A US – Iran War

Arshad M Khan

There are two kinds of people:  those with, and without, grace.  President Trump can decide on which side he falls, although Mrs. Abe the Japanese Prime Minister’s wife has clearly made up her mind.  Anyone who can read a whole speech in English knows enough to say, ‘Excuse me, I do not speak English well’.  So, to not respond at all to the U.S. president sitting beside her, who turns to converse, conveys a distinct meaning.

There was a time when countries prided themselves on their civility and their citizenry for their courtesy.  Now the byword is the put down; rudeness, crudeness and vulgarity rule the day — not to forget the jingoism, demagoguery and xenophobia that can win elections.  If such was the state of a democracy, its founders, were they alive, would weep.

In the past week, U.S. presidential ire has been directed at Iran.  Shortly after the administration’s annual declaration to Congress certifying Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, it slapped additional economic sanctions the following Tuesday (July 18).  Three days later, Trump added threats of ‘new and serious consequences’ unless detained U.S. citizens are returned.  Robert Levinson, a former law enforcement officer disappeared ten years ago in Iran.  In addition, Xiyue Wang, a Chinese-born U.S. citizen, as well as a father and son Iranian-Americans, Baquer and Siamak Namazi — the elder a former provincial governor in Iran — have been sentenced to 10 years jail for spying.  For perspective, it is worth noting that 5 million tourists visit Iran annually contributing $2 billion in revenue, and the country is trying to expand its tourism industry.

The nuclear agreement itself is difficult for the U.S. to abrogate unilaterally as it involves the five permanent veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council plus Germany.  Yet Trump appears to have swallowed the Netanyahu line on the deal.  Add that to Trump’s new found chumminess with the Saudis and their deep Wahhabi antagonism towards Shia Iran and we could be on the edge of another cataclysm in the Middle East, this time enveloping the whole region.

If we recall the history of the deal,  the Obama regime first had to give up their zero-enrichment requirement before the Iranians would even agree to talk.  They got low enrichment.

While sanctions had hurt Iran, it refused to buckle under the pressure; in fact it added centrifuges and speeded up enrichment.  Had the Obama administration continued on this course, they would have had a nuclear Iran or war.

There are those in Washington who still believe sanctions and pressure would bring Iran to its knees.  They have forgotten the Iranian response to Iraq and the Iran-Iraq war when Iran stood up to a better-armed Iraq despite enormous casualties.

If Trump keeps up the pressure imposing further sanctions, how soon before the extremists in Iran secure an upper hand and the deal falls apart?  Could an unwinnable war (Iraq and Afghanistan are living examples) and/or a nuclear Iran be the consequence?