18 Aug 2016

The 2016 elections and the crisis of American democracy

Joseph Kishore

The 2016 US elections mark a new stage in the deep and protracted crisis of American democracy. Political parties that have been in existence for well over a century and a half are breaking apart. New political alignments are emerging, and an extremely dangerous type of politics, in gestation for an extended period of time, is erupting to the surface.
In the aftermath of the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Donald Trump’s standing in the polls has declined significantly, particularly in key battleground states. From prominent sections of the Republican Party and allied media there are complaints that Trump is not running a traditional race capable of winning office. There are mounting demands that he change course.
The editorial page of the Wall Street Journal wrote this week that if the Republican leadership “can’t get Mr. Trump to change his act by Labor Day,” it “will have no choice but to write off the nominee as hopeless and focus on salvaging the Senate and House…” As for Trump, the Journal declared that he needs to “decide if he wants to behave like someone who wants to be President—or turn the nomination over to [his vice presidential running mate] Mike Pence.”
What is most remarkable is how little Trump appears to be concerned with either the poll numbers or the increasingly strident complaints from the leadership of the party he nominally heads.
The Republican candidate on Wednesday responded to the complaints from the Journal and others by organizing a shake-up of his staff along precisely the opposite lines from those demanded by his Republican critics. He effectively demoted his current campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and appointed Breitbart News head Stephen Bannon to run the day-to-day operations of his campaign. In bringing on Bannon, the Guardian newspaper wrote, Trump “shook free the last vestiges of political supervision…with the appointment of a maverick…likely to favour his freewheeling style.” It is a “middle finger to the Republican establishment,” read a headline in the Washington Post.
More significant than issues of style are the political implications of Bannon’s selection. Breitbart News is at the center of the right-wing gutter press, the network of blogs and talk radio programs that promote the foulest, most nationalist, militarist and fascistic politics.
A report published in the Daily Beast on Wednesday pointed to Breitbart’s connections to white supremacist organizations like VDare, the National Policy Institute, Alt-Right and American Renaissance. Andrew Breitbart, the founder of Breitbart until his death in 2012, is reported to have approvingly called Bannon the “Leni Riefenstahl of the Tea Party movement,” referring to the Nazi propagandist and filmmaker. According to the Post, Bannon has encouraged Trump to run as an “unabashed nationalist.”
Bannon recently made waves when he defended former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski against accusations that he assaulted one of Breitbart’s own reporters, Michelle Fields. Breitbart has since been transformed into what amounts to a campaign web site for Trump.
Trump’s evident disinterest in the opinions of prominent Republican officials is in line with a political orientation he has developed in the course of his campaign. He is calculating that there is a reservoir of social anger and frustration that can be channeled, on the basis of vague denunciations of the “elite,” in an extremely right-wing direction. As the World Socialist Web Site noted in March, following a string of Trump primary victories on Super Tuesday, “It was only a matter of time before one or another right-wing demagogue would recognize the political potential of an appeal to the economic and social insecurity of millions of people.”
Whether or not he wins in November, Trump is creating the basis for a fascistic and nationalist movement, focused on attacks on immigrants, anti-Islamic hysteria, calls for “law and order” and demands for an end to all constraints on the police and military. This movement will persist after the elections, with Trump or some other demagogue at its head.
In this connection, it is significant that Trump is increasingly raising the charge that the elections are rigged in favor of Clinton and the Democrats, with the clear implication that a Clinton presidency will be illegitimate from the start.
In the final analysis, Trump speaks for a section of the ruling class that is well aware of the crisis of its economic and political system, and the growth of social opposition, and is preparing more authoritarian and violent methods of rule.
Trump represents a serious danger for the working class. However, his ability to gain a hearing among certain oppressed sections of the population is due above all to the bankrupt and reactionary character of what passes for “left” politics in the United States. Trump’s denunciations of “crooked Hillary,” his attacks on the media, his broadsides against the “political correctness” of the liberal elite are meant to tap into a deep well of hostility to the Democratic Party, magnified after seven and a half years of the Obama administration.
Over the past month, the World Socialist Web Site’s characterization of Clinton as the candidate of the political status quo has been ever more dramatically confirmed. She now has the explicit or implicit backing of everyone from neoconservative Republicans such as Iraq warmonger Robert Kagan, to top intelligence officials such as former CIA heads Michael Morell and Michael Hayden, to the Obama administration, the entire trade union apparatus and former primary challenger Bernie Sanders. To this list must be added major hedge fund billionaires and most of the media.
A Clinton presidency would represent an alliance between Wall Street and corporate America, the military-intelligence apparatus, and the upper-middle class layers that adhere to the Democratic Party on the basis of the politics of race, gender and sexual identity. The focus of a Clinton administration would be a vast expansion of US military interventions, particularly in the Middle East and against Russia, as well as an intensification of the Obama administration’s anti-Chinese “pivot to Asia.”
The Democrats and the media are seeking to turn the elections into a mandate for war, even as the vast implications for the population of the United States and the world are covered up. The Clinton campaign has centered its criticisms of Trump not on his fascistic policies, but on his alleged ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his unsuitability, for both political and psychological reasons, to serve as US commander in chief.
The nature of the Clinton campaign—particularly in the unprecedented intervention of top intelligence and military officials—in its own way expresses the crisis of bourgeois democracy. The program she is preparing requires an escalation of the assault on the working class and a further dismantling of constitutional forms of rule beyond what has already been implemented by Bush and Obama.
In the 2016 elections, processes that have been developing for some time are coming to a head. It is now sixteen years since the theft of an election by the US Supreme Court brought George W. Bush to power, an event that was preceded by an impeachment campaign against Hillary Clinton’s husband based on a manufactured sex scandal.
The 2000 elections were followed by the attacks of September 11, 2001. 9/11 was used to justify the “war on terror,” which brought the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the wars in Libya and Syria and a new war in Iraq, the Patriot Act and domestic spying, Guantanamo Bay, CIA torture and drone assassinations. A quarter century of war—going back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the proclamation by the first Bush administration of a “New World Order”—has led to an immense growth in the power and influence of the military and intelligence agencies.
Underlying the crisis of democratic forms of rule is the long-term decay of American capitalism, accompanied by a process of financialization and the rise of a new aristocracy that has accumulated unimaginable levels of wealth by means of parasitism and speculation. Social inequality is at record levels, and a large majority of the population confronts some combination of unemployment, economic insecurity and poverty-level wages.
The basic trajectory of popular sentiment is to the left. Recent polls confirm the undeniable fact that millions of people view the entire political system, including both Clinton and Trump, with hatred and contempt. The widespread support for the Sanders campaign in the Democratic primaries showed that broad sections of the population are looking for a way to oppose the domination of the banks and corporations over economic and political life. The outcome of Sanders’ campaign—which the WSWS anticipated and repeatedly warned against—has ensured that this sentiment finds no political expression.
Whatever the outcome of the November election, the crisis of American democracy will intensify. The greatest danger facing working people is that they are not politically organized and they are not conscious of the tasks they confront. The presidential election campaign of the Socialist Equality Party is aimed precisely at developing the independent political organization and consciousness of the working class.
The dangers before workers in the United States and internationally will not be resolved through tactical maneuvers or wishful thinking. What is required is an uncompromising political struggle, based on the understanding that the political crisis is a reflection of the crisis of the entire capitalist system.
The candidates of the SEP—Jerry White for President and Niles Niemuth for Vice President—are advancing a socialist and internationalist program that represents the interests of the working class and prepares it for the struggles that lie ahead.
The World Socialist Web Site speaks each day to tens of thousands of readers. Events have proven the correctness of the perspective and program of the Socialist Equality Party. The time has come to draw the necessary political conclusions. We say to all our readers who recognize the dangers and the need to fight for socialism: Translate your convictions into actions.

The GST Bill: Benefits, Shortcomings, and Ways Forward

Prerana Priyadarshi


The Constitution Amendment Bill for Goods and Services Tax (GST) was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 3 August 2016. New Delhi appears committed to replace all indirect taxes levied on goods and services by the Centre and States with the GST, by April 2017. Why is the GST India's biggest tax reform? How can the country benefit from it?

GST in a NutshellIn India’s federal system of governance, taxes are imposed by both the central and state governments. The GST would be a comprehensive indirect tax on manufacture, sale and consumption of goods and services throughout India which will replace all taxes levied by the Central and State governments. The GST will be a dual one, levied concurrently by the Centre (CGST) and the States (SGST). Inter-State supplies within India would attract an Integrated GST (aggregate of CGST and the SGST of the Destination State).

Unlike the current indirect tax structure, the GST will make the tax system simpler and more compliance rich; lead to reduction in tax outflow from the consumers; boost in tax revenues; and more competitive exports. Now that the amendment bill has been passed by the Rajya Sabha and ratified by the Lok Sabha, it is also important to look into the sticking points that held the passage of the bill despite it being such a critical reform.

Reasons for Delay and the Final Deal Struck
Though the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government managed to get the GST amendment bill passed in the Lok Sabha in 2015 and all the small regional opposition parties had in principle agreed to support GST, the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, had three points of dispute with the Bill, which had stalled its passage in the Rajya Sabha. They were: 

1. To mention the upper cap of tax, i.e. 18 per cent, explicitly in the constitution

2. 
To expand the powers of the GST Council comprising of representatives of the State and the Centre to resolve disputes on revenue-sharing between federal units and to establish a dispute resolution body and mechanism

3. 
To abolish the additional levy of 1 per cent on inter-state trade as it undermines the basic attribute of GST, whose purpose is to unify and simplify indirect tax regime

A consensus on the points 2 and 3 two points has been reached but for the point 1, the government has assured that a GST Council will take the decision regarding the tax rate cap. However, it is illogical to include a rate in the constitution as any further change in rate will need another amendment in the constitution and will also reduce the flexibility of the government.
The opposition parties have also unanimously demanded that the CGST and IGST Bill be brought as financial bills instead of as a money bill to which government has assured compliance of the constitution.

Key manufacturing states, especially Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Maharashtra were concerned about the impact of GST on revenue collection. The Centre has agreed to compensate the States for the transitional revenue loss in the new tax regime for the initial five years. Additionally, the rising share of the services sector in the GDP from 41 per cent in 1990-91 to 66 per cent in 2015-16 will compensate a large portion of the anticipated revenue loss by the manufacturing states.

Benefits of Implementing the GSTThe amalgamation of several Central and State taxes into a single tax will mitigate cascading or double taxation, facilitating a common national market. Working on the destination principle (from manufacturing to retail outlets), exports would be zero-rated and imports would attract the tax in the same manner as domestic goods and services. A transparent and corruption-free tax administration along with automation of compliance procedures will reduce errors and increase efficiency. The GST will widen the tax base that would lower tax rates and eliminate classification disputes. This would increase tax revenues, benefitting both the State and the Centre; and the tax paid by the end consumer will reduce in most cases. It is estimated that India will gain USD 15 billion a year by implementing the GST.

Drawbacks of the GSTService-related sectors, including telecom and consumer staples, which are currently at a tax rate of 15 per cent, might get impacted negatively, as they may have to shell out higher taxes. Furthermore, there is a risk that the GST can be inflationary; but inflationary pressures will depend on how the Revenue Neutral Rate (RNR) decided by the GST Council is split between standard and low rate. The RNR is the rate wherein the States and the Centre do not suffer any revenue losses from moving to a new tax regime. The RNR in the 15-15.5 per cent range with a lower rate of 12 per cent and a standard rate of 18 per cent would have no aggregate inflation impact.

Road Ahead for the GSTThis landmark legislation still needs to clear some more hurdles before the Bill becomes a Law, enforceable by the 1 April 2017 deadline. For starters, it needs to be passed by at least half the total states, followed by a presidential approval. The next step will be the formation of the GST Council within 60 days of the enactment of the Bill. The Council will work on reaching a consensus regarding a series of contentious issues such as the GST rate, the RNR, and the exclusion list, among others. The passage of the CGST and the IGST in the parliament and the SGST in state assemblies will be the final step. Therefore, ensuring the development and testing of proper IT infrastructure, including the GST Network and training of officials, is extremely crucial.

To make the GST successful, the government must ensure that the end consumer gets their share of benefits. It can be done by including an anti-profiteering clause in the GST that will prevent companies from taking undue advantage of the levy to charge more and make excessive profits.

17 Aug 2016

UNESCO/Czech Republic Joint Fellowships for Developing Countries 2017 – Bachelors and Masters

Brief description: UNESCO in association with the Government of the Republic of Czech is offering a number of fellowship opportunities for Bachelors and Masters studies to students from developing nations.
Application Deadline: 30th September 2016 (Midnight Paris time)
Offered annually? No
Eligible Countries: Developing countries. Other invited Member States entitled to submit candidatures are:
– Uzbekistan;
– Yemen and
– Zimbabwe
To be taken at (country): Czech Republic
Eligible Fields of Study:  The donor country highly recommends the following field of studies: Natural Resources and Environment, Forestry Engineering, Tropical Agriculture, Water and Landscape Management, Economics and Finance, Environment, Ecology and Environmental Protection, Informatics, Engineering Informatics, Computer Science, Mechanical Engineering, Energy Engineering.
Preference will be given to students who will take these fields of study.
The courses to be undertaken for the programme are: natural resources and environment, forestry water and landscape management, technology and environmental engineering, economics and finance would be given priority.  Note:  There is no possibility to change the field of study/study programme once the fellowship is awarded.
About the Award: In order to promote human resource capacities in the developing Member States and to enhance friendship among peoples of the world, the Government of the Czech Republic has placed at the disposal of UNESCO three long-term fellowships for undergraduate studies (which comprises the Bachelor’s and Master’s study programmes for the academic year 2017-2018) for the benefit of certain developing Member States. Neither a citizen of the Czech Republic, nor a citizen of a Member State of the European Union, nor any other foreign national with a permanent residence permit on the territory of the Czech Republic may therefore be granted this type of scholarship.
The studies being conducted in Czech language, the candidates to benefit from these fellowships will be required to take a special language and preparatory course before starting their studies. The Czech language course will be provided by the Charles  University in Prague.
Offered Since:
Type:
Eligibility: Language requirement would be English or French
Selection Criteria: Selection will be made on a competitive basis and priority will be given to applicants who, apart from meeting the academic qualifications required, opt for the fields of study enumerated above. It is important to note that there is no possibility to change the field of study or the study programme once the fellowship has been awarded.  We would also wish to emphasize that only applications with complete documentation shall be considered for evaluation. 
Number of Awardees:
Value of Fellowship: 
Facilities offered by the Government of the Czech Republic
  1. Tuition is free of charge
  2. A monthly allowance of 14,000 Czech Crowns (1 euro = approximately 25 crowns) for students undertaking bachelor and master’s study programmes (Should this allowance be considered insufficient, the applying Member State may consider granting a partial contribution, or, the candidate may have to seek other funds from private sources to complement this allowance)
  3. Accommodation at the student dormitories at reduced rates (to be paid by the fellow from the monthly allowance mentioned in (2) above)
  4. Access to meals (to be paid with the monthly allowance) in the student dining halls
  5. Access to discounts for urban transportation
  6. The Ministry of Health provides medical care to fellows.
Facilities offered by UNESCO
  1. UNESCO will cover international travel expenses within the framework of the Fellowships Programme under the Regular Programme.  Upon selection of the candidates, UNESCO will undertake the necessary action to authorize tickets to the beneficiaries before their departure for the Czech Republic.  And,
  2. A special one-time allowance of US$200 to cover transit and other miscellaneous expenses.
Duration of Fellowship: 3 to 6 years
How to Apply: All applications should be endorsed by the relevant Government body (such as the National Commission or Permanent Delegation), must be made on a Czech fellowship application form, filled out in English in electronic form until 30 September 2016 (http://registr.dzs.cz/registr.nsf/unesco).
The registration will be open for application until 30 September 2016 (Midnight Paris Time). After filling out the application, the candidate is requested to submit an online motivation letter and take a test.
Award Provider: UNESCO, Czech Republic
Important Notes: 
  • All foreigners who are to study in the Czech Republic are required to obtain a long-term residence permit. Details of the procedures to be followed to obtain this visa will be provided to selected candidates.
  • Selected candidates will be required to provide a certificate attesting a clean criminal record
  • No provision to finance or lodge family members can be made. It is the National authorities’ responsibilty to ensure that all candidates are duly informed of the above conditions prior to submission of their applications for these fellowships.

KAAD Germany Research Fellowship Program for Developing Countries 2017/2018

Application Deadline: 30th of November for the March academic session.
Offered annually? Yes
Eligible Countries: Countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East or Latin America. Countries in Africa include: Ghana, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe and Kenya.
To be taken at (country): Germany.  There is also the possibility for Master-scholarships at local universities.
Brief description: KAAD is working with partner countries in the aforementioned regions to provide scholarship opportunities to citizens who are interested in research. There are so-called Partner Committees in these countries and applications are channelled via them. Applications from other countries can be considered only in exceptional cases.
Eligible Field of Study: There is no specific subject-preference. However, the selection board has often given preference to courses and subjects that they felt to be of significance for the home country of the applicant. This holds true especially for subjects of PhD-theses. There is therefore a certain leaning towards “development oriented” studies – this does however not mean that other fields (cultural, philosophic, linguistic, etc.) can not be of significance for a country and are ruled out.
About the Award: The KAAD Scholarship Program is addressed to post-graduates and to academics living in their home countries who already gained professional experience and who are interested in postgraduate studies (or research stays) in Germany. This program is administered by regional partner committees, staffed by university professors and church representatives. Normally documents are submitted to the committee of the applicant’s home country.
Type: Postgraduate(Masters and PhD) scholarship
Eligibility: To be eligible,candidates must:
  • come from a developing or emerging country in Africa, Asia, the Middle East or Latin America and are currently living there
  • have a university degree and professional experience from their home country
  • want to acquire a master’s degree or a PhD at a German university or do a post-doctoral research project (2-6 months for established university lecturers) at a German university
  • be Catholic Christian (or generally belong to a Christian denomination). Candidates from other religions can apply if they are proposed by Catholic partners and can prove their commitment to interreligious dialogue
  • possess German language skills before starting the studies (KAAD can provide a language course of max. 6 months in Germany)
Selection Criteria: 
  • KAAD’s mission is to give scholarships mainly to lay members of the Catholic Church. This means, that – There is a preference for Catholic applicants.
  • However, among the scholars, there is a limited number of: Protestant Christians, Orthodox Christians (especially from Ethiopia)and Muslims.
  • Catholic priests and religious people are eligible only in very rare cases.
Expectations from KAAD: 
  • Above-average performance in studies and research
  • The orientation of your studies or research towards permanent reintegration in your home region (otherwise the scholarship is turned into a loan),
  • Religious and social commitment (activities) and willingness to inter-religious dialogue.
Number of Awardees: Not specified
Value of Scholarship: Not stated
Duration of Scholarship: Duration of research
How to Apply:Interested graduates can download the application questionnaire. It is then to be filled and sent back to af3[at]kaad.de. AfterschoolAfrica suggests that you go through the FAQs
Award Provider: Katholischer Akademischer Ausländer-Dienst, Germany

Development and Maoists

Bibhu Prasad Routray


The killing of 23-year-old Rakesh Karu Gawde on 30 July 2016 by the cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) was the latest onslaught by the extremists on what they perceive to be a competing and overwhelming development initiative by the government. A second year tribal graduation student in Gadchiroli district, Rakesh, according to the police sources, was providing information about government schemes to his community. The extremists, who labelled him as a police informer, picked him up from his village and shot him dead in a neighbouring village.

Rakesh may or may not have been a police informer. Assuming that he was indeed a police informer, killing him served two purposes for the extremists. Firstly, the intelligence network of the police was disrupted. Secondly, official outreach attempts regarding development schemes meant for the tribals suffered a setback.

Not only would it become somewhat harder for the tribals of the area to know of such schemes, they would also be reluctant to avail these given that the Maoists have killed Rakesh.

An important component of the contestation between the state and the Maoists to dominate areas and secure loyalties of the tribal population in many remote parts of the country continues to be between two distinct development paradigms. At one level, it appears ironic that the extremists who have accused the state of neglecting the tribal population have themselves remained a cause of their lack of development. Maoists have destroyed schools, roads, mobile towers, and health centres. They continue to abduct, attack, and kill Sarpanchs in many villages, ensuring that rural self-government institutions are incapacitated. Their opposition to developmental projects has been interpreted as a strategy to maintain the backwardness of the tribal inhabited areas of the country. A deep level of alienation and disenchantment among the tribals towards the state is a critical necessity to maintain the relevance of the Maoist ideology. Development, on the other hand, undercuts Maoist influence.

At the other level, Maoists insist that their opposition to the state's development project does not make them anti-development per se. While critiquing the state's development plan as nothing but a sinister design to dispossess the tribals from "jal, jangal and zameen," the CPI-Maoist insists that its own development model excels over that of the state and has rescued the tribals from the politician-bureaucrat-contractor nexus in areas under their control. What constitutes such a paradigm and how much of this has been actually implemented is much less known and has remained confined to select pages of the Maoist propaganda material and occasional media reports. Yet, the available literature does provide some indication regarding what Maoists consider to be development and also, how such strategies have been sought to be used by the outfit to win over the tribals.

The Janathana Sarkar, modelled along the lines of the Soviets in the revolutionary Russia, remains at the heart of the development paradigm of the Maoists. At one point in time, the CPI-Maoist claimed to have set up these embryonic centres of power in hundreds of villages in the Dandakaranya region, where they set up base in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The Janathana Sarkar, Maoist literatures claim, is "involved in production, cultural, educational and military sectors, aiming at all round development of people’s lives, livelihoods." The literature speaks of distribution of cows, poultry, goats, seeds for agriculture that made the villagers self-sufficient. The outfit distributed money during times of famine and repaired damaged houses. Distribution of land seized from landlords and rich peasants; cooperative activity ensuring selling of forest produce in weekly markets; and ensuring a good rate for those products, are other activities that constitute the Maoist development plan. Maoists, on the other hand, remain opposed to the indiscriminate use of technology in agriculture "without people's understanding and involvement."

Whether or not these measures are token in nature, is debatable. In any event, none would have expected the Maoist development initiatives to out-scale the capacity of the state to transform the area. The key question, however, is whether such a development model is capable of bringing changes to the lives of the tribals or whether it is only an instrument to subjugate them to the diktats of the Party for perpetuity.  Will not insulating the lives of the tribals from the changes taking place all around further feed alienation and disenchantment?

While critical questions can also be posed regarding the state's development model for the tribals, a degree of change is perceptible on the ground to an extent. As Nirmalangshu Mukherjee sums up, "The Indian state, including the judiciary, has initiated remedial measures (belatedly) for adivasis such as action against the illegal mining and severe punishment to powerful violators, cancellation of problematic MoUs, re-enforcement of panchayat in schedule areas, introduction of forest rights and education acts, additional welfare funding in conflict zones, and the like." The state has indeed made a course correction, but the implementation of its intentions may have continued to be problematic.

If bringing development to the lives of the tribals is the real aim of the Maoists, to a large extent, they have been able to achieve those objectives by forcing a course correction on the state. This creates additional reasons for cessation of violence and be part of an unarmed resistance for the benefit of the same tribals.

Rogue NDFB Pushed to the Wall?

Wasbir Hussain


After a two year hiatus, the Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-S) struck again on 5 August, raiding a crowded roadside market near Kokrajhar, in western Assam, killing 14 civilians and injuring at least 18 others. The police was quick to conclude that the rogue NDFB-S was behind the attack. Their evidence was one of the attackers shot dead by the security forces who arrived at the scene soon after. The police as well as the visiting state Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma identified the slain attacker as Monjoy Islari alias Mwdan, described as a self-styled commanding officer of the NDFB-S’ so-called ‘western command.’ The NDFB-S was equally quick to deny its involvement in the attack.
A fortnight after the raid, security officials seem to suggest it was a lone-wolf attack and that a ‘heavily drunk’ Mwdan might have carried out the raid without the approval of the NDFB-S. The Chief of the Bodo Council (the local administrative body) Hagrama Mahilary even appears to be ready for peace talks with any rebel group keen on shunning violence. That means if the NDFB-S were to offer talks in the future after being cornered, the authorities could well consider playing ball. This stance runs counter to the statement made by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh who had stated after two major NDFB-S massacres in 2014, there is no question of engaging in peace talks with terror outfits like the NDFB-S that indulges in mindless violence.
That it was a random attack was clear because the dead include Bodos (7 of the 14), Bengalis (both Muslims and Hindus) and an Assamese. In the past, particularly during two of the biggest assaults carried out by the NDFB-S in May and December 2014, the targets were migrant Muslim settlers and Adivasis. Significantly, the email that the NDFB-S sent out to the media denying its involvement was dated 19 July, a Tuesday. The Balajan market operates twice a week - Tuesday and Friday (5 August was a Friday). So, the question arises whether the outfit had actually planned to carry out the attack on 19 July but had to abort the plan for some reason.
Why would the NDFB-S kill people at random, deviating from its practice of carrying out targeted attacks? Did the outfit deny its involvement in the attack in a hurry because so many Bodos were among the dead? Answers may not be forthcoming easily, but the fact remains that the NDFB-S has been facing severe reverses since the past year and has actually been pushed to the wall. First, its founder Ingti Kathar Songbijit was sidelined by his colleagues and removed as the outfit’s president after a ‘general Assembly meeting’ on 14 and 15 April 2015. Confirmation of this came from the NDFB-S itself through a press statement on 27 June 2015 where the outfit announced the organisational revamp. The statement was signed by its new president B Saoraigwra, who replaced Songbijit.
Songbijit, actually a Karbi tribal, may be currently cooling his heels somewhere in China’s Yunnan Province, close to the Myanmar border. Even the most powerful NDFB-S leader, G Bidai, who is its vice-president, is said to be cornered by the continuing counter-insurgency operations and forced to confine himself along the Assam-Bhutan border. According to the intelligence community, the NDFB-S has actually been pushed to the wall, and the 5 August attack is seen as a desperate bid by the outfit to divert the attention of the army offensive from the border with Bhutan to create an opportunity for Bidai and other senior leaders to move to a safer location. In fact, the slain NDFB-S commander Monjoy Islari alias Mwdan was apparently operating together with four other experienced sharp-shooters directly under Bidai until May this year. But, the intensified security offensive had forced the group to part company, and eventually three members of this group were killed in shootouts with the security forces. Monjoy Islari, according to the intelligence community, was frustrated over the loss of his colleagues.
No one is surprised at the authorities pointing their needle of suspicion at the NDFB-S because the outfit had carried out several murderous raids in the past, but the question today is whether it did it solo or whether there were other rebel groups and terror elements providing its cadres assistance. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is probing the case and more information may emerge, but there is no doubt that the NDFB-S, like a few other rebel outfits in the region like the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) in Meghalaya, has degenerated into a pure terror group, killing unarmed civilians and indulging in kidnapping for ransom.
This is the first insurgent violence anywhere in Assam after the BJP-led government of Sarbananda Sonowal assumed office on 24 May. One, therefore, will get the opportunity to see whether the new government’s counter-insurgency strategy will be any different. Most importantly, the Narendra Modi government’s stated policy on combating terror has been one of 'zero tolerance'. Whether this comes into application in Assam now remains to be seen. The timing, too, is critical. The attack came ahead of Independence Day and it has been a ritual among insurgent groups in Assam and elsewhere in the Northeast to step up attacks on the symbols of the Indian state ahead of key days on the national calendar or call for boycotts of all functions associated with the occasion. But, whether it was a symbolic show of strength or whether it signals the regrouping of the NDFB-S remains to be seen.

Pacific island economies hit by global slump

John Braddock

Countries in the Pacific region will see economic growth sharply decline from 7.0 percent, recorded last year, to an average of 3.9 percent in 2016, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In its Pacific Economic Monitor of July 2016, the ADB attempted to put a positive gloss on the figures, claiming the region was unlikely to be “significantly affected by heightened uncertainty in the global economy.” Some Pacific economies improved slightly last year, it said, reflecting stronger than expected performance in tourism, fisheries and construction.
However, international growth forecasts for 2016 have been lowered to 3.1 percent, indicating a turn towards stagnation and slump, highlighted by slowdowns in China and Britain and poor growth figures in the US.
The ADB’s Pacific Department director Xianbin Yao warned of “risks” in the global economic outlook and continued “challenges” for the Asia-Pacific region’s larger resource-export dependent economies, due to low commodity prices. The World Bank previously noted that in the wake of the 2008 global crash, the Pacific’s low-income countries were among those hit by shocks from slower world export growth, reduced remittances and lower export prices.
In the Pacific, projections for GDP growth in 2016 range from 1.5 percent in the Marshall Islands to 6.2 percent in the Cook Islands. The regional powers, Australia and New Zealand, face stagnant growth. Australia’s growth, affected by the demise of its mining boom, is expected to remain at 2.5 percent, while New Zealand’s is predicted to slow to 2.0 percent, led by stagnation in dairying.
Growth in the Pacific’s two largest economies, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Fiji, is forecast to decline steeply. PNG’s will plummet from 15 percent in 2015 to 4.3 percent in 2016 and Fiji’s from 4 percent to 2.4 percent. The falls reflect the collapse of commodity prices hitting PNG and the impact of Cyclone Winston on Fiji.
According to the UN’s Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (2016), the Pacific’s growth last year was largely driven by production of liquefied natural gas in PNG, which accounted for 60 percent of the region’s output. This masked “much slower economic expansion and even contraction in other countries,” the report stated.
PNG’s growth rate is forecast to drop further to 2.4 percent in 2017. One economist referred to a “frightening” fall of 20 percent in government revenues in the past year. Combined budget deficits of 24 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the past three years are the largest for any three-year period in PNG’s 40-year history.
PNG’s public debt is set to increase this year to 32.2 percent of GDP, surpassing the legal limit of 30 percent under the country’s Fiscal Responsibility Act. The government has imposed austerity measures similar in scope to those in Greece, slashing health and education budgets and exacerbating the social crisis facing the working class and rural poor.
Fiji’s economic outlook has weakened as a result of the damage and lost production from Cyclone Winston, which hit in February, causing estimated damage and losses equivalent to over 30 percent of GDP. The agriculture sector was severely affected by the cyclone, followed by a second in April, which destroyed crops across the country’s north and west.
The ADB predicted that sugar production, a mainstay of Fiji’s agriculture, will be 31 percent lower this year due to the cyclone damage and an El Niño-induced drought, which led to poor planting conditions in 2015. Fiji’s fiscal deficit is projected to increase to the equivalent of 4.7 percent of GDP.
The ADB also downgraded growth forecasts for Solomon Islands for 2016 and 2017, to 2.7 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.
Vanuatu’s economy was expected to benefit from reconstruction projects following last year’s devastating Cyclone Pam. The country is still recovering from the effects of the cyclone, however. The cost in lost tourism revenue alone was $AUD40 million, equivalent to 4 percent of GDP. Tourism accounts for between 40 and 65 percent of GDP and creates a third of all employment. On August 3, Virgin Australia followed Air New Zealand’s January announcement that it will indefinitely halt flights in and out of Vanuatu over concerns about the poor state of Port Vila’s runway.
The Pacific’s impoverished countries have recorded low and uneven growth rates in recent years. Between 2008 and 2013, only Nauru, PNG and Tuvalu saw annual GDP per capita growth higher than 3 percent. Nauru’s was due primarily to Canberra’s multi-million dollar funding for Australia’s refugee internment camp. GDP per capita decreased in both Kiribati and Palau.
Poverty and unemployment remain entrenched. According to census results, in Tonga only 52 percent of the working-age population is “economically active.” In Kiribati, more than 30 percent of the labour force is unemployed, while almost 60 percent of those deemed to be working in Vanuatu are engaged in subsistence agriculture. Samoa is facing the closure of the Yazaki car component plant in 2017. Yazaki supplies parts to General Motors Holden and Toyota in Australia, both of which are in the process of shutting down. The company is Samoa’s largest private sector employer, with 1,000 workers.
The economies of the fragile Pacific micro-states depend on mineral extraction, agriculture and cheap labour, including remittances from overseas workers. Rural populations rely on subsistence agriculture and lack access to safe drinking water, sanitation, reliable sources of energy, education and health care. Diseases associated with poverty and poor diet, including obesity, heart disease and diabetes, are rife. Pacific countries are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change and natural disasters.
The imperialist powers, including Britain, France, Germany, the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, have exploited and fought over the region for a century. Post-World War II “independence” came late and has been characterised by ongoing underdevelopment and the entrenchment of narrow, corrupt ruling elites. Pacific governments have come under increasing pressure from international financial institutions to carry out pro-market “reforms” at the expense of their populations.
Representing the giant US fishing companies, Washington gave notice in January it would withdraw from the 27-year-old South Pacific Tuna Treaty, its most important commercial, aid and trade pact within the region. The US reneged on its 2016 contract with the umbrella Forum Fishing Agency after a sharp fall in skipjack tuna prices.
Had the treaty lapsed, it would have had devastating economic and social consequences for jobs, livelihoods and government revenues in most Pacific states. A new six-year deal, designed to contain costs for US fishing fleets accessing the Pacific’s vast exclusive economic zones, was signed in June but is still awaiting ratification by the US and the 16 Pacific island governments.

Japan prepares to expand military role abroad

Ben McGrath

Japan is set to announce that it will begin training its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) under new legislation passed last September enabling the military to take part in wars overseas. The first troops to undergo this program are to be sent to South Sudan in November, officially as part of the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS).
By this step, Japan also aims to further stake its claim in the new imperialist scramble for Africa. While conducted under the banner of the UN, nominally as a “peacekeeping” operation, the stepped-up multinational force in South Sudan marks another stage in a protracted US-led political and military intervention in Sudan. This has particularly focused on the country’s south, now a separate state, the location of most of the country’s oil wealth, previously controlled largely by Chinese firms.
Under Japan’s new military laws, which went into effect in March, the SDF is able to join combat operations alongside troops from other nations, so long as it supposedly involves “protecting” allies or civilians. This followed the reinterpretation of the constitution by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet in July 2014 to allow such “collective self-defense.”
The SDF operations in South Sudan represent a test case for how the legislation will be implemented. The troops to be trained will replace the contingent of 350 who are already stationed in the African country, ostensibly to aid in construction projects as part of UNMISS.
The pretext for doing so is the escalation of violence that has erupted in South Sudan in recent weeks. In July, Tokyo dispatched three military C-130 transport planes to evacuate Japanese citizens, mostly Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) personnel, from the country. While many left on a chartered aircraft, four embassy officials were taken out of the country on one of the planes, which had initially stopped at Japan’s military base in Djibouti.
Tokyo regularly exploits rescue missions to expand and justify the use of its military. Last September’s legislation was first introduced following the hostage crisis involving two Japanese men kidnapped and murdered by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). With July’s Upper House election concluded, the Abe government and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are pushing ahead with the remilitarization agenda more forcefully.
Japan’s interests in Africa and the region are related to energy needs. Last year, approximately 82 percent of Japanese oil imports came from the Middle East. As a result, Tokyo is seeking to expand its energy sources into countries like South Sudan, where China still has a substantial foothold. China’s National Petroleum Corporation owns a 40 percent stake in a joint venture to operate South Sudan’s oil fields.
Japan’s presence in Africa has been steadily growing in recent years. Having first sent troops to Djibouti in 2009 under the guise of combatting piracy, Tokyo established its first military base abroad since World War II in the tiny nation on the Horn of Africa in July 2011. The base is currently home to 600 Maritime SDF troops. From there, Japan has extended its influence to other parts of the continent, including Ghana during the Ebola outbreak.
In November 2011, the Democratic Party of Japan government of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda first approved dispatching the SDF to South Sudan. It followed Sudan’s carve-up by the US and European powers earlier that year as part of a drive to undercut Beijing’s activities in the region.
Stratfor, the private intelligence firm, wrote at the time: “The move into South Sudan may also signal a renewed effort to gradually reintroduce JSDF operations into strategic foreign policy initiatives—in this case, energy security. If it manages to secure a stronger foothold in South Sudan, Japan will be better positioned to deal with Chinese influence in the tumultuous Sudanese-South Sudanese oil industry framework.”
In February 2015, Abe’s cabinet revised Japan’s Official Development Assistance charter while establishing a Development Cooperation Charter to integrate its “aid and development” organizations, such as JICA, with the SDF. This was in conjunction with the National Security Strategy issued in December 2013 and overseen by the new National Security Council (NSC) established the same month. The NSC centralizes foreign and defense policy under the prime minister, while its work is kept hidden from the public by anti-democratic state secrecy laws.
The cabinet decision on the development charters stated: “In this new era, Japan must strongly lead the international community, as a nation that contributes even more proactively to securing peace, stability and prosperity of the international community from the perspective of ‘Proactive Contribution to Peace’.”
References to “proactive contribution to peace”—a phrase Abe has regularly used to justify unconstitutional legal changes—are in fact justifications for increased military operations internationally.
Last year, the Tokyo Foundation, a think-tank with connections to the Japanese government, released a report calling for enhanced cooperation between JICA and the SDF. One of the authors, Ippeita Nishida, responded to a question about the use of the SDF in an interview, titled “Tapping the Potential of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces,” with Nikkei Business Online in May 2015.
While making perfunctory statements about adhering to Japan’s so-called pacifist constitution, Nishida stated: “The general perception of Japan’s stature and influence in the international community is slipping in relative terms. Under the circumstances, we need to give serious thought to crafting a strategy that makes optimum use of the instruments we have at our disposal. One of those instruments is foreign aid, which Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida has called ‘our most important foreign policy tool.’ Another is the Self-Defense Forces, which can help enhance our influence and stature in the international community by contributing to international security.”
“Humanitarian” missions are simply the excuse the Abe government and LDP are using to further remilitarize Japan. This policy has met with widespread hostility among Japanese workers and youth. The Democratic Party has posed as an opponent of Abe, but it proposed legislation in February to also allow the SDF to be deployed abroad, so long as the operation had the fig leaf of UN approval, which is not required by Abe’s laws.

German media steps up anti-Russian agitation

Ulrich Rippert

On Tuesday, virtually every leading German newspaper published denunciations of the Russian government, blaming it for stoking the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine.
The day before, the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin in especially harsh terms. Merkel’s press secretary, Steffen Seibert, declared that the Russian and Syrian governments were responsible for the humanitarian catastrophe in the Syrian city of Aleppo. Russia’s offer to set up a supply corridor for food, water and medication, and to guarantee a daily three hour ceasefire, was, in Seibert’s words, “not good will, but cynicism.”
“Rarely has the German government criticized Russia so sharply over the war in Syria,” commented the Süddeutsche Zeitung in its lead article. The paper supports the position of the German government.
On the opinion page of the same paper, Stefan Kornelius declared, “In Aleppo the world will witness crimes against humanity in which Russia is heavily involved. Moscow is fuelling a military conflict which triggers memories of the slaughters among the rubble in the Second World War.” The “word of warning” from Berlin is welcome, but words “are never enough to bring a warring party to its senses.”
Berthold Kohler made similar arguments in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The Kremlin is using America’s restraint to dictate the course of events as a war party. The humanitarian catastrophe in Aleppo came as an opportunity for the Russian government. The “cynicism of Moscow” shows itself not only in Syria. The “declarations of the Kremlin in the Ukraine conflict are also soaked in lies, mockery and ridicule.”
German foreign policy must show the Kremlin “that cooperation will work in its favour, not confrontation,” wrote the associate editor of the FAZ. Then came a veiled criticism of German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier: “Some voices in the West, even German ones, were and are, however, likely to let Moscow assume the opposite.” The “denial of reality and wishful thinking” lurking behind all of this only encourages “Moscovite cynicism,” Kohler declared.
On Monday, Steinmeier used his visit to the city of Yekaterinburg in the Russian Urals to discuss the latest escalation between Russia and Ukraine and the war in Aleppo with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.
Following the discussion, Steinmeier said the “continuous hail of bombs” must stop. “That cannot and must not continue.” He said he was disappointed by Russia’s rejection of a sustained ceasefire, but wanted to resume discussions soon.
While Steinmeier helped to carry out the encirclement of Russia by NATO, he has attempted to keep open the lines of communication with the Kremlin so that they may also be used to apply political pressure to Russia. That is why he wraps the aggressive policies of NATO in diplomatic and restrained formulations.
This is a thorn in the side of some warmongers in the media, who demand even greater assertiveness on the part of German foreign policy. One typical representative of this attitude is Thomas Roth, moderator of the news programme Tagesthemen, whose one-sided, anti-Russian reporting leaves other media outlets in the shadows.
On Monday evening, Roth introduced his report on the Foreign Ministers meeting in Yekaterinburg with the words: “Naturally, talking is better than shooting.” But all participants would have to want that, he added. In Yekaterinburg the Russians have already chosen shooting instead of talking, “just as Lenin’s Bolsheviks shot and killed the Czar’s family in July 1918,” Roth continued.
Roth’s piece was followed by an entirely one-sided report by Golineh Atai on the situation in Ukraine. The correspondent cited, of all people, the “Crimean Tatar activist” Ilmi Umerov as the principal witness to deny Russian allegations that the government in Kiev had carried out a terrorist provocation against the Russian-controlled Crimea. Umerov is an acknowledged opponent of the Russian government who in the spring was temporarily detained by the Russian secret service.
Two years ago, Golineh Atai delivered completely biased reports on the putsch in Ukraine and the Maidan, protests presenting the events as a democratic movement despite the clearly visible participation of extreme right-wing and fascistic gangs. The coverage of Tagesthemen was so one-sided that it was criticized by the programme advisory board of ARD, the service which broadcasts it.
In the last week, media agitation against Russia has clearly increased. On Thursday, Spiegel Online declared: “We dedicate this day to the war in Syria, the decisive conflict of our times.” The ruins and the dead of Aleppo are “a disgrace to the world,” they wrote. The people there are in a desperate situation, “Syrian-Russia bombs strike hospitals, hundreds of thousands of civilians are threatened.”
A dozen propaganda articles followed: “Aleppo’s doctors ask Obama for Help,” “Red lines, missed chances, lost lands,” “Doctors report new poison gas attacks on Aleppo,” and so on. Under the title “Obama’s successor will intervene more decisively in Syria,” Spiegel Online published an interview with former US Defence Department staffer Anthony Cordesman, who stressed that Germany must decide, “sooner or later,” whether it is ready “for serious, shared responsibility.”
On the same day, Die Welt featured the headline: “The West must finally stop Putin.” One week earlier, Die Welt had written: “Aleppo is even worse than Srebrenica.” The massacre of Srebrenica, in which thousands of Bosnians were murdered in the summer of 1995, played an important role in justifying the NATO war against Yugoslavia.
The “debate magazine” the European published in its August edition an article titled: “The war criminals axis of Moscow-Damascus-Tehran.” The magazine claimed that Russia, Syria and Iran are carrying out a “genocidal war with no regard for the consequences” and “the western world” had made itself an “accomplice to barbarism.”
With its warmongering against Russia, the media raises the threat of armed conflict between the two largest nuclear-armed powers in the world, a conflict which would claim millions of lives in Europe and possibly spell the end of human civilization. This madness is their response to the dramatic intensification of the international crisis of capitalism.
As in the 1930s, when the German ruling class appointed Adolf Hitler as Chancellor of Germany to suppress any social and political opposition and prepare the violent subjugation of Europe and the Soviet Union, Germany’s ruling class is once again engaging in militarism, building up the state apparatus and promoting xenophobia to intimidate any resistance and to take part in the pursuit of raw materials and markets.
They follow the path of the United States, which is systematically encircling Russia and China and has destroyed large parts of the Middle East to defend its position as global hegemon.
The claim that Russia is “an aggressive and expansionist power” (FAZ) is a grotesque distortion of the facts. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union 25 years ago, NATO has advanced ever closer to Russia’s borders. Almost all East European states that were once allied with the Soviet Union, along with the former Baltic Soviet republics, have become members of Western military alliances.
The crisis in Ukraine was deliberately provoked by the Western powers. In early 2014, Washington and Berlin organized a putsch against pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych in close collaboration with fascistic forces and replaced him with the pro-Western oligarch Petro Poroshenko. Since then, the country has been plunged ever deeper into civil war and corruption, and situation of the population has drastically worsened.
The war in Syria is likewise the outcome of Washington’s attempts at regime change—with the same devastating consequences for the population. The so-called rebels largely consist of militias associated with Al-Qaeda and other Islamist groups and are provided with weapons and funds from the CIA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Now the German media complains because Russia’s intervention in the largely destroyed country has weakened these murderous forces.
The Putin regime has no progressive answer to this imperialist aggression. It bases itself on criminal oligarchs who enriched themselves on state property following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. They cannot appeal to the international working class and vacillate between attempts to come to terms with the West at any price and the threat of military retaliation. This makes the situation all the more dangerous and explosive.