The failure of US strategy in Venezuela

Yanis Iqbal

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States’ “maximum pressure” campaign against Venezuela continues to intensify.

Washington is planning to impose sanctions on “bad actors” that do business with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government, singling out countries such as Russia, China, Cuba and Iran.

James Story, the top US diplomat accredited for Venezuela, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “Certainly by the actions we have taken, we’ve increased cost for bad actors, malign actors in Venezuela. We have to continue to consider other ways to do that”.

In addition to the possible sanctioning of countries supporting Maduro, the Trump administration has tapped into more than US$300 million in frozen Venezuelan government funds in an effort to strengthen its regime change operations against Maduro’s government; contemplated an October deadline for ending exemptions to Venezuelan sanctions that allow some companies and refiners to still receive the South American producer’s oil.

The US also seized four tankers in August, carrying 1.1 million barrels of fuel (valued at US$50 million) from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). These foreign-flagged ships were identified as Bella, Bering, Pandi and Luna and were brought to Houston, Texas.

Majid Takht Ravanchi – the spokesman for the Iranian mission to the United Nations – has deemed the seizure of ships as an act of “piracy” that is “a direct threat to international peace and security and contravenes international law, including the United Nations Charter”.

Increasing imperialist aggressions on the part of the US is an indication of a deeper failure of US foreign policy toward Venezuela, which has struggled to achieve domestic support among Venezuelans.

On August 2, Venezuela’s opposition decided to boycott the legislative elections scheduled for December 6, citing Maduro’s “oppressive dictatorship” as the reason. This decision has been lent support by Lima Group members and the US.

The opposition’s growing alienation from the masses has forced it to steer clear of the parliamentary elections. Coromoto Godoy Calderon, ambassador of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the Republic of India, told me that 83% of Venezuelans reject opposition leader Juan Guaidó and said: “it is typical US disinformation to present Guaidó as an ‘interim president’.

“This only hides the fact that the US regime-change policy and their Venezuelan puppets are increasingly losing support”.

The opposition’s fragmentation of legitimacy in the eyes of Venezuelans is closely correlated to US imperialist ambitions. To analyse the current situation of the anti-Chavista camp, it is necessary to look at the dynamics of American aims in Venezuela.

Oil and ideology

In a 2017 Oval Office meeting, US President Donald Trump said that Venezuela is “the country we should be going to war with”.

“They have all that oil and they’re right on our back door.”

In a similarly blunt and belligerent manner, John Bolton, at that time the National Security Advisor, told Fox News in January last year: “It will make a big difference to the United States economically if we could have American oil companies really invest in and produce the oil capabilities in Venezuela.”

From these statements, it is evident that US foreign policy toward Venezuela is motivated by two objectives.

Firstly, the US wants to establish complete control over a country which the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) defined in 1961 as “extraordinarily wealthy” in terms of its natural resources. Venezuela has rich resources of gold, nickel, iron ore, steel, diamond, alumina, coal, bauxite, asphalt, natural gas and petroleum. Of these resources, petroleum is the most important for Venezuela, accounting for 99% of the country’s export earnings.

The US has constantly targeted Venezuela’s large, lucrative oil reserves and the current war of economic sabotage, media propaganda and military coup against the country is a manifestation of US “petro-imperialism”.

Through US sanctions against Venezuela, the country’s oil production capacities have been undermined, with production reaching approximately 388,000 barrels a day in July, or 60% below the average oil production rate of July last year; the US has blacklisted vessel owners, shipping operators and threatened to sanction any tanker facilitating Venezuela’s oil exports.

Due to these measures, shipping firms are avoiding Venezuela, making it difficult to hire tankers to load and export crude. Venezuela’s state-owned company Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA) is unable to use its own tankers, because sanctions have left them lacking the certification needed to navigate international waters.

By crippling Venezuela’s oil production, the US hopes to succeed in raising global oil prices, opening up demand for its own producers and maintaining the boom in US oil production.

Secondly, by toppling the socialist administration of Maduro, the US would gain the ability to abruptly halt the construction of an independent foreign policy, restore US dominance; prevent the diversification of trading partners and privatise firms that have been partly or wholly nationalised. In a nutshell, USA will be able to eliminate the powerful force of socialist ideology and re-align Venezuela to the principles of capitalism if it succeeds in overthrowing Maduro’s government.

The potent threat of socialist ideology and the Bolivarian Revolution is known to various US security experts. In 2005, Max G Manwaring, retired Professor of Military Strategy at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, acknowledged that the Bolivarian Revolution is “developing the conceptual and physical capability to challenge the status quo in Latin America, and to generate a ‘Super Insurgency’ intended to bring about fundamental political and economic change in the region”.

Echoing the same view, free market economists Rafael Acevedo and Luis Cirocco wrote: “Since Chávez’s death in 2013, the attacks against private property continued, and Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, keeps promising more of the same.”

In terms of foreign policy, Venezuela has adopted an anti-imperialist policy since the Bolivarian Revolution initiated in 1999 and has sought to pursue an independent foreign policy. Even in the contemporary period, the country is collaborating with China, Russia, Iran, Cuba and now, Turkey to find alternatives to US imperialism.

Between March 19 and July 26, China shipped 46 tons of medical supplies to Venezuela, including more than one million rapid Coronavirus tests, 150,000 molecular diagnostic kits, eight million face masks, two million disposable gloves, up to 135,000 protective suits, more than 23,000 infrared thermometers and 14,000 lens protectors.

Chinese aid to Venezuela is part of a long-term diplomatic relationship between the countries. Between 1999 and 2011, for example, 430 bilateral agreements were signed, of which 171 were projects involving cooperation in the areas of energy and mining, agriculture, science, infrastructure, industry and aerospace.

Russia, similarly, provides aid to Venezuela and Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: “For its part, Russia will continue to aid Venezuela, namely on stabilising the sanitary-epidemiological situation”.

Venezuela’s relationship with Russia is also long-standing. Last year, Russia’s United Grain Company shipped 600,000 tons of grain to Venezuela to be used to distribute subsidised wheat flour to bakeries serving the poor. In the same year, the Saint-Petersburg-based Gerofarm Company sent 200,000 doses of insulin to Venezuela.

Iran is also helping Venezuela, having successfully shipped US$46 million worth of petrol, petroleum products and diluents to the South American country in May. According to Godoy, “the arrival of Iranian fuel and supplies to reactivate the oil and fuel industry for the population has made it possible to break the naval and energy blockade against the country, despite threats from the United States.”

On top of fuel shipments, Iran has established a supermarket in Venezuela called Megasis and shipped cargo carrying food to ensure proper supply in the newly established supermarket.

Recently, Turkey has started helping Venezuela by processing gold and facilitating the construction of new hospitals in different regions. Turkey has donated medical supplies, including 25 ventilators, 100,000 surgical masks, 50,000 N-95 type masks, 35,000 protective coveralls, 200,000 gloves and 40,000 test kits. It has also lifted tariffs on Venezuelan seeds and cheese, allowing the crisis-torn country to export a total of 16,600 tons of agricultural products free of customs duties.

Furthermore, Turkey has tripled its exports to Venezuela — which rose from US$37.4 million in 2017 to US$120.8 million in 2018 — and established a gold-for-food mechanism, wherein it has become a key supplier for the Maduro government’s main food subsidy program, known as the Local Supply and Production Committees (CLAPs).

Finally, Cuba has assisted Venezuela in its COVID-19 campaign by sending its medical brigades to the country. On March 15, Cuba sent several members of the Henry Reeve International Contingent of Doctors specialised in Disasters and Serious Epidemics to facilitate Venezuela’s Coronavirus health infrastructure.

More recently, on August 17, Cuba sent an additional 212 health professionals to the Latin American country so that the pandemic could be effectively combated. These medical brigades have greatly supported the exhaustive campaign to carry out tests, isolate cases and prevent infections.

Sanctions and militarism

Being a political group funded and propped up almost entirely by the US, the Venezuelan opposition has invariably reiterated the exploitative ambitions of US imperialism and has, therefore, lost the support of the masses.

During a speech in the US in 2013, the far-right politician and coup plotter Leopoldo Lopez said: “We have to hurry the exit of the government.

“Nicolas Maduro must go out sooner than later from the Venezuelan government. Nicolas Maduro and all his supporters…from my point of view, the method is secondary, what is important is the determination to reach our goals at any cost.”

Here, the right-wing politician epitomises the US-funded opposition camp in Venezuela whose only objective is to appeal for international sanctions to isolate, destabilise, and overthrow the government of Maduro and reach imperialist goals “at any cost”.

Support for sanctions has consigned the right-wing opposition to political oblivion since US sanctions have resulted in a severe health crisis, contributing to 40,000 deaths in 2017–18 alone.

More than 300 000 Venezuelans are at risk due to a lack of lifesaving medications; 80, 000 HIV-positive patients have had no antiretroviral therapy since 2017; insulin is unavailable because US banks have refused to handle Venezuelan payments for this; millions of people have been without access to dialysis, cancer treatment and therapy for hypertension; children have been affected due to delays in vaccination campaigns and children with leukaemia awaiting bone marrow transplants abroad are now dying.

Venezuela’s Vice President for Planning Ricardo Menendez has said the country has lost US$38 billion over three years because of US sanctions. In total, the country has lost US$169 billion as a result of the sanctions regime.

With that $169 billion, Venezuela could have paid its $110 billion debt, instituted redistributive measures or imported food and medicines for 45 years. Instead, Venezuela’s opposition has decided to clamour for US sanctions and further the objectives of imperialism.

The right-wing opposition in Venezuela has even tried military means to oust Maduro.

When asked whether he would like Trump and the US military to intervene, Guaidó said he would “evaluate all options” to oust Maduro.

In a similar fashion, Trump, too, declined to rule out military intervention in Venezuela as he met Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro in March lasy year. On May 3, a failed military incursion called “Operation Gideon”, was carried out by Silvercorp, a private US security company hired by Guaidó.

The Venezuelan opposition is, therefore, ideologically inclined towards militarism and this has further dissociated it from the people. Last year, a poll indicated that 86% of Venezuelans reject a military intervention.

Nevertheless, military intervention is still on the cards and according to a “Threat Model” developed by a researcher at the American Military University, “The inability of the US to achieve its goals by current policies will likely embolden hawks to push for stronger measures.”

Moreover, Aruba and Curaçao each house a US military Forward Operating Location (FOL) that could be used to militarily invade Venezuela.

In June, four US Air Force aircraft and crew were deployed to Hato Airport on Curaçao by the US Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) to “help US and international law enforcement authorities disrupt and defeat transnational criminal organisations trafficking illegal narcotics in the region”.

This was a highly belligerent act against Venezuela insofar as the Western media, the US Department of Justice and the International Narcotics Control Board falsely framed Maudro’s administration as a “narco-state”.

In a likewise manner, the US carried out Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOps) and Psychological Operations (PSYOps) on July 15. The objective of these operations was “to progressively degrade an adversary’s decision-making process, undermining command and control. Carried out on a regular basis, they put the adversary under a false state of alert or, worse, monotony”.

As the right-wing opposition in Venezuela subverts socialism and democracy with the support of the US, the Chavista support-base is slowly consolidating.

A war-mongering article published in Military Review acknowledged that Maduro’s “supporters have an ideology — anti-imperialist socialism — that serves to unify their efforts in coordinated responses to security challenges, and explains Maduro’s political resilience to outside pressures.”

“If US forces launch an operation into the heavily built-up areas in Caracas, or some of its other outlying areas, aside from having to deal with Venezuela’s conventional forces, they will likely face stiff, armed resistance from irregular forces and opposition in multiple forms from crowds sympathetic to Maduro and his political ideology, including armed uprisings as well as passive popular resistance.”

Washington and their political puppets know full well that while they can sanction and militarise Venezuela, they cannot gain legitimacy among Venezuelans.

Agribusiness and food industry: A curse for slavery and traditional farming

Bijit Das

Ignorance can be the best escapism, but if we are cognizant about the history of agriculture and the morphology of earth, we will know that a spectre haunts the living today. The spectre of science in proliferating scientificity and genealogy of knowledge on food production haunt us today.

Food for self is transformed into food for others under the realm of business and surplus accumulation. Remembering the geographer David Harvey’s magnum opus on accumulation by dispossession regenerates the spirit of Marx’s primitive accumulation to understand the nexus of two independent identities of land, labour and ultimately the colonization of both.

Food is something that has a cultural hegemony on living beings. We all want it, there is a denial of it, there is business happening, there is politics happening because of it. Primitive accumulation has led to the metamorphosis of the food from being a need to being a need for industry. The food and agribusiness industry today lingers around the soul of neoliberalism, corporatization and industrialisation.

When there is an overproduction of any good involving surplus, capital and labour accumulation there is a factor of harm involved in it, a prognosticate that can be drawn from history. This harm occurs because of the invisible thin line drawn between illegal and legal anthropocentric activities related to food such as exploitation of labour in the food industry, food adulteration and deception of food calibre.

Justice to human plight is sought from the human-created institution of law. Law in terms of food-related harms often flunks to render protective working conditions for farmworkers or cornering the false consciousness prevalent among the mass of acquiring healthy food. And thus behind this subterfuge, it’s the agribusiness and food companies that rejoices a moment of pleasure.

This can be explained by how food-related harms are induced within the farming practices and the impact of capitalism on farming which juxtaposes the impact of primitive accumulation of farming lands and their fertility, accumulation by dispossession of farmers autonomy by the culture of mono cropping and GM seed companies.

Food industry and slavery in America

The animating force of labour is induced into human history since time immemorial, so is slavery a part of the history of agricultural production. The cocoa industry in America during the European colonialism flourished under the undecipherable veil of slavery. The idealism of European trade expansionism was implied by the exploitation of land and resource, therefore to manifest this idealism there was a demand for labour, and the cocoa industry was no exception on this.

During the initial kick-off, the eye on labour was sufficed by the indigenous American population but this led to certain catastrophes when these populations were introduced to various diseases of which they weren’t immune to, perhaps leading to substantial population diminution. Therefore the alternate solution to meet the demand gave an eye on to the former and source of slave workers, Africa.

Slavery was a new normal back then which was approved and backed by forces such as Pope and the Catholic Church for the non-Christian people. This continued till 1965 when the church became partisan towards the obligation of inhumanity. And it was up to 1840 that slavery was considered illegal in England.

The cocoa industry expanded to its optimum in the due course of time till eradication of slavery became a convention. This was a splendid hour for romanticising of companies like Cadbury, Mars, Hershey, Rowntree, Fry and Lindt. The epoch saw the growth of cocoa production as well as the movement to abolish slavery. And in the midst of this the Harkin- Engel Protocol came up that obstructed corporates for stimulation of child and forced labour. Though slavery got recognition as an unlawful act by law, still these forms of labour haunt humanity till date.

The ghost that frightens traditional farming

Late 20th century marked the occasion of rampant increment of the worldwide network, which flourished under the consolidation of capitalist’s fiscal exponent, under the management of enhancing technocracy and scientific yield, competitiveness beneath the minority positioning of farmers in the agrarian domain.

The genetically modified crops that were created to boost food production were embedded by the patent laws. These GM seeds were procured from corporate institutions like Monsanto, Syngenta, Du Pont and Bayer into different parts of the world. The laws had the synergy of using the seeds only once in a season with entering into strict contact with the corporations by the farmers and there were various sanctions for failure of obligations.

Fines became the future of some farmers who innocently grew genetically modified crops without entering into contracts. Thus, farmers dispossessed from their autonomy over their ability to choose seeds felt as contract farmers, and unable to make an independent decision concerning farming.

The financial crisis of 1980, the birth of contract farming did nothing rather than to add more to the plight, and also giving opportunity for proliferating financial powers of corporates. The elites with bucks, the owners of mega enterprises expanded their sucking tentacles into the financialization of the economy, controlling liquidity in the market considering the demand and price level, creating game plans and sometimes a vacuum of crisis. The immense amount of money which was accumulated by the elites was the product of accumulation by dispossession and not out of growth.

Farmers increasingly becoming rural landless and falling under the tentacles of mono farming sparks the enigma induced in the Indian state of Jharkhand’s Palamau where the rampant eucalyptus plantation to meet the growing demands for the agribusiness companies robbed the villagers of food, water, fuel and means of endurance. Adding more to the devastation the following plant sucked up water to an extent that it led to chronic water scarcity in regions where the plant was grown.

Now the question is which class of people benefits from the industries connected with eucalyptus farming, it is defiantly not the poor and the downtrodden.

Theft of resource and environmental transformation is the product of accumulation by dispossession and the credit system is adding fuel to this dispossession by dialectically accumulating the dispossessions of the poor. Farmer suicide and a divorce between farmers from their lands, a divorce that is constructed through exhausting and fading away of farmers autonomy to their land where they live and their lack of decisive ability in what is raised and for whom, a divorce that is a product of harm that no law acknowledges can be totaled to David Harvey’s pessimism.

Compulsive Shopping Addiction

Zeenat Khan

A recent study done by a market research firm Rakuten Intelligence found that since the pandemic started there has been a sudden rise in online shopping. Ecommerce spending in the U.S. is up more than 30 percent since the beginning of March. Ecommerce is booming, and Silicon Valley’s’ richest such as Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are getting even richer while the pandemic gets worse. Compulsive buying among consumers has become a very real phenomenon in the United States since coronavirus came to town. It splits fairly equally along gender lines: 6% of women and 5% of men. The overall trend reveals that under life in quarantine people who are fortunate to have jobs are spending more than before. There has been a slight change in focus as people are more motivated on buying entertainment products and books as most people are homebound now. The initial phase of buying in bulk and stockpiling in groceries and other items has lessened a bit. The supply chain has been rocked by the pandemic, the crisis seems to be over, and it remains operational in full force.

Let us not be fooled that we are only buying essentials. The quintessential proverb that women and shopping go hand in hand might sound like a cliché. Is this statement a myth, or does it connote an actual reality in today’s global, urban culture? With the evolution of digital commerce, compulsive buying especially now has increased at an alarming rate. It has gotten easier and faster now to find things that one is looking for. Shopping nowadays has become as easy as baking an apple pie. While the literature on global trends in obsessive shopping is still growing, there is increasing evidence that overconsumption affects a significant number of shoppers, particularly women, across the world – in America, Europe, Asia and Africa.

The leading consumer data analytics firm Amperity tracks consumer spending. It recorded, “huge plunges in spending in the first full week of April on ‘home, jewelry, and leisure’ and ‘fashion and apparel’.” The numbers are not same as it used to be but it is still huge. During the pandemic women including myself are buying things nonstop. We are at times making hasty decisions in buying things that we do not actually need right now. My recent acquisition of a Prada purse during the pandemic might seem bizarre to some people. The superfluous spending on a luxury item can fall under impulsive buying. I, of course, will not agree with this as I have convinced myself that as long as it (such purchases) doesn’t become a pattern, I am not a compulsive buyer. My rationale is: I always wanted a black Prada and I bought it with the hope that there will be a better and normal future. So why not get ready for it in anticipation? Does this make me a “romantic shopper” like the Chinese consumers?  Perhaps. “How else does one explain the shopping craze witnessed in China on the first day of reopening a single Hermès store clocked in $2.7 million in sales?” Qubit reported, “A 2% rise in luxury spending in late March even as fast-fashion sales plunged 40%. The theory of buying less but better is what causing this increase in sales of luxury items.”

Though women have a tendency to spend more on shopping than men – some men can be worse than women. For example, British rock star Sir Elton John has recently admitted that in less than two years, he had spent almost 40M lbs. on shopping. Though, there are major differences in how men and women shop. In 2013, a survey was conducted in Britain of 2000 people, assessing whether men and women shop with the same things in mind. The survey found that women look for a great bargain; they take a long time in choosing a color, checking out the label, the fiber contents and going in the dressing room to try out the outfit. After spending about two hours – more often than not they decide to forgo the search, and start it all over again. Men, on the other hand become bored after twenty-six minutes, on average, into their shopping.

The numbers of compulsive shoppers are ubiquitously on the rise as this fever has become a global phenomenon. In countries with rapidly growing economies, like China, adult women are famously becoming hooked on shopping and acquiring the latest designer goods. In South Asia, this movement is also catching on. In Bangladesh and India, women are reportedly working hard to keep up in their search for the latest saris, lehengas, stylish salwar suits, and pieces of jewelry in trendy boutiques and stores. Many women are enticed by the newly arrived online boutiques and cannot resist the unique shopping experience. High-end women’s designer fashions and the ambience in a new store or an array of online display ads attract many urban women to make frequent purchases.

Compulsive shoppers or the shopaholics’ motto is: whatever it is, we want it. They want the latest trendy clothes, designer accessories, or the latest must-have fad – no matter where in the world it comes from, or whatever the cost might be. To the shopaholic, shopping is not a frivolous, fun activity. They become obsessed with buying things. Their spending sprees, which can get out of hand, create serious financial and emotional distress, for the entire family. It has the potential to create a lethal whirlwind in a household — like a ship getting caught in a sudden storm. As a result, often the entire family suffers for one member’s hidden addiction.

Women have a tendency to spend more on shopping than men. However, there are major differences in how men and women shop. A survey was conducted in Britain of 2000 people, assessing whether men and women shop with the same things in mind. The findings were that women look for a great bargain; they take a long time in choosing a color, checking out the label, the fiber contents and going in the dressing room to try out the outfit. After spending about two hours — more often than not they decide to forgo the search, and start it all over again. Men, on the other hand become bored after twenty-six minutes, on average, into their shopping. When ordering online they spend way less time than women. Most men do not like shopping with their partners, and many avoid doing so at any cost. Women take a lot of time in selecting an item, whereas a man selects an item within the first few minutes.

Is obsessive shopping a hobby taken too far, or an addiction? Whether it is a woman’s own money, family inheritance share, or the money comes from the spousal joint account – a lot of women love to spend money in buying things that they do not actually need or really want. There are constant TV commercials, and endless shopping deals that are being offered to the consumers. The online shopping is available 24/7, and most women today have access to a PC or an iPad. Some even enjoy shopping using their iPhone.

Experts on shopaholics’ behavior believe that there are many underlying problems that trigger shopping addiction. We need to dig a little deeper here, and try to peel away the layers to see what else we can uncover behind shopaholics’ unusual spending. Psychologists call this addiction “Compulsive Buying Disorder.” The medical term used to describe shopaholics is called “Omnimonia.” This disorder can fall under irrational behavior, and possesses the same characteristics of that of a gambler, drug addict or a binge eater – people who are unable to control a sudden impulse.

Throughout the year, my mailbox is jammed with glossy flyers from many department stores promoting upcoming sales. My inbox is filled with announcements of upcoming super sales and new promotions. Now the stores have gone one step further since many are not going to the enclosed shopping malls now. I have heard from a friend how one particular store calls her at home lately to update her on the sales so that she can get the best pick. This kind of marketing strategy is a form of aggression, which more and more stores will adapt in no time. The personal phone call is a somewhat a new trend to deceive a buyer into thinking that she is a very valued customer. Such manipulation on the part of the seller makes a good and trusting consumer duped into charging away.

When an impulsive purchase becomes an obsession – it is the very first sign that one might be grappling with a very serious condition. Shopaholics are not occasional impulsive buyers. When they are in a department store, or searching on the internet, they can immediately spot the latest fashion – a watch, purse, and jewelry gleaming in display cases. While checking it out — they are also on the lookout for a pair of perfect black suede shoes that will go with a newly purchased outfit, for Sunday dinner at a friend’s house. All the while, they might be cheerfully thinking about how their designer ensemble will add a dash to their sophistication, and how they will be the envy of that group. It is this ‘high’ or the thrill of having material stuff that makes life exciting. Perhaps a shopaholic lives to feel that experience.

Continuous purchasing of new items gives people an “adrenaline rush.” According to experts quoted in the Huffington Post, “dopamine, a brain chemical associated with pleasure, is often released in waves as shoppers see a desirable item & consider buying it.” Such burst of sudden excitement can become very addictive for many. The compulsion becomes so intense that they max out their credit cards and get new ones with high interest rates. They often are unable to pay the monthly minimum payments and go into huge debt. I once read an article where a woman took out a second mortgage on her home in order to support her shopping addiction. She did this without consulting her spouse since the house was in her name — a gift from her own parents.

Most women who indulge in abnormal shopping sprees try to rationalise their spending beyond their means as normal behavior. Working women might justify their spending habits as well-deserved special treatment; if no one else is pampering them – that is the least they can do for themselves to boost their ego. Or, they might simply say: I earned it, and I have the right to spend it. Single women are another case: they might reason that they need to look sharp, smart and available, and to keep up with ever-changing fashion trends means constant shopping. Otherwise, potential life partners might not pay attention to them. They convince themselves that keeping up with appearances will be a big pay off when they can hook the most eligible bachelors in town. With that possibility on the horizon, they shop to look their best.

Each woman’s reasons for spending are quite different from another. There are no set causes; often each story is sadder than the one before. Compulsive shopping is usually associated with other issues, such as depression, mood disorders, eating disorders, substance abuse problems, loneliness, social isolation (a huge factor during the coronavirus pandemic), low self-esteem, job pressure, divorce and hordes of relationship issues. They may look for validation from a spouse, boyfriend, friends, or even from co-workers. Wearing a particular designer number makes them feel good, temporarily. A shopaholic has a thousand different ways to justify her/his indulgence and why they continuously buy things.

Initially, shopaholics cover their tracks very well. It might start as buying one pair of designer jeans, the latest purse made by Gucci or Louis Vuitton, or a $575.00 pair of Jimmy Choo shoes. Most shopaholic women are particularly vulnerable to shoes and designer handbags. Triggered by the desire to fill some kind of void, traumatic event or just to feel good, the shopaholics immerse themselves in material things. They show zero regard for their finances. Sometimes having a simple argument, originating from the pressures of daily life, can trigger that impulse to go on the Internet to surf their favorite online sites.

More often than not, shopaholics are under huge psychological pressure to avoid getting caught. Even if they try very hard, they cannot curb their spending. Sometimes they bring new items into the house when no one is around, and hide things in their attics or deep in their daughters’ closets so that no one can make the discovery. The compulsive shoppers are often on edge if they cannot swipe their credit cards on a daily basis. If they are unable to shop during the day, at night when everyone is asleep, they go online and order things. They may spend countless hours on eBay, betting for a $600 dollar, Italian leather summer sandal that they may not even wear.

Shopaholics become very good at rationalizing their behavior and just about any purchase if they are cornered or challenged. Sooner or later such habits catch up with them though. The unsuspecting spouses go through severe shock when they find out. Sometimes families have to declare bankruptcy because they cannot pay the bills that their wives/husbands had hiked up without their knowledge. Marriages fall apart, divorce becomes a real possibility – couples lose their family homes to the banks. Debt collectors keep on calling them from morning until late at night. Children suffer because of a rude awakening that the family they knew as theirs is no longer there because of a shopaholic parent.

Social Media And The Mental Health Of The Youth

Sehba Jamal

Social media becomes an essential tool for youth today. Undoubtedly it helps people in connecting with the people around the globe and also reduces the distance, but on the other hand, it created a detachment from the people who are around. Social media is mostly famous among youngsters; they spend most of their time on social platforms for different purposes. It is one of the tools which shares a single platform with many users and helps an individual in expressing their feelings, thoughts, and views and also helps in showing their other side of being bloggers.

According to Merriam Webster (2014), defines social media as “forms of electronic communication (as web sites for social networking and microblogging) through which users create online communities to share information, ideas, personal messages, and other content (as videos).”

In this 21 century, youth, are preferring virtual communication, spending most of their time on social media for different purposes.

Interaction with the real-world is minimal, which creates the feeling of being isolated, and many youngsters feel irritated and disturbed. No doubt, social media is a great tool. It helps people in socializing with the world and also helps you in sharing your creativity, your perspective.

SOCIAL MEDIA AND ITS LINK TO MENTAL HEALTH

There is a famous quote of Aristotle “human beings are a social animal.” It ultimately defines human beings who can’t live in isolation; they need interaction. Communication is vital for a healthy life, and through social media, people get a platform where they can easily share their opinion and feelings. On the other hand, the same social media creating stress, anxiety, overthinking, depression, and many more. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), mental health is “a state of well-being in which the individual realizes his or her abilities, can cope with the normal stresses of life, can work productively and fruitfully, and can make a contribution to his or her community.” There are many effects of social media; it could be positive and negative, but mental problems or mental issues that arise when something is negatively impacting us. We know that today, it’s impossible to live without smartphones and social media, but the excess usage of these things has significant consequences on the life of people. Extra use of social media leads an individual in isolation and cuts them off from real society as people started living in the virtual world.

POSITIVE ASPECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Interaction through social media possesses many benefits for you. It makes communication easy with family and friends anytime, anywhere, and helps you to keep up to date around the world and can create a virtual family.

Social media provides you a platform where you can raise your voice on any critical issues and raise awareness also.

You can promote your business and ideas with the world.

It helps you in educating yourself through distance mode or school from home.

It helps in reducing isolation and also helps provides you entertainments in the form of movies, songs, comedy shows, etc. which, in many cases, becomes emotional support.

NEGATIVE ASPECTS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Everything possesses good or bad in itself. Social media to have negative quality despite so much positivity. The same social media which reducing your isolation will create social isolation for you and reduce your face to face interaction.

CYBERBULLYING

According to Wikipedia, “Cyberbullying or cyberharassment is a form of bullying or harassment using electronic means. Cyberbullying and cyberharassment are also known as online bullying.”

In the article times of India 27 October 2018, it has been reported that 37 percent of Indian parents say their children have been a victim of cyberbullying. (Dhawan, 2018)

Victims of cyberbullying end up with psychological problems, like depression, isolation, anxiety, stress, low esteem, and in some cases, it becomes a case of suicide.

STALKING

For many years the term “stalking” described the activity of hunters pursuing animal prey (Heckels & Roberts, 2010).

Stalking is something that can be done deliberately towards an individual intended to frighten by making texts, emails, phone calls, explicit or implicit threats, blackmail, or even sexual assault; usually.

SOCIAL ISOLATION

One of the famous quotes of Aristotle, “human beings are a social animal.” Human beings cannot live in isolation because the mental and physical condition of an individual determines by the interaction. A mental state of an individual depends on social interaction because human beings are social creatures. It doesn’t affect only health but also our morality example, high blood pressure, sleep factor, and emotional factors, etc. (our social networks like families, communities virtual or real, etc.), helps us in surviving.

INTERNET ADDICTION

Today, it is very much difficult for anyone to keep away from accessing social media. Social media is one of the most talkative topics among youth. Most youngsters are addicted to the internet. Almost teenagers having a mobile in hand and accessing social media for a long hour is eventually become an addiction, and slowly it starts impacting their mental health,  day to day routine, and personal development.

SUGGESTIONS

Youth should be careful while connecting with the people who are unknown to you; it helps you in keeping away from cyberbullying and won’t affect their mental health.

The relationship between parents and children must be friendly so they can share everything and will develop a happy and healthy life.

Youth should limit the usage of social media.

The Israel-UAE Deal Isn’t About Peace at All

Phyllis Bennis

In some ways, the U.S.-brokered plan for mutual recognition between Israel and the United Arab Emirates is big news. For more than a quarter of a century, only two Middle Eastern countries—Egypt and Jordan—had officially recognized Israel. None of the Gulf monarchies did.

So, it was a pretty big deal when the announcement was made. Except, actually, not so much.

Despite the UAE’s claimed adherence to a decades-long position that no Arab country should normalize relations with Israel until it ended its occupation of Palestinian land, ties between the UAE and Israel had been quietly underway for years. The same is true of many other Arab states.

Quiet but not-quite-covert trade, technology transfers, and security partnerships are an old story. Intelligence ties began in the 1970s, and commercial links took off after the 1994 Oslo accords.  After 9/11, the Bush administration encouraged technology as well as security connections. These expanded continuously, pausing only when Israel assassinated a Hamas leader in the UAE in 2010 and the UAE briefly severed relations.

But by 2011, when Arab popular uprisings across the region were terrifying the autocratic Gulf monarchies, the ties were quickly reestablished. All it took was an Israeli decision to allow a weapons technology sale to the UAE to go through, and a promise they wouldn’t carry out future assassinations in UAE territory.

Over the next decade, Iran emerged as the major enemy du jour for both Israel and the UAE, not to mention several other U.S.-backed Arab monarchies and dictatorships. By the time Trump came into office, his Middle East policy was shaped almost entirely around the creation of a regional anti-Iran coalition with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE at its core.

No Pretense of Peace for Palestinians

What wasn’t involved in any of this recent trajectory? Palestine.

Almost 30 years ago, Washington orchestrated a supposed Middle East peace conference in Madrid, based on what became known as the “outside/in” strategy. The idea was that under U.S. and—sort of—international auspices, Israel would normalize relations with Arab states while continuing its occupation, settlement expansion, land theft, and discrimination against Palestinians. And once the Arab governments were on board the U.S.-Israeli train, the Palestinians would have no choice but to get on board, too.

That plan failed, of course. And the next iteration, the so-called “inside/out” strategy of creating an Israeli-Palestinian agreement first, which shaped the Oslo accords of the mid-1990s, failed as well. Neither held any potential for actual peace, because neither aimed to provide justice for Palestinians living under Israeli control and facing Israel’s wildly disproportionate power.

So why would anyone think that a return to the earlier failed “outside/in” approach would work any better this time? Because this time around, there was no pretense that Israeli-Palestinian peace—let alone justice—was the goal.

Who Gets What?

Both Israel and the UAE have wanted normalization for a long time. And now they’ve got it. No serious Israeli opposition exists. Public opposition in the UAE, if it exists, is sufficiently suppressed as to appear non-existent. And Palestinian opposition is irrelevant.

Israel gets its first acknowledged normalization with a Gulf monarchy, and gives up nothing.

Formally, Israel says it will suspend its formal annexation of the West Bank as part of the deal. But its de facto annexation of huge swathes of Palestinian land in the West Bank has been in place for decades, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government had already put off a declaration of formal annexation because right-wing pressure had shifted from demands for annexation to concerns about the pandemic. And Israel’s United Nations Ambassador Gilad Erdan maintains even now that annexation “isn’t off the table and will be back on the agenda.”

Meanwhile, going public with UAE ties strengthens Israel’s role at the center of the regional anti-Iran coalition. All good for Tel Aviv.

For its part, the UAE gets brownie points with the United States, especially with the Trump administration (and most especially with Trump son-in-law and Middle East adviser Jared Kushner, who has become a BFF of UAE crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed as well as his Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman).

Normalizing public ties with Israel strengthens the Emiratis’ regional position within Washington’s Middle East orbit. And the new connection gives much-needed credibility to the more aggressive regional role the UAE has been playing in recent years in the region, where it’s been punching far above its weight.

With a population of less than 10 million—of which only about 12 percent are UAE citizens— the breathtakingly wealthy statelet is playing major military roles in war-devastated Yemen and in chaos-riven Libya. The result has been a much more visible role within Washington’s anti-Iran coalition.

The UAE’s Israel embrace also gives the Saudis a bit of a poke in the eye, as it represents a direct repudiation of the 2002 Saudi-launched Arab Peace Initiative. That plan was never implemented, but it was predicated on a clear rejection of normalization with Israel absent an end to Israel’s occupation of the 1967 territories, a just solution for Palestinian refugees, and the creation of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

The U.S. gains strength in the region by getting two key economically and militarily powerful allies to hook up ever more closely against Iran. Trump can claim re-election credit from his extremist pro-Israel base (primarily Christian fundamentalists) for helping Israel gain more Arab recognition.

And of course what better way to follow the Trump family performance disguised as the Republican convention than a high-visibility, high-pomp signing ceremony between two of the president’s favorite allies?

It Could Get Worse

And the Palestinians. The Palestinians get what the Palestinians always get. Bupkes, as my grandma used to say. Yiddish for “nothing.”

Not a big shift, since Arab governments in general and the UAE monarchy in particular have done little to nothing to actually support Palestinian rights in recent years. The deal does nothing to end the threat of annexation, since de facto annexation is already in place and de jure annexation is just being delayed for a while.

Could it get worse? Absolutely. The UAE move provides political cover for other Arab states to make their covert ties with Israel public—despite on-again/off-again denials, Sudan and Oman are rumored to be moving towards recognition, and possibly Bahrain as well.

Those moves could complicate Palestinian diplomatic efforts at the United Nations or elsewhere.

Even without substance, rhetorical validation from Arab governments has sometimes been useful for Palestinian efforts to show the global breadth of their support. At the non-governmental level, some boycott campaigns against businesses profiting from occupation might face challenges because of Arab governments protecting those companies. But the agreement will not seriously affect BDS, a global grassroots movement led by Palestinian civil society that does not rely on any government support.

Like so many U.S. “peace plans” before it, the Israel-UAE normalization deal will fail to bring peace. De facto annexation of illegally occupied Palestinian land continues, and refugees are still denied their right of return. While those things continue, no new Israel-Arab normalization effort has any chance of bringing peace.

We need to remember, once again, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s warning that “Peace is not just the absence of war, but the presence of justice.”

Bangladesh: A Safe haven for killers of journalists

Saifur Rahman Saif

Journalists in Jashore, a bordering district in Bangladesh, have observed the death anniversary of slain journalist RM Saiful Alam Mukul, editor of local daily Runner on August 30. It was his 22nd anniversary of death. On July 16, they observed the death anniversary of another journalist Shamsur Rahman, former special correspondent of Bangla daily Janakantho and also stringer of BBC Bangla Service.

Observing death anniversaries of slain journalists marking the day of assassinations has become a regular phenomenon for journalists in Jashore.

Rebel journalist RM Saiful Alam Mukul was killed by some unidentified assailants near his residence at Bezpara in Jashore town at around 10pm on August 30, 1998 local time.

His father Golam Mazed, founding editor of the daily was also killed in torture by the then government during the era of late president HM Ershad.

A case was filed with Jashore Kotwali police station by the victim’s widow Hafiza Akhter Shirin on the next day after the killing without naming the killers. Dulal Uddin Akand, assistant superintendent of police, Criminal Investigation Department,  produced a charge sheet before a Jashore court accusing 22  persons including Tariqul Islam, former minister and  late standing committee member of the country’s main opposition party -Bangladesh Nationalist Party on April 23,199. The BNP leader’s name was dropped from the case by the High Court later. The case was abandoned at one stage. The case came back to life in 2005. Maula Box, assistant superintendent of police, CID pressed a supplementary charge sheet inducting two more names. A court in Jashore framed charges accusing 22 people on 15th June, 2006 dropping the name of Tariqul Islam and another.  The court registered the statements of 25 witnesses in the case in 2010. It is believed that the name of the late BNP leader was inducted in the case for the sake of politics as he was an opposition party leader.

On July 16, 2000 Shamsur Rahman was shot dead by unidentified assailants at his office at Daratana, the heart of Jashore district town in Bangladesh. The incident took place at around 8:10pm on the day. Shamsur Rahman was also a writer of several books.

Both the incidents spurred movement particularly of the journalists in Jashore and also across the country, for which the government made assurance of justice.

As like as Mukul’s wife, Selina Akhter Lucky, wife of Shamsur Rahman, filed a case with the Kotwali police after the death of Shamsur Rahman. The Criminal Investigation Department, where the case was later shifted, submitted its charge sheet, accusing 16 people, five of whom were journalists, including Farazi Ajmal Hossain, special correspondent, Daily Ittefaq. In 2005 the case was shifted to the Speedy Tribunal, Khulna.

Journalists think that the name of journalists who were inducted in the list of murderers is innocent.  They are also victims of politics.

Bangladesh’s popular Bangla daily Prothomalo reported that a total of 27 journalists were killed in the country since 1992 although the name of daily Runner journalist Faruk Hossain and some others were not included.

On the other hand, the UNESCO in its report named 21 journalists in the list of killings.

I personally knew some of the victims, for which I took part in agitations demanding justice for them. Shamsur Rahman, RM Saiful Alam Mukul, Faruk Hossain, Manik Saha and Sheikh Belaluddin are among them. They all were closed to me.

After the killing of Mukul, journalists and political and social activists took to the street demanding justice. At that time they used to say- we want justice—–‘But now, they say – we don’t want justice as we don’t get it—-‘So, Bangladesh has become a safe haven for killers of journalists.

How Obama Administration Covered Up Swine Flu Pandemic?

Nauman Sadiq

It baffles the mind whether it’s willful blindness or anterograde amnesia but while drawing parallels with coronavirus outbreak, mainstream media appears to vividly recall Spanish flu of 1918 from a century ago and doesn’t seem to have an inkling about a much more pertinent example of H1N1 swine flu pandemic in 2009-10, even though it shared a lot of common characteristics with COVID-19 pandemic.

Although official statistics are much lower, according to subsequent peer-reviewed studies, H1N1 swine flu outbreak of 2009 infected 700 million to 1.4 billion people world-wide and caused 1,50,000 to 575,000 fatalities only in the first year of the outbreak in 2009.

Cumulative number of fatalities in subsequent years could be well above a million of which hundreds of thousands of deaths could have occurred in the worst affected countries, the US, Mexico and Brazil, though unreported because extensive testing wasn’t done at the time of the outbreak.

Even though vaccine was invented in 2010, the H1N1 virus was eventually defeated, particularly in the developing world, by natural immunity and not be medical remedies. WHO reclassified it as “variant of seasonal flu” and the dreaded designation “pandemic” was removed in August 2010.

The reason why corporate media and international health organizations shirked their responsibility to create public awareness on the H1N1 swine flu pandemic in the US, Mexico and Brazil was due to the fact that the US economy was going through economic recession that began in 2008 and lasted into 2009, whereas the swine flu epidemic began in March 2009 and lasted into 2010.

Extensive media coverage of the outbreak could have further exacerbated the recession, which it did in part, but thankfully no sweeping lockdowns or quarantine measures were enforced then. Mainstream news outlets were hushed up from reporting on the H1N1 epidemic by then newly elected Obama administration, and self-censorship from a decade ago appears to have restrained corporate media from mentioning the name of swine flu pandemic even now.

Whether it’s swine flu of 2009 or coronavirus outbreak of today, pandemics are like a deluge that can be managed to minimize the damage but cannot be contained. All it takes is a small crack in the embankment for the force of nature to unleash its fury and eliminate all obstacles coming in its way.

When the epidemic is surging exponentially, the contagion infects millions of people within the short span of several months, of which only a minuscule fraction exhibits symptoms and is diagnosed with the infection, while the rest are asymptomatic and go unnoticed. But they develop resistance against re-infection, thus contributing to achieving herd immunity.

Had political correctness been the remedy, designating coronavirus outbreak as seasonal flu would solve the dilemma, as WHO reclassified swine flu pandemic as common cold in August 2010 and gave the international economy breathing space in the aftermath of 2008-9 global recession.

Technically, a patient tested positive for HIV virus isn’t said to be suffering from AIDS. AIDS is the severe form of the infection when dormant HIV virus becomes active, begins replicating and starts causing harm to the body tissues and organs. Similarly, a patient tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 isn’t actually suffering from COVID-19, unless the patient develops symptoms of severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Treatment and hospitalization is only needed for severe cases of COVID-19, and asymptomatic and mild cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection simply have to be quarantined for a couple of weeks either at homes or at quarantine centers until their natural immunity overcomes the virus so they don’t pose a risk of spreading infection among communities.

Periodically, epidemics come and go. They are defeated by body’s natural immune system and don’t need treatment. Certain contagions, like Ebola with case fatality ratio of 90%, require preventive measures, such as quarantines and lockdowns, but the rest, like H1N1 swine flu, H5N1 bird flu and SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 with infection fatality ratio of less than 0.2%, are treated like common cold that causes tens of thousands deaths every year in the US alone. Common cold influenza spreads across the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths.

Even though the infection fatality rate of H1N1 swine flu was lower, at 0.02%, compared to COVID-19’s 0.2%, if the total number of cases in the calculation is reduced from 1.4 billion to a few hundred million and the actual number of fatalities caused by swine flu in 2009-10 is accurately calculated, then H1N1’s infection fatality rate would probably be comparable to COVID-19’s fatality rate. Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 could even be less than 0.1% once the outbreak subsides and accurate number of infections and fatalities are correctly known.

Even the most accurate COVID-19 test RT-PCR only has an accuracy level of 50-60%, especially in asymptomatic individuals or if the virus has penetrated deep into respiratory tract. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, RT-PCR (viral testing), is considered the gold standard of diagnosis for COVID-19 and other viruses. Although it has high sensitivity and specificity in a laboratory setting, chances of finding virus in specimens are: 90% in Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, 70% in sputum and 50-60% in nasal swabs, though used most frequently.

If extensive sero-epidemiological studies are done, it would be found out that actual prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is much higher than 25 million reported infections, perhaps comparable to H1N1 swine flu’s 700 million to 1.4 billion world-wide infections.

At the peak of the outbreak in March and April, Italian doctors reported the actual number of cases could be as high as 6,50,000, particularly in the worst-hit Lombardy and Milan regions, though total cases in Italy until August are still reported to be only 2,67,000.

Similarly, Iranian epidemiologist Ehsan Mostafavi recently said: “About 15 million Iranians may have experienced being infected with this virus since the outbreak began.” That amounts to 1 in 5 Iranians or 20% of Iran’s population.

Coronavirus may have infected ten times more Americans than reported, according to a report by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Thus, the actual number of infections in the US as well as Europe could be ten to twenty times higher than the official statistics, which is enough for the viral infection to reach endemic steady state and for the population to develop herd immunity against the contagion.

An extensive study in Spain shows 5% population has developed antibodies, which means number of infections is ten times higher than reported 4,40,000 cases. People in urban areas have up to 10% prevalence of antibodies.

Though widely believed to have originated in Wuhan in January, the exact date and place of origin of SARS-CoV-2 are also doubtful. A Spanish research team found traces of the virus in a March 2019 sewage sample whereas the outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan in January 2020. In fact, several Chinese diplomats recently cast doubts over the widely accepted theory that the flu virus mutated by consuming bats in wet markets of China.

Coronavirus outbreak is fundamentally the failing of highly commercialized medical science. Billions of dollars are invested in Big Pharma. But for what purpose, to make skin care products and aphrodisiacs, for performing needless cosmetic surgeries; and hundreds of billions are spent on manufacturing state-of-the-art weapon system as deterrence against adversaries. Yet no preparations were made for dealing with a contingency as catastrophic as a pandemic. That’s criminal negligence, and we have nobody to blame but the capitalist social order and commercialization of essential public services.

Even though corporate media promptly declared Trump’s “drug of choice” antimalarial chloroquine for treating a viral infection to be a hoax, its own prescriptions fared no better than placebos. For instance, dexamethasone would be as effective against coronavirus infections as it is in treating arthritis. Competent orthopedics seldom prescribe it because it’s a steroidal drug having more adverse effects than therapeutic ones. Apparently, the manufacturers of remdesivir and dexamethasone in Big Pharma paid millions of dollars bribes to the mainstream media to market the drugs, which in turn is inclined to sensationalize any news story pertaining to COVID-19.

The only remedy that has proved effective in treating COVID-19 thus far has been convalescent plasma therapy. Plasma therapy works on the principle that antibodies contained in the blood of previously infected person would provide resistance against infection through transfusion of convalescent plasma into a COVID-19 patient’s circulatory system.

Thus, it basically works on the same principle that vaccination does, though plasma therapy would be classified as therapeutic vaccine instead of more common prophylactic ones for treating widespread epidemics. A word of caution, though, it should only be used in severe cases of COVID-19 as prescribed by physicians. Because the treatment is still in experimental stages and antibodies could prove potentially harmful in patients with mild symptoms of the disease.

Globally, the leading causes of 56 million deaths every year are: 15 million deaths from heart diseases and strokes; 5 million from lung diseases; 2 million from dementias; 1.5 million from diabetes; over a million each from diarrhea, tuberculosis and AIDS; and 1.5 million deaths in road traffic accidents. In comparison, coronavirus pandemic has claimed less than a million lives thus far but is getting undue media coverage due to politicization of the pandemic debate.

Mounting evidence of COVID-19 reinfection

Henry Hakamaki

The author is an American working as a graduate immunobiology researcher in Germany.

Recently released research indicated that surviving COVID-19 may not confer long-lasting immunity, although there is conflicting data. Perhaps most notable are the studies that have showed a drop-off of neutralizing antibodies in circulation after just a couple of months post-COVID infection (which is in line with most seasonal coronaviruses, where immunity doesn’t last long at all).

Some newer studies, however, have shown that despite an early drop-off, the decrease then levels out after the initial drop and we still maintain relatively high levels of neutralizing antibodies which would indicate that perhaps immunity would be longer lasting than we were first fearing it may be (perhaps on the order of a couple of years, as long-term antibody studies in SARS-1 have indicated).

It is important to determine whether or not reinfections are occurring and over how short a period of time. Up to the present, we’ve seen a few cases (primarily in health care workers) of where people have tested positive for COVID using the RT-PCR test, then clear the infection, and after a little while test positive again.

These isolated cases, however, have not been confirmed reinfections, because the RT-PCR test is looking for viral RNA and not live virus in the system. While live virus would lead to viral RNA being present (which is why this test works really well for active infections), sometimes it picks up some viral “junk” after the infection has passed.

Let’s think of it this way: our immune system, over the course of its response, totally destroyed all the viral particles in our body, leaving viral debris in its wake. Some of this debris is the RNA from the virus itself, and it’s possible for this RNA to be maintained in our system for some time after the virus itself is destroyed. Since the people who tested positive the second time were asymptomatic, it was just assumed that it was in fact simply junk that was being picked up by the test the second time.

Now, however, the story changes. We have several cases that have turned up in the last week where people who have tested positive a second time have had the viral RNA from their first and second positive tests sequenced, and there was enough genetic variation between the two RNA samples to convince the researchers that it was in fact a new infection the second time around.

When viruses travel through a population, they pick up tiny mutations along the way. By sequencing the viral genetic information, we can track these mutations, and therefore find when a specific sample was from, based on how many of the mutations it had.

You can think of it this way (though this is incredibly oversimplified for illustration purposes): for each 10 people a virus infects, it picks up on average one mutation. Then, after 10,000 people have been infected, we will have approximately 1,000 mutations. Therefore, if we take a sample of the viral RNA in someone’s system, and find that it had 600 mutations from the original virus, that means that the person had been infected around the time that the 6,000th person had been infected. Of course, it’s way more complex than this, but the point is simply that we can look for these mutations to determine whether it’s the same virus, or if it came from a different stage in the virus’s development.

We now have cases in Hong Kong (set to be published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, as of now only excerpts are available of the study: Belgium and the Netherlands, and La Crosse, Wisconsin, of individuals who had sequencing done on both their first and second positive tests and sufficient differences were found where it is more than likely that these were cases of reinfections occurring. The cases have been mild, but these reinfections have occurred three to six months after their initial infection.

While these are isolated cases, and a lot more sequencing will have to be done on other individuals who are testing positive more than once, this is certainly not a good sign. While it is certainly possible that the majority of people will maintain antibodies to a level sufficient for protection from subsequent infections after a first infection (or potential vaccination), it now appears that at least some number of people will be susceptible again to infection shortly after their initial infection. This throws into question even more the possibility of generating “herd immunity,” producing high levels of the population being immune to SARS-CoV-2, even with a vaccination.

Meanwhile, another new preprint was just released today that, frankly, is even more worrying than the earlier cases discussed. This new paper, released as a preprint from The Lancet , looks at a case study of a likely reinfection in Nevada. The individual, a 25-year-old, had originally been infected in April, tested positive for COVID, and presented with a sore throat, cough, headache, nausea, and diarrhea. After nine days, the symptoms had resolved, and two tests, conducted 12 and 29 days after symptom resolution, both came back negative, indicating the infection had been cleared.

However, 31 days after the symptoms had abated initially, the individual began to experience symptoms again, and was hospitalized two days later. Within a week, the symptoms had escalated to hypoxia (low oxygen levels) and atypical pneumonia, requiring emergency supplemental oxygen. When retested, the individual tested positive for COVID.

Importantly, a sample from the initial test in April, and a sample from this later test in June were both sequenced genetically. Once sequencing was completed, mutations between the two samples were mapped, and it was determined that the two samples had enough mutations between them that it was almost certainly two separate infections that took place.

The two main things to note here is that the second infection was significantly MORE severe than the initial infection, which is something that we had not seen in the previous cases of likely reinfection, and that the time between initial infection and reinfection was only 48 days.

We haven’t seen direct evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of SARS-CoV-2 yet (which is where a low level of antibodies actually aids viral entry into cells and makes the infection much worse), but we do have some evidence of ADE occurring in SARS-CoV-1, the closest related virus to the causative agent of COVID-19, leading to more severe illness and acute lung injury when low levels of antibodies are present due to vaccination of animal models.

This evidence not only complicates the picture in regards to “herd immunity,” but potentially even complicates the vaccine development process. This demonstrates once again that proper public health measures would have been far more rational if they sought to understand the science of the virus rather than looking for biomolecular “silver bullets.”