Cuba in crisis as electrical grid collapses causing island-wide blackout

Alexander Fangmann

By early Monday afternoon, the Cuban National Electrical Union (UNE) claimed to have restored power to 89.3 percent of the capital, Havana, as it brings the national grid back online after repeated failures over the weekend. The grid collapse, which caused an island-wide blackout for the nation of 10 million people, is the result of fuel shortages and deteriorating infrastructure, caused ultimately by the decades-long United States blockade, and deepened by the bankruptcy of the so-called Cuban road to socialism.

Cuban electrical workers working to restore power [Photo: Prensa Latina]

Cuba’s power grid suffered a complete collapse beginning on Friday, after the failure of its largest power plant, the Antonio Guiteras power plant near Matanzas, at around 11a.m. This caused a chain reaction of failures around the country. Contributing to the collapse of the grid has been a shortage of fuel for the power plants, including seven ship-based, floating power plants Cuba has leased from Turkish suppliers to make up for its own decrepit facilities. 

The UNE unsuccessfully tried to bring the grid back up several times over the weekend, ultimately suffering four grid collapses in 48 hours by Sunday. On Sunday, UNE said it had restored power to 216,000 in Havana before the grid collapsed for the fourth time. Many parts of the country remain without power. 

Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy has claimed that most people will see their electricity restored Monday night, though he said some might wait a bit longer, stating “the last customer may receive service by Tuesday.”

Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz said that “the fuel shortage is the biggest factor” in the grid collapse. As a result, the Cuban government instituted emergency measures to cut down electrical usage in order to bring the grid back online. As a result, all school and non-essential activities were canceled through Wednesday. As Marrero put it, “We have been paralyzing economic activity to generate (power) to the population.”

During the prolonged blackout, even many hotels ran out of fuel for their generators, and a report on CNN indicated José Martí International Airport in Havana was operating on emergency power only, with much of the airport in the dark. At least some hospitals were reportedly still functioning through the use of generators, but public transportation and much of the economy were basically shut down. 

For ordinary Cuban workers, very few of whom have access to generators, the blackout left food, the cost of which takes up a substantial portion of their meager incomes, rotting in refrigerators. In many homes, running water was also cut off, as it is common for buildings to rely on electric pumps to move water up from underground cisterns. 

Following Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s assertion that the country’s situation was the result of US “financial and energy persecution,” a spokesman for the White House National Security Council absurdly claimed, “The United States is not to blame for today’s blackout on the island, or the overall energy situation in Cuba.”

In fact, the blockade has deprived Cuba of needed investment, as well as access to supplies and parts for its aging power plants. The main thermoelectric plants used for electricity generation are close to 50 years old and have a lifetime of only 25-30 years.

Additionally, as these power plants rely on crude oil and refining capacity to function, the US embargo on financial and oil services has hamstrung the ability the Cuban government to supply these plants with enough fuel. This is to say nothing of the ongoing attempts by American imperialism to carry out regime change in Venezuela, which has been Cuba’s main supplier of fuel. Economic sanctions against Venezuela have caused a significant contraction in that country’s oil production, resulting in smaller shipments to Cuba as Venezuela struggles to meet its own internal demand.

According to a report in the New York Times, Venezuela cut its oil shipments to Cuba in half this year, to 25,000-30,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is down from the peak of around 130,000 bpd Venezuela was sending a decade ago. Imports from Mexico and Russia that made up the balance of Cuba’s domestic fuel needs have also fallen. Indeed, so precarious is the fuel situation that bad weather last week preventing the docking of a ship carrying fuel contributed to the lack of power generation.

Even before the grid collapse, Cubans were experiencing blackouts for 10 to 20 hours per day in some cases, especially outside of Havana. The total blackout has raised the specter of the return of social protest to the island. In July 2021 widespread protests emerged against blackouts and electricity shortages, and there were also some smaller protests earlier this year after the slashing of fuel subsidies and the implementation of a “macroeconomic stabilization program.” Later in June, the government announced it would begin implementing austerity under the banner of a “war economy,” as a result of the profound social, economic and political crisis gripping the island.

After the grid collapse began, President Miguel Diaz-Canel appeared on television wearing a military uniform to warn the population against any protests, stating, “We are not going to accept or allow anyone to act with vandalism and much less to alter the tranquility of our people.”

He said violators would be treated “with the severity that revolutionary laws provide,” and claimed protesters were acting “under the direction of the foreign operators of the Cuban counter-revolution.”

Reports indicated there have been scattered protests around the island, including barricaded streets, though the lack of internet access and power have no doubt prevented reports from emerging.

O Levy claimed it was essentially against Cuban culture to criticize the government, saying, “It is Cuban culture to cooperate,” and he added that reports of protests were “incorrect” and “indecent.”

As Cuba suffered with the blackout, Hurricane Oscar made landfall near the eastern city of Baracoa as a category 1 hurricane, bringing 80 mph (130 kph) winds to an area in which a great deal of electrical infrastructure is concentrated, including several larger power plants in Holguín and Renté. Though it is unclear if the storm caused a great deal of damage, the island has been hit repeatedly by hurricanes in recent years. Its prolonged crisis, aside from hampering its ability to remain afloat economically in the context of changes and new demands by capitalist global industries, is also preventing it from withstanding changes brought about by global warming. 

Due to the profound crises and widespread shortages of electricity, food and other necessities around the country, Cuba has experienced one of the biggest population losses recorded outside of an open war. Since 2022, more than a million people, or 10 percent of the population, has left the island, according to Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, the head of National Statistics and Information Office, who revealed the figure during a July session of the National Assembly.

The official figures made public by the government revealed the population fell to 10,055,968 in December 2023 from 11,181,595 in December 2021. Fraga noted that the trend in population loss had continued in 2024, meaning the population had fallen below 10 million. At least one estimate, by Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos of the Christian Center for Reflection and Dialogue in Cuba, places Cuba’s current population at 8.62 million, noting the government had not carried out a required census, which is currently delayed until at least 2025. 

Apparently, 405,512 people also died during the period outlined by Fraga, or 3.6 percent of the population, a high number that is likely the result of an aging population in which one-fourth of Cubans are over 60 years old, and the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to infect Cubans while public health measures to mitigate the spread of the disease are basically nonexistent, as in other countries around the world. 

The collapse of Cuban electrical infrastructure, as well as the shredding of nearly all that remains of Cuba’s social safety net and infrastructure, underlines the role of American imperialism, which never accommodated itself to the existence of the Cuban Revolution and any challenge to its untrammeled hegemony in the Caribbean. It also shows the impossibility of the so-called Cuban road to socialism, which truly was only a more radical form of the bourgeois nationalist movements in the post-war period, and which has only ever sought to be recognized as legitimate by the US government.

Turkey re-opens talks with Kurdish PKK as war in Middle East escalates

Ulaş Ateşçi

On Tuesday, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the fascist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), part of the “People’s Alliance” led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, declared, “When the isolation of the terrorist chief [imprisoned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan] is lifted, he should come and speak at the [Kurdish] DEM [People’s Equality and Democracy] party group meeting of the Turkish parliament.”

“Let him shout that terrorism is completely over and the organization [PKK] has been dismantled. If he shows this resilience and determination, the way for the legal regulation of the ‘right to hope’ and its use should be wide open,” he added.

Devlet Bahçeli (left) in Mersin in 2019, campaigning in support of MHP mayoral candidate Hamit Tuna [Photo: Onur Erdoğan]

This unprecedented statement comes as the Zionist regime of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the full support of the US and European powers, has escalated the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon and is preparing a comprehensive military strike on Iran.

The overwhelming majority of the Turkish people oppose the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza and an escalation of the war against Iran. The Erdoğan government, noting the growing danger, has declared its opposition to the expansion of the war in the region.

The Erdoğan government’s initiative follows Ankara’s application to join BRICS as part of its policy of manoeuvring between its NATO allies, and Russia and China, amid the escalation of the Ukraine war. Erdoğan is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazan, Russia, Wednesday on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting. Iran also joined the organization in early 2024.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in Qatar: “All our neighbors have assured us that they won’t allow their soil or airspace to be used against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Kuwait is the 11th country I have visited in the region. All the countries in the region have expressed their opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran.” Araghchi was also in Turkey on Friday.

Bahçeli’s call to reopen negotiations with the PKK, which Ankara considers a “terrorist group” and has been fighting to suppress since 1984, received the endorsement and support of Erdoğan.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sarajevo, Bosnia, on September. 6, 2022. [AP Photo/Armin Durgut]

Shortly after Bahçeli’s speech, Erdoğan declared, “The historic window of opportunity we have opened as the People’s Alliance should not be sacrificed to greed. As the political establishment, parliament, civil society, press, academia and society, let’s build a Turkey without terrorism.”

Behind the signal of the Erdoğan government of a change in its policy of “military annihilation” of the PKK is the concern of the Turkish ruling elite that the escalation of the US-Israeli war against Iran and its allies could draw Turkey in and lead to a redrawing of borders in the Middle East, including the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

In his remarks Tuesday, Erdoğan made clear that this was aimed at strengthening the hand of the Turkish ruling elite against the escalating war across the region: “While the maps are being redrawn in blood, while the war that Israel has waged from Gaza to Lebanon is approaching our borders, we are trying to strengthen our internal front. We want 85 million of us to come together under the common denominator of Turkey.”

Turkish and U.S. soldiers conduct the joint patrol outside Manbij, November 1, 2018 [Photo: Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve/Spc. Arnada Jones]

The Kurdish population is estimated at 15-20 million in Turkey, 10-12 million in Iran, 8 million in Iraq and 3.5 million in Syria. The PKK has influence in all these countries through its umbrella organisation, the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), and the PYD/YPG, which controls north-eastern Syria, is closely allied to the US--the architect of the regime change war in Syria that began in 2011.

Recently, Erdoğan has repeatedly warned of a possible war between Turkey and Israel. “The Israeli leadership, acting with the delirium of the promised land and with a purely religious fanaticism, will set its sights on our homeland after Palestine and Lebanon,” he said in early October.

The possibility of a war between Turkey and Israel as part of the escalation in the Middle East is real. However, this criticism of the US and Israel comes from a government allied with Washington and Tel Aviv.

For more than three decades, the Turkish ruling elites have supported US imperialism’s interventions and regime change wars in the region in line with its drive to dominate the Middle East and, like other Arab regimes, have been complicit with Israel in oppressing the Palestinian people.

With their support for the invasion of Iraq starting in 2003 and the war of regime change in Syria starting in 2011, they have not only been complicit in the deaths or displacement of millions of people. They have also contributed to the dynamics of the disintegration of these countries and to the growing US-Israeli aggression across the region.

As the Socialist Equality Group explained at the time, the so-called “peace process” between the Erdoğan government and the PKK, which started in 2009, was an initiative developed with the approval of the US and European powers as part of the imperialist war of plunder in the Middle East. When the US made the YPG militia the main proxy force in the war for regime change--and a YPG-led proto-state emerged in in Syria--Erdoğan ended the talks and launched a violent offensive against the Kurdish movement in both Turkey and Syria.

While the Erdoğan government officially cut trade with Israel in May in the face of popular anger and opposition, it has been revealed that exports of critical products such as steel to that country continue to flow through Palestine. Moreover, Turkey’s strategic partner Azerbaijan is Israel’s main supplier of oil, which continues to feed Israel’s war machine through Turkish pipelines and ports. US-NATO bases in Turkey, which are believed to provide Israel with intelligence for its aggression against Palestinians, Lebanon and Iran, continue to operate.

As the World Socialist Web Site recently stated, “At the root of this contradiction is the bourgeoisie’s deep-rooted attachment to imperialism. The main fear of the Turkish ruling class, which, far from being able to oppose imperialism, acts as its proxy in the Middle East, is that a revolutionary movement of the working class against imperialism and Zionism will develop.”

Tülay Hatimoğulları, co-chair of the Kurdish nationalist DEM, welcomed Bahçeli’s call and said, “If there is to be a start, the isolation must be lifted immediately. The compass for the solution of the Kurdish question is democratic negotiation and honourable peace.” The legal Kurdish leadership, and its pseudo-left allies fully supported the previous negotiations in the name of “peace and democracy” as part of their orientation to the imperialist powers and reactionary aims of the Kurdish and Turkish bourgeoisies.

Özgür Özel, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which came first in March’s local elections, said: “As the CHP, we will fully support the end of terrorism... Whatever needs to be done should be done in parliament. There will be no result without a full social consensus. If this problem is to be solved, it must be discussed at a table that includes all parties.”

Öcalan has been imprisoned on İmralı Island in the Marmara Sea since he was captured in Kenya in 1999 in a CIA-backed operation and extradited to Turkey. He was subjected to arbitrary isolation for the past 44 months.

Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the PKK, pictured in 1997 [Photo by Halil Uysal - Archive of the International Initiative "Freedom for Abdullah Ocalan - Peace in Kurdistan / CC BY-SA 3.0]

The “right to hope” to which Bahçeli referred means a possibility of prisoners being “conditionally released for good behavior within the time limits set by law.” In 2014, the European Court of Human Rights ruled against Turkey based on the “right to hope”, finding that a sentence of aggravated life imprisonment without the right to conditional release violated the European Convention on Human Rights.

Bahçeli’s statement, backed by Erdoğan, is an admission of the political character of Öcalan’s isolation and imprisonment. Many people who have raised this issue of basic democratic rights and demanded the release of all political prisoners in Turkey have been imprisoned.

Bahçeli’s statements on the Kurdish question since the beginning of October were welcomed by the DEM but received a harsh reaction from a KCK/PKK leader.

On October 7, Besê Hozat, co-chairman of the executive board of the KCK, said that these moves were a “game and a conspiracy” by Erdoğan and Bahçeli, and that the aim was “to completely neutralize the internal opposition, to create confusion among the Kurds... to create a disintegration within the DEM party, within democratic politics, if they can, if they succeed, to completely take over the CHP and put it at their service.”

She added, “Turkey’s fear is not that Israel will attack Turkey. It is that the Kurds can benefit from this war environment. The Kurds can gain more.” This statement, which confirms the calculation of the PKK leadership to profit from the escalation of the war, confirms the impulse that drove the Turkish bourgeoisie to this step. It also testifies to the reactionary character of both Turkish and Kurdish nationalism.

A few days after this statement, a report in Al Monitor, citing unnamed sources, claimed that Öcalan had recently spoken by telephone with KCK/PKK leaders in Mount Qandil in northern Iraq. “Öcalan told them it was time to discuss laying down arms,” one of the sources said. Another source said, “They want to prevent another Syria [a reference to the strengthening of the YPG]. They want to be proactive this time,” said another source.

Report on universities in Turkey reveals disastrous social conditions of students

Ozan Kutlucan

As universities across Turkey open amid the escalating war in the Middle East and Ukraine and increasing attacks on the social conditions of the working class, a report published by Eğitim-Sen, an educators’ union, shows the disastrous conditions of the students’ education, housing and living.

The report, which aims to reveal the financial and psychological problems of university students, also reflects the concerns of the youth about the future.

The cover of the Eğitim-Sen report [Photo: egitimsenankara5.org]

According to the report published on October 8, prepared with the participation of 279 students, 48.6 percent of students continue their education entirely with the financial means of their families. Only 36.7 percent say they have access to scholarships or student loans. In addition, student loans are a huge burden for young people who must repay them for many years.

Many students are forced to work because of inadequate or non-existent scholarships and income. According to the report, about 15 percent of students continue their education by working. A much larger number of students want to work for a living but cannot find a job. According to the report, 36.7 percent of students complain about the lack of decent part-time jobs.

One of the most important problems facing university students is housing. Only one-third of respondents have access to public dormitories. However, the actual use of public dormitories is much lower. Out of 7 million university students, only about 880,000 live in public dormitories. Under conditions of high inflation and exorbitant housing rents, this results in students paying high rents for private dormitories or apartments.

While 45.7 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the conditions of their dormitory or apartment, 28.3 percent said that the dormitory did not provide a healthy environment.

In addition to housing, more than half of the students said they believe their diet is not healthy. Seventy-one percent believe that their monthly income does not allow them to eat an adequate and balanced diet. The number of students who said they skip meals due to lack of time and financial reasons is close to 70 percent. 56 percent said that “sometimes there are days when they do not eat.”

The report reflects the consequences of decades of attacks by the ruling class on the social conditions of the working class.

The idea that university graduates will find well-paid jobs has been erased from the consciousness of the younger generations. Students are not only unable to find a job according to their skills while they are still studying but start to worry about unemployment even before they graduate. 81.2 percent of students are worried about their future. The rate of those who fear that they will not be able to find a job in the future is 73.3 percent.

About half of the students are unable to attend cultural activities such as theatre and cinema due to financial constraints. Students are deprived of opportunities to socialize both for financial reasons and due to lack of time.

Social wealth is created by the working class. These resources, which should go to social services such as education, health and basic infrastructure, are diverted to banks and corporations through war industries, bailouts, subsidies and tax amnesties. Basic rights such as education and health are subordinated to capitalist profit and wealth accumulation, while social spending is slashed.

With the transformation of education into a major area of profit in recent decades, the number of private universities has increased dramatically (from 20 in 1999 to 78 in 2024) in Turkey, while the quality of scientific and vocational education in the growing number of public universities has declined.

The youth are not helpless in the face of all these destructive policies and problems. However, they must realize that social rights, including free and decent education, health, housing, food and access to cultural activities cannot be fulfilled within the current economic and social order. The capitalist system confronts humanity with major problems such as war, genocide, the rise of fascism, massive social inequality and climate change. Therefore, the issues that concern today’s youth cannot be separated from the broader global issues facing the working class.

Impeached Kenyan deputy president replaced by police-state enforcer Kithure Kindiki

Kipchumba Ochieng

On Thursday, Kenya’s Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was removed from office after he was impeached by the country’s Senate, becoming the first deputy president to be removed from office since impeachment was introduced in Kenya’s 2010 constitution.

Kithure Kindiki, the blood-stained interior minister, has replaced Gachagua. Kindiki spearheaded the brutal suppression of the Gen-Z protests in June, July, and August, which resulted in at least 61 protesters being shot dead by the police, 67 enforced disappearances, and hundreds more injured.

Kithure Kindiki [Photo by Sir. Kevin Macharia / CC BY-SA 2.0]

Throughout this period, Kindiki repeatedly violated the constitution by banning protests and deploying state-sanctioned thugs to terrorise demonstrators. The year before the Gen-Z insurgency, he oversaw the killings of 71 anti-austerity protesters. In northern Kenya, under the guise of fighting “banditry,” Kindiki directed police forces to kill hundreds of pastoralists, many of whom are displaced by capitalist-induced climate change.

Kindiki becomes deputy president as the government continues to escalate International Monetary Fund (IMF) austerity measures, including tax hikes and privatisations.

The High Court has temporarily suspended Kindiki’s appointment while it reviews Gachagua’s appeal, which will be heard on Thursday.

Gachagua, a former member of parliament, was elected deputy president in August 2022 alongside President Ruto. His selection was a calculated move, part of the entrenched tribalist politics of Kenya’s ruling class. A wealthy but relatively unknown corrupt businessman, Gachagua was chosen as Ruto’s running mate to secure campaign funds and the support of the Kikuyu community—the largest ethnic group in Kenya—frustrated by the corruption and anti-working-class policies of outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, who also hails from the same community.

During the Gen-Z protests, Gachagua fell out of favour with Ruto when he attempted to shift blame for the mass demonstrations, which saw millions take to the streets in opposition to the government’s tax hikes in the Finance Bill 2024 and demanding Ruto’s resignation, onto the National Intelligence Service (NIS). Gachagua publicly criticised the NIS, accusing it of “failing” to properly inform Ruto and senior police officials about the growing unrest among youth and workers, suggesting that the agency had “slept on the job.”

His remarks were seen by Ruto as undermining him at a time when he was enforcing brutal crackdowns on protesters, supported by both the European Union and Washington.

Relations continued to sour, with Ruto sidelining Gachagua as he maneuvered to withdraw the unpopular tax hikes to buy time to install a new “broad-based” government backed by the US and the European Union—a coalition of Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Party and the main opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by billionaire Raila Odinga to continue to impose IMF austerity. Together, they are now reinstating the unpopular tax hikes that were withdrawn from Finance Bill 2024, while abandoning its promises to investigate police officers responsible for brutal repression.

The impeachment process over the past weeks has been a complete charade, in which workers had no stake. The Senate voted to impeach Gachagua on five of the 11 charges brought against him, following a similar motion that was overwhelmingly approved by 281 MPs, with only 44 voting against and one abstention, in the National Assembly the week prior. The impeachment was supported by a majority from both Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza and Odinga’s ODM. The charges included “gross violations”, such as undermining the Constitution, corruption, practising ethnically divisive politics, threatening judges, and undermining government.

Notably, Gachagua was cleared of corruption and money laundering charges, despite having amassed over $40 million in just two years. Many senators likely viewed his removal on corruption grounds as setting a dangerous precedent, given that they too are part of the entrenched looting system that siphons billions from Kenya’s public coffers annually. Were the corrupt elements to be weeded out of parliament, its chambers would sit empty.

That the whole government is corrupt was laid bare during the vetting process of the new ministers after Ruto dissolved and restructured his cabinet, reinstating eight individuals. The most glaring examples came from the dramatic increases in personal wealth declared by several ministers.

The net worth of Kindiki, the new Deputy President, surged by approximately $1 million (Ksh.150 million) in just 20 months. Housing Minister Wahome’s wealth jumped from $1.46 million to $2.18 million. Defense Minister Soipan Tuya saw her wealth rise from $1.05 million to $1.63 million, a gain of $580,000. Environment Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale reported a $860,000 increase. Tourism Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Miano declared a $320,000 rise. Youth Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, formerly in the Roads Ministry, disclosed a 12.73 percent increase in his net worth, from $3.85 million in 2022 to $4.34 million. All attributed their wealth increases to “various investments.”

The main cited reason for the Senate removing Gachagua was over his role in stoking tribalism. Gachagua comes from the Kikuyu tribe, the largest tribe representing 17 to 22 percent of the population, while Ruto comes from the Kalenjin, the third-largest tribe, representing 12 to 13 percent of the population. Tribalism has long been used by Kenyan capitalist politicians since independence to divide workers and the rural masses along ethnic lines.

In March last year, during an event in Kericho County—mostly inhabited by the Kalenjin—Gachagua said, “This government is a company that has shares. There are owners who have the majority of shares, some with just a few, while others have none. You invested in this government, and you must reap.” In February this year, speaking in Nyeri, mostly inhabited by Kikuyu, he said, “Our community must benefit from this government because we voted overwhelmingly for President Ruto.”

Such comments were seen as implying that only the tribes that supported Ruto, deserve government appointments and development projects, sparking accusations of tribal favouritism. But Gachagua’s practice of communalist politics was fully backed by Ruto himself, who said earlier this year at a rally with Gachagua by his side that the residents of Murang’a—regarded as the Kikuyu heartland—are “major shareholders” of the government.

Ruto has a long history of inciting tribalism. He was indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for inciting ethnic hatred in Kenya’s 2007-2008 post-election violence. He played a key role in planning and organizing tribalist violence at that time against the Kikuyu, which left over 1,200 dead and over 600,000 internally displaced. Kindiki was part of Ruto’s legal defense team. The case was eventually dropped after witnesses disappeared, and the Washington lost interest in backing Ruto’s prosecution once he became deputy president under the government of Uhuru Kenyatta (2013–2022).

Throughout the impeachment process, the only moment workers and the rural masses have had any say was during the public hearings on the impeachment, a required process to impeach a deputy president. The public hearings across the country rapidly backfired on Ruto, as they turned into a referendum on the whole government. Thousands turned out in public forums, once again cutting across tribal lines like during the Gen-Z protests. Many chanted “do away with the bus conductor and the driver”, “No Gachagua, No Ruto”, and “Ruto must go!”

Ruto meanwhile is continuing to escalate privatisations to pay back the IMF. It has imposed a 30-year Ketraco-Adani deal worth $641 million. Under this agreement, the Indian conglomerate Adani will manage Kenya’s energy transmission infrastructure for three decades, before handing it over back to Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO)—the state-owned corporation in Kenya responsible for building and operating high-voltage electricity transmission infrastructure. It comes months after the deal with Adani to run Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Kenya’s main airport, via a 30-year build, operate and transfer arrangement, widely opposed by airport workers who have repeatedly gone on strike.

Ruto is also set to implement a new tax policy by December 2024 that will require mobile money platforms widely used across Kenya, such as M-Pesa, and banks to link their numbers to the Kenya Revenue Authority, a move aiming to levy new taxes on untapped transactions used by tens of millions of Kenyans.

The installation of Kindiki as deputy president proves that the entry of the ODM opposition into government was not aimed at lessening austerity, attacks on democratic rights and its alliance with US imperialism. Ruto’s aim was to defuse the protests while preparing to escalate repression. He has now installed as the second highest ranking position in power, with the backing of ODM, the person most associated with the police violence against the Gen-Z protests.

Kenya riot police stand guard as stranded passengers wait for their delayed flights out of JKIA airport after flights were grounded following workers’ protesting a planned deal between the government and a foreign investor, in Nairobi, Kenya, September 11, 2024. [AP Photo/Brian Inganga]

Suharto-era general inaugurated as Indonesia’s next president

Ben McGrath

On Sunday, Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated as the next president of Indonesia for a five-year term, replacing outgoing president, Joko Widodo. An ex-special forces general and son-in-law of the former dictator Suharto, Prabowo had a long and murderous career in the military before transitioning to politics. His rise to the presidency is a significant warning to the working class in Indonesia.

Indonesia's newly-inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto, left, walks with his predecessor Joko Widodo as they inspect honor guards during handover ceremony at Merdeka Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024 [AP Photo/Achmad Ibrahim]

Prabowo was elected in February, taking 58.59 percent of the vote and defeating his two rivals, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, who received 24.95 percent and 16.47 percent of the vote respectively. The election itself was anti-democratic, with eligible candidates required to have the support of parties holding at least 20 percent of seats in parliament or who received at least 25 percent of the vote in the previous election. 

Any socialist, communist, or even left-leaning political parties or candidates face prosecution under Suharto’s 1966 law banning communism, which has been kept on the books by all subsequent administrations.

Prabowo came to office after serving as defense minister under Widodo since 2019 and is expected to continue many of the policies of the previous administration. Prabowo previously ran for president against Widodo in 2014 and 2019, then received the implicit backing of the now-former president, who increasingly concentrated power in the hands of the presidency during his ten years in office. 

Widodo all but openly campaigned for Prabowo, ignoring constitutional restrictions on presidential involvement in elections. The new vice president is Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. 

At his swearing-in ceremony, Prabowo offered empty phrases about unity and working for “all Indonesians.” However, he is a representative of the political-military elite that came to power during Suharto’s New Order dictatorship. Suharto seized power through a bloody, CIA-backed coup in 1965 that involved the mass murder of more than one million members of the Indonesian Communist Party, workers and peasants by military forces and right-wing militias and thugs.

Prabowo, who leads the Gerindra Party, is an extremely wealthy businessman along with his even wealthier brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who has helped finance Prabowo’s political ambitions. In 2008, Gerindra split from Golkar, the ruling party of Suharto’s regime.

As social and economic conditions decline and the danger of a US-instigated war against China looms, the Indonesian ruling class believes Prabowo is best equipped to suppress workers’ growing anger. Highlighting this, Prabowo made a thinly-veiled threat against his political opponents in May, stating: “It’s fine for those who don’t wish to collaborate. If there are any who prefer to be onlookers from the sidelines, they are welcome to do so… However, if you choose not to cooperate, please do not interfere.”

From 1974 to 1998, Prabowo served in the military, with nearly all of his time spent in the Indonesia special forces known as Kopassus, which he led as its general commander from 1995 to 1998. He supported the Suharto regime by violently suppressing discontent and carrying out bloody operations across the country. Prabowo has been implicated in atrocities in East Timor, West Papua, Aceh Province, the suppression of protests in the 1990s, and the kidnapping and murder of activists as Suharto’s regime came to an end in 1998. In particular, he was involved in the Kraras Massacre in 1983 in East Timor that left more than 200 civilians and noncombatants dead. 

While Prabowo denies his involvement in these crimes, Gerry van Klinken, a researcher on Indonesia, wrote of Kopassus and Prabowo during his first presidential campaign in 2014 that “this force was the New Order’s most trusted, most capable, iron fist. It is a miracle we know anything at all about [Prabowo’s] activities—elite forces mostly work in secret.”

Prabowo is also a US-trained killer, having received instruction at Fort Bragg in North Carolina in 1980 and Fort Benning, Georgia in 1985. Prabowo was also married to Suharto’s daughter Titiek from 1983 to 2001 and used his connections with Suharto to act with impunity.

Prabowo’s bloody history and close connections to the US government initially proved too exposing for Washington, the supposed defender of “democracy” and “human rights” around the world. It sought to distance itself from Prabowo after the collapse of the Suharto regime, denying him a visa to enter the US during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. 

After Prabowo became defense minister, this quickly changed. Prabowo was embraced by the Trump administration amid the growing drive to war against China, which has included whipping up tensions in the South China Sea. He visited the US in 2020 for talks at the Pentagon with then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who hailed Prabowo as “our counterpart, in a very important relationship.”

The Biden administration similarly embraced Prabowo, who has held numerous talks with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, including at the Pentagon in August 2023. Biden quickly congratulated Prabowo in a phone call after his election was confirmed in March and sent a delegation to the inauguration ceremony on Sunday. It was led by Washington’s UN ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield and included Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, and Daniel Kritenbrink, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

Washington is attempting to coax Indonesia closer into its orbit in order to include the country in its war planning. The Indonesian ruling class, however, postures as “non-aligned,” not least because of China’s economic weight in the country and the region. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner and Chinese companies have significant investment in the country. 

Prabowo declared during his inauguration address: “We will take on the baton of leadership to make Indonesia a strong, prosperous, and independent nation. We do not wish to disturb other countries, just as we expect no other nations to disturb us.” 

As tensions grow in the region as a result of US provocations, this is becoming increasingly untenable. While Indonesia has no territorial dispute with China, Beijing’s ten-dash-line overlaps with Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone around the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea. Washington will no doubt look to exploit this fact to cajole and push Indonesia into taking a stronger stance against Beijing. 

In the period between the election and his inauguration, Prabowo visited or met with officials from countries including China, Japan, Russia and Australia. Prabowo, though, met with US officials on seven occasions, more than any other country. This included a June meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Amman, Jordan, during which Prabowo falsely postured as a defender of the Palestinian people. 

Prabowo reiterated this phony stance on Sunday, including a declaration of support for Palestine in his inauguration address. In spite of his own bloody history, he hypocritically claimed: “We will stand against all colonialism and we will defend the interests of oppressed people worldwide.” 

During his meeting in June with Blinken, however, Prabowo expressed support for a phony ceasefire plan in Gaza proposed by the Biden administration, specifically designed to cover up the fact that the US has armed Israel to the teeth and provided the support necessary for the fascistic Netanyahu regime to wage genocide against the Palestinians. 

That Prabowo has felt it necessary to express support for the Palestinians reflects the widespread anger and disgust with Israel’s genocide that exists among the Indonesian working class, itself the victim of imperialism and colonialism during the 20th century. Prabowo’s support for Washington, and by extension for Israel, demonstrates what it means to be “non-aligned”: effectively turning a blind eye to imperialist war and genocide, regardless of claims of sympathy, in order to further the interests of the capitalist class.

IMF runs into deepening debt crisis and contradictions of global capitalism

Nick Beams

It is the result of the intensification of the contradiction between this historically progressive process with the outmoded nation-state system, which each of the imperialist powers, with the US in the lead, seeks to resolve by means of war.

It cannot be resolved under capitalism unless world war is considered be a “solution,” but only by the advance to a new and higher form of society, international socialism.

Of course, such a perspective, the only rational solution, cannot be advanced by the head of the IMF, one of the chief defenders of the capitalist order and so Georgieva advanced a totally unattainable perspective.

She said the reality of “fragmentation” should not become “an excuse to do nothing to prevent a further fracturing of the global economy” and that her appeal at the meeting would be “to work together, in an enlightened way to lift our collective prospects.”

A similar, equally bankrupt, perspective marked an editorial by the Financial Times (FT) on the IMF-World Bank meeting. Noting the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the two bodies at the Bretton Woods conference of 1944 towards the end of World War 2, it said they had “filled a void where coordination was lacking.”

As the IMF and the World Bank gathered for the annual meeting, they confronted a new set of challenges that risked undoing what has been accomplished.

The conditions of intensifying trade war, a worsening situation in developing countries, problems of climate change, shocks from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and mounting debt problems, the FT said, underscored why global cooperation is such a “precious commodity” and that international problems “require international solutions.”

The world facing the IMF and the World Bank looked very different from today, it concluded, but the “spirit in which they were forged at Bretton Woods remains as important as ever.”

Global public debt to hit $100 trillion

Nick Beams

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that global public debt will reach over $100 trillion by the end of this year, equivalent to 93 percent of global GDP, and hit 100 percent by the end of this decade.

International Monetary Fund annual meeting in Washington, 2022. [AP Photo/Patrick Semansky]

The forecast, set out in a summary of the Fiscal Monitor Report prepared for meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week, made clear that stabilising debt levels in the countries where it is growing fastest will require reductions in government spending on a scale larger than anything seen in the past.

The rise in debt levels is accelerating, having increased by 10 percentage points relative to global GDP since 2019, before the pandemic hit.

While the summary noted that in some countries debt levels were stabilising, about two thirds of the total, they would nevertheless remain “well above levels seen before the pandemic.”

But pointing to the scope of the problem it continued: “Countries where debt is not predicted to stabilise account for more than half of global debt and about two thirds of global GDP.”

These include the US, the UK, Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa. It called for immediate action saying any delay “will make the required adjustment even larger.”

While it was not dealt with directly in the summary of the report, this crisis is centred in the US where government debt is rapidly approaching $36 trillion and one dollar in every seven is used just to pay interest on past debts.

The IMF has called for urgent action.

“Waiting is risky: country experiences show that high debt can trigger adverse market reactions and constrains room for budgetary manoeuvre in the face of negative shocks.”

In short, the longer there is a delay in what the IMF considers to be necessary action, the greater the danger of a financial crisis.

The scale of the reduction it has advocated is unprecedented.

“Cumulative fiscal adjustment”—a euphemism for continuous cuts in government spending—amounting to 3.0-4.5 percent of GDP would be needed to stabilise or reduce debt, it said.

“The magnitude of the required fiscal adjustment is higher than that currently projected, and almost twice the size of past adjustments, especially in countries where debt is not projected to stabilise.”

In other words, the kind of cuts in government spending which the IMF says must now be caried out will put into the shade the previous cuts made in vital social services, such as health, education and income support.

As is often the case, the IMF report tried to cover its prescriptions with window-dressing references to the need for the maintenance of social safety needs and the safeguarding of public investment to limit the negative impact on output.

It referred to gradual but sustained adjustment that would “strike a balance between debt vulnerabilities and maintaining the strength of private demand” and warned that “fast-track consolidation” would require “politically unfeasible hikes in tax rates as well as spending cuts.”

However, the very next sentence in the report contradicted this assessment of a gradual reduction.

It said that “economies with high risk of debt distress,” that is some of the largest economies in the world, and “those that have lost market access,” that is some of the poorest where at present interest payments alone already outweigh spending on items such as health and education, needed “front-loaded adjustment.”

In other words, debt adjustments had to begin with a frontal assault on spending.

The issuing of the summary of the report well in advance of the meeting convening, somewhat contrary to normal practice at the twice-yearly conferences, is an indication that the IMF regards the issue of government debt as a central priority.

This is highlighted by the headline of an IMF Blog posting on the report, which read “Global public debt is probably worse than it looks.”

It noted that “past experience suggests that debt projections tend to underestimate actual outcomes by a sizable margin. Realised debt-to-GDP ratios five years ahead can be 10 percentage points of GDP higher than projected on average.”

The IMF said that a new “debt at risk” model showed that “in a severely adverse scenario global public debt could reach 115 percent of GDP in three years—nearly 20 percentage points higher than currently projected.”

And to underscore the demand for urgent action, the blog post said that if public debt is actually higher than it looks, “current fiscal efforts are likely smaller than needed.”

This point was emphasised in the summary which said that “risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the downside and much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required.”

Risk factors identified by the IMF include weaker economic growth, tighter financing conditions, economic and political uncertainty and spillover effects from “greater policy uncertainty in systematically important countries, such as the United States.”

The report also pointed to “sizable unidentified debt” arising from losses in state-owned ventures which increased sharply during periods of financial stress.

The crisis in government debt is part of a process stretching across the entire economy and its financial system which has been created by the ability of banks and finance houses to gorge on the ultra-cheap money provided by the world’s major central banks from 2008 to 2022 when interest rates were lifted.

In a comment piece published in the Financial Times yesterday under the headline “The great wall of debt,” Michael Howell, the managing director at the London-based firm Crossborder Capital, wrote that “we are already walking into the foothills of another crisis.”

Next year and in 2026, he said, investors would have to confront the problem of refinancing debt taken out when interest rates were at rock bottom.

“Similar refinancing tensions have helped trigger several past financial meltdowns such as the 1997‒98 Asian crisis and the 2008‒2009 financial crisis.”

Howell challenged what he called the “standard textbook argument” that viewed capital markets as mechanisms for financing productive capital spending. That was not the case and “under the current weight of world debt, estimated by the Institute of International Finance to be $335 trillion in the first quarter, they have turned into huge debt refinancing mechanisms.”

In a world dominated by debt refinancing, he continued, around three out of four trades in financial markets simply refinance existing debts. This means that “a whopping near $50 trillion of global debt must be rolled over on average each year.”

Escalating funding crisis in New Zealand public health system

John Braddock

In the New Zealand city of Dunedin about 35,000 people protested on September 28 against funding cuts to the new hospital. The march attracted a quarter of the city’s population, mobilised in response to an announcement by the National Party-led government that the rebuild would be scaled back amid budget “blowouts.”

Protest in Dunedin against hospital cuts [Photo: Dunedin City Council]

A new hospital had been promised by the previous Labour government and its “delivery” featured in National’s 2023 election campaign. The aging hospital, which serves 300,000 people and provides a teaching facility for the Otago Medical School, leaks and is infested with asbestos.

Health Minister Shane Reti and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop said the rebuild could not be delivered within the $1.88 billion budget and would cost up to $3 billion, which was “simply unaffordable.” The main inpatient building will be reduced, or dumped altogether, in favour of retrofitting.

Within a week Vital Healthcare Property Trust, a private company that builds and leases hospitals, including in Australia, was “putting its hand up” to anchor the Dunedin project. Fund manager Aaron Hockly told Radio NZ (RNZ) they would look at breaking up the build, acquiring part of it and leasing it back to the government. “There’d be a whole range of contractual projections for the state, and essentially they would pay us rent,” he declared.

The privatisation “offer” emerges as the public health system faces a rapidly worsening crisis including long-term underfunding, lack of staffing and unmet need. In July, the government replaced the board of Health New Zealand Te Whatu Ora (HNZ) with a commissioner, former private hospital chief executive Lester Levy, who was tasked with making $1.4 billion in “savings,” to be achieved largely through 1,600 job cuts.

A briefing to parliament released early this month raised the forecast deficit to $1.76 billion. Despite “interventions” by HNZ focused on “short-term restructuring,” it was losing $147 million every month. Spending on doctors however dropped almost $90 million in August compared to June when it had peaked at $360 million. The spend on nurses dropped by $40 million.

HNZ’s total funding for the latest financial year was up $1.5 billion to $27.2 billion—but still below inflation. The senior doctors’ union, the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, released a report in May revealing that the health spend as a percentage of GDP had “flatlined” since 2010, with one in three New Zealanders now missing out on healthcare of some kind.

Cuts to pay and conditions for nurses and clinicians now underway include a reduction in pay rates for temporary locums by as much as 40 percent. HNZ has also called for some staff to take three weeks’ mandatory leave—without pay if workers do not have sufficient leave accrued—over Christmas to “keep the lights on.” Doctors at Hutt Hospital near Wellington have recently been instructed to make beds and clean medical equipment, on top of their busy patient workloads.

Frontline hospital services are in a state of near collapse. Dargaville Hospital, which services the Northland region, was without a doctor most nights over the week of October 11, according to RNZ. A leaked management memo warned there would be no doctor or nurse practitioner on duty overnight for the period as well as “a number of gaps” in the roster for the remainder of the month.

Contingency plans included the use of telehealth—a service provided by a private business, allowing nurses to talk to an off-site doctor by phone or video call—and a lowered threshold for transferring patients to Whangārei Hospital. Reti’s office was forced to quash rumours that Dargaville Hospital could be closed down.

Northland, a region with some of the worst rural poverty, is facing an outbreak of whooping cough—a highly contagious disease which can hospitalise and even kill babies and infants. Numbers have been rising sharply since August, including 14 cases in one week. While the disease is vaccine preventable, only 65 percent of the region’s children are fully vaccinated at 24 months. HNZ is now warning of a “high risk” of the outbreak spreading nationwide.

Across the hospital system, wait times for medical assessment, surgery and other treatments are a nightmare for thousands of patients. By May, patients waiting more than 4 months for a first specialist assessment had jumped to more than 65,000. Those waiting longer than 4 months for treatment reached 33,000, including thousands waiting for more than a year.

Emergency departments are overflowing. During the winter flu season people often wait up to 12 hours in A&E departments at Wellington’s two main hospitals. In August leaked data for the year to April 2024 showed more than 400 patients nationwide had waited at least 48 hours in an emergency department—an “indictment on the health system that is risking lives,” one senior emergency doctor told Stuff.

According to Otago University epidemiologist Michael Baker, cost cutting means the country is ill prepared for an outbreak of a new COVID variant. The highly transmissible COVID-19 sub-variant XEC, already in about 30 other countries and spreading rapidly, has arrived in New Zealand.

Baker said that COVID-19 is already the number one infectious disease killer, causing 1,000 deaths annually and hospitalising about 10,000. People under 30 years of age, including health workers and teachers, are unable to get booster shots and the vaccines that are available are not up to date. Free RAT tests are no longer provided, meaning low-income people are “missing out.” By not investing in prevention, Baker warned, “you see the consequences at the hospital door” and in increasing mortality rates.

A process of privatisation is underway as more people are signing up for expensive private insurance, even in a cost-of-living crisis. Newsroom reported in September that Southern Cross, the country’s largest private health insurer, added a net 15,196 new members in the year to the end of June, taking its total membership to 955,301—almost one in five New Zealanders. The company’s CEO Nick Astwick told RNZ that private insurance will be part of the solution to the “massive demand” for health as the country ages.

A Kantar survey for Southern Cross showed 84 percent of people were concerned about not having access to quality affordable healthcare. Two-thirds said they had experienced a long-term impact to their physical and mental health from COVID-19. Half of Southern Cross members had made a claim on their health insurance in the last year, up from a third prior to the pandemic in 2019. The cost of claims ballooned in 2023, due to rising prices, higher volumes and more claims for expensive procedures. 

Sections of the ruling elite and media are agitating over “affordability” of public health. Broadcaster Ryan Bridge last week openly asked: if a doctor has two patients equally ill, one aged 40 and the other 90, “who should get treated first? “The obvious answer,” he declared, “is one person has had 90 years on this planet… We have to [discriminate] on who’s sickest, who’s closest to death, all that sort of stuff.”

The rationing of services is a deliberate policy accelerating under the far-right National Party-led government’s austerity agenda. This includes the sacking of thousands of public sector workers, cuts to social welfare benefits, and a policy to reintroduce privately-operated Charter schools.