ISIL GAIN MORE FOLLOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-EAST

Night Watch 


China-Vietnam: Today Vietnamese press
reported that Beijing announced it was
towing a second drilling rig into the South
China Sea.
According to a statement posted on the
website of China's Maritime Safety
Administration, the rig will be towed between
18 and 20 June and is currently 104 nautical
miles northeast of Da Nang and 60 nautical
miles from China's Hainan Island.
Yesterday, China's State Councilor Yang Jiechi
arrived in Hanoi on Wednesday to engage in
talks with Vietnam's top leaders -- Party Chief
Nguyen Phu Trong, Prime Minister Nguyen
Tan Dung, and Deputy PM and Foreign
Minister Pham Binh Minh -- about the oil rig
issue.
Comment: It is unclear whether Chinese
actions and announcements are
uncoordinated or deliberately calculated to
provoke the Southeast Asian leaders. Either
way, the Chinese leaders do not seem to care.
They send diplomats, but they have no
authority to negotiate issues of sovereignty or
to commit China to any policy or practice
inconsistent with its claims of sovereignty.
Their task is to persuade the Southeast Asians
to accept the Chinese position and to warn
against violent escalation.
Iraq: The status of the Baiji refinery remains
unclear. Eyewitnesses told the press that they
saw black militant flags flying over the
refinery at Baiji. An Iraqi general said the
government force protecting the refinery was
still inside Thursday and that the force was in
regular contact with Baghdad. The refinery's
workers had been evacuated to nearby
villages, he said.
Helicopter gunships flew over the refinery to
stop any militant advance, the general said.
The ultra-extremists reportedly took over a
building just outside the refinery and were
using it to fire at the government forces.
Samarra. Fighting continues for control of
Samarra, which is the site of the Shiite shrine
to Imam Ali al-Hadi and to his son Imam al-
Askari. Police reported that Sunni militants
fired rocket or mortar rounds towards the
shrine complex, injuring 14 people. The
shrine is undamaged.
Comment: Control of Samarra has important
bearing on outside intervention by Iran and
Lebanese Hizballah because of the Shiite
shrine. Sunni militants damaged the mosque
in February 2006 and in June and July 2007.
That led to sectarian vengeance killings in
which thousands died.
Baghdad. Officials reported more instances of
sectarian murder.
Police and morgue officials said the bodies of
four men were discovered in the Shiite
Baghdad district of Abu Dashir on Thursday.
The bodies were handcuffed and had gunshot
wounds to the head and chest. The officials
presumed they were Sunnis.
A roadside bomb hit a police patrol on a
highway in the east of Baghdad, killing two
police officers and wounding two. A car bomb
also exploded inside a parking lot in
Baghdad's southeastern Shiite neighborhood
of New Baghdad, killing three people and
wounding seven.
Politics. Al-Maliki rejected a US request that
he step down because he was re-elected in
the April elections. His party is entitled to
form a government. He accused the US of
meddling in Iraqi internal affairs.
Comment: There are no reports of ISIL
movements into Baghdad.
Ripple Effects from Iraq
Syria: Tribal leaders in Aleppo said today that
they would ally with ISIL and obey the
group's orders, following a meeting with ISIL
leaders. At the meeting, ISIL's spokesmen
talked about their future plans, calling ISIL a
global association.
Other subjects included the increase in ISIL's
support among Iraqis and providing aid to
civilians. ISIL also called on the leaders of the
Elbu Hamis, Beni Said, el-Avan and el-Ganim
tribes to respect and apply Sharia law. In a
joint statement after the meeting, tribal
leaders said they would help ISIL fight to
establish a new Islamic state across Iraq and
Syria.
Comment: Since Syrian government forces
and Hizballah militiamen control much of
Aleppo, this statement looks mostly like a
propaganda ploy. Two points, however, are
worth noting. First is ISIL's claim that it now
is a global association. That calls to mind al
Qaida, as an association or company.
The second point is that pro-militant
propaganda increasingly focuses on erasing
the national boundaries set by the colonial
powers in 1916. That idea is becoming
popular among Arabs.
Lebanon: Hizballah will fight in Iraq. Hasan
Nasrallah, the secretary general of the
Lebanese Hizballah, threatened that his party
would not hesitate to take part in the ongoing
fighting in Iraq if a need arises there. Hasan
Nasrallah told the press that Hizballah is
willing to sacrifice five times as much as it
sacrificed in Syria in order to protect the
holy shrines in Iraq.
Comment: Lebanese Hizballah sent fighters to
Iraq in the mid-2000's to support Shiites
fighting against the Sunni rebels. Nasrallah's
threats are not idle.
ISIL shows no signs of moving against
Baghdad, much less the Karbala and Najaf
south of Baghdad. An ISIL attack at Samarra,
however, 78 miles north of Baghdad, might
test Nasrallah's commitment again.
Egypt: Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Supporters of
the Holy House) posted a statement on the
Web that it will attack Americans in Egypt if
the US attacks ISIL in Iraq.
Comment : Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis is an
Egyptian terrorist group that is responsible
for many of the attacks against Egyptian
forces and interests in Sinai during the past
three years. Since the overthrow of the Mursi
regime, it has become more active and
bolder, attacking outside Sinai. It claimed
responsibility for a bombing attack In Cairo
in January. It is reported to have support
from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.
An increased threat to American citizens
abroad is one of the predictable ripple effects
of US intervention in the Iraq crisis.
Ukraine: Politics. Today, Ukrainian President
Poroshenko said he would sign an association
agreement with the European Union (EU) on
27 June.
Petroshenko also spoke by telephone with
Russian President Putin today. The Ukrainian
presidential website claims Petroshenko was
firm in demanding and expected Russian
support for his peace plan.
Comment: The Russian version of the talk was
slightly different. Putin stressed that
Ukrainian security operations must stop
immediately. Neither side mentioned whether
they discussed the EU association agreement.
Differences over Ukraine's association with
the EU started the crisis and led to Crimean
secession. Russian leaders do not appear to
have softened their opposition to a pro-
Western Ukraine.
Security. Ukrainian forces continued
operations and claimed to have killed
hundreds of separatists in an armored attack.
No ceasefire exists. Separatists renewed their
plea for Russian assistance. NATO sources
reported another build-up of Russian forces
near the border of eastern Ukraine.
The militiamen of the Donetsk People's
Republic claimed they shot down a Ukrainian
Su-25 ground support aircraft during a battle
for the village of Yampil, north of Donetsk
Region.
Comment: If the aircraft shoot down claim is
confirmed, it would suggest the militiamen
are using more sophisticated air defense
missiles. They might become capable of
degrading Ukraine's air superiority.