5 May 2016

US change of command in Europe signals escalation of anti-Russia threats

Bill Van Auken

Washington used this week’s change of command of its European military forces as an opportunity to further escalate US military threats against Russia.
Speaking at the ceremony at the US European Command (EUCOM) headquarters in Germany Tuesday in which outgoing commander Gen. Philip Breedlove handed the reins to his successor, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter declared that the Pentagon had to “prioritize deterrence” against Russia and accused Moscow of “nuclear saber-rattling.”
Carter reiterated the Pentagon’s plans to deploy an American armored brigade combat team near the Russian border “on a rotational but persistently present basis.” He also pointed to the Obama administration’s quadrupling of funding for the European Reassurance Initiative to $3.4 billion, which he said would “increase the amount of war fighting equipment, as well as the number of US forces” deployed in Eastern Europe.
In his own remarks at the ceremony, General Scaparrotti placed “a resurgent Russia, striving to project itself as a world power,” at the top of his list of threats confronting US interests in Europe, ahead of “terrorism.”
The new commander stressed that his troops—some 60,000 deployed in Europe—must be prepared “to fight tonight if the deterrence fails.”
The day before the change of command ceremony, Carter confirmed to reporters flying with him from Washington to Stuttgart, Germany, where EUCOM is headquartered, that the NATO alliance is considering rotating its own force consisting of four combat brigades in and out of the Baltic and Eastern European countries on Russia’s border. This would be in addition to Washington’s unilateral decision to carry out the permanent rotating presence of a similar force of US troops.
The pre-positioning of combat gear near the Russian border would enable the rapid deployment of still another US armored brigade combat team.
Russia Wednesday responded to the escalating threats from Washington and NATO, with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing, “The Defense Ministry is taking a series of measures to counter the expansion of NATO forces in direct proximity to the Russian border. By the end of the year, two new divisions will be formed in the Western District and one in the Southern Military District. ”
Each of these divisions reportedly will include at least 10,000 soldiers. The Southern Military District includes Crimea, which was annexed by Russia following a popular referendum called after the 2014 Western-orchestrated coup that ousted the Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych, installing a virulently anti-Russian regime.
The US and NATO have used the annexation, a defensive measure by Moscow to maintain control over the historic base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, as the pretext for justifying NATO expansion in the name of combating Russian aggression.
In his remarks Tuesday, Defense Secretary Carter leveled a litany of charges against Russia: “Russia continues to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, and actively seeks to intimidate its Baltic neighbors. At sea, in the air and space and cyberspace, Russian actors have engaged in challenging international norms. And most disturbing, Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling raises troubling questions about Russia’s leaders’ commitments to strategic stability, their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons, and whether they respect the profound caution that nuclear-age leaders showed with regard to the brandishing of nuclear weapons.”
Washington’s own “commitments to strategic stability” are far from manifest. In February, after unusual back-to-back test firings of Minuteman 3 nuclear missiles from an underground bunker on the California coast, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work told the media that the tests constituted “a signal … that we are prepared to use nuclear weapons in defense of our country if necessary.” He specifically named Russia and China as intended recipients of this message.
At a Pentagon briefing on Monday, the senior commander of the US Navy charged Russia with provocative actions that have escalated tensions in the Baltics.
“I don’t think the Russians are trying to provoke an incident,” said Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations. “I think they’re trying to send a signal. I think it’s pretty clear that they are wanting to let us know that they see that we are up there in the Baltic.”
The Pentagon charged that a Russian SU-27 fighter jet carried out a “barrel roll” last Friday over a US Air Force RC-135 spy plane over the Baltic Sea. The charge followed reports last month of a Russian jet flying within 50 feet of a US warplane and of two Russian jets flying close to the USS Donald Cook in the Baltic sea.
Moscow has charged that the real provocation is the US deploying such naval and air force assets in close proximity to the base of the Russian navy’s Baltic fleet in Kaliningrad.
Following the April incident involving the US warship, US Secretary of State John Kerry said it would have been justified in shooting down the Russian planes.
Similarly, the new EUCOM commander, General Scaparrotti, told a Senate committee last month that Russia should be warned that future such incidents will be met with armed force and, if they occur, the US military should act on this threat.
The European Leadership Network, a European think tank chaired by UK Defense Secretary Des Browne, issued a recent report titled “Managing dangerous incidents: the need for a NATO-Russia Memorandum of Understanding,” which documented 60 such “dangerous incidents in the Euro-Atlantic area” between March 2015 and March 2016. Each of them, it warned, had “the potential to trigger a major crisis between a nuclear armed state and a nuclear armed alliance.”

4 May 2016

TWAS-icipe Fellowships for Developing Countries in Kenya

Deadline:31st of August, 2016
Offered Annually?Yes
About:The International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi, Kenya, and TWAS offer one fellowship per year to visiting scholars from developing countries (other than Kenya) who wish to pursue advanced research in natural sciences.
Eligible Fields:
Fellowships are obtainable at icipe in the Programmes of
  1. Agricultural Sciences
  2. Structural, Cell and Molecular Biology
  3. Biological Systems and Organisms
  4. Medical and Health Sciences including Neurosciences
  5. Chemical Sciences
Scholarship Worth:
ICIPE will provide a standard monthly allowance which should be used to cover living costs, such as accommodation, food and health insurance. The monthly stipend will not be convertible into foreign currency.
Programme Duration:
TWAS-icipe Visiting Scholar Fellowships in natural sciences are tenable for a minimum period of six month to a maximum period of twelve months at the departments of the International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE) in Kenya.
Eligibility:
Applicants for these Fellowships must meet the following criteria:
  • Must be nationals of a developing country (other than Kenya);
  • Must apply for the TWAS-icipe Postdoctoral Fellowship within 5 years of completion of their PhD qualification;
  • must not hold any visa for temporary or permanent residency in Kenya or any developed country;
  • hold a PhD degree in a field of the natural sciences;
  • be regularly employed in a developing country (other than the host country) and hold a research assignment there;
  • be accepted at an icipe department and provide an official acceptance letter from the head of the department (see sample Acceptance Letter) to this effect. Requests for acceptance must be directed to Lillian Igweta (see contact details below);
  • provide evidence of proficiency in English, if medium of education was not English;
  • provide evidence that s/he will return to her/his home country on completion of the fellowship;
  • not take up other assignments during the period of her/his fellowship;
  • be financially responsible for any accompanying family members.

Submission Requirements:
Without preliminary acceptance, the application will not be considered for selection.
Reference letters: Referees must send signed letters as attachments via e-mail directly to TWAS only. The subject line must contain: icipe/VS/candidate’s surname. Alternatively, letters should be sent by post in sealed envelopes.
Applicants to the TWAS-icipe Visiting Scholar Fellowship Programme should send their application to TWAS only.
Applicants should be aware that they can apply for only one fellowship per year.
Application Deadline:
The deadline for receipt of applications is 15 September of each year.
Applicants should submit the acceptance letter from the chosen department to TWAS when applying or by the deadline at the latest.
Application Form:
Click on the links below to download the application form and guidelines. Before applying it is recommended that you read very carefully the application guidelines for detailed information on eligibility criteria, deadlines and other key requirements of the application procedure.
Contact Details
TWAS Fellowships Office
ICTP campus, Strada Costiera 11
34151 Trieste, Italy
Tel: +39 040 2240314
Fax: +39 040 2240689
E-mail: fellowships@twas.org
• Ms. Lilian Igweta, Training Officer
Capacity Building and Institutional Development (CB&ID) Programme
International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe)
Duduville, Kasarani – off Thika Road
P.O. Box 30772-00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Tel: +254 20 863 2272
Fax: +254 20 863 2001/2
E-mail: ligweta@icipe.org

TWAS-DBT Postgraduate Research Fellowship for Developing Countries, India 2016/2017

Application Deadline: 31st of August 2016
Offered annually? Yes
Scholarship Name: TWAS-DBT Postgraduate Research Fellowship
Brief description: PhD Research Fellowship for Foreign scholars from Developing Countries in Biotechnology, India 2016
Eligible Field of Study: PhD in Biotechnology
About Scholarship
The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) of the Ministry of Science and Technology, India, and TWAS, Italy have instituted a postgraduate fellowship programme for foreign scholars from developing countries who wish to pursue research towards a PhD in Biotechnology, tenable at key biotechnology research institutions in India for a period of up to five years. The language of instruction is English.
Scholarship Offered Since: Not Specified
Who is qualified to apply?
Applicants for these research fellowships must meet the following criteria:
  • Be a maximum age of 35 years on 31 December of the application year;
  • Be nationals of a developing country (other than India);
  • Hold a Master’s or equivalent degree in science or engineering;
  • For SANDWICH Fellowships: Be registered PhD students in their home country and provide the “Registration and No Objection Certificate” from the HOME university (sample is included in the application form);
  • For FULL-TIME Fellowships: be willing to register at a university in India;
  • Must not hold any visa for temporary or permanent residency in India or any developed country;
  • Be accepted at a biotechnology institution in India (see sample Acceptance Letter included in the application form);
  • Provide evidence of proficiency in English, if medium of education was not English;
  • Provide evidence that s/he will return to her/his home country on completion of the fellowship;
  • Not take up other assignments during the period of her/his fellowship;
  • Be financially responsible for any accompanying family members.

Number of scholarship: Several
Value of Scholarship: DBT will provide a monthly stipend to cover for living costs, food and health insurance. The monthly stipend will not be convertible into foreign currency. In addition, the fellowship holder will receive a house rent allowance.
Duration of Award: Up to five years.
Eligible Countries: Developing Countries
To be taken at (country): Applicants may be registered for a PhD degree in their home country, or may enrol in a PhD course at a host laboratory/institute in India.
How to Apply
Before applying it is recommended that you read very carefully the application guidelines for detailed information on eligibility criteria, and other key requirements of the application procedure.
Sponsors
The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) of the Ministry of Science and Technology, India, and The World Academy of Science (TWAS), Italy
Important Notes:
Applicants may be registered for a PhD degree in their home country, or may enrol in a PhD course at a host laboratory/institute in India. However, candidates are free to choose an Indian biotechnology institution that does not appear on the list.

2016/2017 TWAS-CSIR Postgraduate Fellowship Program

Application Deadline:
31st of August, 2016
Offered annually?No
Eligible Countries:Developing Countries
To be taken at (country):India
Brief description:TWAS-CSIR Postgraduate Fellowships for applicants in developing countries who wish to study the sciences in India.
Eligible Field of Study:
  1. Agricultural Sciences
  2. Structural, Cell and Molecular Biology
  3. Biological Systems and Organisms
  4. Medical and Health Sciences incl. Neurosciences
  5. Chemical Sciences
  6. Engineering Sciences
  7. Astronomy, Space and Earth Sciences
  8. Mathematical Sciences
  9. Physics
About the Award:
The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) of India and TWAS have established a number of fellowships for foreign scholars from developing countries who wish to pursue research toward a PhD in emerging areas of science and technology for which facilities are available in the laboratories and institutes of the CSIR.
Type:
Postgraduate (Doctoral) Fellowship for citizens of developing nations
Eligibility:
Application for this fellowship must meet the following criteria:
  • Be a maximum age of 35 years by 31st of December 2016.
  • Be nationals of a developing country (other than India).
  • Must not hold any visa for temporary or permanent residency in India or any developed country.
  • Hold a Master’s degree in science and technology.
  • Be regularly employed in their home country and hold a research assignment there.
  • SANDWICH Fellowships: Be registered PhD students in their home country and provide the “Registration and No Objection Certificate” from the HOME university.
  • FULL-TIME Fellowships: Be willing to register at a university in India within the first year, if agreed to by CSIR.
  • Be accepted at a CSIR laboratory/institution and provide an official acceptance letter from the host institution (see sample Acceptance Letter included in the Application Form).
  • provide evidence of proficiency in English, if medium of education was not English;
  • provide evidence that s/he will return to her/his home country on completion of the fellowship;
  • not take up other assignments during the period of her/his fellowship;
  • be financially responsible for any accompanying family members.

Number of Awardees:
Not specified
Value of Scholarship:
CSIR will provide a monthly stipend to cover for living costs, food and health insurance. The monthly stipend will not be convertible into foreign currency. In addition, Fellowship awardees are entitled to subsidized accommodation.
Duration of Scholarship:
  • SANDWICH Fellowships (for those registered for a PhD in their home country): The Fellowship may be granted for a minimum period of 6 months and a maximum period to be decided by the host institute, but no greater than 3 years.
  • FULL-TIME Fellowships (for those not registered for a PhD): The Fellowship may be granted for up to a maximum duration of 4 years.
How to Apply:
  • If already registered for a PhD in their home country, applicants should ensure that the Vice-Chancellor or Registrar of the HOME university signs a copy of the “Registration and No Objection Certificate” (see sample included in the Application Form), a copy of which should be sent to both CSIR and TWAS.
  • Applicants should submit the acceptance letter from a CSIR institution to CSIR and TWAS when applying or by the deadline at the latest. Without preliminary acceptance, the application will not be considered for selection.
  • Applications for the TWAS-CSIR Postgraduate Fellowship Programme should be sent to TWAS and CSIR (by email).
  • Applicants should be aware that they can apply for only one fellowship per year from among those offered by TWAS.
Award Provider: The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS), Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India
Important Notes: Applicants may also choose the Sandwich option. Requests for acceptance must be directed to the chosen CSIR host institution(s), with copy to the CSIR contact person.  This will allow CSIR to monitor requests and offer support or assistance in finding  suitable host institution(s), if necessary.

TWAS-SN Bose Postgraduate Fellowship Programme – India

Application Deadline: 31st of August 2016
Offered annually? Yes
Eligible Countries: Developing nations
To be taken at (country): India
Brief description: TWAS in collaboration with SN BOSE is offering fellowship opportunities to citizens of developing countries who wish to pursue research towards a PhD in physical sciences
Eligible Field of Study:
Linear and Non-linear spectroscopy, Ultrafast molecular processes and spectroscopy, Ultrafast dynamics in biological macromolecules and magnetization, Ultrafast laser induced processes, Soft condensed matter systems of chemical and biological interests, mesocopic physics, ionic liquids, multi-component liquid mixtures, supercooled melts, supercritical fluids, bio-nano interface, nano-magnetism, magnonic crystals, micromagnetic simulations.
Nanomaterials in general, and Physics of Correlated oxides, low dimensional systems, magnetic shape memory alloys, dilute magnetic semi-conductors, multi-ferroic materials, thin films of metals and oxides, electronic, magnetic and structural properties of complex materials, superconductivity,  strongly correlated electronic systems, quantum many-body physics, micromagnetic and monte carlo simulation of static  and dynamic properties of nanomagnets, theoretical study of thermalconductivity, Ab initio plane wave pseudo-potential calculation, strongly correlated electron systems, electronic structure and transport through nano-materials.
Quantum field theory, mathematical physics, cognitive science, granular physics, non-commutative quantum mechanics, statistical physics, non-linear dynamics, turbulences, lattice gauge theories, representation theory of lie groups and coherent states, quantum optics, black holes, constrained dynamics, quantum gravity, quantum spin systems, collective behaviour and emergent phenomena, explosive percolation, complex networks and critical phenomena.
Cosmology, Relativistic Astrophysics, ionospheric science, Astrochemistry.
About the Award: TWAS and the S.N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences in Kolkata, India have agreed to offer strategic fellowships annually to young foreign scientists from developing countries who wish to pursue research towards a PhD in physical sciences. The Fellowships will be obtained from the S.N. Bose National Centre for Basic Sciences in Kolkata, India for studies leading towards a PhD degree in the physical sciences for four years with the possibility of a one-year extension.
Type: Postgraduate (Doctoral) Fellowship
Eligibility:

  • Be a maximum age of 35 years on 31 December of the application year;
  • Be nationals of a developing country (other than India);
  • Must not hold any visa for temporary or permanent residency in India or any developed country;
  • Hold a Master’s degree in physics, mathematics or physical chemistry;
  • Be accepted by a department of the S.N. Bose National Centre. Requests for acceptance must be directed to the Dean (Academic Programme), S.N. Bose National Centre for Sciences by e-mail (deanap@bose.res.in) (see sample Acceptance Letter, at the end of the application form in link to the webpage). In contacting the Dean (Academic Programme), applicants mustaccompany their request for an Acceptance Letter with copy of their CV, a research proposal outline and two reference letters
  • Provide evidence of proficiency in English, if medium of education was not English;
  • Provide evidence that s/he will return to her/his home country on completion of the fellowship;
  • Not take up other assignments during the period of her/his fellowship;
  • Be financially responsible for any accompanying family members.
Selection Criteria:
  • Applicants may be registered for a PhD degree in their home country (SANDWICH), or may enrol in a PhD course at the S.N. Bose National Centre (FULL-TIME). In both cases, the programme will involve only one journey to the host country.
  • Admission to the PhD programme at the S.N. Bose National Centre will depend on the successful completion of coursework (about one year’s duration).
Number of Awardees: Five (5)
Value of Scholarship:
Monthly stipend to cover living costs and food will be provided. The monthly stipend will not be convertible into foreign currency. Free on-campus accommodation will be provided.
The monthly stipend does not cover comprehensive health or medical insurance.
Also partial reimbursements of Doctor’s fees, medicines and/or hospitalization costs, if any, for costs incurred in Kolkata will be given according to the Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) of the Government of India.
Duration of Scholarship: 4 years ( may be subject to extension by one year)
How to Apply:
  • Applicants must submit an Acceptance Letter from a department of the S.N. Bose National Centre when applying, or by the deadline at the latest. Without preliminary acceptance the application will not be considered for selection.
  • Reference letters must be on letter-headed paper, SIGNED and sent as attachments via e-mail to TWAS only. The subject line must contain SNBOSE/PG/ and the candidate’s surname. N.B. Only signed reference letters can be accepted. The letters can be submitted either by the referee or by the applicant directly.
  • Applications for the TWAS-S.N. Bose Postgraduate Fellowship Programme should be sent to TWAS only (by email).
  • Applicants should be aware that they can apply for only one fellowship per year from among those offered by TWAS.
Award Provider: The  World Academy of Sciences, SN BOSE.
Important Notes:
Applicants may be registered for a PhD degree in their home country (SANDWICH option), or may enrol in a PhD course at the S.N. Bose National Centre (FULL-TIME option). In both cases, the programme entails only one journey to the host country.
Admission to the PhD programme at the S.N. Bose National Centre will depend on the successful completion of coursework (about one year’s duration).

OWSD Postgraduate Training Fellowships for Women Scientists from Sub-Saharan Africa and LDC 2016/2017

Scholarship Name: OWSD Postgraduate Training Fellowships for Women Scientists
Brief description: Postgraduate Training Fellowships for Women is offered for women Scientists from Sub-Saharan Africa and Least Developed Countries (LDC) at Centres of Excellence in the South for research in Natural sciences related fields
Accepted Subject Areas?
Fields related to Natural Sciences
About Scholarship
With funds generously provided by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), Organisation For Women In Science For The Developing World OWSD has instituted a fellowship programme for female students from Sub-Saharan Africa and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), who wish to pursue postgraduate training leading to a Ph.D., at centres of excellence in the South (developing countries), outside their own country.
The postgraduate training Fellowship is offered to women scientists from Sub-saharan African and Least Developing Countries to pursue postgraduate research leading to doctoral degree in a field of the natural sciences.
The general purpose of the scheme is to contribute to the emergence of a new generation of women leaders in science and technology, and to promote their effective participation in the scientific and technological development of their countries.
Scholarship Offered Since: Not Specified
Scholarship Type: Postgraduate research fellowship for women
By what Criteria is Selection Made?
  • Please read the following information carefully before applying.
  • The fellowships are highly competitive, and the selection will be based on scientific competence and merit.
  • The applications will be reviewed by a panel of eminent scientists, appointed by the Executive Board of OWSD.
  • Only women scientists from Sub-Saharan Africa and/or one of the Least Developed Countries can apply.

  • Host institutions must be located in a developing country.
  • Applications that are incomplete or illegible cannot be considered. Please make sure all the requested enclosures are submitted together with your application.
Who is qualified to apply?
The fellowships are open to qualified young women science graduates (generally below 40 years of age) from countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and/or LDCs.
The minimum qualification of applicants is an M.Sc. degree (or equivalent), or an outstanding B.Sc. honours degree, in the natural sciences.
The institute must be in a developing country other than the applicant’s home country.
Number of Scholarship: Several
What are the benefits?
Scholarship will cover travel expenses, a modest monthly living allowance, the amount of which will be determined in consultation with the host institution.
How long will sponsorship last? Each fellowship will be offered for three years
Eligible Countries
Sub-Saharan Africa and Least Developed Countries
To be taken at (country): Developing Countries
Application Deadline: 31 May 2016
Offered annually? Yes
How to Apply
Visit scholarship webpage for details
Sponsors: The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and Organisation For Women In Science For The Developing World OWSD
Important Notes: An applicant who wishes to register as a PhD student at her home institute can choose a sandwich option, whereby part of the research programme is undertaken at a host institute in another developing country.
The applicant must be willing to return to her own country after completion of the fellowship.

Campbell Fellowship for Women Scholar-Practitioners from Developing Nation 2016/2017

Scholarship Name: Campbell Fellowship for Women Scholar-Practitioners from Developing Nations
Brief description: Campbell Foundation Fellowship for Women Scholar-Practitioners from Developing Nations whose work addresses women’s economic and social empowerment in that nation
Eligible Fields
Applicants should be pursuing research in one of the social sciences: anthropology, economics, education, geography, history, law, linguistics, political science, psychology, social work, or sociology, or in an interdisciplinary field that incorporates two or more of these disciplines.
About Scholarship
The Vera R. Campbell Foundation funded Fellowship is offered for female postdoctoral social scientist from a developing country whose work addresses women’s economic and social empowerment in that nation. The goal of the program is twofold: to advance the scholarly careers of women social scientists from the developing world, and to support research that identifies causes of gender inequity in the developing world and that proposes practical solutions for promoting women’s economic and social empowerment.
Scholarship Offered Since: Not Specified
Scholarship Type: Postdoctoral Fellowship for women
Eligibility and Selection Criteria
Applicants must be nationals of developing countries that are currently eligible to borrow from the World Bank.
To facilitate full engagement in the SAR intellectual community, applicants must demonstrate their fluency in English, such as through their record of professional interaction in written and spoken English.
Value of Scholarship

In addition to a $4,500/month stipend and housing and office space on the SAR campus, the Campbell Fellow receives travel, shipping, and library resource funds; health insurance; and the support of a mentoring committee of established scholar-practitioners.
Duration of Scholarship: Six months
Eligible Countries
Applicants must be nationals of developing countries that are currently eligible to borrow from the World Bank.
To be taken at (country): USA
Application Deadline: first Monday in November each year.
Offered annually? Yes
How to Apply
Applications to the Resident Scholar Program are due on November 1st of each year.
Sponsors
This fellowship is made possible through the generous support of the Vera R. Campbell Foundation.
Important Notes:
Projects that identify causes of and/or solutions to gender inequity in the developing world, and thus contribute to women’s social and economic empowerment, will be favored. Sample topics include education and socialization of girls; globalization and the economic status of women; policies and practices toward family, reproduction, and women’s health; impacts of international and civil conflict on women; women’s roles in resolving such conflicts or sustaining civil society; media representations of women and the formation of ideologies of gender; the practice and process of gender-based development; and women in science and technology. SAR will select fellows on the strength of their clearly stated intention to serve their communities and countries of origin.

Baiting the Bear: Russia and NATO

Conn Hallinan

Aggressive,” “revanchist,” “swaggering”: These are just some of the adjectives the mainstream press and leading U.S. and European political figures are routinely inserting before the words “Russia,” or “Vladimir Putin.” It is a vocabulary most Americans have not seen or heard since the height of the Cold War.
The question is, why?
Is Russia really a military threat to the United States and its neighbors? Is it seriously trying to “revenge” itself for the 1989 collapse of the Soviet Union? Is it actively trying to rebuild the old Soviet empire? The answers to these questions are critical, because, for the first time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, several nuclear-armed powers are on the edge of a military conflict with fewer safeguards than existed 50 years ago.
Consider the following events:
* NATO member Turkey shoots down a Russian warplane.
* Russian fighter-bombers come within 30 feet of a U.S. guided missile destroyer, and a Russian fighter does a barrel roll over a U.S. surveillance plane. Several U.S. Senators call for a military response to such encounters in the future.
* NATO and the U.S. begin deploying three combat brigades—about 14,000 troops and their equipment—in several countries that border Russia, and Washington has more than quadrupled its military spending in the region.
* U.S. State Department officials accuse Russia of “dismantling” arms control agreements, while Moscow charges that Washington is pursuing several destabilizing weapons programs.
* Both NATO and the Russians have carried out large war games on one another’s borders and plan more in the future, in spite of the fact that the highly respected European Leadership Network (ELN) warns that the maneuvers are creating “mistrust.”
In the scary aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, the major nuclear powers established some ground rules to avoid the possibility of nuclear war, including the so-called “hot line” between Washington and Moscow. But, as the threat of a nuclear holocaust faded, many of those safeguards have been allowed to lapse, creating what the ELN calls a “dangerous situation.”
According to a recent report by the ELN, since March of last year there have been over 60 incidents that had “the potential to trigger a major crisis between a nuclear armed state and a nuclear armed alliance.” The report warns that, “There is today no agreement between NATO and Russia on how to manage close military encounters.”
Such agreements do exist, but they are bilateral and don’t include most alliance members. Out of 28 NATO members, 11 have memorandums on how to avoid military escalation at sea, but only the U.S., Canada and Greece have what is called “Preventing Dangerous Military Activities” (DMA) agreements that cover land and air as well. In any case, there are no such agreements with the NATO alliance as a whole.
The lack of such agreements was starkly demonstrated in the encounter between Russian aircraft and the U.S. The incident took place less than 70 miles off Baltiysk, home of Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet, and led to an alarming exchange in the Senate Armed Services Committee among Republican John McCain, Democrat Joe Donnelly, and U.S. Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, soon to assume command of U.S. forces in Europe.
McCain: ”This may sound a little tough, but should we make an announcement to the Russians that if they place the men and women on board Navy ships in danger, that we will take appropriate action?”
Scaparrotti: “That should be known, yes.”
Donnelly: “Is there a point…where we tell them in advance enough, the next time it doesn’t end well for you?”
Scaparrotti: “We should engage them and make clear what is acceptable. Once we make that known we have to enforce it.”
For the Americans, the Russian flyby was “aggressive.” For the Russians, U.S. military forces getting within spitting range of their Baltic Fleet is the very definition of “aggressive.” What if someone on the destroyer panicked and shot down the plane? Would the Russians have responded with an anti-ship missile? Would the U.S. have retaliated and invoked Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, bringing the other 27 members into the fray? Faced by the combined power of NATO, would the Russians—feeling their survival at stake—consider using a short-range nuclear weapon? Would the U.S. then attempt to take out Moscow’s nuclear missiles with its new hypersonic glide vehicle? Would that, in turn, kick in the chilling logic of thermonuclear war: use your nukes or lose them?
Far-fetched? Unfortunately, not at all. The world came within minutes of a nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis and, as researcher Eric Schlosser demonstrated in his book “Command and Control,” the U.S. came distressingly close at least twice more by accident.
One of the problems about nuclear war is that it is almost impossible to envision. The destructive powers of today’s weapons have nothing in common with the tiny bombs that incinerated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, so experience is not much of a guide. Suffice it to say that just a small portion of world’s nukes would end civilization as we know it, and a general exchange could possibly extinguish human life.
With such an outcome at least in the realm of possibility, it becomes essential to step back and try to see the world through another’s eyes.
Is Russia really a danger to the U.S. and its neighbors? NATO points to Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia and its 2014 intervention in eastern Ukraine as examples of “Russian aggression.”
But from Moscow, the view is very different.
In 1990, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and German Chancellor Helmet Kohl pledged to then Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move eastward, nor recruit former members of the East bloc military alliance, the Warsaw Pact. By 1995 NATO had enlisted Pact members Romania, Hungry, Poland, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and signed on Montenegro this year. Georgia is currently being considered, and there is a push to bring Ukraine aboard. From Moscow’s perspective NATO is not only moving east, but encircling Russia.
“I don’t think many people understand the visceral way Russia views NATO and the European Union as an existential threat,” says U.S.Admiral Mark Ferguson, commander of U.S. naval forces in Europe.
Most NATO members have no interest in starting a fight with Russia, but others sound like they think it wouldn’t be a bad idea. On April 15,Witold Waszczykowski, the foreign minister of Poland’s rightwing government, told reporters that Russia is “more dangerous than the Islamic State,” because Moscow is an “existential threat to Europe.” The minister made his comments at a NATO conference discussing the deployment of a U.S. armored brigade on Poland’s eastern border.
Is Russia reneging on arms control agreements? The charge springs from the fact that Moscow has refused to consider cutting more of its nuclear weapons, is boycotting nuclear talks, deploying intermediate range nuclear missiles, and backing off a conventional weapons agreement. But again, Moscow sees all that very differently.
From Moscow’s point of view, the U.S. is continuing to spread its network of anti-missile systems in Europe and Asia, which the Russians see as a threat to their nuclear force (as does China). And as far as “reneging” goes, it was the U.S. that dumped the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, not Russia,
The U.S. is also pouring billions of dollars into “modernizing” its nuclear weapons. It also proposes using ICBMs to carry conventional warheads (if you see one coming, how do you know it’s not a nuke?), and is planning to deploy high velocity glide vehicles that will allow the U.S. to strike targets worldwide with devastating accuracy. And since NATO is beefing up its forces and marching east, why should the Russians tie themselves to a conventional weapons treaty?
What about Russia’s seizure of the Crimea? According to the U.S. State Department, redrawing European boundaries is not acceptable in the 21st century—unless you are Kosovo breaking away from Serbia under an umbrella of NATO air power, in which case it’s fine. Residents of both regions voted overwhelmingly to secede.
Georgia? The Georgians stupidly started it.
But if Russia is not a threat, then why the campaign of vilification, the damaging economic sanctions, and the provocative military actions?
First, it is the silly season—American elections—and bear baiting is an easy way to look “tough.” It is also a tried and true tactic of the U.S. armaments industry to keep their production lines humming and their bottom lines rising. The Islamic State is scary but you don’t need big-ticket weapons systems to fight it. The $1.5 trillion F-35s are for the Russkies, not terrorists.
There are also those who still dream of regime change in Russia. Certainly that was in the minds of the neo-cons when they used The National Endowment for Democracy and Freedom House to engineer—at the cost of $5 billion—the coup that toppled Ukraine into NATO’s camp. The New American Century gang and their think tanks—who brought you Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria—would to leverage Russia out of Central Asia.
The most frightening aspect of current East-West tension is that there is virtually no discussion of the subject, and when there is it consists largely of distorted history and gratuitous insults. Vladimir Putin might not be a nice guy, but the evidence he is trying to re-establish some Russian empire, and is a threat to his neighbors or the U.S., is thin to non-existent. His 2014 speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club is more common sense than bombast.
Expansionist? Russia has two bases in the Middle East and a handful in Central Asia. The U.S. has 662 bases around the world and Special Forces (SOF) deployed in between 70 and 90 countries at any moment. Last year SOFs were active in 147 countries. The U.S. is actively engaged in five wars and is considering a sixth in Libya. Russian military spending will fall next year, and the U.S. will out-spend Moscow by a factor of 10. Who in this comparison looks threatening?
There are a number of areas where cooperation with Russia could pay dividends. Without Moscow there would be no nuclear agreement with Iran, and the Russians can play a valuable role in resolving the Syrian civil war. That, in turn, would have a dramatic effect on the numbers of migrants trying to crowd into Europe.
Instead, an April 20 meeting between NATO ministers and Russia ended in “profound disagreements” according to alliance head Jens Stoltenberg. Russian ambassador to NATO, Alexander Garushko said that the continued deployment of armed forces on its borders makes it impossible to have a “meaningful dialogue.”
We are baiting the bear, not a sport that ever ends well.