9 Jul 2018

Pakistan: Elections or Revulsion against Hall of Shame

Mahboob A. Khawaja

Are the Pakistanis living in a Fantasy World?
The logic of July 25 parliamentary elections in Pakistan is questionable as being a ceremonial stunt to undermine the reality of a highly corrupted and disoriented political culture.  For decades, Pakistan lacks systematic working capacity to organize fair and honest election campaigns representing the interest of the masses. Foremost, the intent to hold elections on a short span of time. Why the interim government was not formed a year or at least six months ahead of the planned elections?  Given the extreme hot climate and the month of Ramadhan in between, it should have been a rational discourse. This should have helped to organize the necessary systematic mechanics of an election body to plan and organize all facets of the complex elections. For the missing political accountability and fearful of the on-going legal actions against Sharif brothers, the whole scenarios of hurriedly arranged interim government tells a lot. The Sharif regime had no interest and priority to hold fair elections or to transfer power to another legitimate political party. They were all sadistic maniacs full of greed and mismanagement to dehumanize the Pakistani masses. Leaders are supposed to enjoin a vision of the future, creative thinking and selflessness, ethical character, a sense of positive thinking and commitment to serve the interests of the people. None of such profiles exist of any politicians in the recent history of Pakistan.  Pakistan needs a major change in its constitutional framework, political systems and the role and responsibilities of the political establishments. None of this is available in any rational context. If Pakistan is to spearhead as a sustainable democracy, it needs Major Planned Changes – a New Constitution, a Presidential system of governance (elected directly by the people), new political institutions enriched with young, educated and people of new generation having proactive vision of articulating a sustainable socio-economic and political future for the country. This rebuilding of the Nation cannot be done by just one group or one party already operative under highly charged corruption and dysfunctional political legitimacy. Have you ever read “Pakistan- Enigma of Change”-1999;  “Pakistan: Leaders or Political Monsters” 2015, and “Pakistan in Search of Political Change”, 2015by this author?  Our nation has been robbed by its own so called political leaders- Bhuttos, few Military Generals, Zardari, Sharifs and Musharraf.  Truthfully, none were leaders except being military backed opportunists and thumb lickers who could be used for all purposes in all seasons – legitimate or illegitimate – this is the Pakistan’s junk history for the last 50 or more years. How could you imagine regaining that precious time and opportunities for change and development for socio-economic, political, moral and intellectual  infrastructures to sustain the present and reconstruct the Nationhood?  Could this forthcoming July 25 elections make any remedial work for what is required to be undertaken by hundreds and thousands of thinking people, strategic planners and political experts? Those who imagine miracles out of nothing, must be living in a self-engineered fantasy world – a world that does not corresponding to the prevalent realities of the 21st century.
Could Pakistanis Learn from others and the Challenges of Time?
South Korea sentenced to President Park to 20 years or more on corruption charges. It was done in a visible systematic legal framework. Why could Pakistanis not hold Zardari, Ms. Bhutto, Sharif and Musharaf to the same legal criterion action?  Is Pakistan a legally dysfunctional State? See how Brazilian legal system dealt with the past two presidents. Now, see how Malaysia handled Najib Razik’s corruption scandal and being held for a court trial.  If the Pakistani political elite and judiciary were honest and effective, should they have not taken tangible measures to exercise the legal accountability in a public court of law against so many political gangsters?
Nawaz Sharif has been sentenced to 10 years on corruption charges but he will not serve the sentence because he already fled the country. Why did the higher court allow him to leave the country? Were the Supreme Court judges ignorant of the fact that he could leave the country and avoid all measures of legal accountability?  This was nothing new in Pakistani political culture.
Rationality and truth has its own language. Everywhere blame game is used by the corrupt politicians to cover up their cruel impulses. The insane egoism does not recognize its own incompetence, criminality and failure. Across the nation, agonizing situations warrant urgent attention to deal with insecurity, conflict prevention and conflict management, Pakistani Taliban’s terrorism, problems in responsible governance, disdain trade and commerce and to revitalize sustainable national unity. The dismissed PM Sharif and his colleagues amassed wealth, stolen time and opportunities for political change and killed peaceful civilian demonstrators. They react like paranoid and maniacs as if masses are the problem. If conscientious Pakistanis living abroad are concerned about the decadent political culture and rebuilding of the moral, intellectual and economic-political infrastructures, the ruling elite will ensure to deprive them the opportunity to be heard at a national level. When people are forced to live in political darkness, they lose sense of rational direction.
They demonstrated a dehumanized gutted culture of naïve politics, be it inside the Higher Courts,National Assembly or the political powerhouses, it makes no sense in a 21st century knowledge-based age of reason and political accountability.  People’s tormenting pains,, political agony and continuing sufferings cannot be transformed into a single portrait to show to the global audience. All of the political monsters have stolen time and looted the wealth and positive energies of the masses. At a glance, Pakistan appears to be reaching at a dead-ended political discourse. The political misfortunes needs a high power jolt of intervention to pave a smooth way out of the stagnated political culture of the few. People are the legitimate force for change if there is any glimpse of democracy still operational in Pakistan.
Leaders or Monsters of History – Pakistanis should see the Mirror
The military dictators, Bhuttos, Zardari and Sharifs could never have come into power unless the whole nation had lost the sense of rationality, purpose and meaning of its existence. These sadistic and cruel monsters have institutionalized chaos and fear, demoralization of a moral society and dehumanization of an intelligent nation and have transferred these naïve traits and values to the psychological-social-economic and political spheres of the mainstream thinking hub of the nation.
Pakistani politics is operated by those who have absolutely no qualifications to be at the helm of political power – yet they are continuously engaged in systematic degradation of the educated and intelligent young generations of Pakistanis who are deprived of opportunities to participate in the national politics. The contemporary history of political degeneration includes few generals, neo-colonial feudal lords, members of the assemblies, family-vested few houses of political power, ministers or prime ministers; they have the distinction of all acting in unison against the interest of the people of Pakistan.  Political Power is aphrodisiac. Do the people belong to this mad scrum overwhelmingly witnessed across the peoples’ movement against the oligarchy? To an impartial observer the scene is clear that wrong people are conducting the political governance where reason and legal justice are outlawed. This contradicts the essence of the Freedom Movement of Pakistan. It appears logical to think that at some point soon, those who are fit to lead must take over from those who are misfit to govern with credibility. It could be a bloodless coup – or it could be a bloody insurrection. One way or another, the process of phasing-out the obsolete and phasing-in the fair and much desired and deserving must happen.  Is Pakistan’s freedom and futuristic integrity being sacrificed for the few dumb and dull criminals who wish to extend their power beyond the domains of reason and honesty?  It will be extremely harmful and deeply flawed and dangerous ethos to the interests of the people if Sharif brethren –Bhutto’s family including Zardari reemerge in the outcome of the July 25, 2018 elections and are allowed to continue the crime riddled political governance while their legitimacy is under sharp questioning. The path to peaceful change and political success requires the wise and informed to establish an organized council of responsible oversight to move-in to the void once the despots are ousted. That is an essential component of any public uprising determined to manifest genuine and sustainable political change and legal justice.
In Pakistan:  Reflections on the 70th Independence Day:  Imperatives of Optimism and Future-Making”, Uncommon Thought Journal, USA: 8/15/2017), this author made the following observations:
The political elite and the people live in a conflicting time zone being unable to understand the meaning and essence of the Pakistan Freedom Movement. This purpose needs unwavering public commitment and continuous struggle to political change. It needs not to be invented, it is living in the mind and spirit of the people, it just needs to be revitalized and better organized as the momentum is waiting for the grieving people.Pakistan urgently needs a savior, not Sharif, Bhuttos or the few Generals. The solution must come from the thinking people of the new educated generation – the intelligent Pakistanis to facilitate hope and optimism for a sustainable future of the beleaguered nation. This should be the framework of the message and active agenda for change and reformation as the core of the celebration of the Pakistan’s 70th Independence Day.

Agrarian Crisis and Climate Catastrophe: Forged in India, Made in Washington

Colin Todhunter

India is under siege from international capital. It is on course not only to be permanently beholden to US state-corporate interests but is heading towards environmental catastrophe much faster than many may think.
According to the World Bank’s lending report, based on data compiled up to 2015, India was easily the largest recipient of its loans in the history of the institution. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the World Bank exerts a certain hold over India. In the 1990s, the IMF and World Bank wanted India to shift hundreds of millions out of agriculture. In return for up to £90 billion in loans, India was directed to dismantle its state-owned seed supply system, reduce subsidies, run down public agriculture institutions and offer incentives for the growing of cash crops to earn foreign exchange.
The plan for India involves the mass displacement of people to restructure agriculture for the benefit of powerful corporations. This involves shifting at least 400 million from the countryside into cities. A 2016 UN report said that by 2030, Delhi’s population will be 37 million.
Quoted in The Guardian, one of the report’s principal authors, Felix Creutzig, says:
“The emerging mega-cities will rely increasingly on industrial-scale agricultural and supermarket chains, crowding out local food chains.”
The drive is to entrench industrial farming, commercialise the countryside and to replace small-scale farming, the backbone of food production in India. It could mean hundreds of millions of former rural dwellers without any work given that India is heading (or has already reached) ‘jobless growth’. Given the trajectory the country seems to be on, it does not take much to imagine a countryside with vast swathes of chemically-drenched monocrop fields containing genetically modified plants or soils rapidly turning into a chemical cocktail of proprietary biocides, dirt and dust.
The WTO and the US-India Knowledge Initiative on Agriculture are facilitating the process. To push the plan along, there is a deliberate strategy to make agriculture financially non-viable for India’s small farms and to get most farmers out of farming. As Felix Creutig suggests, the aim is to replace current structures with a system of industrial (GM) agriculture suited to the needs of Western agribusiness, food processing and retail concerns.
Hundreds of thousands of farmers in India have taken their lives since 1997 and many more are experiencing economic distress or have left farming as a result of debt, a shift to (GM) cash crops and economic liberalisation. The number of cultivators in India declined from 166 million to 146 million between 2004 and 2011. Some 6,700 left farming each day. Between 2015 and 2022 the number of cultivators is likely to decrease to around 127 million.
For all the discussion in India about loan waivers for farmers and raising income levels, this does not address the core of the problem affecting agriculture: the running down of the sector for decades, spiralling input costs, lack of government assistance and the impacts of cheap, subsidised imports which depress farmers’ incomes.
Take the cultivation of pulses, for instance. According to a report in the Indian Express (Sept 2017), pulses production increased by 40% during the previous 12 months (a year of record production). At the same time, however, imports also rose resulting in black gram selling at 4,000 rupees per quintal (much less than during the previous 12 months). This has effectively driven down prices thereby reducing farmers already meagre incomes. We have already witnessed a running down of the indigenous edible oils sector thanks to Indonesian palm oil imports on the back of World Bank pressure to reduce tariffs (India was virtually self-sufficient in edible oils in the 1990s but now faces increasing import costs).
On the one hand, there is talk of India becoming food secure and self-sufficient; on the other, there is pressure from the richer nations for the Indian government to further reduce support given to farmers and open up to imports and ‘free’ trade. But this is based on hypocrisy.
Writing on the ‘Down to Earth’ website in late 2017, Sachin Kumar Jain states some 3.2 million people were engaged in agriculture in the US in 2015. The US govt provided them each with a subsidy of $7,860 on average. Japan provides a subsidy of $14,136 and New Zealand $2,623 to its farmers. In 2015, a British farmer earned $2,800 and $37,000 was added through subsidies. The Indian govt provides on average a subsidy of $873 to farmers. However, between 2012 and 2014, India reduced the subsidy on agriculture and food security by $3 billion.
According to policy analyst Devinder Sharma subsidies provided to US wheat and rice farmers are more than the market worth of these two crops. He also notes that, per day, each cow in Europe receives subsidy worth more than an Indian farmer’s daily income.
How can the Indian farmer compete with an influx of artificially cheap imports? The simple answer is that s/he cannot and is not meant to.
The opening up of India to foreign capital is supported by rhetoric about increasing agricultural productivity, creating jobs and boosting GDP growth. But India is already self-sufficient in key staples and even where productivity is among the best in the world, farmers still face massive financial distress. Given that jobs are being destroyed, relatively few are being created and that as a measure of development GDP growth is unsustainable and has actually come at the expense of deliberately impoverished farmers in India (low food prices), what we are hearing is mere rhetoric to try to convince the public that an increasing concentration of wealth in the hands of a relative few corporations – via deregulations, privatisations and lower labour and environmental protection standards – constitutes progress.
We can already see the outcome of these policies across the world: the increasing power of unaccountable financial institutions, record profits and massive increases in wealth for elite interests and, for the rest, disempowerment, mass surveillance, austerity, job losses, the erosion of rights, weak unions, cuts to public services, environmental degradation, spiraling national debt and opaque, corrupt trade deals, such as TTIP, CETA, RCEP (affecting India) and TPA.
Making India ‘business friendly’
PM Modi is on record as saying that India is now one of the most business-friendly countries in the world. The code for being ‘business friendly’ translates into a willingness by the government to facilitate much of the above, while reducing taxes and tariffs and allowing the acquisition of public assets via privatisation as well as instituting policy frameworks that work to the advantage of foreign corporations.
When the World Bank rates countries on their level of ‘ease of doing business’, it means national states facilitating policies that force working people to take part in a race to the bottom based on free market fundamentalism. The more ‘compliant’ national governments make their populations and regulations, the more ‘business friendly’ a country is.
In the realm of agriculture, the World Bank’s ‘Enabling the Business of Agriculture’ entails opening up markets to Western agribusiness and their fertilisers, pesticides, weedicides and patented seeds. Rather than work to eradicate corruption, improve poor management, build storage facilities and deal with inept bureaucracies and deficiencies in food logistics, the mantra is to let ‘the market’ intervene: a euphemism for letting powerful corporations take control; the very transnational corporations that receive massive taxpayer subsidies, manipulate markets, write trade agreements and institute a regime of intellectual property rights thereby indicating that the ‘free’ market only exists in the warped delusions of those who churn out clichés about letting the market decide.
According to the neoliberal ideologues, foreign investment is good for jobs and good for business. But just how many actually get created is another matter – as is the amount of jobs destroyed in the first place to pave the way for the entry of foreign corporations. For example, Cargill sets up a food or seed processing plant that employs a few hundred people; but what about the agricultural jobs that were deliberately eradicated in the first place or the village-level processors who were cynically put out of business via bogus health and safety measures so Cargill could gain a financially lucrative foothold?
The process resembles what Michel Chossudovsky notes in his 1997 book about the ‘structural adjustment’ of African countries. In ‘The Globalization of Poverty’, he says that economies are:
“opened up through the concurrent displacement of a pre-existing productive system. Small and medium-sized enterprises are pushed into bankruptcy or obliged to produce for a global distributor, state enterprises are privatised or closed down, independent agricultural producers are impoverished.” (p.16)
If people are inclined to think farmers would be better off as foreign firms enter the supply chain, we need only look at the plight of farmers in India who were tied into contracts with Pepsico. Farmers were pushed into debt, reliance on one company and were paid a pittance
India is looking to US corporations to ‘develop’ its food and agriculture sector. With regard to what this could mean for India, we only have to look at how the industrialised US system of food and agriculture relies on massive taxpayer subsidies and has destroyed farmers’ livelihoods. The fact that US agriculture now employs a tiny fraction of the population serves as a stark reminder for what is in store for Indian farmers. Agribusiness companies (whose business model in the US is based on overproduction and dependent on taxpayer subsidies) rake in huge returns, while depressed farmer incomes and massive profits for food retailers is the norm.
The long-term plan is for an overwhelmingly urbanised India with a fraction of the population left in farming working on contracts for large suppliers and Walmart-type supermarkets that offer a largely monoculture diet of highly processed, denutrified, genetically altered food based on crops soaked with chemicals and grown in increasingly degraded soils according to an unsustainable model of agriculture that is less climate/drought resistant, less diverse and unable to achieve food security.
The alternative would be to protect indigenous agriculture from rigged global trade and trade deals and to implement a shift to sustainable, localised agriculture which grows a diverse range of crops and offers a healthy diet to the public.
Instead, we see the push for bogus ‘solutions’ like GMOs and an adherence to neoliberal ideology that ultimately privileges profit and control of the food supply by powerful private interests, which have no concern whatsoever for the health of the public.
Taxpayer-subsidised agriculture in the US ultimately promotes obesity and disease by supporting the health damaging practices of the food industry. Is this what Indians want to see happen in India to their food and health?
Unfortunately, the process is already well on track as ‘Western diseases’ take hold in the country’s urban centres. For instance, there are massive spikes in the rates of obesity and diabetes. Although around 40 per cent of the nation’s under-5s are underweight, the prevalence of underweight children in India is among the highest in the world; at the same time, the country is fast becoming the diabetes and heart disease capital of the world.
Devinder Sharma has highlighted where Indian policy makers’ priorities lie when he says that agriculture has been systematically killed over the last few decades. He adds that 60% of the population lives in the villages or in the rural areas and is involved in agriculture but less than two percent of the annual budget goes to agriculture: when you are not investing in agriculture, you are not wanting it to perform.
Support given to agriculture is portrayed as a drain on the economy and is reduced and farmers suffer yet it still manages to deliver bumper harvests year after year. On the other hand, corporate-industrial India has failed to deliver in terms of boosting exports or creating jobs, despite the hand outs and tax exemptions given to it.
The number of jobs created in India between 2005 and 2010 was 2.7 million (the years of high GDP growth). According to International Business Times, 15 million enter the workforce every year. And data released by the Labour Bureau shows that in 2015, jobless ‘growth’ had finally arrived in India.
So where are the jobs going to come from to cater for hundreds of millions of agricultural workers who are to be displaced from the land or those whose livelihoods will be destroyed as transnational corporations move in and seek to capitalise small-scale village-level industries that currently employ tens of millions?
Development used to be about breaking with colonial exploitation and radically redefining power structures. Now we have dogma masquerading as economic theory that compels developing countries to adopt neo-liberal policies. The notion of ‘development’ has become hijacked by rich corporations and the concept of poverty depoliticised and separated from structurally embedded power relations, not least US-driven neoliberal globalisation policies resulting in the deregulation of international capital that ensures giant transnational conglomerates have too often been able to ride roughshod over national sovereignty.
Across the world we are seeing treaties and agreements over breeders’ rights and intellectual property have been enacted to prevent peasant farmers from freely improving, sharing or replanting their traditional seeds. Large corporations with their proprietary seeds and synthetic chemical inputs have eradicated traditional systems of seed exchange. They have effectively hijacked seeds, pirated germ plasm that farmers developed over millennia and have ‘rented’ the seeds back to farmers. As a result, genetic diversity among food crops has been drastically reduced, and we have bad food and diets, degraded soils, water pollution and scarcity and spiralling rates of poor health.
Corporate-dominated agriculture is not only an attack on the integrity of ‘the commons’, soil, water, food, diets and health but is also an attack on the integrity of international institutions, governments and officials which have too often been corrupted by powerful transnational entities.
Whereas some want to bring about a fairer, more equitable system of production and distribution to improve people’s quality of lives (particularly pertinent in India with its unimaginable inequalities  which have spiraled since India adopted neoliberal policies), Washington regards ‘development’ as a way to further US interests globally.
As economics professor Michael Hudson said during a 2014 interview (published on prosper.org under the title ‘Think Tank Times’):
“American foreign policy has almost always been based on agricultural exports, not on industrial exports as people might think. It’s by agriculture and control of the food supply that American diplomacy has been able to control most of the Third World. The World Bank’s geopolitical lending strategy has been to turn countries into food deficit areas by convincing them to grow cash crops – plantation export crops – not to feed themselves with their own food crops.”
Of course, many others such as Walden Bello, Raj Patel and Eric Holtz-Gimenez have written on how a geopolitical ‘stuffed and starved’ strategy has fuelled this process over the decades.
Capitalism and environmental catastrophe joined at the hip
In India, an industrialised chemical-intensive model of agriculture is being facilitated that brings with it the numerous now well-documented externalised social, environmental and health costs. We need look no further than the current situation in South India and the drying up of the Cauvery river in places to see the impact that this model has contributed to: an ecological crisis fuelled by environmental devastation due to mining, deforestation and unsustainable agriculture based on big dams, water-intensive crops and Green Revolution ideology imported from the West.
But we have known for a long time now that India faces major environmental problems rooted in agriculture. For example, in an open letter to written to officials in 2006, the late campaigner and farmer Bhaskar Save noted that India, next to South America, receives the highest rainfall in the world. Where thick vegetation covers the ground, and the soil is alive and porous, at least half of this rain is soaked and stored in the soil and sub-soil strata. A good amount then percolates deeper to recharge aquifers, or ‘groundwater tables’. Save argued that the living soil and its underlying aquifers thus serve as gigantic, ready-made reservoirs gifted free by nature.
Half a century ago, most parts of India had enough fresh water all year round, long after the rains had stopped and gone. But clear the forests, and the capacity of the earth to soak the rain, drops drastically. Streams and wells run dry.
Save went on to not that while the recharge of groundwater has greatly reduced, its extraction has been mounting. India is presently mining over 20 times more groundwater each day than it did in 1950. Much of this is mindless wastage by a minority. But most of India’s people – living on hand-drawn or hand-pumped water in villages and practising only rain-fed farming – continue to use the same amount of ground water per person, as they did generations ago.
According to Save, more than 80% of India’s water consumption is for irrigation, with the largest share hogged by chemically cultivated cash crops. Maharashtra, for example, has the maximum number of big and medium dams in the country. But sugarcane alone, grown on barely 3-4% of its cultivable land, guzzles about 70% of its irrigation waters.
One acre of chemically grown sugarcane requires as much water as would suffice 25 acres of jowar, bajra or maize. The sugar factories too consume huge quantities. From cultivation to processing, each kilo of refined sugar needs two to three tonnes of water. This could be used to grow, by the traditional, organic way, about 150 to 200 kg of nutritious jowar or bajra (native millets).
While rice is suitable for rain-fed farming, its extensive multiple cropping with irrigation in winter and summer as well is similarly hogging water resources and depleting aquifers. As with sugarcane, it is also irreversibly ruining the land through salinization.
Save argued that soil salinization is the greatest scourge of irrigation-intensive agriculture, as a progressively thicker crust of salts is formed on the land. Many million hectares of cropland have been ruined by it. The most serious problems are caused where water-guzzling crops like sugarcane or basmati rice are grown round the year, abandoning the traditional mixed-cropping and rotation systems of the past, which required minimal or no watering.
Salinization aside, looking at the issue of soil more generally, Stuart Newton, a researcher and botanist living in India, says that India must restore and nurture its depleted, abused soils and not harm them any further with chemical overload. Through his analyses of Indian soils, he has offered detailed insights into their mineral compositions and links their depletion to the Green Revolution. In turn, these depleted soils in the long-term cannot help but lead to mass malnourishment. This is quite revealing given that proponents of the Green Revolution claim it helped reduced malnutrition.
Various high-level official reports, not least the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge and Science for Development Report, state that smallholder, traditional farming can deliver food security in low-income countries through sustainable agroecological systems. Moreover, given India’s huge range of biodiversity (India is one of Nikolai Vavilov’s strategically globally important centres of plant diversity) that has been developed over millennia to cope with diverse soil and climate conditions, the country should on its own be more than capable of addressing challenges that lie ahead due to climate change.
Instead, policy makers continue to look towards the likes of Monsanto-Bayer for ‘solutions’. Such companies merely seed to break farmers’ environmental learning ‘pathways’ based on centuries of indigenous knowledge, learning and practices with the aim of getting farmers hooked on chemical treadmills for corporate profit (see Glenn Stone and Andrew Flach’s 2017 paper in the Journal of Peasant Studies, ‘The ox fall down: path-breaking and technology treadmills in Indian cotton agriculture’).
Wrong-headed policies in agriculture have already resulted in drought, expensive dam-building projects, population displacement and degraded soils. The rivers are drying, farmers are dying and the cities are creaking as a result of the unbridled push towards urbanisation.
In terms of managing water resources, regenerating soils, and cultivating climate resilient crops, agroecology as a solution is there for all to see. Andhra Pradesh is now making a concerted effort to roll-out zero budget agroecological agriculture across the state. However, in the absence of this elsewhere across India, agroecological approaches will be marginalised.
India faces huge problems in terms of securing access to water. As Bhaskar Save noted, the shift to Green Revolution thinking and practices (underpinned by geopolitical and commercial interests: World Bank loans; export-oriented monocropping, commodity crop trade and dependency on the US dollar; seed sovereignty issues and costly proprietary inputs, etc) has placed enormous strain on water resources.
From glacial melt in the Himalayas that will contribute to the drying up of important rivers to the effects of temperature rises across the Indo Gangetic plain, which will adversely impact wheat productivity, India has more than its fair share of problems. But despite this, high-level policy makers are pushing for a certain model of ‘development’ that will only exacerbate the problems.
This model is being driven by some of the world’s largest corporate players: a model that by its very nature leads to environment catastrophe:
“… our economic system demands ever-increasing levels of extraction, production and consumption. Our politicians tell us that we need to keep the global economy growing at more than 3% each year – the minimum necessary for large firms to make aggregate profits. That means every 20 years we need to double the size of the global economy – double the cars, double the fishing, double the mining, double the McFlurries and double the iPads. And then double them again over the next 20 years from their already doubled state.” – Jason Hickel, writing in The Guardian (July 2016).
Politicians and bureaucrats in Delhi might be facilitating this model and the system of agriculture it is tied to, but it is ultimately stamped with the logo ‘made in Washington’.

Another Indonesian ferry disaster, 34 confirmed dead

John Harris

A passenger ferry ran aground in shallow water last Tuesday afternoon in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Of the 189 passengers on board, 34 have been declared dead and 155 have been rescued or swam to safety. This is the third major ferry disaster in Indonesia in the past month.
The ferry was en route from Port Bira to Pamatata on Selayar Island when it encountered strong winds and rough seas two hours into its journey. High waves caused a hull breach on the ship’s portside, flooding the vessel and damaging the engine. The deck was deluged with water that swept away vehicles and passengers.
The captain in a desperate effort to prevent the ferry from sinking and save as many passengers as possible, deliberately steered the vessel into the shallows off Selayar Island. The boat ran aground approximately 300 metres from the shore.
Photos and videos on social media showed terrified passengers clinging to the ship and using ropes to descend into the rough waters. Others were wading and assisting people to get onto the rescue boat.
Local residents braved rough waters to assist trapped passengers, using fishing vessels to transport people to safety on Wednesday. Indonesia’s Transportation Ministry said that a fleet of smaller ships had to be used in the rescue operations as larger craft were prevented from approaching the ferry because of the shallow water and bad weather.
Agus H. Purnomo, the director-general of sea transportation reported that “the captain and the owner of the ship were the last two people to come down from the passenger ship.”
Among the casualties were infants as young as two and three. Some of the injured are being treated at the island’s local hospital.
Last Thursday, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman from the Indonesia Disaster Management Agency, declared that the ship had exceeded its maximum passenger capacity by 60. There were 189 passengers on board the ferry at the time of the tragedy, but the ship’s manifest listed only 139 people and 48 vehicles.
Private ferry operators in Indonesia often cram their vessels to overcapacity and under report passengers to boost profits by circumventing heavy government taxes and lowering operation costs.
Transportation Minister Budi Karya Sumadi sought to deflect responsibility away from the government to the ship’s captain and crew. He declared on Tuesday that “if the boat was found to be not seaworthy we will take firm action against the operator.”
Maritime disasters are frequent in the Indonesian archipelago, with shipping companies often evading safety regulations. The victims are working people and the rural poor who have no other option but to risk their lives on poorly maintained vessels to travel between the 17,000 archipelago’s islands.
Sulawesi was the region where a ferry disaster killed an estimated 300 people in 2009. The blame for such tragedies does not rest solely with ferry operators and captains but with the lack of regulation and its enforcement by the government and state bureaucracy.
Conscious of widespread public distrust, President Joko Widodo stated last week that the disaster was caused by “undisciplined services by people that should be responsible for safety on [the] sea.” Widodo went on to try to divert attention from his administration’s responsibility by naming the region’s head of transportation as a suspect responsible for the tragedy.
The mounting toll from ferry disasters is clearly putting pressure on the government. Three weeks ago, 13 died after a boat carrying about 43 people sank off Makassar, South Sulawesi’s capital.
The latest tragedy occurred on the same day that authorities abandoned the retrieval of a ferry that sank two weeks ago at Lake Toba, Sumatra, citing the technical and logistical difficulties of the operation. According to Nugroho Budi Wiryanto, a spokesman from the National Search and Rescue Agency, the ship was located at a depth of 420 metres and bodies were located further down at 455 metres.
Rescue Agency spokesman Muhammad Yusuf Latif said that they had discussed getting a vessel from Singapore to retrieve the boat and the victims but decided to cancel it, citing the “high cost” and the three weeks it would take to get the ship to the lake.
Official estimates have been revised down from 193 to 164 people missing and presumed dead, and 21 survivors. Three have been confirmed dead. The ferry had been operating illegally and did not have a manifest or tickets to count passengers. The estimate relies on reports from relatives and survivors of the tragedy. The boat was carrying nearly five times its capacity of 43 and dozens of motorcycles.
In an effort to curb the anger of relatives protesting the inadequate government response, a government-funded monument will be erected in memory of the victims.
The ship’s captain and three port and transportation officials have also been arrested on the charges of sailing without a permit and negligence. The suspects could face up to 10 years’ imprisonment and a 1.5 billion rupiah ($US145,000) fine.
Targetting the captain and officials serves to obfuscate the broader underlying political and economic reasons that allow such tragedies to occur on a regular basis. After these disasters, governments have routinely promised improvements in the maritime sector, but nothing has materialised.
A 2016 report from the Asian Development Bank highlighted the collapse in transport infrastructure. “The situation has deteriorated since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with current investment in infrastructure at about 3.5 percent of GDP versus a 1997 pre-crisis level of approximately 8 percent,” it stated. The report noted that in 2015 only $5.2 billion had been allocated to the Ministry of Transportation.
Underscoring the woefully inadequate resources devoted to maritime infrastructure, a 2015 report by DBS Group Research estimated that 900 trillion rupiah (about $US62.4 billion) would be required to modernise maritime facilities and transportation in Indonesia.

Paramedic’s suicide points to crisis in Australian ambulance services

John Mackay & Cheryl Crisp 

The suicide of a 28-year veteran paramedic in the Hunter region of Newcastle, a major regional city north of Sydney, further exposes the worsening situation in Australia’s under-staffed and over-stretched ambulance services.
In early April, Tony Jenkins, 54, took his own life following a meeting with senior management in the New South Wales (NSW) Ambulance Service. The meeting was called to discuss alleged tampering with 16 vials of the opioid painkiller Fentanyl.
Many unanswered questions surround that meeting. Jenkins was accused of criminal acts—stealing Fentanyl—but the clear guidelines for all management-staff meetings were flouted. Jenkins was given no advanced warning of the meeting, and had no support person present. No minutes were taken of the proceedings, nor was the meeting recorded.
According to management, Jenkins admitted to theft, saying he was relieved it had been discovered because he could then seek help. Despite this, he was dropped off alone by a senior ambulance officer. Jenkins did not finish his shift. He drove straight to a local hardware shop where he purchased the equipment for his suicide.
The paramedic was still in his uniform when his body was found early the next morning in bushland near his home. Within a few short hours of his meeting with NSW Ambulance management, he was dead.
A toxicology report found Jenkins did not have Fentanyl in his system when he died. His family insists there were no prior triggers or clues to his decision to take his own life.
After almost three months of obfuscation by NSW Ambulance and a sustained campaign by Jenkins’ family for answers regarding his treatment and death, NSW Ambulance Commissioner Dominic Morgan issued an unprecedented apology to “all NSW paramedics.”
Morgan did not directly refer to Jenkins when he conceded that NSW Ambulance had “not always looked after its staff as well as it should have.” He said the service had “terribly let down some staff, and others we have completely failed.”
Morgan’s televised address stated that in his discussions with paramedics during his two years in office, the three issues they said needed change were increased staff numbers, mental health support and protection against occupational violence.
It was precisely on these issues Jenkins had gained a well-earned reputation for campaigning with management on behalf of his fellow workers.
His daughter, Kim Jenkins, told the Newcastle Herald that the contents of her father’s work locker following his death, revealed “a mountain of correspondence about Dad trying to get things changed.” This particularly related to dangerous jobs he and his colleagues were sent to attend, about which they were provided with little or no information. Jenkins felt he was “waging a losing battle” and the necessary changes were not occurring fast enough.
In the Sydney Morning Herald, his other daughter, Cindy Jenkins, wrote: “How could a man who preached about his good fortune, his loving family and his remarkably happy life, be driven to take his own life, without warning. Where was the depression? Where was the melancholy? Where were the signs? There were none—other than a 28-year gig with the NSW Ambulance.”
Her article made clear the lack of support provided to paramedics by NSW Ambulance. She wrote: “Many of us assume that the most traumatic part of a paramedic’s job is what they find when they respond to an emergency call. What many of us fail to consider is what happens to paramedics once they leave a scene. What sort of support do they receive? Where do they go after attending a fatality? More often than not, their next stop is another job.”
Jenkins’ suicide is the third by paramedics in the Hunter region in a decade. It highlights the shockingly high rate of suicides among ambulance officers—double that of the general population.
His death came six months after yet another NSW government inquiry into workplace bullying in the emergency services. This confirmed what had already been established previously: NSW Ambulance has significant problems with bullying, including treatment of staff by managers.
Australian Paramedics Association (APA) secretary Steve Pearce, who gave testimony to the inquiry, said: “Some managers are using performance management … and job selection as a means of selectively punishing those that displease them.” He reported that some managers ignored or misused policies designed to protect workers and turned a “blind eye” when intimidating behaviour was reported.
Steve McDowell, a former paramedic with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), founded a support group for ambulance officers. He told the inquiry there was deliberate “obstruction” of complaints of bullying and harassment to prevent them being escalated to the Professional Standards Unit.
Professor Carlo Caponecchia of the University of NSW, who presented a submission to the inquiry, reported: “Research shows that people in emergency services are not so much stressed by what they see on the road, it’s what happens to them back at the depot, back at the station, in relation to their colleagues, in the support they get or they don’t get from the service they are employed [by].”
Paramedics and mental health experts alike say there is a lack of support from management, an absence of debriefing procedures, and a denial of the need for counselling services and the time to engage them. This has resulted in a toxic and alienating environment, with antagonistic relations between staff members.
Chronic under-staffing and 12-hour shifts that routinely stretch to 14 or more hours increase the stress, with an emergency call being made to NSW Ambulance every 28 seconds.
In 2016, only 80 new paramedics were hired statewide, not enough to overcome shortages. At the time, APA secretary Pearce told the Sydney Morning Herald: “Lives are being put at risk by the NSW government, which has failed to address this critical shortage of paramedics over several years.” Exhausted paramedics were “doing so much overtime it’s disturbing” and the additional recruits would be “a drop in the ocean.”
Health Services Union president Gerard Haynes told the inquiry that the service was “at least 1,000 people short,” but the unions covering paramedics have done nothing to oppose the constant erosion of staff and conditions. Industrial action has been called off repeatedly over the past decade, allowing management to impose onerous shifts and workloads.
In 2017, the unions allowed ambulance stations to be closed in working-class areas of Sydney—replaced by “super stations”—leading to increased response times because greater distances must be travelled. Paramedics who opposed the closures, warning that lives would be put at risk, were abandonded and isolated by the unions.
The NSW ambulance service employs 4,500 staff, with 90 percent in operational roles, such as paramedics. In late 2017, a NSW Auditor General’s report revealed that between 2012-2017 the demand for ambulance services grew more than 2 percent every year.
Last week, the state Liberal government said 200 new paramedics would be hired in 12 months and a total of 700 over four years. But only 25 new ambulances would be brought into use, so the shortfall would remain.
This promise, made less than a year before a state election, may never be implemented. APA assistant state secretary Gary Wilson told the WSWS: “NSW Ambulance does not have the capacity to train an extra 200 paramedics in 12 months.”


Years of budget cuts by governments, both Liberal and Labor, are responsible for the impossible conditions that led Tony Jenkins and others to take their own lives.

Four Thai boys trapped in flooded cave brought to safety

Patrick Martin

The first four of 12 boys trapped with their soccer coach while exploring a cave in Thailand were brought to safety Sunday, as an international rescue effort intensified. The complex operation was halted overnight while workers recharged oxygen tanks and divers planned the next steps to be taken on Monday.
The four were taken immediately to local hospitals to be checked for the effects of dehydration, malnutrition and oxygen deprivation, as well as the stress and sheer terror of being trapped underground for more than two weeks.
The 12 youth, aged 11 to 17, and their coach, aged 25, have been trapped underground since June 23. They were largely given up for lost until a British diving team located them on July 2, still alive after 10 days with little food.
Four Thai Navy SEALs, one of them a doctor, are now with the boys in the cavern where they took shelter. They have brought in food, medicine and equipment vital to the boys’ survival while they await rescue.
There was celebration in the town of Mae Sai, located on the northern edge of Thailand near both Myanmar (Burma) and Laos, where the Wild Boars soccer team is based. As families awaited the release of the names of the four boys rescued thus far, young men cruised the town on flatbed trucks cheering and waving.
Narongsak Osottanakorn, the governor of Chiang Rai province, who is in charge of the search and rescue operation, said there would be a break of from 10 to 20 hours to allow for replacement of equipment used along the long and difficult escape route, a distance of some four kilometers, which takes the most experienced cave divers six hours to traverse.
The cave opening is wide enough for only one person at a time, and none of the boys can swim, adding to the difficulty of the rescue. Two divers are being used to escort each boy out. The divers are helping the boys with their diving masks and carrying their oxygen tanks. The rescuers reportedly prioritized the boys who were in the worst physical shape, taking them out first.
According to press reports, the boys must endure a mixture of walking, wading, climbing and diving while they cling to guide ropes put in place by the rescue workers. At the most difficult passage, divers have to take off their air tanks to squeeze through. All of this is done largely in darkness, with occasional lights placed by the rescue divers where possible.
A total of 90 rescue workers are involved, 40 from Thailand and 50 for around the world, including Australia, Britain, Japan and the United States. Of the 18 experienced cave divers doing the most dangerous work, 13 are from overseas and five are Thai Navy SEALs.
The dangers facing both the boys and their rescuers were underscored by the death of one diver, a retired Thai Navy SEAL, 38-year-old Saman Gunan, who ran out of oxygen himself while placing spare oxygen tanks along the underwater route.
The oxygen level in the Tham Luang cave where the boys and their coach are trapped has fallen to only 15 percent, well below the 21 percent normal in the atmosphere at sea level. Divers had to bring in oxygen tanks and breathing gear for everyone to use while they awaited rescue, to avoid hypoxia, which causes nausea, drowsiness and incapacitation and can ultimately be fatal. Strenuous activity, such as required in the prolonged exit from the cave, is far more difficult.
The 12 boys and their assistant soccer coach went into the cave for an outing on June 23 and were trapped there by rising floodwaters that came unseasonably early. The boys include one 17-year-old, a 16-year-old, two 15-year-olds, three 14-year-olds, four 13-year-olds, and the youngest, only 11.
Even after they were located, there were fears that they would have to remain below ground for months, until the monsoon rains ended and the subterranean water level dropped sufficiently to bring them out.
Both the search for the missing boys and the subsequent rescue effort have been enormous in their scope. Massive pumps have been brought in to hold back rising waters from runoff due to ongoing rainstorms. Dozens of farms downstream from the cave have been flooded by the pumped water, with the government offering compensation.
The plight of the trapped children has attracted immense international attention, with hundreds of journalists flocking to the scene. Tens of millions of people have been following the progress of the search and rescue operation, commenting on it, and expressing their support and sympathy for the families of those involved.
This outpouring of human solidarity is in healthy contrast to the official vilification that would be visited on such children if they were Guatemalan asylum seekers seeking refuge in the United States, locked up in one of Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) prisons, or African refugees on board a ship in the Mediterranean Sea, denied landing rights by the right-wing government in Italy.


No one (at least publicly) is asking how much it costs to save the lives of these 12 boys and their young coach, or suggesting that the rescue operation should be shut down because “there is no money” to pay for it. On the contrary, the scale of the effort being mounted in a supposedly less developed country like Thailand puts to shame the incompetent and indifferent operation mounted by the US government in Puerto Rico last year.

Refugees ensnared in European dragnet

Johannes Stern & Andre Damon

On Friday, the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) agreed to back a major crackdown on refugees negotiated by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
The agreement marks the adoption by the parties of the German political establishment, represented by the “Grand Coalition” government of the SPD and CDU/CSU, of the racist and criminal immigration policies of the fascist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
To complement its dragnet roundup of immigrants, the German government has agreed to establish mass internment camps for refugees inside Germany and throughout Europe.
These so-called “anchor centres,” to be located throughout the country, will intern potentially tens or even hundreds of thousands of people behind barbed wire and under police guard, for 18 months or longer.
The camps will exist outside of basic legal frameworks, violating every fundamental democratic right of the men, women and children unfortunate enough to be ensnared in them. The inmates will be treated as criminals for seeking their right to asylum and subjected to the most degrading and inhuman treatment.
The German government has sought to distance itself from historical parallels to Germany’s previous experiences with mass internment, declaring that the new internment centres—where inmates would be detained against their will—would not be “closed camps.”
It is hiding its crimes behind bureaucratic phrases. A government paper on the resolutions of the most recent EU summit declared, “Increased use of dragnet controls and other intelligent border police approaches can significantly increase the number of people detected near the border with a EURODAC [European fingerprint data base] entry, who can receive immediate processing in the Special Reception Facilities.”
According to the plans of the German government, the refugee camps in Greece and Italy, euphemistically called “hotspots,” are now to be extended to the whole of Europe. A draft of German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer’s “Master Migration Plan” states that “reception centres in Italy and Greece should be supported and expanded by sufficient staff from the member states.”
“Hotspots,” “dragnet,” “Master Plan.” These revolting euphemisms for the mass internment of innocent human beings are just one indication of the horrors being prepared for their inmates.
“Iron wire interwoven into squares, up to four, five metres high,” the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung wrote of Camp Moria, an EU “hotspot” camp on the Greek island of Lesbos. “Barbed wire has been rolled over the fence, watchtowers and security guards stand at all entrances to the camp, rifles slung over their chests.” Inside, too, the camp, which with 7,500 people is massively overcrowded, resembles a veritable “hell,” in which the Geneva Convention and fundamental rights have been suspended.
If Seehofer describes such horrors as a “master plan” and “anchor centres,” it is because Hitler already used the phrases “final solution” and “concentration camps.”
The Grand Coalition’s new refugee plan provides the practical basis for the creation of prison camps that exist in a legal vacuum. The coalition paper states that during the planned “transit procedure,” persons are “legally not entering Germany.” With this reactionary legal construct, similar to America’s Guantanamo Bay prison camp, extraterritorial zones will be created that do not legally qualify as state territory and constitute a de facto legal vacuum in which the police are given free reign.
The utter indifference to human dignity, the most shameless violation of human rights, the use of chilling bureaucratic language to hide even more chilling crimes—all of it has the stench of the 1930s. Bourgeois democracy in Europe is disintegrating, increasingly replaced with dictatorial forms of rule.
What is true of Germany, with its supposed “welcoming culture” presided over by “Mutti” Angela Merkel, is true of the whole world. In Italy, the neo-fascist government of Matteo Salvini is carrying out a census of the Roma in preparation for their mass roundup. In the United States, immigrant children are separated from their parents and kept in cages. In Greece, under the “radical left” Syriza government, refugees from throughout Europe are rounded up in mass internment camps.
All over the world, the same filth and putrefaction, the same stench of criminality, is oozing out from the pores of every capitalist nation-state. Israel’s slaughter of hundreds of unarmed Palestinian demonstrators is openly defended, and the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Yemeni civilians by Saudi Arabia, backed by the United States, is simply ignored.
The ruling classes, in the words of Leon Trotsky in the 1930s, are transforming the world into a “foul prison.”
These criminal policies of the capitalist parties stand in stark contrast to the humane sentiments of workers and young people throughout the world. The Grand Coalition’s embrace of the refugee policy of the fascists was met with protests Sunday by tens of thousands throughout Germany, while hundreds of thousands have participated in demonstrations in the United States against the Trump administration’s barbaric treatment of refugees.
The task now is to connect the humane and democratic sentiments of workers all over the world with a political program that expresses their social interests. The defence of immigrants and refugees all over the world must be connected to opposition to war, social inequality, declining wages and the assault on social programs.
Four years ago, the Sozialistische Gleichheitspartei (Socialist Equality Party—SGP), the German section of the International Committee of the Fourth International, was the first to raise the alarm about the establishment parties’ embrace of neo-fascist politics through the official promotion of academics like Jörg Baberowski, who declared that “Hitler was not vicious.”
Now the SGP is leading the fight to organize resistance to the Grand Coalition, which is supported by the entire middle-class “left,” in the struggle to defend the rights of refugees as a central plank of the socialist program to overthrow the capitalist system that is dragging mankind back into the fascist sewer of the 1930s.

7 Jul 2018

Imperial College Research Fellowships for International Researchers 2019 – UK

Application Deadline: 28th August 2018 at 23:59

Eligible Countries: International

To Be Taken At (Country): Imperial College London UK

About the Award: Imperial’s prestigious Imperial College Research Fellowships sustain the brightest and best early career researchers from across the world, providing a level of commitment and support that is rare from a UK university.
Imperial College Research Fellowships are intended for post-doctoral researchers of demonstrated ability, who are at the early stages of their research career and who have the potential to establish research independence.  This opportunity is equivalent to the British Academy’s Postdoctoral Fellowship, Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellowship, EPSRC Postdoctoral Fellowship and Wellcome Trust Henry Wellcome fellowship schemes

Type: Fellowship, Postdoctoral

Eligibility: 
  • There are no restrictions on nationality; however you will be required to provide evidence of your eligibility to work in the UK before commencing any fellowship offered
  • Applicants should have a PhD and will normally have no more than four years postdoctoral research experience in an academic environment (calculated from the PhD viva to the application deadline). Exceptions to this can include discipline hopping, where there must still be less than four years post-doctoral research experience in the discipline of the proposed fellowship; career breaks and career changes, where time spent out of the academic research environment will not be counted in the four years
  • In exceptional cases, applicants applying to the Faculty of Engineering and Imperial College Business School are permitted to apply before the submission of the PhD but any offer of funding will be dependent on the PhD being awarded before the start of the fellowship
  • For applications to the Faculties of Natural Sciences and Medicine, a PhD must have been submitted before an application is made and the PhD must be awarded before the start of the fellowship
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: 
  • a competitive salary
  • research and travel expenses of up to £45,000
  • personal mentoring support from a senior Imperial academic
  • focussed careers support, training courses, and development opportunities from the College’s Postdoc and Fellows Development Centre
  • the chance to take full responsibility for setting and directing your own research agenda
This support gives you the freedom to focus on your research and career trajectory, with no obligatory teaching or administration.

Duration of Programme: 4 years

How to Apply: 
  • Candidates who are interested in applying for an Imperial College Research Fellowship must contact their proposed sponsor and proposed sponsor department as soon as possible, to discuss their intentions to apply.
  • Applicants should complete and submit an online application form via the College’s careers website. The deadline for submission is 23:59 (GMT) Tuesday 28 August 2018
Visit Programme Webpage for Details

Konosuke Matsushita Memorial Foundation Scholarship for Masters Students in Developing Countries 2018

Application Deadline: 23rd August, 2018.

Eligible Countries: Countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America

To be taken at (country): Tohoku University, Japan

Type: Masters

Eligibility: 
  • Students who will start their Master’s program in October 2018 (including students who has already started studying in Japan as a bachelor or a research students and those who will enroll in the Master’s program in October 2018).
  • Students from countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Number of Awardees: Not specified

Value of Scholarship:
  • Living allowance: 120,000 yen per month
  • Admission (Entrance) fee: 282,000 yen
  • Tuition fee: 535,800 yen
  • Travel expense: Economy class roundtrip airfare between Japan and your country. (It will be paid to those who live outside Japan only.)
Duration of Scholarship: From October 2018 until completion of Master’s program in 2020 (maximum 2 years)

How to Apply: Prepare documents that are instructed in the guideline to submit them to the department office.

2018KMMF.zip

Visit Scholarship Webpage for details

Award Provider: Konosuke Matsushita Memorial Foundation

Important Notes: 
  • Application documents can be filled out in Japanese or in English by using the computer.
  • Economic Status Report should be stated as of October 1, 2018.

Pakistan’s financial crisis puts Belt and Road on the spot

James M. Dorsey

Increased Pakistani dependence on China to help it avert resorting to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avoid a financial and economic crisis spotlights fears that the terms of Chinese investment in massive Belt and Road-related projects would not pass international muster.
Concerns that China’s US$ 50 billion plus investment in Pakistani infrastructure and energy, the Belt and Road’s crown jewel dubbed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), potentially amounts to a debt trap, compound suggestions that Pakistan increasingly will have no choice but to toe Beijing’s line.
The concerns are reinforced by the vision spelled out in a draft plan for CPEC. The plan envisioned a dominant Chinese role In Pakistan’s economy as well as the creation of a Chinese style surveillance state and significant Chinese influence in Pakistani influence.
Pakistani officials, concerned that Chinese loans offer a band-aid rather than a structural solution, have cautioned China, in a bid to keep the People’s Republic committed to bailing them out, that CPEC projects would be at risk if their country was forced to seek help from the IMF.
The officials said that they would have to disclose the terms of CPEC projects if they are forced to revert to the IMF and that this could lead to projects being cancelled.
“Once the IMF looks at CPEC, they are certain to ask if Pakistan can afford such a large expenditure given our present economic outlook,” the Financial Times quoted a Pakistani official as saying.
China has so far been willing to bail Pakistan out with Chinese state-owned bank giving the South Asian country some $5 billion in loans in the last 12 months in addition to a US$1.5 billion trade facility.
Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves plunged to US$9.66 billion last month from US$16.4 billion in May 2017.
Pakistani efforts to avert a crisis could not come at a more sensitive moment with elections scheduled for July 25. Political tension in the country were heightened this week by the sentencing to prison on corruption charges of ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, Maryam, as well as the likely participation of a large number of Islamic militants in the polls.
To make things worse, China last month did not try to shield Pakistan from being grey-listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international anti-money laundering and terrorism watchdog. that threatens to impair the country’s access to international financial markets.
Pakistan is struggling to avoid being blacklisted by the group.
Pakistani concern about disclosing terms of CPEC projects, even if it may involve a degree of opportunistic hyperbole, reinforces widespread worries in the country itself as well as in the international community that Chinese-funded Belt and Road projects put recipients at risk of walking into a debt trap and losing control of some of their key assets.
Malaysia this week suspended China-backed projects worth more than US$20 billion on the grounds that many made no financial sense. The projects included a railway and two pipelines.
China has written off an undisclosed amount of Tajik debt in exchange for ceding control of some 1,158 square kilometres of disputed territory close to the Central Asian nation’s border with the troubled north-western Chinese province of Xinjiang. Sri Lanka, despite public protests, was forced to give China a major stake in its port of Hambantota.
Pakistan and Nepal withdrew last November from two dam-building deals. The withdrawal coincided with mounting questions in Pakistan about what some saw as a neo-colonial effort to extract the country’s resources.
A report published in March by the Washington-based Center for Global Development warned that 23 of the 68 countries benefitting from Belt and Road investments were “significantly or highly vulnerable to debt distress.”
The centre said eight of the 23 countries – Pakistan, Tajikistan, Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos. the Maldives, Mongolia, and Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan – were particularly at risk.
Djibouti already owes 82 percent of its foreign debt to China while China is expected to account for 71% of Kyrgyz debt as Belt and Road-related projects are implemented.
“There is…concern that debt problems will create an unfavourable degree of dependency on China as a creditor. Increasing debt, and China’s role in managing bilateral debt problems, has already exacerbated internal and bilateral tensions in some BRI (Belt and Road initiative) countries,” the report said.
With analysts predicting that China will ultimately be unable to stabilize Pakistan financially, Pakistan is ultimately likely to have to revert to the IMF in a move that could seriously impact the Belt and Road initiative, widely perceived as an infrastructure driven effort to cement Chinese economic and geopolitical influence across a swath of land that stretches from South-eastern Europe and the Atlantic coast of Africa to the People’s Republic.
Analysts estimate that Pakistan this year needs US$ 25-28 billion to service its debt and ensure investor confidence in its ability to put its financial house in order. An IMF technical assistance team this week concluded a week-long visit to Pakistan.
Said one analyst: “Ultimately, the IMF is Pakistan’s only option. If an IMF-imposed regime has consequences for BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) projects, it could impact perceptions of the terms China imposes.”