Brazil’s Bolsonaro escalates coup threats as ruling class pushes “back-to-work” orders

Miguel Andrade

As ever more ominous reports emerge from across Brazil of the collapse of health systems and an increased death toll due to the uncontrolled spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, last weekend saw two days of fascist marches denouncing the partial economic shutdowns decreed by governors and mayors and calling for an immediate return to normal economic activities.

Brazil currently has more than 42,000 confirmed cases and 2,700 deaths, but authorities admit the real number of cases is up to 15 times higher than the official count, and that thousands of people have died with symptoms of COVID-19 but were never tested. Images of rows of fresh graves dug in São Paulo and videos of convoys of hearses heading to cemeteries have already circulated in the international media.

Nurses block street in protest against unsafe conditions in Belém (WhatsApp)

On Saturday, large Brazilian cities such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre saw convoys of hundreds of upper-middle-class demonstrators hypocritically calling for the economy to be “reopened” from safely inside their cars, only to be heckled and pelted with eggs when they drove through working class neighborhoods. On Sunday, Brazilian Army Day, fascist demonstrators gathered in front of the Army headquarters in the capital Brasília to demand that Bolsonaro shut down Congress and the Supreme Court for supporting the partial economic shutdowns decreed by governors and mayors.

They once again called for the revival of “AI-5”—i.e., “Institutional Act number 5”—a 1968 decree by the 1964-1985 military dictatorship that outlawed opposition, suspended habeas corpus and legalized political kidnappings, torture and executions.

Facing opposition from Congress, state governors and the Supreme Court against his attempt to override the partial economic shutdowns, Bolsonaro has charged that the Congress is attempting to provoke an economic crisis in order to force him out. On Sunday, he ranted before the demonstrators that “we don’t want to negotiate anything,” and that politicians “should understand they are subject to the will of the people” to reopen the economy, adding that “now the people should be in power.”

For over a year, fascist movements have used calls for the revival of the vicious methods of the former dictatorship to mobilize the most violent and disoriented layers of Brazilian society in favor of the removal of any restraint to capitalist profit-making and alignment with US imperialism. Now, such forces have been mobilized to denounce the partial economic shutdowns decreed by governors and mayors across the country as an intolerable obstacle to crisis-ridden Brazilian capitalism.

Even before the pandemic, Brazil had already faced five years of economic crisis due to falling commodity prices and declining demand, along with decreased investments from its main economic partner, China. Now. It must rush to keep up with efforts of the imperialist powers to re-open their economies in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on its competitiveness. But in doing so, it faces growing working-class resistance.

Popular anger is fueled by the consensus among the ruling class, including its representatives within both Bolsonaro’s opposition among Brazil’s traditional right wing and the “left”, led by the Workers Party (PT), that nothing will be done to counter the catastrophic impact of the pandemic upon workers’ lives, health and living standards. All that is on offer is starvation aid to the most impoverished layers, equal to less than half their average incomes. Violent means are being prepared to counter social opposition.

Jair Bolsonaro (Wikipedia Commons)

Brazilian governors were quick to issue an open letter criticizing Bolsonaro’s participation in the fascist demonstration and declaring support for the House and Senate leaders “in face of the declarations by President Jair Bolsonaro regarding their attitude and offending the democratic principles that rule our nation.” This was followed on Monday with governors’ announcements of back-to-work directives, even as state health authorities warn that not one Brazilian state has managed to control the pandemic’s spread.

Both state officials and editorials in Brazil’s leading newspapers have denounced Bolsonaro’s speech at the rally, while in the same breath minimizing it as inconsequential. They have pointed to perfunctory statements by military personnel to claim that, except for Bolsonaro’s behavior, all the other political actors in the Brazilian establishment are defending democratic principles.

This attitude was summed up yesterday in the editorial of O Estado de S. Paulo, which regularly features the writings of Brazilian military officials in its opinion pages: “It is comforting to realize, however, that, this time, authorities from every institution in the Republic reacted strongly against another offense to democracy by Bolsonaro and his followers.”

Such a statement is wishful thinking at best. O Estado de S. Paulo was referring to reports of frantic closed-door Sunday meetings between congressional, Supreme Court and military leaders that reportedly resulted in a Monday statement by the Defense Ministry that the Armed Forces “work to maintain peace and stability in the country, always obeying the Constitution.” The reality is, however, that the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed an intense crisis within the ruling class over how to defuse the crisis and threatens to provoke a constitutional breakdown.

These developments come barely days after the dismissal of Brazil’s health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, last Thursday. Mandetta had been universally praised by bourgeois political parties and editorial boards for publicly criticizing Bolsonaro’s photo-ops with crowds of supporters as countering social distancing recommendations. In the crisis leading up to his dismissal, the unanimous prediction of congressional officials and media pundits was that Mandetta would be kept on the job by the “adults in the room”—i.e., the military in Bolsonaro’s cabinet, including his chief of staff, Gen. Water Braga Netto, and his vice president, Gen. Hamilton Mourão. They could be counted upon, it was claimed, to keep Bolsonaro in check.

In fact, Bolsonaro’s appearance at the fascist rally Sunday for the “reopening of the economy” expressed his confidence that the ruling class will close ranks behind his extreme-right policies.

Bolsonaro has for a month put pressure on governors to reopen local economies, reaching the point of requisitioning health equipment production from all national manufacturers, without a timetable for their distribution, forcing governors to engage in direct negotiations with Chinese companies. Now, the Brazilian Internal Revenue Service has opened an investigation against one of the governors, Maranhão state’s Flávio Dino, from the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), for bypassing both the federal government and US imperialism in bringing ventilators from China through Ethiopia.

Only last week, Bolsonaro’s congressional base succeeded in stalling a bill providing states compensation for the drop in sales tax collections, with Economy Minister Paulo Guedes declaring it would provide a “malign encouragement” to governors to extend the shutdowns against the federal government’s will.

Governors, including in the opposition-held impoverished Northeast, previously adopted a tactical criticism of Bolsonaro’s bluntness in stating that workers must return to work and confront infection and death from the coronavirus or starve. Now, they are closing ranks behind the back-to-work orders, while simultaneously adopting Bolsonaro’s reckless promotion, without scientific backing, of hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19.

In the country’s epicenter of the pandemic, São Paulo, with more than 14,000 confirmed cases, 1,000 deaths and thousands of unprocessed exams, retail is set to be reopened on May 11, before what the government itself predicts will be the “peak” of the pandemic.

The Army has already admitted that it is searching for mass burial sites in the country’s second-wealthiest city, Rio de Janeiro, while northern states such as Pernambuco, Ceará and Amazonas have declared that their health care systems are already in a state of collapse.

As in every other capitalist country, the COVID-19 pandemic is exposing and deepening the crisis of Brazilian capitalism and laying bare the bankruptcy of all factions of the ruling class, which is unable to formulate any alternative to the unfolding social catastrophe. This includes the social democratic and pseudo-leftist formations claiming to speak for workers, represented in Brazil by the PT and its petty-bourgeois backer, the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL).

Both are terrified of the consequences of breaking ranks with the ruling class and of encouraging, even if accidentally, any social opposition to Bolsonaro’s government. PSOL President Juliano Medeiros reacted to growing public indignation over Bolsonaro’s authoritarian campaign by cynically writing in the pro-PT Fórum that “for the president to be removed, it is necessary for the center-right to break with the government.”

He admitted that “when Bolsonaro crosses the line as he did yesterday, those against it become desperate for some initiative. It is normal. On social media the left leaders become the target of all kinds of demands, ‘enough with censure motions’ some say, ‘do something’ demand others,” only to conclude: “but the center parties also need to be addressed. The ball is not in our court, but in theirs. Indignation must be channeled to demands to the presidents of the House and Senate.”

India: Modi government moves to “reopen” economy as virus cases surge

Wasantha Rupasinghe & Keith Jones

Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu supremacist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), India’s central government is encouraging state governments and district authorities in wide swathes of the country to begin “reopening” the economy, even as COVID-19 cases and deaths surge.

Yesterday, Indian authorities reported 1,577 new COVID-19 cases, the largest increase to date, and 47 additional deaths. This brings the official tallies to 18,601 cases and 595 deaths.

Maharashtra continues to be the hardest hit state, with 4,666 cases and 232 deaths. With more than three thousand COVID-19 cases, Mumbai, India’s commercial capital and second largest city, accounts for almost two-thirds of Maharashtra’s novel coronavirus infections.

Alarmingly, authorities appear to be failing in their efforts to stop the spread of the disease in Dharavi, a Mumbai slum. With 700,000 people living in an area little more than 2 kilometres square, Dharavi is one of the most densely populated places on the planet. Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Dharavi now exceed 175, including 11 deaths.

India is ostensibly under nationwide lockdown until May 3. But in extending the original 21-day shutdown order for a further 19 days on April 14, Modi, egged on by big business, announced that outside of areas deemed coronavirus “red zones” many industries would be allowed and encouraged to reopen starting Monday this week.

Sectors greenlighted for reopening include manufacturing, especially facilities located in Special Economic Zones and Export Oriented Units, tea, coffee and rubber plantations, oil and gas production, and construction. With the complicity of the political establishment, Indian employers violate the country’s lax occupational health and safety regulations virtually at will, but the authorities are claiming companies can be trusted to enforce “social distancing.”

Under the BJP government’s reopening guidelines, public work projects under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee (MNREG) can also resume with the approval of local authorities. The routinely oversubscribed MNREG is supposed to provide 100 days of menial, minimum-wage work per year to one member of every rural household that wants it.

Modi, the BJP government and the corporate media have cynically sought to justify their push for a premature return to work by pointing to the desperate plight of the hundreds of millions of workers and toilers whom the lockdown has deprived of their jobs and any income.

Criminally, Modi imposed the lockdown with less than four hours warning, and without making any provision for the large majority of Indian workers who are dependent on “informal sector,” subsistence day-labour jobs. While the government subsequently threw together a package of “relief” measures, this assistance amounts to starvation rations. Moreover, only a fraction of the newly jobless have been able to access it.

Underlining that it views India’s workers and toilers as dispensable, the BJP government has added not a single additional rupee to this “relief,” even as it has extended the lockdown to 40 days.

The BJP government’s reopening plan is as recklessly improvised as its lockdown.

For starters, Indian authorities have no idea as to the true extent of the contagion, since, from the outset, they have rationed tests. To date, in a country of 1.37 billion people less than 450,000 tests have been administered.

Given the lack of testing, the government’s claims to be able to distinguish COVID-19 “Green” and “Yellow” zones, where there is reputedly “minimum risk” of the virus and businesses and industries can restart, from “hot spots” or “Red” zones, where it claims the lockdown must remain in full force, are a cruel fraud.

Second, India manifestly lacks the capacity to conduct mass-testing and contact-tracing and its health care system is in shambles. For decades, India’s government, whether led by the Congress Party or the BJP, has invested 1.5 percent of GDP or less in health care.

Under these conditions, Modi’s push to reopen India’s economy so that big business can resume its sweatshop exploitation of the working class threatens to magnify the ruinous impact of the highly contagious and lethal novel coronavirus many times over.

The government’s ill-prepared lockdown and miserly relief have already caused immense hardship, especially for the poorest sections of the working class, the migrant workers and other day labourers.

Left by the government to fend for themselves, millions of migrant workers who had been employed in Delhi, Mumbai and other major centres sought to return on foot to their native villages. While some succeeded, the vast majority were intercepted along the way and forced into makeshift internal refugee camps, after the government suddenly realized its impromptu lockdown had precipitated a mass migration that threatened to spread the coronavirus across rural India.

Conditions in these camps, which the authorities have largely left to NGOs and charities to organise and provision, are generally appalling. Common complaints include: lack of food and water, overcrowding, poor sanitation, mosquitoes and police harassment. Everywhere workers, angry at their effective detention by the state, have one question on their lips, “Why can’t we be sent to our villages?”

The reports from the poorer districts of Delhi and other major Indian cities are no less harrowing. On April 18, the News18 website published a report titled, “‘Should we watch them die of hunger?’ These new mothers can’t even breastfeed their babies due to lockdown.” It documented how new mothers in a poor district of Gurgaon, an industrial city on the outskirts of Delhi, are unable to feed their children because their husbands are without work and income. Neetu, whose husband has been unable to practice his trade as a cobbler, told News18 she had not had a full meal since she gave birth to her fourth child on April 7. “Some medicines had also been prescribed,” she added, “but I don’t think I’ve had any. I feel dizzy mostly and weak always. My child is also weak.”

These conditions are provoking growing opposition and have led to clashes between poor workers and police in Mumbai, Surat and other cities.

Meanwhile, due to a lack of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), hundreds of doctors, nurses, and other medical staff have become infected with COVID-19.

On Tuesday, a coronavirus positive doctor who was being treated at Teerthanker Mahaveer University (TMU) medical college in Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh died.

In Mumbai, more than 200 medical personal have been infected and the city’s Central Wockhardt Hospital has been closed for two weeks due to a large coronavirus outbreak among the staff.

Earlier this week, Swati Rane, a frontline healthcare worker and vice president of the Clinical Nursing Research Society, told Al Jazeera the situation in the city’s hospitals is chaotic. She explained that currently the main the source of COVID-19 infections among medical staff is not COVID-19 wards, but other wards, operation theatres, and emergency departments where the staff are being denied PPE. ‘They are at risk,” said Rane, “as they do not even wear N-95 masks, which are important. If complete PPE is not possible, at least give them masks, gloves and gowns."

Across India state authorities have responded to a flood of complaints from doctors and other medical staff over the lack of PPE with threats of reprisals and repression.

Last Saturday, The Wire published an open letter from more than two dozen doctors and public health activists that called for PPE for all medical staff, food security for all Indians and the maintenance of public transport as an essential service to ensure access to health care for those living in rural and remote areas.

The letter also opposed the attempts of the BJP government, its Hindu right allies, and much of the corporate media to scapegoat Muslims for the spread of the pandemic. “This communalization of the pandemic, particularly targeting Muslims will prevent us,” declared the open letter, “from using this opportunity to identify gaps in our public health system and put pressure on the government to plug these gaps so that we are much more prepared for any future outbreak. Blaming one community while not holding the government accountable serves no purpose.”

Israel: Gantz agrees to national emergency government with Netanyahu

Jean Shaoul

On Monday, after weeks of stalled talks, Bennie Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White bloc, signed up to a “national emergency government” headed by indicted criminal Benjamin Netanyahu.

The decision of the former Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff to join the xenophobic, ultra-nationalistic and expansionist government Netanyahu has dominated for the last 11 years, signifies that the dictatorial regime imposed for decades on the Palestinian working class will now be extended to the Israeli working class.

Far from protecting the population from the devastating health and economic effects of the deadly coronavirus that has caused a catastrophic collapse of Israel’s economy—the new government’s ostensible brief—its real purpose is to protect the wealth of Israel’s corporate and financial elite, suppress social unrest in Israel and Palestine and drive down wages and living conditions in an untrammelled pursuit of profit.

Gantz was upfront about the undemocratic nature of the deal, saying, “We have prevented a fourth election.” Despite campaigning in three inconclusive general elections in less than a year, vowing never to serve under him and pledging to preserve the rule of law, Gantz’s unity deal keeps Netanyahu in power and shields him from justice, while busting up his own coalition bloc.

The new unity government is set to last three years, with Netanyahu serving as premier and Gantz as defence minister and deputy prime minister for 18 months, at which point Gantz will become prime minister and Netanyahu his deputy.

The coalition will introduce a law enabling Netanyahu to serve as deputy prime minister despite being charged, which means that Netanyahu, who is due to stand trial on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust next month, will continue to occupy leading positions and an official residence even as he conducts his legal defence. He will be able to veto any senior judicial nomination—including attorney-general—which gives him the power to control the judiciary. Gantz has also agreed that if the Supreme Court disqualifies Netanyahu from serving as prime minister or as deputy prime minister because of the charges against him, new elections will be held, under conditions where his own bloc has split.

Netanyahu has bought the support of his coalition partners by enlarging the cabinet to 36, giving equal seats to his own Likud-aligned bloc and what remains of Gantz’s Blue and White bloc, now dubbed the White bloc.

Netanyahu has agreed to give the justice portfolio to Avi Nissenkorn from Gantz’s party. Gabi Ashkenazi, another former IDF chief of staff, will become foreign minister. This means that the two external posts, foreign and defence affairs, go to military men, who are deemed more politically acceptable to Israel’s backers in the US and European capitals.

Such is the right-wing nature of Gantz’s bloc that Orli Levy-Abekasis, who ran on a joint ticket with the so-called left parties Meretz and Labour, will serve as a Likud minister, while Labour Party leader Amir Peretz will become the Economy Minister and Itzik Shmuli, one of the leaders of the 2011 anti-government protests, taking over the welfare portfolio.

Netanyahu and Gantz will jointly head a special “coronavirus-emergency forum.” One of Gantz’s 18 cabinet seats will go to an Arab minister (not party member).

In an important concession to Netanyahu’s fascistic partners, Gantz has agreed to legislation to be introduced by July authorizing Israeli’s sovereignty and annexation of Palestinian land it has illegally occupied since the 1967 war, following US President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century.”

Gantz’s capitulation to Netanyahu followed his inability to form a government under his own leadership without the support of the third largest party, the Arab Joint List, an anathema to Israel’s political establishment and his potential allies, who whipped up a ferocious media campaign, branding the Arab legislators as “terrorists in suits.” New to politics and differing little politically from Netanyahu, his shift was always in the cards.

His move, signaled a month ago, split the Blue and White bloc, with Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid faction and Moshe Ya’alon of the Telem faction, both of whom have served in Netanyahu’s governments, refusing to join a national emergency government.

This political chicanery takes place amidst the most severe economic crisis Israel has ever faced. With a healthcare system ravaged by decades of privatization and cuts and in no position to cope with the pandemic, Netanyahu moved early to impose stay at home orders, shutter schools, universities and non-essential business and close its borders. He offered loans and grants to businesses.

As of April 21, there are nearly 14,000 confirmed cases and 181 deaths, although these are unlikely to be the full toll. As cases mounted among the ultra-orthodox, whose leaders refused to adhere to the social distancing restrictions, on April 2, the government declared Bnei Brak and several ultra-orthodox neighbourhoods in Jerusalem “restricted zones.”

In anticipation of social unrest, Netanyahu has authorised widespread surveillance powers—routinely used against the Palestinians in the occupied territories—to trace via their cell phones Israeli citizens, who have been in contact with coronavirus patients. Such powers for Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic spy agency, have now become part and parcel of the state’s surveillance apparatus.

The closures have taken a devastating toll on social and economic life, all but killing Israel’s vital tourism and hospitality sector and leading El Al Airlines to seek government aid. Some 26 percent of workers are now jobless, up from 3.6 percent in February. Nearly 40 percent of Tel Aviv’s tenants (46 percent of all the city’s residents rent their home) are unable to pay next month’s rent, with another 30 percent saying that within a few months they too will not be able to pay.

On Sunday, in the latest of several similar protests, hundreds of self-employed workers demonstrated outside the Knesset and in several locations throughout the country, protesting the lack of social assistance from the government. One furious protestor told Channel 12 news: “We voted for you. You were chosen as one who knows how to manage wars. In the coronavirus war you have failed! …You need to get up and get out!”

On the same day in Tel Aviv, several thousand people wearing face masks and waving black flags rallied in Tel Aviv under the banner of “Save the Democracy,” calling on Blue and White not to join Netanyahu’s coalition government. One placard read, “Let democracy win.” Some had written “Minister of Crime” on their masks, in reference to Netanyahu’s trial for corruption.

The situation is even more devastating in the occupied Palestinian territories, where, as of Monday, there were 449 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and three deaths. The Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the West Bank with around 200 intensive care beds with ventilators, has estimated it needs $120 million in aid to cope with the coronavirus. Gaza, whose resources have been decimated by Israel’s 13-year-long siege, has only 87 adult intensive care beds with ventilators for its 2 million people.

Official unemployment is at least 17 percent in the West Bank and 47 percent in Gaza, where three quarters of the population are already dependent upon humanitarian aid. Even if the closures contain the spread of the pandemic, the economic impact is set to cause mass starvation.

As COVID-19 deaths pass 17,000, UK corporations scramble for bailout funds

Robert Stevens

The official number of deaths in Britain due to COVID-19 is heading towards 20,000. A further 873 fatalities were announced yesterday, taking the official total to 17,337.

This is just those who have died in hospital and does not include those who have died in residential care homes or at home. Due to the delay in recording and registering deaths of mainly elderly people, the latest figures relating to deaths outside hospital only go to April 10.

In England and Wales, the number of COVID-19 fatalities in care homes more than quadrupled in a week, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Deaths rose to 1,043—up from 217 the previous week. These are significant underestimations, with various care organisations already reporting up to 7,500 COVID-19 related deaths in care homes.

On Wednesday, the Financial Times published its own analysis of the ONS data and based on extrapolations concluded that "a conservative estimate" showed that the "coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK." It added, "The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus."

The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK (graphic credit: Financial Times)

The FT noted, "The ONS data also showed that deaths at home and in care homes had also jumped sharply during the pandemic. In the week ending April 10, deaths in care homes reached 4,927, almost double the figure of 2,471 a month earlier."

The newspaper concluded, "As 24 per cent of deaths normally occur in care homes in the UK, the analysis suggests that just under 11,000 more people than normal have died in residential care since the start of the outbreak."

Many coronavirus linked-deaths have occurred outside hospitals (graphic credit: Financial Times)

The ONS figures showed that 18,516 total deaths were registered just in the week to April 10. The impact of the pandemic can be seen as these fatalities were 75 percent above normal for England and Wales and the highest level for more than 20 years. During the same week, the average number of deaths over the last five years was 10,520. 

The unprecedented spike in weekly death registrations (graphic credit: Financial Times)

Despite the widely cited claim from one Oxford University scientist that the coronavirus peaked on April 8, hundreds continue to die every day. On just two days in the last week did coronavirus deaths in the UK not top 800.

The social crisis triggered by the coronavirus crisis is worsening daily. On Tuesday, it was reported that the number of people applying for the punitive Universal Credit benefit had shot up by 1.8 million in just the six weeks to April 12. According to a poll by the Citizens Advice charity, a fifth of people in Britain had already applied for welfare benefits or were expected to do so as a result of the virus. Millions are out of a job as companies laid them off temporarily or permanently as the lockdown began on March 23. The Financial Times reported that the Department for Work and Pensions was forced to make “513,000 advance payments to those in urgent need of money in the four-week period to April 12.”

Unemployment is expected to surge further with the FT noting KPMG chief economist Yael Selfin stating that as more than a third of all UK jobs were in sectors highly affected by the lockdown, unemployment could rise close to 9 percent.

The Resolution Foundation said that a six-month lockdown could see unemployment top 5 million in 2021 as the government phases out the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS).

CJRS was announced nearly a month ago by Tory Chancellor Rishi Sunak and represents a staggering bailout for the corporations worth hundreds of billions. It allows firms to furlough employees with the government paying cash grants of 80 percent of their wages up to a maximum of £2,500, initially for three months.

Last Friday, as the government announced that the lockdown would last at least another three weeks, Sunak announced that the CJRS would be extended until June.

On Monday, the scheme officially opened for companies to make claims. On the first day more than 140,000 firms applied, 67,000 claims within half an hour of it going live.

It is estimated that the number of workers employed by companies who have applied so far is more than 1 million.

More companies than the government forecast have already applied for a bailout. According to the Resolution Foundation, up to 8 million workers could be furloughed over the coming weeks. Other estimates are that 11 million workers (a third of the entire workforce) will eventually be moved into the scheme—with big businesses shoveled up to £60 billion in the process.

With millions of workers laid off and their immediate future insecure, many will be forced into permanent unemployment. Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott pointed to an analysis to be published this week by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. “They estimate that the US unemployment rate will have risen almost five-fold in April to 20 percent ... On the assumption that furloughed workers are in reality unemployed, Blanchflower and Bell predict unemployment in the UK will rise by 5 million to more than 6 million by the end of May. If they are right, this would give the UK a jobless rate similar to that of the US—about 20 percent.”

Blanchflower and Bell are correct in their assessment, says Elliot, that “furloughed workers are really an army of the hidden unemployed, and they will become a lot more visible if during the second half of this year, the government ends the wage subsidies but the economy does not snap back as quickly as ministers hope.”

Wages of workers on the scheme are set to be continually slashed. The Sunday Telegraph offered a glimpse of the discussions taking place in ruling circles to pile the debt burden on the working class, editorialising, “One suggestion is to extend the furlough into the autumn but cover only 50 percent of salaries to limit costs.” Further social opposition could be sparked, noted the newspaper with “Ben Broadbent, the Bank of England’s deputy governor” warning that “even when the lockdown is eased there will be substantial popular resistance to returning to normal activity.”

Everything is being done to satisfy the profit lust of the corporations. John Lewis furloughed its entire 14,000 department store staff under the government’s scheme, and will also profit to the tune of £135 million this year due to the business rates holiday—part of an additional £22 billion “coronavirus boost” for the corporations.

Virgin Airlines’ multi-billionaire tax exile Richard Branson previously called for UK aviation companies to receive a £7.5 billion bailout from the state. He is now preparing the final touches for Virgin’s raid on the public purse of around £500 million. Last month, Branson lost no time in instructing Virgin Airlines staff to take eight weeks of unpaid leave. Branson claimed this week that his airline faced collapse: “The reality of this unprecedented crisis is that many airlines around the world need government support and many have already received it.”

Branson, with a personal fortune of over £4 billion, owns a 51 percent stake in Virgin Airlines. His state bailout extortion has elicited anger from Virgin workers and among the working class in general. Over 95 percent of people replied “No” to a Twitter poll asking, “Should the UK government give him [Branson] the £500 million bailout he wants?”

One of the many Twitter users denouncing Branson commented, “I’m stunned by the brass neck of this man. I suppose you don’t make it to £4.7 billion personal wealth without being a sociopath. I don’t know if he is, but to have the cheek to ask for £500 million in public funds when you’ve avoided tax for 14 years...”

Another said, “Nurses are starting shifts and they are down to their last set of PPE [personal protective equipment]. Richard Branson is down to his last private Caribbean island. Difficult to know where to spend that £500 million isn’t it [?]”

Germany: Opening Berlin schools risks the lives of teachers, pupils and their families

Carola Kleinert & Andy Niklaus

On Wednesday, federal and state governments decided to gradually “relax” the current restrictions introduced to combat the coronavirus pandemic. “We must learn to live with the pandemic,” Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed. This includes the gradual opening of schools, which are to progressively resume operations from May 4.

Shortly after Merkel’s press conference, it became known that the gradual opening of schools will indeed begin as early as this week. Nationwide, those graduating high school will have to take their exams starting next week. Students in the tenth grade will have to start attending schools as of April 27. Starting May 4, sixth grade students will have to return.

At the same time, the social distancing and hygiene rules and the general ban on contact will remain in force. The young people, who are only allowed to travel in pairs or only as part of their families, must return to schools that had already come under harsh criticism before the coronavirus crisis because of their dilapidation, the uncleanness of their sanitary facilities and the lack of hygiene facilities and hot water.

While the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), under state premier Armin Laschet (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) and Education Minister Yvonne Gebauer (Free Democratic Party, FDP), has already come under criticism on social media for its ruthless policies against students, resistance is also forming in Berlin against the state executive’s policy of opening up the city.

Berlin’s Senator for Education, Youth and Science Sandra Scheeres (Social Democratic Party, SPD), who had already proven her anti-social attitude towards working people and their children by closing schools and day-care centres far too late in the pandemic, suggested days ago that the schools should be quickly opened again.

It is not even clear whether teachers and pupils will be equipped with protective masks. Will a compulsory test be introduced to identify infected students or teachers? What will happen to pupils and young people from households with infected family members who belong to the risk groups? Are they really allowed to stay at home, and what happens to their final grades?

What about the public transport that students will have to use? Busses and trains are themselves vectors for spreading the virus. Finally, young people are faced with the question of how the enormous psychological pressure that has been weighing on them for weeks will be taken into account when assessing their examination results.

The level of protection standards that Scheeres has in mind can be seen from her assurances that—now—there should be soap everywhere!

Just as the Left Party, the SPD and the Greens at federal and state level agreed to all the rescue packages for the financial elite and corporations, they are now ruthlessly pushing for a lifting of measures to combat the pandemic.

The position is that the population should become accustomed to the idea that the pandemic is a “normal state” and that infection with and death from COVID-19 is “unavoidable.” NRW Education Minister Gebauer cynically declared, “There will ... be school communities that have to mourn the death of teachers, school directors or family members, which can sometimes have a lasting effect on school life.” In the opinion of those in power, workers and young people must simply accept this.

As the Sozialistische Gleichheitspartei (Socialist Equality Party) wrote in a statement on April 13, there is a “vicious class logic” behind these efforts. “Workers are treated as a kind of disposable product. Their deaths are regarded as a normal requirement for the generation of profit. Those who succumb to the virus can be replaced.”

The ignorance and cynicism of those with political responsibility is increasingly meeting with resistance from broad sections of the population.

For example, Kristine, a nurse, posted on Twitter angrily and stunned, “So I’m sending my three children back to 3 different schools together with thousands of other students? Then I go to the hospital to work and then I go to the seven elderly people who must still be cared for. Ingenious.”

Many students, like Noel, say they do not want to go to school until things improve, “I don’t want to be to blame for my mother being in intensive care soon.”

Sherly noted, “My beloved father works in the hospital and, even as someone at risk himself, helps with the breathing of Covid-19 patients for hours every day under strict safety measures. And when I come home from school, I’m supposed to bring it home? No, thanks.”

Another student tweeted, “I think this is all so stupid. We are like test subjects. Sure, education is precious. But human life is priceless.”

Stefan Hermanns wrote that he would not send his daughter to school, but wanted to be at school himself on Monday morning to check the hygiene rules. “If it depends on the hygienic conditions whether schools open again, there will be no classes in Berlin for the next five years,” Hermanns said.

With the hashtag #prosecuteScheeres, Sabine tweeted about hygiene in Berlin schools: “Now let’s be honest, anyone who talks about maintainable hygiene standards in schools has not seen a normal school from the inside for a long time.”

Larissa Selda asked indignantly, “What’s the point of staying home if I’m going to get infected anyway because I must go outside?” She demanded, “I want the health of all citizens to be prioritised and no exams, until there is a solution that will limit any new infections by far.”

The connection between the rush to open up the schools and the class issues is obvious to many.

Chris tweeted, “When politicians seriously open up schools & make people take their final exams, it just shows sooo blatantly that business is more important to them than human lives”.

Simone Buchholz posted, “Nobody knows how the ailing schools are going to cope with the hygiene thing, but everyone knows who will pay for it: parents/mothers.”

Dennis commented, “14 days ago: ‘We are not relevant & of course we are also concerned about your health, we are closing down & bringing in short-time work’. Hardly any relaxation, today they call: ‘From Monday on we’ll be working full double shifts again’. Honestly, we’re all just puppets!”

In his tweet, Kurt Meier drew attention to the class question and the drastic redistribution of wealth from the bottom to the top of society that has been going on for decades: “What schools in Germany have long been known for: small classes, good supervision, cleanliness and good hygiene, ... oh, those were the private schools where the grandchildren of the #Leopoldina [National Academy of Science] people are.”

Rebel Heart wrote, “Education and keeping the economy running are unfortunately way more important to our politicians than health or human life.”

Johann van de Bron from North Rhine-Westphalia explained, “In the last few days, we have heard from teachers, scientists, parents, bus drivers, pupils, etc. that hygiene measures can’t be maintained in school! And that is also my assessment. If Laschet decides to #openschools, then we get an uncontrolled infection. NRW has 2.5 million school pupils. Even if only 4-5 years are sent back to school, this is surely more than half a million children and young people in schools, on the way to school, on playgrounds ...”.

In order to protect the health and lives of students and teachers, the working class must take up the struggle for a socialist programme. The ruling class and its stooges in the political establishment ruthlessly pose the interests of making a profit against the interests of the working class. This has been mercilessly demonstrated by the pandemic.

Erdogan opposes lockdown as Turkey’s COVID-19 pandemic overtakes China

Ulas Atesci

Overtaking China and Iran in terms of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, at 90,000, Turkey has emerged as the country in Asia with the most cases. Workers are the hardest hit layer in society, as the government’s priority, from the beginning, has been to keep workers in non-essential industries at work to keep production, exports and profits high.

The government is thrusting aside repeated warnings from the Turkish Medical Association (TTB), which has demanded once again a stop to all production in uncritical sectors with full payment to contain infections across the country. It is siding entirely with the banks’ profit interests even as COVID-19 cases surge in the workplaces.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has begun only weekend curfews in the 30 largest cities and Zonguldak since April 11, also calling a four-day lockdown from April 23 to 26, these measures remain ineffective. Medical specialists have warned that limited lockdowns lead populations to go out more intensely immediately afterwards. Many factories and workplaces in uncritical sectors—metal, construction, shipyard and textile—remain open thanks to special dispensations.

On NTV, Erdoğan’s spokesperson, İbrahim Kalın, explained the government’s refusal of a longer lockdown: “Its cost to the economy would be much heavier.” That is, countless thousands of lives of workers can be sacrificed to protect the interests of the capitalist ruling class amid an unprecedented pandemic crisis.

The Health and Safety Labour Watch (İSİG) published a report last Friday on COVID-19 infections in workplaces in Turkey from March 11 to April 10. It examined 855 COVID-19 positive cases in at least 159 different workplaces; of these, at least 52 have died. The report also stated that workers in at least 30 different workplaces across the country went on wildcat strikes during this period due to positive cases and lack of necessary safety measures in the workplaces—as is the case all over the world.

According to another report by the Istanbul Workers’ Trade Unions Platform, as of April 17 there are over 2,200 positive cases among workers in Istanbul; at least 28 have died of COVID-19.

The Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions (DİSK) also published a report on the outbreak among its members. It found that by April 17, 2.8 per thousand DİSK members had fallen ill, compared to 0.9 per thousand in the Turkish population overall. At least 378 DİSK members are positive; four have died. Hasan Oğuz (33), a construction worker and workplace representative at Galataport site in Istanbul, was one of them.

Though it has approximately 135,000 members, DİSK has admitted that it stopped production in only 11 workplaces with over 1,200 workers across Turkey—though it declared on March 30 that in 48 hours it might invoke the constitutional right to not work in unsafe conditions, if the government acts to ensure safe conditions.

Whatever their posturing, DİSK and other union confederations are deeply implicated in the collaboration between the government, big business and trade unions. This is a trap for the working class. The critical question for workers in factories, workplaces and neighbourhoods is building independent rank-and-file committees to protect themselves and oppose not only the pandemic, but the government as well.

While the Turkish Health Ministry reported a first case on March 11, the total number of cases has surpassed 90,000 as of April 20, with more than 2,000 in the official death toll. Ten days before, as of April 10, the total number of cases was 45,000 with about 1,000 deaths.

Although state officials continue to boast of Turkey’s relatively low COVID-19 death rate, it is widely believed that it is a serious underestimation. The TTB accused the Health Ministry of not using COVID-19 codes proposed by the World Health Organization to calculate the death toll.

The World Socialist Web Site had previously cited demographic research, showing that there are about 1,500 excess deaths for Istanbul between March 11 and April 7 compared with the same period in previous years. The New York Times has also reported that the “true death toll may be much higher” in Turkey, as Istanbul “alone recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 to April 12, based on weekly averages from the last two years.”

Moreover, the situation among health care workers is getting worse. The Istanbul Medical Chamber (ITO) said on Monday, “the number of health care workers infected has approached 2,000,” adding that nine had died in Istanbul. It criticized the lack of face masks. Many people and health care workers still are unable to obtain masks. The Trade Union of Public Employees in Health and Social Services (SES) said on Tuesday, “We estimate that there are more than 8,000 positive-diagnosed health workers across the country.”

Dr. Mustafa Tamur, an official from The Family Physicians Association in Istanbul, said on Sunday: “To date, no single item or protective clothing or pair of glasses have been provided to any family physician in Istanbul,” adding that there are about 200 COVID-19 cases among family physicians in the city.

Though there are officially more than 4,000 new cases and at least 120 new deaths every day in Turkey, the government and media are trying to put a brave face on things, amid an escalating back-to-work campaign by governments internationally.

After Health Minister Fahrettin Koca claimed last Tuesday that they had brought the pandemic’s spread across Turkey under control, on Monday Erdoğan said he expects a return to normal at the end of May: “Our goal is to most meticulously implement measures and reduce the pandemic procession to levels that would allow for the normalisation of our country after the Ramadan holidays.”

Workers are the worst affected section of the population, not only in terms of infections and deaths but also due to immediate implications of the pandemic.

In Al-Monitor on April 9, economist Mustafa Sönmez calculated the number of unemployed workers in Turkey has risen to 7.5 million, with a nearly 3 million surge in this period. He predicted it could reach 10 million. About 270,000 mostly small companies employing more than 3 million workers have applied for unemployment benefits. Moreover, a new law allows employers to put workers on unpaid leave for up to six months on just 39 lira ($6) daily.

While class divisions are increasingly being exposed and anger among workers to the government response is mounting, Erdoğan’s main priority is to contain not COVID-19, but the threat from below. Erdoğan listed “public order” as one of his government’s key priorities during the pandemic. In fact, the pandemic has clearly shown that a revolutionary struggle by the working class to replace the existing order with socialism is the only way to protect millions and provide the most essential needs for all.

Oil price plunge continues

Nick Beams

Oil prices and oil futures continued to fall sharply yesterday following Monday’s chaos, which saw contracts on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fall to as low as -$40 a barrel, meaning that sellers were willing to pay buyers to take them off their hands.

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to below $20 a barrel for the first time in 18 years as the slide in futures contracts for WTI continued. Even as WTI futures contracts for May plunged into negative territory on Monday, June futures contracts remained above $20.

Yesterday they fell to as low as $6.50 at one point, before rising to $11.57 at the end of the day—a drop of 43 percent.

A further decline seems almost certain. According to Louise Dickson, an analyst at Rystad Energy: “The contagion has spilled over to WTI June 2020 deliveries, which could also be well on their way into the red as we move towards physical delivery dates.”

The head of commodities trading at the financial firm ING, Warren Patterson, told the Financial Times that storage next month “will be even more of an issue.” In the “absence of a meaningful demand recovery, negative prices could return for June.”

Analysts at Citi have said if the global storage worsens, the price of Brent “could chase WTI down to the bottom.”

The spot price for Brent crude dropped to as low as $17.51 per barrel yesterday before recovering to $19.33—a fall of 24 percent for the day.

Some commentators have dismissed Monday’s plunge as a “technical” glitch, a kind of “flash crash,” resulting from the rapid exhaustion of storage capacity at the main US facility in Cushing, Oklahoma. But as one writer in the Financial Times noted, “this looks like the financial market equivalent of arguing that coronavirus is ‘just like the flu’.”

There are increasing calls for some form of government bailout for the industry.

The co-head of oil trading at Tarfigura, a large exporter of American crude, told the New York Times: “We are worried that the currently disorderly market has adversely damaged the industry. In the short term some form of government assistance is likely needed because the price levels we are currently transacting at are unsustainable for US producers.”

US President Trump’s attempt to halt the price slide by having Russia and Saudi Arabia cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day is now rendered a dead letter. As a result, he has indicated that government bailout measures may be forthcoming.

Yesterday Trump tweeted that he had “instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future.”

Tens of thousands of jobs have already gone. The oil and gas industry axed 51,000 jobs in March, a reduction of 9 percent. A further 15,000 workers lost their jobs in ancillary services such as construction and the manufacture of oil drilling equipment.

This is just the beginning. The chief executive of an oil-field services company, Dan Eberhart, told Bloomberg that “a tidal wave of bankruptcies is about to hit the sector.”

Even before the pandemic hit, many oil-producing companies were facing growing problems because of the fall in oil prices due to the slowdown in the global economy in 2019 after a brief upturn the previous year.

Many smaller oil companies are expected to file for bankruptcy in the coming period, adding to instability in financial markets. According to a report in the New York Times, citing data from Moody’s, production companies have $86 billion in debt falling due between 2020 and 2024. Pipeline companies have debts of $123 billion they have to repay or service over the same period.

The so-called shale oil revolution, which has transformed America into the largest oil producer in the world, leading Trump to hail “American energy dominance” last year, was based on ultra-low interest rates and the expectation that prices would remain elevated.

This led to the issuing by oil producers of high-yield junk bonds to fund production. As a result, according to analysis from JP Morgan Chase, energy companies were the largest single issuers of junk bonds in 10 of the last 11 years. But since the fall in oil prices, starting in 2016, some 208 producers have filed for bankruptcy involving $121.7 billion in total debt.

The pandemic and the associated lockdowns have functioned as an accelerant to a process that was already underway.

Small companies are not the only ones affected. This week S&P Global Ratings cut the credit rating of Exxon Mobil, citing the impact on its cash flow caused by the plunge in oil prices. Earlier Moody’s had downgraded its rating of Occidental Petroleum, which took on $40 billion of debt as a result of a takeover battle for Anadarko last year.

Job cuts are taking place across the board, not least in so-called clean energy production. Last week BW Research issued a report that this sector—involving solar panel manufacturing and electric cars—had lost more than 106,000 jobs last month, with employment in energy-related industries falling by more than 303,000.

An article by Neil Irwin in the New York Times yesterday warned the COVID-19 crisis went far beyond the shortages of some consumer goods. It had delivered a “deflationary shock” to the economy that would “almost surely persist beyond the period of widespread lockdowns.”

The economic effects so far—the rise in jobless claims by 22 million in the past month, with more to come, the contraction in the airline industry, restaurants and auto production, and now the plunge in oil prices—had longer term implications.

They pointed to a “deflationary collapse—a glut of goods and services and consequently falling prices—that surpasses anything seen in most people’s lifetimes,” Irwin concluded.

Senate passes another bipartisan bailout for business

Barry Grey

On Tuesday, the US Senate passed another bipartisan bailout bill, whose benefits will once again go disproportionately to wealthy employers. The centerpiece of the bill is a new infusion of $310 billion of taxpayer money into the so-called “Paycheck Protection Program” (PPP), a provision of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act enacted at the end of March.

The PPP is supposedly aimed at aiding small businesses and preserving the jobs of their employees. In reality, the program is designed to make it difficult for mom-and-pop businesses to obtain relief, while funneling a substantial portion of the allotted funds to large enterprises with thousands of employees, and enriching Wall Street banks that make millions in processing fees and interest payments.

The new bill was passed by unanimous consent, with no Democratic senators rising to oppose it. It takes only one dissenting senator to block a unanimous consent vote and force a roll call vote. That would have disrupted the rush by the White House and both parties to enact the measure this week, since senators, currently dispersed around the country due to the pandemic, would have had to assemble in the Capitol.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had previously announced that she would hold a vote in the lower chamber either Wednesday or Thursday. President Trump tweeted his support for the bill on the eve of the Senate action and urged Republicans to vote for it.

The program extends low-interest loans backed by the federal Small Business Administration (SBA) and allows the loans to be forgiven if the recipients rehire furloughed or laid-off employees and devote 75 percent of the loans to payroll, utility or rental costs for a period of eight weeks. It was presented to the public as being open only to businesses with fewer than 500 workers and less than $2 billion in revenue.

However, after lobbying by restaurant and hotel chains, Congress agreed to the insertion of a provision making such companies eligible for PPP money, as long as none of their individual locations employed 500 people. As a result, multimillion- and billion-dollar chains such as Ruth’s Chris steakhouses, Shake Shack, Potbelly and J. Alexander were given priority by Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. They approved loans for large companies ranging from $15 to $20 million each, while hundreds of thousands of family-owned restaurants, beauty and barber shops, gas stations and small retail outlets were shut out.

The PPP was allotted $349 billion under the CARES Act, a small fraction of the trillions allocated by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to bail out major corporations and banks and prop up the stock market. The program is administered by the SBA but conducted through major banks, which actually approve and administer the loans. These financial institutions are seeking to maximize their profits and minimize their risk by extending larger loans to bigger companies.

Such was the demand that the program ran out of funds last Thursday, less than two weeks after it was launched. More than 25 percent of the value of the loans that had been approved went to fewer than 2 percent of the firms that got relief.

There are 30 million small businesses in the US, employing hundreds of millions of workers. Many are being bankrupted by the shutdown of much of the economy caused by the pandemic and the government’s failure to contain it.

Eleven percent of restaurant owners surveyed by the National Restaurant Association say they expect to close permanently by the end of this month. UBS Bank said 200,000 US restaurants, one in five, could go out of business. Nationally, 8 million restaurant workers have already been laid off. For the vast majority, the government program will do nothing to save their jobs.

The bill passed by the Senate on Tuesday includes, in addition to the $310 billion in new money for the PPP, $60 billion for a separate rescue program nominally for small businesses that also ran out of funds last week. The Economic Injury Disaster Loan program includes $50 billion in loans and $10 billion in grants.

Sixty billion dollars of the new PPP funding is to be handled by smaller “community” banks, with the intention of ensuring that minority-owned businesses get a share of the money.

The Democrats had made a show of pushing for additional money for hospitals and coronavirus testing, as well as for aid to state and city governments that are facing massive deficits due to collapsing tax revenues, and for more funding for the food stamp program. There is nothing in the series of corporate bailout bills enacted since the eruption of the coronavirus crisis to address the staggering growth of hunger in America. The consequences of repeated cuts in the food stamp program and social programs more broadly under Obama as well as Trump are now seen in massive food lines spreading across the country.

In the end, the Democrats settled for a completely inadequate $75 billion for hospitals and a derisory $25 billion for testing in the bill, whose total cost is pegged at $484 billion. They abjectly dropped their demand for relief to state and local governments and additional funding for food stamps.

The failure to secure aid to the states and localities is particularly significant. Depression levels of unemployment and negative economic growth are bankrupting state and local governments across the country.

While there is universal acceptance within both parties that unlimited amounts of public funding must be supplied to the corporate-financial elite to offset the impact of the economic collapse triggered by the pandemic, when it comes to the jobs, pensions, wages, schools and health care of the working class, the opposite principle applies. The only possible response, the ruling class declares in one voice, is the most brutal austerity.

Trump, for his part, is deliberately withholding aid from states and cities in order to pressure them to reopen their economies more quickly. He and Republican congressional leaders have held out the possibility of discussing such aid in a new round of bailout legislation.

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, state tax revenues may fall by $500 billion over the next three years. Moody’s Analytics warns that states may face combined deficits of $158 billion to $203 billion through the 2021 fiscal year. More than 2,100 cities across the country expect budget deficits this year.

Governors and mayors, Democrats no less than Republicans, are already imposing spending freezes and cuts. New Jersey’s Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, has frozen more than $1 billion in spending and cut property tax rebates for homeowners. Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, a Democrat, is seeking to freeze $2.3 billion in new spending that had been approved by lawmakers, scuttling a program for free tuition at community colleges and canceling an increase in the state minimum wage.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee, also a Democrat, this month vetoed budget items projected to cost $445 million over three years, including a plan to hire 370 school guidance counselors. Michigan may have a deficit as high as $7 billion over the next 18 months.

New York’s Democratic mayor, Bill de Blasio, announced last week that he would slash over $2 billion in city services over the next year. He plans to close public pools, reduce sanitation pickups, suspend the summer youth employment program and impose a hiring freeze.

Detroit’s Democratic mayor, Mike Duggan, has threatened to throw the city back into bankruptcy and bring in an emergency financial manager to impose new cuts in social services, pensions and jobs.