The statements issued by Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe and US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel at
the Shangri La Dialogue show the renewal of tension in
the Asia-Pacific with the rise of China. The US remarks
were a follow-up to Abe’s criticism against China’s
assertiveness in the region with a special focus on the
South China Sea dispute.
What are the expectations that the US and Japan have
in the region and what do they expect from China?
Where is the region heading towards?
Deciphering the Statements
The statements at the Dialogue revolved around
resolving the South China Sea dispute, Chinese
assertiveness in the region, strengthening allies and
partners in the region, and enhancing ASEAN’s defence
capabilities and posture. It was mostly directed against
recent Chinese activities. The Chinese responded to the
allegations as being untruthful and a malicious attempt
that aimed at tarnishing its reputation in the
international system.
Shinzo Abe stated that Japan will play a proactive role
in Asia and in the world, under the new banner,
“Proactive Contribution to Peace.” It is likely to signify
that Japan is resorting to a Cold War stance or that its
role has been undermined in recent times. He also
extended his support to the ASEAN countries, and
advised them to act wisely and follow international rules
to settle the South China Sea dispute. He indirectly
criticised China for strengthening its military and using
coercion to settle the dispute, which is against the rule
of law. The repetition of the phrase ‘rule of law’ is likely
to strengthen his assertion that China is unwilling to
settle the dispute through international law and is
resorting to force or coercion.
Japan has resorted to alliance-making with the ASEAN
and other countries in the region to their defence
posture in the Asia-Pacific. This is so that the ASEAN
will not be undermined by China and can prevent the
use of force by the same in the future. Japan wants the
ASEAN to be proactive and effectively utilise the East
Asia Summit to check military expansion in the region
and be transparent on their military budget so that
misconception can be averted.
Hagel pointed out several security priorities: settling
disputes through peaceful means, following international
rules, and strengtheningthe defence capabilities of the
allies that were directly criticising China’s recent
provocative behavior in the region. He mentioned that
countries in Asia-Pacific are working with the US to
sustain a rule-based order that has been followed since
the end of World War II, suggesting perhaps that the US
rule-based order has been undermined with the growing
assertion of China. He reaffirmed that the US would
increase its military engagement in the region than ever
before and strengthen its allies and partners because
the Asia-Pacific will play a crucial role in the 21st
century.
Hagel also mentioned that if China wants to play a
significant role in the region it has to use coercion
against North Korea’s destabilising provocation; this
would be in its own interest and also help regional
stability. This would be preferable to coercion being
against neighbours and neglecting that the South China
Sea is “a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.” The
US believes that with the growing significance of the
ASEAN forum, it is essential that each country work
together to achieve greater cohesion and prevent
countries like China from taking advantage of them.
Where is the Region Heading?
Chinese assertiveness in the region has brought back
the US and Japan to play a proactive role. Hagel
revisited General George Marshall’s words that “the
strength of a nation does not depend alone on its
armies, ships and planes…[but] is also measured by…
the strength of its friends and [its] allies.” It is likely
that the US is resorting to a Cold War strategy by
creating alliances and partners to strengthen its
presence in the region. The US and Japan acknowledged
that strengthening the ASEAN security community can
be effectively used to counter the growing Chinese
aggression in the region. However, due to the lack of
consensus on the South China Sea dispute between the
ASEAN countries, it is unclear whether they will be able
cooperate with the US and Japan to settle the dispute.
It is likely that the region will become more volatile with
divergent issues like North Korea’s nuclear programme,
Thailand and Myanmar’s setbacks in democratic
development and various unresolved territorial disputes
complicating it. In addition to these circumstances,
Philippines filing a case against China in the
international tribunal followed by Vietnam’s threat to
file a case as well are only toughening Chinese
behaviour in the region.
The US and Japan are increasing their military
engagement and strengthening regional countries’
defence postures - this is likely to receive a counter-
attack from China. The synergism of Japan and the US
will first increase conflict among countries and add to
instability in the region before gradually lessening
tensions.
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