Chinese slowdown continues amid plans for major job cuts

Nick Beams

Further evidence of the slowdown in the Chinese economy has emerged, with activity in both manufacturing and services falling to their lowest levels since the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.

The official purchasing managers’ index in manufacturing dropped to 49 in February from 49.8 the previous month—50 indicates the boundary between expansion and contraction. The PMI for the services sector dropped to 52.7 last month, its lowest level since December 2008.

The official manufacturing PMI has now fallen for seven months in a row and the privately-run Caixin PMI index has also declined. He Fan of the Caixin Insight group said employment numbers had fallen at the sharpest rate since January 2009 as companies looked to downsize in order to cut costs.

Job cuts are set to deepen over the longer term, especially in the state-owned companies at the heart of China’s industrial economy.

Speaking to a press conference on Monday, the minister of human resources, Yin Weimin, said some 1.8 million workers in the steel and coal industries could lose their jobs as a result of government plans to cut overcapacity.

The Chinese steel industry, which accounts for more than half of global output, reduced production last year for the first time since 1981 and the government plans to cut production by 150 million tonnes by 2020, resulting in 500,000 steel job losses, with 1.3 million to go in coal.

According to a report from Reuters, the coal and steel cuts are part of a wider plan to axe between 5 and 6 million jobs over the next two to three years, with the figure likely to go even higher. In addition to steel and coal, the cuts are aimed at key industrial sectors, including cement, glassmaking and shipbuilding. Reuters reported that sources with ties to the government leadership were reluctant to speak openly because of fear of “sparking social unrest.”

In a sign of official concern over the immediate situation and falling growth rates, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced on Monday that it was cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.5 percentage points to 17 percent. By reducing the amount of cash that commercial banks have to keep in reserve, the central bank hopes they will increase lending and boost economic activity—this is the government’s domestic policy objective.

But the move underscores the thin line financial authorities are treading as they seek to meet international objectives, while keeping control of the economy and financial system. They are trying to prevent a fall in the value of the renminbi, also known as the yuan, amid signs of an increasing capital outflow. Yet the reserve ratio reduction will have the opposite effect: to put downward pressure on the value of the currency.

Pointing to the contradictory forces in economic policy, the Financial Times reported that Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said the PBoC move on reserves indicated it was “leaning toward the domestic policy objective,” possibly in the belief that foreign exchange measures could control capital flows.

At the same time, Chinese authorities have committed themselves to renminbi stability, lest a sudden plunge add to the turbulence in global financial markets.

Instability was in evidence yesterday when 10-year Japanese government bonds sold at a negative yield for the first time in history. The Financial Times described it as the crossing of a “financial rubicon” and “the latest sign of a worldwide collapse in borrowing costs which has upended assumptions about the workings of financial markets, as policymakers take ever more drastic steps to stimulate economic growth.”

This “upending” follows the decision by the Bank of Japan at the end of January to initiate a policy of negative interest rates on new deposits lodged with it by commercial banks. It is estimated that about one quarter of the global economy is operating under a zero or negative interest rate regime.

On Monday, yields on German bunds, the equivalent of US treasury bonds, dropped to their lowest level in 10 months, drawing closer to the record low set last April.

The market move, the result of investors moving into purchases of government debt, lifting their price and so driving down the yield (the two move in an inverse relationship to each other), came after data showed a return of deflation in the euro zone. Consumer prices dropped by 0.2 percent in February, after a rise of 0.3 percent in January.

HSBC chief European economist Karen Ward said the inflation data “surprised strongly to the downside” and that this added to the call by European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi for it to act decisively.

The ECB governing council meets later this month and may initiate further monetary easing policies. But if such policies are carried out, it seems more likely that, rather than providing a boost, they will just add to the growing turbulence in the way that the Japanese move to negative interest rates has done. Financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned that the business models of the banks and other large institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies, cannot operate in a world where the return on government debt is zero or even negative.

Fears of where the global economy is heading were the subject of an op-ed piece by former British Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls in the Financial Times today.

While things had not yet reached a crisis point, he wrote, “economic confidence is clearly draining fast on both sides of the Atlantic.”

“Stagnating growth, fragile investor confidence, fears of competitive devaluation, spreading mistrust, isolationist politicians flourishing in the polls—the echoes of the 1930s should be enough to focus minds on making the case for cooperation, open markets and finding new policies to deliver more inclusive economic growth.”

This is what made the G-20 meeting last weekend all the more worrying, he continued, as finance ministers fell out with each other, “China blaming Japan, America blaming Europe and the Germans blaming everyone but themselves.”

Like all would-be reformers of global capitalism, Balls hopes that a solution to mounting economic problems can be found if only politicians see reason and adopt a different mind-set. The increasingly fractious political and economic relations are not the result of intellectual deficiency. Rather, they are expression of the irresolvable contradiction between the globally-integrated economy and the system of rival capitalist nation-states and great powers—a contradiction which is deepening as recessionary tendencies intensify.

Primary election results highlight US political crisis

Patrick Martin

Billionaire demagogue Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took significant leads in the contests for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations, based on results of primaries and caucuses held in 12 states on Tuesday.

Trump won seven of the 11 states with Republican contests, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia, with Senator Ted Cruz carrying his home state of Texas and neighboring Oklahoma, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida winning the caucuses in Minnesota. The outcome of the Alaska caucuses was still undetermined as of this writing.

Clinton took seven out of 11 states where Democrats went to the polls, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders won his home state as well as Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma.

NBC News projected that Clinton would win 525 delegates and Sanders 335, bringing their total of elected delegates to 641 and 401 respectively. Clinton has a huge lead of 425 to 22 among so-called super delegates—members of Congress, state officials and members of the Democratic National Committee—giving her a combined total of 1,066, about half way to the total required for nomination.

The delegate totals in the Republican race showed a less decisive lead for Trump, but over a highly fragmented opposition. The belief is growing that even if Trump fails to win a majority of delegates in the primary contests, no other candidate will, and the nomination will be decided at the Republican National Convention in July.

With the nomination contest in the big business parties now close to the one-third mark, with primaries or caucuses having been held in 15 of the 50 states, the US political system has clearly entered into an historic crisis, marked by unprecedented political polarization.

The Republican Party is revealed as the incubator of a fascistic movement. The Trump campaign represents the union of reactionary, racist and militaristic politics and the gangster economics personified by the real estate speculator-turned politician. More important than any of the specific policies he advocates is his promotion of authoritarianism: Trump as the great man who will call the shots in Washington.

This was symbolized on the night of the March 1 primaries when Trump discarded the usual victory rally, where the candidate thanks his supporters, in favor of a press conference, staged in quasi-presidential style in front of a bank of American flags and held in the ballroom of Trump’s own luxury hotel in Palm Beach, Florida.

He was introduced by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has made the degrading transition from campaign rival to cup bearer and court jester.

Trump was asked about criticisms from Republican congressional leaders of his refusal to promptly disavow the support of Ku Klux Klan figure David Duke. He replied by dismissing the criticism, then warning House Speaker Paul Ryan that if he crossed President Trump, he would “pay a tremendous price.”

As one observer, former House Republican Whip Tom Delay, commented on MSNBC, Trump appeared ignorant of the constitutional separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judicial branches, and seemed to be running for king rather than president.

While Trump represents the rise of a personalist, authoritarian movement on the right, broad sections of the population have given their support to the campaign of Bernie Sanders, demonstrating that there are large numbers of people who are moving to the left and inclined towards socialism, but who are trapped in the Democratic Party for lack of a visible alternative.

More than two million votes were cast on March 1 for Sanders, a self-described “democratic socialist.” On top of this, the Sanders campaign reported that in the month of February it raised $42 million, virtually all of it from small donations coming over the Internet. This is more than double the amount raised in January and a record sum for any US presidential campaign.

The United States is becoming politically polarized to an extraordinary degree. The danger is that while the millions backing Sanders are sincerely looking for an alternative to the domination of Wall Street, Sanders is not. He functions as a longtime trusted agent of the Democratic Party, seeking to trap this broad movement to the left and keep it confined within the political straitjacket of the two-party system.

If Clinton and Trump become the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties, the candidates of both capitalist parties will be deeply unpopular. A CNN/ORC poll published Monday found that Trump was regarded unfavorably by 59 percent of those polled, while 53 percent had a negative view of Clinton. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found 49 percent “very negative” towards Trump and 39 percent “very negative” towards Clinton—triple the level of such feelings toward the Democratic and Republican candidates in 2008.

Trump makes an appeal, in a very right-wing form, to the tremendous sense of frustration and anger building up among workers and sections of the middle class after years of economic stagnation, financial crisis, the loss of jobs, and the deterioration of social services and infrastructure, through both Republican and Democratic administrations.

At his press conference Tuesday night, he denounced what he called “Third World” conditions in the United States, while indicting Hillary Clinton as sharing the responsibility, as part of the Obama administration, for the deteriorating conditions of life in America.

Sanders offers no alternative because, in the final analysis, he is committed to the Democratic Party and supporting its presidential nominee, whether Clinton or someone else, and its right-wing, pro-Wall Street program. He defends the Obama administration, which has presided over an intensification of social inequality at home while expanding the military operations of American imperialism around the world.

Trump faces many obstacles to his rise to power. The initial success of his campaign has brought the political crisis in the Republican Party to a head, with leading figures denouncing him and declaring they could not support him as the nominee. At the same time, he has received his first top-level endorsements, beginning with Christie and including two governors, a senator and four congressmen, with more likely to come after his Super Tuesday victories.

Whatever the immediate outcome of the Trump campaign, however, it is the inevitable byproduct of the decay of the political culture in America, embracing both capitalist parties and the entire political, media and corporate establishment.

Since the 1960s, when Nixon sought to co-opt the Southern segregationists and the George Wallace movement, the Republican Party has encouraged and drawn sustenance from the most reactionary, racist and chauvinist tendencies in American society.

The growing intimacy between the Republican Party and semi-fascist elements has long been the dirty secret of official American politics. Both the Democratic Party and the corporate-controlled media have sought to cover this up, downplaying periodic eruptions such as the presidential campaigns of Patrick Buchanan, the close ties between Southern Republicans and white supremacist groups, and, more recently, the rise of the Tea Party and the “birthers” (those, Donald Trump most prominent among them, who claimed that Barack Obama was born in Kenya and therefore not eligible to become president).

Imperialism intensifies pressure on Russia and China

Andre Damon

Earlier this month, the International Committee of the Fourth International published a statement, "Socialism and the Fight Against War," which analyzed the economic and political contradictions of world imperialism that underlie the growing danger of a global conflagration.

The International Committee called attention to the mounting threat of a military confrontation between the United States and both Russia and China. It warned: “The American ruling class has drawn the conclusion that the nuclear-armed states in Beijing and Moscow must be brought to heel, sooner rather than later. Washington’s objective is to reduce China and Russia to the status of semi-colonial client states…”

The statement of the International Committee was published on February 18. Exactly one week later, on February 25, General Philip Breedlove, commander of US forces in Europe, released his Command Posture Statement, which came close to an official declaration that war with Russia is now viewed as all but inevitable. He declared, “The Russian problem set is not going away, and presents a new long-term challenge… Russia poses an existential threat to the United States and to the NATO alliances as a whole.”

On February 25, Admiral Harry Harris, who heads the United States Pacific Command, declared that a Chinese declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea would be ignored by American military forces. As if to underscore the warning to both China and Russia, the US Air Force later that day test-fired a Minuteman 3 nuclear missile from California to a testing range in the Pacific—the second test in a week.

In examining imperialist efforts to weaken Russia and China, the International Committee also called attention to the promotion by imperialism of secessionist movements, based on ethnic-religious and national-linguistic tensions, in both countries. This assessment has been confirmed in an article published in the new March-April issue of Foreign Affairs. In a commentary entitled “Eurasia’s Coming Anarchy,” Robert D. Kaplan—a leading geo-strategist for US imperialism and one of the architects of the invasion of Iraq—argues that the deepening economic crisis in both Russia and China is likely to result in deep internal tensions. These, he writes, will take the form of growing demands for national autonomy by various ethnic, religious and linguistic groups.

Russia, Kaplan states, will be thrust into “turmoil” that “could cause [it] to fragment yet again.” He calls attention to “the heavily Muslim North Caucasus, along with areas of Russia’s Siberian and Far Eastern districts, distant from the center and burdened by bloody politics,” which “may begin loosening their ties to Moscow in the event of instability inside the Kremlin itself.”

As for China, Kaplan stresses “the growing ethnic tensions in this vast country." He continues: "To some degree, the Han-dominated state of China is a prison of various nations, including the Mongols, the Tibetans, and the Uighurs, all of whom have in various degrees resisted central control.” Kaplan concludes, “Today, Uighur militants represent the most immediate separatist threat.”

China’s Uighur minority constitutes only some 10 million of China’s 1.3 billion people. But the Uighurs are the largest ethnic group in China’s relatively sparsely-populated but geopolitically vital Xinjiang province, which spans some 1.6 million square kilometers and borders the strategic countries of Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

Kaplan goes on to note that Uighur separatists “have received training in Iraq and Syria, and as they link up with the global jihadist movement, the danger will grow.”

Kaplan is not alone in drawing the connection between the war in Syria and secessionist movements in Russia and China. In an article published in December 2015 in the London Review of Books, journalist Seymour Hersh cited one Washington official as declaring that Turkey, a key US ally in its proxy war in Syria, “has been bringing Uighurs into Syria by special transport while [the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan] has been agitating in favour of their struggle in China.” The US official cited by Hersh said that what he called the “rat line” had led to more than 800 Uighur fighters entering Syria.

Christina Lin, a former Pentagon and State Department official, wrote in September that if the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad were to fall to the Islamist militias, “fighters from Russia’s Chechnya, China’s Xinjiang and India’s Kashmir will then turn their eyes toward the home front to continue jihad, supported by a new and well-sourced Syrian operating base in the heart of the Middle East.”

These comments throw into sharp relief the broader significance of the ongoing conflict in Syria. Just as the United States intelligence forces used their support for the Mujahedeen in the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1980s to organize, fund and train Islamist forces that would ultimately become Al Qaeda, the war in Syria is being used to organize and train Islamist separatist forces that will ultimately target Russia and China for destabilization.

As Kaplan puts it, “As Moscow loses control, the global jihadist movement could take advantage of the vacuum and come to Russia’s outlying regions and to Central Asia.” He adds that “having received training in Iraq in Syria,” these Islamist secessionist movements may “link up to the global jihadist movement.”

He concludes that the result could be “Yugoslavia lite: violence and separatism that begin in one place and spread elsewhere.” In other words, China and Russia could face a repeat of the tactics used by the United States and Western powers to break up Yugoslavia: the fomenting of national-sectarian divisions, which are then packaged as a casus belli in the media and made a pretense for military intervention.

Beginning with US recognition of the independence of Croatia and Slovenia in 1991 and approval for the secession of Bosnia in 1992, the breakup of Yugoslavia was guaranteed by the political intervention of the major powers, which culminated in the 1999 bombing of Serbia.

The ethnic partition of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, which led to the deaths of over a million people, helped create the conditions for the encirclement of Russia and the continuous eastward expansion of NATO. In 1999, NATO added the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, followed in 2004 by Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, and finally Albania and Croatia in 2009. As a result, the frontier of NATO has been moved eastward by over 600 miles.

In the final analysis, the desperate geo-political situation confronting both China and Russia is the outcome of the restoration of capitalism. The measures employed by the capitalist regimes in both countries to counter the threats from US, Japanese and European imperialism—the incitement of national chauvinism, the intensification of state repression and the massive expenditures on military armaments—provide no way out of the crisis.

The working class of Russia and China must recover its revolutionary socialist heritage. It must once again, as it did in the past century, return to the road of revolutionary struggle and overthrow the existing national capitalist regimes. Only on this basis—allied with the international working class—can the masses of Russia and China prevent both imperialist subjugation and the horrors of nuclear war.

The Scandal Of Voter Supression

William John Cox

Ostensibly, universal voting is the ideal of a free and democratic republic; however, barriers have been placed between many citizens and the ballot box ever since the creation of the United States. Many of these obstacles, such as property ownership and the racially-biased poll tax, have been removed. They are, however, being replaced by voter identification (ID) laws and other voter suppression schemes designed to discourage and prevent many, otherwise eligible voters from participating in elections. Voter suppression takes many forms and—in its aggregate—could allow the election of a president in the November 2016 election who is not the choice of the American People.

Voter Suppression. Approximately one quarter of all qualified voters are not registered, and many state laws and administrative practices are aimed at blocking—rather than encouraging—their enrollment. These include the imposition of arbitrarily short deadlines for the submission of voter registration forms; imposing harsh penalties for administrative errors; and even requiring the forms to be printed on very specific weights of paper. On the other hand, some states such as California, automatically register all eligible voters when they apply for driver's licenses, and a number of states now allow online registration.

Other devices to suppress voting involve the unnecessary purging of registration rolls to remove qualified people; the deliberate misallocation of election resources resulting in long lines in low-income and college precincts; misleading voters regarding procedures and locations for voting; and "caging," which involves sending certified letters to voters and striking registrations for those whose letters are returned as undeliverable. Scandalous as these plots may be, they verge on criminal conspiracies when they are directed by politically partisan secretaries of state and other officials who have the responsibility to ensure elections are fair and unbiased.

Although some suppression dirty tricks are bipartisan—four Kerry supporters were convicted of vandalism for slashing the tires of vans intended to transport Republican voters to the polls in 2004—it is primarily Republicans and other conservatives who engage in voter suppression. Many of these individuals and groups consider voting to be a privilege, instead of a right, and they are untroubled by efforts to reduce the voting participation by certain groups, such as racial minorities, students, and the poor, who traditionally vote for Democratic candidates.

The most successful electoral subversion results from voter ID laws passed in many states in the past 15 years. These laws have been enacted—purportedly— to prevent voter fraud, in which an ineligible voter impersonates an eligible voter. Typically, these laws require the presentation of photographic identification, such as a driver's license or passport in order to vote. In truth, these laws are a blatant stratagem to prevent the political opposition from voting.

As the less popular party, many Republicans unabashedly admit the purpose and consequence of these laws. One Republican legislator in Michigan warned, "If we do not suppress the Detroit vote, we're going to have a tough time in this election;" Another legislator believed the Pennsylvania voter ID law would "allow Governor Romney to win the state," while another bragged that the Pennsylvania laws "cut Obama by five percent" and that "voter ID helped a bit in that." The former head of the Florida Republican Party acknowledged that "We've got to cut down on early voting because early voting is not good for us." Presidential candidate Governor John Kasich agreed: "I guess I really actually feel we shouldn't contort the voting process to accommodate the urban—read African-American—voter-turnout machine." Prior to dropping out of the presidential race, Governor Chris Christie said that Republicans need to win gubernatorial races so they can control the "voting mechanism" in the presidential election.

There are millions of otherwise eligible voters in the United States (as many as ten percent) who do not possess acceptable photographic identification. If the reason is a lack of money to pay the licensing fee, voter ID laws have the same effect as the Jim Crow poll tax did in the South. The laws disproportionately affect the young, disabled, seniors, minorities, and the poor and disadvantaged of every race. One rigorous academic study conducted at UC San Diego concluded, "We find that strict voter identification laws do, in fact, substantially alter the makeup of who votes and ultimately do skew democracy in favor of whites and those on the political right."

The reality is that voter fraud is very rare, and when it does occur, it would not be prevented by voter ID laws. An in-depth study by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University involved travel to 40 cities, 21 states, interviews of more than 1,000 people, and reviews of nearly 5,000 public documents. The effort identified only 10 cases of voter impersonation in more than a decade. There were more cases of absentee ballot fraud and registration fraud, which would not have been prevented by the voter ID laws.

The conservative political bias of suppression laws is indicated by the fact that more than half of all state photo ID legislation resulted from the efforts of the conservative, corporate-sponsored, American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). Sixty-two bills based on the model ALEC Voter ID Act have been introduced in state legislatures. Of the 22 states in which new voting restrictions have been passed, 18 have Republican-controlled legislatures.

The underlying racial basis of these laws was revealed by the Brennan Center for Justice which determined that of the 11 states with the highest numbers of African American voters in 2008, seven have since passed voter suppression laws. Of the 12 states with rapidly growing Hispanic populations, nine have enacted new restrictions. Finally, nine of the states formerly supervised by the Voting Rights Acts because of past racial discrimination have passed new voter suppression laws.

With Congress and the state legislatures and judiciaries increasingly controlled by corporations and the financial elite, there is little hope for legislative action or judicial relief to reduce the scandal of voter suppression. In 2008, a conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court approved an Indiana voter ID law—even though it had a partisan basis—because it was not "excessively burdensome" to most voters. The decision followed an earlier one in 2000 in which the Court affirmed that the Constitution "does not protect the right of all citizens to vote, but rather the right of all qualified citizens to vote." Amazingly, the Court shortly thereafter admitted in Bush v. Gore that "the individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote."

A Voters' Bill of Rights. The only way to assure the voting power of the American People and to ensure the United States continues as a representative democracy is to amend the constitution to include a Voters' Bill of Rights. The United States Voters' Rights Amendment (USVRA) not only specifically guarantees a right to cast effective votes in all elections, but it also includes specific provisions regarding voter participation and suppression.

Any lingering doubt about the necessity of a constitutional amendment was quashed by another opinion of the Supreme Court rendered immediately prior to the 2014 midterm elections. The decision reversed a Federal District Court in Texas, which had ruled that the state's voter ID law unconstitutionally prevented more than 600,000 registered Texans from voting. The lower court had found the law was adopted "with an unconstitutional discriminatory purpose" and that it placed "an unconstitutional burden on the right to vote." The conservative majority of the Supreme Court disagreed—directly cutting off the access of more than a half million Texans to the polls and challenging the votes of millions of other Americans subject to similar laws in other states.

Previously, the Texas voter ID law had been blocked by the Voting Rights Act, which required jurisdictions with a history of racial discrimination to obtain permission before changing voting procedures. That provision of the Act was earlier struck down by the Supreme Court in 2013, and Texas officials announced they would begin enforcing the state's new voter ID law.

In her dissent to the 2014 decision, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said, "A sharply disproportionate percentage of those voters are African American or Hispanic." She added that "racial discrimination in elections in Texas is no mere historical artifact."

Whether affected by strict photo ID rules or other forms of voter suppression, the turnout for the 2014 midterm elections was the lowest since 1942. The effect was shown by the difference between Texas—with the most restrictive rules and a 33.6 percent turnout—and Colorado, Washington and Oregon, which permit everyone to vote by mail, and their participation rates of 53, 54, and 69 percent, respectively.

The United States Voters' Rights Amendment is a broad-spectrum treatment regimen specifically formulated to cure a variety of illnesses currently infecting representative democracy in America. Voter encouragement and suppression is covered by Section Three:

The States shall ensure that all citizens who are eligible to vote are registered to vote.

In balancing the public benefit of maximum voter participation with the prevention of voting fraud, Congress and the States shall not impose any unjustifiable restriction on registration or voting by citizens.

The intentional suppression of voting is hereby prohibited and, in addition to any other penalty imposed by law, any person convicted of the intentional suppression of voting shall be ineligible for any public office for a period of five years following such conviction.

Universal voting is also encouraged by Section Eleven, which requires that "Federal elections conducted every second year shall be held on a national voters' holiday, with full pay for all citizens who cast ballots."

Voting Fuels the Flame of Freedom. The scandal of voter suppression corrupts the core of representative democracy, and the quality and effectiveness of political representation is directly related to the percentage of voter participation. Unless representatives are selected by the greatest number and broadest range of voters possible, the processes of government will not reflect the true will of the People. Indeed, if the current trend continues, the United States government will become an irrevocable plutocracy instead of a democracy; government of, by, and for the People will cease to exist; and the flame of freedom—no longer fueled by effective voting—will be extinguished.

New Zealand: Five years after the Christchurch earthquake

Tom Peters & Matthew Carrington

February 22 marked five years since a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck the city of Christchurch and the surrounding Canterbury area in New Zealand’s South Island. The earthquake killed 185 people, destroyed tens of thousands of homes and buildings and caused widespread damage to roads and sewerage systems. It followed a large and damaging quake in September 2010.

Five years on, entire suburbs have been abandoned and large areas of the central city remain rubble-strewn. Since 2011, there have been thousands of aftershocks, compounding the damage. Most recently a quake on February 14 produced further destruction, resulting in more than 2,000 new insurance claims. Overwhelmingly, however, the ruin of the lives of tens of thousands of residents has been caused by the government and corporate response, not the earthquakes themselves.

At the official commemorations in Christchurch’s Botanic Gardens, Governor-General Jerry Mateparae was forced to admit that since the quakes “there has been financial hardship, agonising stress, and years of frustration.” He added: “My hope is that the end of this period is fast approaching, and that these people will be able to carry on with their lives with renewed optimism and energy.” Mayor Lianne Dalziel similarly said “our experience has been traumatic for everyone and for many it will take a lot more time to heal.”

The speakers treated this “traumatic” experience as the inevitable outcome of a natural disaster. In reality, working class people have been abandoned by the National Party government, which has protected the interests of big business, including the insurance industry, and provided grossly inadequate assistance to people whose homes have been damaged or destroyed.

Speaking to Radio NZ, Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee declared that “a huge amount of rebuild work has been done, and a huge amount of residential work also completed, with people getting back to rebuilding their lives.”

For thousands of residents, this is a fraud. The day before the anniversary almost 1,000 people protested in the city centre, demanding an external review of the handling of insurance claims by the government’s Earthquake Commission (EQC). The protesters also called for an official deadline by which insurance companies would have to settle claims.

One protester, Miranda Rout, told Radio NZ she had moved house four times since the quake and “we still don’t know when we’re going to have a home again.” She denounced her insurance company IAG as “a huge multi-billion dollar private entity who have made money off our backs and are still trying to wear everybody down.”

Approximately 5,000 home owners are still waiting for insurers to settle their claims. Many people have been living in overcrowded, badly damaged or makeshift housing for half a decade, leading to health problems from dampness and mould. Due to substandard workmanship, EQC has been forced to re-examine at least 5,500 of its repair jobs.

There have been endless disputes over settlement offers. According to the Insurance Council, 89 percent of property claims have been settled. These settlements, however, are frequently the result of coercion and fall short of what is required to repair, rebuild or buy another house. House prices and rents have both risen by approximately 50 percent since the earthquakes.

A former contract worker who did repair work for EQC and IAG told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s “Lateline” program on February 16 that people had been bullied into accepting repairs that left them “worse off than what they were in the beginning.” She said home owners were told: “‘Sign it or we don’t do it.’ It’s as simple as that. So if you are at the end of your tether and you’ve been dealing with it for three, four years—two years, even—or you’re elderly or you’re unwell ... people just took it.”

New Zealand’s Reserve Bank reported in January that insurance claims for Christchurch’s earthquakes have, on average, taken longer to settle than similar earthquakes in Chile and Japan that occurred around the same time. The report predicts that the overall rebuild of the city—including infrastructure and commercial buildings—will only pass the halfway mark later this year.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Brownlee dismissed criticism of insurance companies, including the EQC and the government-owned company Southern Response, saying they had “been extremely successful and very, very helpful in the overall rebuild.”

There is widespread and palpable hostility to the government over the endless delays. Halfway through Brownlee’s Radio NZ interview on the streets of Christchurch, which was televised online, a passing driver shouted: “Gerry Brownlee you suck! You’ve done a bad job!”

During official commemorations later in the day, John Howland, whose 14-year-old son Jayden died in the 2011 earthquake, hurled a mixture of flour and chocolate at Brownlee’s face. Howland, who was arrested and charged with assault, told media that the government was “heartless ... They’re not taking care of all the [quake] families—like us, and everybody else. There needs to be more support, more communication, and just compassion really.”

Speaking to TVNZ, Labour Party leader Andrew Little closed ranks with Brownlee, denouncing Howland as a “scumbag” and his protest as “despicable.”

The lack of support has left many residents psychologically distressed. Christchurch doctor Jeremy Baker told Radio NZ: “Suicide rates are rising, depression and anxiety are in no way being covered, I think, by present services.” Since 2011, the number of suicide-related emergency callouts in the region has risen by 55 percent.

A study of 320 children aged five to seven by the University of Canterbury found that 64 percent showed one or more symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder at the end of 2015. One in five showed six or more symptoms, but fewer than one in ten had access to counselling.

As part of its spending cuts to welfare and health services throughout the country, the government has drastically reduced funding for psychological services provided by community groups in Canterbury from $1.6 million a year ago to just $200,000. The District Health Board is under pressure to make further cutbacks.

The opposition Labour Party has criticised the cuts and recently called on the government to take over any unresolved insurance claims at the end of the year. However, the party has no fundamental differences with the government’s austerity agenda or the subordination of people’s lives and livelihoods to the profit calculations of the financial and corporate elite.

Mayor Dalziel, a former Labour government minister, has worked closely with the National government to protect big business and impose the cost of the rebuild on the working class. The city council has cut staff, increased rates and begun to sell off assets to help fund its share of the rebuild. Reports commissioned by the council have identified a funding gap of $883 million.

More cuts are inevitable. On February 24, the council received a $603 million insurance payout covering more than 1,600 claims for quake damage to its above-ground assets. The deal, reached after more than a year of negotiations with insurance companies AIG, Axis and R+V, falls well short of the $920 million that the council initially sought.

Five years after the earthquake, the rebuild debacle—in which thousands of lives have been wrecked by the government and big business—stands as an indictment of the rapacious system of private profit that is defended by the entire political establishment.

Bombardier adds to Northern Ireland manufacturing jobs massacre

Harvey Thompson

The Canadian-based airplane and train manufacturer Bombardier is making 7,000 job cuts in its global operations, with over 1,000 of those in its division in Belfast, Ireland.

The company employs 64,000 workers internationally and is one of Northern Ireland’s largest private sector employers, with around 5,500 workers. Many other workers are employed in its supply chain industries.

The corporation announced that 1,080 jobs would go at its Belfast plant, which makes the wings for its new C-Series plane. According to reports, the Belfast workers were informed their jobs were being ended via a text message.

Bombardier’s significance to the regional economy is huge—it accounts for around 7 percent of all manufacturing jobs across Northern Ireland (almost 50 percent of the total number of manufacturing jobs in Belfast itself) and produces 10 percent of Northern Ireland’s total manufacturing exports.

As well as making components for executive jets, four sites in and around Belfast produce parts for other manufacturers such as Rolls Royce.

However, by far the highest-profile department is that responsible for the development and production of composite wings for the Bombardier C Series, which is housed in a £520 million plant officially opened in 2013 by the British Prime Minister David Cameron.

Bombardier is the world’s largest builder of business jets by revenue and the biggest international manufacturer of passenger trains. The Financial Times commented that the firm “faces falling sales during 2016 because of cutbacks in business jet manufacturing. It predicted revenue of $16.5 billion-$17.5 billion in 2016, against $18.2 billion during 2015, less than analysts had been expecting.”

Alain Bellemare, who took over as president and chief executive of Bombardier Inc last year said, “We are turning Bombardier around to make this great company stronger and more competitive.”

Michael Ryan, the Vice-President of Bombardier’s Bombardier Belfast operation, said, “The whole global aerospace world is looking at how they can optimise their cost-base and that includes going to what we would call lower cost countries. If we want to compete being in a global market place then we need to take advantage of that where it’s relevant.”

Another 270 jobs will be cut at other non-aerospace sites in the UK, including Derby, Crewe and Burton-on-Trent.

The announcement at Bombardier’s Belfast division followed large-scale job cuts at tyre giant Michelin in Northern Ireland and cigarette producer, JTI Gallaher. Around 860 jobs are to go at Michelin when it closes its doors in 2018 and a similar number of jobs will be lost at JTI Gallaher when it shuts completely by the end of 2017. A number of other firms, including Caterpillar NI and Schrader Electronics, both based in County Antrim, have made substantial job cuts.

Stephen Kelly of Manufacturing NI said of the combined closures, “One percent of our manufacturers employ almost half of all those who work in manufacturing and 49 percent of turnover.”

Long-established manufacturing jobs such as those in Belfast are being terminated, as firms seek to continually lower their wage bill. Commenting on the spate of recent Belfast redundancies, the Financial Times stated, “One factor common to the three announcements is the companies’ emphasis on the need to become more competitive globally. This suggests that Northern Ireland’s relatively high wages and location at the periphery of the UK and the EU are making the province increasingly uncompetitive.

“In a statement last year, Michelin referred to the ‘heavy logistics costs’ related to manufacturing in Northern Ireland. On Wednesday, Bombardier, referring to its job cuts in Northern Ireland, said ‘it is crucial that we right-size our business in line with market realities’.”

The concern of the union bureaucracy is not with the fate of the workers, but to assist. Peter Bunting, assistant general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions declared that Northern Ireland “urgently needs a comprehensive and ambitious manufacturing strategy”.

The Unite trade union announced its sorrow at “the latest, cruel blow to Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector. The scale of the losses reflect the severe market conditions being experienced by the group, which has led to over 7,000 job losses globally.”

No fight is being taken up to defend any of the jobs, with Unite adding, “The Northern Ireland Executive needs to redouble their efforts and secure alternative employment for those highly skilled workers who will be made redundant. Invest NI [the inward investment agency] must now commit themselves fully to proactively seeking foreign investment in manufacturing.”

Unite makes this bankrupt call despite Invest NI having already offered Bombardier £75 million of assistance between 2002 and 2015.

Fear of a social backlash over the haemorrhaging of jobs has led to sharp political recriminations in the Stormont Assembly, with both the Ulster Unionist Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) calling on the newly appointed Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Enterprise Minister, Jonathan Bell, to resign.

The ruling elite fear a social backlash due to growing social inequality and rising unemployment. In Northern Ireland, 18 to 24-year-olds are 40 percent more likely to be unemployed than in any other region in the United Kingdom.

Mark Dougan, the acting director of the Prince’s Trust charity in Northern Ireland, wrote recently that it is “urgently calling on the Northern Ireland Executive to take bold, decisive action to eradicate long-term youth unemployment by 2020.”

In the Belfast Telegraph article, he noted that this year marks 10 years since the publication of the Ten Year Strategy for Children and Young People in 2006, “which set out a series of aims to help children and young people in Northern Ireland achieve their potential. Dougan concluded, “However, it is a shame that the opportunities for our young have diminished rather than flourished.”

In the past decade, youth unemployment has more than doubled to 21,000. Long-term unemployment has nearly tripled, and the number of young people in employment has fallen by 16 percent to 89,000.

The Belfast base of Bombardier’s operations—the Shorts plant—has historically been one of the plants at which privileges offered to Protestant employees have been used to tie workers politically to the Ulster bourgeoisie.

Unionism has rested on the claim that the interests of Protestant workers in Northern Ireland can be defended through an alliance with British capital. The breakup and decay of this relationship is embodied in the fate of the Shorts plant, once a pioneering company, taken over in 1989 by Bombardier and now an integral part of that corporation’s global operation.

Today, Shorts workers of all religious denominations are forced into global competition with other sections of the Bombardier workforce, in Canada, Germany, Sweden, the US and the UK. This process has created the objective basis for the international unification of the working class.

Past struggles of Bombardier workers were sabotaged by the respective trade union bureaucracies with invocations of defending the “national interest”, in order to justify their deepening collaboration with the financial elite. Unions, aided by the various Stalinist and pseudo-left groupings, have insisted that Bombardier workers have no other option than to pit themselves against their co-workers in other countries. The only way to defend jobs and conditions in any country is by the working class rejecting the nationalism of the trade union bureaucracy and all divisions based on religion, race, region or nation and uniting its struggles through adopting an international socialist perspective.

US, China agree to new UN sanctions on North Korea

Ben McGrath

The United States and China agreed last Thursday to harsh new UN sanctions against North Korea over its recent nuclear and rocket tests. The draft resolution was presented to members of the UN Security Council, with a vote expected soon. The sanctions, pushed by Washington, are designed to further isolate North Korea and cripple its economy.

While the full text of the resolution has not been released, several key points have been made public. Washington’s ambassador to the UN Samantha Power declared that the measures would be the toughest in 20 years. “These sanctions, if adopted, would send an unambiguous and unyielding message to the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] regime. The world will not accept your proliferation. There will be consequences for your actions,” she said.

The US has exploited North Korea’s nuclear programs to justify its military build-up in North East Asia, which is directed primarily at Beijing, not Pyongyang. The latest round of UN measures follow new unilateral US sanctions voted by Congress and approved by Obama last week, which will not only penalise North Korea but companies and individuals doing business with it—above all, in China, Pyongyang’s largest trading partner by far.

The far-reaching UN sanctions threaten to further destabilise the already highly unstable regime in Pyongyang. They include:

•  All UN member states would be required to inspect shipments, whether by land, sea, or air, bound for and departing from North Korea for any banned goods, including those that could be used in its nuclear or rocket programs. The bans would extend to materials that could be used in chemical or biological weapon programs, as well as to tougher restrictions on luxury goods.
  
•  Any companies, such as North Korea’s Ocean Maritime Management Company Limited, suspected of engaging in actions that violate the sanctions would have their port calls or flights barred.
  
•  North Korea would be subject to a full weapons ban, which would apply not only to small arms and other conventional weapons, but to anything that could potentially be used for military purposes, including trucks.
  
•  All financial transactions between North Korea and other countries would be banned and assets frozen if there is a belief that the funds are being used by Pyongyang for its weapon programs. In general, all North Korean financial institutions would be barred from opening new offices or branches overseas. The financial corporations of other nations would similarly be prevented from expanding within North Korea.
  
•  A ban would be imposed on a range of North Korean exports, including gold, titanium ore and rare earth metals. Pyongyang would be able to buy oil and sell coal—a concession to China—but only for “livelihood purposes.” The import of any materials, such as aviation fuel, that could potentially have a military application will also be banned.

As most of North Korea’s trade is with China, the UN sanctions will put enormous pressure on Beijing, which is already being accused by Washington of not doing enough to rein in Pyongyang. The sweeping character of the new sanctions leave plenty of scope for new US accusations that China is aiding North Korea’s weapons programs by allowing the entry of dual-use articles or funds that are being siphoned off for banned purposes.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Bruce Klingner, a former US intelligence official now with the right-wing Heritage Foundation, declared that the restrictions on North Korean exports were “a significant ratcheting up of pressure” that would also raise the question of whether “China is severing or severely curtailing its economic trade with North Korea.” He condemned China for being “lax in enforcing its own export rules, let alone UN resolutions” and turning “a blind eye to North Korean proliferation.”

Choi Gyeong-su, head of the North Korea Resources Institute in Seoul, commented: “You can’t determine which part of the mineral trade is related to people’s livelihoods or not.” But the South Korean government used this very rationale to justify the closure earlier this month of the Kaesong Industrial Complex—a cheap labour zone across the border where South Korean companies employed North Korean workers.

Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo claimed on February 14 that 70 percent of the funds earned at Kaesong had gone to North Korea’s weapon programs. The following day, Hong backtracked and admitted there was no evidence for his claims, but this has not prevented Seoul from continuing to make the allegation.

China has been pushing for a peaceful resolution to the confrontation over North Korea’s weapons programs. Commenting on the draft resolution, Liu Jieyi, Beijing’s UN ambassador, said it should “pave the way for a negotiated solution down the road, not be a stone wall.”

Beijing is deeply concerned that the US is exploiting North Korea’s nuclear and rocket tests to beef up its military presence in South Korea, including nuclear-capable strategic assets and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system. China also fears that a collapse of the North Korean regime could lead to a unified Korea, backed by US troops, directly on its northern border.

The US military is certainly preparing for war to intervene in North Korea. Large-scale annual joint US-South Korea military exercises, designated as Foal Eagle and Key Resolve, will start this month. For the first time, these war games will be based on the new Operational Plan 5015 agreed last year, whose scenarios include preemptive strikes on North Korean military positions and the assassination of officials, as well as the complete seizure of the Korean Peninsula.

General Curtis Scaparrotti, head of US forces in South Korea, spelled out the implications of such a war. He told the House Armed Services Committee last Wednesday: “Given the size of the forces and the weaponry involved, this would be more akin to the Korean War and World War II—very complex, probably high casualty.” Conflict on the Korean Peninsula would inevitably draw in other countries, including China.

The United States is chiefly responsible for the political crisis in Pyongyang and the sharp rise in tensions on the Korean Peninsula, having isolated North Korea for decades and scuttled previous agreements over Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Now as part of its “pivot to Asia” and military build-up against China, the US is deliberately exacerbating a dangerous flashpoint that could trigger a devastating conflict that would engulf the entire region.

2016 - Aviation Scholarship for Women in Aviation

International Civil Aviation Organization Aviation Scholarship

With the objective of enhancing the development of women in aviation, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in conjunction with the International Aviation Women’s Association (IAWA), is offering an Aviation Scholarship for a professional woman in this field.

Candidates who are selected for the ICAO-IAWA Aviation Scholarship will be able to augment their professional experience in aviation by working on and contributing to specific aspects of the ICAO work programme at the international level for a period of nine months.

IAWA is supporting ICAO in its efforts to promote the development of women in aviation by providing voluntary contributions and by assisting in identifying those candidates who meet the requirements for the ICAO-IAWA Aviation Scholarship.

Requirements

·         An advanced university degree (Masters’ level or equivalent), in an aviation-related discipline

·         A minimum of two years of  experience in supporting technical work of an international aviation or aerospace organization, a civil aviation authority,  or similar related organization.

·         Fluency in English is required. Knowledge of any other of the following ICAO languages is an asset:  Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, Spanish.

Details of Assignments

Selected candidates will work under the guidance of experienced professionals in the Air Navigation Bureau at the ICAO Headquarters in Montreal.

The Air Navigation Bureau (ANB) is responsible for providing technical guidance to the Air Navigation Commission (ANC), the Council and the Assembly. ANB provides technical expertise in aviation-related disciplines to States, industry and all elements of the Organization. The Bureau is also responsible for maintaining and implementing the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) and the Global Air Navigation Plan (GASP), including its aviation system block upgrades as well as producing yearly safety and air navigation status reports. The Bureau develops technical studies and proposals for Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs), and Procedures for Air Navigation Services (PANS) for further processing by the governing bodies of ICAO. The Bureau also develops related procedures and guidance material. The Bureau also manages the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) that monitors  all States on a continuous basis.

Illustrative examples of areas of work and responsibilities which will be assigned are shown below, depending on the profiles of the selected candidates. The selected candidate will support activities related to the promotion of women in aviation, including, for example, the Annual ICAO-IAWA Connect event.

•              Support the development of Airport Collaborative Decision Making guidance material

•              Support the development of Air Traffic Flow Management related taxonomy and message set

•              Support the development of a taxonomy for medically related accidents and incidents

•              Develop or improve operational risk management concepts, metrics and analytical methods

•              Develop a database on dangerous goods-related accidents/incidents

•              Support further analysis on indicators contained in the global air navigation report, such as ASBUs implementation and outtake of PBN

•              Conduct a gap analysis on requirements for the provision of ground handling services among ICAO Member States. The analysis may include the collection of practices, analysis of input, surveys and the development of conclusions or recommendations

•              Conduct research and analysis on emerging aviation issues

•              Support airport runway safety team implementation activities

•              Draft material on validity and reliability of aviation language test for inclusion in Doc 9835

•              Mine and analyze ADREP data for incidents and accidents where language proficiency is involved

•              Develop a knowledge concept map for pilots in a phase of flight, and based on knowledge map developed, conduct a critical incident analysis

•              Develop a knowledge concept map for remote pilots in a phase of flight TBD, and based on knowledge map developed, conduct a critical incident analysis.

•              Draft Icing/de-icing/anti-icing manual (Doc 9640)

•              Support the establishment of FF-ICE related provision

•              Support the technical editing of the SWIM concept document

•              Support the technical editing process of the RPAS manual

Please Keep In Mind

·         Duration of assignment:  nine months

·         Living expenses:  a monthly stipend of USD 2,000 will be provided to assist the selected candidate in covering living expenses in Montreal

·         Visa: If required, a letter will be provided by ICAO to selected candidates to assist in obtaining entry visa to Canada (where applicable).

·         Medical insurance: the selected candidate will be required to provide proof of medical coverage for the duration of the Aviation Scholarship.

·         Travel costs:  the selected candidate is required to cover all costs related to travel to Montreal.

Application

If you are interested in being considered for an Aviation Scholarship for nine months at ICAO, you are invited to submit an online application at  ICAO's e-Recruitment website at https://careers.icao.int . 

Deadline for application is 15 March 2016

Timeline for selection

1)       Posting of announcement: 15 February 2016

2)       Closing date for applications:  14 March 2016

3)       Notification to candidates of outcome of their application:  May 2016

4)       Reporting date to Montreal of Selected Candidate:  October 2016

5)       Duration of Aviation Scholarship:  Nine months