24 Nov 2018

Islamist Terrorism: As You Sow So Shall You Reap

Patrick Howlett-Martin

Are the terrorist attacks in New York, Madrid, London, Sharm el-Sheikh, Amman, Islamabad, Djakarta, Sanaa, Boston, Ottawa, Peshawar, Paris, Benghazi, Copenhagen, Tunis, Chattanooga, Ohio, Orlando, Nice, Berlin, Manchester, Barcelona.. not to mention the terrorist Palestinian attacks in Tel Aviv and the numerous terrorist bombings in Afghanistan and Iraq, committed by Muslims, young delinquents, thugs, petty criminals, or mentally disturbed minds as we are told?
“Terrorists are nothing but thugs and criminals and predators, and—that’s right—losers,” according to the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
Orare they the by-products of the inconsistencies and brutalities of the belligerent Middle East policy practiced by the U.S., the U.K., France, Israel and NATO, the abject retaliations against innocent random passers-by for the thousands of deaths of innocents Muslims whose lives and names are almost never known to us?
Is the growing trend of terrorist attacks expected to be reduced by the continued military operations in Muslims lands that the U.S. president is eager to expand with his NATO partners, deepening the United States’s involvement in Afghanistan, where the 17 year-long war has already lasted longer than any other in American history, and in Yemen, one of the poorest countries where, according to the United Nations, half the population of 28 million faces starvation?
The use of military action as the core of a security strategy has led to radicalization in Muslim countries (Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Mali, Pakistan…) and in European Muslim communities. Security derives first and foremost from negotiation, mediation, and cooperation; a military response is not appropriate because it ultimately only generates more violence. The military interventions overseas increase the likelihood of transnational terrorist attacks against the people of the deploying state. Troops maintained in foreign countries to prevent or to repress terrorism actually increase the probability that those troops’ home countries will experience terrorism.
Three hundred and fifteen suicide attacks were recorded in the Middle East from 1980 to 2003; since 2003 they number in the thousands: documented figures put the number of suicide bombings from 2000 through 2015 at 4,787 in more than forty countries, resulting in 47,274 deaths.
In April 2017, the U.S. dropped the 21,600-pound (9,798-kg) “Mother of all Bombs”, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the world, on Nangarhar, Afghanistan. In September 2018 they deployed the most expensive weapons system in the history of the U.S. military, the F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter. From 2002 to 2018, the United States has spent more than 70 billion dollars financing Afghan security forces, including the Afghan military and police. But the Taliban now control 43 percent of the country: seventeen years after the United States went to war in Afghanistan the Taliban are gaining momentum. But an Islamic State affiliate that first appeared in Afghanistan in 2014 is becoming increasingly deadly and their attacks on the country’s minority Shiites have grown bolder and blooder. In one event, on March 8, 2017, Islamists militants disguised as medical personnel attacked a hospital in Kabul, killing 50 and injuring 91. An estimated 10,000 members of ISIL are now present in Afghanistan, and their numbers are growing due to the relocation of ISIL fighters after their defeats in Syria and Iraq. But the return to power of the Taliban, the only viable force to bring stability to the country, would be a major blow to U.S. “prestige”, so Washington would resort to anything to prevent that outcome, even the destruction of Afghanistan with the backing of NATO, U.K., and French authorities.
Between 2010 and 2016, despite more than 300 U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, which have killed approximately 1,000 people, AQAP, linked to Al Qaeda, has grown from “several hundred” militants to “up to four thousand”, according to the State Department’s annual terrorism report. In December 2017, the Pentagon (CENTCOM) acknowledged that ISIL has “doubled in size over the past year” in Yemen.
Al-Shabaab, initially with only weak links to al-Qaeda, was a small player in Somalia politics. In the aftermath of Ethiopia’s December 2006 brutal and illegal invasion of Somalia, undertaken with the tacit support of the United States, it became one of the most devastating terror groups in the region despite being outgunned and outnumbered against twenty thousand AMISOM troops (the regional force, funded by the U.N. and the E.U., is comprised of troops from Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Sierra Leone).On October 14, 2017, in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, a massive blast caused by a truck bomb widely attributed to al-Shabaab killed at least 587 people and injured 316.
Young Muslims (from the U.K., Belgium, France, Denmark, Germany, Canada…) join the jihad in Somalia, Libya, and Syria. They metamorphose into terrorists in the name of a cause that will continue to motivate followers as long as it continues to appear legitimate in their eyes. This cause is amplified by a growing Islamophobia, discrimination and marginalization of the Muslim community, especially the youth, and the persistence of the Palestinian drama. It is also fueled by repeated military operations on Islamic soil, particularly drone strikes, the indiscriminate deaths of innocents, leaving a wake of injustice and humiliation. The former head of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Michael Flynn (2012-2014), now admits that drones generate more terrorists than they kill. In early April 2018 a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, Micah Zenko, calculated that President Trump had approved an average of one drone attack per day—a fivefold increase from the rate under the Obama administration.In the first three months of 2018 U.K. drones fired as many weapons in Syria as they have done over the previous 18 months.
The extreme violence by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and their activists may seem less incomprehensible if we put it in the context of some hard, revealing data: 500,000 children died between 1991 and 1998 as a result of sanctions imposed against the regime of Saddam Hussein; an estimated 600,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed following the invasion and occupation of Iraq; in Afghanistan since 2003 Afghan sources say that the number of war dead is near the million mark. Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) paint a dismal picture: more than 130,000 people disabled, mainly because of landmines, including 40,000 amputees among the civilian population according to Afghan governmental sources, and these figures are considered to be significantly underestimated.The British Red Cross reports that 770 hospitals have been closed because of damage. The Global Burden of Disease Study shows that the maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births in Afghanistan increased from 732.3 in 1990 to 788.9 in 2015. The WHO reports that infant and under-five mortality rates are estimated at 165 and 257 per 1,000 live births per year, respectively. These figures remain among the highest rates in the world.
In 2017, more than 20,000 Afghans were killed, a new record. Up to 6,000 civilians were the victims U.S.-led strikes in Iraq and Syria in 2017, more civilians than in any previous year, according to the watchdog group AirWars, raising concerns that the coalition failed to take necessary precautions to avoid and minimize civilian casualties.With thousands of air attacks in Syria between September 2014 and August 20, 2015, the only civilian deaths publicly acknowledged by the Pentagon on May 21, 2015 were those of two 5-year-old girls. France doesn’t even care to communicate on this issue despite of its 6,000 bombing raids since September 2014 in Iraq and Syria. The RAF has conducted over 1,600 strikes against ISIL in Iraq and Syria as part of a U.S.-led coalition, but the U.K. Defense secretary, Gavin Williamson, told parliament that only one civilian was killed.
The U.S.-led campaign to retake Mosul from late 2016 to mid-2017, in which the U.K. was a major participant, claimed the lives of up to 10,000 civilians. The coalition, using almost exclusively U.S. planes, dropped 20,000 bombs on Raqqa. By the end of the five-month campaign, coalition forces had destroyed around 90 percent of the city, including thousands of homes, eight hospitals, 40 schools, and 30 mosques.Amnesty International released a report titled “‘War of Annihilation’: Devastating Toll on Civilians, Raqqa — Syria” detailing what the human rights group calls “potential war crimes,” including “disproportionate and indiscriminate attacks” committed by U.S.-led forces that “killed and injured thousands of civilians” during the 2017 battle to capture Raqqa from ISIL militants. The report’s title is a reference to an announcement in May 2017 by Defense Secretary James Mattis that the U.S. was escalating from a war of “attrition” to one of “annihilation.” As a result, there were more U.S. strikes on Yemen in 2017 than in the four previous years combined, according to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.
There are an estimated 5 million orphans in Iraq; 2 million in Afghanistan where 20% of the children will not live to see their fifth birthday according to a report by the World Bank. On April 30, 2015, in the Syrian village of Bir Mahli in the Aleppo Governorate, on the east bank of the Euphrates – a village I found peaceful and hospitable in 1972 when I participated in an archaeological dig at the Citadel of Aleppo – more than 50 civilians were killed by “coalition” bombs, including 31 children and 19 women.Human Rights Watch investigated several “coalition” airstrikes in towns near Raqqa, including one on a school housing displaced persons in Mansourah on March 20,2018 and a market and a bakery in Tabqa on March 22 that killed at least 84 civilians, including 30 children.
The number of Palestinian child fatalities in the first half of 2018 was nearly three times that of the same period last year. Eighteen of those killings took place in the context of the Great March of Return protests along Gaza’s eastern perimeter beginning in late March 2018.More than 150 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza since then, 115 of them during protests. Another 4,200 Palestinians in Gaza were wounded by live ammunition during that period.The youngest among those killed was Yasir Abu al-Naja, 11, who died after being shot by an Israeli sniper in the head during protests east of Khan Younis on 29 June, 2018. Over the space of 50 days in 2014 (July 8–August 26), 2,251 Palestinians were killed by the Israeli Air Force, including 1,462 civilians, among them 551 children, and 11,231 were injured, including 7,000 women and children.
The stabbings by young Palestinians are an outgrowth of endless brutality from Israeli settlers and security forces combined with discrimination, marginalization, constant humiliation, and injustices.
Nobody knows how many people have died in Yemen as a result of the fighting, although the independent group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) estimates that almost 50,000 people were killed from January 2016 to July 2018. Implying a much higher total, Save the Children, estimates that at least 50,000 children died in 2017 alone, or about 130 per day. The charity NGO further estimated that almost 400,000 children will need treatment for severe acute malnutrition. On August 9, 2018, in the town of Dahyan, the U.S.-backed Saudi-led coalition dropped a bomb on a school bus packed with children. Of the 54 people killed, 44 were children between the ages of 6 and 11. The pictures of the dead and injured children, some of whom can be seen wearing their blue UNICEF backpacks, are distressing. CNN reported that the weapon used was a 227-kg laser-guided bomb made by Lockheed Martin, one of many thousands sold to Saudi Arabia as part of billions of dollars in weapons exports. On August 23, a  mere two weeks after the school bus attack, Saudi-led coalition airstrikes killed yet another 26 children and four women fleeing the fighting in the western province of Hudaydah. But French president Emmanuel Macron dismissed as “demagoguery” the calls by several European countries to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia during a news conference on October 26, 2018.
What can we expect when children, the most precious part of our life, are killed or abused, except more grief, hatred, and violence? What can we hope to reap from fields sown with so much sorrow and despair? What alternative means of redress is offered to Gaza resident Tawfik Abu Jama, the only survivor of an Israeli bombing raid on July 20, 2014 that killed 26 members of his family, including his wife and his eight children?
What goes through the mind of a young Western Muslim hearing about these atrocities on social media?
Since 2014, millions of people have been forced into refugee status, and these appalling figures only continue to grow (more than 4 million Syrian refugees). The 71 decomposing Syrian bodies found in a smuggler’s abandoned truck in Austria and the drowned body of three-year-old Syrian Alan Kurdi washed up on a Turkish beach have shocked the West and should weigh heavily on its conscience, given its fundamental role in their misfortune. But the media consistently cloak the responsibility of the West and its proxies for initiating and expanding wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa. The refugees are in fact fleeing the horrors of the American and NATO war zones. According to a report from the United Nations Children’s Fund, some 170,000 unaccompanied and separated children, mostly Muslims, applied for asylum in Europe in 2015 and 2016. Some 2.6 million Syrian children are living as refugees or on the run in search of safety, helping to fuel a global migrant crisis. Syria is now the world’s biggest producer of both internally displaced people and refugees. Instead of signing an agreement with Turkey (three billion euros to prevent the refugees from reaching the E.U.), the E.U. should have asked NATO and the U.S. to bear the cost—both the domestic political cost and the financial cost—of the endless flow of refugees that their pursuit of hegemonic dominance have created.
The brutal violence exhibited now in Barcelona, Manchester, London, Paris, Nice, Beirut, Aleppo, Damas, Tel-Aviv and elsewhere by combatants in the jihadi movement has grown out of this heritage. Terrorism feeds off this violence. The French, the Israeli, as well as the American explanation for terrorism, a multi-purpose term covering armed insurrections, rebellions, and resistance movements against occupational forces, is not convincing. Investigations of the issue, such as that by Michael Bond, who studied 500 suicide attacks and published his findings in the British journal New Scientist, underscore the absence of fanaticism, religious extremism or poverty in the great majority of cases. What is highlighted instead are motives driven by dramas in the perpetrators’ personal lives or by injustice and humiliation they have suffered, engendering a desire for vengeance and an openness to indoctrination within the tight-knit community of a brotherhood and in contact with incendiary preachers.
Islamophobia will arouse increasingly violent reactions in the Muslim world. Beyond the issues that have nourished the debate on Islam in Western societies there is a real increase in anti-Muslim discrimination and Islamophobic acts that fueled extreme reactions from the “beurs”, the youth Muslims with a French passport. For a number of them hatred of Western societies has become a badge of honor.
Just as the killings at the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo were a chronicle foretold, given the insults and obscenities circulated by this satirical magazine against a religion that constitutes, in many countries and in the disinherited suburbs of the major French and British cities, the only moral support, the only source of dignity, for marginalized and humiliated communities, the terrorist attacks in Barcelona, Manchester, London, Nice, and Paris are also a chronicle foretold, an expected blowback of Western militarism and adventurism in the Middle East and their overly prolonged inability to redeem their past and integrate the growing population of young Islamic people.
Since it is illegal in France to collect statistics on ethnicity or religion, official statistics are impossible to come by, but according to Azouz Begag, former Minister in the Villepin government (2005-2007), a son of Algerian parents, less that 15% of France’s population are Muslim but 70% of French detainees are Muslim. Unemployment among young French of Algerian origin runs well over five times the national average. According to the former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, 1,573 young French Muslims went to fight in Syria: how many returned to France? A report from the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, The Hague from April 2016, showed that there were between 700-760 Islamist foreign fighters from the United Kingdom thereand around 100 women and 50  children. Over 400 of them have returned to the U.K.; most are imprisoned, or disappeared.With no fundamental changes in the complex causes driving their engagement, one might fear the resilience of jihadi ideals among many of them. Considered criminals and judged accordingly in France, with the exception of their children, whom the French state has seemed willing to treat with a certain lenience, when these jihadis are released from prison, somehow with vengeance, will they still follow the tragic path of their mentors and models issuing from the sinister Camp Bucca? Or, taken in, guided, and reeducated as in Denmark, will they choose to reintegrate into society and shed their tragic past and atone for their failings?
With such appalling figures and the concentration of jobless young Muslims on welfare in forgotten neighborhoods ruled by the drug economy and delinquency such as Birmingham, where more than one in five residents declare Islam as their religion, or Trappes, where seventy percent are Muslims, not to mention the dramatic inheritance of the colonial war conducted by France in Algeria (a quarter million Algerians killed) and the fiasco in Libya initiated by former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, we would have expected a much more cautious British and French foreign policy on Muslim lands. But Sarkozy’s successor, François Hollande, decided in August 2014 to join the American forces in bombing Iraq and Syria, which has had everything to do with the emergence of ISIL and resurgence of Al-Qaeda in those lands. And the young newly elected French president, Emmanuel Macron, has appointed Hollande’s minister of defense, Jean-Yves Le Drian, as France’s chief diplomat.
Prior to the French, U.K., and U.S.–led bombing campaign in 2011, Libya had the highest Human Development Index, the lowest infant mortality, and the highest life expectancy in all Africa. When I visited the country in 1994 with Pierre Cardin it was a model for public health and education, and boasted the highest per capita income in Africa. It was clearly the most advanced of all Arab countries in terms of the legal status of women and families in Libyan society (half of the students at the university of Tripoli were women). Libya is now a wrecked country. Britain, France, and the United States effectively destroyed Libya as a modern state. Libya has become a hub for illegal trafficking, particularly of African emigrants under conditions reminiscent of the slave trade. Under Gaddafi, Islamic terrorism was virtually non-existent. The destruction of the country had led to the rise of Islamic State in North Africa. Advanced weaponry from Libya has found its way to Mali, where an ethnic insurgency twinned with extremist al-Qaeda-linked militias has shattered one of Africa’s most stable democracies. Rachid Redouane, one of the three London Bridge terrorists, was a British citizen from Libya.The U.K. government actually encouraged the Libyan exiles to go back to Libya to participate in the overthrow of Gaddafi. Many of the foreign fighters in the Libyan civil war came from Manchester, among them the Manchester Arena suicide bomber, the 22-year-old British Muslim Salman Abedi (on May 22, 2017, twenty-three adults and children were killed and 250 were injured).
Concerns about such tactics have been amplified since Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States. The U.S. president has dramatically increased drone strikes and special operations raids, while simultaneously loosening battlefield rules and seeking to scrap constraints intended to prevent civilian deaths in such attacks, confirmed in his August 21, 2017 address: “I have already lifted restrictions the previous administration placed on our war fighters that prevented the secretary of defense and our commanders in the field from fully and swiftly waging battle against the enemy.”
In this address, Trump declared that the United States would be maintaining and expanding its military presence in Afghanistan with a very clear goal: “Not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists.”
Looking at the U.S., French, and British responses to the horrific terrorists attacks in Barcelona, Madrid, London, New York, Paris, Manchester, Nice, and London, and listening to president Trump’s new strategy (“We will ask our NATO allies and global partners to support our new strategy, with additional troop and funding increases in line with our own”,one must be forgiven for wondering what such a response seeks to and can accomplish.
U.S. and NATO military intervention in the Middle East has done more to provoke extremism than to stanch it. Widespread and profound resentment is growing among young Western Muslims towards the occupying or invading powers, who are held responsible for the distress of the populations facing growing insecurity and compelled to emigrate in humiliating conditions.
Muslims populations have been relegated to the backdrop of the conflicts, in desperate need of nation building (social infrastructure, education, security, healthcare, housing). Ramadi, Kobani, Fallujah, Mosul—Iraq’s second largest city—, and Raqqa have been reduced to rubble after months of merciless bombardment by the U.S.-led war coalition. Mosul, once Iraq’s cultural jewel and model of religious co-existence, is now a “city of corpses”, as described by English news correspondent at RT International, Murad Gazdiev, who walked through the ruins: “You’ve probably heard of thousands killed, the civilian suffering. What you likely haven’t heard of is the smell. It’s nauseating, repulsive, and it’s everywhere—the smell of rotting bodies—hundreds of corpses still buried under the rubble, mostly women and children.” More than 40,000 civilians were killed in the devastating battle to retake Mosul from ISIL, according to intelligence reports. The notorious remark of a U.S. officer about the town of Ben Tre in Vietnam 50 years ago—that “it became necessary to destroy the town to save it” —could equally be applied to Ramadi, Fallujah, Mosul, Raqqa and to so many towns and villages in Yemen and in Gaza.
How can the major Western military powers and Israel, who have caused the humiliation and grief of millions of refugees and emigrants, principally Muslims – including thousands of traumatized, orphaned children and adolescents –  prevent terrorist attacks fomented on their own soil by their own Muslim nationals led astray by a suicidal but solidary radicalism, if they continue in their denial of blowback from their military adventurism and arms exports?

Afghanistan is Collapsing. Get Out: Now!

Brian Cloughley

November has been quite a month, so far, in Afghanistan.  The level of violence has been appalling and the most serious recent atrocity was yet another suicide bombing in Kabul. It killed over fifty people and injured twice that many but didn’t merit a Trump tweet, which isn’t surprising because he doesn’t seem to be interested in the place.  Further, as reported by the Washington Post on November 19, he hasn’t visited a single country in which his troops are fighting.
The reason he hasn’t visited his troops in such areas is because he is a coward.  He is a physical yellow-belly who lacks the courage to go anywhere near a war zone.  He is below contempt, but he could gain a little bit of respect if he ordered the US and NATO to get out of Afghanistan.
Early in November the New York Times summed up the shambles in Afghanistan by stating
In the past week, the Times confirmed that 118 members of the security forces were killed, a significant increase over the previous week, but, unusually, there were no confirmed deaths of civilians. Fighting spread to nine provinces, but the emphasis shifted to the south as cold weather intensified in the north. An entire battalion of Afghan border soldiers was wiped out in western Farah Province, and the Taliban tried — unsuccessfully so far — to take over Jaghori District in Ghazni, an anti-insurgent stronghold.
On November 3 yet another US soldier was killed by a member of Afghanistan’s military forces.  Major Brent Taylor of the Utah National Guard was instructing Afghan soldiers when one of them shot him dead.  He left a wife and seven young children. On the same day, as reported by the New York Times, twenty Afghan soldiers were reported missing after a Taliban attack in Uruzgan Province, and on November 5, six policemen and seven soldiers were killed in Ghazni, two Afghan Humvees were blown up, 17 policemen were killed in Kandahar Province and seven soldiers in Herat.
Seven soldiers were killed on November 7, two of them in Nangarhar Province in an airstrike by United States aircraft while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was visiting foreign troops in Herat. The following day seventeen soldiers were killed along with eight policemen.
After the NYT’s report that no civilians had been killed in the first week, the situation changed dramatically and the Taliban killed 15 civilians and 10 members of the special forces in Ghazni on November 11, then “In the western province of Farah, at least 37 members of the Afghan security forces were killed in overnight attacks by Taliban fighters on checkpoints that triggered hours of fighting, local officials said on November 12.”  That was the day that a loonie of Islamic State killed at least six civilians and wounded 20 others in a suicide bombing in Kabul.
Stoltenberg told foreign soldiers in Herat they “have to remember that you are in Afghanistan because NATO is in Afghanistan to make sure that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for international terrorism.  So this is about helping the Afghans but also about helping ourselves.  It is in our security interest to make sure that Afghanistan not once again becomes a platform, a territory, a country where terrorist organizations can prepare, plan attacks against our own countries.”
This is fallacious nonsense, but he’s got to say it because there is no real reason for the NATO presence in Afghanistan.  In the words of the World War One dirge sung by British soldiers in France, “We’re here, because we’re here, because we’re here . . .”
They got there because the United States was hell-bent on war. And this war has had a most significant and disastrous spin-off  that the drum-thumpers didn’t think about. It has shown the world that there has been yet another war which the US couldn’t and can’t win.
The foreign soldiers killed in Afghanistan — almost 3,500 of them, including 1,892 American combatants — have died for nothing.  The entire war has been a disgraceful catastrophe, and as I recorded in Counterpunch in 2012, the US-NATO fiasco was well described by US Colonel David Davis:
The United States, along with over 40 NATO and other allied nations, possesses the most sophisticated, powerful, and technologically advanced military force that has ever hit the field of combat. We have the finest and most well trained soldiers that exist anywhere; we have armored vehicles of every type, to include MIA2 Main Battle Tanks; artillery, mortars, advanced rockets, precision guided missiles, and hand-held rocket launchers; we have a wholly uncontested air force composed of NATO’s most advanced ground attack fighter jets, bombers, AWACS controllers, spy planes, signals-interception aircraft, B 1 bombers, attack helicopters, and massive transport jets to ferry our troops and critical supplies where they are needed; we have thousands of unmanned aerial drones both for intelligence collection and missile-launching; we have a helicopter fleet for personnel transport and attack support; we have an enormous constellation of spy satellites; logistics that are as limitless as the combined weight of the industrial world; we have every technological device known to the profession of arms; we are able to intercept virtually every form of insurgent communication to include cell phones, walkie-talkies, satellite phones, email, and even some ability to eavesdrop on otherwise private conversations; a remarkably capable cohort of intelligence analysts that are as educated, well trained and equipped to a degree that used to exist only in science fiction;  and our various nations have the economic wherewithal to spend $10s of billions each month to fund it all. And for almost 10 years we have pitted this unbelievable and unprecedented capability against:  A bunch of dudes in bed sheets and flip-flops.
Remember the idiot General Petraeus? In 2010 he declared “We must demonstrate to the people and to the Taliban that Afghan and International Security Assistance Forces are here to safeguard the Afghan people and that we are in this to win. That is our clear objective.”
But they lost. And there’s no point in reinforcing failure.  US-NATO forces failed to follow almost every Principle of War, and they paid the price.
Get the hell out of Afghanistan.  Now.

Business as Usual: Washington’s Regime Change Strategy in Venezuela

Garry Leech

For those who have been following Venezuela closely in recent years there is a distinct sense of déjà vu regarding US foreign policy towards that South American nation. This is because Washington’s strategy of regime change in Venezuela is almost identical to the approach it has taken in Latin America on numerous occasions since World War Two. This strategy involves applying economic sanctions, extensive support for the opposition, and destabilization measures that create a sufficient degree of human suffering and chaos to justify a military coup or direct US military intervention. Because this strategy has worked so well for the United States for more than half a century, our elected leaders see no reason not to use it regarding Venezuela. In other words, from Washington’s perspective, its regime change policies towards Venezuela constitute business as usual in Latin America.
Despite US rhetoric, this regime change strategy does not take into account whether or not a government is democratically elected or the human rights consequences of such interventions. In fact, virtually all of the Latin American governments that the United States has successfully overthrown over the past 65 years were democratically elected. Among the democratically-elected leaders that have been ousted were Jacobo Arbenz in Guatemala (1954), Salvador Allende in Chile (1973), Jean Bertrand Aristide in Haiti (2004) and Manuel Zelaya in Honduras (2009). Washington targeted all these leaders with economic sanctions and destabilization campaigns that created the economic chaos and humanitarian crises required to justify a military solution.
The common denominator in all those cases had nothing to do with democracy or human rights, it was the fact that those elected governments had the audacity to challenge US interests in the region. The fact that a Latin American government might prioritize the interests of its own people over US needs is unacceptable in Washington. This attitude was exhibited by CIA director George Tenet during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in February 2002 when he arrogantly declared that Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez “probably doesn’t have the interests of the United States at heart.” Two months later, Washington supported a military coup that attempted to overthrow the Venezuelan leader.
The failed military coup was the first major US-backed attempt to oust President Chavez following his election victory in 1998. Following the coup, Washington continued its efforts to install a government in Venezuela that would have the “interests of the United States at heart.” It ramped up its support for opposition groups through increased funding for USAID programs in the country with the objective of turning people against the government. Wikileaks published a classified cable sent from the US embassy in Venezuela to Washington in 2006 that stated USAID funding for local programs seeks to influence community leaders by “moving them slowly away from Chavismo.” The cable also declared that the embassy’s broader objectives include “Isolating Chavez internationally.”
In 2015, President Obama signed a presidential order ludicrously stating that Venezuela posed an “extraordinary threat to the national security” of the United States. The order was required under US law for the Obama administration to impose sanctions. Two years later, President Donald Trump stated that he would not rule out a “military option” for Venezuela. He also intensified the sanctions in order to make it more difficult for the government to address the country’s economic crisis. According to economist Mark Weisbrot:
The sanctions do their damage primarily by prohibiting Venezuela from borrowing or selling assets in the US financial system. They also prohibit CITGO, the US-based fuel industry company that is owned by the Venezuelan government, from sending dividends or profits back to Venezuela. In addition, if Venezuela wanted to do a debt restructuring, so as to reduce debt service during the current crisis, it would be unable to do this because it wouldn’t be able to issue new bonds.
Because the sanctions prohibit Venezuela’s state-owned company CITGO from sending its profits home, the Venezuelan government is losing $1 billion a year in revenues. Ultimately, the sanctions are imposing greater hardship on the Venezuelan people because, as Weisbrot notes, they “exacerbate shortages of food, medicine, and other essential goods while severely limiting the policy options available to pull the country out of a deep depression.”
Earlier this month, President Trump turned the screws even more by signing an executive order imposing sanctions on gold exports from Venezuela. The South American nation contains one of the world’s largest gold reserves and has turned to selling some of its gold as a means of addressing the economic crisis. One week after Trump issued his decree, Britain complied with the new sanctions by refusing to handover 14 tons of gold bars worth $550 million to Venezuela. This gold belongs to Venezuela and is simply being stored in the vaults of the Bank of England. As is the case with CITGO’s profits, Venezuela simply wants what is rightfully its own.
The fact that the United States and Britain feel they have the right to decide what Venezuela can and cannot do with its own assets and reserves illustrates the imperialist arrogance of these two nations. These latest US sanctions and Britain’s refusal to hand over Venezuela’s gold further restricts the Venezuelan government’s capacity to address the country’s economic crisis.
And then, earlier this week, it was revealed that the Trump administration is considering adding Venezuela to the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, which would automatically trigger even harsher sanctions. Labeling Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism is as ludicrous as Obama declaring the country to be an “extraordinary threat” to US national security. One US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted that it would be very difficult to provide any proof that Venezuela sponsors terrorism. That is because it doesn’t! But the US has never needed proof to intervene in another country, with Iraq and its supposed weapons of mass destruction being the obvious example. Such a move also illustrates the lengths to which Washington is willing to go to demonize and bully weaker countries that refuse to play by its rules.
US regime change policies are being coordinated with the opposition in Venezuela, which mostly consists of the country’s wealthy elites who ran the country prior to the election of Hugo Chavez. The socialist policies of former President Chavez and current President Nicolas Maduro have infringed on the privileges enjoyed by these domestic elites and by foreign oil companies. In response, the country’s wealthy opposition, who still dominate economic activity, have sought to sabotage the economy by scaling back production and by exporting much-needed basic necessities to neighboring Colombia.
Despite its wealth and economic power, the Venezuelan opposition needs the support of the most powerful nation in the world because it cannot win at the ballot box. Since 1998, in election after election, Venezuelans have overwhelmingly supported presidents Chavez and Maduro at the polls. These elections have been monitored by international observers and have repeatedly been deemed free and fair. One famous election observer, former US President Jimmy Carter, stated: “As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I would say that the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world.”
The US mainstream media is playing its customary and crucial propaganda role with regard to Venezuela by ensuring that the public only hears the official Washington narrative. This narrative seeks to demonize the Venezuelan government and has repeatedly labeled Chavez and Maduro as “undemocratic,” “authoritarian” and, ludicrously, as “dictators.” The media has also focused attention on food shortages and a “humanitarian crisis” that is resulting in Venezuelans leaving the country rather than the incredible social achievements in poverty reduction, education, housing for the poor and participatory democracy.
Meanwhile, the fact that more than five million people in neighboring Colombia were forcibly displaced from their homes by violence over the past couple of decades barely registered a blip on the mainstream media radar. Nor has the fact that more than 4,000 indigenous Wayuu children have died from malnutrition in Northern Colombia over the past decade. We don’t hear about these humanitarian crises because the Colombian government is a friendly regime that serves US interests—as are many other authoritarian allies whose human rights violations are conveniently ignored by the mainstream media.
As mentioned earlier, Washington’s regime change strategy in Venezuela is nothing new. In fact, it is virtually a carbon copy of previous regime change efforts in Latin America. One classic example occurred in Chile after socialist candidate Salvador Allende was elected president in 1970. The Nixon administration’s National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger foreshadowed the arrogance that CIA director Tenet would exhibit decades later when he made his thoughts on the election clear: “I don’t see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people. The issues are much too important for the Chilean voters to be left to decide for themselves.” And so, the Nixon administration set about destabilizing the country with policies that sought to, as one cabinet member stated, “make the Chilean economy scream.”
For 18 months, the CIA clandestinely funded businesses, shop owners and truck drivers to shut down and go on strike, successfully making the “economy scream” by causing hardships for the Chilean people who had to endure mass shortages of basic necessities. Declassified documents reveal that the United States also provided funding and weapons to opposition groups in Chile while CIA operatives worked with Chilean military officers who were planning a coup to overthrow President Allende. By 1973, Chile had been destabilized sufficiently to justify a military coup. Once in power, the coup leader, General Augusto Pinochet, reversed many of Allende’s policies that had hurt the interests of the country’s elites and US corporations. He also ruled Chile as a dictator for the next 18 years with Washington’s backing as he turned the country into a human rights catastrophe.
A similar process unfolded in Haiti following the election of Catholic priest Jean Bertrand Aristide to the presidency in 2000. His political party Fanmi Lavalas was by far the most popular in Haiti and gained a significant majority in the country’s parliament. As the elected leader of the hemisphere’s most impoverished country, Aristide implemented policies that benefitted the poor in the areas of healthcare, education and low-cost housing. He also doubled the minimum wage, which infringed on the profits garnered by US, Canadian and French companies operating in the country. Washington and its imperialist allies responded by imposing economic sanctions on Haiti while simultaneously funding opposition groups in the country. USAID managed much of the opposition funding and actively campaigned against the raising of the minimum wage. Aristide also faced a campaign of violence waged by paramilitary groups that were funded by France and Haiti’s economic elites. Declassified documents revealed that these armed groups also maintained a relationship with the United States.
In 2004, with the country reduced to chaos following three years of economic sanctions and paramilitary violence, the United States, Canada and France deployed troops to Haiti to overthrow the government. US Marines seized President Aristide and his wife in the presidential palace and transported them to the international airport, which had been secured by Canadian troops. The Haitian president was forced to resign from office and flown with his wife to Africa. The United States then installed a Haitian businessman who lived in Miami as the new unelected president. With the country existing under foreign military occupation, the new president reversed most of the policies implemented by Aristide, imprisoned thousands of opponents and banned Fanmi Lavalas, the most popular political party in the country.
The current US foreign policy towards Venezuela clearly replicates policies implemented in past decades that successfully ousted governments in Latin America. From Washington’s perspective, it makes perfect sense to implement policies that undermine a democratically-elected government in order to achieve regime change when that government prioritizes the needs of its own people over those of the US economy and multinational corporations. The strategy worked in Chile. It worked in Haiti. And it also worked in the other aforementioned Latin American countries. The United States has no qualms about undermining democracy and imposing economic hardships on Latin Americans yet again, this time with the Venezuelan people the target in order to achieve regime change in that country. After all, a country isn’t democratic unless its government has “the interests of the United States at heart.”

Go ahead, rename India itself

Aijaz Zaka Syed

Can you change the past by changing the present? Would Hinduising Faizabad, Allahabad, Ahmedabad, Aurangabad, Hyderabad and so many other great Indian cities help wipe out the country’s rich Islamic past? After all, every inch of the land carries the unmistakable imprint of the rich Muslim contribution to the great Indian civilization.
Ironically, this ire against India’s former rulers pointedly ignores the exploitative role of the British and historic injustices meted out by our last colonial masters. The manufactured Bengal famine alone killed 3 million people, not to mention tens of thousands brutally killed for standing up to the British during the first war of independence in 1857.
Yet the saffron fury is solely directed against the 1000-year long Muslim rule. This notwithstanding the fact that unlike the British, who conquered the world only to plunder and pillage it, the Mughals and other Muslim dynasties made India their home. They loved this land and its evidence lies in every part of this beautiful country. But then this had never been about an accurate understanding of history. This is about power and this “reinventing” of India spree suits the BJP’s narrative of Hindu victimhood, presumably earning it the support and votes of the majority.
Will this mindless obsession to paint India saffron and wipe out its Islamic past help solve any of the country’s myriad problems though? But then that’s the whole point of the exercise. The renaming fad, at a staggering cost to the exchequer, is the opium that would help a billion people forget their immediate woes and feel instantly good about themselves and the country.
This is about making ‘us’ feel potent and powerful and showing ‘them’ who calls the shots. This is the shortest route to reflected glory.
No cost is too great when such exercises in political expediency can be useful distractions. But why now?
Only weeks ago, six months before the General Elections, this government was seen as having reached its tether — the economy in meltdown; unemployment at its worst, farmers killing themselves in their thousands and scams like Rafale blowing up in the face of someone who vowed ad nauseam ‘na khaunga, na khane doonga’ (I’m not corrupt and won’t tolerate corruption).
Virtually every institution, from the Supreme Court to the Reserve Bank of India to Central Bureau of Investigation — critical to the wellbeing of the republic — is unravelling at the hands of the saffron clique.
Opposition parties are also finally getting their act together after waking up to the threats, not just to the republic but their own survival. The dramatic victory of the Congress-Janata Dal coalition in Karnataka by-polls last week sent a strong message to the BJP and the rest of the country while reminding the opposition it could take on the BJP if it stayed united.
All that has now been relegated to the background as the whole country stares, as if in a trance, at the colourful balloon sent up by the clever apparatchiks and spinmeisters of the Parivar.
Modi and company sit back and enjoy as a billion people work themselves up into a tizzy earnestly debating the old and new names of cities in question and their etymology.
There are few who think like Kirti Deolekar who in her tweet has slammed the renaming spree as the “height of insecurity and idiocy.” Another angry citizen on Twitter, a resident of Faizabad (now called Ayodhya) has called out the BJP for turning “a melting pot of diversity into a microwave of hate.”
These are solitary voices of reason in an increasingly dark and depressing landscape. Coupled with the boiling cauldron of the Ram temple, this renaming exercise, the Parivar hopes, may once again help it reap a windfall in the ongoing elections in 5 states and General Elections next year.
Things have already been heating up on the Ayodhya front. Top RSS-BJP-VHP leaders, including central ministers, openly threaten the Supreme Court, demanding a favourable verdict in the “interest of Hindu sentiments.” The highest court in the land is being pushed to “respect the Hindu sentiments.” Or else…
In other words, justice must be administered not on the basis of the merits of the case or the Constitution but because the majority says so!
Some others favour bringing in a new law granting the land where Babri Masjid once stood to the Hindus. Then there are others who are more candid as they ask the Muslims to just give up their claim on the mosque site demonstrating their “respect for the Hindu sentiments.”
Having razed your house to the ground, the neighbourhood bully now wants you to hand him over the land respecting his sentiments!
One doesn’t quite know whether to laugh or cry over the state of the nation.
Meanwhile, an excited media announces the good news that 50% of the carving work on pillars of the Ayodhya temple is completed. The media long ago gave up pretending to be an objective observer. Many TV hosts see no irony in backing the hotheads’ calls to the SC demanding the verdict they want.
Not to be left behind, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath has promised a magnificent statue of Lord Ram at the entrance of the temple town.
This is a simple yet successful formula — one that has repeatedly helped the BJP swell its ranks, mutating from a 2-member outfit to the largest political party in the country.
Floundering on all fronts and running out of ideas, it is but natural that it should go back to its original agenda of spreading sweetness and light, fanning an absurd sense of insecurity in the majority against a voiceless minority. As a matter of fact, the agenda never changes; only tactics to play, underplay and obfuscate it do according to the demands of the situation.
And right now, painted into a corner by a resurgent Congress and cocky Rahul Gandhi who just wouldn’t shut up about the Rafale scam, touted to be the biggest in history, and incredible mismanagement of the economy and runaway inflation, the Parivar has concluded that only Lord Ram and stark religious polarisation can rescue it.
What’s most unfortunate about this whole business is that the Parivar gets away with this brazen exploitation of religious sentiments in the world’s largest democracy, again and again. This despite the fact that the Constitution expressly forbids the use of religion in politics under Section 123 (3) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
Yet the BJP has repeatedly flouted it by playing on the beliefs of a deeply religious society. Indeed, its whole worldview is based on the exclusivist Hindutva doctrine in which minorities, especially the Muslims, have no place. The very raison d’etre of the RSS, BJP’s mothership, is open hostility for all things Muslim. Yet successive governments, especially those of the Congress, treated it with kid gloves, allowing the BJP to grow to monstrous proportions at their own expense.
The Election Commission and the courts also looked the other way as the BJP went about peddling hate and bigotry, deliberately dismantling the secular fabric of the country. Today, the party and its Parivar have emerged as the greatest threat to the idea of India itself. The Congress and secular parties have to blame no one but themselves for this state of affairs. The day is not far when they may rename India itself.

2018 Bangladesh General Election: An invitation to furthering volatility?

M. Adil Khan

The 2018 Bangladesh General Election scheduled on December 30, 2018 marks the end of two consecutive terms of the ruling Awami League (AL), first ever by any political party since 1991, the year when parliamentary democracy was re-introduced in the country through a mass movement against a military dictatorship.
AL’s decade long rule has witnessed both good and bad.
During this period Bangladesh has experienced remarkable economic growth. It is now on its way to transiting from low-middle income to middle-income country status by 2021. This is significant given that Bangladesh has no resources worth the name and is also challenged by a burgeoning population of 165 million and counting,confined in an area of 147,570 km² -here is an interesting comparison, if we put the entire population of the world in Australia, we would get the same population density per square Km as that of  Bangladesh’s.
Bangladesh’s development has also been balanced – it has reduced poverty and made significant progress in health, education and gender development, surpassing some of the major countries of the sub-continent.
So far so good. But sadly, past decade has also seen ever worsening rule of law, trampling of the judiciary, repression of opposition, rampant corruption, arbitrary arrests and enforced disappearances of people including some prominent opposition and civil society leaders, near absence of accountability and transparency in public expenditure, erosion of freedom and rising authoritarianism. These and more recently violent repression of student movements seems to have plummeted government’s popularity somewhat.
Some argue that the governance backslide of the last two terms of Awami League has morphed into a ‘hybrid’ governing arrangement that thrives in an interconnected way, on populism and patronage distribution and authoritarianism where most institutions including Parliament, the highest law-making body of the country have been turned into ‘minimum institutions’ reducing their capacity to discharge their lawmaking, legislative and administrative oversight functions,effectively and impartially. These governance setbacks threaten sustainability and overshadow much of the government’s good developmental deeds.
It is in the backdrop of these contradictory scenario of good and bad performances of the ruling Awami league that the 2018 General Election has been scheduled in December this year.
Given Awami League’s stellar record on development, it was expected that it would depart from the 2014 type of sham election which in the face of wholesale opposition boycott was virtually no-election and the ‘win’ was anything but legitimate. Many thought that this time around AL would be more confident and commit itself to a free, fair and competitive election and get itself elected through genuine peoples’ mandate.
Alas this is not to be. In keeping with its hammer-and-nail predicament(if are a hammer you see the world as nails) AL started its election process by rebuffing Opposition’s demand for a dialogue to agree on enabling conditions for a free and fair election but later, relented and met with the leadership of the united front of the opposition (Oyikto Jot),headed by an eminent jurist, Dr. Kamal Hussain. The Jot isa collection of several opposition parties that include among others,the main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which is headed by Begum Khaleda Zia, a two-time prime minister of Bangladesh who is currently serving time in a Dhaka jail on corruption charges. Given her popularity, many believe Begum Zia’s imprisonment is politically motivated.
The Jot has submitted 7-point demand as the preferred framework for holding of a free and fair election. Among these,the key demands are release of Begum Zia, dissolution of the parliament and installation of a poll-time non-party neutral government. So far government has not conceded to any of the 7-point demands except that in break with its past position,it has allowed the opposition to hold meetings and rallies in public places. But these meetings regularly encounter familiar violence from the ruling party’s activists, allegedly, with police connivance.
Furthermore, as the Jot has started to gain momentum,repression, arbitrary arrests and harassment of its leaders and activists by the highly polticised police, bureaucracy, judiciary and the ruling party street thugs have also become common occurrences at the pre-election campaign period.  According to BNP, 773 of its workers have been arrested and locked up and thousands have been slapped with court cases in last one month.In addition, restrictions have also been put on Opposition’s, mainly BNP’s use of skypes and internets.
Election Commission, which is expected to guarantee level playing field to all contesting parties is fraught and this is not unexpected because as per a recent Transparency International report the Commission, a constitutional body has “virtually no control over ….government structure during election, government influence on setting election schedule, dependence on the government for law reform and for conducting election.”
However, since every election ‘win’ needs has to have an opposition and the ruling party is fully aware of this requirement, another combined opposition group, alternative to Jot,made up of handful of signboard-only parties with virtually no public following headed by an octogenarian former President has suddenly emerged in the scene, or shall we say, is being readied to play the role of an ‘opposition’ in the election and also in the post-election legislature similar to the role played in 2014 election by another so-called opposition, Jatiyo Party,also headed by another deposed and much discredited former president.
Let us now turn to another interesting dimension of this election – no discussion on Bangladesh election is complete without discussing the role of India.India has become unusually active in Bangladesh elections since 2009 especially when it realized that it needed a partner in Bangladesh that guarantees its hegemonic security, economic and trade needs, unremittingly with disproportionate, favours. AL filled that slot happily and has remained India’s pick in Bangladesh ever since.
India’s declared position on this year’s election that it would not interfere in Bangladesh’s“internal affairs”which is in stark contrast to its position of 2009 and 2014 elections that ranged from subtle manipulation to blatant engineering respectively, has to be viewed in the above context, with a magnifying glass.
On the face of it India’s position looks rather innocuous but if one deciphers carefully one would see that its position of treating this election as an “internal affair of Bangladesh” is nothing but a ploy to shy away from demanding a free, fair and credible election and giving the ruling party a free hand to ‘win.’It wants AL in power because in recent times in exchange of mutual favours, AL government has successfully structurally aligned most of Bangladesh’s institutions to favour India with disproportionate concessions and the same time, by ruthlessly suppressing the opposition,AL has also demonstrated to India that in Bangladesh it is its most willing and enduring partner.
In sum, given the internal conditions of unfreedom where playing field is grossly potholed for the opposition and by adopting a see-no-evil-hear-no-evil policy the external entity that has had the capacity to make a difference but chose not to,an AL ‘win’in the upcoming election is a foregone conclusion.But the question that may be asked whether by not testing the will of the people and going for another fabricated win all over again is in the best interest of the ruling party, the country and its key external partner because a doctored election is not a docket for credible victory nor a guarantee of stability but an invitation to furthering volatility and instability in the country!

Chinese consulate attack puts Pakistan between a rock and a hard place

James M. Dorsey

Two attacks in Pakistan, including a brazen assault on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, are likely to complicate prime minister Imran Khan’s efforts to renegotiate China’s massive, controversial Belt and Road investments as well as an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout and ensure that Pakistan is shielded from blacklisting by an international anti-money laundering and terrorism finance watchdog.
The attack on the consulate by three members of the Balochistan Liberation Army, a militant nationalist group seeking what it terms self-determination for the troubled, resource-rich, sparsely populated Pakistani province that constitutes the heartland of China’s US$45 billion investment and the crown jewel of its infrastructure and energy generation-driven Belt and Road initiative.
With Pakistan teetering on the edge of a financial crisis, Mr. Khan has been seeking financial aid from friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as a bailout from the IMF.
Responding to widespread criticism of Chinese investment terms that go beyond Baloch grievances, Mr. Khan is seeking to renegotiate the Chinese terms as well as the priorities of what both countries have dubbed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that will link the crucial Baloch port of Gwadar with China’s troubled north-western province of Xinjiang, the scene of a brutal crackdown on Turkic Muslims.
Mr. Khan last month bought some relief by attending Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s showcase investors conference in Riyadh, dubbed Davos in the Desert, that was being shunned by numerous CEOs of Western financial institutions, tech entrepreneurs and media moguls as well as senior Western government officials because of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
However, Mr. Khan’s visit to Beijing earlier this month was less conclusive. Despite lofty words and the signing of a raft of agreements, Mr. Khan’s visit failed to produce any immediate cash relief with China insisting that more talks were needed.
China signalled its irritation at Mr. Khan’s declared intention to pressure China to change the emphasis of CPEC by sending only its transportation minister to receive the prime minister upon his arrival.
Amid criticism of CPEC by Baloch activists who charge that the province’s local population has no stake in the project and members of the business community who chafe at China importing materials needed for projects from China rather than purchasing them locally and largely employing Chinese rather than Pakistani nationals, Mr. Khan only elicited vague promises for his demand that the focus of CPEC on issues such as job creation, manufacturing and agriculture be fast forwarded.
China’s refusal to immediately bail Pakistan out has forced Mr. Khan to turn to the IMF for help. The IMF, backed by the United States, has set tough conditions for a bailout, including complete disclosure of Chinese financial support.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned in July that any potential IMF bailout should not provide funds to pay off Chinese lenders. US Pakistani relations dived this week with President Donald J. Trump and Mr. Khan trading barbs on Twitter.
The attack on the consulate coupled with Saudi Arabia’s financial support is likely to fuel long-standing Chinese concerns that Pakistan has yet to get a grip on political violence in the country. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in response to the attack that China had asked Pakistan to step up security. Pakistan has a 15,000-man force dedicated to protecting Chinese nationals and assets.
The attack together with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa bombing not only signals a recent spike in political violence in Pakistan but also comes against the backdrop of increased incidents involving Iran’s Kurdish, Iranian Arab and Baloch minorities.
Earlier this month, Pakistan said it had rescued five of 12 abducted Iranian border guards, saying efforts to recover the other captives are ongoing. An anti-Iran Sunni Muslim militant organization, Jaish al-Adl or Army of Justice, kidnapped the guards a month ago in the south-eastern Iranian border city of Mirjaveh and took them to the Pakistani side of the porous frontier between the two countries.
The attack on the consulate as well as the bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to increase pressure from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international anti-money laundering and terrorism finance watchdog, and its Asian counterpart, the Asia Pacific Group (APG) to strengthen Pakistani compliance with international best practices.
An APG delegation expressed its dissatisfaction with Pakistani compliance in October and said it would report its findings to FATF by the end of this month. FATF put Pakistan on a grey list in February, a prelude to blacklisting if the country fails to clean up its act. Blacklisting could potentially derail Pakistan’s request for IMF assistance.
In sum, this week’s attacks put Pakistan between a rock and a hard place. Countering militancy has proven difficult, if not impossible, given the deep-seated links between government, political parties and militants, a web that includes Mr. Khan and many of his associates.