COVID-19 cases surge in South Korea

Ben McGrath

COVID-19 is continuing to run rampant throughout South Korea amid false, official declarations paralleling governments around the world that the pandemic is over. Confirmed cases have grown by the tens of thousands daily in recent weeks while the government offers nothing to stop the spread of the dangerous yet preventable disease.

Travelers walk outside of a COVID-19 testing center at the Incheon International Airport In South Korea. [AP Photo/Lee Jin-man]

Health officials confirmed 64,155 new COVID cases on August 2, the highest daily total in seven months, while the daily average between August 1 and 7 reached 50,388. An average of 14 people died each day over the same period. Cases are expected to rise to 76,000 by mid-August. Before this latest surge in July, daily cases had been fluctuating between 15,000 and 20,000 for much of May and June.

The responsibility for the surge lies with the right-wing Yoon Suk-yeol government, which has pushed the lie that pandemic is over, removed nearly all mask requirements and encouraged people to resume normal activities without regard for public health. Currently, the dominant COVID strain in South Korea is the XBB 1.5 variant, which has a higher capability to evade any immunity that people have built up from vaccines or previous infections.

Amid this latest surge, the government intended to downgrade the status of COVID-19 from a Class 2 to a Class 4 disease, the country’s lowest category. This would have meant the lifting of the few remaining mask requirements in high-risk areas such as hospitals while the recording of total COVID daily case figures would have been largely eliminated. In addition, the government would have withdrawn financial support from all those receiving inpatient care, limiting it only to those critically ill.

On August 7, however, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) announced that the reclassification of COVID would be put on hold. “We need to strengthen monitoring as the number of new daily infections has risen for six straight weeks,” an agency official stated. “We will come up with new schedules after reviewing the epidemic and disease control situations and collecting advice from experts.”

This does not represent a reconsideration, let alone a reversal, of the government’s abandonment of basic health measures. KDCA Commissioner Ji Yeong-mi stated on August 2, “Now that the number of patients who have tested positive for Covid-19 is increasing, we ask that people voluntarily wear masks again in crowded places such as public facilities and mass transportation.” This is both a confirmation that masks are needed to halt COVID-19 and the refusal of the government to reimplement even basic safety measures by requiring masks in public.

From the beginning of the pandemic, mitigation measures to halt the spread of COVID had widespread support among the population. Nearly the entire population wore masks, refrained from travel and stayed home more often. However, unending propaganda claiming the pandemic is over, plus the government’s refusal to address the pandemic, has generated fatalism among many who feel there is no solution in sight.

The tearing up of mitigation measures began under previous President Moon Jae-in, a Democrat, who initiated the “with COVID” era in November 2021, claiming it was possible to live with the deadly virus. When President Yoon of the People Power Party came to office, he continued eliminating measures to halt the spread of COVID-19.

Embraced by the entire political establishment, this was done to promote big business. This included encouraging people to resume pre-pandemic activities like eating out and travelling, while also encouraging tourism from overseas as companies attempt to boost profits and reverse a travel deficit. In the first quarter of this year, the deficit for the South Korean travel industry, which comprises a large share of the service sector, reached $3.24 billion.

Similarly, in spite of the pandemic and with complete disregard for safety, South Korea also recently hosted the 25th World Scout Jamboree, beginning August 1 and ending early on Tuesday. The organization of the event was a disaster. Attended by more than 43,000 teenagers from around the globe, participants faced a COVID outbreak, a heat wave, poor facilities and a lack of medical care.

The jamboree was seen as a chance for Seoul to showcase its ability to put on a large event, hoping to have Busan selected as the host for the 2030 World Expo. According to the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the World Expo could generate up to 61 trillion won ($US46.4 billion) for businesses.

These are the real considerations of all the COVID minimizers and deniers in South Korea and around the world. However, COVID is not simply another type of flu or common cold. Throughout all of 2022, excess deaths in South Korea rose 16.4 percent over the maximum from the previous three years, according to Statistics Korea. While Statistics Korea attempted to downplay this figure, the spike in deaths last year corresponded directly with the surge that took place in winter and spring when daily cases surpassed 620,000. Subsequent rises in deaths also correspond to new waves of COVID.

In addition, Long COVID is having a serious impact on the quality of life of those who develop it. A recent study in the Lancet medical journal found that many of those with Long COVID still suffered the effects two years after being infected with COVID-19.

For the moment, hospitals are required to report all positive COVID-19 cases, with figures released on a weekly basis. The current approach, even with the delay in reporting, provides a more realistic picture of the ongoing pandemic compared to countries like the United States where counting and tracing has stopped. After the disease is downgraded, this will no longer be the case, with samples taken from designated facilities rather than tracking all positive infections.

The real figure of positive cases is almost certainly much higher, with as many as one-third of people with COVID symptoms not getting tested, according to a Seoul National University survey published in July. In addition, as there is no required quarantine for those infected aside from a “recommended” five-day isolation period, as COVID spreads, the lack of tracking and mitigation measures means not only can the virus spread uncontrolled but health officials and the public will be blind to the true state of affairs.

Chinese deflation and economic slowdown brings political clampdown

Nick Beams

The worsening position of the Chinese economy, most graphically revealed in a slowdown in growth, the development of a deflationary environment and lower business and consumer confidence, appears to be having a political impact.

China's exports plunged by 14.5 percent in July compared with a year earlier. [AP Photo/Andy Wong]

This week the Financial Times reported that Chinese authorities were putting pressure on economists and others, including media outlets, to avoid discussion of negative economic developments.

The pressure is coming from the highest levels of the official economic establishment. Data issued last month showed that China’s producer price index had declined for eight straight months since last October while annual consumer price inflation hit a two-year low in June.

Economists at the financial conglomerate Citigroup said core goods prices, which strip out food and energy costs, had entered a “deflationary zone” because of weakening consumer demand.

However, authorities are having none of it. According to a statement last month by Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics: “Deflation does not and will not exist in China.”

This bureaucratic directive is being translated into action, according to the FT.

“Multiple local brokerage analysts and researchers at leading universities,” it reported, “as well as at state-run think-tanks said they had been instructed by their regulators, their employers and even domestic media outlets to avoid speaking negatively about topics ranging from fears of capital flight to softening prices.”

An adviser to the central bank told the FT there was pressure to present economic news positively. “The regulator doesn’t want to hear negative comments about the economy in public. They wanted us to interpret bad news from a positive light.”

The bad news is growing. The official view was that after COVID safety measures were scrapped at the end of last year, the economy would rebound quickly. Yet, after a brief uptick at the start of the year, major economic indexes have turned down.

Yesterday official data revealed that exports in July had declined by 14.5 percent in dollar terms year-on-year while imports dropped by 12.4 percent.

Data released last month showed gross domestic product expanded by only 0.8 percent in the June quarter as compared to the previous three months. Last month, the Politburo of the ruling Chinese Communist party declared that the economic recovery was making “tortuous progress.”

A recent Wall Street Journal report noted three major areas of concern.

Manufacturing is slowing with the Caixin purchasing manufacturers index dropping to 49.2 in July, its lowest level for six months, with 50 the boundary between expansion and contraction.

Home sales, a mainstay of the Chinese economy, continue to be weak with the country’s 100 largest developers reporting the lowest sales in July for three years.

Moreover, continuing deflation “could cause serious damage to the economy” if consumers try to save more in the expectation their money will be worth more in the future.

China has long been a producer of cheap consumer goods, but this area of the economy is being hit hard.

A survey of the economy by the FT pointed to the difficulties of the Feng Tait Footwear company, which exemplified “the difficulties faced by low technology manufacturers.”

“Prior to the pandemic it sold some 5 million pairs of shoes to clients such as Walmart and Target. This year it will do well to sell 3 million. Orders for the second half of the year—typically filled by July—are down at least a third compared with last year.”

The chief executive of the company, which has 10 plants across China, described the sector as in “misery” and “basically at a standstill” with workers sometimes not even completing their full-time hours.

One of the chief factors at work in the downturn is the slump in the real estate and property development sector which began in 2021 following government action to try to curb the growth of debt. Last June home sales recorded an 18 percent drop from a year earlier and residential construction was down by 10 percent.

An article in Bloomberg noted: “That’s a big drag on growth given the property sector, together with related activities such as the production of steel and home furnishings, accounts for one-fifth of GDP. Sizable declines in Chinese exports to Europe and the US also weighed on the second-quarter number.”

The only “bright side,” it said was the increase in services spending with spending in bars and restaurants jumping by 20 percent. But this is not going to bring a recovery in the rest of the economy.

“Every China recovery for the past 20 years,” the article continued, “has been driven partly by a boom in home building—yet not this time. The anomaly explains why confidence is flagging among both businesses and consumers: it’s hard to be convinced that the economy is healthy while the housing market remains in the doldrums, since experience suggests that’s a sign of economic malaise.”

Parallels are being drawn between China and Japan when the collapse of the Japanese real estate and share market bubble at the beginning of the 1990s led to the deflation and lower growth that has continued to this day.

The eyes of business chiefs, economists, pundits, and analysts have turned to the government looking for a possible response.

In a note to clients last month, economists at the London-based Capital Economics said: “Looking forward, policy support is needed to prevent China’s economy from slipping into a recession.

“Unless concrete support is rolled out soon, the recent downturn in demand risks becoming self-reinforcing.”

So far, however, there is little movement from Beijing. A 31-point plan issued in July, which sought to boost business sentiment, was regarded as being limited in scope.

In previous times, the government would have intervened with a stimulus package to boost the economy, but this has not eventuated with only hints of more support.

“So far, that has not translated into the sort of sizable fiscal policy stimulus many in the market have become used to expecting,” Robert Carnell, an economist at the financial firm ING told the WSJ. “We don’t think it is coming.”

There are a number of reasons for this. The government is reluctant to provide a boost to the all-important property sector because to do so runs the risk of creating still more debt.

It is also fearful of lowering interest rates and expanding credit—measures that have been used in the past—because that risks sending down the value of the currency, the yuan, leading to the movement of finance out of China.

The clampdown on “negative” economic commentary is an expression of one of the central problems facing the Xi Jinping regime. Having long ago abandoned the goal of social equality, it rules on behalf of a capitalist oligarchy and has only retained political support because of its ability in the past to provide economic growth and improvements in living standards.

That capacity is now being called into question, especially among young people. The unemployment rate for urban youth aged between 16 and 24, many of them college and university graduates, is running at a record 21.3 percent after a steady rise in the past months.

The hidden COVID-19 wave and the destruction of public health

Evan Blake & Benjamin Mateus

In recent weeks it has become clear that the United States, as well as Italy, Japan, Britain, Spain and other countries throughout the world are undergoing a significant new surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is taking place with virtually no public awareness, reporting in the corporate media or communication from government officials.

As schools reopen globally in the coming weeks after summer or winter break, hundreds of millions of children will be packed into overcrowded, poorly ventilated classrooms, deepening the current wave while society remains totally unprepared.

The following data points for the US demonstrate the reality of the ongoing surge:

• Over the past six weeks, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater has risen by 114 percent, according to Biobot Analytics. Infectious disease modeler JP Weiland estimates that this translates to roughly 419,000 Americans now being infected with COVID-19 each day and roughly 4.2 million Americans in total currently infected with the virus.
• CDC data shows that over the past month COVID-19 hospitalizations have climbed from 6,450 to 9,056 admissions per week, an increase of 40 percent.
• The Walgreens COVID-19 index now shows a nationwide positivity rate of 44.7 percent, the highest rate since the start of the pandemic. While testing is down dramatically, this elevated figure is a clear sign that a surge is underway. Southern and Southwestern states like Florida, Alabama, Texas, New Mexico, Nevada and California are most impacted, likely due to the heat wave driving people indoors, with test positivity rates above 50 percent in each state.

US COVID-19 projections as of August 1, 2023. [Photo: JP Weiland]

Scientists are forced to estimate the spread of COVID-19 by sampling wastewater and tracking hospitalizations because the federal government has stopped counting the number of COVID-19 cases.

This is the first wave of the pandemic since the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Biden administration ended their COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) declarations in early May, which prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health agencies globally to stop reporting COVID-19 infections altogether.

The total lack of data has been accompanied by a media blackout. With no data or reporting, the public largely gets its information about the spread of COVID-19 on the basis of how many people they know who are ill.

Some of the most basic facets of public health—testing, contact tracing and reporting of disease outbreaks—have been systematically dismantled.

Testing, treatments and vaccines are being completely privatized and sold at marked-up prices that are unaffordable for the vast majority of the population. Under the private market, updated vaccines will not be available in the US until October at the earliest—well after the current surge—and later or never throughout the rest of the world.

Whatever limited media coverage or official statements are made on the present wave of the pandemic, they all seek to downplay its significance. In particular, there is a concerted effort to ignore the scientifically proven aftereffects of COVID-19 infections, including prolonged symptoms known as Long COVID and increased risk of medical emergencies, such as heart attacks and strokes, which are rarely recorded as official COVID-19 deaths.

Among the most alarming recent findings include:

• A preprint study published in June found that SARS-CoV-2 can attack the vagus nerve, potentially the source of many Long COVID neurological symptoms, as well as shortness of breath.
• COVID-19 infection has been linked to increased risk of heart attack for all ages. A study published last September found a staggering 30 percent increase in heart attacks among those between 25 and 44 years old during the first two years of the pandemic. Dr. Susan Cheng, a co-author of the study, remarked, “Young people are obviously not really supposed to die of heart attack. They’re not really supposed to have heart attacks at all.”

• A review published last month in Nature estimated that roughly “400 million individuals globally are in need of support for Long COVID.” The authors concluded, “The oncoming burden of Long COVID faced by patients, health-care providers, governments and economies is so large as to be unfathomable.”

Multiple studies have shown that all the risks associated with COVID-19 infections are compounded with each reinfection. In fact, one of the most concerning features of the current surge is that it is taking place under conditions in which virtually the entire population has either previously been infected with COVID-19 or is fully vaccinated. In other words, over 400,000 Americans and millions more globally are presently suffering breakthrough infections or reinfections each day.

Meanwhile, viral evolution continues unabated, with SARS-CoV-2 changing constantly by finding more innovative ways to replicate throughout the global population. The present wave of the pandemic is being driven in part by the Omicron EG.5 variant, nicknamed “Eris” by scientists. It accounts for over 35 percent of all sequenced cases globally and is now the most prevalent variant in the US and other countries. It is a descendent of the Omicron XBB recombinant variants, which have been dominant globally since last winter.

One of the key mutations of Eris is attributable to the use of monoclonal antibodies, as predicted by scientists months ago. Scientists are now monitoring another mutation, with the combination of both mutations showing increased immune-evasion and producing more severe infections. This combination, referred to as “FLip,” is most prevalent in Spain and Brazil, with the former seeing a rapid spike in cases in recent weeks.

Noted immunologist Yunlong Richard Cao recently explained that the recent evolutionary change “is a very smart move by the virus.” He predicted that this winter there will be further mutations that allow the virus to more easily infect those who have been vaccinated.

These developments raise significant concerns about the future trajectory of the pandemic. In effect, global society is being forced to accept the premise that a dangerous, highly transmissible and rapidly evolving coronavirus will kill millions each year and must simply be endured. Never before in modern history has there been such a level of sheer indifference to what continues to be a huge public health disaster.

As bad as the response was in 2020, at that time governments were forced to implement limited public health measures. Now, in the worst case scenario in which a far more dangerous variant evolves with total immune-escape, a higher fatality ratio and greater infectivity, one must assume that the response of world governments would be to do nothing. The capitalists are determined to never go back to the prior era of public health.

While trillions are squandered on war and bank bailouts, virtually no funding whatsoever is allocated to public health or social infrastructure necessary to prevent disease transmission, treat affected patients or develop more advanced vaccines and therapeutics. The trade union bureaucracies, firmly integrated into the capitalist state, play the essential role in suppressing the class struggle, allowing the corporations to get away with social murder.

Movies That Matter Grants 2023

APPLICATION DEADLINE:

3rd September 2023 midnight CEST.

TELL ME ABOUT AWARD:

We offer a start-up grant for new human rights film events and an impact grant for existing events that want to increase their impact or want to add new activities to their programmes. These events can take various forms, such as human rights film festivals, LGBTI film festivals and mobile cinema projects. Please note that we don’t finance film productions. You can find an overview of possible resources for film production here. Please check our criteria & regulations for applying. Movies that Matter judges every project on its individual quality.

WHICH FIELDS ARE ELIGIBLE?

• These events can take various forms, such as human rights film festivals, LGBTI film festivals and mobile cinema projects. 
• Please note that we don’t finance film productions. 
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Grants

WHO CAN APPLY?

• Film screenings will contribute to awareness and discussion about human rights in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Middle East or Eastern Europe.
• The project takes place in one of the countries mentioned on the DAC List of ODA recipients, where human rights and press freedom are at stake. Priority is given to projects in low-income countries, e.g. in Africa.
• Movies that Matter values films with high cinematic quality.
• Movies that Matter prefers films that are independently produced. Screenings of educational films, campaign films or NGO outreach films are not supported.
• Film and discussion programmes should also appeal and involve less privileged or less educated audiences.
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• Applications for an impact grant should explain how the grant will contribute to new developments or to increasing the impact of a project.
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COVID variants drive UK summer infection wave

Steve James

Indications of new waves of COVID-19 infections are emerging in the UK this summer, fueled by new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes the disease.

According to the ZOE Health Study which encourages smart phone users to submit health reports, 52,375 symptomatic COVID cases were reported on August 3, leading to a prediction of as many as 805,411 current symptomatic cases in the UK. In all some 4,817,218 users contribute to ZOE's data.

The ZOE app [Photo: screenshot: covid.joinzoe.com]

Most cases are currently being reported from Suffolk and Leicestershire, while a few days ago the South West and Wales were reporting the highest figures. The ZOE figures record a 30 percent increase in cases since early July, although overall figures remain, thus far, much lower than during the Omicron surge last year, which peaked at over 3.8 million cases.

Testifying to the demolition of systemic community wide testing, the Conservative government's own dashboard for England alone reported a far lower figure of 4,076 new cases in the week to July 29, an increase of 27.8 percent. The dashboard reported 1,438 hospital admissions, an increase of 40 percent. The latest weekly figures for deaths record 63, a reduction of 22 percent, but this dated from the week to July 7. In Scotland, in the week to July 30, there were 118 admissions, and five deaths up to July 8. In Wales, there were 44 hospitalisations and another 69 cases acquired in hospital. Three patients are in critical care.

According to Worldometers, there have been 228,429 deaths from COVID in Britain.

Christina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, commenting on the implications of testing failures, told the Guardian that Britain was nearly “flying blind.” Pagel warned that a new wave of infection appeared to be underway, and that this might accelerate into the autumn.

Pagel called for the re-introduction of high-quality masks in healthcare settings along with re-establishing a nationwide infection survey. Failing that, wastewater testing, also suspended, should be restored. Pagel expressed alarm over “a repeat of the last winter NHS [National Health Service] crisis this winter again, with COVID, flu and RSV [respiratory syncytial virus] all hitting around the same time.”

Wastewater testing, rolled out by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), sampled untreated sewage three times a week from over 300 treatment works in England. Similar programmes were established in Scotland and Wales, searching for fragments of coronavirus DNA released in faeces, thus giving a broad indicator of COVID-19 levels in the population. In an act designed solely to suppress public knowledge of infection levels, particularly advance warning of emerging infection waves, the UK government ended sampling in 2022. Some level of sampling is continuing in Wales and Scotland.

Epidemiologist professor, Rowland Kao of Edinburgh University, commented in the same article on the significance of the deliberate collapse in surveillance. “With seasonal flu, we have of course a certain amount of predictability with the many years of data. However, with Covid, now that we don’t have those multiple data streams to rely on, it’s harder to say what is happening.”

Kao explained that COVID-19 was not following simple seasonal patterns and that the timing and impact of COVID variants was unknown.

Currently there are two emerging Omicron variants in the UK, accounting for nearly half of all UK cases—Eris and Arcturus. Eris, or EG.5.1, was first monitored in Asia, early July this year. In the UK it was classified as a variant July 10, by which time it was accounting for 11.8 percent of cases. That figure has increased to 14.6 percent. Arcturus emerged in April and now causes 39.4 percent of infections.

Thus far, Eris has not raised concerns to the level generated by Omicron. Eris is currently classed by the World Health Organisation as a “variant under monitoring”, as opposed to a “variant of concern.” Speaking to the Guardian, Imperial College London's Danny Altmann warned of the growing period since most people were vaccinated “The immune-evasion mutations continue to emerge and cross-protection is looking ever more precarious. Meanwhile, immunity beyond one-year wanes appreciably.”

A further indication of an emerging UK wave, and broad public concern, is the rapid growth in the sales of lateral flow test kits from pharmacies. Boots reported sales increased 33 percent in the week to July 22, compared with the previous three weeks. Boots charge £9.85 for tests that were formerly provided free of charge, Lloyds sell individual tests for £1.89. PCR swab tests, also formerly free, cost £62.00 from Boots, £67.00 from Lloyds—devastating costs for working class households amid a surge in the cost of living.

Further variants continue to emerge. Last month, the Daily Mail reported a mutation of the virus, taken from a patient swab in Indonesia, with 113 unique mutations. 37 of these were reported to affect the spike protein, which is central to SARS-COV-2's high rate of transmission. The spike protein is also the target of most of the vaccines developed, giving rise to further concerns of reduced vaccine efficacy. It is not known whether this mutation poses a threat, but the emergence of countless variants is unavoidable given the vast level of infection worldwide, driven by the calculated indifference of the capitalist class.

Commenting on the current wave in the UK, Leeds University professor of virology Stephen Griffin said that while numbers seem to be rising less quickly than previous waves the low level of testing means that this is difficult to confirm. He warned, “More infections will also mean more Long Covid, which remains a massive concern and yet is often overlooked when factoring the impact of infection waves.”

A Long Covid study published July 21 in The Lancet by King's College London which explored the impact of Covid on brain function found that “deficits following SARS-CoV-2 infection were detectable nearly two years post infection, and [were] largest for individuals with longer symptom durations, ongoing symptoms, and/or more severe infection.” Tests employed measured memory, attention, reasoning, processing speed, and motor control.

The study, carried out in 2021, found people with Covid-19 infections recorded lower cognitive scores, particularly if symptoms had persisted for over 12 weeks. The impact was described as “comparable in scale to the effect of presentation to hospital during illness, an increase in age of approximately 10 years, or exhibiting mild or moderate symptoms of psychological distress”. The tests were performed on 3,335 people who had been infected by SARS-CoV-2.

As many as 1.9 million people, 2.9 percent of the population, were reporting some level of Long COVID symptoms, as of March 2023 according the UK's Office of National Statistics. Described as “symptoms continuing for more than four weeks after the first confirmed or suspected coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were not explained by something else”, fatigue, muscle ache and shortness of breath were most reported.

The spread of the disease in Britain, in the fourth year of the pandemic, is mirrored in other countries, including the United States—with data showing that the level of SARS-CoV-2 viral particles in wastewater across the US has risen by 125 percent over the past six weeks—and Australia, which has seen a marked spike in deaths in recent months.

These development refute government lies that COVID-19 is nothing to worry about, is now “endemic” and equivalent to the cold or flu. All evidence points to the deadly virus continuing to mutate rapidly, more than twice as fast as the common flu. New variants that can bypass prior immunity threaten to unleash repeated waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

West African states to hold Thursday summit on Niger intervention

Thomas Scripps

Niger and the wider West African region are teetering on the brink of war.

Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum was deposed in a military coup led by the chief of his presidential guard Abdourahamane Tchiani on July 26. After a deadline for Bazoum’s reinstatement set down by the Economic Community of West African States expired Sunday, ECOWAS announced a summit to be held in the Nigerian capital Abuja this Thursday.

The defense chiefs from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries excluding Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea and Niger, pose for a group photo during their extraordinary meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, August 4, 2023, to discuss the situation in Niger. [AP Photo/Chinedu Asadu]

Nigeria, on Niger’s southern border, dominates the union, with 230 million of its total 400 million population, 250,000 soldiers and 35 combat aircraft. Together with Senegal and the Ivory Coast, its government has indicated it would send troops if agreed.

While Nigeria’s Senate voted not to approve a military intervention, a similar vote did not stop then-President Muhammadu Buhari from deploying troops to The Gambia in 2017 to remove President Yahya Jammeh—after he refused to hand over power to Adama Barrow. Nigeria has also led major interventions in Liberia in 1992 and Sierra Leone in 1997.

ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security Abdel-Fatau Musah warned Friday, “All the elements that will go into any eventual intervention have been worked out.” He continued, “We are determined to stop it, but ECOWAS is not going to tell the coup plotters when and where we are going to strike.”

The military leaders in Niger have closed the country’s airspace, “In the face of the threat of intervention that is becoming more apparent.” They warned that any violation would meet “an energetic and instant response.”

A spokesperson declared that two African countries had already begun deploying forces, adding, “Niger’s armed forces and all our defence and security forces, backed by the unfailing support of our people, are ready to defend the integrity of our territory.” The country has 25,000 soldiers in its armed forces, and two combat aircraft.

The coup leaders in Niger are supported by the regimes on its Western border in Mali and Burkina Faso—products of military coups in May 2021 and September 2022—which have said they will treat an ECOWAS invasion of Niger as a declaration of war against them. The two countries sent a delegation to the Nigerien capital Niamey on Monday, to demonstrate their “solidarity… with the brotherly people of Niger,” according to the Malian army.

Guinea, run by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya as interim president following a coup in September 2021, has also backed Niger.

Algeria and Chad, both large countries with significant military forces, bordering Niger to the North and East, have declared against military action and said they would not intervene. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune described any war as a “direct threat to Algeria.”

West Africa [Photo by PirateShip6 / CC BY-SA 4.0]

ECOWAS has already imposed sanctions on Niger, suspending all commercial transactions, freezing its state assets, suspending financial assistance through regional development banks and cutting electricity supply, leading to blackouts.

The imperialist powers, including France, Germany, the UK, and the European Union have suspended aid payments. These measures are a humanitarian time bomb in a country where 40 percent of the government budget is provided by international aid.

France, the former colonial power in Niger, has been the most aggressive. Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna met Nigerian Prime Minister Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou in Paris on Saturday before declaring, “France supports with firmness and determination the efforts of ECOWAS to defeat this coup attempt.” She left unsaid whether this would include French military support.

Italy and Germany have been more cautious. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told La Stampa Monday, “The only way is the diplomatic one.” Annalena Baerbock, German Minister of Foreign Affairs, “welcome[d] the mediation efforts.”

There are major interests at stake—most importantly the supply of and profits from crucial energy commodities, and the policing of African migration to Europe.

Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium, Europe’s second largest supplier (at 25 percent) after Kazakhstan. Its other major exports include gold and, locally, petroleum.

This wealth is controlled by foreign companies. The SOMAIR, COMINAK and Imouraren uranium mines are majority owned by French interests, the SOMINA uranium mine, Agadem Basin oil wells and SORAZ refinery by Chinese, and the Samira Hill Gold Mine by Canadian.

None of the profits generated make their way back to the Nigerien population. The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio was just 9.8 percent in 2022—the OECD average is 34 percent. Massive tax exemptions for the extractive industries mean that Niger’s uranium production contributes a mere 4-6 percent to its government revenue.

Much of this is in any case spent on “security” on behalf of the European powers. Niger is considered central to what the European Union’s former special representative for the Sahel Ángel Losada called “Europe’s new forward border.” Its northern town and region of Agadez is considered the gateway to the Sahara, and a major staging point for journeys to the North African coast and on to Europe.

Hundreds of millions of euros have been spent by the EU employing the Nigerien military and police as pre-emptive border guards. It sponsored Law 2015—36 cracking down on migration through the country which has caused immense disruption to patterns of social and economic life in the region and fueled a dramatic growth in illegal smuggling.

Italy and Germany, two of the European powers most involved in policing migration across the Mediterranean, are worried a major conflict would blow up these arrangements and drive huge numbers to seek asylum in Europe. It would also undermine Italy’s “Mattei Plan” for sourcing more of its energy from Africa, already involving major deals with Algeria and Libya and discussions with Congo-Brazzaville, Angola, and Mozambique.

For Niger, exploitation and “securitization” have contributed to a social catastrophe. Over 40 percent of the population live on less than $1.90 a day, with nearly 20 percent requiring humanitarian assistance. Over 3 million people suffer acute food shortages. More than 40 percent of children aged 5-14 are labouring.

These conditions, combined with an influx of NATO’s Islamist proxies used in the Libyan civil war to the Sahel, have fueled the growth of jihadist militias across the region, responsible for thousands of killings every year and hundreds of thousands of displacements.

Hostility to the government of Bazoum and his Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism which presided over this disaster, combined with opposition to the presence of now ousted French soldiers, will have contributed to the rally of 30,000 in support of the coup on Sunday.

But Tchiani is no more a solution to Niger’s problems than ECOWAS and the imperialist powers. None of the military takeovers in the region have done anything to improve the conditions of the population, whatever the anti-colonialist rhetoric deployed.

The task confronting the Nigerien working class and rural masses is to mobilize for the defeat of Tchiani and Bazoum and to reach out to their class brothers and sisters across West Africa, whose interests they share, to take up the same fight against their own ruling elites, rather than a fratricidal war.

In an already fragile society, any conflict between ECOWAS and Niger-Mali-Burkina Faso would have appalling consequences. Commenting on the prospect, Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Cameron Hudson told Foreign Policy, “If it’s not a bluff and they were to attempt to go through with this, there is no clean way that happens without massive civilian casualties and without the fear of a spreading regional conflict.”

NATO-backed anti-Putin oppositionist Navalny sentenced to additional 19 years in prison

Clara Weiss

On Friday, a Russian court extended the nine-year prison sentence for Alexei Navalny, the most prominent NATO-backed critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, by another 19 years. While his earlier sentence had been based on charges of bribery and contempt of court, the latest sentence was based on charges of “extremism”.

Daniel Kholodny, who worked as a technician for Navalny’s YouTube channel, also stood trial alongside Navalny and was sentenced to eight years in prison for organizing an extremist group. Navalny will have to serve the 19-year prison sentence in a maximum-security penal colony, reducing his ability to communicate with the outside world to almost zero. So far, Navalny had been able to continue to post political commentaries on his Telegram channel from prison. The trial proceedings were closed to the public as well as to his family members. 

Earlier last week, another court rejected the appeal of the 25-year prison sentence of Vladimir Kara-Murza, who had been sentenced for “treason” and defamation of the Russian armed forces. Like Navalny, Kara-Murza is a central figure in the NATO-backed opposition to the Putin regime and has extensive ties to the ruling elites in Washington.  

The sentencing of Navalny and Kholodny and rejection of the appeal for Kara-Murza come under conditions of a profound crisis of the Putin regime and infighting between warring factions of the state apparatus and ruling class. In late June, Evgeny Prigozhin, a billionaire mercenary-leader and long-time ally of Vladimir Putin, staged a coup attempt with an explicit appeal to the openly pro-NATO faction of the Russian oligarchy. Prigozhin and his Wagner troops have since been given carte blanche and appear to have been reintegrated into the regime. Wagner troops are still active in Africa on behalf of Russia and many of the troops are stationed in Belarus, a close ally of Russia. Prigozhin has been at a recent summit, hosted by the Kremlin with African leaders and diplomats, in St. Petersburg. 

While essentially giving Wagner carte blanche, however, the Kremlin has also begun arresting a series of prominent political figures. Among them was Igor Strel’kov, a former leader of the pro-Russian separatists in East Ukraine who has long called upon the Putin regime to impose a general mobilization. The Kremlin has also arrested Boris Kagarlitsky, a well-known leader of the pseudo-left and Stalinist milieu in Russia with long-standing ties to the oligarchy and state apparatus. Like Navalny, Stre’lkov and Kagarlitsky were also charged with “extremism”. 

The US and the EU were quick to denounce the sentencing of Navalny. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement, noting “The United States strongly condemns Russia’s conviction of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny on politically motivated charges. The Kremlin cannot silence the truth. Navalny should be released.” The EU also “strongly” condemned the ruling. The WSWS has noted in the past the nauseating hypocrisy of these denunciations of the Putin regime by the imperialist powers. US and European imperialism are not only responsible for the bombing of multiple countries over the past decades, resulting in the death and maiming of millions. Washington and Brussels have also brutally persecuted and unlawfully imprisoned the Australian journalist Julian Assange, whose conditions of detention amount to systematic physical and psychological torture.

There is no question that the ultimate target of the attacks on democratic rights, now leveraged most publicly against opponents of Putin within the state and oligarchy, will be the working class. In particular, the charges of “extremism” and “treason” that were used most recently against Navalny, Kara-Murza, Strel’kov and Kagarlitsky, are defined so broadly that they could easily be applied to genuinely left-wing and socialist opponents of the regime and the war in Ukraine. 

However, in order to develop their political opposition to the Putin regime from their independent class standpoint, workers and young people must have a clear understanding of the political forces involved in this escalating infighting within the Russian oligarchy.

Contrary to his depiction in the Western media, Navalny is neither a democratic nor a popular critic of the Putin regime. With his base of supporters limited to privileged layers of the upper middle class, Navalny’s political history is marked above all by his association with ultranationalist forces and sections of the ruling elites and state apparatus in both Russia and the US. He belonged to a rapacious and reckless layer of social climbers that tried to benefit from the 1991 destruction of the Soviet Union by the bureaucracy and the restoration of capitalism. He became involved in politics after his endeavors in banking and real estate had largely failed. In an early interview, he gave expression to his Social-Darwinistic views, stating, “I wanted a market economy in the most wicked form—the strongest survive, the rest are simply superfluous.”

Since 2010-2011, Navalny has been built up systematically by the Western media. At the time, he was a co-organizer of the far-right “Russian Marches”, and had released videos denouncing people from the North Caucasus as “cockroaches”. Navalny has also repeatedly called for a redrawing of the borders of Russia, without the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus. As the WSWS has documented, Navalny was built up by Washington and Berlin not despite but because of his ties to the far right.

Much as in Ukraine, where the descendants of the Nazi collaborators of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists have played a central role in the 2014 regime-change operation and the current war, the US-backed opposition in Russia has centrally involved far-right forces. They form a central component of the imperialist strategy to foment ethnic and national strife as part of the attempt to not only destabilize but also break up the country.

More recently, neo-Nazi forces with ties to the neofascist scene in Germany, as well as the Ukrainian regime and the NATO-backed opposition in Russia, were involved in incursions on Russian territory. Shortly after leading the most significant incursions to date, the neo-Nazi leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Nikitin, was interviewed on Navalny’s YouTube channel, with the interviewer being completely uncritical of Nikitin’s well-known and extensive ties in Europe’s neo-Nazi scene. 

In addition to his relations with the far right, Navalny has retained ties to sections of the Russian elites and state apparatus. Among his earliest backers were figures such as the economist Sergei Guriev, a former adviser of ex-president Dmitry Medvedev, and the former banker Vladimir Ashurkov, now a leading figure of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Fund, both of whom have long fled the country.

Navalny, like Kara-Murza or the ex-oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, thus speak for sections of the state and oligarchy that see in a complete line-up of Moscow behind geopolitical strategy of the US and in the break-up of the Russian Federation, the best means to advance their own economic interests in the exploitation of the raw material and social resources of the country. 

The ever-more draconian prison sentences handed down to prominent representatives of the NATO-backed opposition in the Russian state and oligarchy are indicative of intense conflicts and crises unfolding behind the walls of the Kremlin, as the war in Ukraine is now well into its second year and all previous calculations of the Putin regime to somehow force the imperialist powers to the negotiating table have disastrously backfired.