Deaths continue to soar as European governments step up back-to-work plans

Alice Summers

Even as coronavirus death tolls continue to rise across the continent, workers in several European countries are being forced back to work. In Spain and Italy this is already underway, and in other countries time-frames are being proposed for sending the population back to workplaces.

An additional 3,328 deaths across Europe brought total fatalities to 83,317, with 29,107 people remaining in a “serious, critical” condition. Another 27,531 cases of the virus were announced Tuesday, bring the total to nearly one million (934,917).

In Spain, many non-essential workers were forced back to work this week after the Easter public holiday, even while hundreds more were dying. Estimates are that between 300,000 and four million workers were forced back to shops, factories, construction sites and offices.

A paramedic walks out of a tent that was set up in front of the emergency ward of the Cremona hospital, northern Italy [Credit: Claudio Furlan/Lapresse via AP, file]

A further 567 people perished in Spain yesterday, on the second day back—up from 517 the previous day—with the total now standing at 18,056. In all, 172,541 infections have been reported in the country, which has the second-highest figure in the world after the United States.

The Socialist Party/Podemos government pledged to make 10 million face masks available for free this week, with police officers and Red Cross volunteers handing them out to commuters at railway and metro stations. Many workers doubt the efficacy of such measures under conditions in which they are forced to work in close contact with colleagues. “I don’t know why … we have to go back if there’s no way of staying apart,” Rafael Antúnez, a construction worker in Madrid, told the media.

Despite the spread of the pandemic, the ruling elites and corporate media in Germany are waging an aggressive campaign to reopen the economy. Yesterday, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn stated, “In the end, it is a matter of finding the right balance between health protection, public life and the economy.” There would be “cautious first steps” towards a new normality. “It’s about living with the virus and learning to live with it.”

The heads of German state governments will meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel today to discuss how to proceed. The major obstacle the ruling class faces as it seeks to implement its criminal “profits before lives” policy is the massive opposition in the working class. According to a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Civey, a large proportion of the German population is for continuing or even intensifying the confinement rules against the pandemic.

The researchers asked the question: “How do you rate the measures taken by politicians to combat the corona pandemic?” 56 percent of the respondents answered that they considered the rules to be appropriate. 29 percent consider them “rather insufficient” or “clearly insufficient.” Just under 15 percent consider the social distancing measures taken by the government to be “rather excessive” or “clearly excessive.”

Germany reported 285 new deaths Tuesday, bringing the total to 3,524. Over 1,200 new infections were announced, bringing total infections to 131,359—one of the highest numbers in Europe.

In Austria, which has been relatively mildly affected by the pandemic compared to other European countries, due in large part to more widespread testing, smaller non-essential shops and businesses as well as garden centres and DIY stores reopened yesterday. Larger department stores and shopping malls are set to open from May 1, while restaurants and hotels could resume operations from the middle of May, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said.

There has been a partial easing of restrictions in the Czech Republic, where some shops reopened last week, and in Denmark, whose government officials announced that some schools and day-care centres would open again today.

Italy has the second highest death toll in the world, at 21,067, with 602 new deaths yesterday. Non-essential shops selling stationery, books and clothes were allowed to reopen on Monday, although most businesses will be closed until May 4. The northern provinces of Lombardy and Piedmont, two of the worst-hit regions in the country, remain under full lockdown.

The Guardia di Finanza and NAS Health and Hygiene Police raided dozens of care homes across Italy, blaming the deaths of hundreds of residents on a failure of staff to wear protective equipment. In Milan’s Pio Albergo Trivulzio care home alone, 143 residents have died of the virus. The heads of several homes have been placed under investigation on suspicion of culpable negligence.

In a televised address Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron extended current lockdown measures until May 11, after which some schools and childcare facilities are set to reopen to allow parents of young children to return to work.

Macron’s address came a day after the National Institute of Health and Medical Research in Paris issued a study warning of a second peak in cases if lockdown measures were lifted too soon, without adequate testing and contact-tracing procedures in place. The study cautioned that if lockdown measures were loosened by the end of May or even June, unless a massive programme of testing and isolation of those infected were implemented, France would see a surge in cases requiring 40 times the current level of intensive care unit (ICU) beds.

The working class across the continent continue to pay the price for the criminal lack of preparedness by European governments and the unsafe conditions under which many are forced to work, with medical workers in particular being infected and dying in droves. This will be exacerbated by the raft of back-to-work orders.

On Tuesday, France passed a grim milestone, more than 100,000 COVID-19 infections. The nation’s death toll is among the highest in Europe, with yesterday’s 762 new fatalities bringing the total to 15,729 deaths—5,400 of these occurring in social care locations such as retirement homes.

In Spain, 26,672 healthcare workers have become infected since the start of the pandemic, roughly 15 percent of total cases in the country. According to Spanish media, the unofficial death toll among medical workers is at least 26.

On Monday night, London Mayor Sadiq Khan reported that 21 transport workers in the capital had died from COVID-19, including 15 London bus workers. Shedding crocodile tears over the lives lost, Khan stated that the news “breaks my heart,” while insisting that transport workers would still not be given personal protective equipment (PPE) unless “advice from public health experts changes.”

This is in line with the Conservative government’s PPE Plan, published on April 10, which maintains that transport workers, among other sections of the workforce, do not require protective masks.

There is growing and widespread outrage in Britain over the government’s refusal to provide adequate protective gear, including to frontline workers in the National Health Service (NHS) who deal directly with the sick. At least 41 healthcare workers have so far died of COVID-19.

NHS workers and supporters from the Health Worker Coronavirus Activists Group have called for a “Day of Action” tomorrow to protest the lack of protective equipment, and are demanding Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s resignation.

Professor Helen Ward, of the Imperial College London Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, expressed the growing anger of workers and scientists across the UK at the government’s criminal response to the pandemic, tweeting Monday:

“It’s very sad that so many people have died and so many more are desperately ill because politicians refused to listen to advice. We said lockdown earlier, we said test, trace, isolate. But they decided they knew better. There will be a reckoning, and it will not be forgiving.”

Professor Ward told the Mirror: “There was a lack of testing, lack of PPE, lack of ventilators and the lack of hospital beds and NHS capacity—a result of 10 years of cuts.”

Total coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals reached 12,107, with another 778 fatalities reported. However, this is a gross underestimate, as the government still refuses to include deaths outside of hospital in its daily statistics. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported yesterday that between the beginning of the outbreak late last year and April 3, it has recorded 6,235 coronavirus-related deaths in England and Wales—around 2,100 more than Department of Health hospital figures for the same period, or 50 percent higher.

One in 10 coronavirus deaths in the week up to April 3 occurred outside of hospitals, the ONS reported, with 406 extra deaths occurring that week not recorded in the government’s figures.

More than half of these deaths occurred in care homes, which are being ravaged by the pandemic. Ninety-two separate care homes reported outbreaks just in the 24 hours up to the government’s daily coronavirus briefing on Monday evening, with over 2,200 homes now reporting at least one case.

These figures mean that in the week ending April 3, the UK recorded its highest-ever weekly death total since records began in 2005—with 16,387 deaths—over one-fifth of which (21 percent) named coronavirus on the death certificate.

World economy to take biggest hit since Great Depression

Nick Beams

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the world economy is entering its worst slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the loss of output will “dwarf” that suffered in the global financial crisis 12 years ago.

Even on the assumption that the second quarter records the sharpest downturn, followed by a recovery and then a rebound next year, the IMF said the world economy will lose $9 trillion in output over 2020 and 2021. This is an amount equivalent to the combined economies of Japan and Germany, the world’s third and fourth largest respectively.

It said under the assumption that the pandemic and the required containment measures peak in the second quarter for most countries, global growth would fall to minus 3 percent this year, a 6.3 percentage fall from the forecast issued in January.

This “major revision over a very short period” made what the IMF has called the Great Lockdown the “worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse that the global financial crisis,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote in a comment on its World Economic Outlook report issued yesterday.

Gopinath said the IMF forecasts were grounded in its “baseline scenario” in which it anticipated global growth would rebound to 5.8 percent next year. But even if that did take place, the recovery would only be “partial,” with the level of economic activity below that projected for 2021, before the virus hit.

However, given the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, the IMF has projected more adverse scenarios. The outbreak may not recede in the second half of the year, leading to longer periods of containment that would worsen financial conditions and a further breakdown of global supply chains.

Under these conditions, Gopinath wrote, “global GDP would fall even further: an additional 3 percent in 2020 if the pandemic is more protracted this year, while, if the pandemic continues into 2021, it may fall next year by an additional 8 percent compared to our baseline scenario.”

The IMF has predicted a contraction of growth in the advanced economies of 6.1 percent with emerging and developing economies, excluding China, expected to experience negative growth rates of between 1 percent and 2 percent in 2020. Income per capita will fall in over 170 countries.

The actual falls could be steeper than estimated by the IMF at this point, with the forecasts of private sector organisations pointing to an even larger contraction. In recent years the IMF has had to revise down its forecasts amid the marked slowdown in the world economy that had developed well before the coronavirus shock.

An example of the possible depth of the collapse was highlighted in a report by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, also issued yesterday. It said if the lockdown of the British economy proceeded for three months then it faced a 35 percent plunge in the second quarter.

It said this was not a forecast but should be taken as a “reference scenario” because it could not predict how long the restrictions on economic activity would need to be maintained.

However, if they stayed in place, education, accommodation and food services would be the hardest hit, with contractions of 90 percent and 85 percent respectively. Similar estimates have been made by government statisticians in France.

The IMF said multilateral cooperation was “vital” for the health of global recovery. But precisely the opposite is taking place.

In a comment on the IMF report, Financial Times economic columnist Martin Wolf wrote that the world was confronting the “biggest economic disaster since the Depression of the 1930s.

“The world has come into this moment with divisions among its great powers and incompetence at the highest levels of government of terrifying proportions.”

He noted that the “negative-sum economic nationalism that has driven Donald Trump throughout his term as US president, and has even emerged within the EU, is a serious danger… If the world economy is broken apart, as happened in response to the Depression, the recovery will be blighted, if not slain.”

Wolf cited the conclusion drawn by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington which stated: “Put simply, in the COVID-19 pandemic, lack of international cooperation will mean that more people will die.”

But just as the insatiable drive for profit via financialisation has undermined public health systems around the world, so the division of the global economy into rival nation-states and great powers is provoking a struggle of each against all. This is rapidly rendering any international collaboration a dead letter.

The IMF also issued a warning about the state of the global financial system saying it had already felt a “dramatic impact” and “further intensification of the crisis would affect global financial stability.”

The massive injection of money by the world’s central banks, amounting to at least $6 trillion, along with their indications of a readiness to do still more, has stabilised markets in recent weeks.

But signs of stress have emerged in major short-term funding markets, including the global market for US dollars. Less developed economies have been hardest hit, experiencing an outflow of about $100 billion, the largest on record.

Major markets could also be impacted if the spread of the pandemic required further containment measures exacerbating the COVID-19 shock.

Asset managers facing large outflows could be forced to sell into falling markets, accelerating the decline. Leveraged investors may face further margin calls, aggravating selling pressures.

“As firms become distressed and default rates climb higher, credit markets may come to a sudden stop, especially in risky segments like high yield, leveraged loan and private debt markets. These markets have expanded rapidly since the global financial crisis, reaching $9 trillion globally, while borrowers’ credit quality, underwriting standards, and investor protections have weakened,” the IMF stated.

In other words, the consequences of the policies of central banks since the global financial crisis are coming home to roost. The continuous supply of ultra-cheap money to enable the continuation of the very same speculation and parasitism that produced the 2008 crash has created the conditions for an even bigger disaster.

The IMF noted that banks have more capital and liquidity than they did 12 years ago but they could be tested in the face of a “sharp slowdown that may turn out to be more severe and lengthy than currently anticipated.”

Measures of bank capitalization based on market prices were now worse in many countries than in 2008, giving rise to a concern that “banks and other financial intermediaries may act as an amplifier should the crisis deepen further.”

COVID-19 devastating the elderly at nursing homes across the US

Kevin Reed

As President Trump stepped onto the White House lawn on Tuesday evening to boast falsely about “substantial progress in our war against the virus,” the truth of the ongoing devastation caused by COVID-19 was revealed in the staggering numbers of sick and dead now being reported in America’s nursing homes, assisted living and long-term care facilities.

The New York Times identified 2,500 senior and elder care locations nationwide with coronavirus cases. The report says, “More than 21,000 residents and staff members at those facilities have contracted the virus, and more than 3,800 have died.”

These numbers are without doubt an underestimation of the real toll that the pandemic is having on this most vulnerable section of the population. As the Times explained, “Many states, counties and facilities have declined to provide information or provided partial information” regarding the scale and scope of the coronavirus on the elderly in nursing homes across the US. In some cases, this information is being kept a secret by government officials for fear of the reaction by the public and the families of those who are living under increasingly deadly circumstances.

One of the 83 patients evacuated from the Magnolia Rehabilitation and Nursing Center in Riverside, Calif. on Wednesday, April 8. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

While all age groups remain susceptible to contracting COVID-19 and can become very sick and die from it, the CDC reports that approximately 75 percent of Americans who have contracted the virus and 78 percent of those who have died from it are 65 years old or older.

Over the last several days, there has been a growing number of reports revealing the horrific situation at nursing home facilities across the country:

• At least 45 residents of the Canterbury Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center in Richmond, Virginia, have died after contracting the virus, the highest known death toll at a single long-term care facility in the US. According to National Public Radio, more than half of the 102 outbreaks of coronavirus in Virginia are in nursing homes. Although the Virginia Department of Health has declined to release the names of all of the facilities, it has reported that more than 600 residents have been infected.
  
• In New York City, approximately 90 residents have died at two Brooklyn nursing homes. According to a nurse who spoke to the New York Post at the Chateau at Brooklyn Rehabilitation & Nursing Center in Sheepshead Bay, “These places don’t have morgues. They were putting them downstairs but now a lot of them are being left in their rooms. What else can you do right now?” The New York Department of Health released a report on Monday that said a total of 2,722 people had died in nursing homes statewide.
  
• Eighty-three residents of the Magnolia Rehabilitation and Nursing Center in Riverside, California, were evacuated on April 8 when the facility became overrun with five staff and one third of those living there testing positive for the coronavirus. According to the office of California Governor Gavin Newsom last Friday, 400 residential care facilities and 1,266 residents are infected with COVID-19 statewide.
  
• Every single one of the 26 nursing homes located in the city of Detroit has cases of COVID-19 among both their residents and workers, according to recent reports from the Detroit Health Department. On Friday there were 191 cases of the coronavirus reported in Detroit nursing homes and 20 deaths. Eight more nursing home-related deaths occurred in the city over the weekend, according to Detroit’s Democratic Mayor Mike Duggan.
  
• There have been 44 veteran residents of the Soldiers’ Home in Holyoke, Massachusetts, who have died from COVID-19, the majority of them over the past two weeks. At least 100 residents and 79 employees at the 247-bed state-run nursing facility have tested positive for coronavirus. Staff have reported that they were not provided with masks while tests results were pending for one resident, and when they came back positive, they were not told immediately.

With dozens of similar reports in urban, suburban and rural communities across the country, the pandemic is revealing a disturbing fact of life in the US: the nursing home and senior care industry is a vast network of privately owned facilities that are understaffed, paying low wages to workers who are not given adequate training or resources.

The nursing care industry in America has an estimated market value of $139 billion. There are approximately 32,000 establishments, and the industry employs an estimated 1.7 million people. According to an industry analysis published by IBISWorld, “In the past five years, the industry has benefited from an increasingly aging population, which requires greater health care services. Individuals aged 65 and older make up about 90.0 percent of residents at nursing care facilities, so as the population continues to grow older on average, facilities are expected to serve an increasing number of residents.”

Giant corporations have been cashing in on the aging of the US population and, through financial arrangements like government disbursement of Medicaid and Medicare funds for nursing home care, enormous fortunes are being amassed while the quality of life for the largely working class residents steadily declines, as the dire consequences of the pandemic is proving.

Genesis Healthcare is among the largest of the corporations in the “short-term post-acute, rehabilitation, skilled nursing and long-term care services” business. It has annual revenues of $5.7 billion and operates approximately 500 skilled nursing centers and assisted/senior living residences in 34 states with 61,300 employees. George V. Hager, Jr. is the CEO of Genesis Healthcare, Inc., and his total compensation in 2018 was $2,227,887, with $1.2 million in cash salary and the balance in corporate stocks.

COVID-19 deaths break US record as virus spreads through every state

Benjamin Mateus

On Tuesday, 2,349 people succumbed to COVID-19 in the United States, in the highest daily death toll in the US—or any other country. But with the US media promoting the narrative that the pandemic was showing “glimmers of hope” and “hopeful signs,” this staggering toll did not even make the evening news.

With Wyoming reporting its first COVID-19 death Monday, every state in the country now has a recorded death from the virus. The state of New York reported 778 deaths Tuesday, New Jersey 362, Michigan 166, Massachusetts 113 and Louisiana 129.

The state of New York has reported 202,208 cases, approximately one third of all US cases. Its death toll stands at a harrowing 10,834. However, this figure does not take into account that New York City has added 3,700 additional people to its list of those who have presumably died from COVID-19 at hospitals, nursing homes and long-term care facilities, but were never tested. The New York City health department released figures that now place the number of deaths in the city alone at over 10,000.

Elmhurst Hospital, Andrew Lichstein (Getty images)

The pandemic has led to a rise in collateral deaths, or deaths not directly related to COVID-19, but to the inability of the health system and first responders to focus attention on the basic health needs of the population due to a lack of resources. Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City said last week, “The driver of this huge uptick in deaths at home is COVID-19. And some people are dying directly of it, and some people are dying indirectly of it, but it is the tragic 'X' factor here.”

Massachusetts has climbed into the third position as the number of new cases has grown. Per capita, it is just behind the state of Louisiana, which recorded 129 deaths today to surpass the 1,000 mark. Governor Charlie Baker said that Massachusetts is bracing for a surge in cases expected in mid-to-late April, with an anticipated 2,500 new cases per day.

The state of Michigan, with over 27,000 cases, has a case fatality rate of 6.5 percent and over 1,768 deaths. Yesterday, the state reported 166 new deaths.

In a gruesomely emblematic scene, photos taken by emergency room staff show bodies in white bags piled in closets and vacant spaces, and strewn on the floor because the morgue was too full to take more corpses. Yet, a hospital spokesman told a CNN reporter, “Surge plans are in place at our hospital to handle the increase in inpatient volumes to ensure we provide the safest and most appropriate care for our patients.”

Corpses piled in storate at Detroit's Sinai-Grace hospital

Detroit’s convention center has been turned into a field hospital and began to receive patients on Tuesday. So far, eight patients have been transferred to begin relieving overcrowded hospitals. There are no ventilators or ICU beds in the facility. The center has 970 beds with patient support services, showers, toilets and a command center including a pharmacy. Mayor Mike Duggan said, “The TCF Center will start off-loading a lot of that stress with 50 today and 50 tomorrow.”

The epidemic has taken a heavy toll on the state of Louisiana, with over 21,500 cases and more than 1,000 deaths. Louisiana’s case fatality index is near 5 percent. Governor John Bel Edwards noted concern that though the number of daily cases has been declining, several groups recently gathered over Easter weekend to celebrate the holiday.

“Today’s death count is the largest we have reported in a single day since this COVID-19 outbreak started and it brings the number of Louisianans we have lost to more than 1,000,” he said. “That’s 1,013 people who are someone’s mother, father, sister, or brother or child or aunt or uncle.” He appeared visibly morose during his press briefing.

The neighboring state of Texas added 736 new cases, topping 15,000 cases. Mississippi now has 3,000 cases, adding 145 new cases, and has 111 deaths.

Despite the disastrous daily death toll, the Trump administration and state governments are working to reopen businesses as rapidly as possible. These moves take place despite the fact that the testing, quarantine and contact tracing measures necessary to contain the disease are not in place.

More bodies piled haphazardly in the hospital

“The worst is not over,” the World Health Organization said Monday. Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned, “As COVID-19 accelerates very fast, it decelerates much more slowly. The way down is much slower than the way up. That means control measures must be lifted slowly and with control—it cannot happen all at once. Control measures can only be lifted if right public health measures are in place, including a significant capacity for contact tracing.”

However, despite Trump’s constant boasting, the US has tested less than 0.9 percent of the population, and there are reports throughout the country of ill people unable to obtain testing.

At a White House briefing yesterday, President Trump announced that all funding to the World Health Organization would be suspended. He sought to place the blame for the pandemic—which has been massively exacerbated by his administration’s disastrous response—on the United Nations agency and on China, with which he claimed the World Health Organization was too friendly.

Africa Union/EDCTP Fellowship 2020 for outbreak and epidemic response in sub-Saharan Africa

Application Deadline: 30th July 2020

Eligible Countries: sub-Saharan African countries

About the Award: Proposals can be submitted by a single institution or consortium of institutions which provide Master’s training in epidemiology for 10 to 15 excellent, early- to mid-career researchers (“EPI Fellows”) based in sub-Saharan Africa and working in a relevant field.
The aim is to establish an African cohort of epidemiologists by supporting institutions in sub-Saharan Africa and Europe that provide master’s degree training in epidemiology and biostatistics, as part of Africa CDC’s framework for public health workforce development.
Reliable epidemiological data is often unavailable or severely limited in resource-limited settings in Africa. This knowledge gap is further aggravated by a shortage of skilled personnel in epidemiology and biostatistics to efficiently monitor, analyse and interpret epidemiological data to inform policy and decision-making. Training programmes are urgently needed to develop a cohort of epidemiologists across Africa and beyond, who can work in collaboration with their Ministries of Health or the National Public Health Institutes (NPHIs), as well as with relevant regional and international organisations, to collectively conduct routine surveillance and public health research and respond timely to disease outbreaks.

Type: Fellowship, Grants

Eligibility: Proposals should include institutions with a proven track record in the provision of high-quality master’s training with clear local and regional collaborations with NPHIs (or similar agencies), Ministries of Health and other academic institutions. Proposals must demonstrate the following:

• A high-quality master’s programme in epidemiology and biostatistics relevant to infectious diseases of importance in sub-Saharan Africa.
• An open, fair and transparent procedure for selecting EPI Fellows based in different geographical regions of Africa, and with appropriate gender balance, for entry into the master’s programme.
• Robust mentorship and supervision mechanisms to support EPI Fellows through to timely successful course completion.
• The master’s programme must include a research component, which must be conducted in a country in sub-Saharan Africa, in collaboration with local or regional NPHIs (and/or affiliated agencies) or Ministries of Health.

Proposals should also include support for meetings and conferences for the trainees to participate in an annual networking meeting organised by Africa CDC, as well as the biennial EDCTP Forum.  Tuition fees, enrolment fees or other types of university charges are not eligible for reimbursement by EDCTP.
Due to the extraordinary global crisis of COVID-19 that is also affecting African countries, this topic should also be considered by applicants.
The proposed action should start no later than 1 October 2021 and must be completed before the end of 2024.

Number of Awards:10-15

Value of Award: The total call budget is EUR 5,000,000 with up to EUR 50,000 per student (see call text for full details).

How to Apply: Go to the Call for proposals

• It is important to go through all application requirements in the Award Webpage (see Link below) before applying.

Visit Award Webpage for Details

Re-Engaging Russia

Ed Corcoran

With the coronavirus already infecting over a million people and severely impacting the global economy, there is a new recognition of a need to reduce global tensions, what the UN secretary general has called a coronavirus truce. The situation is particularly stressful for Russia which only initiated a lockdown the end of March and is probably just at the beginning of an infection curve. This coincides with an oil price war with Saudi Arabia, badly impacting a Russian economy heavily dependent on oil. President Trump spoke with both leaders, threatening to impose tariffs if there is no resolution. But with significantly reduced demand due to the coronavirus, prices will certainly remain low.

This stressful period also coincides with an effort by Vladimir Putin to extend his presidency. Parliament has already approved necessary constitutional changes; a required referendum, originally scheduled for April, has been postponed and is already attracting significant political opposition.

Overall, Russia already faces opposition over inadequate coronavirus measures, a major drop in oil revenue and a looming political crisis. Together these provide a significant opportunity for re-engagement with the United States.

Erosion in U.S.-Russian Relations

Putin consolidated his position by blaming the West for Russian economic problems, skillfully appealing to traditional Russian ambivalence. Stressing the need to counter NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, he rejuvenated the army, a source of pride for the average Russian. Putin has announced a major increase in defense spending, boasting of powerful new weapons that could make American defenses obsolete. His belligerent military emphasis is fundamentally a show for the Russian people. He needs a visible enemy to distract public attention from his plutocratic elite, from internal repression, and from actions undermining Russia’s professed democratic ideals. His central fear is not some Western intrusion, but internal unrest. This is the basic reason he reacted so strongly to the Rose Revolution in 2003 and the Orange Revolution the following year that removed pro-Russian governments in Georgia and Ukraine. His central objective is retaining power, while provoking the West is a means to that end.

Putin’s broadly confrontational stance, which emphasizes Russia’s rightful position as a world leader, has gained domestic support. But there have also been negative consequences beyond Russia’s borders. By supporting breakaway provinces in Moldavia and Georgia as well as annexing the Crimea and backing up an occupation of eastern Ukraine, Russia has undermined democratic movements on Russia’s periphery. Strong Russian support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad resulted in thousands of deaths and major refugee flows into Europe. As the United States pulled out of northern Syria, abandoning its Kurdish allies, Russia surged in as the new powerbroker. Closer relations with an increasingly autocratic Turkey deteriorated as the two militaries clashed. Across the globe, Russian support has allowed Venezuela’s Nicholas Maduro to remain in power. This effort is particularly sensitive to the oil market; one of Russia’s major oil companies, Rosneft, is just recently exiting its investments there.

Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections reached well over 100 million Americans with false, misleading, and inflammatory postings on Facebook, messages on Twitter, and over 1,000 videos on YouTube. Although America is vulnerable to such deceptive postings, Russia is vulnerable to truthful ones. Russian meddling may well have been retaliation for the Panama Papers, the release of thousands of documents from a Panamanian law firm that exposed corrupt financial ties of several prominent Russians. A furious Putin attributed the leak of the papers to Western intelligence. This allowed him to depict the revelations as simply Western propaganda but also demonstrated his sensitivity to exposure of corruption.

The United States has a considerable advantage in open broadcasting. For almost 80 years, Radio Liberty has been a major challenge to Russia, becoming the most listened-to Western radio station in the country. In 2014, Radio Liberty launched a new Russian-language TV news program, Current Time, which has reported on such sensitive topics as Russian intervention in Syria, the poisoning of a Soviet refugee in London, and the Panama Papers. In 2018, its website had over 90 million visits, its Facebook page had some 600,000 followers, and it was active on YouTube, Twitter, and other social networks.

Democratic ideals have strong resonance in Russia. The more difficult everyday economic situations become, the more the government has to suppress unrest over low living standards. Independent candidates have made electoral politics increasingly competitive, and the government reacts with voter suppression. Over 1,000 people recently protested in Moscow over barring opposition candidates from the city ballot.  Open broadcasts have a significant potential to influence developments in Russia. A current wave of arrests against journalists vividly illustrates the Kremlin’s concern about popular protests, while thousands recently marched to mark five years since the assassination of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov. It is understandable that the Russian populace wholeheartedly embraced a strong leader who brought stability and pride back to Russia. But discontent over corruption and economic conditions have been growing. Health and demographic issues and a reliance on raw material sales downgrade the potential for economic development.

Presidents Trump and Putin have had a longstanding personal rapport, but the White House has carefully controlled details of their phone calls. During their most recent conversation on March 30, 2020, the two leaders agreed that the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia did not suit either of them. Russia expressed willingness to reduce oil output. There was also discussion on Venezuela and the need for an eventual democratic transition. And they agreed to work together on addressing the coronavirus. Two days later, a Russian military plane with needed medical supplies landed in New York. “We can provide emergency equipment needed to save Americans,” a Russian spokesman said. “We are sure that the U.S., if necessary, will also assist us and we will gladly accept the aid.”

This is clearly an ideal time for the two sides to re-engage.

Steps Forward

The West should now do what it should have done 30 years ago: integrate Russia into the industrialized world. Western open broadcasting can make Russian corruption and repression as transparent as possible, exposing the underlying reason for low economic levels and the total fiction of a Western threat. NATO current focus on Russia as an enemy only supports Putin’s threat narrative, while some misstep could actually result in armed conflict. It also drains huge amounts of resources from positive uses (including disaster preparations) to supporting interminable wars.

NATO should issue a strong statement de-emphasizing military operations and focusing on Russian political, social, and economic integration into the industrialized world. By demonstrating that it is not a threat, NATO can emphasize instead economic collaboration.

Russian ambivalence toward the West has been a driving force for centuries. A real move to integration could have strong appeal to a Russian public increasingly dissatisfied with the internal situation. Russian protestors want democracy, but have nothing to rally around. The United States should give them something, actively inviting Russia to join in development efforts. Programs that promote real development and provide Russia its own position on the world stage can have a strong appeal to the Russian people.

Overall, it is economic pressures, opportunities and incentives that could most effectively move Russia toward a more democratic and cooperative posture. A NATO outreach policy needs to be supported by significant actions. The coronavirus will certainly pressure NATO to modify its standard of 2 percent of GDP supporting defense expenditures. A small portion, perhaps initially 2 percent of NATO’s budget, could be dedicated to a new Russian Partnership Fund to improve Russia’s internal economy and increase collaboration. The fund could work with Russian representatives to identify projects that could have maximum impact for minimal cost while simultaneously demonstrating project transparency and accountability.

The United States and Russia already have an existing partnership in joint operations on space exploration as well as continuing cooperation on securing nuclear materials and knowledge. This approach can be expanded to include assistance with infrastructure issues, medical issues, educational exchanges, environmental issues, and other scientific matters. Russia, for example, has a totally inadequate highway system while the United States has deep experience building a nation-wide transportation network. Investment projects outside the oil industry are badly needed, but that has been a main focus for Russia for years. And, of course, the coronavirus is also making medical shortcomings in both countries increasingly visible. Diplomatically, collaboration with Russia could help resolve confrontations in Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ukraine, and Syria.

Rather than promote a new Cold War, now is the time to definitively end the last one.

Australian government demands staged reopening of the school system

Erika Zimmer

The Australian government is pressing for schools across the country to reopen, as part of a wider move to lift social distancing and other restrictions put in place for the coronavirus pandemic.

Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan last week sent a letter to organisations representing private schools, threatening to cut their funding if they fail to re-open and provide some in-person classroom learning. Tehan cited his powers under the Australian Education Act to impose conditions on schools’ funding when he believes them to be “in the public interest.”

A condition of the public funding of the private school system, Tehan insisted, was that from the commencement of term two, private schools were to “provide a physical classroom environment for the children of parents who choose to access it.”

Over the last four decades, successive Liberal and Labor governments have poured vast sums of public money into private schools, including the most elite, where annual tuition fees per student are more than $40,000. As a result, Australia has one of the most unequal school systems among the advanced capitalist countries, with more than 40 percent of secondary students attending private schools.

Several of these schools unilaterally shut their doors during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, while public schools continued to function as usual, with no additional protections put in place to ensure the safety of school staff and students.

From the first outbreak of COVID-19 infections in Australia, the Liberal-National government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison insisted that schools remain open. This was initially justified on the pretext that children would be safer in schools than moving through the community. The real agenda, however, was to ensure there was minimal disruption to corporate operations. Open schools are seen as an essential aspect of maintaining the workforce in place, delivering continuing profits for business.

The government is now pressing the state governments, which are responsible for running the different public-school systems in the country, to return to normal operations.

This is despite the fact that the coronavirus pandemic is yet to be defeated, and no public schools are equipped with proper personal protective equipment (PPE), thermometers and COVID-19 testing facilities. The ruling elite’s indifference to the safety of educators and other school workers is on display across the country.

In Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, the state Labor government has directed schools to reopen for term two this week, despite Premier Daniel Andrews on Sunday extending the coronavirus state of emergency until May 11. The Labor government has insisted that students who can remain at home must do so, with public school teachers expected to provide online learning provisions.

Under the Victorian education department’s “Transition to Flexible and Remote Learning” memo circulated to teachers and endorsed by the Australian Education Union, principals have been directed to “consult with staff to identify those willing and able to work on-site, either on an ongoing or rostered basis.” Where on-site learning is provided, “hand sanitiser will be available at the entry points to classrooms” and physical distancing implemented “where feasible,” with a class size ratio of 1 teacher to 10 students.

Teacher guidelines are to “avoid sharing office space,” use “hygiene supplies and practice good hand washing and cough-sneeze hygiene,” keep windows open, and practice physical distancing.

In addition, school bus services in rural and regional centres are to continue for students attending schools, including the continuation of the Students with Disabilities Transport Program. Bus operators are to ensure “high touch surfaces are regularly disinfected.”

These are all grossly inadequate measures to ensure school staff safety. To the extent that any schools are required to remain open to allow health, emergency, and other essential workers with children to continue working, the sites should function as high-risk, mass testing zones. Proper PPE ought to be provided. All children and staff should have their temperature taken multiple times a day, with immediate coronavirus tests available. Instead of this, however, in Victoria and across Australia, it is largely being left to individual teachers to work out their own safety precautions.

In the Northern Territory (NT), Chief Minister Michael Gunner announced on April 8 that the territory’s schools would “open as normal” in term two, which is scheduled to commence on 20 April. Education Minister Selena Uibo insisted that attendance was compulsory, though parents and caregivers will have the option of educating their children from home.

The NT population is especially vulnerable with about 30 percent of its inhabitants indigenous. Tens of thousands of Aborigines suffer horrendous poverty and are unable to access decent housing, education, transport, safe drinking water and other basic social needs. Fifty percent of adult Aboriginal Australians suffer from major chronic diseases, and one in eight live in overcrowded housing. An outbreak of the virus would devastate Aboriginal communities.

Other states and territories have also announced preparations for online learning provisions for term two, with all or some schools remaining open for children of parents who have to work and for vulnerable children. The second term commences on April 20 in Queensland, April 27 in New South Wales and South Australia, April 28 in Western Australia, Tasmania, and Australian Capital Territory.

The Australian Education Union (AEU) and other state teacher unions have done nothing to protect the safety of their members. The focus of the unions is on collaborating with the federal and state governments, and on ensuring that widespread teacher hostility to unsafe working conditions does not erupt.

To the extent that the teacher unions have any concerns about what is happening, it is that governments are not working closely enough with them. In the Northern Territory, for example, the AEU bureaucracy complained that the government was “failing to consult” with it. In Victoria, the AEU have fully endorsed the state government’s totally inadequate measures for on-site learning insisting that teachers must carefully read the department’s provisions with educators expected to sign off on them in every school.

In New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, NSW Teachers Federation President Angelo Gavrielatos broadcast his cooperation. “We need a staggered return to work,” he said. “Teachers are awaiting advice on lifting restrictions.” Gavrielatos outlined his suggestion that face-to-face teaching start with Year 12 and Kindergarten, with other years phased in over subsequent weeks.

Gavrielatos added that there needed to be an “orderly transition” for schools. The union chief means a return to business as usual without any opposition emerging from teachers and education workers, who remain alarmed and outraged over the demands for a return to work when no serious measures have been put in place to ensure their safety.

Teacher opposition continues to develop, with widespread discussion continuing online via social media platforms. There have been calls to resign from the unions, and organise walkouts or other industrial action. The most conscious opposition has been organised by the Committee for Public Education’s (CFPE), which organised a successful online meeting on April 5.

As schools return in term two, the CFPE again calls for the establishment of Action Committees in schools and working-class communities. These need to develop the widest discussion among school staff and other workers, including cleaners, bus drivers and health workers, on the necessary measures to develop a scientifically- and medically-based long term plan for the education system, with the guiding principle being that human life takes priority over corporate profit.

Indonesian authorities announce limited restrictions, despite the alarming spread of COVID-19

Owen Howell

While still refusing to impose a full lockdown, the Indonesian government introduced further social restrictions last week, in a bid to stem the spread of COVID-19.

An order was signed on Tuesday enabling the closure of schools and all non-essential workplaces in Jakarta, the nation’s epicentre of the virus outbreak. Apart from the commercial shutdown, a ban on public gatherings of more than five people was announced, as well as increased police patrols to enforce compliance with physical distancing.

The new restrictions, however, did not include a ban on domestic travel, even though there is the prospect of a mass exodus from major cities.

On Sunday Indonesia reported its largest daily jump in coronavirus cases and fatalities, with 399 new infections and 46 more deaths. This brings the total to 4,241 confirmed cases and 373 deaths, the highest death toll in Asia outside China. Greater Jakarta, the capital’s metropolitan area, is the source of two-thirds of all reported cases and deaths throughout the country.

The high death rate of roughly 8.9 percent, together with the country’s limited testing capacity, indicates that the real numbers are likely to be much greater. The current figures are based on only 16,500 tests, in a country of over 273 million people. Indonesia has climbed from zero confirmed cases to 1,200 in less than a month, and over 100 deaths.

Many cases and deaths are likely going undetected as Jakarta experienced a 40 percent rise in funerals in March. Nearly 4,400 burials occurred throughout the month, according to a Reuters review of statistics from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries. It will never be known for certain how many of these were coronavirus victims.

Hospital staff and undertakers in Jakarta have taken special precautions with the bodies of 438 people they suspect died from COVID-19 between March 6 and April 2, according to the governor’s office.

In preparation for an expected wave of deaths over the coming weeks, local administrations are escalating construction of burial plots across their communities. Coffin makers in Jakarta have been ordered by provincial authorities to drastically increase their output.

The enormous scale of the crisis in Indonesia is a direct result of the government’s criminal neglect when the virus outbreak first emerged over two months ago. The Jakarta Post revealed in a series of articles that the national and provincial governments knew about a surge of pneumonia-related cases in January, but kept the facts hidden from the public.

Anies Baswedan, governor of Jakarta, reflected later on the government policy to conceal the truth, saying in a radio interview: “We never told the media. I got the data every two days and the numbers went up daily. I knew then we must have [coronavirus] cases.”

The government only announced the first cases on March 2. Shortly after the announcement, President Joko Widodo was compelled to admit that authorities had withheld information from the public to “avoid panic.”

Following the first reported cases, government officials pursued a campaign of trivialising the deadly nature of the virus by spreading false information.

The home affairs minister suggested people could avoid contracting the virus by eating bean sprouts and broccoli. Widodo himself promoted drinking jamu, a traditional herbal drink. As recently as last Friday, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan, urged people not to worry about the pandemic, referring to unsubstantiated claims that coronavirus cannot survive in tropical climates.

The lack of government efforts to seriously educate the public on the danger of the virus has forced general practitioners and medical students to travel through poor neighbourhoods, providing much needed information on social distancing and personal protection for those who still have to work.

In the meantime, a deficit in hospital beds, medical staff and intensive care facilities has raised concerns the coronavirus crisis could push Indonesia’s health system to the brink.

Indonesia had fewer than four doctors and 12 hospital beds for every 10,000 people, according to World Health Organization (WHO) data from 2017. Moreover, it is estimated to have less than three intensive care beds per 100,000 people.

At least 24 doctors working with coronavirus patients were confirmed dead by the Indonesian Medical Association on Monday. This shocking discovery meant that the death toll among doctors has doubled since last week.

Medical workers, in city hospitals and rural centres alike, have no alternative but to wear cheap plastic raincoats due to the shortage of protective gear and hazmat suits.

Andreas Harsono of Human Rights Watch related the experience of a nurse at the Cilandak Clinic in South Jakarta. She told him that the nurses have been divided into teams of three, but each team has only one hazmat suit. The other two workers were advised to use aprons for protection, and to wash their uniforms after each use.

Rural areas, in particular, will struggle to cope with the accelerating community transmission of the virus due to their depleted and poorly-equipped health facilities. According to news website Liputan 6, only 132 hospitals throughout the vast archipelago have the capacity to care for COVID-19 patients. In some provinces, such as the densely populated Sulawesi Tenggara, only one hospital is equipped to deal with the virus. At least 10 provinces, including Maluku and Papua, lack coronavirus facilities altogether.

The partial shutdown of Jakarta is predicted to send 2.5 million laid-off workers back home to the countryside.

In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Juharno, a manual labourer living in Jakarta, said he planned to return to his hometown in West Java with his wife and child. “I will be out of work soon with no income. Back in my village, I won’t at least have to worry about food as it’s the harvest time… I don’t want to wait and then be told later that I am not eligible [for cash payments]. I have no income and still got a family to feed,” he said.

In an attempt to appease the anger of 5.2 million low-wage and informal workers who have lost their jobs, the government has promised meagre cash benefits of up to $US62 for the next four months.

Already many workers are leaving the cities. But in May the annual tradition of mudik, a mass migration of Muslims from cities to their ancestral villages during the festival of Idul Fitri, will involve tens of millions across the nation. With an estimated 33.4 million people moving to the country this year, the mudik could drastically worsen the spread of COVID-19 across Indonesia.

Last weekend, a report published by a team of experts from the University of Indonesia warned that as many as 240,000 people could die from the virus by the end of the month.

The Widodo administration announced last week that the mudik would nevertheless proceed, as the purchase of gifts and souvenirs is a huge source of revenue for businesses. Minister Luhut Pandjaitan admitted at a press conference that economic considerations had played a central role in the policy, despite the huge risks the migration poses to the lives of millions of workers and peasants.

The government’s refusal to implement stricter lockdown measures is motivated by its concern over the pandemic’s impact on economic activity. Indonesia’s growth rate is expected to drop by half to 2.3 percent this year as a result. The financial crisis triggered by the virus has battered the country’s currency, stocks and bonds.

In mid-March, the government’s initial indifference to the coronavirus and its effect on public health rapidly changed into a panicked attempt to rescue the failing economy. This resulted in a stimulus package, which included corporate tax cuts and the removal of the budget deficit cap. Channel News Asia reported the amount at $US25.3 billion, with a mere $US4.5 billion allocated to funding healthcare, while the rest was aimed at propping up big business.

Such a stark prioritisation of private profit over public health underlies what has become an international trend among ruling elites: the inability of the capitalist system to meet the essential needs of working people.