Japanese Prime Minister Shinjo Abe visited Yasukuni
shrine on 26 December last year and the visit invited
usual condemnations from China and South Korea. The
US also reacted by saying it ‘disappointing’ and would
lead to ‘exacerbate tensions’ in the region. However,
Japanese posturing has been relentless and on the New
Year day, Japanese Internal Affairs Minister Yoshitaka
Shindo had another visit to the shrine. The tension and
mistrust in East Asia has been escalating in recent years
and Japan, China and North Korea have shown
uncompromising intent to compete rather than concede
and cooperate on the issues of mutual disagreements.
China has recently declared its Air Defense Identification
Zone (ADIZ) unilaterally, which goes beyond its contest
in East China Sea with Japan over Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands. North Korea is also going through domestic
power struggle and restructuring of equations with its
closest ally China. In this problematic interstate
relations in the region, the Japanese right-wing
assertions in domestic politics and its impact on foreign
policy has further complicated the security calculus of
the region.
The East Asian region is closely connected in economic,
educational and cultural spheres but there is a huge
trust deficit in security arena and it poses a grave
challenge for further economic exchanges and
integration of the region. There are assurances that the
tension among these countries would not move beyond
a certain limit as economic interdependent would bring
in moderation in their behaviours. However, the
argument may not sustainable beyond a point. If the
escalation of tension among these countries could not
be checked, it may derail and disrupt their cooperation
in every field.
The role of the US is considered to be important as it
has leverage to pacify Japan and constructively engage
China to make the region more stable. The US could
also convey China to contain North Korean provocative
behaviour as well as sock-observe any instability in
North Korea. Washington has been trying to reach out
Beijing through its diplomatic channel but there is no
indication that it has been equally keen in pacifying
Japan. The Japanese aggressive posturing, even if not
openly appreciated by the US, has been granted silent
consent by the US and it is quite unsettling for not only
China but also South Korea. Japan has been cleverly
silenced Washington by remaining fully committed to
the US alliance and its interests in the regional politics.
For example, the day after the Prime Minister Abe’s visit
to Yasukuni, Okinawa governor agreed to relocate the
US military base at Futenma to near by Henoko. It was
characterised as ‘critical milestone’ by the US Secretary
of Defense Chuck Hagel. It appears that the US is more
interested in its narrow national interests in the region
and it does not have any serious objection with
Japanese aggressive posturing. Probably, the US thinks
that an assertive Japan would be a buffer against the
rise of Chinese influence in the region. Many scholars
relate American concession to Japan with its strategy of
‘Asian pivot’. There are also speculations that probably
the US does not have enough diplomatic leverage over
Japan to stop its aggressive posturing and so it has
decided to go along with Japanese plan of things rather
than dictating its own terms.
Whatever be the reason, the complacency on the part of
the US would definitely make it difficult for Washington
have any credible and consequential engagement with
China. China would not be satisfied by the use of words
like ‘disappointment’ and it would definitely chart out its
own course of actions, which might be detrimental for
the regional security environment. The Chinese
announcement to have its own ADIZ could be better
understood in the light of above dynamics. Furthermore,
the US conceding and accommodative behaviour vis-à-
vis Japan poses a difficult question to South Korea,
which is equally close ally of the US in the region. Even
though, South Korea enjoys security guarantee from the
US, it has to rethink about its own security equations in
the neighbourhood. South Korea is challenged by a
belligerent and ‘unpredictable’ North Korea as well as
an aggressive and uncompromising Japan. Seoul tried
to forge a cooperative relationship with China in variety
of areas when South Korean President Park Geun-hye
visited Beijing in mid-2013. Although, it does not mean
that South Korea would abandon its old ally- the US, in
near future but continuous Japanese aggressive
posturing and insufficient American attempt to prohibit
it, may force it to review its relations with the US.
Thus, the East Asian region is at a crossroad and a
vicious cycle of threatening and uncompromising
behaviours have been posing huge risk of conflict. No
single country could be blamed for present escalations
and there have been chains of actions and reactions. It
would be pertinent to see how soon all the stakeholders
realise that the process must be stopped collectively or
it may lead to a point of no return
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