James Webb Space Telescope successfully launches

Bryan Dyne & Don Barrett

The joint NASA, European Space Agency (ESA) and Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronomical observatory, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), successfully launched from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana at 12:20 UTC on December 25. The spacecraft was lifted above Earth aboard an Ariane 5 launch vehicle and is now past the Moon as it travels to its final observing point.

The JWST, when fully operational, will peer deeper into the Universe than any previous astronomical instrument. Its primary mirror consists of 18 hexagonal gold-plated segments that are designed to combine into one 6.5 meter diameter mirror, more than seven times the light-gathering power of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). It was designed by thousands of scientists and engineers from 20 countries and will view further away—and thus further back in time—to when the first galaxies formed over 13.5 billion years ago.

The James Webb Space Telescope moments after separation from the final stage of its Ariane V launch vehicle, about 29 minutes after takeoff. The Gulf of Aden on Earth can be seen in the background. Credit: Arianespace, ESA, NASA, Canadian Space Agency, CNES

Webb marks an immense scientific and engineering achievement. Its development over the course of 25 years is a further vindication of the materialist outlook of history, that humans can develop a scientific understanding of society and the world and, through that understanding, master nature and themselves. At the same time, the retrograde attitude of the bourgeoisie toward science was on display in the words of NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, a former Democratic senator from Florida, who asserted that astronomy was akin to “the glory of God” because “the firmament shows His handiwork,” quoting Psalm 19, and because telescopes “capture the light from the very beginning of the Creation.”

The first of hundreds of steps in fully deploying the telescope have so far gone flawlessly. The launch, separation of the telescope from the final stage of the rocket and release of JWST’s solar array were carried out exactly as planned. The fourth major milestone, an initial course correction burn 12.5 hours after launch, set the telescope on a precisely calculated trajectory toward its operational station-keeping location. A day after the burn, the spacecraft’s high-gain communication antenna deployed, which will allow all subsequent deployments to be commanded manually by mission controllers.

There remain, however, hundreds of steps before the JWST is fully operational, the most critical of which is the unfolding of the telescope’s delicate sunshield. The JWST is optimized to observe in infrared light, which means the mirrors and detectors must be kept very cool in order to function. The sunshield consists of five layers of Kapton, an extraordinarily thin and light material, coated with reflective metals that reflect away the heat of the Sun, as well as from Earth and the Moon, designed to separate an 110 degrees Celsius (230 degrees Fahrenheit) hot side from a −223 degrees Celsius (−370 degrees Fahrenheit) cold side in just six feet.

In order to fit in the Ariane 5, however, the sunshield had to be folded up, and now each of its layers must be uncovered, unfurled and drawn taut in space. Dozens of individual steps must be perfectly performed over the next several days, all of which are remotely commanded as the telescope is well beyond humanity’s reach for a manned repair mission. If any of the steps fail, the telescope will be crippled, if not doomed.

The mirror was similarly folded and must undergo an analogous unfolding. After the sunshield is deployed, motors attached to the secondary mirror and the two “wings” of the primary mirror, each consisting of three mirror segments, will steadily move each aspect of the telescope into place. Locks will then hold the disparate parts together, completing the mirror assembly.

A rendering of the JWST when it is fully deployed. Credit: NASA

If all goes well, the sunshield will be deployed by the beginning of next week, and the mirrors will be locked in place a week after that. During the following two weeks, the individual mirror segments will be aligned with each other to form the largest space-based telescope.

By the time this alignment is complete, 29 days after launch, the JWST will perform a final insertion burn to enter its final halo orbit at the Sun-Earth Lagrange point 2 (L2). The destination is a point of gravitational stability that is perpetually behind Earth relative to the Sun, 1.5 million kilometers (930,000 miles) away. This orbital option is popular for astronomy—telescopes which have used this point include the cosmology satellites Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and Planck and the space telescopes Herschel and Gaia—because it offers isolation from the warmth of the Sun and Earth, as well as station-keeping maintained with minimal fuel.

Once JWST settles into its orbit about L2, the telescope’s operators at the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Maryland, will begin fully commissioning the spacecraft for scientific missions, which are expected to begin in six months.

History and science of space telescopes and the JWST

The modern conceptions of astronomy enabled by lofting a telescope above the Earth’s atmosphere date from 1946, when Lyman Spitzer Jr. (1914–1997) wrote a paper outlining “Astronomical Advantages of an Extra-terrestrial Observatory.” He noted that a space telescope could observe wavelengths of light which cannot penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere and record higher-quality images without its disturbance. Such observatories, he said, were “not to supplement our present ideas of the universe we live in, but rather to uncover new phenomena not yet imagined, and perhaps to modify profoundly our basic concepts of space and time.”

Since 1964, US astronomy has undertaken a deliberative study every decade involving its entire scientific community to organize and prioritize its most fundamental and largest scale tasks, among these making Spitzer’s vision a reality. These “Decadal Surveys” outline improvements on past accomplishments and the expansion of aspirations as science progresses. The report ahead of the 1970s was explicit: “The ultimate objective … should be the development of a National Space Observatory [which would become the Hubble Space Telescope]. … The exciting role that such a large space telescope (LST) could play in astronomy in the decades to come is discussed. … The LST should lead to a much improved understanding of the most fundamental problems in cosmology, as well as of the broad range of astronomical problems presently being investigated.”

The report ahead of the 1980s noted that this continuing program, which culminated with launching the Hubble Space Telescope in 1990, “will represent one of the most momentous advances in astronomical instrumentation since Galileo’s first telescope.” It also identified the importance of follow-up space telescopes to expand the reach of astronomy into the infrared, much of which cannot penetrate the atmosphere. The 1990s decadal report put the infrared Spitzer Space Telescope atop the list of space priorities following Hubble, but noted, “We must begin now the conceptual planning and technological development for the next generation of [space] astronomy missions to follow,” giving as an example a telescope of specifications remarkably close to JWST. The follow-up 2000s decadal report put this “Next Generation Space Telescope,” as it was known until 2002, as its highest priority (and most expensive) item: “Its potential for new discoveries will easily rival that of HST when it was launched.”

Such conceptual planning necessarily must grapple with not just known science, but future anticipated discoveries enabled by improved technique. The early planning meetings for what would become JWST took place even before its predecessor Hubble was launched. One of chief scientific tasks prioritized early on was to better characterize the formation and properties of planets outside of our own solar system—this before even a single extrasolar planet had yet been identified!

As an example, the original prime scientific justification for the Hubble Space Telescope was to record the properties of a particular category of pulsating stars that serve as yardsticks for measuring distance several times further than was possible with telescopes from the ground. This would place the calibration of distances across the universe on a firmer footing and perhaps raise new issues in the consensus of cosmological understanding. All of this happened—including the new issues!—but as Spitzer foresaw, so much more would unfold over its years of productivity.

And thus Hubble also confirmed the hypothesis of giant black holes at the center of galaxies, took ultra-deep images of the universe at great distances looking back to the early assembly of galaxies, established the existence of matter filaments linking galaxies, probed the chemistry of gas between the stars, resolved images of collapsing disks of gas surrounding newborn stars from which planets are thought to form, verified that powerful gamma-ray bursts are not nearby but at vast cosmological distances and during their several-second lifetimes are the brightest objects in the universe—and more.

Following the success of Hubble, four themes for scientific discovery were outlined for the JWST: 1) to discover “first light,” when the darkness of the cooling universe from the Big Bang, filled only with gas, began to fill with newly born stars; 2) to characterize the earliest assembly of galaxies from these stars and the gas from which they formed; 3) to detail the processes involved in the birth of modern stars and planetary systems surrounding them; and 4) to study such planetary systems to uncover the origins of life.

Instruments and capabilities of JWST

Realizing these aspirations dictated the size of the telescope, the colors of light which it would be optimized to collect, and the mix of instruments and their capabilities which would process the light after the telescope gathered it. Four instruments sit at the business end of the telescope, each optimized to study the collected light differently.

Three of the instruments record primarily visible light and the nearby region extending beyond the red end of the visible spectrum. These include the large 40 megapixel survey camera NIRCam provided by the University of Arizona, the Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSPec) built by NASA and its Goddard Space Flight Center and the Fine Guidance Sensor/Near InfraRed Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (FGS/NIRISS) built by the CSA. The two spectrographs further separate and record the distribution of light by color to produce a kind of fingerprint which reveals physical properties of the objects being observed; in the case of NIRSpec hundreds can be recorded simultaneously.

The final instrument, the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI), designed by the ESA with contributions from NASA and the Goddard Space Flight Center, pushes far beyond visible light, extending to wavelengths five times longer than those of the other instruments, or 35 times beyond wavelengths the human eye can perceive. At these wavelengths, it performs both imaging and spectroscopy on its targets.

The emphasis on infrared light arose from a number of factors: the Hubble Space Telescope was optimized to look at visible light and even shorter ultraviolet wavelengths. JWST will complement its capabilities. But the emphasis on the early universe and on collapsing cool gas clouds that form galaxies, stars and planets also dictates this design principle. The early universe is rapidly expanding away from us, and this expansion shifts toward the infrared—dramatically so at its limits—the colors of radiation emitted from objects by the time it reaches us. Additionally, protogalaxies, protostars and protoplanets are cool compared to the objects best studied by Hubble in visible light: they emit the great bulk of their radiation in the infrared. Furthermore, these objects are dusty, and dust blocks visible light from emerging. And, in studying planets outside the solar system, the glare from the enormously brighter parent stars is reduced compared to the brightness of the planets themselves in the infrared.

And finally, infrared technology itself was primitive when Hubble was conceived and built. It has advanced enormously in terms of the size and sensitivity of the solid-state “chips” now used to record it, which has opened up new space for discovery.

The optimizations for these studies dictate station-keeping the telescope 1.5 million kilometers away in its L2 parking orbit, where it can shield itself perpetually from the warmth of not only the Sun but the Earth. It motivated the development of the sophisticated sunshield to allow the telescope to cool even without additional refrigeration to temperatures only 45 Kelvin above absolute zero. For the MIRI instrument, which probes furthest into the infrared and will study the coolest objects, it dictated that additional refrigeration be added to chill its components even further, to only 7 Kelvin above absolute zero. Otherwise, its own warmth would contaminate its measurements.

Capitalist politics and the space program

The many scientific possibilities of Webb, however, have been long disrupted by the project’s numerous delays and aborted cancellations. Formal development of a telescope beyond Hubble began in 1989, a year before that mission was launched. Astronomers were aware that Hubble was, from an observational standpoint, not the end but the start of what could be achieved by a space-based observatory.

These plans coalesced into a proposal submitted in 1996 named the Next Generation Space Telescope, which called for an 8 meter diameter telescope that would be launched in 2007 and an estimated budget of $500 million. The original 1996 budget was in reality never going to be met by such an ambitious project, and was set by the 1990s NASA leadership as the agency pushed for “faster, better, cheaper” spacecraft. A far better estimate of the cost was published in 1984 by the Space Science Board, which noted that an infrared observatory built after Hubble would cost about $7 billion in 2006 dollars.

The 1984 estimate proved to be fairly accurate. By 2002, NASA’s cost estimate for the project had grown to $2.5 billion, the same year the project was renamed for NASA’s second administrator (1961-68), James E. Webb. That year the size of the mirror was also scaled back, from 8 meters to the current 6.5 meter design. By 2006, the cost had grown to $4.5 billion.

Some of these delays were caused as the science driving the mission developed and became more concrete. A major progress report from that year described the JWST as a “large, cold, infrared-optimized space telescope designed to enable fundamental breakthroughs in our understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxies, stars, and planetary systems.” Now, however, it is understood that the telescope’s capabilities are in fact inadequate to detect the first stars individually, though it is hoped that the first galaxies can be recorded.

Beyond the actual difficulties and costs of building such a complex spacecraft, however, the project also suffered more than a decade of underfunding from both Democratic- and Republican-controlled Congresses. Rather than provide the necessary funding for JWST up front, NASA was only ever barely allocated enough funding to continue the project year by year, causing a snowball effect of additional delays and costs.

This process culminated in 2011, four years after the original launch date, after $3 billion had been spent and three-quarters of the telescope’s hardware was in development. Rather than continue the project, the House of Representatives appropriations committee on Commerce, Justice, and Science moved to cancel the project altogether. It was only saved after an immense outcry, from both the astronomical community and the general public, against the devastating impact on future scientific endeavors.

The total cost of the project is now expected to be about $10 billion.

While the astronomy community has generally supported the JWST, it has drawn criticism because of its immense cost and complexity. The high cost of the telescope has meant that many other projects have been pushed back or canceled as a result. A 2010 Nature article wrote that the JWST was “the telescope that ate astronomy.” The high complexity of the mission means that if anything goes wrong from now until the telescope is deployed, the past 25 years may amount to zero astronomical gain.

That the JWST costs so much, however, is not a true reason to oppose the mission. When Congress proposed to cancel it in 2011, that same body had no issue passing the Obama administration’s $712 billion defense budget. In contrast, the total amount NASA has spent since its inception (adjusted for inflation) is about $650 billion, a quarter of which was spent on the Apollo program that put men on the Moon. The lack of funding in astronomy—and science, health care, education and all other aspects of social life—are dictated above all by the need of American and world capitalism to feed the ever increasing appetite of the stock market and to fuel the drive to war across the globe.

As particle physicist Robert Wilson noted in 1978: “There has never been a French electricity, or a German mechanics, or an American atomic physics. The whole field advances as one big international collaboration, and physics is the same in every country of the world.” Space astronomy is one of the most fundamental demonstrations of this principle.

COVID-19 danger persists in Japan as Omicron variant takes hold

Emily Ochiai & Ben McGrath

As the COVID-19 pandemic worsens around the world, Japan appears to be enjoying a respite. Appearances, however, are deceptive. In fact, Tokyo’s policy towards the pandemic is preparing a new wave of infections as the first cases of community transmission of the highly infectious Omicron variant are recorded.

A nurse protests being sent to the Tokyo Olympics holding a sign that says: “We are not expendable pawns. (Source: Twitter/Irouren)

Throughout the course of the pandemic, more than 1.7 million people have been infected and more than 18,300 people have died in Japan. Infections reached a peak of more than 20,000 a day in August but have since plunged. On Sunday the number of new infections was just 263 across Japan. The number of seriously ill COVID-19 patients was 38, up by one from the previous day. No deaths were reported.

Scientists are investigating various hypotheses to explain the sharp drop in cases and deaths. However, as Taro Yamamoto, professor of global health at Nagasaki University’s Institute of Tropical Medicine, told the Washington Post, “Honestly, we do not know the exact reason behind the sudden drop in COVID deaths in Japan.”

Part of the explanation lies in the limited character of testing and contact tracing in Japan. Michinori Kohara, a researcher at the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Science, published a study last month on underreported and asymptomatic positive cases. He told the Washington Post that the official figures probably only recorded a quarter to one tenth of the actual number of cases up until recently when testing became more widely available.

Another factor was the response of ordinary people to the very high numbers of infections following the Summer Olympics when case numbers hit a record high of 26,184 on August 22 and the hospitals were overwhelmed. The crisis led to widespread support for social distancing and mask wearing.

Medical professor Yoshiaki Katsuda told News Post Seven, “There has been a decrease in people visiting high-risk areas with a history of breakouts like the mall. The percentage of those vaccinated increased. And air ventilation efforts have been enforced. All of these factors could have led to the decrease in case numbers.”

Opinion polls reveal that people are taking precautions. In a poll reported on December 20, FNN Prime Online news revealed that 87.4 percent of respondents expressed concern about another wave of COVID-19 and nearly 80 percent stated they would avoid traveling or visiting family during the holiday season due to the new Omicron variant threat.

Nearly 80 percent of the population intended to receive the third dose of the vaccine. At this stage, however, less than 1 percent of the population has received a booster shot.

Large COVID-19 outbreaks are continuing. The Okinawa prefectural government stated on December 22 that over 223 people tested positive during an eight-day period at Camp Hansen, a United States Marine Corps base. This includes five confirmed cases, including two Japanese workers, of the Omicron variant. An employee at another US base, Camp Schwab in Nago, Okinawa, also tested positive for the Omicron variant. Dozens of factory workers in Ota, Gunma Prefecture have also tested positive for the virus in December.

As of December 23, there are over 200 confirmed infection cases of the Omicron variant throughout Japan, including two workers at Kansai Airport’s quarantine facility. Four cases of Omicron infection have been reported in Osaka, a prefecture that was the epicenter of Japan’s fourth wave of COVID-19 infection in May, resulting in a devastating healthcare crisis. This includes a school teacher, a woman in her 30s and a child under ten, all of whom were hospitalized. In addition, untraceable Omicron infections have been discovered in Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukuoka.

Professor of infectious disease Kazuhiro Tateda at Toho University warned in an interview with national broadcaster NHK, “Considering that there will be increased interaction and gatherings with the holiday season and the decreased efficacy of the vaccine with more than six months after the vaccines were administered, there are minimal factors that would reduce the infection.”

According to research by the Nagoya Institute of Technology, it is estimated that daily infections will rise to 3,000 by the end of January 2022 and more than 3,700 cases by mid-February.

Koji Wada, a professor of public health at the International University of Health and Welfare and member of the government’s COVID response panel, told the Japan Times, “The central government remains focused on protecting the border but it needs to shift to a different response under the assumption that the [Omicron] variant will spread domestically.” But, he added rather ominously, “that shift has not been made yet.”

In response to reports of the Omicron variant, the Japanese government has shut its borders. On November 27, it imposed an entry ban on people coming from six countries including South Africa. It then extended the ban to three more African nations the following day before expanding the restrictions to include all foreigners on November 30.

The border controls have been bound up with attempts by the ruling class to paint the pandemic as a “foreign” problem. In June last year, then Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso declared that the Japanese “mindo” protected the population from COVID-19. The term evokes Japanese nationalism and ethnic superiority and implies that Japan’s cultural standards are more advanced than “barbaric” foreigners.

In September as the latest wave began to subside, Aso boasted, “The coronavirus has been resolved in some way or another, and the international community’s evaluation [of Japan] is extremely high.” His comments are part of the government’s efforts to lull the population into a false sense of security and to herd people back to work so as to boost profits for big business.

While the government last week revised its growth estimate for the 2022 fiscal year upwards to 3.2 percent, the revised economic data for the third quarter this year showed the economy shrank by 3 percent on an annualized basis.

CDC surrenders US population to the spread of Omicron

Patrick Martin

As the Omicron variant of coronavirus surges exponentially and out of control, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Monday afternoon a radical change in its isolation and quarantine guidelines, not to defend the American people from this impending disaster but to preemptively capitulate to it.

Elementary school students on the first day of classes in Richardson, Texas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

The CDC is cutting its recommendation of a 10-day isolation period for positive cases—itself an arbitrary reduction from the 14 days recommended by epidemiologists—to five days of isolation, followed by five days of mask-wearing, for those without symptoms. 

For those in contact with a positive case but not infected themselves, there was a similar cut in the recommended isolation period from 10 days to five days for those who are fully vaccinated, and to zero for those who have received booster shots.

Since asymptomatic people can be infectious for 10 days or even longer, this means that hundreds of thousands—and soon millions, given the exponential spread of Omicron—will be sent into workplaces to infect their co-workers.

Even those fully boosted have only 75 percent protection against Omicron. That means that if 60 million people who have received booster shots come into contact with a COVID-19 case and are sent back to work without even a day off, 15 million of them would be carrying the infection with them to spread.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky openly admitted that an enormous surge in Omicron cases was taking place and that it was necessary loosen quarantine and isolation rules, which would otherwise take too many people out of the economy for too long.

“Not all of those cases are going to be severe. In fact many are going to be asymptomatic,” she told the Associated Press. “We want to make sure there is a mechanism by which we can safely continue to keep society functioning while following the science.”

The reference to “following the science” is mere pretense. As for “society functioning,” this means only one thing under capitalism: maintaining the flow of profits to the capitalist class. Public health is being subordinated to corporate profit. Science is being junked to appease the howls of American business interests over the exodus of workers under the combined impact of the spread of Omicron and the perfectly justified fears of infection from the new variant. 

The AP report, which cited Walensky’s remarks, made no effort to disguise the economic motivation, declaring, “The decision also was driven by a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant … the sheer number of people becoming infected—and therefore having to isolate or quarantine—threatens to crush the ability of hospitals, airlines and other businesses to stay open, experts say.”

The CDC action was announced amid reports of a nationwide increase in the contagion and a particularly ominous rise in infections and hospitalizations among children, who appear to be more affected by Omicron than by previous variants of COVID-19. In New York City, child COVID-19 hospitalizations have quadrupled over the past three weeks, rising from 22 to 109. Nationwide, child infections rose to 170,000 last week, a rise of 28 percent, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. 

CDC figures showed that an average of 200 children a day were being admitted to the hospital for COVID-19, while a Washington Post analysis showed a total of 1,987 pediatric COVID-19 patients hospitalized nationally, a 31 percent jump in 10 days.

The average daily number of new cases is approaching 200,000, surpassing the worst of the summer outbreak driven by the Delta variant and approaching last winter’s horrific levels when, in January 2021, 3,000 people a day were dying of COVID-19 in the United States. The daily death toll last week averaged 1,408, a rise of 17 percent over the previous week, and this still largely reflects the impact of Delta, not yet the surge in Omicron. Hospitalizations, also a lagging indicator, rose to an average of 71,000.

In New York state alone, the daily case rate has reached 50,000, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul said on Monday. Hochul appeared at a press conference with her health director Mary T. Bassett, who was masked and distanced because she herself is the victim of a breakthrough case of Omicron, despite being double-vaccinated and boosted. 

Bassett warned, “Many people continue to think that children do not become infected with COVID. This is not true. Children become infected with COVID, and some will become hospitalized.”

Local and state health officials report dramatic increases in cases and hospitalizations from coast to coast. In Los Angeles County, the most populous in the country, new coronavirus cases rose from 3,052 on Tuesday, December 21; to 6,509 on Wednesday; to 8,633 on Thursday; to 9,988 on Friday; and to 11,930 on Saturday, Christmas Day.

The state of Ohio has the highest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations, and ICUs are running out of beds, even at the Cleveland Clinic, long a national leader in medical services. Major hospitals published a joint appeal last week for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated, warning they were being inundated with new, serious infection cases, mostly among the unvaccinated.

These reports conform to the dire projection last week from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which forecast that at its present exponential rate of transmission, the Omicron variant would infect 3 billion people worldwide in the next three months, and 140 million in the United States.

In the face of this looming emergency, the US government is effectively declaring an open door to a disease that will potentially take millions of lives and have incalculable consequences on the long-term health of millions more.

Last week, the CDC lowered the isolation requirement for health care workers from 10 days to seven days for infected workers who have no symptoms and then test negative and suggested this could be cut to five days, or even less, for health facilities with severe staffing shortages—a description that applies to virtually every hospital, clinic and nursing home.

This step was ostensibly justified by health concerns, to prevent the collapse of the health care system under the impact of the pandemic. But now even looser rules are being proposed for all business operations. There is no health consideration involved in herding factory and office workers back to their jobs while still infected or contagious. Just the opposite: Public health is being sacrificed for profit interests.

Under capitalism, a “functioning society” doesn’t mean a society where all people are fed, clothed and housed, their children properly educated and other social needs met. Even American capitalism, the wealthiest in the world, can hardly claim to meet that standard. A “functioning society” means just one thing: A society in which the working class is exploited in the labor process to produce surplus value and profit for the class of capitalists.

Solomon Islands’ government invites Chinese riot police deployment

Patrick O’Connor

The Solomon Islands’ government of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare last week announced that it was accepting China’s offer of assistance in bolstering the country’s riot police capacity. In a statement last Thursday, the Sogavare government explained that it “is mindful of the urgent need to strengthen Royal Solomon Islands Police Force capability and capacity to respond to future unrest…

“The government has agreed to accept the People’s Republic of China’s offer of riot equipment and six police liaison officers to equip and train Royal Solomon Islands Police Force with the skill sets complimenting ongoing training received under existing bilateral assistance. This riot equipment that will be flown into the country includes shields, helmets, batons and other non-lethal gear that will further enhance Solomon Islands Police ability in confronting future threats.”

Burning buildings in Honiara’s Chinatown, November 25. (Photo: Twitter / @Nrg8000)

On November 24, anti-government forces attempted to storm the parliament and overthrow the government. When they were beaten back by riot police, they burned and looted much of the capital, Honiara, for three days, especially targeting Chinese-owned businesses.

The violence was the culmination of a US-backed anti-government campaign spearheaded by the premier of Malaita province, Daniel Suidani.

After the government switched the country’s diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China in 2019, Suidani declared, on anti-communist and Christian fundamentalist grounds, that he would not recognise the decision. The premier subsequently declared that Chinese nationals were barred from Malaita, and that Chinese investment and aid would not be permitted in the province. He insisted that he would maintain an independent foreign policy, and has since welcomed Taiwanese aid that has been unlawfully delivered to the island.

Washington rewarded these provocations with a delivery of $US25 million in so-called aid, as well as the promise of additional capital for infrastructure projects in Malaita. USAID officials and others with the Republican Party-connected International Republican Institute are active on the ground in Malaita, including providing political “training” to Suidani’s supporters.

Suidani and his supporters are Malaitan separatists. Washington’s support for them threatens the breakup of Solomon Islands and the reignition of the 1998–2003 civil conflict between rival Malaitan and Guale militias that had a devastating impact on the country.

US policy in the Solomons is extraordinarily reckless. It represents a case study in imperialist realpolitik —the potential consequences of a violent breakdown of a small and impoverished country count for nothing when weighed against the prospect of undermining China’s influence.

The Australian government deployed more than 100 soldiers and federal police to Solomon Islands last month, part of a regional intervention force requested by Sogavare. Last week most of the soldiers were withdrawn from the country, leaving around 15 troops and 40 federal police. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has insisted that the intervention force will last only weeks and is not a reprise of the 2003–2017 Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), the Australian-led operation that cost nearly $3 billion.

The move has triggered alarm in Australian ruling circles. Ever since World War II, Australian imperialism has regarded the South Pacific as its exclusive “sphere of influence,” despite this stance having no basis in international law.

Canberra has enjoyed US backing for its predatory operations in the region, based on the understanding that Australian forces would be primarily responsible for shutting out rival powers. Now China’s growing economic and diplomatic presence is threatening to undermine this status quo.

Several foreign policy commentators both in the US and Australia have accused Prime Minister Scott Morrison of undermining the drive against the Solomons’ government. Pressure is clearly building within the Australian foreign policy establishment for the launching of a “regime change” campaign aimed at removing Sogavare.

ABC News reporter Andrew Green reported that while the government has made little public comment on the Chinese riot police deployment, “privately officials are fuming, fearing Beijing’s security assistance could pave the way for a Chinese military presence in a fragile nation right on Australia’s doorstop.”

The Australian ran an editorial, “Beijing’s Solomon Islands Foothold,” declaring the riot police invitation “disappointing” and adding that “few would be surprised if the half-dozen Chinese officers are soon joined by others to help train local police in the riot equipment and gain influence in the country.”

The Murdoch outlet added that “Sogavare is very much Beijing’s man,” and concluded by warning: “Given its port facilities, the Solomon Islands is a strategic target for Beijing’s expansionism.”

The New Zealand foreign affairs ministry issued a statement, formally acknowledging that the Sogavare government’s acceptance of Chinese aid was a sovereign decision for the government to make. This, however, was immediately followed by the declaration that “we are not convinced a deployment of Chinese personnel is needed in the current context” and that “we are mindful of the long-standing approach of Pacific Islands Forum members in supporting each other’s security needs.”

The last time Sogavare was in office, 2006–2007, he was perceived by the Australian government as a threat to RAMSI and was subjected to a protracted destabilisation campaign. Australian officials working in Canberra and Honiara waged a series of provocations, including the illegal arrest and rendition of the country’s then attorney general, Julian Moti. There is a very real danger that a similar campaign is now being prepared in the impoverished Pacific state.

Ferry fire in Bangladesh claims 41 lives

Yuan Darwin & Pradeep Ramanayake

At least 41 people have died and over 200 were injured early on Friday after a packed three-storey ferry, the MV-Abhijan 10, caught fire on the Sugandha River about 250 kilometres south of Dhaka. In addition to those who died from burns, some drowned after jumping into water to escape the fire. Several others are reported missing. Those with bad burns are currently undergoing treatment at local hospitals.

Ferry fire survivors receive treatment at a government medical hospital in Barishal, Bangladesh, Friday, Dec. 24, 2021. (Source: AP Photo/Niamul Rifat)

The blaze reportedly broke out in the engine room around 3.00 a.m. and rapidly engulfed the ferry, which was carrying over 800 passengers from Dhaka to the town of Barguna. Many of the passengers were travelling to visit family and friends for the weekend. The disaster is being reported as the country’s worst ferry fire. The capsizing of ferries and other related water-transport accidents occur with sickening regularity in Bangladesh.

Survivors of Friday’s fire described the horrifying situation. One passenger, an elderly grandmother, told the AFP that most people had been sleeping when the fire broke out. “My nine-year-old grandson, Nayeem, was with me, he jumped into the river. I don’t know what happened to him,” she said.

Another woman, who was travelling with her father, sister and six-month-old nephew, said the young child was still missing. “When the fire broke out, I gave the baby to a man. He was trying to save the baby. But now we can’t find them,” she said.

The true extent of the disaster is not yet clear but with rescue teams still searching for the missing the death toll is likely to rise.

A case has been filed in the Barguna Chief Judicial Magistrate Court against the ferry owner Hamjalal Sheikh and 24 others in connection with the deadly fire. The owner has denied the blaze was caused by a mechanical fault, telling a local news outlet that there was an explosion on the ferry’s second storey with the subsequent fire spreading to the engine room.

However, survivors told the Daily Star that there were indications of trouble as the journey began but they were ignored. According to the newspaper, workers on the ferry noticed problems with the engine but kept the vessel going while trying to fix them.

A number of passengers said that the engine was making strange loud noises from time to time, black smoke was emanating from the engine room, and that flame flashed from the exhaust pipe on several occasions. The ferry was carrying nearly three times its approved capacity of 310.

Ferry disasters in Bangladesh have resulted in many deaths over the years and mounting public anger at the criminal negligence of government authorities over unsafe conditions in the country’s water transport system. Successive Bangladesh governments have failed to minimise the dangers associated water transport, which is cheap and widely used by workers and the poor.

A number of tragedies have already taken place this year. These include the collision in March of a speedboat travelling from Munshiganj to Madaripur with a sand-laden bulk carrier resulting in the death of at least 26 people. In April, the ML Sabit Al Hasan ferry capsized in the Shitalakkhya River in Narayanganj district killing 34.

In June 2020, 34 people died when the MV Morning Bird, which was carrying up to 60 passengers, sunk in the Buriganga River after colliding with a larger ferry, the Mayur-2.

According to Statista, a German-based data analysis company, 9,886 people have died in ferry accidents in Bangladesh between 1966 and 2017—the second highest death toll in the world and just behind the Philippines where 10,855 died during the same period.

Many of these incidents were the result of poor ferry design, inadequate maintenance, poor crew training, inadequate weather information and passenger overloading. The government authorities responsible for enforcing basic safety standards in the ferry transport system turn a blind eye to these conditions, certifying badly maintained and unsafe vessels as seaworthy. Bribery of inspectors and officials is commonplace.

The Daily Star has reported that a preliminary investigation into Friday’s disaster has revealed that the owner changed two of the ferry’s engines without getting permission from authorities. The engine room was also reportedly modified to install a larger-than-approved engine. In addition, the master and crew at the time of the incident were not authorised to operate the vessel.

“Although the two government authorities, the Department of Shipping and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), were supposed to check such illegal practices, both of them have failed to do their job,” a transport expert told the newspaper.

As in previous disasters, the government’s response has been routine and callous. President Abdul Hamid and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who were visiting the Maldives at the time, issued perfunctory statements of condolence. The prime minister’s office said she had asked officials to ensure there was appropriate treatment of the wounded and compensation for the victims.

The Bangladeshi ministry of shipping has formed a seven-member committee, which includes the police, fire service, and district administration, to investigate the fire and submit a report within 15 working days. This report, like many previous ones, will be a whitewash. At most, a few scapegoats will be arrested and punished in an attempt to dissipate public anger.

Following an inquiry into the Pinak 6 tragedy in 2014 in which more than 100 died, government authorities sacked three staff members of the BIWTA and punished four others. Nothing was done, however, about the report’s recommendations in relation to vessels’ structural and technical defects, uncertified changes in vessel design, overloading of passengers and goods, irresponsible piloting, and ignoring meteorological department advisories.

Bangladesh has the largest inland water network in the world, with about 700 rivers and tributaries. Ferry owners put passengers’ lives at risk in order to maximise their profits by violating basic safety regulations and conspiring with government authorities, which ignore the dangers, or, in the event of a public outcry, make a few cosmetic gestures.

Why Are Mental Health Problems Abnormally High and Increasing in Several Rich Countries

Bharat Dogra

It is a paradox—and a very worrying one too- that in the middle of overall high levels of prosperity  the burden of mental health problems is very high in several rich countries and appears to be increasing in some important contexts.

In the USA 1 in 4 adults suffers from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year, according to the National Institute of Mental Health Disorders. 15% of youths suffered a major depressive episode in the previous year. 11% suffered severe major depression ( that could affect normal functioning) in the previous year.

The situation is worrying in a normal year but worsened further during the pandemic. During the pandemic 4 in 10 adults recorded symptoms of anxiety and depressive disorder, up from 1 in 10 adults who reported similar symptoms in the first half of 2019. According to KFF Tracker 36% experienced difficulty in sleeping.

Among adults mental health problems were found to be the highest among young adults, affecting 56% in the 18-24 group.  26% of them had suicide thoughts, compared to 11% average for all adult age-groups.

In 2019, a typical year, according to official data, 12 million Americans thought about suicide and 1.4 million attempted suicide. Suicide ideation affects 4.6% of population in a year and has seen steady increase during the last decade.

Another aspect of mental health relates to sudden nervous breakdown. James Veroff conducted surveys on this at 20 year intervals in USA—in 1957, 1976 and 1996– regarding the likelihood of a nervous breakdown. These surveys reveal an increase after the first 20 years, and a much bigger increase in the next 20 years, regarding the percentage of people who admitted to the likelihood of a nervous breakdown.

In recent years mental health problems among adolescents and children have increased more rapidly, particularly during the last decade. According to recent research published by the American Psychological Association (APA) in 2019, analysis of responses by about 600,000 adolescents and young adults, as received under a national survey for drug use, revealed that psychological distress, major depression, suicidal thoughts and even suicide attempts increased at an exceptionally fast rate during 2005-2018. The increase was more pronounced in more recent times, 2012-2018.

The results of this study were published in a paper published in the Journal of Abnormal Psychology in a paper authored by Dr. Jean Twenge and co-authors. This paper mentions increases in the range of 47 to 71 per cent in these various mental health problems during a few years of this period. Serious sleep related problems were also noted.

Only about half of those suffering from mental health disorders are able to get treatment. Those suffering from mental health  are involved in nearly two million visits to prison in a year. 66% of women prisoners have a history of mental health disorders.

The USA is by no means the only high income country to suffer from high levels of mental health problems. According to WHO data for Europe for 2020, nearly 25% population suffers from depression or anxiety. 50% of chronic sick leave is taken for these problems. Treatment is available only for about 50% of those suffering from mental health disorders. As in the USA, the high and increasing rates of mental health problems among children and adolescents are a cause of special concern.

In Australia studies for the year 1997 and 2001 reveal a huge two-thirds increase in percentage of people affected by major psychological distress. The increase was even higher among women. This increase within a very short period has been linked to various policy changes made during this period, one of those rare cases where such linkages could be established due to the availability of comparable data from surveys in both years.

The survey in the case of APA study quoted above had placed much more emphasis on cultural factors and big spurt of digital media during 2012-18 as the main explanatory factor. While this is useful , it is important also to look at a much broader range of issues including family and community relationships, work environment and job related pressures, debts, economic pressures, uncertainty regarding fulfilment of basic needs, inequalities, consumerist trends and pressures to keep up with the Joneses.

Clearly there are several short-term and longer-term factors which lead to high levels of mental distress. There is an urgent need not just for short-term  specific responses but also wider  policy reform, with a more comprehensive approach, which can significantly reduce various causes of increasing mental stress.

Christmas arrives in Saudi Arabia

James M. Dorsey

Long banned, Christmas has finally, at least tacitly, arrived in Saudi Arabia; just don’t use the name in marketing or be ostentatious about your tree.

Coffeeshops serving beverages in red cups with snowflakes on them are ok. So is the sale of soap bars named ‘Tis the Season and Vanilla Bean Noel.

Christmas trees that sell at up to US$3,000 a piece are slightly more complicated. The religious police no longer harass shopkeepers for selling items that reference a non-Muslim holiday. But shopkeepers remain uncertain about trees and sometimes still keep them in a backroom. Religious references and carols remain beyond the pale.

The loosening of the rules of the game in a country that still bans non-Muslim worship in public and the building of non-Muslim houses of worship is part of an effort to ensure that the kingdom does not lag in the competition with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to project itself as an enlightened, modern country that can attract foreign investment and vie for foreign talent and tourists.

The loosening is also part of an effort to position the kingdom as a beacon of Muslim moderation in competition with the UAE, Qatar, and Indonesia.

While Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country and democracy, is struggling with creeping conservatism, and Qatar is seeking to ensure football fans that it will welcome diversity of any kind during next year’s World Cup, the UAE has sprinted ahead by leaps and bounds.

In the last year, the UAE, where public references to Christmas and carols are not an issue and non-Muslim houses of worship exist alongside mosques, far-reaching legal reforms have been enacted that legalized alcohol and non-married cohabitation and this week ended censorship of cinematic releases. The caveat, like elsewhere in most of the Muslim world, is that the reforms are anchored in secular, not in Islamic law and jurisprudence.

Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Muslim civil society organization, that is at the forefront of the projection of Indonesian moderation has started a process of reform of Muslim jurisprudence but has so far shied away from hot button issues that top the agenda of its Middle Eastern rivals.

Saudi loosening of norms also serves to distinguish the kingdom from other competitors for religious soft power and leadership of the Muslim world like Turkey and Iran that are governed by Islamists who either are inspired by or more strictly apply conservative interpretations of Islamic law. The loosening further aims to bolster economic reforms and efforts to diversify the economy and create jobs.

To be sure, Saudi Arabia has been signaling for several years that it is travelling down a road of greater religious tolerance and social liberalisation. Meetings between Saudi leaders and Evangelical and Jewish leaders and support for inter-faith dialogue served the purpose.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has turned the Muslim World League, once a major vehicle for the global propagation of Wahhabism, the ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam that dominated Saudi Arabia for its first 85 years, into the propagator of his vaguely defined concept of moderate Islam.

Mr. Bin Salman has also lifted the ban on women’s driving, liberalised gender segregation, created greater job and leisure opportunities for women, and generated a Western-style entertainment industry. But, like the UAE and Qatar, he has stopped short of fully abolishing male guardianship.

Saudi shops started catering several years ago to Valentine’s Day, long a no-go in the kingdom, by selling red roses, and in October Halloween costumes appeared for the first time in shop windows.

However, increasingly, same-sex relationships are emerging as a red line in Gulf social liberalization.

The kingdom’s top cleric, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz bin Abdullah Al-Sheikh, came out swinging this week in a fatwa or religious opinion that denounced same-sex relationships. He appeared to be responding to a United Nations General Assembly resolution adopted earlier this month that called for recognition of “women in all their diversity”, including “gender identity” and “sexual orientation.”

In what amounted to rare public, albeit implicit, clerical criticism of Mr. Bin Salman’s liberalisations, Mr. Al-Sheikh also appeared to be reacting to a major electronic dance festival, the Middle Beast Soundstorm, held near Riyadh in recent days and reportedly attended by 732,000 people.

Some reports suggested that some attendees had been publicly intoxicated and had displayed behaviour that raised suspicions that they were queers.

The kingdom punishes homosexuality by death.

Mr. Al-Sheikh, a descendant of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, the founder of Wahhabism,  described homosexuality as among the “most heinous and ugliest crimes.”

He asserted that “human rights…find first and foremost position in God’s law and warned that “the whole world is afflicted with outrageous boldness, false claims, and despicable perversion, which is intended to strip man of his humanity!”

Mr. Al-Sheikh appeared to be drawing a red line for social reform on an issue that was likely to enjoy public support.

A recent public opinion poll concluded that 67 per cent of the people applauded the kingdom’s rejection of the UN resolution while 33 per cent said they did not have an opinion.

Scholar Matthew Hedges, who was arrested in the Emirates and sentenced to life in prison on charges of espionage while researching a just published book, noted that countering ‘immoral’ sexual conduct is one way Emirati authorities appeal to the public’s cultural sensitivities to justify the construction of a surveillance state.

Mr. Al-Sheikh’s fatwa contrasts starkly with efforts by Qatari officials to downplay criticism of the Gulf state’s anti-same sex laws and reassure LGBTQ fans that they would be welcome during next year’s World Cup and would even be allowed to fly the rainbow flag at games. LGBTQ Qataris insist that the same tolerance is not extended to them.

For Saudis, Mr. Al-Sheikh’s fatwa contains a cautionary note. Saudi Arabia may have enacted significant social liberalisations but beyond red lines they rest on a fragile fundament as long as they are not anchored in changes of religious doctrine and jurisprudence.

“While the changes (in Saudi Arabia) are potentially far-reaching, their ultimate direction is uncertain. Most…remain quite reversible. And while state structures and officials have accepted and even applauded the moves, some social resentment and resistance is still possible—and unintended consequences might still materialize,” warned scholars Yasmine Farouk and Nathan J. Brown.

Japanese Government MEXT Scholarships 2022

Application Deadline: 4th February 2022

Eligible Countries: International

To be taken at (country): Japan

About the Award: The Embassy of Japan is pleased to inform you that the Government of Japan will provide scholarship for Primary/Secondary school teachers who desire to take teacher training course and Japanese language training in Japan.

The scholarship is open to graduates of universities and teachers training colleges no more than thirty-four (34) years of age who have worked as teachers at primary/secondary schools or teacher training college for at least five years in their home countries at the time of application.

Beneficiaries shall upon their return, help to promote Japanese Language education in Nigeria.

Type: Training

Eligibility: 

(1) Nationality: Applicants must have the nationality of a country that has diplomatic relations with Japanese government. An applicant who has Japanese nationality at the time of application is not eligible. However, persons with dual nationality who hold Japanese nationality and whose place of residence at the time of application is outside of Japan are eligible to apply as long as they give up their Japanese nationality and choose the nationality of the foreign country by the date of their arrival in Japan. Applicant screening will be conducted at the Japanese Embassy or Consulate (hereinafter referred to “Japanese diplomatic mission”)in the country of applicant’s nationality.

(2)　Age: Applicants, in principle, must be born on or after April 2, 1988.

(3)　Academic and Career Background: Applicants must be graduates of universities or teacher training schools and have worked as teachers at primary/secondary educational institutions or teacher training schools (excluding universities)in their home countries for five years in total as of April 1, 2020. In-service university faculty members are not eligible.

(4)　Japanese Language Ability: Applicants must be keen to learn Japanese. Applicants must be interested in Japan and be keen to deepen their understanding of Japan after arriving in Japan. Applicants must also have the ability to do research and adapt to living in Japan.

(5)　Health: Applicants must be judged that they are medically adequate to pursue study in Japan by an examining physician on a prescribed certificate of health.

(6)　Arrival in Japan: Applicants must be able to arrive in Japan by the designated period(usually October) between the day two weeks before the course starts and the first day of the course. (If the applicant arrives in Japan before this period for personal reasons, travel expenses to Japan will not be paid. Excluding cases of unavoidable circumstances, if the applicant cannot arrive in Japan by the end of the designated period the applicant must withdraw the offer.)

(7)　Visa acquisition: Applicants should in principle acquire “Student” visas before entering Japan and enter Japan with “Student” residence status. The visas should be issued at the Japanese diplomatic missions located in the country of applicants’ nationality. Those who change their visa status to one other than “Student” after arrival in Japan will lose their qualification to be Japanese Government Scholarship recipients from the date when their visa status changes.

(8)　Applicants must return to their home country and resume their work immediately after the end of the scholarship period.

Number of Awardees: Not specified

Value of Scholarship:

• Allowance：143,000 yen per month. (In case that the recipient researches in a designated region, 2,000 or 3,000 yen per month will be added. The monetary amount each year may be subject to change due to budgetary reasons.)
• Transportation to Japan: The recipient will be provided an economy-class airplane ticket, according to his/her itinerary and route as designated by MEXT, from the international airport nearest to his/her home country residence, where in principle is in the country of nationality, to the Narita International Airport or any other international airport that the appointed university usually uses when they enter to Japan.
• Expenses such as inland transportation from his/her home address to the international airport, airport tax, airport usage fees, special taxes on travel, or inland transportation within Japan including a connecting flight will NOT be covered. (*Although the address in the home country stated in the application form is in principle regarded as the recipient’s “home country residence,” if it will be changed at the time of leaving from his/her home country the changed address will be regarded as “home country residence.”)
• Transportation from Japan: The recipient who returns to his/her home country within the fixed period after the expiration of his/her scholarship will be provided, upon application, with an economy-class airplane ticket for travel from the Narita International Airport or any other international airport that the appointed university usually uses to the international airport nearest to his/her home address, wherein principle is in the country of nationality.
  • (Note 1) Any aviation and accident insurance to and from Japan shall be borne by the recipient.
  • (Note 2) Should the recipient not return to his/her home country soon after the end of the scholarship period to resume his/her duties, the transportation fee for the return to the home country will not be provided.
• Tuition and Other Fees: Fees for the entrance examination, matriculation and tuition at universities will be paid by the Japanese Government.

Duration of Scholarship: The term is the period necessary to complete each university’s training course and should be between October 2022 (or the starting month of the course) and March 2024. Extension of the term is not permitted

How to Apply: 

• Applicants must submit all required documents to the Japanese diplomatic mission in the applicant’s country. The submitted documents will not be returned.

Visit Scholarship Webpage for details

Important Notes: 

• (1)The recipient is advised to learn, before departing for Japan, the Japanese language and to acquire some information about Japanese weather, climate, customs, and university education in Japan, as well as about the difference between the Japanese legal system and that of his/her home country.
• (2)As the first installment of the scholarship payment cannot be provided immediately upon the recipient’s arrival, the recipient should bring at least approximately US $2,000 or the equivalent thereof to cover immediate needs after arrival in Japan.

Climate Change Brings Health Risks

Cesar Chelala

Much attention has been devoted in recent times to the environmental and economic effects of climate change. Much less attention, however, has been given to the possible effects of climate change, particularly global warming, on the health of the populations, particularly those from the poorest countries. This is a trend that requires prompt attention if the negative effects of climate change on health are to be avoided or minimized. According to some estimates, at least 1 in 6 people worldwide will suffer the consequences of climate change.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that global warming and rainfall changes cause the loss of at least 150,000 lives every year. This figure could increase significantly if current trends of climate change continue. The WHO also states that the risk of death and disease from climate change will at least double in the next 20 years. Paradoxically, the countries that have least contributed to global warming are the most vulnerable to its negative consequences.

Global warming can affect the health of populations both directly and indirectly. Direct effects can result from heat-related deaths or weather-caused disasters such as hurricanes and drought-related wildfires. Indirect effects can result from alterations in complex ecological processes such as changes in the patterns of infectious diseases, in the quantity and quality of domestic food production, and altered potable water supplies. Experts predict that receding waters in the Ganges River could affect the lives of 400 million people.

Climate change could also alter the geographic distribution of disease vectors and thus alter the epidemiology of vectors-transmitted diseases. Some diseases such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and encephalitis, which are spread by insects, are sensitive to climate, since mosquitoes thrive in warmer climates. Other diseases, like cholera, are closely linked to the quality of potable water supplies, which can be seriously eroded by increasing rains, resulting in flooding and contamination by microorganisms.

Climate change will seriously affect food production, since many cereal crops can be affected by higher temperatures. This will have an effect not only on the amounts of food available but also on the economies of the countries affected.

Crop failures will provoke a higher death toll in poor countries, particularly among children, as a result of malnutrition. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that almost 800 million people in developing countries do not currently have enough to eat, a figure that is bound to increase substantially as a result of climate change.

In addition, prolonged heat waves will likely increase deaths from heart disease, since the cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool. Because the elderly and the sick are more susceptible to the effects of extreme changes in temperature, heat waves will also pose health risks to those populations. Warmer weather may also provoke increases in ground-level ozone, which will increase the frequency of respiratory diseases by damaging lung tissue and sensitizing the respiratory tract to other irritants.

Increased global warming could exacerbate the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, increase the number of environmental refugees fleeing from weather-related disasters, and augment the risk of disease migration and epidemics. While the range of health consequences is wide and their magnitude difficult to predict, children are among the most vulnerable to these changes. Since children constitute almost half of the population in many developing countries, such problems assume even greater significance.

Although human populations vary widely in their vulnerability to climatic change, one may reasonably predict that those particularly affected will be the poor and marginal populations that have less easy access to adequate health services to respond to emergencies. In this regard, climate change will exacerbate the disparities between the rich and the poor throughout the world. Not only will the poor in developing countries be affected, however, but even the poor in industrialized societies.

To respond to the challenges of climate change, however, requires more than resources and technology. What is necessary is increased education, advocacy and the creation of legal frameworks to allow the people and governments better-informed and sustainable policy decisions. It is also important to develop risk-communication strategies.

To avoid many of the health impacts of climate change it is important to strengthen public-health programs so that they can monitor and treat the spread of infectious diseases, and respond more effectively to health emergencies as they appear. Climate change is a most serious health risk. We will ignore its consequences on the health of the populations at our own risk.