Pakistan Election Aftermath: Coalition Government, Economic Challenges, and the Struggle for Substantive Solutions

Pranjal Pandey

Photograph Source: Amnagondal – CC BY-SA 4.0

On February 8, 2024, Pakistan conducted its parliamentary elections with 44 political parties contesting for 265 seats in the National Assembly. This marked the 12th general election in the country since it gained independence 76 years ago.

After the announcement of results on February 11, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, joined hands to form a government. Both of these parties were not able to reach the majority mark. Nawaz Sharif put forth his younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, as the nominee for the position of Prime Minister.

Parties and Regional Results 

Pakistan’s National Assembly comprises 336 seats, and elections were conducted for 265 seats. The election for one seat was postponed after the death of a candidate, while the remaining seats (60 for women and 10 for minorities) were reserved for members of those groups and allocated based on the proportional representation of parties in the election results.

According to the Election Commission of Pakistan, the independents supported by now-jailed Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured 93 seats in the National Assembly . Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, attained 75 seats. The Pakistan People’s Party led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari obtained 54 seats. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a party based in Karachi, made a noteworthy comeback, winning 17 seats in the polls, and has pledged full support to PML-N. The remaining 26 seats were secured by others.

In the provincial elections, candidates from PML (N) won 138 seats in Punjab while independents backed by PTI won 116 seats. Additionally, the PPP secured 10 seats and later offered support to Nawaz Sharif’s party. PTI-backed candidates won a majority in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, securing 84 seats out of 113. In Sindh, the PPP obtained a majority by winning 83 seats out of 130, while Balochistan voted in a hung assembly.

Maryam Nawaz, the daughter of Nawaz Sharif, made history by being the first woman to be nominated as the Chief Minister of Punjab province in Pakistan.

What Led to PTI’s Revival?

These elections occurred against a backdrop of broad public dissatisfaction directed at the previous government headed by the PML (N) and PPP. The discontent stemmed from their inability to control the prices of essential commodities and address the economic challenges faced by the majority of Pakistanis.

Furthermore, the arrest of Imran Khan, his involvement in multiple legal cases , the prison sentences he received, and his party losing its election symbol added to the prevailing chaos. Nevertheless, the public perceived the targeting of Imran as an assault on democracy, mobilizing support and playing a significant role in the PTI’s performance. Pakistanis expressed dissatisfaction with the military’s role in politics, seeking change and a genuine democratic system. Imran Khan emerged as the preferred candidate to fulfill these aspirations.

Issues in the Election

In Pakistan, a primary concern for voters centered around the burning issue of inflation, a critical factor that has significantly eroded real wages. A real wage is the income that an individual receives for their work, adjusted for inflation. The average real wage has seen a substantial decline in Pakistan, plummeting by 13 percent in the year 2023 alone, increasing financial strain on the people.

The industrial sector of the country is in a downturn, with the high costs of inputs acting as a major barrier. The manufacturing output of large industries witnessed a staggering 15 percent year-on-year contraction in June 2023, due to the high cost of doing business. Moreover, the broader economic scenario from July 2022 through June 2023 indicates an overall industrial decline of 10.26 percent, pointing towards the intensity of the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector.

The imposition of stringent austerity measures mandated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the transition toward market-based prices have further constricted Pakistan’s capacity to navigate economic challenges effectively. This shift in economic policy has not only impacted the purchasing power of citizens but has also intensified the economic hardships faced by businesses, particularly in the manufacturing domain which is the highest creator of employment opportunities.

Adding to the complexity is the absence of a comprehensive plan for reindustrialization, leaving the economy without a clear roadmap to revitalize its industrial base. The allocation of a substantial portion of the budget, approximately $17 billion , to subsidies that primarily benefit a privileged elite increases the economic disparities within the country. Concurrently, the persistently high unemployment rate, currently standing at 8 percent, underlines the challenges faced by ordinary people.

Collectively, these issues underscored the intricate economic landscape in Pakistan, where concerns about inflation, industrial decline, austerity measures, and the distribution of resources played pivotal roles in shaping voters’ perspectives and influencing their choices.

However, a notable positive outcome from the recent elections is the limited influence of religious parties, with their representation remaining below 10 seats. This suggests a preference among voters for a more secular and inclusive political landscape, emphasizing national interests over religious affiliations.

The recently held Pakistan election, considered one of its most significant, experienced a substantial voter turnout despite lingering doubts about its fairness. Before the polls, concerns were raised regarding the fairness of the Election Commission, which denied PTI its symbol and the consistent ‘persecution’ of Imran Khan. Several petitions challenged constituency results post-general elections, citing issues with Forms 45 and 47, crucial in Pakistan’s electoral process. Form 45, recording votes at polling stations, includes vital details submitted to the Returning Officer for final results. Form 47 offers a provisional overview before official confirmation, consolidating Form 45 data. PTI raised concerns over their polling agents not being provided Form 45 and significant discrepancies between Form 47 results and detailed Form 45 information in several cases.

The appeals for unity from both political and military figures underscore the strained civil-military relationship. Unfortunately, none of the political parties presented a substantive alternative agenda. Critical issues have taken a back seat in the discussions. Instead, the focus had shifted disproportionately toward the personalities of Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, turning the entire electoral narrative into a contest of charisma.

Asif Ali Zardari is poised for a potential second term as president. Imran Khan has cautioned against the “misadventure” of establishing a government based on “stolen votes,” asserting that such electoral manipulation would not only disrespect citizens but also worsen the country’s economic decline.

Uncertainties persist regarding tangible benefits for the people, including increased income for farmers and workers as promised, the prevention of government overthrow by the military, and potential surprises from Imran Khan. Amidst numerous questions, answers remain elusive, leaving the population to confront challenges while elites build their castles.

UK workers suffer massive income losses since 2010

Harvey Thompson

All parts of Britain have suffered from economic stagnation since 2010, leading to a huge fall in incomes. The urban policy research unit examined areas such as employment, productivity and ecological impact comparisons between urban and rural economies.

Cities Outlook 2024 assesses the wage data on those workers employed in the 64 largest towns and cities across the UK. It finds that thousands of pounds have been slashed from the wages of millions of workers since 2010. Had the UK economy not taken a nose-dive in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008, the average urban dwelling worker would have earned an additional £10,200.

Footprints in the Community food bank in northern England receives donations [Photo: Twitter/Footprints UK]

The report states that “the national economy clusters in cities and large towns,” and that although they constitute only 9 percent of the land surface of the UK (which the recently re-evaluated methodology of the study recognises as 63 primary urban areas), they account for 63 percent of economic output and 72 percent of knowledge-based jobs in the private sector.

On average a worker employed in Cambridge, Glasgow or Burnley had an income shortfall of £21,340, £23,500 or £28,090 respectively since 2010. In London the shortfall was £13,590; in Liverpool £15,720; in Leeds £8,220; in Manchester £8,180; in Sheffield £6,380, and in Birmingham (the second largest city) £2,680.

Workers in Aberdeen lost over £45,000 since 2010 largely because of the direct and indirect effects of the slashing of 9,000 jobs in areas connected with oil and gas. This severely affected the local economy. The city also suffered a 30 percent drop in retail jobs, compared with a 6 percent downturn nationally. 

In real terms, many millions of workers have worked the equivalent of several additional months and even years since 2010 for nothing. For example, the average entry-level wage for a school teaching assistant in the UK in 2023 was £13,984.

The Financial Times noted that wages have declined almost everywhere in the UK, “both in centres of cutting-edge innovation and in northern cities suffering persistently high levels of deprivation.”

Centre for Cities’ director of policy and research, Paul Swinney, told the newspaper that poor economic performance in the capital was “particularly alarming” as traditionally London and its surrounding region has been “the engine of national productivity growth.”

The report raised a number of long-term macro and micro economic problems, framed as a challenge for any future government: “Big cities should be leading the regional and national economy, as is the case with comparable cities on the continent, creating wealth and opportunities for people who live in and next to them. The fact that they don’t is bad news for neighbouring towns and villages. While a region’s prosperity is disproportionately generated in these large centres of production, it is spread much wider.”

Data released this month by the Nationwide Building Society, based on a recently conducted survey, reveals a huge surge in workers nationwide who have no money left to count as savings by the end of the month. The percentage almost doubled last year from 11 percent in 2022 to 21 percent in 2023. More than one in five of households have less than £100 spare at the end of the month.

The Nationwide data reveals average monthly household energy bills increased by 63 percent between 2021 and 2023, while monthly food and motor fuel costs also increased by over 30 percent.

Nationwide said the average amount of disposable cash left over at the end of each month had fallen from £328 in 2021 to £295 in 2022 and £237 at the end of 2023. 

The impoverishment of millions arises from the gigantic social gulf between the super-rich capitalist elite and the working class. As Karl Marx established in Capital: A Critique of Political Economy: “accumulation of misery, agony of toil slavery, ignorance, brutality, mental degradation”, at one pole of capitalist society is inevitably accompanied by “accumulation of wealth” at the opposite end.

In the decade and a half since 2010, the social counterrevolution carried out against the wages and conditions of millions of workers has seen a gilded elite amassing more wealth than ever before.

In 2010, there were 53 billionaires in the UK (in 1990 there were just 15). By 2022 this super-wealthy category had mushroomed to 177 billionaires with known accumulated wealth of £653 billion (an increase in billionaire wealth of well over 1,000 percent since 1990).

In that same year, current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty made the Sunday Times Rich List for the first time. Murty, the daughter of an Indian IT billionaire, agreed to pay UK taxes on all her earnings only when her finances came under scrutiny after it was revealed she had “non-dom” status and did not pay UK tax on overseas income.

The World Socialist Web Site, noted “this “marks a quantitative degeneration of bourgeois rule and is stark confirmation of oligarchic domination over every facet of life in Britain.”

Last year Sunak paid an effective tax rate of just 23 percent on his personal £2.2 million income. A low capital gains rate and the US location of funds meant his tax bill of £508,000 was much less than if he had been taxed under the UK’s still low top income rate of 45 percent.

According to the Equality Trust, of the 177 billionaires on the 2022 list, 44 drew the majority of their wealth from finance and investing activities, while for a further 39, a majority of their wealth accrued from real estate. As the charity noted at the time; “both of these sectors are integral to a broader process which economists have understood under the rubric of financialisation,” a process ongoing since the 1970s and 80s under both and Conservative and Labour governments in which the financial sector was deregulated with staggering wealth transferred from the working class to the richest in society.

Such is the unprecedented level of social polarisation that in the two years since 2022, six members of this exclusive club have been unceremoniously ejected to leave 171 current billionaires in Britain. To become one of the 100 richest people in the world in 2024, now requires identifiable wealth of at least £11 billion. 

To put this into proportion, using figures from the Office of National Statistics, this equates to over 41,000 times the average UK household wealth of £262,000—itself a vastly skewed upwards figure due to it incorporating those on higher earnings).

The social environment illuminated by the data from organisations such as Centre for Cities, the Nationwide Building Society, the Equality Trust and others, is the result of a decade and a half of brutal austerity measures; imposed by capitalist parties. For most of that period the Tories in office have relied on Labour-run local authorities imposing huge cuts in jobs, pay and conditions, and the slashing of vital social services.

In this, the government and Labour have operated in alliance with the trade union bureaucracy who sold out the 2022-23 strike wave of several million workers in the public and private sector, resulted in a increase in the army of low paid and suffering in the precarious “gig economy” that has mushroomed since 2010.

On the political impact of the Centre for Cities’ study, policy and research director Swinney, noted in the Financial Times: “MPs [Members of Parliament] knocking on doors will be talking to people who have missed out on thousands of pounds because of the malaise of the economy.”

Study gives insight into post-exertional malaise in Long COVID patients

Bill Shaw

A new study on Long COVID provides insights into one of its most common and debilitating symptoms, post-exertional malaise (PEM), which occurs when patients experience a worsening of many or all their other Long COVID symptoms after even minor physical or mental activity. Specifically, the study provides evidence for some hypotheses for how SARS-CoV-2 infection causes the disorder, and evidence against other hypotheses.

Some of the most prevalent symptoms of Long COVID

Most commonly, fatigue is worsened by PEM, often becoming incapacitating to the point that patients can barely function in their daily activities. Many hypotheses have been put forward for how SARS-CoV-2 infection results in PEM. They include persistence of the virus in the body, dysfunction of mitochondria, systemic inflammation, immune-system abnormalities, hormonal imbalances, and low blood flow to muscles with subsequent hypoxia.

With respect to the hypoxia hypothesis, the concern is that amyloid proteins get deposited in blood vessels. This buildup would then obstruct blood flow to the muscles.

Amyloid proteins are long fibers formed from normal cellular proteins, and often form when cells produce an unusually large quantity of a particular protein. They are most commonly associated with Alzheimer’s disease, but amyloid can accumulate in any organ and cause disease.

The researchers designed the study to address all the aforementioned hypotheses of PEM. They recruited 25 patients with Long COVID and 21 healthy controls, all of whom followed the same study protocol. The researchers conducted interviews, physical examinations, exercise testing, muscle biopsies and blood tests. They also had participants complete surveys and wear an accelerometer to measure daily physical activity level.

The study had strict inclusion criteria for patients with Long COVID. Each patient was diagnosed by two expert physicians using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the disorder. The physicians also ruled out other causes of their symptoms and ensured the patients did not have symptoms prior to COVID. Furthermore, their post-exertional malaise was confirmed by their responses to the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire for Post-Exertional Malaise (DSQ-PEM).

Notably, PEM is a symptom of other disorders beyond Long COVID, especially myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). Researchers studying these disorders developed and validated the DSQ-PEM prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus the DSQ-PEM has a history of accurately differentiating patients with and without PEM regardless of cause. Prior Long COVID studies have used it as well.

The study found that Long COVID patients had substantially lower power output and VO2max on exercise testing. VO2max is a measurement of the amount of oxygen an individual’s body can utilize during maximal levels of exercise. It is considered the best indicator of endurance. The lower VO2max in patients was not explained by failure to reach maximal effort as indicated by multiple physiological and biological parameters measured during the exercise test.

Maximal pulmonary oxygen uptake (V̇O2max, A, n = 23 long COVID, n = 21 healthy control) and peak power output (B, n = 25 long COVID, n = 21 healthy control) were both lower (p < 0.0001, p = 0.001 and p = 0.014, respectively) in patients with long COVID compared to healthy controls. [Photo by Appelman, B., Charlton, B.T., Goulding, R.P. et al. Muscle abnormalities worsen after post-exertional malaise in long COVID. Nat Commun 15, 17 (2024) / CC BY 4.0]

The researchers ruled out cardiovascular and pulmonary disease as an explanation for the reduced performance as well. Additionally, accelerometer data, muscle biopsy and study of muscle metabolism all ruled out muscle atrophy due to inactivity in Long COVID patients relative to controls.

On muscle biopsy, Long COVID patients had a higher proportion of so-called “fast twitch” muscle fibers relative to controls. This finding is significant because these muscle fibers undergo rapid fatigue. They output short bursts of high power and then take long periods of time to recover before they can generate power again.

Robert Wüst, one of the co-authors of study, noted: “We know that it is difficult to change fiber types in people, and that it doesn’t happen with inactivity. Something else is changing the fiber types.”

Furthermore, when the researchers accounted for size of muscles in patients and controls, patients had lower levels of skeletal muscle force. This indicates that the fiber composition of muscles was significant regardless of levels of fitness.

The researchers also found reduced mitochondrial function in Long COVID patients vs. controls through various metabolic tests. Significantly, it was not a reduction in mitochondrial numbers or activity, but a qualitative reduction in the ability of the mitochondria present to produce cellular energy through a process called “oxidative phosphorylation.” Long COVID patients had reduced oxidative phosphorylation activity relative to controls both pre- and post-exercise, demonstrated via study of their muscle biopsies.

Succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) activity, a marker for mitochondrial density, was reduced (p = 0.0083) after induction of post-exertional malaise in Long COVID patients (n = 25) compared to healthy controls (n = 21). [Photo by Appelman, B., Charlton, B.T., Goulding, R.P. et al. Muscle abnormalities worsen after post-exertional malaise in long COVID. Nat Commun 15, 17 (2024) / CC BY 4.0]

This finding is consistent with a prior study covered by the World Socialist Web Site, which found persistent reductions in the production of certain key mitochondrial enzymes required for oxidative phosphorylation post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. That study, however, did not look at skeletal muscle but instead visceral organs, including the lungs and heart.

The net effect of these two findings on muscle fibers and mitochondria is that they explained the lower exercise capacity of Long COVID patients. As noted, the researchers were careful to select patients to exclude other explanations like prior heart or lung disease.

Another significant finding was that every Long COVID patient in the study experienced PEM after their exercise test. This confirms the appropriateness of the strict inclusion criteria and the validity of the DSQ-PEM survey. After the exercise test, the Long COVID patients experienced a variety of symptoms, including worsened fatigue, muscle pain and cognitive symptoms for up to seven days.

Wüst commented, “Their mitochondrial function is impaired rapidly upon exercise. This can make them go into a vicious cycle, because every time they overexert themselves, they get a crash in their mitochondrial function and their metabolism.”

The researchers were nevertheless cautious in interpreting the reduced exercise capacity in Long COVID and its causes. They noted that the findings do not readily explain PEM in Long COVID patients. First, shifts in muscle fiber composition take place over long time periods, whereas the patients experienced PEM the day after exercise. The researchers also could not rule out that patients had lower exercise capacity and mitochondrial function prior to contracting COVID-19.

On muscle biopsy, the researchers did find increased amyloid deposition in Long COVID patients relative to controls. Both groups had increased post-exertional amyloid deposition in muscle. However, the amyloid deposits were not in blood vessels and did not cause hypoxia. The ultimate significance of the amyloid is unknown and a topic for future research.

The muscle biopsies of Long COVID patients also showed greater degrees of tissue damage, both pre- and post-exercise. These areas of damage in patients were associated with greater signs of tissue regeneration in response to the damage. The researchers concluded that these findings are a possible explanation for symptoms of fatigue and muscle pain and weakness in patients’ post-exertional malaise.

The analysis of immune disturbances did show that Long COVID patients differed significantly in the numbers and types of immune cells present in the muscle, and the changes in these numbers with exercise was also different. The findings were suggestive that Long COVID patients’ immune response to muscle tissue damage was suppressed relative to controls.

Finally, the two groups did not differ in the presence and levels of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein or the levels of immune B cells. Thus ongoing viral replication as a cause of PEM was not a factor in this study.

The researchers summarize that PEM in Long COVID is characterized by local and systematic reductions in mitochondrial metabolism, severe exercise-induced myopathy, infiltration of muscle by amyloid-containing deposits, and significant variations in the numbers and types of immune cells present in muscle. Understanding the molecular pathways that result in these findings and their relative contribution to PEM remain topics for future study.

The study is limited, as the researchers note, by the relatively small numbers of participants. Also, given that it was an observational study, no conclusions about causality may be drawn. The patients included in the study all had severe Long COVID, so the results do not necessarily generalize to all patients with Long COVID.

Nevertheless, the study fills several gaps in our knowledge and helps improve our understanding of PEM in Long COVID. In particular, it confirms that patients with PEM get worse, not better, with exercise.

“Normally we know from all the other chronic diseases that exercise is good for you, that exercise is medicine,” says Wüst. “However, these patients do get worse.”

figure 4. Percentage experiencing Long COVID by State. [Photo by Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA.@michael_hoerger]

The ongoing affliction with Long COVID of tens of millions of people worldwide, a number that is growing daily due to the mass infection and reinfection of the global population enabled by the criminal policies of the ruling class, will continue to require the best efforts of scientists around the globe to understand and develop treatments for the disorder and its worst effects, including PEM. As insights are gained into the disorder, the impetus for a global elimination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 grows ever stronger.

As global war intensifies, world economy moving to slump

Nick Beams

In this Friday, Dec. 7, 2018 photo, large-sized liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are being constructed at the Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering facility in Geoje Island, South Korea. [AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon]

As the world is increasingly afflicted by war—the result of the ever-expanding front lines of US imperialism’s drive to maintain its position of global dominance—there are clear indications of a gathering economic slump.

This development will intensify the geopolitical tensions, leading to increased militarism, as capitalist governments worldwide increase their arms spending, while intensifying the attacks on the working class in order to pay for it.

The worsening global economic outlook was highlighted last week by data which showed that both the UK and Japan had experienced two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the second half of 2023.

This trend was underscored by the decision of the European Commission to downgrade its forecast for European Union economic growth this year after 11 of the 27 EU countries were hit by recession in 2023, the most significant being the contraction of 0.3 percent in the Germany economy for the year.

The contraction in the Japanese economy—a 0.3 percent fall in output in the last quarter after a shrinkage of 3.3 percent in the third—came as something of a shock because the “consensus” forecast among economists was, instead, for an expansion of 1.1 percent.

The UK data showed the economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the final quarter following a 0.1 percent contraction in the third. But underneath these relatively small numbers, at least at this stage, there is a deeper trend at work.

Considering the growth of the UK population, output per head fell by 0.7 percent in 2023 and has fallen in every quarter after failing to grow since the start of 2022. Excluding the effects of COVID in 2020, the UK has experienced the first contraction in per capita output since the global financial crisis of 2008-9. Output per head is still 1.5 percent below the pre-pandemic level in the last quarter of 2019.

Since the financial crisis of 2008, world economic growth has been sustained to a considerable extent by the expansion of the Chinese economy. Not any longer.

China recorded growth of 5.2 percent in 2023—the lowest level in three decades and the target for this year, shortly to be announced by the government—is not likely to be any higher. In fact, there is considerable doubt as to whether it can reach even 5 percent.

The Chinese economy is beset by a series of problems, including the onset of a deflationary vicious circle as prices fall at their fastest rate in 15 years. The stock market is continuing to fall, despite efforts by regulatory authorities to prop it up, and a growing number of international investors have decided that the country is “uninvestible.”

The real estate crisis which has seen the bankruptcy of two of its biggest property development firms, is not improving. In the years following 2008, real estate and property development grew to account for around 25 percent of the economy. The government has been extremely reluctant to provide a stimulus, fearing this will only exacerbate already considerable debt problems.

But its efforts to develop another growth path based on the advancement of high-tech have run headlong into the bans and restrictions imposed by the US, part of its program of ever-expanding economic warfare against what it considers to be its main economic rival.

The only relative exception to the worsening global economic outlook appears to be the United States, where the growth rate rose above 3 percent for the last quarter of 2023.

But closer examination reveals that the same basic trends are at work, even as their immediate appearance is somewhat different.

One of the key aspects of US growth is that it is directly feeding off the death and destruction that its developing war front has created.

As a recent article in the Wall Street Journal noted, advocates of increased military spending for the war in Ukraine are insisting that it is “good for the economy.”

In the words of Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council, in a recent interview in support of the Biden administration’s new military package: “That’s one of the things that is misunderstood … how important that funding is for employment and production around the country.”

According to data compiled by the Federal Reserve, production in the US defence and space sectors has increased by 17.5 percent since the start of the Ukraine war. The State Department has reported that the US made more than $80 billion in major arms deals in the year up to last September of which about $50 billion was with Europe, more than five times the historical norm.

And there have been other “benefits.” The cutting of gas supplies to Europe from Russia as a result of the Ukraine war and the escalation of prices has proved a bonanza for the US such that it became the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas last year with exports set to double by 2030.

The US economy, however, is not immune from the developing recessionary trends. As the global struggle for markets and profits intensifies, major US firms, in auto and other industries, are slashing jobs. Tech companies alone, according to a report in the Financial Times, have axed 34,000 jobs so far this year as part of the shift to the use of artificial intelligence.

And hanging over it is the ever-present threat of another financial crisis as higher interest rates, initiated by the Fed to suppress workers’ wages demands, threaten to collapse the financial house of cards built on the previous low-interest rate regime.

In a recent comment piece, the German finance minister Christian Lindner delivered a warning to the working class the world over. The “peace dividend” of the past, he said, had been used to expand the welfare state. Now a change of direction was necessary.

In other recent remarks, also with international implications, he said the German economy was not in the best shape because its “structural deficits” had been covered by low interest rates, demand from the world market and lower energy costs and now it had to focus on “structural problems.”

Every major capitalist government confronts “structural problems” in one form or another. As they strive to increase military spending, they do so under conditions of record government debt amid a world economic slowdown. That means intensifying attacks on the working class.

Australia: Asbestos contamination found in public spaces across Sydney

Max Boddy

In recent weeks, asbestos has been detected in mulch at more than 40 sites across Sydney, Australia’s most populous city. The toxic material has been found in numerous parks and railway stations as wells as schools, hospitals, shopping centres and at least three private residences.

This list of sites in NSW with asbestos-contaminated mulch now includes five schools. [Photo: NSW Government]

Asbestos is a hazardous and carcinogenic building material that was in widespread use in Australia until the late 1980s. While the health risks, especially to workers, were known to manufacturers decades earlier, use of the material was not completely banned until 2003. Thousands of Australians have died from mesothelioma, lung cancer and asbestosis as a result.

The recent discoveries of contamination began in early January, when suspicious material was found by community members in a newly built park at Rozelle in the city’s inner west and reported to Transport for New South Wales (NSW).

This sparked an investigation by the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) and the state Labor government. Initially, attempts were made to dampen down public concern, with official assertions that only lower risk bonded asbestos, in which the dangerous fibres are kept in place by other materials, had been found. 

But the expansion of testing across the city led to the February 13 discovery of more dangerous friable asbestos, which can easily be crushed into a powder, become airborne and be inhaled, at Harmony Park in the inner-city suburb of Surry Hills.

As well as numerous parks across the city, the material has been found at two hospitals, three supermarkets, sporting facilities and multiple railway stations on the Bankstown line.

The list of contaminated sites now includes at least five schools, including St Luke’s Catholic College in Western Sydney, which has been forced to institute remote learning for its roughly 2,000 students as a result.

It has also been found at Nowra, on the NSW South Coast, suggesting that the contamination could be spread more widely across the state.

Today, the Australian Capital Territory government confirmed that potentially contaminated mulch was sold to 24 companies and 27 addresses in and around Canberra over the past year, although no asbestos has been found in the nation’s capital at this stage.

The EPA claims the affected mulch can be traced back to Greenlife Resource Recovery and its waste facility at Bringelly in Sydney’s south-west and has locked down the site.

EPA tests of nine mulch and three soil samples from the facility in January showed no asbestos, but a spokesperson for the authority said it was “concerned about mulch that was manufactured and sold between March and December 2023 and is no longer on site.”

The company has denied responsibility, noted that there are multiple points in the supply chain in which contamination could have occurred and that the asbestos could have been present at the sites before the mulch was delivered. Greenlife declared in a statement: “Many of the sites the mulch is delivered to are remediated sites, meaning those sites have had asbestos buried there many decades ago.”

The Bringelly site has previously been the subject of four EPA clean-up notices under its previous owner, Hi-Quality Waste Management. According to an investigation by the Sydney Morning Herald, these include a notice in 2016 when EPA officers discovered asbestos fragments, along with other pieces of non-plant matter such as concrete, mixed into stockpiles supposed to contain only soil and rocks. A penalty notice was issued in 2017 and more asbestos was discovered in 2020, mixed in with other waste material. 

Greenlife purchased the site in 2022 and a representative from Hi-Quality Group stated that the company engaged an auditor approved by the EPA before the sale to assess site conditions, ensuring it met the criteria for sale.

Greenlife said that multiple independent tests of the mulch used at Rozelle were ordered by the contractor in charge of the development, John Holland, and were cleared each time. Greenlife also stated that two other mulch samples were collected in October and November last year, tested by an independent lab and cleared.

This limited and opaque testing process, entirely under the control of the corporations that stand to lose if any contamination is found, is nevertheless more than what is legally demanded. The EPA requirements for testing of mulch call merely for a visual inspection to confirm the material does not contain any extraneous matter. 

With the recent discoveries drawing attention to the issue of asbestos contamination, it has become increasingly clear that dangerous practices in the production of recycled landscaping material have been known about and ignored by regulators for years.

An investigation by the Guardian revealed that the EPA has known for more than a decade that soil fill made from construction and demolition waste, called “recovered fines,” failed to comply with the authority’s rules resulting in products containing asbestos and lead.

A 2019 internal investigation by the EPA revealed that waste processing companies were able to bypass regulations by simply requesting that new samples, provided by the companies, be tested after a problem is identified. The report found that 43 percent of all waste facilities in the state had requested retesting after they received a breach notice.

After dangerously high levels of lead were detected in samples from one facility, five additional samples were sent before one was found that contained an acceptable concentration. The earlier tests ranged from 10 to 20 times the acceptable limit.

In NSW, more than 700,000 tonnes of recovered fines are produced each year for projects ranging from landscaping to sporting grounds, parks and residential facilities. Legally, facilities are not required to independently test for asbestos and only 29 percent were doing so according to the 2019 investigation.

Retesting as a means of sidestepping regulations has been recognised by the EPA since at least 2013, when another internal investigation revealed the practice.

Jason Scarborough, a former senior officer at EPA who was involved in the 2013 report, told the Guardian on Sunday the contamination crisis was “destined to happen.” 

Scarborough said he was at a loss as to why several suggested reforms had not been implemented, citing the substantial evidence collected by “objective, science-based, and risk-focused” EPA officials during the 2013 and 2019 investigations. 

“They were going down a pathway [of reform] that made sense but then suddenly to do a complete about-face with essentially zero explanation other than ‘we’ve heard what industry had to say about it’—it’s unusual,” he said.

In other words, when waste management and construction companies complained that tighter regulation would hurt their profit margins, any move to improve the health and safety of ordinary people was quickly dropped.

The revelations about soil testing point to the fact that the current mulch incident is likely just the tip of the iceberg. The immediate move by Labor and the EPA to pin sole responsibility on a single company is an attempt to cover up both the scale of the problem and the role of successive Labor and Liberal-National governments in allowing it to develop.

That so much asbestos is present in building waste is a product of the fact that its use was allowed long after its harmful properties were well known in order to protect the profits of manufacturers and the building industry.

It also points to the completely inadequate regulation of demolition and the disposal of asbestos and other dangerous materials. The process is not treated as a health and safety issue, but an opportunity for profit for private entities, creating a financial incentive for corners to be cut and costs to be slashed.

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin to be released on parole

Ben McGrath

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has ostensibly been jailed since returning to Thailand last year, is to be granted parole this weekend. After a 15-year, self-imposed exile abroad, he has served only six months of what had originally been an eight-year sentence on trumped-up charges. This is part of an unstable truce between Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party and the military that twice ousted it in coups in 2006 and 2014.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, arrive Don Muang airport in Bangkok, Thailand, on Aug. 22, 2023 [AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit]

The 74-year-old Thaksin is among 930 who have been granted early release by a parole committee. The justice minister in the Pheu Thai-led government, Police Colonel Tawee Sodsong, confirmed Thaksin’s upcoming parole on Tuesday after weeks of speculation. He pointed to Thaksin’s advanced age and declining health.”

Immediately after returning to Thailand, Thaksin began serving his eight-year prison term, to which he had been sentenced in absentia. This took place on August 22, not coincidentally the same day the new Pheu Thai government—a coalition including military-backed parties—was formed. However, he has been held in the comfort of the Police General Hospital in Bangkok, reportedly being treated for hypertension, narrowed blood vessels, and hepatitis B. On September 1, Thaksin was granted a royal pardon that reduced his sentence to one year. He has therefore served half of his prison term, another requirement for parole.

The government of current Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is at pains to claim that Thaksin, who is also a billionaire and former police lieutenant colonel, is being treated like an average person. Srettha stated on Tuesday, “Thaksin was prime minister for many years and did many good things for the country for a long time. After he comes out, he would be a normal citizen.”

However, he added significantly, “Everything went according to the law… I believe that Thaksin can give good advice to his daughter to serve the country.” Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is the current head of Pheu Thai.

Whatever the government’s claims, Thaksin is not a “normal citizen.” Nor is he preparing for a quiet retirement while occasionally giving “fatherly advice” to the leader of Thailand’s ruling party. He is in reality the de facto head of Pheu Thai, having exercised his influence from behind the scenes while living abroad. The party was founded as Thai Rak Thai by Thaksin in 1998.

Furthermore, Thaksin served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, garnering popularity among poor and rural sections of Thailand through programs like state-funded healthcare and other hand-outs to villages. He represents sections of the bourgeoisie sidelined by the traditional sections of the ruling elite grouped around the military, monarchy, and state bureaucracy.

Fearing that his government cut across their interests, the military ousted Thaksin in a 2006 coup, which opened up years of political instability including another coup in 2014 that removed Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra from power. Following this, the military rewrote the constitution and installed coup leader General Prayut Chan-o-cha as prime minister. He remained in office until last year.

Thaksin’s return was clearly part of a carefully prepared deal between Pheu Thai and the military establishment following last May’s general election. In that contest, the Move Forward Party (MFP) unexpectedly came in first. The MFP appealed to young people and progressive layers declaring it would carry out democratic reforms of the Thai state following large-scale protests against Prayut’s government in 2020 and 2021.

Despite the limited nature of these pledges, they proved a step too far and the military-appointed Senate blocked the MFP from taking power. Instead, Pheu Thai formed a coalition government that included two military-aligned parties—the Palang Pracharath Party and the United Thai Nation Party—allowing the military to keep hold of key levers of power. Nine officials in Srettha’s 34-member cabinet also served in Prayut’s cabinet.

That the military did not simply scrap the election results, as it did in 2019, is a sign of the nervousness the ruling establishment feels over declining economic conditions and the potential for mass unrest in the working class.

Last year, household debt grew to 16.2 trillion baht ($US448.3 billion), or 90.9 percent of Thailand’s GDP. That figure is expected to grow to 91.4 percent by the end of 2024, according to TMBThanachart Bank. The finance ministry also reported in January that the economy grew by only 1.8 percent last year, compared to 2.6 percent in 2022. The ministry has already revised predicted growth for 2024 down to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent.

In this context, Thaksin’s return to Thailand and his quick release brings bitter political enemies together as the ruling class confronts the growing opposition. The government will impose the burden of the economic crisis on the working class and the poor and will be ruthless in crushing strikes and protests. In office, Thaksin was notorious for his suppression of media critics and waged a bloody “war on drugs” involving thousands of extra judicial killings by police.

Thaksin will no doubt use his influence to try to bolster the tattered image of Pheu Thai, which for years postured as a progressive and democratic alternative to the military. Leading party members repeatedly claimed ahead of the May election they would not form a coalition government with the military-aligned parties. When Pheu Thai reneged on this pledge, it generated widespread disgust among young people and workers, who voted for the party believing its promises.

The opposition MFP is playing a role as well with limited criticisms, including asserting that Thaksin has been receiving special treatment. This is simply stating the obvious. MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon on Thursday advised Thaksin not to take on too public a role immediately after his release to avoid the impression that there were “two prime ministers”—an acknowledgment of his influence.

However, the MFP is consciously avoiding any discussion of the issues that led to Thaksin’s return and the economic crisis facing Thailand’s workers and poor. Instead, it is playing the role of loyal opposition to promote the fraud that democratic reforms can still take place through parliament. This includes promoting a limited bill to grant amnesty to protesters charged over last 20 years of unrest that began when Thaksin was ousted from power.

Another act of war: Israel sabotages Iranian gas pipelines

Peter Symonds

Amid the escalating conflict throughout the Middle East fueled by its genocide in Gaza, Israel carried out a major act of sabotage inside Iran this week, calculated to further inflame tensions and goad Tehran into responding.

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Israel conducted covert attacks that ruptured two gas pipelines in the provinces of Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari and Fars, disrupting supplies to homes, offices and factories in the middle of winter.

March 16, 2019 file photo, shows natural gas refineries at the South Pars gas field on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf, in Asaluyeh, Iran [AP Photo/Vahid Salemi]

Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji told state TV that the aim was to cut gas to major provinces in the country, but “except for the number of villages that were near the gas transmission lines, no province suffered a cut.”

His comments were contradicted, according to the New York Times, by “the comments of local governors and officials from Iran’s national gas company, who had described widespread outages of service in five provinces, forcing the closure of government buildings.”

While Israel has not commented, yesterday’s New York Times article, based on two Western officials and an Iranian military strategist, declared that Israel was responsible for the sabotage. They noted that “the gas pipeline attacks by Israel required deep knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and careful coordination, especially since two pipelines were hit in multiple locations at the same time.”

Previously, Arab separatists in southwestern Iran have claimed responsibility for attacks against oil pipelines. However, strikes on oil and gas infrastructure elsewhere in the country have been rare, and not on this scale.

Citing the Iranian military strategist, the New York Times wrote that “the Iranian government believed Israel was behind the attack because of the complexity and scope of the operation.” And it “almost certainly required the help of collaborators inside Iran to figure out where and how to strike.”

The two affected pipelines, each of about 1,200 kilometres, provide gas to major cities, including Tehran, Isfahan and, in the north, Astara. Together, they supply about 15 percent of Iran’s daily gas production.

“The level of impact was very high because these are two significant pipelines going south to north,” Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior energy analyst at Kpler, told the newspaper. “We have never seen anything like this in scale and scope.”

The Israeli sabotage is a deliberate provocation aimed at adding further fuel to a war led by Israel and the US that is rapidly expanding throughout the Middle East. As the Zionist regime has carried out its genocidal onslaught in Gaza, backed to the hilt by Washington, the US and Israel have exploited the military action by militia sympathetic to Palestinians to wage wider attacks throughout the region.

The Biden administration’s chief target is Iran, which US imperialism regards as the main obstacle to its hegemony in the Middle East. The US and Britain are already carrying out air and missile strikes against Houthi militia in Yemen that have sought to disrupt supplies for Israel passing through the Red Sea.

In response to an attack on a US military base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers, the White House vowed revenge on Iranian-backed militia. In early February, US forces already carried out strikes on 85 targets in seven locations in Iraq and Syria against “Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups.”

Likewise, Israel has conducted multiple attacks in Lebanon and Syria against Hamas and Hezbollah—both aligned with Iran—as well as killing two senior IRGC commanders in Syria. Already waging a bloody assault in Gaza and the West Bank, the Israeli military is preparing for a full-scale onslaught on Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.

Iran has repeatedly declared that it does not want war with the US and Israel, and has denied any direct involvement in the military actions of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Nevertheless, the Biden administration and its Israeli ally continue to ramp up their provocations against Iran, aimed at inciting a response that could be used as a casus belli for all-out war.

Washington may not have been directly involved in Wednesday’s attack on Iran’s gas pipelines but certainly would have given it the green light. American forces may well have provided assistance with logistics and intelligence. An attack on the vital civilian infrastructure of any country is an act of war.

Moreover, both the US and Israel have repeatedly carried out covert operations in the past against Iran—directed against its nuclear facilities. During the Obama administration, unnamed White House officials gave detailed accounts of, and bragged about, its cyber-attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The US infected the plant’s high-speed centrifuges with the Stuxnet worm, causing them to spin out of control and self-destruct.

In tandem with the US, Israel carried out a murderous campaign against top Iranian nuclear scientists. In 2021, the New York Times provided details of the assassination the previous year of Iran’s top nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh by a remote-controlled drone in an operation jointly organised by Israel and the United States. From 2007 up to that point, the article pointed out, Israel had killed five nuclear scientists, wounded another and assassinated the Iranian general in charge of missile development.

The US has not limited its attacks to covert operations. In 2020, the Trump administration authorised an attack at Baghdad’s international airport that killed Iranian General Qassem Suleimani and seven others in a blatant act of war. While President Joe Biden may have tactical differences with Donald Trump over foreign policy, he is no less ruthless in pursuing the interests of US imperialist interests.

Already at war with Russia in Ukraine and widening the conflict against Iran in the Middle East, the US is accelerating its military build-up and provocations against China, which it regards as the existential obstacle to its global hegemony.

Biden’s unqualified backing for Israel’s genocide gives the lie to his claims to not want a wider war in the Middle East. The White House has refused to rule out direct attacks on Iran, supposedly in retaliation for the three American deaths. Indeed, the New York Times reported this week that the US had carried out a cyberattack in early February on an Iranian military vessel it claimed was supplying information to Houthi fighters about ship movements in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The attacks on Iranian gas pipelines on Wednesday are one more indication of the speed with which the US and Israel are plunging the entire region into war.