in teaching and research in conformity to best global practices with deep African perspectives. This will be the second round of course offering, following a successful pilot in January/February 2018 at the University of Cape Town. Again, as in 2018, the course will be hosted at the University of Cape Town (UCT) in South Africa from January 7 to February 8, 2019 and will include an online preparatory course before travel to UCT. The course will be delivered by local and international experts on land related research of both academia and the World Bank,

Type: Short courses, PhD

Eligibility: 

• Applicants must be nationals of an African country;
• All applicants must be holders of at least a masters degree in agricultural and applied economics, or related discipline from an internationally recognized university;
• Applicants must be enrolled in a PhD program in Africa, or be a faculty member of an African University in a AERC accredited university or a NELGA affiliated institution;
• Possession of at least a publication or acceptance of an article for publication on land, in a refereed journal will receive special consideration.

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: Upon acceptance, flights, accommodation and per diem will be fully covered.

Duration of Program: January 7 to February 8, 2019

How to Apply: Interested applicants must submit their applications for admission directly to the AERC. Application documents can also be submitted via the AERC website at http://scholarships.aercafrica.org/ not later than September 15, 2018. These should include:

• Signed curriculum vitae; please use the Europass CV template (http://europass.cedefop.europa.eu)
• Certified copies of all university degree certificates
• Certified copies of all university transcripts as necessary
• Admission letter to a doctoral program as appropriate/proof of employment as a faculty member
• Letter of motivation (Maximum 2 pages)
• Two (2) recommendation letters of academic referees
• Written commitment to take the online pre-course

AERC, in partnership with the UCT and the World Bank Research Department, will shortlist eligible
applicants and communicate with the successful awardees.

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: AERC and GIZ, in partnership with the World Bank Research Department.

Important Note: Female students and applicants from less privileged regions as well as candidates with disabilities are especially encouraged to apply.

Asia’s Shifting Alliances

Conn Hallinan

“Boxing the compass” is an old nautical term for locating the points on a magnetic compass in order to set a course. With the erratic winds blowing out of Washington these days, countries all over Asia and the Middle East are boxing the compass and re-evluating traditional foes and old alliances. 

India and Pakistan have fought three wars in the past half-century, and both have nuclear weapons on a hair trigger. But the two countries are now part of a security and trade organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), along with China, Russia and most of the countries of Central Asia. Following the recent elections in Pakistan, Islamabad’s Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, has called for an “uninterrupted continued dialogue” with New Delhi to resolve conflicts and establish “peace and stability” in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s new Prime Minister, Imran Khan, is a critic of the U.S. war in Afghanistan and particularly opposed to the use of U.S. drones to kill insurgents in Pakistan. 

Russia has reached out to the Taliban, which has accepted an invitation for peace talks in Moscow on Sept. 4 to end the 17-year old war. Three decades ago the Taliban were shooting down Russian helicopters with American-made Stinger missiles.

Turkey and Russia have agreed to increase trade and to seek a political solution to end the war in Syria. Turkey also pledged to ignore Washington’s sanctions on Russia and Iran. Less than three years ago, Turkish warplanes downed a Russian bomber, Ankara was denouncing Iran, and Turkey was arming and supporting Islamic extremists trying to overthrow the government of Bashar al Assad.

After years of tension in the South China Sea between China and a host of Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei, on Aug. 2 Beijing announced a “breakthrough” in talks between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (SEATO). After years of bluster— including ship-to-ship face-offs—China and SEATO held joint computer naval games Aug. 2-3. China has also proposed cooperative oil and gas exploration with SEATO members.

Starting with the administration of George W. Bush, the U.S. has tried to lure India into an alliance with Japan and Australia—the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or “quad”—to challenge China in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. The Americans turned a blind eye to India’s violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and dropped the ban on selling arms to New Delhi. The Pentagon even re-named its Pacific Command, “Indo-Pacific Command” to reflect India’s concerns in the Indian Ocean. The U.S. is currently training Indian fighter pilots, and this summer held joint naval maneuvers with Japan and the U.S.—Malabar 18— in the strategic Malacca Straits . 

But following an April Wuhan Summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, New Delhi’s enthusiasm for the Quad appears to have cooled. New Delhi vetoed Australia joining the Malabar war games. 

At June’s Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore, Modi said “India does not see the Indo-Pacific region as a strategy or as a club of limited members,” and pointedly avoided any criticism of China’s behavior in the South China Sea. Given that Indian and Chinese troops have engaged in shoving matches and fistfights with one another in the Doklam border region, Modi’s silence on the Chinese military was surprising.

China and India have recently established a military “hot line,” and Beijing has cut tariffs on Indian products.

During the SCO meetings, Modi and Xi met and discussed cooperation on bringing an end to the war in Afghanistan. India, Pakistan and Russia fear that extremism in Afghanistan will spill over their borders, and the three have joined in an effort to shore up the Taliban as a bulwark against the growth of the Islamic State.

There is also a push to build the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipeline that will eventually terminate in energy-starved India.

India signed the SCO’s “Qingdao Declaration,” which warned that “economic globalization is confronted with the expansion of unilateral protectionist policies,” a statement aimed directly at the Trump administration.

The Modi government also made it clear that New Delhi will not join U.S. sanctions against Iran and will continue to buy gas and oil from Teheran. India’s Defense Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman also said that India would ignore U.S. threats to sanction any country doing business with Russia’s arms industry.

Even such a staunch ally as Australia is having second thoughts on who it wants to align itself with in the Western Pacific. Australia currently hosts U.S. Marines and the huge U.S. intelligence gathering operation at Pine Gap. But China is Canberra’s largest trading partner, and Chinese students and tourists are an important source of income for Australia. 

Canberra is currently consumed with arguments over China’s influence on Australia’s politics, and there is a division in the foreign policy establishment over how closely aligned the Australians should be with Washington, given the uncertain policies of the Trump administration. Some—like defense strategist Hugh White—argue that “Not only is America failing to remain the dominant power, it is failing to retain any substantial strategic role at all.”

White’s analysis is an overstatement. The U.S. is the most powerful military force in the region, and the Pacific basin is still Washington’s number one trade partner. In the balance of forces, Canberra doesn’t count for much. But the debate is an interesting one and a reflection that the Obama administration’s “Asia pivot” to ring China with U.S. allies has not exactly been a slam-dunk.

Of course, one can make too much of these re-alignments. 

There are still tensions between China and India over their borders and competition for the Indian Ocean. Many Indians see the latter as “Mare Nostrum” [“Our Sea”], and New Delhi is acquiring submarines and surface crafts to control it.

 However, since some 80 percent of China’s energy supplies transit the Indian Ocean, China is busy building up ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Djibouti to guard those routes. 

India has recently tested a long-range ICBM—the Agni V—that has the capacity to strike China. The Indians claim the missile has a range of 3000 miles, but the Chinese say it can strike targets 5000 miles away, thus threatening most of China’s population centers.  Since Pakistan is already within range of India’s medium range missiles, the Agni V could only have been developed to target China.

India is also one of the few countries in the region not to endorse China’s immense “One Belt, One Road” infrastructure initiative to link Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe into a vast trading network.

A number of these diplomatic initiatives and re-alignments could easily fail.

Pakistan and India could fall out over Kashmir, and resolving the Afghanistan situation is the diplomatic equivalent of untying the Gordian Knot. The Taliban accepted the Russian invitation, but the Americans dismissed it. So too has the government in Kabal, but that could change, particularly if the Indians push the Afghan government to join the talks. Just the fact that the Taliban agreed to negotiate with Kabal, however, is a breakthrough, and since almost everyone in the region wants this long and terrible war to end, the initiative is hardly a dead letter.

There are other reefs and shoals out there.

Turkey and Russia still don’t trust each other, and while Iran currently finds itself on the same side as Moscow and Ankara, there is no love lost among any of them. But Iran needs a way to block Trump’s sanctions from strangling its economy, and that means shelving its historical suspicions of Turkey and Russia. Both countries say they will not abide by the U.S. sanctions, and the Russians are even considering setting up credit system to bypass using dollars in banking.

The Europeans are already knuckling under to the U.S. sanctions, but the U.S. and the European Union are not the only games in town. Organizations like the SCO, SEATO, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), and Latin America’s Mercosur are creating independent poles of power and influence, and while the U.S. has enormous military power, it no longer can dictate what other countries decide on things like war and trade.

From what direction on the Compass Rose the winds out of Washington will blow is hardly clear, but increasingly a number of countries are charting a course of their own.