24 Jul 2016

Thank Allah for Western Democracy, Despondency and Defeat

Aidan O’Brien

Our Muslim prayers are being answered. The barbaric West is fragmenting before our eyes. After the English and Welsh decided to turn their backs on the Western establishment: now the Turkish government is purging the Turkish military – the largest NATO army after the US behemoth.
Since what feels like time immemorial or at least since the first Gulf War (1991) all the violence and chaos in the Middle East has been one way traffic. NATO and it’s terror network (Sunni fundamentalism) has been tearing the guts out of the Arab nation – to the advantage of Israel. But today after 30 or so years of destruction, the violence and chaos is returning home via the back lanes of Western democracy, Western despondency and Western defeat. Get out the yellow ribbons.
We’re witnessing the people of the West voting against the interests of the West. The Greek referendum last year. The British referendum this year. And it’s a safe bet that wherever and whenever the next referendum will be – the same finger will be shown to the West.
The uncertain general elections everywhere in the West (even in Australia). And the spectre of nationalism – which in the mind of the Western liberal is equal to if not worse than the old spectre of communism – completes the NATO nightmare. Let the good times roll.
Together with the democratic rejection of the West within the West, there is the loss of meaning in the streets of the West.
Neoliberalism has created a despondent populace which sees no point in the West’s big plan to rule the world. The positive side effect of institutionalised cynicism – or if you like: postmodernism – is that it destroys not just respect for socialism (the target) but also respect for Western civilisation.
The cultivation of nihilism has undermined not just the discipline of the organised working class (the target) but also the discipline of Western society. As a result there are a billion atoms running aimlessly around the streets of the West. The atomised however were never lobotomised nor completely dehumanised and so they are a billion time bombs waiting to explode. Let the party begin.
The fact that France – one of the pillars of postmodernism – is now experiencing this nihilistic process with a vengeance is darkly poetic. Because it is France that led the recent charge of Western nihilism into Libya. And as well as that horrendous crime, France is a lynchpin in the overall destruction of modernism in Syria and Iraq. The fact is that the postmodern poster boy – France – doesn’t enlighten anymore. And the darkness it now is passing through is a self inflicted blindness.
Not long ago France had the knowledge of the world in it’s hands. And it blew it. And now it’s citizens are blowing themselves up.
Why France? As a victim of hubris, France promotes itself as the leader of Europe. And so it leaves itself wide open to attack when Europe attacks North Africa and the Middle East. But being postmodern it acts as if it’s actions have no consequences. France and NATO are at a loss to explain blowback – blowback from postmodernism, blowback from neoliberalism and blowback from imperialism. Concepts that are missing amidst all the tears.
Why France? Because France is a European leader an attack on France really is an attack on Europe. However it is not an attack on the European ruling class but an attack on the European working class. The manipulated massacres on the streets of France are a way of controlling the streets of Europe. And for that reason it is unclear who is behind the mayhem.
ISIS is the convenient scapegoat. But ISIS is the creation of the West’s favourite oil and gas sheiks. In the mainstream mind-fuck the Western use and abuse of Islamic fundamentalism for imperial reasons is never mentioned. Neither are the CIA, MI6, the DGSE (the French secret service) and Mossad. All these profoundly ignorant agencies specialise in sinister covert actions. And they all get away with it in the mainstream. All the time.
For Western power: Western despondency is just as dangerous as Western democracy. If fear is the only way to control aimless populations then NATO’s covert terror system abroad can easily be brought home. The catch however for power is that despondent people are more often than not fearless. As we saw this week in Nice when the local crowd jeered the French prime minister, Manuel Valls.
Everything solid about the West is melting into thin air. Let’s inhale it. And get high.
And the greatest high is the defeat of the West in Syria. By actively supporting the Syrian government in September 2015, Russia set in motion a chain of events that culminated in the attempted coup in Turkey last week. Russia forced regime change back across the border.
And so the “Gulf Wars” – the wars of regime changes – might be coming to an end at last. The failed Turkish coup is the first great reversal in the West’s barbaric march Eastwards.
It is important to note that the failed coup came less than a month after Turkey apologised to Russia for shooting down it’s aircraft over Syria in November 2015. According to the Guardian Turkey wrote to Russia that it:
“never had the desire or the deliberate intention of shooting down the Russian federation’s plane” and was ready to do everything possible to restore friendly ties…”
In a time when NATO is preparing for war with Russia, Turkey’s move towards peace is a serious act of disobedience.
And because Turkey’s government survived the coup this act of disobedience continues. This week, according to the Financial Times, the Turkish government detained 6,138 members of the Turkish military. NATO is spooked. The West – the butchers of the Arab nation – this week even dared to lecture Turkey about human rights.
By exposing the West – Turkey may have just redeemed itself. And indeed it may have redeemed political Islam as well (as opposed to Islamic fundamentalism – a NATO tool). If this is a serious fracture in the West’s plan – and we think it is – then we celebrate the Turkish people. We support Turkey’s “Islamic” victory  over NATO’s barbarians. It’s a good reason not to be despondent.

Top 10 Reasons Why It’s Just Fine for U.S. to Blow Up Children

David Swanson

Is it really necessary for me to explain to you why it’s acceptable, necessary, and admirable for the United States and its minor allies to be blowing up houses, families, men, women, and children in Syria?
This latest story of blowing up 85 civilians in their homes has some people confused and concerned. Let me help you out.
1. Somebody mistook them for ISIS fighters, determined that each of them was a continuing and imminent threat to the United States, verified a near zero possibility of any civilians being hurt in the process, and determined that some more bombing was just the way to advance a cease-fire in Syria. So this was not only an accident, but a series of unfortunate events, mistakes, and miscalculations of such proportions that they’re unlikely ever to all align again for at least a few days to come.
2. This isn’t actually news. That the United States is blowing up civilians by the hundreds in Syria has been endlessly reported and is really of no news value, which is why you don’t hear anybody at presidential conventions or on TV talking about it, and why you shouldn’t talk aboiut it either if you know what’s good for you.
3. Quite a lot of families actually got away without being blown up and are now refugees, which is truly the ideal thing to be in Syria, which is the most totally prepared place for more refugees in the history of the earth, or would be if liberal internationalist do-gooders would provide some aid and stop whining about all the bombs falling.
4. Who gets labeled a “civilian” is pretty arbitrary. The United States has killed thousands of people who clearly were not civilians, and who likely had no loved ones or anyone who would become enraged by their deaths. So why lump particular groups of families into the category of “civilian,” and why just assume that every 3-year-old is a civilian, and then turn around and complain with a straight face when the government labels every 18-year-old male a combatant?
5. Houses do not actually have feelings. Why be so bothered that people are blown up in their houses? I’ll let you in on a little secret: The word “battlefield” hasn’t meant anything that looks like a field for decades. They don’t even have fields in some of these countries that don’t know any better than to get themselves bombed over and over again. These wars are always in houses. Do you want the houses bombed or do you want the doors kicked in? Because when the Marines start kicking in doors and hauling people off to torture camps you whine about that too.
6. People who live in an ISIS territory are responsible for ISIS. Even those who didn’t vote in the most recent ISIS election have a responsibility to get themselves burned alive, and if not then they are responsible for the evil of ISIS and ought to be burned alive by Raytheon missiles which at least make somebody some money in the process for godsake. And if ISIS won’t let people flee its territory, but won’t burn them alive, then it’s time for the international community to step in with efficient burning-alive systems that meet international standards.
7. Donald Trump has sworn he would start killing families. If the U.S. government does not continue its centuries-old practice of killing families, Trump might gain support and endanger us all by creating the new policy of killing families.
8. When airplanes take off from Turkey to commit mass murder in Syria, it helps to bring Turkey back into the community of the rule of law and international respect for human rights, following the recent coup attempt. Keeping U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey serves a similar purpose.
9. Sometimes when you blow people up in their houses, their heads can remain on their bodies. When U.S.-armed moderates behead children, they’re doing it for the goal of moderating the moderation of moderate allies and allied moderates. But when the United States kills directly, it is important that there be a chance of some heads remaining on bodies.
10. Unlike every other country on earth, the United States is not a party to the Convention on the Rights of the Child, so, in the words of the great Thomas Friedman, suck on this.

Terrorism Redux

Michael Brenner

Most Americans think they know what “terrorism” is: what happened on 9/11, what happened in Orlando.  Islamic militants murdering innocent civilians out of hate and in the cause of Islamist jihad. Experience shapes how we understand the world. The Global War On Terror has been oriented accordingly.
More formal definitions of “terrorism” try to extend the term so as to encompass a wider range of violent acts. Here is one:
Terrorism is commonly defined as violent acts (or the threat of violent acts) intended to create fear (terror), perpetrated for a religious, political, or ideological goal, and which deliberately target or disregard the safety of non-combatants (e.g., neutral military personnel or civiliansWikipedia
Here is another:
Criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in the public, a group of persons or particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or any other nature that may be invoked to justify them” United Nations General Assembly 1994
These formulations strive to be objective and disengaged from individual events  – however noteworthy. Popular attitudes, the media usages and political oratory tend to revert to the entrenched more common usage. For “terrorism: -as word and concept – is emotionally charged. Hence, the killings by Dr. Nidal Hassan at Ft. Hood are labelled “terrorism” while the rampage of Dylan Roof in Charleston in the name of White Supremacy is just mass murder. The killing by the mentally disturbed, apolitical Michael Zehaf-Bibeau (half Bulgarian, half French-Canadian) at the Ottawa Parliament is “terrorism” while Sandy Hook is not.
Similar inconsistencies are evident in the labels attached to violent actions abroad. “Terrorism” usually is reserved for the actions of sub-national groups; governments of states are exempt even when the purpose of instilling fear is advertised in advance as in “shock and awe.” It was Iraqis, not future historians, who were meant to experience “shock and awe.” The repression of insurrectionist movements of all stripes by existing governments everywhere has a strong psychological component.
So how do we go about refining our definition of “terrorism” so that it can be used to advance understanding rather than as an epithet?
A fruitful discussion of “terrorism” requires a specification of the exercise’s purpose. Is it primarily to define the term’s meaning with as much precision as we can – with the companion objective of using it to delineate the various forms and modalities of its multiple manifestations? If we were to succeed, it then becomes an intellectual tool to illuminate the range of real life phenomena that exhibit characteristics associated with a more general, less precise use of the term. This is the rigorously logical approach taken in science. There, the only acceptable attitude is to seek finer and more refined classifications of observed reality so as to advance our understanding and, thereby, to lay the basis for better prediction of observed phenomena..
Many participants in the public discourse about “terror” have a quite different purpose.  It is to apply the word as a pejorative to certain acts and actors in order to stigmatize them.  This is a political exercise rather than an intellectual one. Hence, the promiscuous appellation “terror” and “state sponsor of terrorism” in accusations that target Iran – however inconsistent that usage is with the terminology applied to the behavior (real or imagined) of other states e.g. Saudi Arabia and its GCC partners or Turkey.  The aim is to produce a certain emotional effect that encourages certain types of responses. In popular usage, it is akin to calling someone a “bastard” or a ‘son of a bitch” as an insult without bothering to determine the legal status of his parents or his mother’s temperament.
There is a third – also loose – use of the term “terror” by the media. They seek the “wow” effect. If 8 people die from the violent act of some crackpot, they are just as dead whether an anchor decides to use the word “terror” or not. Of course, were there clear organization and direction by some identifiable group with a political agenda, the designation might have some meaning. But for the MSM that usually is less important than being able to stick the terror label on an event in order to generate the most excitement and follow-on viewership. If the alleged “terrorist” has a beard, so much the better.
Few in public discourse differentiate and specify traits among a range of phenomenon as a stepping stone toward finer comprehension. Nor do they make much of an effort to expose political motives behind the use of the term “terror” – or withholding the label in other situations.
It is instructive, too, to examine closely “terror” as a legal concept. For that examination highlights that precise stipulations of what is illegal are the sine qua non for making judicial determinations.   However, it is not obvious that legal determinations are at the heart of the matter when we speak of actions that transcend borders in one way or another. Admittedly, the attempt to make such a determination can be important insofar as the United States government and a few others have sought to establish a legal standard as the basis for applying sanctions of one kind or another. The effort to come up with an agreed international standard is much more difficult – for readily identifiable reasons. (As with “aggression.”) In either instance, the designation of certain actions as being beyond the legal pale runs up against two recurrent problems.  First is the question of legitimacy. There is in fact no authority that can rightly claim indisputable authority to stipulate illegal behavior – even were it possible to agree on a definition. Second, there is no impartial judicial authority to make the crucial determination of violation and therefore guilt. In short, there is no international “government.”
So what we have is a patchwork of mainly unilateral, nationally prescribed rules that reflect the interests and preferences of each country. As is normal, the more powerful countries try to universalize those rules and norms. That is what has been going on in regard to “terror.” This is a futile approach. Governments, groups and persons will continue to do what they deem necessary without regard to what Washington or largely Western legal scholars think. Moreover, anyone who challenges the status quo will make the charge of hypocrisy – on justifiable grounds. Was the unsanctioned (by the UNSC) American invasion of Iraq legal in any sense of the term? Are Israel’s attacks on Gaza distinguishable from “terror” in any meaningful sense? Are “signature strikes” by drones? Is Saudi Arabia’s air campaign against Yemeni cities? Did the Ukrainian AZOV Brigade, a current White House favorite that sports Nazi insignia and is slated to receive training by the US Army, commit an act of “terrorism” in burning to death Russian civilians in Odessa? Is the murder of civilian scientists in Iran an act of terror – after all it instills fear in colleagues that encourages them to emigrate?
Is it not more productive from a policy perspective to do the following:
1/ Identify and specify various categories of violent behavior that fall broadly under a loose conception of “terror” – assigning certain traits to each
2/ Use the resulting taxonomy as the basis for understanding the whys and hows of each instance.
3/ Make a determination of what might be the most effective way to address them – from a given government’s perspective, NOT from the perspective of some abstract standard of crime and illegality.
4/ That response may logically include an attempt to mobilize resistance by stigmatizing a given action as “terror.” But that in itself is not a legal exercise or a valid intellectual exercise.
5/ As to outlawing it – good luck. People have tried to outlaw war and other forms of inter-state and sub-national violence for a few centuries. It won’t and can’t work.
Perhaps the most notable achievement is the promulgation of international law to set limits on the employment of violence is the Convention Against Torture. It expresses an ethical consensus that emerged from an awareness of common humanity. However, violations of the Convention have been widespread – even among the postwar Western countries. The French used torture extensively in Algeria. The United States established an elaborate torture regime under orders from the White House which judged international prohibitions on torture “quaint”. The treatment of Manning, too, meets the US military’s own definition of torture. Admittedly, there were some practices that American authorities could not abide; so they were sub-contracted to specialists in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, Ethiopia and Thailand.
II.
The Orlando episode illustrates these conceptual and intellectual ambiguities. As the news broke, it was easy to reach for the “terrorism” label. Mateen was a Muslim and he had called 911 to pledge his allegiance to the Islamic State. That was enough even for President Obama whose reaction otherwise was restrained and thoughtful. He declared: “we know enough to say that this was an act of terror.” Only of we apply the simplistic standard just noted. Additional evidence later did appear that indicated that the killer had certain sympathies with the acts of the violent jihadis. Still, there is not a scintilla of evidence of his having any association with a group which have pointed him in the direction of committing a mass murder – much less instructing him in where and how to commit it. The picture is a muddled psychological mosaic of a mentally unbalanced person who also hated gays, women, and blacks. Moreover, as a latent (or perhaps active) homosexual who at the same time loathed gays on religious and other grounds, he was a man at war with himself.
Yet, this complex story quickly was placed in the “Islamic terrorist” category, moving our two presidential candidates to call for intensified bombing of Daesh in Syria and Iraq. If we are striving for analytical insight into the man, his motives and the event’s meaning for policy, we should acknowledgement that Orlando is not mainly an issue of Islamic terrorism. To do so, is to fall into the intellectual trap of confusing veneer for the underlying cause, of stressing form of expression at the expense of motor force. Meerton was a psychopath with deep-seated, unresolvable mental problems. Their elements mingled in a lethal cocktail mixing his crisis of sexual identity with jihadist imagery and example. It seems reasonable to speculate that he would have gone on some sort of rampage whether ISIS existed or not. We don’t know.
Circumstances created a set of influences that led him down this particular emotional path: the graphically publicized ISIS violence phenomenon, and the prominence given the gay revolution. I suspect that one element in the emotional mix was the unconscious impulse to kill the very self (latent homosexual) which another part of him loathed. This is classic projection. And that likely was the psychological dynamic that drove him to atrocity and tragedy. A comparison with the Santa Monica kid who seemingly intended to commit the same sort of mass murder would be instructive. No Islamic factor at all involved in that latter case
As to the declaration of allegiance to ISIS during the attack – shouldn’t we consider that this most likely is a last desperate claim to some sort of identity and value from a mentally ill man who has just committed an act of violence against anonymous victims? It is more emotionally gratifying to suddenly pronounce himself an Islamist agent than to proclaim the unpalatable truth: I am a mental mess, a non-entity who hasn’t the slightest idea why I am doing such a crazy thing!! I know of no killer anywhere who ever has made that statement despite it’s being close to the truth in most such cases.
Giving greater weight to individual psychology strikes me as prudent and well-intended.  Yes, there was an Islamist factor at play in the final act. Logically, there seems no reason to view the challenge of explanation as an either/or proposition. Most phenomena are multi-causal – and entail proximate and underlying causes both.
We also should be aware that any society always finds it far easier to blame “them” than to concentrate on the “we.” The “we” in this case is a national society that is gradually unravelling – having loosened its moorings to fixed structures and behavioral norms. The consequence will be a plethora of odd, often anti-social conduct – much of it can be called nihilistic.* It’s observable all around us. Violent acts are a signature manifestation of that troubled reality. And radical Islam provides one trigger.
What have learned from the “Orlando” episode? Not much. It has not deepened our understanding of transnational terrorist networks since Mateen wasn’t connected to them. It has provided us with no valuable information since this was a solo operation by a mentally ill person. As to the ISIS reference, there is no way to insulate susceptible persons from the influences of violent Islamic
fundamentalism in the IT age. They will still be out there even were ISIS, al-Qaeda and all the others to be beaten on the ground. It not within our power to neutralize it no matter how many inter-agency task forces Washington creates to devise counter propaganda.
”Orlando” provides nothing in the way of guidance as how to anticipate and prevent such attacks either. Matten was a mental case – filled with hate generated from within his twisted mind. That hatred was oriented in several directions. The FBI, by happenstance, actually identified the guy and two investigations uncovered no reason to suspect that he might become a mass killer. If there was failure, it was on the part of those who knew him. His wife, especially, should have alerted authorities when he began to prepare his assault.
This narrative does indicate that there are a few things that we might do.
1/ Think seriously about the legal and ethical aspects of generating pressures on family and friends to report persons who are engaged in concrete preparations for terrorist acts
2/ Stop wasting FBI and local police resources on silly entrapment schemes that target losers who are recruited by agents and then arrested so as to meet some sort of implicit quota
3/ Pay due attention to the nefarious effects of American military actions in the greater Middle East whose dire impact on local Muslim populations has been cited by every perpetrator of terrorist acts here and elsewhere in the West as a primary motivation for their violence.
4 Of course, any terrorist attack of this sort will produce greatly magnified casualties so long as we view individual ownership of war weapons as the cornerstone of American democracy
Nice
Much of what is said about Orlando above is true of Nice as well. Since it has no singular traits, and since it offers no additional information about violent Salafist networks, the Nice incident is without features of interest to the analyst of terrorism and terrorists.
The seeming redundancy of this tragic event was matched by the redundancy of media coverage and analysts’ interpretations. They immediately declared the incident an act of “terrorism,” i.e. associated with extremist Islamist groups such as Daesh and al-Qaida- whether by direction or inspiration. At the time that judgment was pronounced, there was not a scintilla of evidence to support it. That is, unless we appraise any act of mass killing by someone with a Muslim name to be an Islamist “terrorism.”  Indeed, as yet there still are no concrete grounds for asserting that there was any association between Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel and those organizations.
Nonetheless, we got an almost instantaneous declaration from France’s defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian promptly blaming the Daesh terrorist network for inspiring the assault, while its top law enforcement official, Interior Minister Bertrand Cazeneuve said the attacker, who was not previously known to intelligence agencies, may have “radicalized himself very quickly.”
“Quick” is in this case would qualify for a Guinness Book of World Records entry since the attacker’s sister, and others, testified that he had never entered a mosque in his life” – in Tunisia or in France; his friends were a mixed ethnic bag of petty criminals and misfits; had no acquaintanceship in Islamist circles. At this writing, there are reports that he may have met with an ISIL recruiter who saw in him a target of opportunity. That possible contact would have been only for a duration of days. What to make of it? Assuming such an encounter, the instigator would have had to convince Bouhlel of two things: to commit suicide, and to do so in a Salafist cause – however tenuous the tie. It is not unreasonable that someone in his erratic state of mind already had a strong suicidal predisposition. It cannot be fostered in a week or two, as has been pointed out by Dr. Jonathan Himmelhoch, Professor of Psychiatry  at the University of Pittsburgh and previously at Yale University. Nor is it realistic to postulate, Himmelhoch explains, that an agent could instill a dogmatic doctrine in someone that quickly. Apparently, what is conceivable is that Bouhlet imbibed enough of the Salafist drug to catalyze his suicidal impulses.**
Lahouaiej Bouhlel, therefore, falls into the category of the mentally unstable socio-paths who find an outlet for their inner demons through murder. Where and when he fixed on the idea of driving a truck into massed celebrants in Nice is comparatively insignificant. Even were the ultimate stimulus that prompted him to act was a sudden visualization of himself in the mold of a Daesh suicide killer, there remains the cardinal truth that the necessary condition and readiness and motivation for his atrocious action came from within the man himself.
*These intangible elements of post-modern society are exceedingly difficult to pin down or to conceptualize. Yet, it is evident that they have a bearing on how many think, feel and act. It the causal chain that is near impossible to trace. So, too, for the weighing of their importance in determining any individual action. Who can deny, though, that socialization in a childhood and adolescence of video games raises the threshold of tolerance for violence as something ‘normal’ – and of loosening the connection between act and grisly consequence? Who can deny that the American culture of extreme individual permissiveness has fostered an environment enabling of emotionally self-serving narcissistic behavior? Who can deny the plethora of celebrity models – whether in politics, entertainment, business or wherever – who encourage the blurring of the distinction between virtual and actual realities? Can we honestly deny that there is some link between these socio-cultural developments and the disposition to engage in sociopathic violence?  
** WSJ 18 July “François Molins, the chief Paris prosecutor overseeing the investigation into the Bastille Day attack, said Monday that police haven’t found any evidence that Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel explicitly pledged allegiance to Islamic State or had links to any people associated with the Sunni Muslim militant group.
However, the prosecutor painted a picture of a man who underwent a rapid transformation in the weeks leading up the massacre and became suddenly enthralled with extremist messages and ultra-violent images.
Data recovered from Lahouaiej Bouhlel’s computer included pictures of militants draped in Islamic State flags and corpses as well as photos of Osama bin Laden and Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the head of an al Qaeda-aligned group called Murabitun. His computer also turned up searches for “horrible car accidents” and “shock videos,” Mr. Molins said.”

Could a Military Coup Happen Here?

John Feffer

News of the military coup in Turkey was dribbling in on Saturday afternoon when I was having lunch with a group of six friends in West Virginia. Suddenly, one person looked up from her salad and said, “If Trump gets elected, I’d support a military coup in this country.” At least one other person at the table seconded her opinion.
I was astonished. Since when had the “military option” become a viable political strategy in the United States? Maybe it was the ghost of John Brown or something in the drinking water out there near Harpers Ferry. Or perhaps the peculiar conjunction of Turkey and Trump had elicited what must surely be an unpopular sentiment in America.
Then I did some research. It turns out that the views around the table matched those of average Americans. According to a September 2015 poll by YouGov, nearly one-third of respondents (29 percent) “could imagine a situation in which they would support the military seizing control of the federal government.” That number went up to 43 percent in a hypothetical situation in which the government was beginning to violate the U.S. constitution.
Back in September, Republicans were more than twice as likely as Democrats to back the coup scenario. It would be interesting to redo the poll today, as voters begin to contemplate a Trump presidency. Consider, for instance, journalist and Bernie Sanders supporter Shaun King, who recently created a firestorm on the right when he tweeted, “If Donald Trump becomes President, you are fooling yourself if you think we’re far from having a coup our own selves. I’m dead serious.”
Trump’s rhetorical flouting of international and national laws has prompted many an unexpected speculation. In an interview with Bill Maher back in February, ex-CIA head Michael Hayden talked about Trump’s pledge to kill the family members of terrorists. Hayden said:
“If he were to order that once in government, the American armed forces would refuse to act.”
“That’s quite a statement, sir,” Maher said.
“You are required not to follow an unlawful order,” Hayden added. “That would be in violation of all the international laws of armed conflict.”
“You’ve given us a great reason not to support Trump. There would be a coup in this country,” Maher joked.
Hayden said he didn’t mean to imply that the military would provoke “a coup.”
Indeed, many members of the military brass would likely resign rather than openly defy their commander in chief. As for the rank and file, they support Trump over Clinton two to one. But that doesn’t mean they’re particularly enthusiastic about the choice. According to a Military Times poll, “More than 61 percent indicated they are ‘dissatisfied’ or ‘very dissatisfied’ with Trump as the Republican nominee, including 28 percent of those who intend to vote for him.” It’s hard to predict from these statistics how the military would respond if a Trump administration began to shred the constitution.
But it’s not hard to predict how Americans feel about the military overall. Americans have long trusted the military more than any other institution in society. In 2016, according to Gallup, Congress achieved a 9 percent trust rating, the Supreme Court and the presidency 36 percent, organized religion 41 percent, the police 56 percent, and at the top of the list, the military at 73 percent. Only small business has ever approached the same level of trust as the military, according to the averages Gallup has collected over 43 years.
So, it’s no real surprise that, when given a choice, Americans would lean toward the military to safeguard their laws and their liberty. But before you start weighing the relative merits of accepting either Trump or the U.S. military going rogue – the former upending the constitution and the latter sticking up for it – let’s take a closer look at what just transpired in Turkey.
Keystone Kops Craft Kemalist Coup
When it comes to coups, the Turkish military should be the experts. After all, they’ve successfully executed 3.5 of them over the last half-century: in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997 (the last being a half-coup since the military, rather than intervening directly, pressured the government to resign).
It’s been nearly 20 years since this last half-coup, and obviously the Turkish military has gotten rusty after deviating from its once-a-decade routine. Last weekend, the coup leaders looked more like rank amateurs than seasoned pros. They failed to take out or otherwise neutralize President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was vacationing on the Mediterranean coast at the time. They seized control of the least important state TV channel. They didn’t secure important government buildings. They told their supporters to go home and then fired on the civilians who did come out onto the streets. They seemed to have forgotten about the existence of social media. They weren’t even able to forge a pro-coup consensus within the military itself.
The attempt was so botched that it generated numerous conspiracy theories – that Erdogan had engineered the whole thing, that the president had heard rumblings and deliberately ignored them, that the Americans were somehow behind it all.
The truth is much more mundane. Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party have been weakening the military for more than a decade, systematically working to remove the military’s influence on government. They’ve used earlier coup rumors to go after military officers – as well as journalists and officials – supposedly involved in a “deep state” controlling Turkish politics behind the scenes. As a result, the Turkish military is a far cry from the all-powerful institution of the 1970s and 1980s.
I was convinced, after visiting Istanbul in 2013, that the military had become a spent force. At the time I wrote:
The AKP has effectively contained the Turkish military through judicial and constitutional means. The threat of a coup, so prevalent in modern Turkish history, has largely disappeared. Not only have constitutional changes and court cases reduced the power of the army, the Erdogan government has also come close to resolving the decades-long civil war with the Kurdish PKK. The end of this conflict would go a long way toward removing the military from public affairs.
But then the Erdogan government decided to initiate two wars: against the Gulen movement and against the Kurds. The Gulen movement, named for its leader Fethullah Gulen who currently lives in the United States, preaches a liberal variety of Islam and runs a number of schools worldwide. It was also a major supporter of Erdogan and the AKP. But Erdogan began to worry about the spreading influence of Gulen supporters in the police, the judiciary, and the government itself. They began to resemble the “deep state” that Erdogan wanted to extirpate. In late 2013, he turned against the Gulen movement. The Erdogan government subsequently accused Gulen of orchestrating the coup and has demanded that the United States extradite him.
Meanwhile, Erdogan was concerned that domestically the Kurdish minority stood in the way of greater centralized power in Ankara and that Kurds in Syria stood in the way of greater Turkish influence over the outcome of the war against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. But taking on the Kurds meant ushering the military back into public life in Turkey. As Erdogan pushed for a new constitution to grant the presidency more powers and cracked down on any segments of society that might stymie his ambitions, he had to ensure that at least part of the military was on his side.
Some in the military were not happy with the bargain, whether because they disapproved of Erdogan’s power grab, the campaign against Gulen or the renewed conflict with the Kurds, or the AKP’s challenge to the Kemalist tradition, which respects a strict division between religion and state. According to the statement they released to the press, the coupsters offered to restore precisely what many in Turkey believe Erdogan has taken away from them: “Turkish Armed Forces have completely taken over the administration of the country to reinstate constitutional order, human rights and freedoms, the rule of law and the general security that was damaged.”
If they couldn’t count on the military closing ranks behind them, the coup leaders at least needed the support of the Turkish population. This wasn’t going to be easy, given that Erdogan’s party won around 50 percent of the vote in the last election. Even Turks who vehemently oppose Erdogan and would agree with the content of the coup statement did not believe that the military was the agent of their salvation. “The worst democracy is better than the best coup,” one Turkish liberal told The New York Times.
Having quashed the coup, Erdogan is moving quickly to consolidate his advantage by purging the military and the courts. The Turkish government has detained more than 7,500 people, including 2,800 officers and soldiers and more than 100 generals and admirals, and dismissed 2,700 judges and 9,000 civil servants. Most recently, the government suspended more than 15,000 educators and asked 1,500 university deans to resign. Call it a counter-coup, but it’s just an industrial-strength version of what Erdogan has been up to now for several years. In fact, for the government to act so quickly, it must have had lists of its targets drawn up well in advance.
That doesn’t mean that Erdogan planned the coup. It just means that sometimes your adversaries help clear your path to power.
Which brings us back to the Donald.
A Man, A Plan, A Coup
According to the aforementioned YouGov poll, 43 percent of Republicans could imagine the necessity of a military coup in the United States, rising to 55 percent in the event of constitutional violations. Those numbers look a lot like the kind of support Donald Trump enjoyed during the Republican primaries when a plurality, but not a majority, voted for him. Only when the primary season was coming to an end did his numbers rise above 50 percent among Republican voters.
It’s tempting to conclude that the same folks who approve of a military intervention into politics support Donald Trump’s intervention into politics. Trump is, in a way, a one-man coup. He is an outsider. He has contempt for the normal workings of democracy. As he has amply demonstrated in his dealings in the business world, he rules by fiat and by twisting arms.
But the mechanism by which Trump seizes power will not be a coup. For the moment at least, the ballot box still rules. If he manages to attain the White House in November, it will not because of the brilliant organizing of the Republican Party, which is divided, feckless, and craven. It will be because his adversaries hand him the opportunity on a platter.
I know Recep Tayyip Erdogan – well, not really – and Donald Trump is no Erdogan. But the Donald’s will to power is comparable. It’s up to Trump’s adversaries to prevent him from crowning himself president – or else there will be many more conversations next fall about the plusses and minuses of military coups.

The Big Boom: Nukes And NATO

Conn Hallinan


“Today, the danger of some sort of a nuclear catastrophe is greater than it was during the Cold War and most people are blissfully unaware of this danger.”
-William J. Perry, U.S. Sec. Of Defense (1994-97)
Perry has been an inside player in the business of nuclear weapons for over 60 years and his book, “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink,” is a sober read. It is also a powerful counterpoint to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) current European strategy that envisions nuclear weapons as a deterrent to war:  “Their [nuclear weapons] role is to prevent major war, not to wage wars,” argues the Alliance’s magazine, NATO Review.
But, as Perry points out, it is only by chance that the world has avoided a nuclear war—sometimes by nothing more than dumb luck—and, rather than enhancing our security, nukes “now endanger it.”
The 1962 Cuban missile crisis is generally represented as a dangerous standoff resolved by sober diplomacy. In fact, it was a single man—Russian submarine commander Vasili Arkhipov—who countermanded orders to launch a nuclear torpedo at an American destroyer that could have set off a full-scale nuclear exchange between the USSR and the U.S.
There were numerous other incidents that brought the world to the brink. On a quiet morning in November 1979, a NORAD computer reported a full-scale Russian sneak attack with land and sea-based missiles, which led to scrambling U.S. bombers and alerting U.S. missile silos to prepare to launch. There was no attack, just an errant test tape.
Lest anyone think the Nov. 9 incident was an anomaly, a little more than six months later NORAD computers announced that Soviet submarines had launched 220 missiles at the U.S.—this time the cause was a defective chip that cost 49 cents—again resulting in scrambling interceptors and putting the silos on alert.myjourneyperry
But don’t these examples prove that accidental nuclear war is unlikely? That conclusion is a dangerous illusion, argues Perry, because the price of being mistaken is so high and because the world is a more dangerous place than it was in 1980.
It is 71 years since atomic bombs destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and humanity’s memory of those events has dimmed. But even were the entire world to read John Hersey’s Hiroshima, it would have little idea of what we face today.
The bombs that obliterated those cities were tiny by today’s standards, and comparing “Fat Man” and “Little Boy”—the incongruous names of the weapons that leveled both cities—to modern weapons stretches any analogy beyond the breaking point. If the Hiroshima bomb represented approximately 27 freight cars filled with TNT, a one-megaton warhead would require a train 300 miles long.
Each Russian RS-20V Voevoda intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) packs 10 megatons.
What has made today’s world more dangerous, however, is not just advances in the destructive power of nuclear weapons, but a series of actions by the last three U.S. administrations.
First was the decision by President Bill Clinton to abrogate a 1990 agreement with the Soviet Union not to push NATO further east after the reunification of Germany or to recruit former members of the defunct Warsaw Pact.
NATO has also reneged on a 1997 pledge not to install “permanent” and “significant” military forces in former Warsaw Pact countries. This month NATO decided to deploy four battalions on, or near, the Russian border, arguing that since the units will be rotated they are not “permanent” and are not large enough to be “significant.” It is a linguistic slight of hand that does not amuse Moscow.
Second was the 1999 U.S.-NATO intervention in the Yugoslav civil war and the forcible dismemberment of Serbia. It is somewhat ironic that Russia is currently accused of using force to “redraw borders in Europe” by annexing the Crimea, which is exactly what NATO did to create Kosovo. The U.S. subsequently built Camp Bond Steel, Washington’s largest base in the Balkans.
Third was President George W, Bush’s unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the decision by the Obama administration to deploy anti-missile systems in Romania and Poland, as well as Japan and South Korea.
Last is the decision by the White House to spend upwards of $1 trillion upgrading its nuclear weapons arsenal, which includes building bombs with smaller yields, a move that many critics argue blurs the line between conventional and nuclear weapons.
The Yugoslav War and NATO’s move east convinced Moscow that the Alliance was surrounding Russia with potential adversaries, and the deployment of anti-missile systems (ABM)—supposedly aimed at Iran’s non-existent nuclear weapons—was seen as a threat to the Russian’s nuclear missile force.
One immediate effect of ABMs was to chill the possibility of further cuts in the number of nuclear weapons. When Obama proposed another round of warhead reductions, the Russians turned it down cold, citing the anti-missile systems as the reason. “How can we take seriously this idea about cuts in strategic nuclear potential while the United States is developing its capabilities to intercept Russian missiles?” asked Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.
When the U.S. helped engineer the 2014 coup against the pro-Russian government in Ukraine, it ignited the current crisis that has led to several dangerous incidents between Russian and NATO forces—at last count, according to the European Leadership Network, more than 60. Several large war games were also held on Moscow’s borders. Former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev went so far as to accuse NATO of  “preparations for switching from a cold war to a hot war.”
In response, the Russians have also held war games involving up to 80,000 troops.
It is unlikely that NATO intends to attack Russia, but the power differential between the U.S. and Russia is so great—a “colossal asymmetry,” Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, told the Financial Times—that the Russians have abandoned their “no first use” of nuclear weapons pledge.
It the lack of clear lines that make the current situation so fraught with danger. While the Russians have said they would consider using small,tactical nukes if “the very existence of the state” was threatened by an attack, NATO is being deliberately opaque about its possible tripwires. According to NATO Review, nuclear “exercises should involve not only nuclear weapons states…but other non-nuclear allies,” and “to put the burden of the doubt on potential adversaries, exercises should not point at any specific nuclear thresholds.”
In short, keep the Russians guessing. The immediate problem with such a strategy is: what if Moscow guesses wrong?
That won’t be hard to do. The U.S. is developing a long-range cruise missile—as are the Russians—that can be armed with conventional or nuclear warheads. But how will an adversary know which is which? And given the old rule in nuclear warfare—use ‘em, or lose ‘em—uncertainty is the last thing one wants to engender in a nuclear-armed foe.
Indeed, the idea of no “specific nuclear thresholds” is one of the most extraordinarily dangerous and destabilizing concepts to come along since the invention of nuclear weapons.
There is no evidence that Russia contemplates an attack on the Baltic states or countries like Poland, and, given the enormous power of the U.S., such an undertaking would court national suicide.
Moscow’s “aggression” against Georgia and Ukraine was provoked. Georgia attacked Russia, not vice versa, and the Ukraine coup torpedoed a peace deal negotiated by the European Union, the U.S., and Russia. Imagine Washington’s view of a Moscow-supported coup in Mexico, followed by an influx of Russian weapons and trainers.
In a memorandum to the recent NATO meetings in Warsaw, the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity argued “There is not one scintilla of evidence of any Russian plan to annex Crimea before the coup in Kiev and coup leaders began talking about joining NATO. If senior NATO leaders continue to be unable or unwilling to distinguish between cause and effect, increasing tension is inevitable with potentially disastrous results.”
The organization of former intelligence analysts also sharply condemned the NATO war games. “We shake our heads in disbelief when we see Western leaders seemingly oblivious to what it means to the Russians to witness exercises on a scale not seen since Hitler’s army launched ‘Unternehumen Barbarossa’ 75 years ago, leaving 25 million Soviet citizens dead.”
While the NATO meetings in Warsaw agreed to continue economic sanctions aimed at Russia for another six months and to station four battalions of troops in Poland and the Baltic states— separate U.S. forces will be deployed in Bulgaria and Poland  —there was an undercurrent of dissent. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for deescalating the tensions with Russia and for considering Russian President Vladimir Putin a partner not an enemy.
Greece was not alone. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeler called NATO maneuvers on the Russian border “warmongering” and “saber rattling.” French President Francois Hollande said Putin should be considered a “partner,” not a “threat,” and France tried to reduce the number of troops being deployed in the Baltic and Poland. Italy has been increasingly critical of the sanctions.
Rather than recognizing the growing discomfort of a number of NATO allies and that beefing up forces on Russia’s borders might be destabilizing, U.S. Sec. of State John Kerry recently inked defense agreements with Georgia and Ukraine.
After disappearing from the radar for several decades, nukes are back, and the decision to modernize the U.S. arsenal will almost certainly kick off a nuclear arms race with Russia and China.  Russia is already replacing its current ICBM force with the more powerful and long range “Sarmat” ICBM, and China is loading its ICBM with multiple warheads.
Add to this volatile mixture military maneuvers and a deliberately opaque policy in regards to the use of nuclear weapons, and it is no wonder that Perry thinks that the chances of some catastrophe is a growing possibility.