6 Nov 2020

Climate change and human evolution

Philip Guelpa


It has long been understood that the evolution of organisms involves dynamic, dialectical interaction between a species and its environment—both physical and biological. This applies to humans as well as all other species.

The very beginning of a distinct human lineage is linked to climate change marking the transition from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene, roughly 2.5 million years ago, during which a general drying trend in Africa caused forests to retreat and grasslands to expand. One group of apes, who as a whole are forest-dwelling, ventured or were driven from the forests into the grasslands. The radical shift in adaptation to this new environment initiated the evolutionary trajectory of a new ape lineage—the hominins of the genus Australopithecus—leading ultimately to modern humans.

New research, reported in the journal Science Advances, elucidates in detail the role played by another environmental change in a major transition in hominin biological and technological evolution, spanning the period from 500,000 to 300,000 years ago in Africa.

Data derived from a program of core drilling through sedimentary rock in the southern Kenyan Rift Valley documents changes in water availability, vegetation and other resources across the landscape that are chronologically correlated with a major technological shift in stone tools, from what are known as Acheulean industries, which had been in use for over a million years, to those of the Middle Stone Age (MSA).

This change is most clearly marked by the disappearance of large bifaces, known as handaxes, which dominated the tool assemblage, to a more diverse and sophisticated tool inventory. Other innovations which appear in the MSA are long-distance trade in lithic (derived from stone) raw materials and the use of coloring materials which may indicate the creation of symbolic representations (i.e., art).

Together, these technological and behavioral changes are taken to be representative of a significant cognitive advance among the humans in that region. Since cognitive abilities do not fossilize, they must be inferred based on material remains—artifacts and fossils. It is likely not a coincidence that the period in question also initiates the transition from the species Homo erectus, which had been in existence for over a million years, to a variety of new hominins, including the first appearance of our own species, Homo sapiens.

The evidence from the drill cores that significant environmental changes were taking place during the period in question comes in a variety of forms. The sedimentary sequence documented in the cores indicates relative environment stability from 1 million to half a million years ago, then a significant increase in episodes of drying after 500,000 years ago, marked by retreat of lake levels, reflecting a shift to a more unstable, frequently drier environment than had been the case previously. These drier episodes each lasted approximately 5,000 years.

Data from plant remains also indicate a shift from generally wetter to drier environments, including an increased presence of grasses (particularly short grasses), which are more drought-tolerant, as opposed to woody plants. This also suggests the development of a less varied array of plant resources. The cores document repeated, relatively rapid shifts in vegetation.

These vegetation shifts would be expected to affect the animal population that depend on them. Indeed, the fossil record indicates a massive, 85 percent replacement of large mammalian grazing herbivores (greater than 900 kg in body weight) with smaller mammals having a more varied, grazing/browsing herbivorous diet, who could survive in a drier environment. This suggests a less stable climate to which animals with more flexible adaptations and generally smaller body size were better suited. Larger animals also tend to have lower reproductive rates, making them more vulnerable to changing, unstable conditions.

Concurrent archaeological data suggests that humans living at that time also had to become more flexible, broadening their adaptive strategies to cope with a changing, less stable environment. One indication of the need to expand their range of resource procurement comes in the form of the exploitation of a wider range of lithic raw materials for stone tool manufacture.

In the region under study, raw materials used for making Acheulean tools typically came from a distance of no more than five kilometers. By contrast, MSA artifact assemblages include tools made of obsidian, a volcanic rock only available from sources 25 to 95 kilometers away. This may indicate not only a larger procurement/trade range, but also a greater sophistication in tool technology, both in manufacture and use, since obsidian, which is volcanic glass, can be used to make sharper, more delicate tools than coarser grained stones.

Acheulean and Middle Stone Age tools [Credit: Human Origins Program, Smithsonian]

One notable change in tool technology at this time is the appearance of smaller projectile (presumably spear) points, which is suggestive of the hunting of smaller animals, consistent with the observed change in the fauna.

The authors of the Science Advances paper cite ethnographic evidence from recent populations that humans with a hunter-gatherer economy “tend to increase their investment in technology, expand their range of resource acquisition, and rely on distant social alliances and exchange networks in situations of heightened resource unpredictability and risk.” They then postulate that environmental instability during the time range of 500,000 to 300,000 years ago, as documented in the core samples, would likely have prompted similar responses by humans at that time.

Human groups with hunter-gatherer economies are dependent on the natural spatial distribution, abundance, and seasonal availability of food resources as well as the distribution of lithic raw materials and other necessities such as potable water. To survive in a given environment, the group must develop a “seasonal round,” placing them at the right places and times across the landscape in order to effectively and efficiently exploit the available natural resources necessary to maintain a sustainable diet and obtain the needed raw materials for their technology.

If a particular locality provides sufficient reliable food and raw materials in a limited geographic range, the human inhabitants will be able to maintain a fairly small “home range.”

If, on the other hand, the necessary resources are spatially or temporally dispersed, and/or of limited quantity or quality at any given location, the group will have to travel more widely across the landscape to meet its needs.

If environmental conditions become less stable, altering the seasonality, spatial distribution, or abundance of food resources or sources of water on which a group relies, its economic adaptation will come under stress. This would necessitate a widening of the group’s home range and/or the establishment of trade/exchange networks with adjacent groups.

Another adaptive measure is to develop new technologies that would increase the effectiveness of exploitation of existing resources and/or open new resources for incorporation into the diet. The shift from Acheulean to the more complex MSA stone tool technology is consistent with such a change.

The need for wider, inter-regional interactions between human populations during the period in question than had previously been the case would likely have necessitated the development of social mechanisms to mediate relations between different groups, such as shared symbolic representations (possibly including the use of pigments, which have been found in archaeological sites in this area) and perhaps intermarriage. The expansion and increased complexity of intergroup social relations along with the adoption of more sophisticated stone tool technology imply an expanded mental capacity. The contemporary first appearance of the earliest Homo sapiens strongly suggests an evolutionary correlation.

While this study is based on data from one region of Africa, the authors suggest that the MSA cultural practices and technology documented in the Kenya Rift Valley would have provided adaptive advantages across other areas as well.

Converging Priorities: India, France and Germany in the Indo-Pacific

Siddharth Anil Nair


India’s maritime security has been increasingly threatened by China over the past decade. Beijing’s ‘nine-dash line’ claim in the South China Sea (SCS), its false claim of a historical "maritime silk road" to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), along with its rise as the world’s largest naval power, have made it a disruptive force in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR).

Beijing’s territorial expansionism and economic imperialism have also provoked a response from a growing number of regional and extra-regional actors. France and Germany are among the latest adoptees of the IPR concept. This commentary will explain how Paris and Berlin’s material and normative interests in the IPR overlap New Delhi’s.

Overlapping Values and Interests

India’s maritime security is ensured by the development of national capacity and the preservation of ‘regional multilateralism’ in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). These two priorities operate within New Delhi’s primary and secondary interest areas, i.e. areas that are closer (IOR) and farther away (IPR), respectively.

French “openness” to, and German “promotion” of, bilateral and multilateral capacity-building measures on climate change, digital technologies, human rights, military technology, etc. not only meet India’s growing capacity needs in the IOR, but also empower its predominance in the larger IPR. While Paris, Berlin, and New Delhi use different terminologies, the values they embody are by and large similar.

There appears to be continuing concern about the European Union’s (EU) economic dependence on China impairing truly effective responses. However, growing scepticism about the future of EU-China relations, a “strong need for an international mobilisation to counter” Beijing’s unilateralism in the China Seas, and determination to balance the economic relationship showcase France and Germany’s willingness to stand up to China.

Paris’ desire to “avoid hegemony” is similar to Berlin's desire to “avoid unilateral dependencies.” Both are matched by New Delhi’s emphasis on the respect for territorial sovereignty, developing collective security, and preserving equal economic opportunity in the region. All three appear to subscribe to the essence of a “free, fair, open and rules-based” Indo-Pacific.

Having said that, French and German interests in the region differ. France, unlike Germany, still retains a number of territories in the IPR. Approximately 94.25 per cent of its exclusive economic zone is in the IPR; 30 per cent it in the IOR. France—again, unlike Germany—has a significant military presence in the region. Besides the protection of its departménts to the west near the Mozambique Channel, and territories to the south near the Antarctic Shelf, French troops in the IOR are engaged in a number of multilateral commitments. As a result, India’s partnership with both countries will also be different.

Converging Priorities

New Delhi’s primary maritime security priorities in the IOR, particularly in the west, from the Arabian Sea to the Laccadive Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, are mirrored by Paris’ regional priorities. Sustained military cooperation with France would best fit India’s approach to its primary interests.

A joint security partnership, driven by India-France maritime cooperation in the western IOR, and focused on sea lines of communication (SLOC)-protection, surveillance, anti-piracy/terrorism, and humanitarian assistance (HA)/disaster relief (DR) missions will allow India to maintain its ‘net security’ provider status in the IOR. The 2018 logistics agreement lays the foundation for this synergy. Such a partnership will develop mutual capacity as well as set standards for collective regional security for other actors in the IOR, some of whom still retain traditional ties with France. The recently held India-France-Australia trilateral also signals Paris’ interest in enhancing involvement in the larger IOR.

While the Indo-German partnership may not be so muscular, Berlin’s normative, regulatory, and economic power, and its current position as president of the EU Council, makes it a critical partner in preserving and promoting a more multilateral spirit in the IOR and the wider IPR. The German Indo-Pacific guidelines and the joint French-German Alliance for Multilateralism” offer a robust framework for longer-lasting ‘theme-based’ networks in the IPR. By moving beyond security to include issues such as human rights and climate change, the German approach to the IPR broadens the scope for multilateral cooperation.

Such networks will help foster greater geo-economic and geopolitical relationships with actors beyond India’s primary areas of interest in East Asia and West Africa. It will lend weight to counter-balancing Beijing’s disruptive global agenda. Given that the French and German visions are eventually expected to feed into a larger common EU vision for the IPR, the convergences with India will give New Delhi a springboard to build a long-term geostrategic partnership with the EU.

IPR: New Delhi’s Reorientation

India’s geo-strategic orientation is compelled by the ongoing standoff with China. It is also influenced by its relationships with Japan and the US. The concept of the IPR—its origins in the “confluence of the seas”—has guided New Delhi to take on a more Pacific-oriented approach, i.e. the Act East policy,  “Malacca Dilemma”, Andaman Nicobar Command, Quad, etc.

Partnering with France and Germany will provide India the opportunity to strengthen extant relationships in its primary and secondary interest areas (through collective security and regional multilateralism). It will also wean New Delhi away from its current Pacific-oriented approach to a more comprehensive view of maritime security in the IOR.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2021

Application Deadline: 10th November 2020

About the Award: The EP is a three-year program consisting of two 18-month assignments. It is aimed at talented, recent PhD graduates who are excited by the opportunity to gain operational experience and further develop their macroeconomics expertise, while making a direct and meaningful contribution on a global stage to fostering monetary cooperation, securing financial stability, facilitating international trade, promoting high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reducing poverty.

Type: PhD, Job

Eligibility: We are seeking between 20 and 30 top economists from around the world who:

  • Have recently completed or are expected to complete a PhD within a year (or less) of joining in fields including macroeconomics, finance, public finance, monetary economics, international economics, trade, poverty issues, political economy, econometrics or related areas.
  • Possess an excellent academic record.
  • Have validated analytical, quantitative, and IT skills.
  • Show an interest in, and aptitude for, working in an international organization, and contributing to economic policy issues.
  • Be a national of one our member countries.
  • Be below age 34 at entry to the program on September 13, 2021.
  • Have strong written and oral English skills. Ideally, you will also be:
  • Motivated by making significant contributions to the economic well-being of our members. 
  • Able to demonstrate a sound understanding of macroeconomics (even if specialized in other areas during graduate school), able to utilize conceptual frameworks to commutate complex ideas, and be comfortable in navigating around the different sectors of an economy and the linkages between these sectors.
  • Able to undertake a combination of operational, analytical, and research work.
  • Versatile and flexible in learning about different areas while also possessing a strong field of relevant expertise.
  • A natural collaborator, motivated by exchanging information and ideas with others to reach common goals and making a substantial contribution to the team’s work.
  • Cultural agility and emotional intelligence to engage effectively internally and externally, develop relationships, and build strong networks.
  • Willingness to travel (can vary based on assignment but typically one-two missions per 18-month EP rotation)
  • Proficient in, or be willing to learn, foreign languages. (Languages other than English are useful but not a requirement.)

Selection Process: We will conduct an initial screening based on your application form and supporting documentation. If you are successful in meeting our initial criteria, you will receive an invitation for a preliminary interview by phone or by video. Following a successful preliminary stage (preliminary interview + transcript + references) we will invite you for a virtual panel interview. The preliminary and panel interview stage will take place through the end of the year and during January and the two steps may overlap.

We are keen to hear from adaptable, talented, and technically competent candidates who are curious and can find creative ways to address today’s global economic challenges. If you are interested in being part of a team that contributes to promoting economic stability on a global stage, we would welcome your application.

Eligible Countries: Any

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award:

  • Participants in the EP will apply their studies and research to policy work that impacts our 189 member countries and join a team of staff working to address the key global economic challenges. You will travel to countries where you will work closely with country authorities and carry out operational work related to the IMF’s mission. Depending on your assignments, EP participants will gain broad experience in regional and country-specific issues, as well as in fiscal, monetary, balance of payments, debt, or other related issues and contribute to our research and policy analysis agenda.
  • In combination with your work assignments, you will be able to participate in a range of training and development activities and will be mentored, guided, and supported by seasoned economists, all with a view of ensuring a satisfying and exciting start to your career at the IMF. 

Duration of Award: The EP is a three-year program consisting of two 18-month assignments.

How to Apply: Apply below

  • It is important to go through all application requirements in the Award Webpage (see Link below) before applying.

Visit Award Webpage for Details

VLIR-UOS Masters Scholarships (ICP) 2021/2022

Application Deadline: Application Deadlines depend on candidate’s chosen programme (See ‘How to Apply’ link below); deadlines generally Between 16 January and 1 March 2021.

Eligible Countries:

  • Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Cameroon, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Niger
  • Asia: Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Palestinian Territories, Vietnam
  • Latin America: Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Nicaragua, Peru

To be taken at (country): Belgium

Accepted Subject Areas: Only the following English taught courses at Belgian Flemish universities or university colleges are eligible for scholarships:

One-year master programmes

  • Master of Human Settlements – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Development Evaluation and Management – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Governance and Development – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Globalization and Development – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Cultural Anthropology and Development Studies – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021

Two-year programmes

  • Master of Science in Food Technology – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Science in Marine and Lacustrine Science and Management – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Aquaculture (IMAQUA) – Deadline for applications: 1 March 2021
  • Master of Epidemiology – Deadline for applications: 1 March 2021
  • Master of Agro-and Environmental Nematology – Deadline online copies: 3 January 2021. Please note you have to send a hard copy of your application and all requested documents to the programme coordinator before 16 January 2021!
  • Master of Rural Development – Deadline online application: 21 February 2021– deadline hard copies: 28 Feb 2021
  • Master of Statistics – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Water Resources Engineering – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Sustainable Development – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021
  • Master of Transportation Sciences – Deadline for applications: 1 February 2021

About the Award: VLIR-UOS awards scholarships to students from developing countries to study for a master or training programme in Flanders, Belgium. VLIR-UOS funds and facilitates academic cooperation and exchange between higher education institutions in Flanders (Belgium) and those in developing countries, which aims at building capacity, knowledge and experience for a sustainable development.

The master programmes focus on specific problems of developing countries. These are designed to enable graduates to share and apply acquired knowledge in the home institution and country. In the shorter training programmes the focus is on transferring skills rather than knowledge, thus creating opportunities for cooperation and networking.

Selection Criteria: The following criteria will be taken into account for the selection of candidates for a scholarship:

  • Motivation. The candidate who is not able to convincingly motivate his application, is unlikely to be selected for a scholarship.
  • Professional experience: Preference will be given to candidates who can demonstrate a higher possibility of implementing and/or transferring the newly gained knowledge upon return to the home country.
  • Gender. In case of two equally qualified candidates of different sexes, preference will be given to the female candidate.
  • Regional balance. The selection commission tries to ensure that 50% of a programme’s scholarships are granted to candidates from Sub-Saharan Africa, provided there is a sufficient number of qualifying candidates from this region.
  • Social background. In case of two equally qualified candidates, preference will be given to candidates who can demonstrate that they belong to a disadvantaged group or area within their country or an ethnic or social minority group, especially when these candidates can provide proof of leadership potential.
  • Previously awarded scholarships: Preference will be given to candidates who have never received a scholarship to study in a developed country (bachelor or master).

Eligibility: You can only apply for a scholarship if you meet the following requisites.

  1. Fungibility with other VLIR-UOS funding: A scholarship within the VLIR-UOS scholarship programme is not compatible with financial support within an IUC- or TEAM-project. Candidates working in a university where such projects are being organized, should submit a declaration of the project leader stating that the department where the candidate is employed is not involved in the project.
  2. Age: The maximum age for an ICP candidate is 35 years for an initial masters and 40 years for an advanced masters. The maximum age for an ITP candidate is 45 years. The candidate cannot succeed this age on January 1 of the intake year.
  3. Nationality and Country of Residence: A candidate should be a national and resident of one of the 31 countries of the VLIR-UOS country list for scholarships (not necessarily the same country) at the time of application.
  4. Professional background and experience: VLIR-UOS gives priority to candidates who are employed in academic institutions, research institutes, governments, social economy or NGO’s, or aim a career in one of these sectors. However, also candidates employed in the profit sector (ICP and ITP) or newly graduated candidates without any work experience (ICP) can be eligible for the scholarship. The ITP candidate should have relevant professional experience and a support letter confirming (re)integration in a professional context where the acquired knowledge and skills will be immediately applicable.
  5. Former VLIR-UOS scholarship applications and previously awarded scholarships: A candidate can only submit one VLIR-UOS scholarship application per year, irrespectively of the scholarship type. As a consequence, a candidate can only be selected for one VLIR-UOS scholarship per year.
  6. The ICP candidate has never received a scholarship from the Belgian government to attend a master programme or equivalent or was never enrolled in a Flemish higher education institution to attend a master programme or equivalent before January 1 of the intake year

Number of Awardees: VLIR-UOS will award up to 180 scholarships.

Value of Scholarship: The scholarship covers ALL related expenses (full cost).

Duration of Scholarship: The master programmes will last for one or two academic years.

How to Apply: 

  • To apply for a scholarship, you first need to apply for the Master programme.
  • To apply for the Masters programme, visit the website of the Master programme of your interest. Follow the guidelines for application for the programme as mentioned on its website.
  • In the programme application, you can mention whether you wish to apply for a scholarship. In case you do,  the programme coordinator forwards your application to VLIR-UOS.
  • Applications submitted by the candidates to VLIR-UOS directly will not be considered!

Visit Scholarship Webpage for more details

Why Google is Facing Serious Accusations of Monopoly Practices

Prabir Purkayastha


The U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Google-Alphabet (Alphabet is Google’s parent company) on October 20 for a range of anti-competitive practices using its monopoly power in the search market. It is the only major action in the U.S. against tech monopolies in recent years, the last one being the 1998 action against Microsoft. Eleven state attorneys general have joined the Department of Justice suit, with more expected to follow.

Google’s current market share in online searches globally stands at about 92 percent and rises to more than 98 percent in countries like India. The only market in which it has virtually no market share is in China, where it shut shop for its search engine in 2010.

The four major tech companies—Google-Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple—are globally on the radar for their monopoly power and their ability to drive out competition. The recent hearings in the U.S. Congress relating to the Big Four were followed by a staff report of the subcommittee on antitrust, commercial and administrative law that recommended appropriate legislative action to Congress to either break up or limit these companies.

Facebook has additionally come under the scanner for being an instrument of hate speech, helping the formation of violent militias, and promoting conspiracy theories, including COVID-19 conspiracies. A Delhi assembly committee—Committee on Peace and Harmony—is investigating Facebook’s role in Delhi’s communal riots that took place earlier in 2020 (full disclosure: I also deposed before this committee).

Meanwhile, Google faces the following charges in the lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice:

+ Creating a web of exclusionary and interlocking business agreements to shut out competitors

+ Paying mobile phone manufacturers and web browsers to make Google as their preset, default search engine

+ Controlling the online ad market with its selling and buying tools to ensure that web publishers are locked in

+ Using its control over the Android operating system to position its Chrome web browser and search engine as the default for mobile platforms

Much of these sound like legalese and beyond our ability to understand what Google is doing. The simple issue is that Google uses its monopoly over the search engine and its other Google properties to grab more than 30 percent—$103.73 billion in 2019—of the global digital ad revenue pie. Facebook has a little more than 20 percent, but today’s story is Google and not Facebook.

Google and Facebook have one similarity. Neither of them generates any content; they show users content generated by others. Their entire business model is capturing our eyeballs so that we, or our attention, can be sold to advertisers. Those who create content may get a small fraction of the ad revenue that Google generates, but the bulk of the digital revenue is appropriated by Google as the major gatekeeper of the digital world.

How does Google get so much of the ad revenue? Does its search engine not show other sites that a person searching on Google would also visit? And would these sites also not get a share of the online advertisements?

Visiting other sites via Google searches is decreasing year by year, as pointed out by Rand Fishkin, a leading expert on search engine optimization. During the House hearing on July 16, 2019, the chairman of the House Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust, commercial and administrative law, David Cicilline, said, “In 2004, Google’s cofounder Larry Page said the purpose of Google is to have people come to Google, quickly find out what you want and to get you out of Google and get you to the right place as fast as possible.” Fishkin shows with figures that this is not the case anymore; if it ever was. Today, the majority of searches on Google lead to no further clicks on the links in the displayed search pages (zero clicks).

In the browser search market, more than 50 percent of searches generate zero clicks on the search result page links. If clicks do occur, a significant share of such outgoing clicks is only for other Google sites such as YouTube, Google Maps, etc. Clicks on search pages leading outside the Google universe are dwindling every year.

The situation is worse with mobile searches than for the desktop market, where Google has a more dominant position. It might seem that Apple mobile phones should be independent of Google and, therefore, non-Google websites might fare better in Apple’s ecosystem of iPhones, iPad, etc. That, however, is not the case. Google pays an estimated $8 billion to $12 billionnearly 20 percent of Apple’s annual profits, for Apple to carry Google search and maps as the default setting for Apple phones and Siri.

These figures relate to the search engine outputs and the resulting clicks. What about the proportion of web traffic referrals that sites receive, meaning when sites are visited from other sites, where do they come fromSeventy percent of such web referrals on any site still come from Google properties. If a website gets on Google’s bad side, the site could fall into a deep black hole, which only the faithful will visit.

So, if a website owner wants to generate traffic for a site, the owner will have to configure the site in a way that Google can catalog all the content on the website easily. If Google makes changes, the website owner will have to adapt; otherwise, the site will not show up on Google searches, Google Amp pages, and Google News. All sites have to spend money to make Google’s task of crawling the web for content easier. If people want their videos to be viewed, the only realistic option is YouTube. And there is no way to fight with Google even if that means a dwindling share of ad revenue for a website owner. Google holds all the cards!

How does Google ensure that most search queries on Google lead to zero clicks? Zero clicks happen because Google increasingly curates the results of the queries, displaying the required information on the search result page itself so that most searchers do not go further. Even Wikipedia is worried, as its clicks from Google are dwindling.

Even when queries lead to other sites in the list of results, they also still lead to Google properties as they promote either the sites or the content of such sites—for example, YouTube videos on the search page are curated in such a way that people do not visit the world outside Google.

The rules of ranking that Google imposes on others do not apply to Google properties and sites, which have consistently higher rankings on Google searches than searches on other search engines like DuckDuckGo, Bing, etc. As Fishkin puts it, the answer to the question of how to be ranked number one on a Google search is an easy one: be owned by Google!

The European Union regulators have penalized Google on occasions, but Google has been happy to pay the fines, as the monopoly it has achieved through its anti-competitive action cannot be reversed. It is like license fees that telecom companies pay to secure the monopoly of the airwaves. In India too, Google has been fined, but the amount of the fine was a paltry $21 million. It does not even count as a rap on the knuckles for Google.

These tech monopolies are also facing action in the European Union and Australia and even in the UK. In the UK, the Monopolies and Mergers Commission (now renamed as the Competition and Markets Authority) was replaced with a weakened Competition Commission in 1999, a step which India quickly copied in 2002. Even with a weaker regulatory framework than the earlier anti-monopoly regulations, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority stated in its recent report that these companies “are now protected by such strong incumbency advantages—including network effects, economies of scale and unmatchable access to user data—that potential rivals can no longer compete on equal terms… We need a new, regulatory approach.”

India has been charting a very different course. Not only have the government and its regulatory agencies sheltered Reliance Jio in controlling the national telecom monopoly, but they have also ‘blessed’ huge investments from Google and Facebook of $4.5 billion and $5.7 billion respectively, helping cement all three of their monopolies. While all other technology partners bring in their technology tools and platforms, Jio’s key to success is its old-fashioned monopoly over India’s telecom network. India is slated to be the world’s biggest market after China in the coming decades.

The global anti-monopoly actions show that what we are witnessing is a tectonic shift in the way big tech companies and their owners are being viewed. Not as Ayn Rand’s imaginary captains of industry, who through superman-like powers are creating a new world, but simply as venal and predatory monopolies. Even in the fractured politics of the U.S., there seems to be a bipartisan consensus that monopolies are inherently dangerous to consumers and competitors alike. Otherwise, why would a Justice Department under Trump file a case against Google-Alphabet, in which, according to its spokespersons, nothing—presumably even breaking up the monopolies as advocated by Senator Elizabeth Warrenis off the table.

A Troubling Discovery in the Arctic

Robert Hunziker


A notable satellite-telephonic call to colleagues in late October from Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University briefly described a haunting discovery. On board the research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh, a 6,240-ton Russian scientific research vessel equipped with 17 on-board laboratories and a library, far off the coast of Russia, Dr. Gustafsson reported: “This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing.” (Source: Sleeping Giant Arctic Methane Deposits Starting to Release, Scientists Find, The Guardian, Oct. 27, 2020)

That satellite call referenced a sleeping giant that has enough carbon firepower to adversely impact the world’s climate system. The expedition discovered methane (CH4) that had been securely frozen in shallow subsea permafrost waters forever, and ever, and ever, now “stirring.” Colloquially, “The Monster of the North awakened.” (Although, in fairness to accuracy, the ESAS has been perturbed and leaking/seeping into the atmosphere for some time… but, now it’s much worse than ever before, and terrifyingly, it’s more noticeable to passersby, like expeditions of discerning scientists).

After all, there are scientists who believe the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and neighboring Russian coastline continental shelf seas contain enough methane in frozen hydrates to change human history forever, unfortunately, not for the betterment of civilization.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, as well as other Arctic seas off Russia’s northern coastline, has been the subject of clashing opinions within the scientific community.

Over the years, mainstream science has “talked down the risks” of a massive methane breakout in Arctic waters which could start a vicious cycle of runaway global warming that would be devastating on several fronts for civilized societies, and uncivilized too.

Three years ago, the U.S. Geological Survey labeled Arctic hydrates as one of the world’s four most serious causation events of abrupt climate change. Yet, according to USGS geophysicist Carolyn Ruppel, who oversees the USGS Gas Hydrates Project: “After so many years spent determining where gas hydrates are breaking down and measuring methane flux at the sea-air interface, we suggest that conclusive evidence for release of hydrate-related methane to the atmosphere is lacking.” (Gas Hydrate Breakdown Unlikely to Cause Massive Greenhouse Gas Release, US Geological Survey, Feb. 9, 2017)

According to USGS calculations, sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Along those lines, it’s important to note that methane (CH4) has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over its initial 20 years. Meaning CH4 has a sharper, quicker impact on global warming than does CO2.

That USGS position (“no conclusive evidence”) about the risk of methane release is now three years old. Thus, this new discovery prompts a logical question: Does the current expedition provide conclusive evidence of a change? Meaning, what’s the likelihood of an abrupt shift in the planet’s climate system as a result of the new discovery?

Assuming a major CH4 release, or big burp, is it possible it could lead to planet-wide upheaval? Accordingly, the expedition team reported: “At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered.” (Gustafsson)

Therein lies the problem: “It has been triggered.”

Along those lines, a Latin proverb suffices: “Forewarned is forearmed.” Clearly, the results of the Akademik Keldysh expedition qualify as “forewarned,” no doubt about that.

All of which prompts a significant question: How will countries throughout the world respond to this newly discovered risk to climate systems with its potential to damage agriculture and coastal cities beyond recognition?

In that regard, and based upon the nations of the world failing to adhere to voluntary commitments to the Paris 2015 climate accord to reduce carbon emissions, which in fact increase (Oops) year-over- year, the answer is: “It’s not encouraging, not at all.” Indeed, it is questionable that any nation/state anywhere will actually “forearm” as a result of this new report signaling: “The East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed.”

Furthermore, what does “forearmed” even look like? Realistically, how does a country prepare for an all-out assault on agriculture and coastlines by an out of whack runaway climate system? Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, according to the initial report from the 60-member team onboard the Akademik Keldysh expedition, the findings are only “preliminary.” The true scale of the discovery will be confirmed when full complements of data are analyzed and published peer-reviewed in a scientific journal.

Significantly, and tellingly, the discovery includes six monitoring points over a slope area of 150km (93 mi.) by 10km (6 mi.) with “clouds of bubbles released from sediment.” It should be noted that “clouds of bubbles” obviously implies one helluva lot of methane erupting from the seafloor. In point of fact, some measurements registered “methane concentrations 400 times higher than should be seen if the sea and the atmosphere were in equilibrium.” (Gustafsson)

By way of comparison to planetary distances, “400xs higher than equilibrium” is a trip to Pluto.

Islamophobia in France: Lessons for India

Sandeep Kumar


The gruesome beheading of a teacher in France has filled Muslim minority with fear of collective punishment. Communal reactionaries are spearheading hate against Muslims over Killings. The outpouring reactions of liberals and others have been on expected lines. More than 130 prominent Indians have also condemned killings. It has to an extent polarized Muslims and Majority religions across the world. Muslims countries are protesting on streets with boycott French products calls. And Hindutva forces have openly come in support of President Macron along with these liberals.

There is hardly mention of historical context behind such killings as if such acts are devoid of context and pop up from nowhere. Rightists made no mistake in cashing on this God sent opportunity to launch a smearing campaign against the entire Muslims community and Islam per se. Majority of critics have also equated these killings with Islamic Terrorism. Many of non-Muslims sections including a fraction of educated Muslim elites have come to believe that such killings are inspired from Islam. This is perhaps the best time for Islamophobic fear mongers to reap the harvest of hate which they have been sowing for decades.

It is useless to question communal right wingers as they are trained and pleased to spew hate against minorities particularly Muslims all across the world. These questions must be posed to the liberals and unfortunately a section of left liberals who ultimately end up serving the right wing hate euphoria in this spree of condemnation. By doing so, we all end up in further alienating Muslims and lose their confidence irrespective of how much we may pretend to feel for them.

These killings are just symptoms of larger malice of French society if when look at it from historical and present-day treatment of Muslims by French State and its deliberate policy of targeting its Muslim citizens. Media has also played a most reactionary and Islamophobic role across the world. France had been a colonial occupier in Muslim dominated Africa and Middle-East. Algeria was forcefully integrated into French State and subjected to immense Islamophobic discrimination in all spheres of life ranging from job discrimination, institutional otherness to hate crimes. Such discriminatory behavior transcends even after the independence of Algeria from France in 1962. Four millions Algerian Muslim migrants continue to be treated as second class citizens who don’t fit in the schemes of ‘French modernity’.

French State has been a declared offender of criminalizing Muslims for decades just like Indian State does with its Muslims. President Emmanuel Macron talks about “enlightened French Islam”, “reforming Islam”, “French Islam”, “reorganize Islam” and the need to liberate French Muslims from the influence of Arab countries so and so forth. Mocking of Prophet, Islamic symbols and criminalizing Muslims in political and social sphere have become so common and French State emboldens it in the name of ‘freedom of expression’. Earlier Macron had also brought politically motivated controversial Anti- Separatism Bill on the pretext of enforcing secularism and liberating French Islam from foreign influence. The proposed law intends to impose strict financial control over mosques, imams and their schoolings.

It has also launched a scathing attack on anti-racist organizations such as the Collective Against Islamophobia in France (CCIF) much like BJP government has been framing Muslims and other anti-CAA protestors. All this is being done to hide its failures on all fronts and to polarize majority against French Muslims ahead of elections in 2022.

For many mocking of Prophet may be a non-issue but for a person with faith who doesn’t harm anybody it is an issue. French State has been guilty of violating their fundamental freedom of expression. One may say mocking by making cartons is also a freedom of expression. For this, it must be said vocally that no freedom is absolute. Freedom of expression is practiced in given situation which is advanced with the advancement of society. We should be critical of only those aspects of religion which perpetuate oppression and hinder true democratization of the society. Mocking one’s religious symbols certainly do not hinder any democratization process. And, mocking of prophet is just one incident, there are many social and political actions which are being used to further marginalized French Muslims for decades. 9/11 attack gave big flip to islamophobia world over. French Muslims were started dubbing as Fifth column. Like communal Modi government is leaving no opportunity to criminalize Muslims, French President Macron is also desperately stigmatizing its Muslim citizens. It is accumulated pent up suffocation of alienation which often results in such manifestations.

What is disturbing is the liberals’ attitude who don’t lose no time to condemn killings while conveniently keep mum over the nature of Islamophobic French State and everyday discrimination by its institutions. They deliberately failed to acknowledge the simple fact that every phenomenon is always a product of its material social, political, religious and ideological conditions. Radicalization of minorities is also a product of its socio-political material conditions. It is not like that someday someone wake up and resort to killings. It is certainly a by-product of socially depressive, discriminatory and exploitative eco system which alienate its minority citizens. It is this pent up of depressive, discriminatory and feeling of otherness which propels individuals to resort to killings. Holding solely religion responsible is nothing but reductionist analysis. State and its alienating policies must be held responsible for stigmatizing its Muslim minorities. We are apparently in denial mode to find out the true causes of radicalization.

One more serious blunder committed by liberals and other alike in such cases is that of equating majority-minority religious fundamentalism. Both are politically different, therefore, must be treated differently. For example we should simply not equate Hindutva extremism with Islamic fanaticism in India. Both can’t be treated equally because Hindutva forces hold political power. They want to erect Hindu Rashtra by abandoning secularism on the dead bodies of minorities. Whereas minorities’ radicalization of Muslims if it emerges at all India, would emanate from insecurity psychosis foisted by right wing extremism. Hindutva forces not only openly flaunts its intension to galvanize minorities but they execute their professed intentions with the help of State and non-State actors. Due to political power and social structure of Indian society, the majority has the primary responsibility of keeping India secular by shedding its Islamophobic character. It is true for any other country which follows conscious policy of alienating its minority. This is one very important lesson India should learn from French experience.

The most determining factor in the making of an Islamophobic State is the silence of majority. Such killing is, unfortunately, the price of our collective silence against Majoritarianism. Until we do not collectively rise against the social, political and other structures responsible for Islamophobia, we can’t simply hope to live peacefully and harmoniously.

Therefore, we should categorically point out that merely diagnosing symptoms won’t lead us to correct understanding of such type of outburst. The root cause of the problem must be addressed concretely. If someone wants to condemn killings without analyzing the reactionary and Islamophobic role played by French State and its institutions, than, it is a superficial analysis. One can’t squarely put all blame on symptoms instead of root cause which many of us are unwilling to understand. When any communal state polarize society, such reactions are bound to happen. This is in no one’s hand. It is not a security issue. It is a political issue. Condemning such spontaneous killings without condemning Islamophobic French State tantamount to Islamophobia.

Crisis of American Dream

Bhabani Shankar Nayak


The political turmoil in American presidential election reflects the limits of capitalist constitution and crisis of market democracy in United States of America. Both Mr Donald Trump and Mr Joe Biden represent different versions of American capitalism. The imperialist foreign policy and domestic security states are twin pillars of American governance system. These twin pillars are going to stay whoever wins this presidential election. It will neither benefit the American society nor conducive for the world. The American Constitution limits emancipatory political and economic alternatives to flourish. The American constitutional democracy was shaped by Anglo-American legal frameworks, which promotes propertied classes and corporates for the growth of capitalism with constitutional protection.  The American political and economic dreams are shattered by the capitalism ingrained within American constitutional law and its practice.

The unfettered culture of individualism and consumerism emanating from the capitalist praxis did not help in the growth of individual freedom within American dream. It fortified the processes of capitalist accumulation within American constitutional and legal framework, which led to the freedom of legal contracts of private property. The industrial revolution in USA led to the further consolidation of capitalism by integrating American working classes within its culture of mass production; the foundation of American dream. The need-based American society was converted into a desire-based society in twentieth century to sustain, expand and globalise American capitalism. The economic dynamism of American capitalism gets its strength from the American political system sustained by its constitution. It has managed to emerge as the most successful and powerful system in the world.

American constitutional capitalism and its market democracy is showing all signs of its deteriorating democratic culture and marching towards authoritarianism led by political oligarchy of two-party system. The United States Supreme Court has enough judicial power granted by the American constitution which forces federal constitutions to serves its purpose of centralisation of power. The centralisation of power is central to capitalism and American presidential system is designed in concomitant with the requirements of capitalism.

From the pre-industrial, or agricultural period prior to mid 19th century and the corporate industrial period of late 19th century to corporate capitalist monopoly of 20th century and finance capital of 21st century, American capitalism in all its forms gets its full support from dominant forces of American politics. Therefore, concentration of economic power in USA is a product of political consolidation of powerful forces in American society. Senator Boies Penrose was a Republican Senator from Pennsylvania during late 19th century. He told big businesses directly by asking that “you send us to Congress; we pass the laws under which you make money and out of your profits you further contribute to our campaigns funds to send us back again to pass more laws to enable you to make more money”. This is the foundation and fate of many democracies in the world today. From Westphalian democracies to postcolonial democracies, the corporate led market forces are dominating the political forces.

The spirit of capitalist accumulation moves along with American democracy and complement each other. It is the rule of capitalist classes within the constitutional frameworks. The constitutional frameworks are adjusted as per the changing circumstances, needs and desires of the capitalist classes in America. The political regimes, constitutional laws, and economic structures are interwoven with each other and work together to uphold the class rule, which mass produces inequalities in all areas of American life. Therefore, the political freedom does not breed economic prosperity for majority of working-class Americans. There is a growing gap between political freedom and economic liberties within American society.

In this way, the constitutional capitalism in USA has established a lopsided society based on marginalisation, exploitation and inequalities. The economic alienation reduces American citizenship to a mere symbol of political freedom without material foundation for empowerment of citizenship rights and liberties of majority of Americans. The issues of unemployment, debt trap, hunger and homelessness are exposing the dubious American dream, which converted human lives into orderly objects within a market led society. Deaths and destitutions are posing a serious threat to American democracy and destroys many progressive, transformatory and positive aspects of American constitution.

The American experiments with constitutional capitalism have reached its dead-end. Socialisation of risk, marginalisation of individuals and their democratic rights, and privatisation of prosperity cannot be a model for governance in a liberal and constitutional democracy. The constitution cannot be selective upholding rights and ownership of corporates and landed elites in USA. The American capitalist classes get all forms of immunities of law with the help of different contractual clauses like; contract clause, equality clause, due process clause and commerce clause. These clauses enjoy absolute freedom. The ‘freedom of contract’ derives its ideological origin within Adam Smith’s doctrine of laissez faire. The so-called free democracy is imprisoned within a capitalist economic framework within the provisions of constitutional laws shaped by the capitalist classes in USA.

The self-inflicted crisis of American dream is inherent within capitalism as a political, economic, social and cultural system. The commodification of nature, human creativities and lives are primary source of profit making within capitalism. The commodification produces metabolic rift between interests of the capitalism and human necessities. These fundamental contradictions reflect in every step of human life in the name of efficiency and economy that serves the capitalist classes. Any search for alternatives needs to understand these social, political and economic dynamism of capital within America and beyond.  Therefore, the struggle for alternatives within and outside America need to demand transformation of capitalist foundations of constitutional laws. The struggle for political, economic and cultural democracy and freedom based on shared peace and prosperity can be the only alternative for the present and future. Let’s start our struggles to save our present and fortify our future beyond boundaries as global citizens of this planet.

Conflict in Ethiopia extends the Greater Middle East’s arc of crisis

James M. Dorsey & Alessandro Arduino


Ethiopia, an African darling of the international community, is sliding towards civil war as the coronavirus pandemic hardens ethnic fault lines. The consequences of prolonged hostilities could echo across East Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

Fighting between the government of Nobel Peace Prize winning Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Tigrayan nationalists in the north could extend an evolving arc of crisis that stretches from the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict in the Caucasus, civil wars in Syria and Libya, and mounting tension in the Eastern Mediterranean into the strategic Horn of Africa.

It would also cast a long shadow over hopes that a two-year old peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea that earned Mr. Ahmed the Nobel prize would allow Ethiopia to tackle its economic problems and ethnic divisions.

Finally, it would  raise the spectre of renewed famine in a country that Mr. Ahmed was successfully positioning as a model of African economic development and growth.

The rising tensions come as  Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan failed to agree on a new negotiating approach to resolve their years-long dispute over a controversial dam that Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile River.

US President Donald Trump recently warned that downstream Egypt could end up “blowing up” the project, which Cairo has called an existential threat.

Fears of a protracted violent confrontation heightened after the government this week mobilized its armed forces, one of the region’s most powerful and battle-hardened militaries, to quell an alleged uprising in Tigray that threatened to split one of its key military units stationed along the region’s strategic border with Eritrea.

Tension between Tigray and the government in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa has been mounting since Mr. Ahmet earlier this year diverted financial allocations intended to combat a biblical scale locust plague in the north to confront the coronavirus pandemic.

The tension was further fuelled by a Tigrayan rejection of a government request to postpone regional elections because of the pandemic and Mr. Ahmed’s declaration of a six-month state of emergency. Tigrayans saw the moves as dashing their hopes for a greater role in the central government.

Tigrayans charge that reports of earlier Ethiopian military activity along the border with Somalia suggest that Mr. Ahmed was planning all along to curtail rather than further empower the country’s Tigrayan minority.

Although only five percent of the population, Tigrayans have been prominent in Ethiopia’s power structure since the demise in 1991 of Mengistu Haile Mariam, who ruled the country with an iron fist. They assert, however, that Mr. Ahmed has dismissed a number of Tigrayan executives and sidelined businessmen in the past two years under the cover of a crackdown on corruption.

Like Turkey in the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa, Mr. Ahmed may be seeing a window of opportunity at a moment that the United States is focused on its cliff hanger presidential election, leaving the US African Command with no clear direction from Washington on how to respond to the escalating tension in the Horn of Africa.

Escalation of the conflict in Tigray could threaten efforts to solidify the Ethiopian-Eritrean peace process; persuade Eritrean leader Isaias Afwerki, who has no love lost for Tigray, to exploit the dispute to strengthen his regional ambitions; and draw in external powers like Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, who are competing for influence in the Horn.

The conflict further raises the spectre of ethnic tension elsewhere in Ethiopia, a federation of ethnically defined autonomous regions against the backdrop in recent months of skirmishes with and assassinations of ethnic Amhara, violence against Tigrayans in Addis Ababa, and clashes between Somalis and Afar in which dozens were reportedly injured and killed.

Military conflict in Tigray could also accelerate the flow of Eritrean migrants to Europe who already account for a significant portion of Africans seeking better prospects in the European Union.

A Balkanization of Ethiopia in a part of the world where the future of war-ravaged Yemen as a unified state is in doubt would remove the East African state as the linchpin with the Middle East and create fertile ground for operations by militant groups.

“Given Tigray’s relatively strong security position, the conflict may well be protracted and disastrous. (A war could) seriously strain an Ethiopian state already buffeted by multiple grave political challenges and could send shock waves into the Horn of Africa region and beyond,” warned William Davison, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.