ISIS is Facing Near Total Defeat, But It Has Been Beaten and Come Back Before

Patrick Cockburn

Isis has fought desperately and skilfully to hold the Syrian city of Raqqa, under siege by Kurdish-led forces for more than four months, but will soon lose it in the latest defeat for the Islamic fundamentalist movement. Little is left today of the Caliphate declared in 2014, which once ruled most of western Iraq and eastern Syria.

Isis battled far longer than anybody expected for Mosul and Raqqa, but had to fight on multiple fronts against its many enemies and, above all, against the immense firepower of the US, Russian and allied air forces as well as conventional artillery. It was only by pounding large parts of both cities into rubble that the Iraqi security forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been able to prevail.

Hard fought though the battles have been, there is no doubt who has won them and come out on top. Significantly, Isis has not put up much of a fight for Tal Afar west of Mosul or Hawija to the south, which were long term Isis strongholds. Only in Deir ez-Zor province on the Euphrates downriver from Raqqa are there signs that Isis has combat units capable of launching successful counter-attacks. One of these ejected Syrian government forces from Mayadin, a small city in eastern Syria in the last few days.

Governments around the world are asking about the completeness and permanence of the victory over Isis and whether the movement will try to demonstrate that it is undefeated by stepping up terror attacks abroad. Even if the role of Isis in these atrocities is by way of inspiration rather than organisation, they keep its name in the news and show that it still has followers willing to die for its beliefs.

One of the strengths of Isis at the peak of its success in 2014 was that it could fairly claim to have beaten better equipped and more numerous Iraqi and Syrian government forces through divine assistance. After losing most of its territory, this claim can no longer be made. Signs of falling morale are also evident in Hawija, where hundreds of Isis fighters and militants surrendered to the Kurds. This is not happening everywhere: in Raqqa only 15 Isis fighters have surrendered in three weeks.

Isis is suffering heavy defeats but it would be premature to believe that it is totally out of business. Its commanders will have foreseen that, however hard they fought, they would lose Mosul and Raqqa in the end. To fight on they have prepared bunkers, weapons caches and food stocks in the deserts and semi-deserts between Iraq and Syria where they can hope to ride out the storm and perhaps make a comeback in a few years’ time. Isis succeeded in doing this before, after being defeated by the US and anti-Isis Sunni Arabs in 2006-08 but returning stronger than ever after 2011 when the political situation in the region favoured it once again.

This might happen a second time as the unwieldy combination of different states and movements, which includes everybody from the US and Iran to the Syrian army, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iraqi Shia paramilitaries, begins to fall apart. Nevertheless a rebirth of Isis looks unlikely because its explosion onto the world stage over the last three years so shocked international and regional powers that they will be wary of allowing Isis to recreate itself.

Isis does still have strengths: the latest recording of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi indicates that he is still alive and, so long as this is true, it will be difficult to declare his Caliphate quite dead.

The ideology of Isis will live on sustained by the deep sectarian divisions between Sunni and Shia in the region, differences deliberately fostered by Isis massacres over the last three years. Some Sunni Arab youth whom Isis took great care to propagandise during its years in power will remain true to its cause. The very fact that so many Sunni majority areas have been occupied by Iraqi and Syrian government troops or militiamen may provoke disaffection among the Sunni population.

Nevertheless, winners and losers are emerging in the conflict in Syria and Iraq, though recognition of this may take time. The Kurds have done well out of the war, enabling them to establish the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq since 1991 and Rojava in Syria since 2011. The level of violence is also declining and this again weakens Isis, which functions best in militarised situations in which everything is decided by the gun. Isis may live on, but as a guerrilla force, always dangerous but not the mortal threat it posed in the past.

Civil War in Venezuela: a US Joint Operation with Colombia?

Alice Donovan

This July, the people of Venezuela elected the National Constituent Assembly that, as expected, would be aimed at preparing amendments to the Constitution. The convocation of this body was initiated by President Maduro. The opposition condemned and failed to recognize the elections stating the National Constituent Assembly convocation should be held by the referendum.

These events urged forward the mass protests proceeding in the country since the beginning of April as the result of the discontent with state leaders policy, essentials’ deficiency and a mass population impoverishment against the background of drop in oil prices – a crucial resource for the economy of this mineral-rich Latin American country.

The opposition tries to seize power in Venezuela with broad political support of the USA. The term of the current head of state Nicolás Maduro ends in 2018, but protests organizers, as well as their American curators, do not want to wait, they demand to hold the elections immediately.

The White House makes all efforts to drive the “Bolivarian” regime from power in Venezuela. Latin America is a traditional sphere of influence of the USA since the end of the 19th century, and Washington extremely painfully reacts to loss of positions in its “backyard”. Taking into account the Venezuela situation, the main stake for Washington are oil fields since the American business lost access to them as a result of reforms of President Hugo Chávez.

It should be noted that the Venezuelan question is under special control of the Secretary Tillerson, one of the most influential figures of an oil lobby. During the management of ExxonMobil “Texas T-Rex” proved to be the real predator able to take any measures for achievement of goals. For example, the similar situation happened in 2011 when the company has begun oil development in the Iraqi Kurdistan counter with opinion of the Barack Obama Administration.

Such animal grasp should be expected from Rex Tillerson also with Venezuela. The Secretary of State commenting the hearings in the House of Representatives on the difficult situation which had developed in recent months in Venezuela declared that “the USA has to continue pressure upon Caracas, and also give support of local opposition in this connection the White House needs to take steps through various organizations”.

The recent tour of the vice-president Mike Pence across Latin America also indicates the high priority Washington gives to “the Venezuelan question”. The trip resulted in the coalition of Latin American countries created for political support of Washington efforts to topple President Maduro. Colombia, Argentina, Panama and Chile act as the US allies.

In turn, CIA director Mike Pompeo affirmed the dialogue the agency leads with Colombian and Mexican authorities within the work against the Venezuelan government. The chief of CIA obviously dissembles, claiming that contacts with the Latin American partners are limited only to political consultations. Groups of the Colombian fighters are thrown in the country to carry out provocations against police officers during protests and organize murders of oppositionists in order to create an occasion to accuse Maduro’s government of use of lethal weapon against own people.

Interior Minister Nestor Riverola announced the arrest of several

Columbians in Tachira state bordering on Colombia. They were dressed as Bolivarian national guards of Venezuela and took part at street clashes between the protesters and police. Moreover, the governor of Tachira state José Gregorio Vielma Mora reported about elimination of the Colombian fighters’ camp and added that the number of detainees reached 120 people. 

Washington has always comprehensively supported oppositional groups in the countries of Latin America with “inconvenient” regimes without hesitating in the choice of methods. Mercenaries recruited among political refugees and citizens of neighboring countries have always been one of the most widespread tools of the CIA arsenal if the Hawks wanted to change the government in such a country. As we can observe today, the style of the CIA is invariable.

The situation in Venezuela is aggravated to the brink. The American oil business strongly intends to return the positions lost during the presidency of Chávez and Maduro. The USA will do everything to change power in Caracas and disrupt the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela in 2018. Participation of fighters from Colombia against Maduro serves as the evidence of the White House intention to plunge this Latin American country into chaos of political turbulence and civil war.

Islam and Terrorism: Compatible or Incompatible ?

 Junaid Mushtaq Lone

Whoever kills a soul unless for a soul or for corruption [done] in the land – it is as if he had slain mankind entirely. And whoever saves one – it is as if he had saved mankind entirely (Al-Quran, Chapter5, Verse 32).

This article has been jotted down in response and not in reaction to an Anti-Terrorism Day (ATD) speech in India.

Main kis ke hath pe apna lahu (blood) talash karun, Tamam sheher ne pehnay hue hain dastanay (gloves).

Banay hain ahl-e-hawas (lustful people) muddaee (complainant) bhi, munsif (judge) bhi, Kisay wakeel (lawyer) karen, kis se munsifee (justice) chaahen.                                                (Faiz Ahmad Faiz)

It was Friday 19th of May 2017, following the routine I hurried early in the morning from my temporary cottage to feed my never-ending hunger in the canteen of my summer training institute before 9:00 a.m. As after 9:00 a.m. you can only quench your thirst with pristine water and nothing solid, because canteen won’t welcome you thereafter! After breakfast, as usual I switched on the HPxw4600 Workstation, amidst of our work affair, a sudden flash of broadcast message from LAN disturbed this routine work affair and then Alas! The charm was lost. The broadcast message from LAN read “Please assemble at the auditorium for pledge taking ceremony on ATD (Anti-Terrorism Day). I stepped towards auditorium and seated myself in the last row, only to come out soon after pledge was over. Longing of meeting back my computer system was a bit prolonged as ATD speech was also supposed to be delivered by the security chief of the institute.

The honorable speaker started by truthfully admitting that terrorism had no single definition and then categorised terrorism into some 5 odd type’s viz., state terrorism, religious terrorism, left and right-wing terrorism etc. My apprehension was proven right when the speaker like many other corporate media followers finally declared Islamic terrorism as the biggest threat facing humanity at this juncture. The term Islamic terrorism is a misnomer and is the brain child of corporate media (mind controlling machine owned by big shots) who are always hell-bent to tarnish the image of Islam.  Corporate and paid Media is like “Joseph Goebbels”, Minister of Propaganda of Nazi Germany, as Hitler believed that “if a lie is said hundred times repeatedly, masses will accept it as truth”. Islam and terrorism are mutually exclusive and both can’t coexist in any space and time. I think all rationalists will agree with me that terrorism has no religion. In 2008, a leaked report by researchers for MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, found that “far from being religious zealots, a large number of those involved in terrorism do not practice their faith regularly,” according to the Guardian’s Alan Travis, who obtained, revealed and reported on the classified document, which is based on “hundreds of case studies” by the security service (The Intercept, Mehdi Hassan, 2017). Terrorists are a meager percentage of the human lot who only care for their self motivated and self designed wishes and ideologies. The biggest threat facing humanity in contemporary world is politico-economic terrorism and market extremism unleashed at all levels of social setup by so-called super-powers who claim to be saviours of humanity. Read “Confessions of an Ecocnomic Hitman”, a book by CIA agent, John Perkins.

The terms like Islamism, Radical/Extremist Islam, Fundamentalist Islam, and Jihadism hide the primarily political motivations around much of the religiously named violence. Moreover, it unifies often very different agendas and motivations. While not ignoring the religious dimension, we should not use headline names for these militants and terrorists using any claimed religious motivation. While studying religion and ideology plays an important part in the analysis, the currently used terms give pseudo-legitimacy, hide the complexity of factors (land, identity, oppression, etc.) behind events, and help fuel Islamophobia (Paul Hedges, 2015). On this note let me remind my fellow brethren that more the islamophobes try to defame Islam the more it spreads, that is why Islam is the fastest growing religion with 1.8 billion (24.1% of the global population) followers in 2015 (Pew Research Center), despite being the major threat to humanity as quoted by respected speaker.

Indeed, no clear evidence suggests religion is more likely to incite violence than other ideologies or worldviews; nevertheless, in the current geopolitical environment it often provides a claimed motivation or seeming explanation – both for actors and commentators (Paul Hedges, 2015). “Terrorism is really political violence, first and foremost,” “If you dialogue with these people, if you look at how they actually move into ‘jihad’ … there is very little discussion of religion.” (The Intercept, Mehdi Hassan, 2017). By the way, I used word “jihad” which again is a misnomer for terrorism. Jihad means struggling or striving  and the concept of jihad is in all major religions of the world. I may explain Jihad some other day; here it will take some extra pages to discuss.

Respected speaker blamed Boko haram (which according to him is another Islamic terrorist organisation) for kidnapping of girls and held whole Muslims responsible for not denouncing such heinous acts of terrorism. “Why aren’t Muslims condemning bokoharam?” Well, there are two problems with the questions itself – and both are based on false premises. First is the assumption that Muslims have not, in fact, condemned other violent extremist Muslims. This is simply untrue. Muslim religious scholars, intellectuals, activists, organizations, and countries have all condemned Boko Haram and the kidnappings in unison. All you have to do to know this is type in google search “Muslims condemn Boko Haram” and articles will abound. The second problem with the question of why Muslims, supposedly, don’t condemn evil actions from other Muslims requires a bit more explanation. The problem with it is this inherent assumption that somehow radical violent extremist cults can legitimately speak for Islam – one of the great world religions whose contributions to civilization over the course of fourteen-hundred plus years speaks for itself (Just browse through 1001 Muslim Inventions online if you have your doubts). And, that if Muslims don’t come out and spend all of their remaining days on earth condemning evil at the hand of other so-called Muslims, then somehow this inherent assumption becomes true (Sohaib N. Sultan, 2014). Condemning acts of terrorism won’t suffice as one has to think where do all these terrorist organisations get this modern weaponry; where from these bad guys get these weapons. Ironically, only those who claim to be good guys are the major arms exporters. Yes US is the major arms exporter with 80% of global exports annually and to add an economic tinge to this, weapon industry is a billion dollar industry ($85 billion). Lockheed Martin and Boeing sold more than $ 23.7 billion in arms in 2014 to almost 100 countries (IHS, 2014), and exports had increased by more than 23% under Obama, the most of any administration since World War 2. Lockheed Martin CEO Marillyn Hewson said in her 27 Jan 2015 interview that the company is looking at “volatility” in both Middle East and Asia-Pacific as a way to increase their sales internationally.

From the beginning of time, people have perverted religions to justify the worst possible behaviors imaginable. Murder of innocent women and children, is forbidden in Islam. The likes of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) who claim to fight in the name of Islam not only violate the letter of Qur’an, but violate the spirit of it as well. Their acts are fundamentally un-Islamic. Least to mention bomb blasts by Hindu named terrorists and recent lynchings and mob violence by saffron brigades are also fundamentally anti-hinduism acts, with no evidence from religious scriptures. Religion is what lies in Holy Scriptures, not what few mad people propagate by quoting out of context verses from holy book(s).

This bastardization of Islam is not unique. One of the early ships in the Trans-Atlantic slave trade was actually known as the “Good Ship Jesus.” The very people who were capturing, chaining, and then selling human beings for a life of slavery saw absolutely no conflict of interest between such actions with their Christianity. For that matter Gujarat Pogrom was also politically motivated and religiously meticulated, but being an educated person I won’t blame Hinduism for such dastardly act. However, it’s an easy temptation to oversimplify our emotions into dangerous generalizations, but we must resist such urges.

To sum up the case of Islamic terrorism, let us check facts. On the FBI’s official website, there exists a chronological list of all terrorist attacks committed on U.S. soil from the year 1980 all the way to 2005. According to this data, the group wise contribution is; Latino (42%), Extreme Left Wing groups (24%), Jewish Extremists (7%), Islamic Extremists (6%), Communists (5%) and others (16%). While in India most violent activities are carried out by Maoists as admitted by the speaker. In Europe the data gathered by Europol strengthens my argument even further. Europol publishes an annual report entitled EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report.  On their official website, you can access the reports from 2007, 2008, and 2009. The results are stark, and prove decisively that not all terrorists are Muslims! As opposite to the myth “All Muslims are not terrorists but all terrorists are Muslims”. A Muslim cannot be a terrorist; if he is then he seizes to be a Muslim anymore. In fact, a whopping 99.6% of terrorist attacks in Europe were by non-Muslim groups; a good 84.8% of attacks were from separatist groups completely unrelated to Islam. Leftist groups accounted for over sixteen times as much terrorism as radical Islamic groups.  Only a measly 0.4% of terrorist attacks from 2006 to 2008 could be attributed to extremist Muslims.

According to the Counter Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Al-Qaeda kills over seven times more Muslims than non-Muslims. According to the UN, Muslims are the largest victims of ISIS. According to the State Department, Muslims are the largest victims of terrorism in general (huffpost, Omar Alnatour). ISIS is responsible for more Muslim deaths than western victims (Independent, 2015). Yet Islam and Muslims are doubted for terrorism and this is where my Agony lies. Now why an Islamic terrorist would kill his fellow religious companions? Einstein once joked? “If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the facts.” Or deploy “alternative” ones, maybe. Such an approach makes sense if your aim is to demonize Islam and Muslims, no matter the cost. And one thing is common between islamophobes and ISIS that is they both agree Islam is violent religion, which it is not, not even in any slightest way. And what a bad generalization it is to call Islamic terrorism a biggest threat when 99.99% Muslims round the world aren’t involved in any terror activities.

Middle East was called as the most affected part of the world by quoting examples of Libya, Syria and Yemen without uttering a word on role of  NATO allies in this undeclared third world war, where western world has united to kill innocent people in these Muslim majority nations. Ironically, Syrian Kids were blamed for taking guns and resorting to violence instead of taking pen to go to schools, when every literate person on this planet knows there aren’t any schools left in Syria. To talk on Middle East crisis one should go through the history of Western intervention in this part of world. US declared war on Iraq in 2003 on the pretext of “Weapons of mass destruction (WMD)” which Saddam was hiding, and ironically no WMD were found till date. This prompts one to delve deeper in the issue, and once you dive in you will find it was all oil and economic supremacy which US wanted to maintain after cold war. From 2003 to 2007 1 million people (Muslims) were killed in Iraq on the pretext of finding WMD. Since 1991 Gulf war 4-8 million people have been massacred by western powers in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. There is an Islamic meltdown currently going on as Muslim world is being depopulated at an alarming rate. In Syrian War, under the garb of killing dreaded ISIS (which according to US officials are not more than 10,000 and still exist despite all advanced weaponry NATO and Russia has)  more than 2,50,000 non combatants have been eliminated and out of 22 million Syrian residents 11 million are displaced (Statistics are from year 2015). Then there is another side of the story, imagine that your whole family, I mean all your cousins and uncles and aunts are killed by a single drone attack, won’t you join any orgainsation (be that ISIS or anything), that will provide you a way to vent your anger against those flying devils. 1 million dead in Iraq from 2003-2007 by US hegemony will have affected 1 million families that is how these kids get frustrated and join cults like ISIS. Thus religion is nowhere in the scene. We the people living in our cosy and luxurious apartments in peaceful environment cannot empathise with the situation these oppressed people go on daily basis. And who knows such radical groups may be remotely controlled by some masterminds sitting as good guys and delivering lectures of peace to the world as late Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro hinted about ISIS. The world is full of secret history and shadow boxing of intelligence agencies and no government has remained away from it, rest is all facade. I would like to conclude by quoting Edward Snowden, a dissident whose disclosures have fueled debates over mass surveillance, government secrecy, and the balance between national security and information privacy. In his TED Talk of Mar, 2014 Ed rightly said and I quote “Terrorism has always been what we in intelligence proverbial call, ‘a cover for action’. Terrorism is something that provokes an emotional response that allows people to rationalize authorizing powers of programs that they wouldn’t give otherwise”.

I believe most of the audience seated in the auditorium on that fateful day would have got a negative impression of Islam. I consider this as my obligation to put forth this piece of write up and let the readers decide.

P.S: Terrorism is too complex a topic to be discussed about and needs a lot of research with authentic sources. To speak on terrorism is not everybody cup of tea, but yes you can conclude it intellectually by putting all blame on Islam as it is the soft target. I beg you to read and believe in Islam of Quran not that of ISIS. Islam and terrorism have severe incompatibility with one another.

Trump’s Iran Deal

Binoy Kampmark 

Bad deals. Very bad – unless, of course, they are minted in the United States, with Make America Great Again credentials.  Hardly the stuff of presidential clout and oratorical flair, but the US president is making good his word to rain on the Iran nuclear deal, otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with an overbearing enthusiasm.

In doing so, the JCPOA joins a growing cupboard of potentially obsolete and endangered agreements of varying benefit and quality, be it the Paris climate accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, or the North American Free Trade Agreement.  Nationalists, populists, and activists of all creeds are floundering to find meaning in such gestures.

The Friday speech was filled with customary Trumpist goodies, including the ultimate point that certification of Iranian compliance and general all round good behaviour would not be forthcoming.  Instead, President Donald Trump gave a speech shot through with rhetorical punches, ignoring such positions as that taken by Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic agency.  Iran, claimed Amano, actually had one of the world’s “most robust nuclear verification regime.”

Central to the Trump barrage were various claims.  Among them was the padding of the al-Qaeda link, suggesting that Iran had its share of blame for the September 11, 2001 attacks, irrespective of what ideological underpinnings and differences might have existed.

“The regime remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism and provides assistance to al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist networks.”  All of these show neat compression, with political interests and differences avoided before the all driving monolithic force of Teheran, the designated supreme bogeyman in regional Middle Eastern politics.

The Trump speech was also insistent that softening the moves on Iran had been a mistake.  The regime, he insisted, was starving of oxygen when President Barack Obama went soft.  (It was not, but that hardly ruffles feathers in Trumpland.)  “The previous administration lifted these sanctions, just before what would have been the total collapse of the Iranian regime, through the deeply controversial 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.”

Figures receive their fictive gloss; amounts are given a curious dressing.  The deal, argues Trump, saw a “massive cash settlement of $1.7 billion from the United States, a large portion of which was physically loaded onto an airplane and flown into Iran.”  Other monies also supposedly fell into Iranian coffers: the “immediate financial boost and over $100 billion its government could use to fund terrorism.”

Considering that much of this involved simply thawing and ultimately releasing Iranian assets frozen by the US to begin with, the point is a moot one.  The fact-checking wizards have also made the point that the $1.7 billion cash claim involved a decades old claim between Washington and Teheran that was ultimately settled.

The tables are being turned from the Iranian capital.  Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argued that the speech itself violated the agreement, in spirit if not the letter. If there was a breaker of rules and engagements, it was the US, lauding over what had been agonising negotiations.

“I have,” claimed Zarif, “already written nine letters (to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini) listing the cases where the United States has failed to act on or delayed in its commitments under the JCPOA.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani retorted that Trump’s views were formed on “baseless accusations and swear words.”  New sanctions directed at Teheran’s missile programme were also deemed unconscionable.  “Our achievements in the field of ballistics,” claimed a disapproving Zarif, “are in no way negotiable.”

Other powers are left in a bind.  With decertification happening from Washington, what are allies and other negotiating partners to do?  The UK’s foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, was bound to be unpredictable, but insisted that his country needed “to keep that deal going – it’s been a great success for UK diplomacy.”  Whatever Trump’s ramblings, the deal lived “to fight another day, and that’s a good thing.”

In the final analysis, it may well turn out that Trump is simply firing the first blows against an arrangement that ultimately conceals legitimate Iranian ambitions to acquire a nuclear option. In the current climate, where North Korea is rubbing US noses in the dirt of desperation with each ballistic missile test and defiant nuclear run, officials might be biding their time.

Trump, interestingly enough, seems to want it, to push the incentive rather than drive any disincentive.  “We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more terror and the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakout.”

No surprise, then, on Trump’s reference in the speech about an alleged, if unsubstantiated claim of collusion between the DPRK and Iran.  “There are also many people who believe that Iran is dealing with North Korea.”  Belief, for some, is truly all that matters.

China’s billionaires rapidly expand their fortunes

Mike Head

The Western mass media often ludicrously depicts the Chinese state as a “communist regime.” But this year’s list of the country’s billionaires and multi-millionaires underscores its true class character.

Published in the lead-up to this week’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) 19th National Congress, the 2017 Hurun list points to a further staggering growth of wealth controlled by the oligarchs who sit atop ever-more glaring social inequality.

Some 2,130 individuals now have fortunes estimated to exceed $US300 million, roughly double the number from five years ago. At least 74 individuals joined the 2017 Hurun rich list, bringing the list’s combined assets to $2.6 trillion.

According to Hurun, China now accounts for 36 percent of the world’s billionaires. It has 647 billionaires in American dollar terms, up from 594 the year before. In 2003, there were none.

The CCP gathering, held once every five years, is widely predicted to reinforce the grip of President Xi Jinping and his backers. But the CCP presides over an extremely unstable capitalist state, with a parasitic super-rich layer that is closely integrated into the ruling apparatus, ruthlessly exploiting hundreds of millions of workers.

While continuing to provide a cheap labour platform for global capitalism, as they have done since the early 1990s, the Chinese elites and their associates in the ruling party have amassed fortunes that now outstrip those of every other country, except for the US.

This alone inevitably places the Chinese regime on a collision course with the capitalist ruling elites in the US and other major powers that seek to dominate the global economy. At the same time, immense social and class tensions are rising domestically, adding to the volatility of the mounting geo-strategic tensions.

Despite Xi’s administration launching a phoney war on poverty to try to head off social unrest, his five-year reign has accelerated a vast accumulation of corporate wealth. Among the list’s top 100, average wealth rose 60 percent this year.

“Overall, the Hurun Rich List has grown faster than any year since 2007, with the possible exception of 2015,” Hurun Report chairman Rupert Hoogewerf said in a statement. “China’s entrepreneurs have come a long way. Back in 1999, when I put out the first list, I managed to rank 50 people.”

Hurun acknowledged there were many more multimillionaires whose wealth was hidden. “For every one we have found, we estimate there to be two that we have missed,” Hoogewerf said.

As an indication of the increasingly parasitic nature of Chinese and global capitalism, property speculators and developers head the list, buoyed by soaring share prices. Xu Jiayin, head of property group Evergrande, now tops the rankings with a fortune of $43 billion—up by $30 billion in just one year on the back of a debt-fuelled property boom.

Xu, also known as Hui Ka-yan, has focused on the internal property market and funded domestic football teams. For that reason, he has benefited from measures taken by the CCP leadership to favour internal investment and clamp down on the movement of funds overseas.

As a result, Evergrande has become one of China’s largest property group by sales. Since the start of this year, the price of its shares in Hong Kong has risen by 465 percent.

Xu epitomises the integration of the billionaires into the ruling stratum. He is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top advisory body. The State Council, China’s cabinet, bestowed on him the title “National Model Worker”—one of the country’s highest civilian honours.

Earlier this year, Xu, in his advisory capacity, cynically proposed measures to alleviate poverty and hailed China’s president. “We believe that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core, we would certainly win the battle against poverty,” Xu said.

In reality, despite the regime’s claims to have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, by some estimates poverty afflicts up to half a billion Chinese workers and peasants. Moreover, China now has one of the most unequal wealth distributions of any large economy in the world.

A study released in June by French economist Thomas Piketty sharply revised upward China’s official inequality estimates. Piketty reported: “The top 10 percent income share rose from 27 percent to 41 percent of national income between 1978 and 2015, while the bottom 50 percent share dropped from 27 percent to 15 percent.”

In 2002, the CCP’s national congress formally opened its doors to private business owners, underlining its role as the political vehicle of the country’s budding capitalist class. At next week’s CCP congress, at least three of the entrepreneurs on the Hurun list—Li Denghai, a corn tycoon; Wu Shaoxun, an alcohol magnate; and Pan Gang, who made his fortune in milk—will be delegates.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. In March, Hurun said the combined fortunes of the wealthiest members of the country’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, and its advisory body amounted to $500 billion.

Many of the oligarchs are sitting on a sea of debt, however, adding to the fragility of the CCP’s rule. Xu’s Evergrande has a market value of $47 billion, but its total debt stands at more than $100 billion.

Evergrande has been forced to pledge to the financial markets to cut its net debt ratio from 240 percent to around 70 percent by June 2020. In a report earlier this year, international ratings agency Fitch warned that Evergrande’s high interest expenses and payouts to shareholders would prevent it from reducing its debt significantly.

Pony Ma Huateng, founder and chief executive of Tencent, took the No 2 spot on the 2017 Hurun list with a net worth of $37 billion, overtaking Alibaba executive chairman Jack Ma at $30 billion, who ranked third. Fourth was Yang Huiyan, the largest shareholder of real estate developer Country Garden. Her wealth tripled to $24 billion.

Aside from real estate, technology names led the wealth rankings, with Baidu’s Robin Li and NetEase’s Ding Lei both making the top 10. Of the 2,130 individuals on the list, 43 came from Alibaba and its affiliate Ant Financial.

Alibaba’s market capitalisation is now $473 billion, while Tencent’s is at $428 billion. By comparison, Exxon Mobil is valued around $350 billion.

Last year’s Hurun list leader, Wang Jianlin, dropped to fifth after declines in the share price of his Wanda Group saw his family’s net worth slump 28 percent to $23 billion. Wang built Dalian Wanda from a real estate developer into a global empire spanning cinema chains, Hollywood studios and Spanish football. But its shares tumbled this year when Beijing authorities instructed banks to stem their lending to acquisitive groups.

Despite their growing wealth, China’s financial elites are beset by explosive economic and social contradictions—an unstable financial system, a superheated property market, massive overcapacity and growing frustration and unrest among working people.

The gulf between the ultra-rich and impoverished masses is the consequence of 40 years of pro-market “reform” since 1978, restoring capitalist property relations. Far from being “communist,” the CCP laid the basis for the swift rise of billionaires through cheap state credit, subsidised infrastructure projects, widespread privatisation of state enterprises and above all, ruthless police-state repression of a huge and expanding working class.

Hamas reaches agreement with Fatah

Jean Shaoul 

The Egyptian military junta, working secretly with Israel, has imposed a “reconciliation” agreement on Fatah and Hamas. The rival Palestinian factions control the West Bank and Gaza respectively.

By accepting the new arrangements, Hamas is signalling that it is ready to join Fatah in policing the Palestinians in collusion with Egypt and other Arab bourgeois regimes, provided that it is allowed to do so by Israel and its imperialist sponsors and allies.

The Islamists have been brought to the negotiating table in large measure by Israel’s economic blockade, imposed on Gaza more than 10 years ago to cripple the Hamas-led regime. With little electricity or water due to power cuts, people are forced to buy water at exorbitant prices. Conditions are wretched: nearly 50 percent are unemployed, more than 65 percent of Gazans live in poverty, 72 percent are food-insecure, and 80 percent are dependent on international aid.

The proposed settlement is part of a broader effort by Egypt to strengthen the Sunni Arab axis, which includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and neutralise Qatar, Turkey and Iran. It follows several previous attempts by Egypt to broker a national unity government, the last in 2014, which Israel scuppered by launching a war on Hamas.

Azzam Al-Ahmed, head of the Fatah delegation, and Saleh Alarury, representing Hamas, signed the agreement while praising Egypt’s role and welcoming the prospect of an end to the bitter divisions between the two factions. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas said that the deal constituted “a declaration of the end to division and a return to national Palestinian unity.”

The agreement follows a series of failed moves by Hamas to break the ever-tightening siege imposed by Israel, with the collusion of Abbas. Egypt too has largely kept its border with Gaza closed, particularly following the seizure of power in 2013 by General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, who views Hamas as a politically hostile offshoot of the now-banned Muslim Brotherhood, whose government he overthrew. Cairo has destroyed the underground tunnels between Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula that provided an economic lifeline for the enclave.

In response, Hamas agreed earlier this year on a new charter, stressing its role as a national liberation movement but omitting any mention of the Muslim Brotherhood and effectively repudiating its links with it. Hamas’s officials also left Qatar in June, after the Saudi-led alliance imposed its embargo on the country, accusing it of supporting terrorism.

Last month, Hamas agreed to hand over civilian authority in Gaza to the West Bank government controlled by Abbas’ Fatah faction. Last week, Abbas’s prime minister, Rami Hamdallah, went to Gaza to hold a symbolic cabinet meeting.

Of particular significance was the presence at the Cairo talks of Palestinian millionaire and strongman Mohammed Dahlan, who serves as security adviser to the UAE’s crown prince, Shaykh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The former PA security chief, who fought a civil war with Hamas in 2006, is widely viewed as an Israeli agent. Abbas expelled Dahlan from Fatah in 2011, alleging his involvement in corruption and the murder of PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. With close ties to Israel and the US, Dahlan is their preferred candidate to succeed the 82-year old Abbas.

In the months leading up to the talks, both the UAE and Egypt pressed Hamas to accept a leadership position for Dahlan, sugared with a pledge by the UAE, which seems set to take over Qatar’s role as Hamas’ patron, of $100 million for a power plant and other humanitarian aid.

These developments paved the way for talks at Egypt’s General Intelligence Services headquarters. Hamas, coming under heavy pressure from Egypt, agreed:

* Fatah would take full control of the Gaza Strip by December via an interim unity government with Hamas, made up of “technocrats.”

* Abbas’ presidential guards would police Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt beginning November 1, under the supervision of the European Union border agency EUBAM.

* Gaza’s police forces would be restructured, with an additional 3,000 Fatah security officers joining the police.

* In return, Abbas would end the sanctions on fuel imposed by his government last spring, which cut Gaza’s electricity supplies to just two hours a day.

Egypt’s intelligence services will police the arrangements, in collaboration with Israel, which sent a delegation to Cairo while the talks were under way. This will enable Egypt to control the movement of Jihadi groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula into and out of Gaza.

According to the London-based Sharq Al-Awsat, Hamas also agreed to avoid any action that could trigger retaliation from Israel.

Palestinian leaders will meet again in Cairo next month to discuss the arrangements for presidential and legislative elections to be held within a year. If a deal is implemented, Abbas will visit Gaza for the first time since Hamas won the last legislative elections in 2006, on the basis of its opposition to Israel’s illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories.

Fatah refused to accept the vote, precipitating civil war between the two factions and the political uncoupling of the West Bank and Gaza.

Since then, hostility to Abbas and Fatah has only increased. By siding with Israel against Hamas at the expense of the Palestinians in Gaza, most notably during Israel’s murderous assaults on the strip in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, Abbas lost any last semblance of political legitimacy. The PA’s security apparatus is widely hated for its increasingly draconian actions on behalf of Israel.

Hence, without any assurance that Fatah will win a majority in a future election, the PA will simply postpone elections yet again and allow some unelected “interim government,” effectively imposed by Egypt, the UAE and Israel, to continue.

Several thorny issues still outstanding could yet blow up the fragile agreement. These include the jobs of 40,000-50,000 Hamas government employees, hired after 2007; the integration of Hamas into the PA administration; and the disbanding of Hamas’s 25,000-strong armed forces and decommissioning of its weapons. This is one of the three conditions set by the Middle East Quartet (US, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations), along with Hamas recognizing Israel and accepting previous agreements between the PA and Israel.

El-Sisi has sought to use Hamas’ isolation and the appalling humanitarian crisis to resolve Egypt’s own political problems and prevent Islamist groups, including some affiliated to the Islamic State that are challenging his rule in the Sinai Peninsula, from seeking safe haven in Gaza.

He also fears that the continuation of Egypt’s blockade of Gaza could precipitate a new war between Israel and Hamas that would highlight his own role as Israel’s accomplice, under conditions where Egypt too is seething with discontent.

The response of the Palestinians in Gaza to the reconciliation deal was muted. A few hundred gathered in the main square, calling on the new government to provide jobs and end the humanitarian crisis.

Washington welcomed “efforts to create the conditions for the Palestinian Authority to fully assume its responsibilities in Gaza” as key to improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Despite Israel’s covert involvement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has played to his right-wing support base and publicly rejected the new arrangement, saying that Israel would not accept “bogus reconciliations” conducted “at the expense of our existence.” He demanded that the unity government disband Hamas’ military wing and insisted on Hamas cutting its ties to Iran.

Deaths caused by Leptospirosis reported in Puerto Rico

Benjamin Mateus

Three weeks since Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, relief efforts have been woefully inadequate, as cries for rapid assistance and support continue to go unheeded. Hospitals are running low on medicine, while the number of patients being admitted keeps rising. Many medical personnel have not been able to return to work. Hospital generators, used to produce electricity, are low on fuel. More than 85 percent of the island remains without electricity, 45 percent lacks running water and only limited information from remote regions is available to assess the dire conditions plaguing the island’s population.

According to the New York Times, the mayor of Canóvanas, a region in the northeast of the island, reported that several people in her city had died of Leptospirosis, a bacterial infection caught from the floodwaters. Puerto Rico usually sees about 20 to 30 cases a year, with possibly one death per year. Officials are extremely concerned about a spike in such waterborne infections.

The authorities are urging people to only drink bottled water, wear protective shoes and avoid handling potentially contaminated water or soil. Despite FEMA reporting the distribution of 7 million liters of water, there is a scarcity of clean water in rural communities, whose residents are resorting to washing and bathing in local rivers and springs. According to a story published in Metro US, in Comerío, a town in the mountainous interior, the floods destroyed the sanitation pipelines and took all the drinking water. In a town with 7,000 families, there are only two tank trucks that can distribute water to approximately 200 families per day.

As of last week, only four mobile hospitals had been set up and 10 Disaster Medical Assistance Teams have been sent in by the federal government. The USNS Comfort, a Navy hospital ship with 1,000 beds and 11 operating rooms, arrived more than a week ago, but they are still not seeing the number of patients they expected. According to the Times, the Puerto Rico Department of Health only sent 82 patients to the Comfort over a six-day period. Given the nearly complete failure of island’s infrastructure, it is not surprising that authorities have limited capacity to mobilize help for people in need of medical assistance and attention. Many of the local residents report they have yet to see FEMA.

Leptospirosis is a widespread and prevalent zoonotic disease occurring in some temperate but predominately tropical regions. The World Health Organization’s Leptospirosis Burden Epidemiology Group has estimated 873,000 cases per annum, with 48,600 deaths.

The bacterium causing the disease is a spirochete of the genus Leptospira. The disease is synonymous with Weil’s disease, Swineherd’s disease, rice-field fever, waterborne fever, cane-cutter fever, swamp fever, etc., highlighting its connection with field work in wet environments. The spirochete can infect a variety of both wild and domestic animals, especially rodents, which are important reservoirs for maintaining the transmission in most settings.

Once the rodents are infected, they shed the organism in their urine, resulting in contamination of the water and soil. The bacteria can remain viable for days to months. Human infections occur through exposure to contaminated environmental sources via cuts, skin or mucosal abrasions, conjunctiva and possibly oral ingestion.

Leptospirosis has ceased being a notifiable disease nationally since 1995, with the exception of Hawaii. In the tropics, endemic infections are related to poverty, where lack of sanitation and poor housing conditions lead to infections. Occupational exposure such as subsistence farming and living in rodent-infested and flood-prone urban slums are the main causes of infection. Large outbreaks affecting thousands occur during the rainy seasons and flooding.

Observational studies from Salvador, Brazil, noted elevated antibodies of previous exposure among low-income and black populations, citing proximity to open sewers, accumulated refuse and rat sightings as risk factors. They also noted that an increase in 1 US dollar per capita of household income was associated with an 11 percent decrease in infection risk. In developed countries, sporadic outbreaks occur from participation in activities such as freshwater swimming for triathlons or recreational travels to high endemic areas.

The clinical course of the disease is most often limited or mild, but can evolve into a severe and potentially fatal infection. With the transmission of the spirochete, there is a 2- to 26-day incubation period (usually about 10 days) before symptoms abruptly begin, which is on par with the recent reports. These include high fevers, rigors, muscle and joint pain and headaches. Conjunctival suffusion (redness of the eyes without the discharge seen in conjunctivitis) is a finding that occurs in about 55 percent of patients and should raise the suspicion of Leptospirosis.

Complications in a small subset of infected individuals include jaundice and renal failure, pulmonary hemorrhage, acute respiratory syndrome, inflammation of the eyes, neuropathy, inflammation of the heart and skeletal muscles. Renal failure may lead to electrolyte abnormalities requiring supportive care. These complications can carry a high mortality rate, even in hospitalized patients.

Antibiotics can help with mild to moderate infections. Patients with severe manifestations need hospitalization for supportive care and intravenous antibiotics. Prevention control follows the logical measures through avoiding stagnant water and animal farm water runoff, rodent control, and protection of food from animal contamination. In endemic areas, prophylaxis with the antibiotic doxycycline seems to reduce cases of Leptospirosis.

The immediate dramatic events of a hurricane garner much media attention: the news correspondent leaning into the gale force winds trying to describe the storm into his microphone while the wind howls; or residents of the devastated communities emerging from the shattered homes wading in chest-high water. However, the most concerning aspects of these catastrophes develop long after the storm has subsided. The public health infrastructure is often dismantled by the storm and delays the immediate care needed to prevent problems from injuries, exposure to hazards and drownings. Initial infections are mainly gastrointestinal and wound-related.

Flood waters are heavily contaminated by sewage waste and toxic chemicals. These can lead to issues such as severe and prolonged diarrhea. These conditions can be lethal for the very young and elderly. In Haiti after the 2010 earthquake, cholera introduced by UN aid workers became a serious epidemic. Small wounds can become readily infected, leading to sepsis.

Tetanus, for which a vaccine is readily available, can become a serious concern as puncture wounds are likely when wading in contaminated water and soil. Waterborne mosquito infections can spread viruses like Zika, dengue and West Nile disease. Orthopedic injuries are also more common in this phase of the recovery as people set to rebuild their lives again.

These are only the more immediate physical impacts. Later, the anxiety and depression from those traumatized and displaced permeate into the community.

What is alarming in Puerto Rico is the discrepancy between optimistic official reports and the desperate urgency with which local officials are requesting assistance. Without establishing direct lines of communications throughout the region and triaging the appropriate services to these regions, matching resources with needs will remain a dire problem.

Suffering from such destructive processes can be reduced and communities made whole again. Such storms are predictable, and a network of islands and countries could prepare material, personnel, and finances to come to each other’s aid and assistance.

Necessary internationally based emergency organizations could be assembled to respond to these devastations. The technological expertise is more than possible. An effective humanitarian response would entail the rapid deployment of the resources of the country to mitigating the disastrous consequence of the hurricane.

However, the subordination of the needs of those suffering from the effects of Hurricane Maria, and Harvey and Irma before it, to the capitalist market means that the relief effort is deplorably underfunded and bureaucratically mismanaged. President Trump’s response—demanding that aid to the island be predicated on repayment of debt—is the most honest expression of the contempt on the part of US authorities for the plight of the Puerto Rican population.

Deadline looms for Catalonia to confirm or deny independence declaration

Alejandro López

The Popular Party (PP) government, backed by the Citizens party and the Socialist Party (PSOE), is preparing to seize control of Catalonia if regional premier Carles Puigdemont confirms today that he has declared independence from Spain.

Last Tuesday, Puigdemont told the Catalan parliament that he had “accepted” the mandate for independence based on the results of the October 1 referendum, but then suspended it for “a few weeks” to pursue negotiations with the Spanish government. Puigdemont’s Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), and the pseudo-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) then signed a document declaring Catalonia’s independence from Spain.

On Sunday, Puigdemont did not disclose what he is planning to do, stating that “we want to reiterate our commitment to democracy and peace as the inspirers of the decision we have to make.”

The secessionists have spent the past week seeking to strike a deal with Madrid, but no deal is on offer. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has stuck by his provocative ultimatum, demanding Puigdemont clarify by today at 10:00 a.m. whether he declared independence.

If he says yes, or declines to respond, Rajoy promises to invoke Article 155 of the Spanish constitution. This allows Madrid to suspend the authority of the Catalan regional government and seize control of the region’s finances, administration and police forces.

Such an unpopular measure would necessarily involve the army and the potential invocation of Article 116 to impose a state of emergency. The army has already drawn up an attack plan, code-named Cota de Malla (Chain Mail), in which the army will back police and civil guards in occupying Catalonia.

Sections of the PP are already indicating the reactionary implications of Article 155. Catalan PP leader Xavier García Albiol said that if 155 is invoked “it will be the time to rethink certain things,” such as the educational system in Catalonia and the role of the regional police, the Mossos d’Esquadra. Albiol said, “The majority of the Catalan public school, instead of dedicating themselves to teaching, educate children to hate Spain” and accused regional police of having become “an instrument in favor of the independence.”

His remarks, which are associated with the far-right, are a clear indication that the government is preparing to roll back substantial concessions to the regional bourgeoisie given to them after the end of the Franco regime to ensure their loyalty to the state.

To underscore the type of repression being planned, the leaders of the main pro-secessionist organisations, Jordi Sànchez of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Jordi Cuixart of Òmnium Cultural, along with Josep Lluís Trapero, the Catalan police chief, are in court today charged with sedition. There is already talk of them being placed in preventative custody.

While the immediate target of 155 is Catalonia, the broader target is the working class of Spain and Europe. Madrid is now openly discussing which technocrat would rule a new non-elected administration in Catalonia under Article 155, another indication of how class tensions have reached extreme levels incompatible with democratic forms of rule.

El Español provided some names being discussed under the provocative title, “Who will be the Pich and Pon of 155? Six candidates for ‘governor’ of Catalonia.” Juan Pich y Pon was named Governor General of Catalonia after the Catalan self-government was crushed in October 1934.

The names listed are Enric Millo, the current delegate of the Spanish government in Catalonia, who led the repression during the independence referendum on October 1 that left over 800 injured; Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, the PP’s current deputy prime minister of Spain; Dolors Montserrat, the current Minister of Health; Jesús María Barrientos; the current president of the High Court of Justice of Catalonia; Socialist Party member and former Spanish Minister of Work, Celestino Corbacho and Duran i Lleida, a former leader of the Democratic Union of Catalonia, a nationalist party opposed to separatism.

The PP’s preparations for a military-police crackdown enjoy the support of the major European powers and the United States, which fear the break-up of a member of the European Union and the NATO alliance. Last Friday, the EU made its endorsement of Rajoy clear once again, with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker declaring, “If we allow Catalonia—and it is not our business—to separate, others will do the same… I do not want that. I wouldn’t like a European Union in 15 years that consists of some 98 states.”

Faced with the prospect of a military crackdown, the Catalan bourgeoisie and its middle-class allies of the CUP are in crisis. Puigdemont cannot simply back down. If he does, the CUP has threatened that it would withdraw its parliamentary support, the key to Puigdemont’s minority government.

In a letter delivered to Puigdemont on Friday, the CUP demands an immediate “proclamation of the republic”, adding, “If [the central government] mean to keep applying the provisions of Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, let them do so with the republic already proclaimed.”

The CUP withdrawing support would imply snap elections, in which the secessionist parties might lose a majority in parliament against the forces backed by Madrid.

Avoiding answering the CUP, regional vice premier and leader of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, said, “What we are doing is the republic, and the best way to do it is through dialogue, dialogue to make the republic, and to do it effectively we need to preserve unity.”

Hostile to any mobilization of broader opposition to Madrid’s crackdown in the Spanish working class, the separatist forces are instead busying themselves preparing a set of measures in an independent Catalonia which would work as tax incentives for companies.

On Sunday, the Catalan News Agency reported that the regional government sees independence as “an opportunity in the mid-term to improve the market conditions which companies have faced until now.”

It added that a Catalan state should have a more advantageous fiscal framework for the economy so as to create “incentives to new investments, job creation”.

Such remarks confirm the correctness of the World Socialist Web Site ’s statement on the independence referendum, which explained, “The separatist parties aim to create a new mini-state through which they can claw back taxes presently paid to the central government, while establishing direct relations with global banks, transnational corporations and the European Union. They hope to transform Catalonia into a low-tax free trade area based on stepped-up exploitation of the working class.”

Such pro-capitalist politics only serves to divide the working class against itself, under conditions where the critical task is the political unification and mobilization of the Spanish and European working class against the repression planned by Madrid and in a struggle for socialism.

The pseudo-left Podemos has until yesterday continued its task of demobilizing all opposition to the PP and disarming the Spanish working class in the face of a massive state build-up by continuing its empty appeals to Rajoy.

Podemos spokesperson to the Senate, Ramón Espinar, said on Saturday that Rajoy should dialogue with Puigdemont “before applying any exceptional measures,” adding that “Rajoy has to think about it” and that he is still “on time” to do so: “Before applying any exceptional measure on Catalonia, what he has to do is to sit with Puigdemont: I do not know what better things Rajoy and Puigdemont have to do than sit down and talk”.

Far-right poised to enter government following Austrian election

Peter Schwarz

Sunday’s election in Austria has produced a sharp shift to the right. It is expected that a right-wing government of a kind not seen since the fall of Hitler and the restoration of Austrian independence will be installed.

The consensus view is that the election campaign was the filthiest in the country’s history. Incapable of addressing the devastating social consequences of the global capitalist crisis, the major parties sought to outdo one another with attacks on refugees and mutual mud-slinging. One commentator spoke of a “hysterical Austria-First atmosphere” dominating official politics.

As of this writing, the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), with 31.4 percent of the vote, has emerged from the balloting with a clear lead. It gained 7.4 percent over its result in the last national election, in 2013. The final result will not been known until Monday, when the postal vote is counted.

Thirty-one-year-old Sebastian Kurz, who is currently foreign minister in the grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPÖ), is likely to become the new prime minister. Kurz assumed the leadership of the ÖVP in May in what amounted to an internal party coup. He centered his campaign around his personality. Its sole political focus was hostility to immigrants, refugees and Muslims. Kurz attempted to outflank the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) from the right.

Kurz boasted that he secured the closure of the Balkan route used by refugees fleeing the catastrophic conditions in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa resulting from the US-led and NATO-backed wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. He touted his close ties to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn and promised a range of discriminatory measures against refugees. He vowed to restrict the number of immigrants, reduce social benefits for asylum seekers and close Islamic kindergartens. He also pledged to massively strengthen the police and security apparatus.

In second place is the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). It has increased its vote by 6.9 percent to 27.4 percent and overtaken the Social Democrats (26.7 percent), who received the same vote as four years ago. Since neither the Conservatives nor the Social Democrats want to continue the grand coalition, which has governed the country for ten years, it is likely that the right-wing extremists will be part of the next government.

The FPÖ entered the government in Vienna once before, from 2000 to 2007, when the party was led by Jörg Haider. At the time, its acceptance into government triggered Europe-wide protests and the European Union imposed sanctions. Since then, the party has moved significantly further to the right.

Forty-eight-year-old Heinz-Christian Strache, who broke with Haider in 2005 and took over as party leader, was, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, part of the militant neo-Nazi scene when he began his career in the FPÖ.

As a 17-year-old, Strache joined the German nationalist student fraternity Vandalia in Vienna. He maintained close contact with well known right-wing extremist Norbert Burger and was the partner of his daughter for seven years. He had ties to the neo-Nazi Viking Youth, which was banned in Germany in 1994, and participated in paramilitary exercises with well known neo-Nazis. Since photos exist of him in uniform, Strache later tried to dismiss his paramilitary activities as harmless paintball play-acting.

Strache joined the FPÖ in 1989, but the FPÖ’s youth organization, Youth Circle of Freedom (RFJ), turned him away. “At that time, Strache was too right-wing for us and blustered too much,” future Defence Minister Herbert Scheibner said of the decision.

A government alliance between Kurz and Strache—the most likely outcome of the election—would be roughly equivalent to a coalition between the Christian Social Union’s Markus Söder and the Alternative for Germany’s Bernd Höcke in Germany; or between Nicolas Sarkozy and Marine le Pen in France. In a country that was annexed by Hitler in 1938, all inhibitions about the crimes of the past are being dropped.

This development can be understood only in the context of the bankruptcy of the organisations that once described themselves as “left” or representative of the working class.

At the beginning of the 20th century, Austrian Social Democracy was among the most powerful sections of the Second International. Even after the First World War, which the Austrian Social Democracy supported, the party dominated “red Vienna,” where one in four residents was a member. In the 1970s, by which time the party had declared its unconditional defence of the bourgeois order but still carried through limited social reforms, SPÖ leader Bruno Kreisky was one of the most well known figures in international Social Democracy.

Now the SPÖ has paved the way for the rise of the right-wing extremists by abandoning even the pretense of defending workers’ rights. Instead, it has adopted xenophobic slogans, pledging prior to the election its readiness to form a coalition with the FPÖ.

Like the other parties, the Social Democrats called in the election campaign for the strengthening of borders against refugees. They supported the closure of the Balkan route by the region’s right-wing governments and pushed for a tougher stance against refugees in the Mediterranean, claiming that they were engaged in “economic migration.”

In June, Chancellor and SPÖ leader Christian Kern, a former rail industry executive, abandoned the more than 30-year-old “Vranitzky doctrine,” according to which the Social Democrats would not cooperate with the FPÖ. Leading SPÖ officials openly called for an alliance with the right-wing extremists. This was particularly the case among representatives of the influential trade union wing, such as construction union chief Josef Muchitsch and the leader of the metalworkers union, Rainer Wimmer. At the state level, the SPÖ already formed a coalition with the FPÖ in Burgenland in 2015. Both parties have hailed their close cooperation.

In the election, the SPÖ resorted to a filthy campaign that blew up in its face after it was exposed. In August, Tal Silberstein, a highly-paid SPÖ campaign consultant, was arrested in Israel on corruption charges and it was revealed that he operated anonymous Facebook pages that spread lies about ÖVP candidate Kurz, painting him as an anti-Semite.

There is no possibility of forming a majority in the new parliament by aligning one of the three major parties with one or more of the smaller parties, because the votes recorded by the latter were too low.

The neo-liberal Neos, a protest party made up of well-off middle-class elements, which adapted itself to the anti-refugee campaign, will reenter parliament with 5.0 percent of the vote, the same result as in the last election.

The Greens, whose former chairman Alexander Van der Bellen was elected Austrian president in December of 2016, lost 9.1 percent. With a total of 3.3 percent, they have fallen short of the 4 percent needed to enter parliament. The list of Peter Pilz, a former member of the Pabloite Revolutionary Marxist Group, who split from the Greens because their policies on refugees and Turkey were not sufficiently right-wing, received 4.1 percent.

The Team Stronach, set up by a right-wing businessman, which received 5.7 percent in the last election, did not stand in Sunday’s election.

The rightward shift in Austria is symptomatic of Europe as a whole. In the Alpine republic, with its close to 9 million residents, the full extent of the rot of bourgeois politics is on display. In the face of deepening international and social tensions, all of the parties defending capitalism are turning to policies of nationalism, xenophobia, militarism and the strengthening of the repressive state apparatus.

The dissatisfaction and social needs of the masses find no expression in the traditional ruling parties, allowing them to be exploited by far-right demagogues. This is true not only in Austria, where the FPÖ is winning support in former SPÖ strongholds, but also in France, where the National Front won votes in run-down industrial areas, and in Germany, where the AfD’s strongholds are in impoverished parts of eastern Germany.