The Niger crisis and the global threat of war

Thomas Scripps

The impoverished West African state of Niger is the latest flashpoint in the struggle by the imperialist powers for a redivision of the world. The issues involved in the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine—a fight for territory, strategic resources and regime change—are erupting all over the globe, in China and Taiwan, and now in the Sahel region of Africa.

Though stalled for the moment, what would be a devastating war led by the most powerful country in the region, Nigeria, to oust the coup leaders in Niger and reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum is under active preparation. At a summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the Nigerian capital Abuja Thursday, leaders agreed to activate a standby military force and threatened that “no option had been taken off the table.”’

Omar Touray, left, president of the ECOWAS Commission, welcomes Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould El-Ghazouani , center, for the ECOWAS meeting in Abuja, Nigeria. Thursday, August 10, 2023. [AP Photo/Gbemiga Olamikan]

They agreed a new round of sanctions on Niger, which has been plunged into blackouts by electricity cut-offs and seen food prices rise 60 percent amid a blockade and the freezing of assets and trade.

A conflict would draw in the entire region. Senegal, Benin and the Ivory Coast have already pledged to send troops to aid Nigeria. Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea have declared for the military coup leaders in Niger.

Behind the proposed ECOWAS action stand the imperialist powers, who are intent on blocking Russia and China from further penetrating a continent whose strategic significance is growing rapidly. The long-term decline of France’s economic position in its former West African colonies—culminating in the last three years in a dramatic collapse of its military presence in Mali, Burkina Faso and now perhaps Niger—has thrown open the Sahel region to intense geopolitical competition.

Bazoum was considered an important Western ally. The US and the European powers have responded to the coup against him by cutting aid to Niger supposedly provided on “humanitarian” grounds—on which it relies for 40 percent of its annual government budget. They are determined to secure their interests whatever the cost.

Speaking Tuesday after “difficult” talks with the coup leaders, US Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland—veteran of the US-backed 2014 coup in Ukraine—threatened, “We’ll be watching the situation, but we understand our legal responsibilities and I explained those very clearly to the guys who were responsible for this and that it is not our desire to go there, but they may push us to that point.”

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Wednesday, February 1, 2023. [AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena]

Caution over a proposed military intervention by ECOWAS has centred on concerns that such action has not been properly prepared and would spark mass opposition throughout the region. A misjudged war could explode the social powder keg in Nigeria, where the US and Britain are heavily invested politically and economically.

A great deal is at stake. The United States currently has 1,500 soldiers of its 6,500-strong declared African deployment stationed in Niger across two bases—one of which is the regional hub for drone missions. France has 1,100 troops in the country, Italy 300 and Germany around 100.

Niger is a major uranium producer, providing a quarter of Europe’s supply. It is due to start exporting oil and plays a central role in policing migration out of Africa to Europe. It has become a frontline state in a battle for economic and military pre-eminence in West Africa and across the whole continent.

A uranium mine in Niger. [Photo by Korea Open Government License/Korea Aerospace Research Institute]

Africa is home to an estimated 30 percent of the world’s mineral wealth, including 90 percent of its chromium and platinum—crucial to the green energy transition. Another such mineral is cobalt, of which 70 percent of the world’s supply is produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo. By the end of the century, Africa could also account for a fifth of the world’s lithium supply.

The continent also produces 65 percent of the world’s diamonds and is home to 40 percent of its gold reserves, 12 percent of its oil and 8 percent of its natural gas, while Morocco alone is home to 75 percent of the world’s phosphate rock, crucial for fertiliser.

In terms of markets, Africa’s consumer expenditure is on track to grow from $1.4 trillion in 2015 to $2.5 trillion in 2030.

The US and Europe are concerned not to let Niger be another loss to the claims made by China and Russia on these riches and opportunities.

Russia’s Wagner group (headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin) is operating in Mali, to Niger’s immediate West, Libya, to its North East, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan—providing armed forces for their governments in conflicts with local rebel groups. In the CAR and Sudan, Wagner also runs private gold and diamond mines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated a Russia-Africa summit in 2019 promising to help push back against “an array of Western countries [that] are resorting to pressure, intimidation and blackmail of sovereign African governments.” The second, far less well attended, summit held under conditions of anti-Russian sanctions and the war in Ukraine, took place last month, where a special effort was made to court Burkina Faso’s “interim leader” Colonel Ibrahim Traoré.

Russia has sought to leverage its relatively meagre resources to gain allies and the occasional lucrative venture, but China is throwing enormous economic weight behind securing control of Africa’s resources markets. It has controlling stakes in large swathes of the continent’s mining industry—including the bulk of uranium mines in Niger, plus its oil industry—forming part of a total FDI (foreign direct investment) stock of $43.4 billion in 2020, a 100-fold increase in 17 years.

China is Africa’s largest bilateral lender, loaning $153 billion in the two decades to 2019, and its second largest trade partner after the European Union, bigger than any other single country.

Both Russia and China are also major arms suppliers to sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 26 and 18 percent of sales respectively in the last five years, above third-place France at 8 percent, and the US at 5 percent.

In 2019, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) launched a five-year plan to “deter” what it called “Chinese and Russian malign action.” Former head of AFRICOM, Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, told Congress that year that both were after “access and influence to our detriment” and that, within the decade, China could gain the capability to inhibit US military access and operations. The policy has remained unchanged since Trump’s Republicans were replaced by the Democrats under Biden.

Colin P. Clarke, former RAND analyst and current Director of Research at the global intelligence and security consultancy The Soufan Group, bluntly explained to Newsweek the implications of the Nigerien situation.

“This could take on the dimensions of a regional proxy war, with Western countries supporting ECOWAS and Russia supporting Niger—and Burkina Faso and Mali, if they joined in—with muscle from the Wagner Group.

“What’s happening in the Sahel is not a sideshow to great power competition, it is great power competition. The events unfolding are not doing so in a vacuum. The U.S., France, China, and Russia each have their own vested interests in Sahelian countries.”

Deaths of despair and suicides in the US at historic levels

Benjamin Mateus

Suicide and deaths of despair have reached historic levels in the United States, according to the latest data from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). There were a record high of 49,369 suicide deaths in 2022 alone and since 2011, nearly 540,000 individuals have been lost to suicide.

Two homeless people sleep in an alley in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. [AP Photo/Jae C. Hong]

For youths and young adults over ages 10 to 24 years the incidence of suicides in the US in the last two decades has risen from 6.9 per 100,000 to 11 per 100,000, or a harrowing increase of 60 percent. Although the incidence for preteens is much lower overall and has remained stable over the last three years, they are up three-fold from 2007. Since 2011, the percent change for suicide deaths for 12 to 17 has been highest compared to any older age category with a rise of 47.7 percent.

In 2020, suicide was listed as the twelfth leading cause of death overall in the US. Among youth and young adults, it ranked in the top four: it was second in those that were 10 to 14 and 25 to 34 age categories, third for those between 15 and 24, and fourth for individuals 35 to 44. For those between five and nine years of age, the CDC stated it was the tenth leading cause of death.

Suicide death rate per 100,000 population in 2021, age-adjusted [Photo: KFF analysis of CDC WONDER data]

Dr. Madhukar Trivedi, a professor of psychiatry at UT Southwestern Medical center, warned, “We have begun to see much more concerning data even for preteens. We were all along aware that as soon as 15 is a very high-risk period for teenagers, but I think 10- to 14-year-olds are also now beginning to show signs that we need to pay attention to.”

Much of the increase in suicides have been driven by firearm-related suicides, which account for nearly 27,000 of these cases, or nearly 55 percent. Many of the regions of the country with the highest rates of suicide rates are in the western part of the US. For instance, Montana and Wyoming have the highest age-adjusted rates at 32 and 32.3 suicides per 100,000.

Kaiser Family Foundation, analyzing the CDC’s WONDER data on the underlying causes of death, noted, “The suicide rate may vary by state due to factors such as demographics, firearm availability (involved in over half of suicides), mental health status, and access to mental health services.” They added, “While the exact cause for the rise in suicides in recent years is unknown, it may reflect, in part, increasing stressors and longstanding unmet mental health needs.”

The current incidence of suicide deaths for young adults and those older are similar, ranging from 17.3 suicides for those over 65 to 18.8 for those between 26 and 44. The implication here is that we are seeing a universal phenomenon affecting all of society. 

The epidemic of deaths by suicide is also coinciding with opioid overdose fatalities, which have also reached unprecedented levels. In 2022, close to 110,000 people died from illicit drug use or prescription opioids, up from 106,000 in 2021. The last two decades have seen a more than five-fold rise in such deaths. 

Number of deaths due to suicide, 2011 to 2022 [Photo: KFF analysis of CDC WONDER data]

Eight states—Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Nevada, Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, and Maine—and New York City have seen a more than 10 percent surge in overdose deaths. Washington state led the country with a 24 percent jump in such fatalities. 

Meanwhile, life insurance actuaries are finding that more people are continuing to die at alarming rates, even more than before the pandemic, that cannot be accounted for by COVID. For instance, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute found there was a 34 percent increase in deaths among working-aged people 35 to 44 in the last quarter of 2022. 

Many of them are working-aged people who are in the prime of their life who are suffering deaths from cardiac and neurological disorders that could be attributable to Long COVID and its complications that include anxiety, depression, and despair. However, the CDC and public health agencies are at a loss to explain these statistics, nor is there any apparent urgency on their part to get to the bottom of this crisis.

This phenomenon is not confined to the US. In the UK, deaths among 20- to 44-year-olds in the first quarter of 2023 were similar to the same time frame in 2021, at the peak of the COVID deaths, and above baselines for the years before the pandemic. In Australia, excess deaths in 2022 were 12 percent higher than previous years, with one-third of those deaths considered non-COVID-related. 

According to Our World in Data, under the heading of cumulative number of excess deaths in the last 12 months, as of May 21, 2023, the US had over 103,000, Germany had 83,000, France had 17,600, UK had 55,000, Brazil 60,000, Russia 72,000, and Italy 25,650. Given this number of deaths, it would seem each of these countries is facing a full-scale military conflict. At best, the actuarial reports speculate on what the immediate causes may be, such as drug overdose or delay in access to health facilities.

It is worth recalling the comments from January 2022 by Scott Davison, CEO at one of Indiana’s life insurance companies: “We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business—not just at OneAmerica. The data is consistent across every player in that business.” 

Age-standardized mortality trends in the United States versus other wealthy nations. US is red line and population weighted average of 21 other wealthy nations is dashed line [Photo: The National Academy of Sciences of the United States]

An important study from Boston University, titled “Missing Americans: Early death in the United States—1933 to 2021,” provides context to these statistics. When compared to other similar high-income nations, since the mid-1980s, mortality rates in the US began to outpace its peers. 

As the report noted, “The current US mortality disadvantage is unprecedented in modern times: there were more ‘missing Americans’ in 2021 than at any other point going back to 1933. The United States had lower death rates than other wealthy nations in the 1930s through 1950s and similar deaths rates in the 1960s and 1970s. US deaths rates began to diverge in the 1980s, and this divergence has accelerated in the 21st century.”

Between 1980 and 2019, the US experienced 11 million excess deaths above what it would have had it kept in line with the weighted average of 21 other wealthy nations. By 2019, half of these excess deaths compared to other wealth nations occurred in persons younger than 65. During the first two years of the pandemic, there were 308,000 excess deaths among those who were 15 to 44 years of age and 635,000 among those 45 to 65 years of age. 

The report found that “about half of the missing Americans died before reaching age 65 … Excess US deaths under 65 doubled between 2000 and 2019 and then increased by an additional two-thirds between 2019 and 2021. During the pandemic, half of all US deaths under 65—and 90 percent of the increase in under-65 mortality since 2019—would have been averted if the United States had the ASMRs [age-specific mortality rates] of its peers.”

Although these reports fail to explain these trends, there is no doubt that the intensification of the crisis of capitalism and the assault on the working class in the United State over the last four decades is major factor in culling the youngest and most vigorous in the population. This is a generation that has only ever seen the US at war abroad, with mass impoverishment at home, coupled with repeated bailouts for the rich, and an unending wave of police violence and now the turn to fascistic forms of rule. Their living standards have been devastated and their futures stolen in the pursuit of corporate profits.

Kremlin changes conscription laws to increase army without a general mobilization

Clara Weiss

In late July, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law a change in the conscription age for Russian men. Previously, those 18 to 27 were eligible for mandatory military service. Now, from 2024 onward, those 21 to 30 years old will be eligible. The new legislation also bans conscripts who have been sent a draft notice from leaving the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, left, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, right, arrive at The Peter and Paul Fortress to attend the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, Russia, Sunday, July 30, 2023. [AP Photo/Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo]

The measure is a means of  expanding the reserve without a general mobilization, which has long been called for by ultra-nationalist sections of the state apparatus and ruling class that have been routinely attacking the Putin regime for not waging the war in Ukraine against NATO proxy forces with sufficient consistency and rigor. 

Although the nominal age bracket for military service remains the same—nine years—the changes will result in a significant expansion of the pool of reservists from which the government can draft recruits. Russian legislation allows for workers employed at enterprises that are considered strategically important, as well as college students, to be exempt from the draft. On average, college students in Russia are between 17 and 22 years old. The overwhelming majority of Russian youth receive a higher secondary education. This means that of those 18 to 22 years old, a large portion have in the past claimed exemption from the draft. With the elevation of the conscription age to those aged 21 to 30, a much smaller number of young men will be able to avoid the draft based on their status as college students.

Rostislav Ishchenko, a Russian political scientist, explained that the changes to the conscription age were bound up with the need to expand the Russian army in light of the threats posed by developments such as NATO’s expansion to Finland. With about 200,000 conscripts each year, the Russian army would be able to create a reserve of about 1 million men.“ Raising the age of conscription,” he said, “allows for the replenishment of the Armed Forces in an unobtrusive way.” 

The Russian army is based on a combination of contract servicemen and conscripts. Last September, following the debacle of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region, President Vladimir Putin introduced a partial mobilization of 300,000 men. Those mobilized were conscripted from the pool of reservists—that is current or former servicemen.

The vast majority of Russian soldiers come from the working class. Even before the war, mandatory military service was widely considered to be extremely harmful to both the physical and mental health of young men as the Russian army has a sordid record of serious abuse. Families who can afford it—in privileged layers of the middle and upper classes—have a tradition of buying their sons out of military service.

In a stark demonstration of the class dynamics unleashed by the war, wealthy layers of the middle class have responded to the war, and especially the partial mobilization order in September, by leaving the country in droves to avoid being conscripted. It is estimated that between 900,000 and 1 million people have left the country since February 2022, the vast majority of them highly educated and with substantial financial resources and connections abroad.

The new legislation on conscription comes as the Ukrainian counter-offensive is now in its second month. So far, it has above all been a bloody debacle for Ukraine, with an estimated 1,000 troops lost every single day. However, Russian losses in the war, while no doubt lower than those of Ukraine—which may now be well above 200,000 dead—are also significant and there are indications that the Russian army is suffering a significant shortage of personnel.

Speaking with the WSWS on conditions of anonymity, a former Russian soldier said that there were “mass deaths” at the front even among the most experienced layers of the army. He explained: 

This is due to a number of reasons. The top leadership treats soldiers with contempt and regards them as a mere resource. The conduct of the war is often incompetent, and there is a shortage of supplies of food and military equipment. Already, the war has caused an acute shortage of personnel. Therefore, officers often conduct agitation among conscripted servicemen in order to convince them to enter contract service. Officers will hold conversations with each serviceman, using various methods of manipulation, agitation, as well as pamphlets and propaganda to convince servicemen to sign a contract. In some cases, psychological pressure or punitive measures are applied. Many previously dismissed contract servicemen are also re-entering military service: their contracts were extended for an indefinite period.

The former conscript noted, moreover, that the class divisions of Russian society are sharply reflected in the army. He said:

Most conscript soldiers in Russia, except for those serving in the Chechen Republic, receive a monthly salary of only 2,319 rubles (less than $26), which is enough to buy a couple of cans of energy drinks and a couple of packs of cigarettes. Contract servicemen receive a salary of 20 to 30,000 rubles (between $221 and $331). Once promoted to a higher position and security clearance can add a certain additional percentage to the salary. Veterans of combat operations also receive a certain added percentage to the salary. In total, the average salary of experienced contract servicemen reaches a maximum of 60 to 70,000 rubles ($663 to $774). Sergeants, low-level officers and junior officers live in the same impoverished conditions as the working class of Russia. This includes even those who receive benefits after combat operations. Junior officers receive a salary slightly above the average. The pay of senior officers will put them on a par with layers of the small and middle classes.

There is little question that a central reason why the Kremlin seeks to avoid a general mobilization is the fear that it would trigger large-scale unrest in the working class. Torn by internal infighting and crisis, the Putin regime is also trying to somehow avoid a further escalation of the war, an ever more desperate and hopeless endeavor, given the relentless provocations by NATO and the Kiev regime, including regular drone strikes on the Russian capital.

By virtue of its historical origins and social position, the Russian oligarchy is organically incapable of conducting a consistent, let alone progressive, policy in the face of the onslaught of imperialism and fears nothing more but a movement by the working class. Throughout the war, there have been only two consistent elements to the Putin regime’s erratic conduct of the war: First, the promotion of Russian nationalism with the aim of dividing and confusing the working class, and preempting a unified movement against the war and capitalism more broadly. 

Second, the delusional hope that, at some point, the imperialist powers will “come to their senses” and initiate negotiations with the oligarchs. However, the reality is that, from the standpoint of the imperialist powers, the war against Russia in Ukraine is but the first stage in an emerging new imperialist redivision of the world.

The war in Ukraine has exploded the entire justification of the restoration of capitalism by the Stalinist bureaucracy between 1985 and 1991. At the time, the Soviet bureaucrats, who had usurped political power from the working class after the 1917 revolution and murdered off their revolutionary opponents in the 1930s, proclaimed that imperialism was nothing but a “myth” and an invention of Marxism. This has been proven a delusional lie by the 30 years that followed.

Tyson Foods closes four more plants, resulting in 3,000 job cuts

Cordell Gascoigne

Tyson Foods plant in Joslin, Illinois, September, 2022

Tyson Foods will close four chicken plants across the country between late 2023 and early 2024, cutting 3,000 jobs, the company announced August 7.

Despite generating tens of billions in revenue annually, Tyson has been laying off workers around the country. It announced in April it would lay off 15 percent of its senior leadership and 10 percent of its corporate employees. Late last year, it closed its corporate offices in Chicago and South Dakota. Three months ago, Tyson closed its plants in Van Buren, Arkensas and in Glen Allen, Virginia, affecting nearly 1,700 employees.

The four additional plants now slated for closure are located in North Little Rock, Arkansas; Corydon, Indiana; Dexter, Missouri and Noel, Missouri. Production is being moved to new facilities closer to Tyson’s customer base. The four facilities account for approximately 10 percent of Tyson’s chicken slaughtering, according to Chief Financial Officer John R. Tyson.

These closures will devastate the economies of the mostly rural communities in which they are located. In Corydon, Indiana, more than 500 jobs will be cut. Responding to the public backlash, a Tyson spokesperson said, “We are closely coordinating with state and local officials, including the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, to connect all team members to resources and assistance available.”

Corydon has a population of a little more than 3,000 and is located 25 miles from Louisville, Kentucky. Its unemployment rate of 3.8 percent will almost certainly rise substantially. The annual income of a typical Corydon resident is only $19,825, significantly below the national average of $28,555.

The plant in Dexter, Missouri employs more than 680 people and is set to close October 13. City Administrator David Wyman told the press the closure will have a ripple effect on the area’s economy, including forcing the local government to halt plans to construct a new $18 million wastewater treatment plant. The town of Dexter has a population of 7,900.

The plant closure in Noel, Missouri will affect 1,513 jobs. “No way we can absorb that into existing jobs,” Presiding Commissioner of McDonald County said on Tuesday. The entire town only has a population of 2,100 people.

In North Little Rock, about 300 workers are set to lose their jobs. While the town of 68,000 has an unemployment rate of 2.8 percent, lower than the national average, household median income is only $45,590 and the poverty rate is 21.7 percent.

In 2018, Tyson Foods marked the 50th anniversary of production at the North Little Rock plant. John H. Tyson, the billionaire chairman of Tyson’s board, said at the time: “Our acquisition of the plant in 1969 marked the initiation of our production of further-processed chicken, which became a cornerstone of our poultry business. This move also paved the way for our entry into the food service industry. I take pride in the dedication of our North Little Rock team members and their ongoing efforts to serve our valued customers.”

The facility, spanning 76,000 square feet, commenced operations in April 1968 under Prospect Farms, Inc. of North Little Rock, before being acquired by Tyson Foods in 1969. However, despite enduring three years of COVID-19 with low wages, the workers who were celebrated just five years ago are now facing termination.

Last year, Tyson announced it would target $1 billion in productivity savings by the conclusion of fiscal year 2024. It cut more than $700 million last year alone, and already surpassed its $1 billion target during the second quarter of 2023, reaching its target significantly ahead of schedule.

While the company is citing declining revenues as the justification for the plant closures, Tyson’s sales are still up substantially from pre-covid levels. For the quarter ending on June 30, 2023, Tyson Foods recorded revenues of $13.14 billion, a 2.63 percent decrease compared to the previous year. However, In 2022, the revenue reached $53.282 billion, indicating a substantial 13.25 percent increase from 2021. In 2020, revenue stood at $43.18 billion, reflecting a 1.84 percent increase from 2019, the last full year before the pandemic.

“While current market dynamics remain challenging, Tyson Foods is fully committed to our vision of delivering sustainable, top line growth, and margin improvement,” said King, “I’m encouraged by the improvements we made this quarter, including our Tyson Core Business lines that continue to outpace our peers in volume growth.”

The mass layoffs at Tyson show the complete subordination of human life to private profit in American and world society. The industry was among the most unsafe in the country even before Covid-19, owing mainly to repetitive motion injuries stemming from the slaughtering and butchering process. Dilapidated infrastructure also plays a role. Last year, 22-year old Casen Garcia died at the Tyson plant in Joslin, Illinois, apparently after being electrocuted by faulty machinery.

Meatpacking workers were already among the most exploited industrial workers in the country, with the workforce drawn overwhelmingly from immigrants who lived in constant fear of immigration raids in their homes or even in the plants.

The company reaped record profits in the early years of the pandemic, when, with the support of the White House and local governments, the meatpacking industry kept its plants open. One Tyson pork facility in Iowa became infamous when it was revealed that managers were taking bets on how many workers would eventually catch covid. The United Food and Commercial Workers Union kept workers on the job around the country and opposed walkouts. By September 2021, there were nearly 60,000 confirmed cases among meatpacking workers and 298 confirmed covid deaths, according to the Food and Environment Reporting Network.

Heatwave and agricultural crisis hit Ukraine

Jason Melanovski

A part of a Russian rocket is seen in an agricultural field as a farmer works on a tractor during the sowing campaign in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine. [AP Photo/Kateryna Klochko]

Skyrocketing temperatures hit Ukraine this past week as the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push forward an obviously botched counteroffensive that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.

Last Saturday temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius (104 degree Fahrenheit) in the southern Zaporizhzhia province where Ukraine has concentrated much of its forces. The high temperatures resulted in emergency warnings for residents to stay indoors amid the sweltering heat. Temperatures cooled in subsequent days but are expected to remain elevated throughout the coming weeks.

That the Zelensky government is more interested in continuing its bloody counteroffensive during an obvious heat emergency is indicative of the immense social crisis caused by rising temperatures and the inability of capitalism to offer any meaningful solutions.

In addition to the skyrocketing temperatures, Ukrainian farmers and working class Ukrainians continue to face the dramatic after-effects of the explosion of the Kakhovka dam in the first days of the ongoing counter-offensive. The dam’s destruction resulted in the emptying of the long reservoir which lay behind it and served as a vital irrigation source for Ukraine’s most important agricultural region.

More than 700,000 in the area also lost their main supply of drinking water. In response, the right-wing Zelensky government allocated just $4 million to provide alternate sources of water, a paltry sum compared to the billions currently being spent on sending Ukrainian soldiers to their deaths in the failed counteroffensive.

Completed in 1956 as part of the Soviet Union’s development of hydroelectric power, the Kakhovka dam also served to provide Ukraine’s second-largest freshwater reservoir and supply four separate provinces with water through a system of canals.

The dam’s role as an irrigation reservoir was essential to turning a region typically subject to regular droughts into Ukraine’s most productive agricultural region.

Vadym Dudka, an agronomist and CEO of Agroanaliz Ltd, an international agro-consulting company, told the Kyiv Independent that prior to the dam breach, the region contained 330,000 hectares of irrigated land and 80 percent of all vegetables in Ukraine with a large percentage of fruits and grapes. According to Dudka, 85 to 90 percent of the region’s fields were dedicated to corn and soybeans, both of which Ukraine ranked as one of the world’s largest exporters.

As expected, the irrigation systems that formerly fed the region’s agricultural industry are now turning to sand. As Newsweek reported this week, recent satellite imagery from Planet Labs, an earth imaging company, demonstrated dramatic differences in waterways once fed by the Khakovka dam. One image showed the Kakhovka reservoir turned to dry land. While another also revealed that the North Crimean Canal is dry.

Rain in June briefly paused the emptying of the reservoir and its associated irrigation canals, but as temperatures throughout the summer increased, the canals have become all but empty. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, provided the dam is rebuilt it would still take up to seven years to restore irrigation from the Kakhovka reservoir to the region.

Following the outbreak of full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, global commodity food prices hit record highs. Just as prices started to stabilize, the failure of the grain deal allowing Ukraine to ship its products to the world has caused prices for commodities like rice and vegetable oil to rise again for the first time in months.

The Black Sea was traditionally used to ship Ukraine’s grain exports. Without access to its historical shipping routes due to the war, the country’s maximum grain export capacity will be reduced from seven to eight million tons a month to just four million tons, according to Alexandre Marie, chief analyst at Agritel, the agriculture analytics arm of Argus Media.

In response, Ukraine has been forced to use overland routes for export or the Danube River flowing through Romania, which has seen the monthly volume of crops it transports jump from 1.4 million tons to 2 million tons in the past year as Ukraine’s traditional Black Sea corridor routes have been closed off. The cost to ship on the Danube is significantly higher, increasing the price of food even further.

The unprecedented heat wave hitting Southern Europe and now Ukraine has also lowered the level of the Danube by nearly 40 percent, according to Romania’s water management agency.

“The problem is also that the water level in the Danube is getting lower day by day due to drought, so you can’t load barges with wheat at full capacity,” a grain broker based in the Romanian port city of Constanta, Andrei Balasoiu, told Bloomberg.

The further drying of Ukraine’s most important agricultural region will undoubtedly exacerbate the rise in global food prices for years to come. Official figures show food inflation stood at 17.3 percent in the 12 months leading up to June, when the overall consumer price index measure of inflation was 7.9 percent.

As the chief economist at the Bank of England recently admitted, global food prices for the world’s working class will likely never return to pre-war levels and “could still remain higher than it was.”

“Unfortunately, the days of seeing food prices fall, that does seem to be something that we may not be seeing for a little while yet, if in the future at all,” Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said.

Within Ukraine itself food prices have already risen 12.8 percent, surpassing the overall inflation of 11.3 percent over the past year. Both fruits and meat have risen approximately 25 percent, while eggs prices have risen 56 percent.

The rising food prices continue to add to the social crisis plaguing Ukraine in addition to the eradication of an entire generation of Ukrainians serving in the war. In 2022 alone, the Ukrainian economy contracted by over 30 percent.

More than 6.2 million Ukrainians have left and yet to return to the country since the start of the war, Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister Tetyana Berezhna revealed this week. And over 5 million are now considered internally displaced.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics reported that the country now numbers just 31.2 million. He also estimated that by 2030, the Ukrainian population will likely reach only 32 million, suggesting that many refugees will never return to the country. In comparison, the Ukrainian population numbered 52 million in 1991, the last year of the Soviet Union’s existence, and around 44 million before the outbreak of the 2022 war.

The decades-long demographic bleeding of Ukraine, as the war itself, is above all a result of the destruction of the Soviet Union by the Stalinist bureaucracy in 1991. The restoration of capitalism created the grounds for the social plundering of the country by the oligarchs and the imperialist powers, through austerity and now outright violence. The deaths of thousands upon thousands of Ukrainian men will not only further exacerbate the population crisis. This mass slaughter is also already having an immense impact on popular consciousness.

Australian government insists on unfettered war powers

Mike Head

With virtually no media coverage, let alone public discussion, the Albanese Labor government last week released its official response to a parliamentary committee report on the power to go to war by sending troops overseas.

Under conditions in which it is already participating in an escalating US-NATO war in Europe against Russia and intensifying preparations for a US-led war against China, the government doubled down on having unlimited powers to launch military operations entirely behind the backs of the population.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles with Indian, Japanese, US and Australian navy commanders involved in Exercise Malabar off the east coast of Australia, 11-22 August, 2023. [Photo: @RichardMarlesMP]

The government welcomed and praised the committee’s primary recommendation that “decisions regarding armed conflict are fundamentally a prerogative of the Executive”—that is a backroom cabal formally consisting of the prime minister and the national security committee of cabinet.

Significantly, the government rejected a proposal from the committee that such decisions be formally made in the name of the governor-general—as per the country’s 1901 Constitution—particularly in conflicts not rubberstamped by the United Nations Security Council or by a supposed invitation from the country invaded.

That recommendation by the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade inquiry was revealing. It was, in effect, an indication that preparations are being made for wars that are illegal under international law, most obviously against Russia and China.

The committee sought to protect the government from popular opposition and the danger of war crimes charges. It said such decisions made by the governor-general were not “justiciable”—that is, they could not be challenged in court.

The Constitution, a colonial-era document adopted by the emerging Australian capitalist class, deliberately retained the centuries-old “prerogative” powers of the British monarchy, which include the power to declare war, and vested them in the hands of the governor-general.

The government brushed aside the committee’s suggestion, saying it would cut across the “existing arrangements.” These “support timely and flexible decision making as well as the security of highly-classified information that is necessary for governments to make critical decisions” to enable the military to “effectively and efficiently deploy into contested environments.”

That is, as it ramps up its commitment to a US-led war on China, including via the AUKUS pact and the opening of bases across the country to the US military, the Labor government is adamant that any decision to go to war, or deploy troops anywhere, must be made entirely in secret, with no formal process required whatsoever. This secrecy is directed against the people, not the designated enemy, which would be quite aware of military intervention.

In a cursory media release, Defence Minister Richard Marles claimed that the government’s response displayed a “commitment to improving openness and accountability.” It was important, he said, “that parliament has effective mechanisms to examine and debate such decisions.”

Indian, Japanese, US and Australian navy vessels in Sydney Harbour about to begin Exercise Malabar off the east coast of Australia, 11-22 August, 2023. [Photo: @RichardMarlesMP]

In reality, fearing deep-seated public concern and opposition to being plunged into potentially catastrophic wars, the government adopted suggestions from the committee for a token debate in parliament—but only after the war was already underway, and confident of support from the parliamentary establishment.

In its report, released in March, the parliamentary committee was clearly conscious of the hostility among workers and youth to another war, especially after the barbaric disasters, involving the deaths of millions of people, of the Vietnam War and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq—all conducted on the basis of lies and propaganda concocted by the US, UK and Australian governments and their intelligence agencies.

Media polls have provided some limited measure of the extent of this anti-war sentiment. The latest one, conducted earlier this year by Essential Research, reported 90 percent support for the proposition that the prime minister should be required to get approval from parliament before making a decision to go to war. Two polls produced similar results in 2020 and 2021, as noted in the committee’s report.

In a bid to stifle such resistance by securing a parliamentary seal of approval for war, the government adopted the committee’s recommendation that after the Australian Defence Force (ADF) was “engaged in major military operations,” a written statement be tabled in parliament setting out the objectives of the intervention, the orders made and its legal basis.

Even then, the government insisted that it must be able to keep the public in the dark about the legality of the operations. “The Government reserves its right to determine the appropriateness of disclosures with respect to questions of international law and advice on questions of legality,” it stated.

No time frame was set for this process, except that a debate be conducted in both houses of parliament “not later than 30 days from the deployment of the ADF, subject to any considerations of national security or imminent threat to Australian territories or civilian lives.” In other words, even that 30-day timeline could be swept aside, based on government claims about “national security” or threats to Australian lives.

Parliamentary complicity

In any case, the purpose of a parliamentary debate would be to try to legitimise the war and quell popular opposition to it, with the political establishment reliably expected to perform that function. Parliament’s role would be to seek to mobilise the population behind what would be a disastrous war of aggression, not to prevent one.

That is politically in line with the submissions made to the committee inquiry by the Greens and Australians for War Powers Reform (AWPR), which have held out utterly false hopes that a Labor government would “reform” the war powers to make them more democratic.

The committee’s report noted that AWPR said “Parliament served as a means for the Government to convince the Australian public regarding the necessity for the war.” At committee hearings, AWPR witnesses assured the inquiry that parliamentary approval would be all but a sure thing, “due to Australia’s general bipartisanship on matters relating to defence.”

As these submissions showed, parliament is not the means to stop war. Rather, it is part of the capitalist state apparatus, dominated by the parties that defend the profit interests of the Australian ruling class, including its control and plunder of the South Pacific and other parts of the region.

To reinforce parliament’s role in justifying war, the government agreed to form a new parliamentary Joint Statutory Committee on Defence to facilitate the war-launching process. As with the existing foreign affairs, defence and trade committee, its membership would be shared between the government and the Liberal-National Coalition. Its members would be vetted by the military and intelligence agencies, and sworn to not divulge any information to the public.

Greens members of the inquiry committee filed a dissenting report, urging support for a joint sitting of parliament to approve military deployments overseas. Even that proposal would have allowed the governor-general, “by proclamation,” to declare that an “emergency” required a deployment without parliamentary approval.

The ruling capitalist class invariably launches war on the basis of claims of “emergency,” such as the fraudulent assertions of the imminent threat of “weapons of mass destruction” invented as the pretext for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The real purpose was to establish US control over the oil and resource-rich country at the centre of the strategically crucial Middle East and the wider Eurasian landmass.

The Labor government remains intent on covering up the real nature of that US-UK-Australian invasion, which the Labor Party falsely claimed to oppose in 2003, at least until it was, in effect, subsequently whitewashed by the UN.

The government bluntly rejected a recommendation from the Greens dissenting committee report that the legal advice given to the then Howard Liberal-National government about that invasion “should be made publicly available so that Australians can determine for themselves what was understood about entering Iraq.”

In reality, it is already known that the invasion of Iraq was conducted on the basis of lies that should see those responsible, in the Bush, Blair and Howard administrations, charged with the crime of conducting an unlawful war of aggression.

Nevertheless, the government responded baldly to the Greens: “As a matter of convention, the government of the day does not publicly disclose the confidential deliberations (including advice provided to inform cabinet decision making) of a former government. This is a longstanding and fundamental practice in the Westminster system.”

That only underscores the true character of the “Westminster system.” It exists to provide a façade of democracy over a secretive system of government in which the decisions are made, behind closed doors, in the geo-strategic and profit interests of the ruling class and its imperialist partners.

In practice, any decision to go to war with China would be made in Washington. Labor and Liberal-National governments alike have increasingly integrated Australia into US military operations, making it an essential platform for a war against China.

That has accelerated since 2011, when US President Obama announced Washington’s military and strategic “pivot to Asia” on the floor of the Australian parliament, courtesy of the Gillard Labor government.

Australia hosts vital US military and intelligence facilities, such as the Pine Gap communications and surveillance station in central Australia and other war bases across northern Australia. This embodies the Australian ruling class’s alignment behind US imperialism, on which it has depended since World War II to prosecute its own predatory imperialist interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

Shifting Power and Realities: Africa Beyond the Niger Coup

Nilantha Ilangamuwa

Lumumba pictured in Brussels at the Round Table Conference with other members of the MNC-L delegation, 26 January 1960. Harry Pot / Anefo – CC0

Conveying the essence of slavery to those ensnared within its clutches, with the intent of liberating them from its bonds, is a formidable challenge. Many among the enslaved did not perceive it as an avenue to freedom, and the tragedies endured by those who fought for their fellow slaves’ emancipation are profoundly poignant. Within the discourse of authentic social revolutionaries who waged war against the chains of slavery, from luminaries like Frederick Douglass to the indomitable Harriet Tubman, it’s all too easy to overlook one vital aspect—the anguish suffered by the slaves themselves, a pain compounded by their own brethren.

Furthermore, when we denounce the specters of colonialism and neo-colonialism, our gaze often turns to Africa, a repository of many examples. From iconic figures such as Patrice Lumumba, Kwame Nkrumah, Thomas Sankara, Frantz Fanon, to the resonant voice of PLO Lumumba advocating for the freedom and sovereignty of the African continent in modern times, their rhetorical and substantive contributions to society stand commendable.

Yet, it’s lamentable that many of these narratives place undue emphasis on external forces as architects of societal decay, relegating discussions about local dissension, hypocrisy, betrayal, and vulnerability to the shadows. The scarcity of self-critique dims our understanding of the internal fissures that plagued these societies. Often, the individuals we venerate as heroes earned their laurels in front of foreign societies by capitalizing on the underlying societal woes of their own origins. Their approach inadvertently nourished the very societal ills they ought to have resolved, allowing these deep-rooted problems to manifest in multifaceted ways. This raises valid concerns about whether true societal transformation transpired through their advocacy. This introspective perspective extends from Mahatma Gandhi to Nelson Mandela, prompting a reassessment of their historical heroism.

From my personal vantage point, George Washington’s decision to choose democracy over monarchy, resisting Colonel Lewis Nicolas’ entreaty for a royal crown after his victorious war, showcases an exemplary path. These actions underpin the foundational tenets that Western thought has bequeathed to us. Although the regrettable erosion of these honorable truths caused by the maneuvers of corrupt regimes and politicians within Western nations is evident, the essence of Western political thought retains its value. This is the case, even as power-hungry agendas and a decline in intellectual rigor have compromised the moral principles of human civilization.

This isn’t merely corruption in the conventional sense; rather, it’s an ideological corruption that afflicts nations like the United States in contemporary times. In contrast, during the culmination of revolutionary movements across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, several political leaders who were hailed as champions neglected to share the wisdom of learning from their opponents with the downtrodden in society. This oversight deprived common citizens of the opportunity to constructively evolve and contribute to societal betterment. This, in turn, obscured the deception and corruption woven into the tapestry of these so-called liberators’ actions. Their manipulation of a fragile societal fabric, coupled with manipulation fueled by hatred against external foes, served to legitimize their actions. Tragically, these so-called liberators maintained covert liaisons with their supposed enemies via clandestine channels.

This pervasive double standard consistently failed to yield genuine social reform, leaving these societies bereft, vulnerable, and marred by fraud, corruption, and criminality. Among those who ascended to power, be it through democratic means, revolutions, or coups, few exhibited a genuine resolve to address these underlying societal afflictions. Within this context, it becomes imperative to scrutinize the ongoing social upheavals in several pivotal African countries.

Africa, a continent endowed with abundant natural resources, paradoxically languished in poverty – a stark testament to the complex realities of humanity. Nature bestowed its treasures, yet external actors, often masquerading as local saviors, siphoned away their prosperity in the name of emancipation. In the poignant words of the late revered clergyman, Desmond Tutu, ‘they came and asked us to close our eyes, placing holy books on our heads. When we finally opened our eyes, we own holy books, and they own our land.’

A succinct exploration of the ‘military coup’ in Niger, situated within the Sahel region and endowed with substantial natural wealth, particularly uranium, assumes significance as a player in Africa’s evolving political landscape. The bloodless overthrow of the President was met with public approval. A rally attended by over 30,000 individuals underscored the military leaders’ reception. Notably, Niger has experienced its fair share of military coups throughout its political history. The trajectory includes leaders who assumed power through elections and military figures who seized control. Neighboring Nigeria, Libya (during Muammar al-Qaddafi’s administration) and France have exerted significant influence over Niger’s political dynamics. Additionally, French companies hold substantial stakes.

Following the military coup, a swift arrangement was made for Victoria Nuland’s visit. She sought an audience with the former president, who is currently under house arrest in the presidential palace in Niamey. However, the new leadership declined her request. Reports indicate her $200 million offer to coup leaders, many trained by the US, vehemently rejected. She also used the threat of discontinuing aid to coerce the reinstatement of former President Mohamed Bazoum into power, a plea that went unheard. The country presently houses around 1,500 American troops, operating from Niger Air Base 201, which stands as the second-largest US base in Africa. Contrastingly, Niger has called upon France to withdraw its contingent of 1,100 soldiers. This request stands in contrast to the situation in Mali and the coup leaders have already accused France of violating their airspace. The situation may escalate further before it eventually subsides. However, from the discussions surrounding Nuland’s visit, a discernible truth emerges—an escalating global surge in radical ideology against both Victoria Nuland and the US administration.

However, weary from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Western nations cannot afford a new war in Niger. Niger’s formerly affable relationship, which deteriorated following the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, has undergone a transformation during the Putin administration. Russia has increased its military and political influence in these regions, exemplified by the African conference held on July 27-28, alongside Niger’s power transition. Despite attempts to downplay the event by the West, representatives from 49 African countries attended the St. Petersburg conference, including 17 heads of state who visited Russia to discuss politics, humanitarian concerns, and economics. China’s and Russia’s achievements in African nations underline that even the US would face an unprecedented crisis if war breaks out. Regrettably, the United States not only erodes its credibility but also struggles to comprehend prevailing realities. This perspective appears to seek redemption through the augmentation of its military capacities, inevitably paving the way for unforeseen crises in the times ahead.

We stand at a transformative moment in history, akin to the approaching winter that is set to reshape the conflict in Ukraine and the political dynamics in Europe. Africa’s effort to disentangle from colonial overseers marks a new era. Power shifts resonate with nations seeking alternatives. However, power politics has not eradicated poverty and social disparities in Africa. The resurgence of military coups in West Africa reflects an underlying ailment demanding genuine scrutiny. Yet, the pivotal task is addressing political and socio-economic injustices, tied to the recurring pattern.

What truly matters is the fate of those farmers toiling to feed their children, the laborers trapped in uranium mines reaping meager rewards, the children bereft of proper education due to the absence of adequate schools, and so forth. Is their plight destined to change? Notably, the complex resistance against liberation often arose from the very slaves who sought freedom, rather than the slave owners. This poignant dilemma echoes the tragic reality faced by numerous African nations.