The Imploding Middle East, Saudi Kingdom And Pakistan

Haris Khurshid

In latest turn of the events in Middle East now Pakistan is at crossroads to get embroiled in a distant conflict involving its Muslim benefactor Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or extricate itself from an avoidable war looming on the horizon of Yemen. The region is experiencing new wave of violence and disintegration in less stable parts mainly drawn by Shia Sunni sectarian and ethnic prejudice.

This is no secret that after popular spring offensive and US second invasion of Iraq the Sunni-Shia divide has deepened in the Arab world not only fermenting deep distrust between two sects of Islam who have shared common habitat for centuries but also brought traditional rivals Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran close to a covert proxy war in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and now in Yemen. For Iran, American withdrawal from Iraq was a new breather as a post-Saddam Shia dispensation in Baghdad was ideologically more closer to it than any other neighbor. Subsequent biased policies of Iraqi prime minister Noor-Kamal Al Maliki sanctioned unwarranted influence to Tehran in policy making and allowing it to exercise clout well beyond its borders. Besides, marginalization of Sunni population brewed anger and created disparity which ultimately ended into re-organization of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) cashing on desperate youth which was deprived of development and mainstreaming.

Further civil war in Syria was complicated as external influence was at the core of conflict where moderate and secular rebel forces like Free Syrian Army (FSA) were backed by US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and western as well as gulf allies while Iran and Hezbollah openly supported Assad regime militarily. The callousness increased further when rebel forces like FSA were downgraded by addition of more religious extremist groups to the equation i.e. Al Nusra Front and ISIS or ISIL. Inspired from Al-Qaida’s ideology, this new breed of Jihadis was more orthodox and fanatic than its predecessors adding new sectarian dimension to the conflict. Then came the phenomenal rise of ISIS in the summer of 2014 after capturing Syrian city of Raqqa and then pushing back Iraqi security forces to take over Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city.

There onward Iran directly intervened at the behest of Baghdad government to help organize shattered Iraqi army against Islamic state threat with the help of Al Quds force, the external arm of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the command of General Qasem Soleimani. The Iranians exploited widespread barbaric anti-Shia reputation of Islamic State as precursor to align host of extremist Shia militias and groups of volunteers purely on sectarian basis against it.

Later this month, the counter offensive of these militias alongside Iraqi Army and air cover of US bombers against IS and local Sunni population in Baghdadi and Tikrit has been widely reported as brutal in fashion as is the hallmark of IS. Meanwhile, Iran was engaging P5+1 group in resolving its longstanding diplomatic backlog concerning its nuclear program which over the years have not only inflicted heavy dent to its economy but also bestowed pariah status on it. United States, the erstwhile opponent of Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions is leading the course to decrease opaqueness of its nuclear program while ensuring it is meant for peaceful purposes. Though both sides have not reached to the climax yet, even the practice of engaging Iran has irked its regional antagonists Israel and Saudi Arabia and both have publically expressed their resentment with the United States. Besides, in a possible agreement with western negotiators over its nuclear program, Iran will be successful to reap the dividends followed by easing of harsh economic sanctions tailored by US since last two decades hence giving it further room to assert more confidently.

In a dramatic escalation of events over the last years, Iranian position in the Middle East has strengthened as it now exercises considerable control in Beirut through Hezbollah, keeping proxies or direct presence in Baghdad and supporting beleaguered Assad regime in Damascus through Al-Quds force and Hezbollah which now holds firm ground against divided rebellion.

Saudi Arabia was occupied to stem chaos in the north where it supported Bahrain’s ruling family against rebellious Iran-backed majority Shia population struggling to overthrow Sunni monarchy, lending hand to post Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and securing 900 km border with Iraq through multilayer fencing against possible Islamic State’s incursion.

Here comes the final breaking point for Kingdom to react proactively to new geostrategic dynamics when looming civil war in its backyard threatened its own territory in the south. Now it is Yemen, the most poorest in the Arab fraternity marred by pervasive political instability, mix of inter-tribal, ethnic, sectarian rivalries and home to most violent branch of transnational Jihadists, Al Qaida in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and also local affiliates of ISIS. The Arab spring has plunged Yemen into chaos when swelling protests in capital forced President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign in November 2011 after 33 years of rule. The new Sunni president Abdul Rabbuh Mansur Hadi was elected in February 2012 as president of the Yemen. However unlike his wily predecessor, the new president was weak who faced multifaceted challenges i.e. fighting AQAP, Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Iran backed Shia Zaidis also known as “Houthis” mounting rebellion against central government in the north.

As the US with support of Sana’s government was at the forefront of fight against Al Qaida through relentless drone campaign targeting its key leaders like Anwar al Awlaki, inept government was ravaged by diverse and violent political forces further weakening the central authority. Among the dissidents was ferocious faction of Houthis which was named after Shia cleric Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi who previously led uprising against Yemeni government in 2004 in Sa’dah governorate.

This time the Houthis were supported by ex-president Saleh and most notably Iran. Their rise to prominence was not surprising as they were making inroads to the political center stage soon after Saleh’s departure through violent clashes with government friendly tribes. In last year August they staged series of demonstrations against increase in fuel prices and later took control of the capital forcing Prime Minister Muhammad Basindawa to resign. In the beginning of this year the group stepped up campaign and attacked presidential palace eventually leading to government seizure by Houthis and dissolution of the parliament. The raging conflict at the doorstep mainly fueled by its ideological adversary rattled the Saudi government and prompted tough military response.

The southern oil rich region of Saudi Arabia bordering Yemen is inhabited by dissident Shia minority roughly 15% of its population. To pre-empt possible spillover of Shia influence from Houthis and Iranian proxies The Kingdom has launched operation “Decisive Storm” with its Sunni allies i.e. Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan Sudan, Morocco, and Kuwait. Endorsed by US, the Saudis have employed 100 fighter jets and amassed 150,000 troops to launch strikes against Houthis across the border.

News is that the custodian of two holy mosques has in principal asked Pakistan to join force against Houthis rebels. While Pakistan Army is stretched in its own war against local Taliban insurgency and other transnational terrorist groups besides guarding eastern border against venomous arch rival in the east, the government has pledged to “defend” its Arab friend. Pakistani leaders will have to consider ground realities before making any move of joining gulf coalition which is born of their local geopolitical intricacies as well as sectarian prejudice.

Pakistan cannot afford all out involvement in a distant war which may disturb its own delicate sectarian balance as well as relation with immediate neighbor in the south. Though sending military advisors or providing Air support capabilities may be on the cards to oblige the Kingdom but fate of more than two thousand Pakistanis living at the mercy of Houthis must be kept in mind.