Majid Izadpanahi
After the presidential elections of 14 June 2013, Iran’s Hassan Rouhani
has proved that he is introducing changes in the country’s foreign
policy based on cooperation and moderation as he did when he was nuclear
negotiator. Iranians have shown that they seek moderation and reject a
hardline policy. This election has therefore created opportunities and
opened the door for a rapprochement between Iran and the West.
The results of this election was a clear message from Iranians to the
world, particularly the US, that they prefer a rational policy and
dialogue with the West, a moderate approach, and the preference to be a
part of the international community, rather than following an
adventurous policy, confrontation with the West, and isolation. The
radicals in Iran faced a dramatic defeat despite their eight-year old
domination of the executive system.
Why Change?
Ahmadinejad’s maladministration led to economic chaos, devaluation of
the Iranian currency and decline of the rate of economic growth. The
conservatives’ hardline policies led to the internationally isolation of
Iran. Admadinejad’s controversial speeches and policies raised
suspicions in the West about Iran’s nuclear programme. This led to the
to imposition of international sanctions on Iran with the purpose of
curbing Iran’s nuclear weapons programme at the United Nations Security
Council. The sanctions targeted the Iranian oil industry, banks and its
economy, which had an adverse impact on the Iranian economy as well as
Iran’s economic relations with other countries. Through the sanctions,
there was an attempt to deprive the Iranian government of oil revenue
and finally influence the nuclear programme. In response to this,
Ayatollah Khamenei termed the sanctions barbaric.
Today, Iranian President Rouhani is determined to bring to end
speculation about Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and rebuild relations
with the world and the West. Beyond that, he seeks to normalise the
relationship with the US – as he himself said, Iran cannot be resentful
of the US forever.
Iran-Middle East
Relations between Iran and its neighbours are on an upward slope. Sultan
Qaboos of Oman, who mediates between Tehran and Washington, visited
Iran, perhaps to discuss mediation with the government. The ruler of
Dubai, Shaikh Al Maktoum, in his interview with BBC in January 2014
demanded that the sanctions on Iran be lifted. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign
Minister Saud Al faisal met Iranian Foreign Minister, Zavad Zarif in New
York, where they discussed bilateral cooperation to fight terrorism and
other regional problems.
Iran-Europe
There has been a significant change in Iran’s behaviour towards major
European countries. After the seizing of the British Embassy by radicals
and break in relations in 2011, the Iranian Foreign Minister recently
met the British Foreign secretary and the respective embassies were
reopened in Tehran and London. President Rouhani in his visit to Davos
for the World Economic Forum invited oil companies to invest in Iran and
was warmly welcomed by the large oil companies. Further, Iran and the
P5+1 group reached an interim nuclear deal and the West has temporally
suspended some of the sanctions on Iran until a final agreement is
reached, when all sanctions will hopefully be removed.
Nuclear Deal
Just one month after Rouhani took the office Ayatollah Khamenei paved
the way for flexibility in negotiations with the West by saying, “As
long as red lines are not crossed … artful and heroic flexibility in all
the political arenas are accepted.” This can be interpreted as
Ayatollah Khamenei’s support for Rouhani’s foreign policy based on
interactions with the West and integration in the international system.
Iran-US
Thirty five years after the Revolution and subsequent break in ties, the
Iranian and American presidents had a landmark telephonic conversation,
and the foreign ministers of both states have met several times in the
form of bilateral and multilateral talks. The optimism that now has
appeared is not only due to the gradual lifting of sanctions but also
the results of the 2013 elections that brought back the pragmatists and
reformists to power, who have already shown their eagerness for friendly
relations with the West.
How Long Will the Change Last?
Everything now depends on how the US perceives the political situation
in Iran and responds to the policy of the moderates. If the moderates
and reformists get the expected results, it can increase their political
manoeuvrability against the conservatives and radicals. The bottom line
would be that the radicals would then not be able undermine the
moderates’ authority.
Given the upcoming parliamentary elections in December 2015 in Iran, it
becomes important to point out that parliament today is under the rule
of conservatives. If the moderates hope to win, they will have to
strengthen their position against the conservatives, and for this they
need tangible achievements in terms of the economy and a comprehensive
nuclear agreement. The nuclear deal can change Iran’s political and
economic situation. And the sooner they achieve it, the better able they
will be to change the power equation.
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