25 Apr 2018

Hideyo Noguchi Africa Prize for Practitioners in Medical Fields (100 million Yen Prize) 2019

Application Deadline: 31st July 2018

To Be Taken At (Country): The Laureates will be announced in 2019 and the award ceremony will be held during the Seventh Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD7).

About the Award: The aim is to honor those who took over Dr. Noguchi’s spirit and made remarkable accomplishments in the field of medicine research and medical activities for Africa and to improve the health and welfare of people living in Africa and eventually human beings will do.

Categories: The Prize consists of two categories:
  • Medical Research which honors individual(s)
  • Medical Services which honors individual(s) and organization(s).
Scope
  • Medical Research
    • Basic medical research
    • Clinical medical research
    • Research in all fields of life science closely related to medicine
  • Medical Services
    • Field-level medical/public health activities to combat diseases and advance public health
Type: Award

Eligibility: 
  • No distinction will be made based on the nationality, age or gender of the nominees, who are limited to people still living.
  • Nominee eligibility for the two categories are as follows:
    • Medical Research
      • Nominations are in principle to be for one individual. In the case of joint research, however, a maximum of three individuals will be considered.
    • Medical Services
      • In the case of nominating an organization, nominations are limited to one currently active organization.
      • Nominations are in principle to be one individual or one organization per activity. Under exceptional circumstances, however, when more than one individual or organization work as a team, a maximum of three individuals or organizations will be considered.
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: The Prize consists of a citation, a medal and 100 million yen (equivalent to about one million US dollars).

How to Apply: 
WORD(72KB) → URL: https://www.jsps.go.jp/j-noguchiafrica/data/3rdNoguchiPrizeNOMINATION_FORM.docx
PDF(22KB)open a new window

  • For medical research nominations, please use the JSPS electronic application system. (If not possible, please put your nomination in MS WORD or PDF format and email it to the below address.)
  • For medical services nominations, please put your nomination in MS WORD or PDF format and email it to the below address.
  • If necessary, nominations may be submitted by postal mail.
It is necessary to go through the Application process on the Program Webpage (see Link below) before applying.

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: Hideyo Noguchi Foundation.

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Internship Programme for Students Worldwide 2019

Application Deadline: 30th April 2018

Eligible Countries: NATO Member countries and Partner countries in the World.

NATO Partner countries in Africa: Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt

To Be Taken At (Country):

About the Award: NATO offers 2 Internship Programmes:
    1. NATO-funded Programme: open once a year to all eligible candidates.
    2. GRANT-funded Programme: open all throughout the year to candidates who are awarded a scholarship by their university or a governmental institution.
The NATO Internship Programme has four main objectives:
  • To provide the Organisation with access to the latest theoretical and technical knowledge that the intern can apply through practical work assignments, as well as with additional staff resources.
  • To provide interns with an opportunity to learn from the NATO community and get a better understanding and a more balanced view of the Organisation.
  • To contribute to creating a more diverse workforce.
  • To expand understanding of NATO in Alliance countries.
Type: Internship

Eligibility: In order to apply for an internship at NATO, you must fulfil all criteria outlined below on the application date:
  • Age: you will be over 21 years of age
  • Nationality: you will be a citizen of a NATO Member State.
  • Educational status:
    • you will be a university student: you have completed at least two years successfully and are enrolled in your third year or
    • you will have obtained your highest degree less than a year ago
  • Languages: you will have proficiency in one of the two official NATO languages (English and French), and a working knowledge of the other will be considered as an asset. Knowledge of other languages will be an advantage as specified in the internship description.
  • If you are a national of NATO partner countries (PFP/EAPC), contact your Delegation at NATO Headquarters directly for information on potential internships within the Delegation.
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: 
  1. Internship stipend: If you are selected through the NATO-funded programme, you will receive a monthly stipend of 1,049.65€ (based on 2018).
  2. Travel: Upon the confirmation of the start date of internship by the Internship Office, we will provide you with a prepaid flight/train ticket (based on a return economy ticket and for an amount of up to 1,200€). If you travel by car, we will be reimburse you travel costs as well.
  3. Leave: You will be entitled to have 15 days of leave for the full period of 6 months.
  4. In-house training: During the internship, we organize an Induction programme and various briefings to provide you with an overview of NATO’s activities and structure. The monthly briefings constitute a unique opportunity to meet and discuss topics of interest with highly experienced staff across the Alliance. Visits to external institutions are also part of the training programme.
Duration of Program: 6 months

How to Apply: Apply Here
If you are a national of NATO partner countries (PFP/EAPC), contact your Delegation at NATO Headquarters directly for information on potential internships within the Delegation.

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: NATO

UNESCO #MyAfricanHeritage Instagram Photo Contest (Win a trip to Tanzania) 2018

Application Deadline: 30th April 2018

Eligible Countries: African countries

Type: Contest

Eligibility: Open to 18 – 28 years old

Selection Criteria: Entries to the competition will be evaluated keeping in mind the following criteria:
  • Creativity
    • Is the photo original and aesthetically pleasing? We are looking for creative stories and unique photo shots!
  • Content
    • What is your connection to the site? The World Heritage site should be clearly identified in the photo.
  • Composition
    • Does it capture the exceptional character of the site? We will evaluate the composition of the photographs submitted
Number of Awards: 10

Value of Award:
  • 1st Prize: Trip to United Republic of Tanzania
    • To visit two World Heritage sites: Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Serengeti National Park
  • 2nd Prize: Trip to South Africa
    • To visit the World Heritage site of Robben Island
  • 3rd Prize: Trip to Cabo Verde
    • To visit  the World Heritage site of  Cidade Velha,  Historic Centre of Ribeira Grande
  • The Top 4  to 10 Winners
    • The top 4 to 10 winners will have their photos showcased on the World Heritage and the African World Heritage Fund websites
Duration of Program: The winners of the competition will be announced on the African World Heritage Day, 5 May 2018

How to Apply: Share your photo of an African site inscribed on the World Heritage List with the hashtag #MyAfricanHeritage and follow us on Instagram to have the chance to win one of the prizes.

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: UNESCO

World Summit Award (WSA) Young Innovators Award for Young Social Entrepreneurs 2018

Application Deadline: 31st August 2018

Eligible Countries: UN Member Countries

About the Award: WSA Young Innovators is a special recognition for young social entrepreneurs under 30 years of age, using ICTs to take action on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). Together with the WSA winners of each year, they are honored as outstanding digital innovation with social impact.

Type: Entrepreneurship

Eligibility: Eligible for young citizens of all UN member states, WSA Young Innovators is open to every start-up, social entrepreneur, NGO, student or individual!
The participation in the WSA Young Innovators is open to any entrepreneur, company, student group or project team – at least one of the founding members and the majority of the team must be under the age of 30 (born on or after January 1, 1988).
  • Submissions for the WSA Young Innovators can contain all mobile and web-based projects, such as: apps, webpages, applications for wearables, kiosk installations, sms based products, games and interactive productions. There is no limitation regarding the platforms or channels the projects work with.
  • All submissions have to be launched products. No drafts, ideas or unfinished projects can be accepted.
The WSA Young Innovators call is eligible for projects that:
  • Are deveolped by young innovators under the age of 30
  • Offer digital solutions to any of the UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Deliver content rich digital solutions to the user including individuals, businesses and organisations
  • have a strong digital component: websites,apps, sms based solutions, IoT, wearables etc.
  • are market ready or already launched on the market – no ideas or concepts are elidgible
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: The World Summit Awards are a non-monetary award system with a focus on sustainable knowledge transfer through a worldwide network. This means that winners benefit not from a one time financial reward, but a lifelong partnership and integration.
Winners of the World Summit Awards benefit from:
  •  Invitation to the WSA World Congress including:
    • Pitching seminars
    • 7 minute pitch session in front of an international audience during the Congress
    • A program of especially crafted workshops for the winners
    • Invitation to the prestigious award ceremony and Gala night
    • Board and lodging for the durance of the Congress
    • Eye to eye exchange with speakers, jurors and international guests
  • Integration into a network of internationally recognized digital content developers
  • Access to the WSA community of global experts and industry leaders from over 178 countries
  • Interaction with world-renowned sponsors and partners of the WSA community
  • Workshops that will aid you in making your project in obtaining global recognition
  • A video that highlights your project
  • Special placement on WSA website, youtube channel and social media promotion
  • Long-term coverage within all WSA editorial channels such asBlogs, Articles and Success Stories
Nominees’ Benefits
A nomination for the World Summit Award is already a win – these are your rewards
  • Recieve more coverage on your product
    • The WSA provides nominees with press templates and helps them to gain the attention of national media with the support of our international team of high class media and ICT experts.
  • Receive a World Summit Award nominee seal which you can use on your websites, your social media channels and your publications.
  • Earn a chance to receive feedback from the Grand Jury.
  • Being nominated for the World Summit Award means that your product is the best in the country in one of our 8 categories (See in Program Webpage Link below).
    • Our experience has shown that this honor can immensely improve your outreach.
How to Apply: Taking part in the WSA Young Innovators contest is eligible through submission of a project with a clear digital component to the WSA Database:  https://db.icnm.net/Signup/Youthaward/2017/

APPLY NOW

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: World Summit Award (WSA)

Pitch AgriHack West Africa 2018 for Innovative Agric Entrepreneurs in Africa

Application Deadline: 21st May 2018

Eligible Countries: African countries

To be Taken at (Country): Rwanda

About the Award: The theme for this year’s edition is Women entrepreneurs innovate for agricultural transformation in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. 50% of finalists will be women and special women prizes will be awarded.
The ultimate objectives are to help develop business services offered by young e-agriculture start-ups as well as to contribute to accelerating the adoption of innovations for stronger productivity in the agrifood sector.
The final will be held in Rwanda in the framework of the 2018 edition of the African Green Revolution Forum(AGRF 2018) in September 2018.

Type: Entrepreneurship

Eligibility: 
  • The competition is open to both male and female founders and co-founders of e-agri start-ups offering ICT services to the agricultural sector.
  • Applicants must be aged between 18 to 35 years old.
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: Winning start-ups will receive from CTA, AfDB and other partners, up to Euros 15,000 in cash (grant) to advance their services, apart from additional support that may be facilitated by stakeholders involved.

Duration of Program:  April 9 – October 31, 2018.

How to Apply: Apply here

Visit the Program Webpage for Details 

Award Providers:  ACP-EU Technical Center for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA)

19th SA African Heart Congress Scholarships for African Cardiologists (Fully-funded to South Africa) 2018

Application Deadline: 18th May 2018

Eligible Countries: African countries

To Be Taken At (Country): South Africa

About the Award: There are currently three (3) scholarship types available, namely:
  • 15 African Fellowships;
  • 8 South African Fellowships and
  • 3 ESC <35 Community Scholarships
Type: Conference

Eligibility: 
15 African Fellowships
  • Limited to African fellows
  • Abstract accepted for poster or oral presentation
  • Low income African country
  • Endorsement and confirmation of fellowship status from HOD
  • Scientific merit based on abstract
8 South-African Fellowships
  • Limited to South Africa cardiology/paediatric cardiology and surgery fellows.
  • Abstract accepted/poster presentation or oral presentation
  • Endorsement and confirmation of fellowship status from HOD
  • Scientific merit based on abstract.
Number of Awards: 26

Value of Award:
15 African Fellowships AND 8 South-African Fellowships: Grants cover
  • One return economy e-ticket. Please note due to the rising cost of flights, the most
    cost-effective flight option will be offered
  • Congress registration
  • CVD Imbizo workshop
  • Local joint transfers to and from congress
  • Accommodation (4 x nights)
Grant does not cover:
  • Transfers to departing airport
  • Visas
  • Personal expenses during congress stay.
Duration of Program: 4-7 October 2018

How to Apply: To apply for one of the below scholarships kindly submit an abstract through the abstract admission portal and select the desired scholarship during submission. Abstract submissions close on 18 May 2018

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: SA Heart ®

DAAD Bavarian Government Scholarships for International Students at Hochschule Hof 2018/2019

Application Deadline: 26th October 2018

Eligible Countries: International

To be taken at (country): Germany

Type: Undergraduate, Postgraduate

Eligibility: Applicants must fulfil the following requirements:
  • international students must be enrolled as full-time students or double-degree students (not possible for exchange students) at the Hochschule Hof for the respective semester (summer semester 2018 or winter semester 2018/19).
  • international students must be academically (previous examination performance) and personally qualified. Foreign students enrolled in Bachelor courses must have achieved a minimum of 90 ECTS to be eligible. Please attach proof.
  • international students in financial need. Hochschule Hof may at any time ask for proof of given information.
Students receiving any additional public funding (e.g. BAföG, DAAD, Erasmus, any kind of governmental scholarship) for the same period of time cannot be considered and are exempted from this scholarship!

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Program: 
  • The scholarships shall provide financial support for foreign students to cover extra costs for living and study materials during their studies at Hochschule Hof.
  •  The scholarship depends on the financial means provided available for the respective semester. It lies between 100,00 € – 659,00 € per month.
How to Apply: 
  • completed online application form
  • Declaration of application
  • proof of enrolment
  • latest transcript of records (Master students add a copy of their final transcript of their Bachelor degree in either German or English language) with average rating
  • Cover letter with short CV
  • proof of nationality (e.g. copy of passport)
Visit Program Webpage for details

Award Provider: Bavarian Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts (Bayerische Staatsministerium für Bildung und Kultus, Wissenschaft und Kunst) and the DAAD

Important Notes: “Bildungsinländer”, which means foreign students holding a German university entrance qualification (e.g. Abitur, Fachabitur) must present a written confirmation following §8 of the BAföG-law, that they are not eligible for BaföG funding.

Chemical Madness!

Robert Hunziker

All of humanity currently risks exposure to toxic chemicals all over creation in a similar vein to the Mad Hatter of Alice in Wonderland fame. And, maybe, as a result, goin’ kinda looney and getting horribly, dreadfully sick!
As soon as the Spring of 2018, the EPA will decide whether to risk the slaughter of birds and bees and pollinators that serve critical functions in crop production, as well as goosing-up the likelihood of chronic illnesses of citizens. The issue behind this flirtation with disease, sickness, pain, and death is regulation, or lack thereof, of chemical pesticides.
Meanwhile on a grand scale, and following decades of superfluity, the planet gurgles, drowning in a massive saturation of chemicals found far and wide, as high as Mt. Everest (arsenic and cadmium) as deep as PCB-infested squid in the Mariana Trench, glowing bright shiny toxicity.
This article discusses only a tiny smattering of chemical madness that haunts the world yet a subject of thousands of articles of research discussing potential dangers to health of which the public is dreadfully unaware.
Thus, the overriding thesis herein: Unwittingly, society is poisoning itself.
Anecdotal evidence alone is reason enough for alarm, but of more concern, several scientific studies show real, actual, direct links of pesticides to human chronic diseases. Regrettably, chronic disease is already at severe epidemic levels never before witnessed! But, nobody with absolutely certainty has publicly connected the dots of chemicals to chronic diseases. The truth is buried in scientific studies that nobody, other than scientists, reads or understands.
Consequently, one can only hope that this article you are reading is dead wrong about the connection of chemicals to chronic diseases. But who knows for sure? And, that’s the point to be made: Nobody knows with 100% certainty whether humanity is poisoning itself or not, but it should be noted that the evidence is nearly almost compelling.
Furthermore, there is evidence that regulatory agencies have likely been looking at the wrong data, thus exposing innocent non-target species with unnecessary toxicity, leading to near extinction of some species that are crucial for crop production/human consumption.
The unnecessary exposure to causation of chronic diseases is a tragedy of immense proportions. For example: A recent Rand Corporation study says 60% of Americans have one and 40% have multiple chronic conditions: “Nearly 150 million Americans are living with at least one chronic condition; around 100 million of them have more than one.” (Source: Chronic Conditions in America: Price and Prevalence, Rand Review, July 2017).
This virtual outbreak of chronic diseases throughout America begs the question of why? Is the normal course of human life stricken with chronic diseases, like arthritis, asthma, cancer, cystic fibrosis, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, osteoporosis, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s? Is it normal, or is a rogue externality at work?
Understandably, it does not seem natural that 150,000,000 out of a population of 320,000,000 have chronic disease conditions. What’s up?
Chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, are often referred to as lifestyle diseases. This is because lifestyle factors, such as inactivity, diet, and smoking play a significant role in human protoplasm. But, is there something else behind this ongoing tragedy? Probabilities would say the answer is a resounding yes!
The Neonicotinoid Epidemic
By and large, Americans depend upon the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to help shield from dangerous chemicals. In that regard, the EPA is currently contemplating approval of the pesticide thiamethoxam, allowing it to be sprayed directly on 165 million acres of wheat, barley, corn, sorghum, alfalfa, rice, and potatoes.
Thiamethoxam, an insecticide, is a neonicotinoid.
According to a major study: “Neonicotinoids are compounds that affect the nervous system of insects, humans, and other animals.”
(Source Jennifer Hopwood, et al, How Neonicotinoids Can Kill Bees, 2nd Ed. The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, 2016).
“Twenty-nine (29) independent scientists who conducted a global review of more than 1,000 independent studies on neonicotinoids found overwhelming evidence linking the pesticides to declines in populations of bees, birds, earthworms, butterflies and other wildlife. (Source: EPA Considers Allowing Bee-Killing Pesticide To Be Sprayed on 165 Million Acres of U.S. Farmland, Center for Biological Diversity, EcoWatch, Dec. 19, 2017).
When using chemicals to kill specific pests, does it also make sense to collaterally kill bees, earthworms, butterflies, and other wildlife that form and create the backbone of ecosystems vital to human food, health, and well being?
Or, looked at another way, how did the world’s population grow crops and sustain population growth over the past couple of thousand years without chemical pesticides? For certain, the Roman Empire did not spray chemicals on crops nor did the British Empire of the 19th and early 20th centuries nor did America as it settled the frontier from Pennsylvania to California.
According to a landmark UN report d/d 2017: “Excessive use of pesticides are very dangerous to human health, to the environment and it is misleading to claim they are vital to ensuring food security… Chronic exposure to pesticides has been linked to cancer, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases, hormone disruption, etc….” (Source: UN Human Rights Experts Call for Global Treaty to Regulate Dangerous Pesticides, UN News, March 7, 2017).
Prior to the year 2000 neonicotinoid chemicals were used but largely unknown. Since then, they have become the most widely used agricultural insecticide on the planet. Despite this universality of use, amazingly, human toxicity issues via ingestion of chemically sprayed fruits and vegetables are not yet fully understood. That’s discomforting.
Meanwhile, bees and other pollinators are dropping dead like… well, like flies. Thus, pesticides designed to kill pests of crops are, in fact, killing insects that pollinate crops. Consider: 1,000 independent studies found “overwhelming evidence linking pesticides to declines in populations of bees, birds, earthworms, butterflies, and other wildlife.”
Scandalously, by all appearances, humanity is killing off the base of the food chain, as mentioned in numerous research reports regarding near-total collapse of several insect pollinator species worldwide.
It should be noted that the EPA has broadened its stance on pesticides and protection of pollinators as expressed on the EPA web site under the headline: “EPA Actions to Protect Pollinators.” But, it has not banned usage of neonicotinoids. EPA is currently in a “public comment period” until late April 2018 prior to assessment of approval of thiamethoxam.
Imidacloprid is another insecticide in the class of neoicotinoids but used on sucking insects, termites, soil insects, and fleas on pets. According to a significant study: “In many areas of intensive agriculture, surface water is contaminated with imidacloprid. As a result, non-target insects are exposed to an extremely toxic substance for a long time, which can lead to massive insect mortality and a break in the food chain… The risks of imidacloprid have been completely underestimated, with catastrophic consequences….” (Source: Henk A. Tennekes, The Importance of Dose-Time-Response Relationships for Hazard Identification and Limitation of Animal Experiments, Journal of Toxicology, Vol. 1, Issue 5 – August 2017)
The Tennekes’ study discusses “a break in the food chain” because of the use of an insecticide. That is a prime example of one of many studies that seldom appear in mainstream publications even though the message is critically important to quality of life and death matters.
In the final analysis, flirting with too much chemical saturation is not understood 100% for certain, but the literature is filled with tons and tons of research about chemical obsession, usage, and the dangers thereof. However, there is very little astute, careful threading-the-needle-type regulation by governmental regulators, mostly accepting internal studies passed on from chemical manufacturer in-house studies.
Meantime, the massive amount of chemicals spewing onto ecosystems is a relatively new phenomenon, mostly within the past few decades and few have been properly tested for harmful effects. Here’s the problem: Similar to radioactive isotopes, like those emitted at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant that slowly accumulate in the body with a latency affect, chemicals in the environment do the same. Problem is, once the problem fully manifests, it’s too late. By then, it is totally out of control.
The studies mentioned herein seem to somehow, someway but not 100% for sure connect to the horrific results of the Rand study showing 150,000,000 Americans with at least one chronic condition.
Albeit, the life and death question of the century remains: Does excessive chemical exposure cause chronic diseases, or is it something else at work on the human body? Nobody knows the answer with certainty. But, a multitude of studies that unfortunately collect dust on bookshelves or stuck in PC files out of public view do show evidence of direct linkage. Still, nobody has affirmatively, in the mainstream, connected those dots on behalf of the public at large.

In Middle East Wars It Pays to be Skeptical

Patrick Cockburn

During the bombing of Baghdad in January 1991 I went with other journalists on a government-organized trip to what they claimed was the remains of a baby milk plant at Abu Ghraib which the US had just destroyed, saying that it was really a biological warfare facility. Walking around the wreckage, I found a smashed-up desk with letters showing that the plant had indeed been producing “infant formula” milk powder. It had not been very successful in doing so, since much of the correspondence was about its financial and production problems and how they might best be resolved. It did not seem likely that the Iraqi government could have fabricated this evidence, though it was conceivable that in some part of the plant, which I did see, they might have been manufacturing biological weapons (BW).
I was visiting a lot of bombed-out buildings at the beginning of the US-led air campaign and I did not at first realise that “the Abu Ghraib baby milk factory” would become such an issue. I was more impressed at the time by the sight of a Cruise missile passing quite slowly overhead looking like a large black torpedo. But, within hours of leaving Abu Ghraib, the true purpose of the plant there had become a topic of furious controversy. The CNN correspondent Peter Arnett, who was on the trip, had reported that “whatever else it did, it [the plant] produced infant formula”. He saw a lot of powdered milk and, contrary to the Pentagon claim that the place was guarded like a fortress, we could only see one guard at the gate. Arnett did not deny the US government version that the place was a BW plant, but he did not confirm it either. He simply reported that “it looked innocent enough from what we could see”.
Even such mild dissent from the official US version of the bombing turned out to be unacceptable, producing an explosion of rage in Washington. Colin Powell, the US chief of staff, expressed certainty that the Abu Ghraib plant had manufactured BW. The US air force claimed that it had multiple sources of information proving the same thing.
Arnett was vilified as an Iraqi government stooge by the US government. “This is not a case of taking on the media,” said the White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater. “It’s a case of correcting a public disclosure that is erroneous, that is false, that hurts our government, and that plays into the hands of Saddam Hussein.” US news outlets, none of which had correspondents in Baghdad, vigorously toed the official line. Newsweek derided Iraq’s “ham-handed attempt to depict a bombed-out biological weapons plant near Baghdad as a baby-formula factory”.
It took years for the official version of the bombing to fall apart. Even though I had been in the plant soon after it was destroyed, I could not prove that it did not produce biological weapons, though it seemed to me highly unlikely. Media interest waned rapidly: the best study I could find about how the destruction of the milk factory was spun by official PR is a piece by Mark Crispin Miller, from which the quotes above are taken, published in 2003.
Proof came slowly, long after public interest had waned. A Congressional report in 1993 on US intelligence successes and failures in the Gulf War revealed the shaky reasoning behind the US Air Force decision to bomb the site. It turned out that “mottled camouflage” had been used on the roofs of two known BW facilities. The report said: “at the same time, the same camouflage scheme was applied to the roof of the milk plant”. This was enough for the US Air Force to list it as a target.
Confident official claims about multiple sources of intelligence turned out to be untrue. One has to burrow deep into an unclassified CIA paper on Iraq’s BW programme, to find a sentence admitting that another plant, which was the real centre of Saddam Hussein’s BW effort, was unknown to the US-led coalition and “therefore was not attacked during the war, unlike the Abu Ghurayb (sic) Infant Formula Plant (the Baby Milk Factory) that the Coalition destroyed by bombing in the mistaken belief that it was a key BW facility”.
The story of the Abu Ghraib baby milk factory is worth retelling because it underlines – in the wake of the US, British and French air strikes on alleged Syrian BW sites on 14 April – the need for permanent scepticism towards claims by governments that they know what is happening on the ground in Syria or anywhere else.
But government duplicity is scarcely new and denunciations of it may obscure an even greater danger. Look again at the attack on Peter Arnett’s story by the White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater who was wrong – and Arnett was right – in saying that it contained “a disclosure that is erroneous, that is false”. But he adds correctly that it was a disclosure “that hurts our government and plays into the hands of Saddam Hussein”.
So it was in a minor way and this brings us to a toxic attitude towards those who question the official version of events increasingly common in Britain and the US. It is overwhelming freedom of speech in Hungary and Poland and has already triumphed in Turkey and Egypt. In all cases, opinions diverging from those of the powers-that-be are branded as disloyal and unpatriotic and “false facts” are being spread by “useful idiots”, to use two ghastly clichés much in use. Marginalisation of dissenting is followed by its criminalisation: Turkey once had a flourishing free press but now any criticism of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or words or actions of which he disapproves can be labelled as “terrorism” and punished accordingly.
There is much tut-tutting in Britain by the commentariat about the spread of authoritarianism in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but less so about the growing limitation on what can be freely expressed at home. Increasingly, anything less than full endorsement of the government line about the poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury or the suspected gas attack on civilians in Douma in Syria is characterised as support for Putin or Assad.
A telling instance of this new authoritarianism is the denunciations of a party of Christian clergy and peers who have been visiting Syria to meet church dignitaries and government officials. This is an understandable mission for concerned British Christians because Christians in Syria can do with all the solidarity they can get as they are forced to flee or are kidnapped or murdered by Isis, al-Qaeda or the Muslim Brotherhood. Like many Syrians, they see their choice as not being between good and bad but between bad and worse. They generally prefer survival under Assad to likely extinction under his enemies.
Visiting embattled members of the depleted Christian community in Syria is a good thing to do. And, yes, it could be said that the presence of British Christians in Damascus is very marginally helpful to Assad, in much the same way that Peter Arnett’s truthful report on the baby milk in Abu Ghraib must have pleased Saddam Hussein. The Foreign Office said the Christians’ visit was “not helpful” but then helping the British state should not be their prime concern.
None of the arguments currently being used in Britain and the US to smear those sceptical of the governmental and media consensus are new. The Bolsheviks used to denounce people who said or did things they did not like as “objectively” being fascists or counter-revolutionaries. When those being denounced, often only a preliminary to being shot, replied that they were no such thing, the Bolsheviks would reply: “tell us who supports you and we will tell you who you are”. In other words, the only thing that matters is what side you are on.

Bad Projections: the Federal Reserve, the IMF and Unemployment

Dean Baker

Those of us pushing the Federal Reserve Board to hold off on raising interest rates have pointed out that the members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, like other economists, have repeatedly over-estimated the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), the unemployment rate at which inflation would start spiraling upward. In 2014, they had put it at 5.4 percent. Today the unemployment rate stands at 4.1 percent, with no evidence of acceleration in the inflation rate.
If the Fed’s inflation hawks had their way, there would have been sharper increases in interest rates over the last four years. These would have slowed growth and prevented millions of workers from getting jobs and tens of millions from getting pay hikes. For this reason, we have argued for caution in raising rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is becoming a problem.
It turns out that the United States is not the only place where economists have trouble projecting floors to the unemployment rate. The figure below shows the IMF’s projection of unemployment rates from April of 2014 for the calendar year 2018. It also shows the most recent measure from the OECD.
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Source: IMF and OECD.
In the vast majority of cases, the most recent month’s unemployment measure is well below the 2014 projection. For example, Belgium would have an unemployment rate of 8.3 percent in 2018. The most recent month’s data put the unemployment rate at 5.2 percent. For Germany, the projection was 5.2 percent unemployment; the most recent number was 3.5 percent. For the UK it projected 5.7 percent; the most recent number is 4.2 percent.
In some cases, the gaps are dramatic. The IMF projected an unemployment rate for of 5.5 percent for the Czech Republic; the actual rate is 2.4 percent. For the Slovak Republic, the projection was 12.2 percent; the actual figure is 7.5 percent. In the case of Spain, the projection was 22.6 percent; the most recent figure is 16.1 percent. On the whole, the average projected rate was 8.0 percent, the average current rate is 6.6 percent.
There are six countries in which the actual rate is worse than the projected rate. The actual rate in Finland is 0.9 percentage points higher than the 2014 projection. The rate in Italy is 1.2 percentage points higher. But, Greece is the big winner in this category. Its 20.8 percent unemployment rate is 4.5 percentage points higher than the 16.5 percent rate projected four years ago.
The moral of this story is that economists have a very bad track record in projecting unemployment rates. If a central bank wants to raise interest rates to head off inflation, it would be well-advised to look at what is happening to prices rather than relying on projections of NAIRUs. (The 2014 projections can be seen as NAIRU projections since the IMF assumed that the cyclical component of unemployment would be largely gone by that point.)