14 Jan 2019

France’s mass “yellow vest” protests continue to grow in 2019

Alex Lantier

Demonstrations by French “yellow vest” protesters on Saturday, January 12, grew again, amid rising opposition among broad layers of the population to President Emmanuel Macron. Interior Ministry sources claimed 84,000 people demonstrated in the ninth straight weekend of mass protests against Macron, compared to 50,000 the week before—figures that, as even the official press noted, seemed to be substantial underestimates.
As the “yellow vest” protesters marched, teachers who have joined “red pen” groups on social media inspired by the “yellow vests” to protest cuts to school funding and living standards by successive French governments also held rallies and marched in several cities across France. The fact that sections of workers are advancing social demands in alliance with the “yellow vests” points to the growing strength of opposition and protest in France. There is also growing awareness of the mounting social struggles in Europe and America.
Protests took place in cities across France. A special protest called in the smaller city of Bourges, near the center of France, went ahead, as over 6,300 “yellow vests” defied a ban from the police prefecture, penetrating the police security perimeter around the center of town. Riot police charged the protesters and made 18 arrests. “Yellow vest” protesters also peacefully escorted BFM-TV reporters away from the city in retaliation for the channel’s attacks on the “yellow vest” movement.
The banner reads, "Popular self-defense"
Mass protests and clashes with police occurred in smaller cities across France. In Nîmes, around 3,000 protesters clashed with riot police, who fired thick clouds of tear gas around the Roman arena and the police prefecture. Over 2,000 “yellow vests” mobilized in Rouen and expelled plainclothes policemen who tried to infiltrate their protest. In Caen, 4,000 protesters rallied and clashed with police around the train station, tearing up train tracks to throw material at the security forces.
In Bordeaux, 10,000 “yellow vests” protested and hundreds clashed with riot police later in the evening around Pey-Berland square. In Toulouse, riot police violently attacked at least 5,000 “yellow vests” who occupied Capitole square. In Lille, a peaceful protest of 3,000 “yellow vests” marched against Macron and Interior Minister Christophe Castaner, shouting “Castaner in prison,” “Macron resign.” In Marseille 3,000 protesters marched along La Canebière and clashed with riot police near the Old Port, while police clashed with 2,600 protesters in Nantes and arrested 15.
In Paris, at least 10,000 “yellow vest” protesters marched in four separate rallies, clashing with riot police around the Arch of Triumph, while “red pen” teachers also held protests in the capital.
WSWS reporters attended the protest at Bastille Square, where thousands of “yellow vests” were marching east into the heart of the city. Protesters shouted “Rise up, Paris,” “Macron resign” and “Release Christophe,” referring to the detention of former professional boxer Christophe Dettinger after he punched riot police attacking a female “yellow vest” protester a week ago.
Philippe
Philippe, a public service worker, said: “Like every week, we want the president to do something on taxation and to improve salaries. Getting the right to decide things via referendum is important, we vote in presidential elections and then for five years they have a green light, they do what they want and tell us to shut up and act like sheep.” He added, “It’s not right that people who paid in 40 years to Social Security get just 800 euros a month, then they’re told they will get housing benefits cut. When you see how the people in the government spend money, it’s a scandal.”
Philippe denounced police repression of the “yellow vest” protests: “I’ve been to all the protests from the beginning, each time we go we get tear gassed. … Then you look at the number of wounded!” Recalling the “yellow vests” who have lost hands to stun grenades or eyes to rubber bullets, Philippe said: “It’s not proportionate violence at all. Rubber bullets are supposed to be fired below the waist. But it’s not legs, but torsos and eyes that have been hit.”
Philippe added that it was now a matter of not just a French but a European struggle against international support for Macron in the ruling elite: “Many people had hopes in Macron when he first came in, he said he would blow up all the political parties. And he only sank us deeper into poverty. One has to say, he worked in finance anyway, they’re all directed by the European Union. Europe is the problem now.”
Asked about solidarity with Ford workers threatened with job losses across Europe and US teachers going on strike, Philippe said: “We’re in solidarity with all those who are oppressed and do not have money. Across Europe we have discussions with ‘yellow vests’ abroad. This could develop into a European movement, I think, that could be more serious and get a lot more people involved. But it’s been eight weeks we’ve been in the street and we’ve gotten nothing.”
Also near Bastille Square, Manu explained to the WSWS why he was protesting: “We pay so many charges, we have nothing left at the end of the month. We’re just the 12th today, already I have nothing left, and I’m working. It’s not just me, it’s everyone, all of France.”
Asked about the role of the trade unions, Manu said he did not see them as different from the ruling parties: “No, no one helps us. We’re alone. They should all get out, that is the only thing to be done. We struggle for months for miserly salaries, they get things for themselves and their families. It’s enough.”
WSWS reporters spoke to Thibault, a physics student and “yellow vest,” on Republic Square. He said, “Our votes are used to legitimize policies we didn’t vote for. What triggered the movement, the basic issue is that over the last decade we’ve seen an explosion of social inequality around the world. In France, dividends paid to shareholders in the companies rose 23 percent, the number of millionaires surged and the Tax on Wealth (ISF) was eliminated.”
Thibault stressed he had no hopes that Macron would change policies: “Police violence is constantly hidden, there are serious wounds, limbs torn off.”
A police water cannon in front of Paris City Hall
He also refuted claims that the “yellow vests” are a right wing movement: “I’ve seen a few people with royalist flags. I would like to think it is a very minority fringe of the movement, as the demands of our movement up until now have precisely been in opposition to what the far right defends today. If people come tell us our problems are caused by immigrants, we don’t want to hear that.”
WSWS reporters also saw “red pen” teachers protest in Paris. Aline mocked government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux’s denunciation of “yellow vests” who broke into his ministry in protest: “I just laugh when I hear people from Griveaux’s ministry complain about their broken-down door, given what we see at our school’s door. I come from Drancy,” a working-class suburb of Paris, “and I’ll invite you to see the state of our schools, holes in the floors and broken doors.”
She added, “In education our wages have been frozen for about 20 years. We’ve lost about 20 percent of our real wages in that many years. Now you start at 1,350 euros per month if you are tenured, less if you’re a contract worker who won’t even get paid during summers … We are seeing in education the labor relations of the private sector.”
Mélanie told the WSWS, “we will have to take the money where it is.” She added, “We have very few resources in our schools, we pay a lot out of pocket. I bring lots of my kids’ toys to school. We buy our own pens, supplies, calendars, paper, ink, we also ask parents to help with photocopying.” She added, “The ‘yellow vests’ motivated us to do something.”
Denouncing criticism of teachers strikes in the media, she said: “We’re not privileged, we’re not lazy. … Starting salaries are under 1400 euros.” She added, “I’ve wanted to be a teacher since elementary school. I had a fantastic teacher … Her dedication to her students stunned me. Since then I knew I wanted to teach, I wanted to help kids in trouble and help make them citizens.”
She added that she saw this as an international issue: “I’ve seen that teachers in the United States are also taking action. It’s necessary, it must be international because it’s not just in France, everywhere it’s basically the same, education is ignored compared to other things. At a certain point it has to stop and I am in solidarity with their struggles.”

12 Jan 2019

Royal Society Africa Prize 2019 for African Scientists

Application Deadline: 28th January 2019 15:00 GMT

Eligible Countries: African countries

About the Award: The Royal Society Africa Prize is to recognise research scientists based in Africa who are making an innovative contribution to the biological sciences, including basic medical science, which contributes significantly to capacity building in Africa.


Type: Award, Research

Eligibility:
  • The Royal Society Africa Prize will be made to an individual for an outstanding, innovative contribution to biological science, including basic medical science, which contributes significantly to capacity building in Africa.
  • The Prize is intended for researchers at an early stage of their research career (usually having received their PhD within the last 10-15 years) with the potential to build a research project to follow on from the prize.
  • The research must be based in Africa.
  • Nominations can be made by senior academics and members of the national academies of science.
  • The project and nominee should be linked with an African centre of excellence, which would normally be a University, or equivalent research centre.
  • Normally the Prize is given to an individual who has not yet reached full Professorship status.
Number of Awards: 1

Value of Award: The winner will receive a bronze medal, accompanied by an £11,000 grant towards their research project and a gift of £1,000.

How to Apply:  Nominate now
  • It is important to go through all application requirements on the Programme Webpage see link below) before applying
Visit Programme Webpage for Details

Kellogg-Morgan Stanley Sustainable Investing Challenge 2019 for International Graduate Students

Application Deadline: 1st February, 2019

Offered annually? Yes

Eligible Countries: Any

To be taken at (country): Teams will be funded to London UK and Los Angeles, USA.

About the Award: The Kellogg-Morgan Stanley Sustainable investing Challenge harnesses the power of capital markets and student creativity to create positive impact in a world of perpetual resource scarcity and continued population growth.
The Challenge seeks to identify the next generation of sustainable finance practitioners, connect emerging leaders with industry professionals, and foster even greater emphasis on sustainability at graduate schools around the world.
The Kellogg-Morgan Stanley Sustainable Investing Challenge seeks to identify outstanding proposals offering novel investment strategies to meet some of the most pressing global challenges ahead. As the world’s population approaches 9 billion people by the year 2050, the challenge of meeting human demand for scarce global resources will intensify. Finance has a key role to play in meeting this challenge.
Moreover, an increasing number of institutional investors are seeking sustainable investment opportunities for their portfolios. Specifically, these investors seek to identify investment strategies that can meet the financial needs of their organizations by investing in funds, investment vehicles, or direct investments that are consistent with the principles of sustainability and impact. Teams are encouraged to think beyond social enterprises, venture capital fund vehicles and strategies.
This competition requires you to propose and defend a sustainable impact investment strategy that uses finance and investment tools to create an innovative solution to an environmental or societal challenge. Integral to this competition are first, that you are creating a financial vehicle, and second, that your financial vehicle will have social impact.
Contestants must propose and defend a strategy that uses finance and investment tools rather than an operating enterprise to address an environmental or societal challenge. The competition is an opportunity to apply core finance principles to target the economic, social and environmental challenges that drive the field of sustainable investing.

Type: Contest

Eligibility: 
  • Graduate students from around the world are invited to participate in the Kellogg-Morgan Stanley Sustainable Investing Challenge.
  • Teams are limited to a maximum of four members, all of whom must be enrolled in a graduate program at the time of the prospectus submission, and the team cannot include more than one member who is pursuing an Executive MBA.
  • A team may include members from different graduate schools. All ideas must be the original ideas of the team members.
  • Each team is required to submit a two-page prospectus outlining their proposal.
  • From the submitted prospectuses, ten teams will be selected to present at the finals competition. At least one team member should be available to present at the finals competition, if the team is chosen to advance to that round, and all team members attending the finals competition should plan to stay for the entire event.
  • Please note that any team member not in attendance at the finals competition will not share in any prizes awarded to that team.
Judging Criteria: The following criteria are applicable to both the first and final rounds of the competition:
  1. Creativity & Financial Innovation (25%)
  2. Impact and scale (25%)
  3. Feasibility (25%)
  4. Quality of due diligence and financials (20%)
  5. Presentation (5%)
Value of Contest: $15,000 in prizes will be awarded to the winning teams. Awards will be made for the overall quality of the proposals based on the judging criteria.
  • Overall First Place:  $10,000
  • Overall Runner-Up:  $5,000
How to Apply:  
  • Two-page prospectuses must be submitted by February 1, 2019, 11:59PM CT. The prospectus should outline a unique sustainable investment strategy. The selection committee is familiar with the broad area of sustainable investing, so avoid overemphasizing general observations about this section of the market.
  • Ten finalist teams will be announced by Feb 25, 2019. These teams will be flown to London and will be provided with two nights of lodging, and are expected to present their proposal at the finals competition
  • Please click on “Submit a Prospectus” to submit your two page prospectus. Remove all identifying student name and school information from the prospectus before submission.
  • GOODLUCK!
It is important to properly go through the Contest Webpage before applying.

Visit Contest Webpage for details


Award Provider: Kellogg School of Management, Morgan Stanley

Swedish Institute She Entrepreneurs Program 2019 for Women in MENA Region

Application Deadline: 5th February 2019.

Eligible Countries: Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine*, Sweden, Syria, Tunisia or Yemen

To be taken at (country): Sweden

About the Award: She Entrepreneurs is a recognised leadership programme for young emerging women social entrepreneurs in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) and Sweden. Intended for women who have already started to build a social business, She Entrepreneurs offers participants a chance to take their social business initiative to a whole new level.
The She Entrepreneurs programme is an intensive programme with a full-day schedule and many evening activities and all selected participants have to commit to participating in all activities of both module 1 and 2.

Type: Entrepreneurship

Offered Since: 2011

Eligibility: To apply to She Entrepreneurs you have to:
  • have the drive, ambition and interest to use social entrepreneurship to implement a social business initiative that you have already started working on
  • your social business initiative should be based and implemented in your country of citizenship or in one of the countries of the She Entrepreneurs programme listed above
  • be between 20 and 36 years old
  • have a good working knowledge of both written and spoken English.
Selection Criteria: A selection committee consisting of staff from the Swedish Institute as well as representatives from partner organisations and field experts evaluates the applications according to the following criteria:
  • applicant’s social business initiative that will be the focus of the programme
  • applicant’s drive, motivation and commitment, as well as her answers to the questions of the She Entrepreneurs application form
  • assessment of the applicant’s CV.
Selection Process: Around 60 shortlisted applicants are called for interviews as a second step in the selection process. The interviews are conducted through Skype. This offer is valid only under the condition that the participant obtains a visa to travel to Sweden. SI will facilitate the visa application process, but cannot guarantee a visa. In recent years, applicants living in conflict-ridden areas have in a few cases seen their visa applications rejected.
She entrepreneurs will accept references who speak English, Arabic and French.

Number of Awardees: Around 28

Value of Programme: She Entrepreneurs participants will build on their knowledge of business elements, from branding to risk-taking. The programme offers a competitive advantage as participants develop their own social business initiative and acquire personal skills and innovative tools.
The programme also allows women entrepreneurs to meet, inspire each other and share experiences on common challenges. Participants will emerge with a strong and active network of likeminded women who support each other in driving important changes in society.

Duration of Programme: A total of two and a half weeks

How to Apply:

Visit Program Webpage for details

UK Government Go Global Africa 2019 for African Entrepreneurs (Fully-funded)

Application Deadline: 30th January 2019 (12 pm)

Eligible Countries: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa

To be taken at (country): UK

About the Award:  The UK Government’s Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport is launching a new International Tech Hub Network in 2019, in partnership with the British High Commission in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. The hubs are one pillar of a broader Digital Access Programme which aims to catalyse digital inclusion across Africa.
This is a fantastic opportunity for start-ups using technology to solve local issues, to participate in an exciting and intensive programme in the UK to learn how to build their business to develop global solutions.

Type: Entrepreneurship

Eligibility: We are currently accepting applications from companies based in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa who meet the following criteria:
  • – Post MVP stage with a live product in the market
  • – Demonstrable evidence of some customer traction
  • – Have not raised more than £2m of investment
  • – Active in fields aimed to create a better future for Africa, with a specific focus on Transport, Energy, Water, Connectivity, Digital Health, Fintech and Agritech.
  • – Led by a founder/s who have a strong sense of commitment and drive to strengthen the local ecosystem for other start-ups to grow and thrive by passing on the learning from this opportunity to their communities and acting as future champions of the Tech Hub’s work.
  • – Ambitions to expand regionally and internationally in the future.
Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award:
  • Travel costs, accommodations and most meals.
  • Successful applicants will be sponsored to join a delegation of ambitious African start-ups to the UK for a 2-week immersive programme in March 2019.
  • The programme will help companies to improve their business skills and capability, build links with the UK’s thriving tech sector and work with UK expertise to take their business to the next level.
Duration of Programme: 
  • 23 March – 4 April 2019
  • The programme will run from Monday to Friday from 9:00 – 17:00 (including 2 evening engagements weekly).
How to Apply: 
  • It is important to go through all application requirements on the Programme Webpage see link below) before applying
Visit Programme Webpage for Details

Microsoft 4Afrika Paid Internships 2019 for Young African Graduates

Application Deadline: 18th January 2019

Eligible Countries: All African countries

To be taken at (country): Internships are available across the African continent

Eligible Fields: There are internships available across the African continent in three distinct areas: sales, marketing and technical and we ask you to apply for one of these paths depending on where your skills and passions are. If you are successful in your application, you will be matched to great roles with Microsoft partners

About the Award: The Interns4Afrika program offers talented young people a unique experience with a dynamic and agile technology organization on the African continent. You will work for 6 months with a Microsoft partner on real projects, collaborating and learning from your colleagues. Whether you’re aspiring for a future in sales, marketing or technology, this is your chance to kick-start your future
To give you the best chance of success 4 weeks of your internship will be dedicated to developing world class business and technical skills. We’ll support you to rapidly develop your capabilities through the (virtual) classroom and the great work you will do.The competition for a place on Interns 4Afrika is tough but if you are entrepreneurial with a passion for technology, are keen to continue learning and have a flexible can-do attitude we want to hear from you. Join us today, and help shape the Africa of tomorrow.

Type: Internship

Eligibility: Apply if:
    • You are able to commit to completing full time internship for 6 months
    • You are currently in education or have graduated from an Undergraduate or Postgraduate course within the last 12 months
    • You have a BA/BSc in a business related or IT degree
  • You are based on the African continent and You have right to work in the country in which you are currently located
Number of Awardees: Not specified

Value of Internship: All interns will be paid a salary and will be located at and employed by the partner organization for the six-month internship period.

Duration of Internship6 months

How to Apply: Select your most suitable internship position and Apply now
Don’t forget to sell yourself on your application form and CV as the competition for this internship is tough!

Visit Internship Webpage for details

Award Provider: Microsoft

Digital Humanities – the perspective of Africa Conference 2019 (Funded to Leiden, The Netherlands)

Application Deadline: 31st January 2019

Eligible Countries: African Countries

To be taken at (country): Leiden, The Netherlands

About the Award: In 2019 the ADHO Digital Humanities conference will take place from 9-12 July in Utrecht, The Netherlands. In the week before DH2019, i.e. 1-5 July 2019, the Lorentz Center in Leiden (also The Netherlands) will host a satellite workshop aimed at the articulation of the specific developments in the field of DH that are taking shape in Africa and their potential to enhance the global DH agenda. In addition, attention will be given to capacity building and the planning of initiatives along the lines of ‘science4development’. The programme will include introductions into the infrastructural support for DH and the most widely used data analysis methods with the Humanities and Social Sciences.

Type: Workshop

Eligibility: The workshop will welcome students and early-career scholars from the African continent for a week of lectures, tutorials, presentations, networking and debate. The selected participants are expected to attend DH2019 in Utrecht as well.


Number of Awards: 20 

Value of Award: Grants to cover the costs for travel and accommodation during the Lorentz workshop and DH2019, plus the conference fee for DH2019 can be applied for. Participants and/or the institutions they are affiliated to will be asked for contribution to the costs of accommodation during the workshop and DH2019.

Duration of Programme:  1 July 2019 To 05 July 2019

Selection Criteria and Procedure: For the allocation of workshop places the following elements will be taken into account:
– motivation letter by applicant (700-1000 words)
– letter of support  by supervisor (max 1 page)

In their motivation letter applicants should indicate:
– their research interests and current or planned research;
– their digital skills and the DH competences they would like to develop
and/or to improve during the workshop;
– their earlier involvement in DH events (workshops, etc.) as a
participant or otherwise.

In the selection procedure extra weight will be attributed to applications from (co)authors of contributions proposed for the DH2019 conference programme. In addition diversity across the dimensions such as geography and gender will be sought.
The selection of participants is in the hands of a committee of scholars and experts involved in leading one or more workshop sessions.
Selected participants will be expected to prepare themselves for the workshop by submitting a personal profile that can be shared (template will be provided) with the workshop lecturers.


How to apply
  • It is important to go through all application requirements on the Programme Webpage see link below) before applying

Visit Programme Webpage for Details

Oil’s Wild Price Swings Set to Create Global Chaos

Andrew Nikiforuk

As the current global oil glut shakes up petro states around the world, oil prices are becoming more volatile than Donald Trump tweets.
Neither Canada, now the dumb owner of a marginal 65-year-old pipeline, nor Alberta, a key exporter of bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, has paid much attention to this revolution.
As a consequence Canada has no strategy to deal with the new normal of highly volatile oil prices.
Government incompetence explains the hew and cry in Alberta about its overproduction crisis and the various proposals to solve it, ranging from the purchase of rail cars (a bad idea) to the decision to order companies to cut production of heavy oil by about 325,000 barrels a day (a sensible idea).
Alberta’s panic attack is based on the idea that bitumen from the province’s oilsands producers is selling at a discount because of a lack of pipeline capacity.
The reality is that the dramatic 30-per-cent drop in oil prices since the beginning of October, from more than US$70 to US$50, is upsetting oil exporters, producers and markets around the world.
Different kinds of oil fetch different prices, based on their quality and transportation costs. And all are experiencing dramatic price drops. Alberta’s bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, is not the only crude languishing during a global market glut.
Refineries in Japan and Korea, for example, scooped up cheap U.S. oil earlier this year.
Texas is replaying the Alberta experience. Overproduction of light shale oil and gas in the Permian Basin in Texas has choked up pipelines and refineries and thereby lowered prices for West Texas Intermediate, much to the dismay of shale oil drillers.
Meanwhile China’s three biggest oil companies, including PetroChina, have lost $79 billion in market value since the beginning of October as oil prices plummeted this fall.
No one expects this growing oil price volatility to end soon, and many analysts suspect the unpredictability is signalling five important structural shifts in the global economy that political leaders have largely ignored.
1. Low oil prices can be a big problem
The physics of energy flows, not money, makes the world go around. The evidence strongly suggests that the last 300 years of economic growth were based on a constant supply of cheap energy.
For the last 150 years the quest for cheap energy has changed the planet. Humans, with the help of fossil-fuelled enterprises, now consume one-quarter of the world’s primary biological production. We have changed the atmosphere and made human beings the world’s number one predator.
As the master resource, oil and its affordability controlled the pace of the global economy and influenced the price of most other commodities. Economic recessions followed high oil prices just as booms generally accompanied low prices.
Societies that can increase energy consumption, such as China and India right now, generate more jobs, support higher salaries and service debt more easily. But societies experiencing declining levels of energy consumption, such as embattled Europe, are having trouble keeping people employed at decent wages. By any measure oil remains a keystone species in the complex ecology of a technological society.
Too much price volatility can cripple the entire global machine, and low prices for oil can trigger even greater disruption, argues Gail Tverberg, an actuary who writes about “Our Finite World.”
Tverberg says the problem is not demand for oil, but increasing problems with the affordability of oil.
“The maximum affordable oil price seems to decline over time,” she writes, as workers struggle with stagnant wages, income inequality and higher interest rates. While high oil prices slow consumption and lead to parked cars, low oil prices can disrupt the ability of oil producers to invest in new production capacity and lead to shutdowns.
Tverberg believes the global economy has entered a period where gyrating oil prices will clobber consumers and producers alike. Prior to the 1970s, oil prices worked for both consumers and producers, she writes. But now “the price that consumers can afford has tended to fall increasingly far below the price that producers require.” Price volatility guarantees that producers will find it harder and harder to assemble the capital they need to grow oil production, let alone service their debt levels.
Higher oil prices won’t solve the problem because they will only depress the global economy further. “The physics tie between energy and the economy makes major energy consumption cutbacks virtually impossible, without risking economic collapse,” concludes Tverberg.
2. Wild volatility emerges as the new normal
Tom Therramus, the pen name of a U.S. academic, argues that oil price volatility is a new cyclical trend that has been increasing rapidly over the last 15 to 20 years.
Writing in the blog Oil-Price.Net, he documents this new development. “Wave-like surges,” or spikes in price volatility, tend to erupt every three or four years like clockwork. In addition stock market volatility tends to follow oil price leaps and falls by six to 12 months.
This new volatility in oil prices is analogous to other trends like the increasing frequency of wildfires in forests destabilized by drought and climate change.
And oil price volatility is as dangerous as a wildfire. “Unpredictability in oil price, resulting from rapid changes (up or down) over short time spans, is bad news because oil, and more broadly fossil fuel, is the commodity that is most essential to the operation of a modern economy,” Therramus writes.
Therramus adds “that the world has not seen a phenomenon of this type previously and that its emergence marks the rise of a new dynamic with potential to shape our economic and political fate. The uncertainty that many of us feel thus may be far from nebulous, but a shared hunch that history’s engines are shifting gears.”
Therramus predicted the current bout of oil price volatility.
The Harvard Business Review now suggests that everyone should get used to “faster, shallower price rotations based on changes in production.”
For more than a decade the Alberta government has known that bitumen pricing is 60 per cent more volatile than prices for higher quality West Texas Intermediate. But it did little to buffer its economy or its industry.
3. The global economy is languishing
Economist Robert Gordon has written lucidly about the decline of economic growth in the U.S. In the world’s first petro state, economic growth has shrunk from 3.2 per cent a year in 1970 to 1.4 per cent in 2016. The author of The Rise and Fall of American Growth argues that the slowdown has been marked by rising inequality, stagnant wages and underemployment among college graduates. Taxi drivers with PhDs are one symptom. So, too, are the declining productivity of agricultural research and medical workers. Similar patterns have enveloped the economies of Japan, Korea and Europe.
Gordon suspects that society has exhausted the possibilities and benefits created by what he calls “the Great Inventions of the Second Industrial Revolution,” such as refrigeration, electricity and jet engines. It is becoming “ever more resource intensive” to find technologies or ideas that may have a major impact on the economy, he writes.
This analysis partly explains why populist leaders from Brazil to the United States now emphasize a return to greatness in their tweets and rallies.
4. The U.S. shale gale is disruptive
The U.S. fracking revolution has played a significant role in creating a temporary oil glut and destabilizing prices. Last summer the U.S. pumped 11.6 million barrels a day as its oil production surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S., still a net importer of oil, hasn’t been the world’s largest crude oil producer since 1973.
This novel increase has largely been achieved by shattering dense shale rocks with the brute force technology of hydraulic fracking.
Fracking requires mountains of sand and lakes of water: both sand and water demands have tripled since 2012. The technology also comes with enormous environmental liabilities including earthquakes, methane migration, flaring, land fragmentation and groundwater contamination.
The fracking of shale deposits costs more than mining conventional oil, and it can’t be done without cheap credit. Early this year the Wall Street Journal estimated that “the companies behind the U.S. oil boom together have spent $265 billion more than they generated from operations since 2010.” Only low interest rates and lax regulations have kept the fracking revolution alive.
Some U.S. analysts predict the shale boom will last until 2040. But other forecasters such as David Hughes and Art Berman predict the shale gale will peak much sooner — within 10 years — due to high depletion rates, increasingly hard to extract resources and high costs.
In the meantime, a global surge in oil production, largely driven by fracking in North America, has disrupted oil markets repeatedly and added to oil price volatility. Overproduction in shale formations contributed to the oil price rout of 2014 and the collapse of oil prices this fall.
If Canada had paid any attention to the shale gale over the last decade, it would have limited bitumen production rather than let regulators rubber stamp one oilsands project after another. Competent politicians would have encouraged limited refining near the oilsands instead of advocating for unlimited pipeline expansion.
5. Costly, hard-to-produce oil means diminishing returns
The quantity and quality of oil produced has changed dramatically, meaning diminished returns for all players. Mining bitumen in the boreal forest or fracking tight oil from the Permian require complex and expensive engineering.
Most of Canada’s bitumen production comes from high-cost steaming operations that use enormous amounts of natural gas (almost one-third of Canada’s annual supply) to boil water to produce steam that is pumped underground to increase bitumen production. In the U.S., about half of all oil production comes from dense shale formations requiring high-cost fracking and horizontal drilling.
Bitumen and light oil from dense shale formations share a common trait — poor quality that adds to the cost of refining them. Bitumen requires upgrading while light oil poses a different set of refinery challenges, including contamination with paraffin waxes and hydrogen sulfide.
French geologist Jean Laherrère notes that shale oil is of substantially lower quality than conventional oil. So an increase in the number of barrels being produced does not mean an equivalent increase in energy value.
The more energy and capital that technological society throws at oil extraction, the more fragile it becomes. A hundred years ago companies drilled a hole and oil gushed from the ground. Now they are smashing concrete-like formations with extreme force or melting oilsands with steam to coax out lesser-quality oil.
In the process, the world’s oil and gas industry has gone further and further into debt to cover the cost of mining these extreme resources.
Low prices and more volatile pricing are not only big problems for the industry, but even bigger problems for oil-exporting states dependent on oil revenues.
Art Berman, the Houston analyst, calculates that the global industry needs a world oil price between $60 and $70 to recover costs. The price today is $50.
What does it all mean?
The lessons from these new realities are complex, but important.
The global economy is failing, with diminishing returns for the 99 per cent. Elites around the world are fighting among themselves over the remaining spoils.
Economic stagnation has plunged oil prices into chaotic volatility. (Or has the irrational pursuit of extreme resources such as bitumen and tight oil helped to unhinge the global economy?)
Canada promoted oilsands production based on forecasts of $100-a-barrel oil. The price reached that level in 2008, and then plunged. Volatility has ruled since. Canada and Alberta have also pretended bitumen, a cheap refinery feedstock, would command the same prices as higher quality oil.
Global markets have delivered the truth. Garbage crude is always garbage crude until you add value by upgrading and refining it. And when prices swing, low-quality oil takes the biggest hit.
Companies can compensate for oil price volatility in the short term by hedging, storing the product or by operating refineries and adding value. Governments can curtail production, as Alberta Premier Rachel Notley reluctantly did. (And yes, the price of heavy oil rallied.)
But the increasing waves of oil price volatility ultimately create political and financial instability. Petro states then practice extreme politics to contain the resulting unrest. And the U.S. is one of the world’s most conflicted and dysfunctional petro states.
Technology does not create energy. It merely accelerates the depletion of resources by providing more complex, costly ways of extracting what poorer hydrocarbons remain.
And no, it’s not just fossil fuel resources that are depleted. Cheap oil lets companies build bigger boats with bigger engines to use bigger nets to catch smaller fish, even as stocks are destroyed.
These energy dynamics also explain the repeated global political failure to face the disruptive anarchy of climate change. Minds conditioned by Titanic economic thinking have lost all connections to traditional instincts for survival, and don’t believe in icebergs.
Just as they ignore the reality that, in the absence of courageous political leadership, complex energy systems, like cod stocks, can collapse without much warning.

Financial warnings point to Australia’s economic and political instability

Mike Head 

Two warnings by global financial firms about the precarious state of the Australian economy in the face of the US-China trade war and global financial turmoil have underscored the ruling elite’s deepening economic and political predicaments.
This week’s reports, one by the Fitch ratings company and the other by Morgan Stanley, the American multinational investment bank, raise the spectre of a financial crisis that would blow up the pre-election claims of both the Liberal-National Coalition government and the Labor Party opposition.
They also point to the possibility of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who was installed via a backroom Liberal Party coup in August, calling a snap election to try to scrape back into office before the economic storm fully hits.
Last November, with the government wracked by electoral defeats and ongoing factional warfare, Morrison sought to hold it together for a few more months. He announced that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg would produce an early “surplus” budget in April, effectively paving the way for a federal election in May, which is the latest possible month.
However, this week’s reports expose the unreal assumptions behind the government’s claim to be ready to produce the first budget surplus since the 2008 global financial breakdown. They also indicate deep concerns in the ruling capitalist class that a sharp deterioration in economic conditions will intensify the discontent in the working class over decades of worsening social inequality and declining living standards, particularly since the last global crash in 2008.
According to Fitch, a slowdown in the world economy will cut anticipated government revenues, stopping the Coalition from reaching a budget surplus.
Fitch forecast a relatively small budget deficit of 0.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019–20, doubting Frydenberg’s December mid-year budget update, which predicted a surplus of $4.1 billion (0.2 percent of GDP) in 2019–20.
Fitch expected Australia’s economic growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018, due to weaker corporate investment and exports. It said the Chinese government’s bid to diversify its economy away from heavy industries, combined with China’s “ongoing economic growth deceleration” would “bode poorly for Australia’s mining exports.”
“Gloomier economic growth prospects” would also “slow hiring and wage growth,” undercutting the government’s extraordinary “revenue growth projection of 8.1 percent in fiscal year 2019.”
Fitch’s predictions themselves understate Australian capitalism’s exposure to the fallout from the Trump administration’s economic confrontation with China. The Australian corporate elite is becoming “collateral damage” in the offensive launched by the US ruling class, its largest source of foreign investment, to assert America’s post-World War II global supremacy. Signs are emerging already of the impact on China, which has become Australia’s largest export market over the past 15 years.
The Fitch warning ignited speculation of a possible early election. “As the economy slows in certain respects and global headwinds grow stronger, the option of a March election remains open to Scott Morrison,” the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported.
Interviewed on ABC radio on January 10, Frydenberg played down talk of an early poll. Nevertheless, he acknowledged “some cold headwinds in the global economy, particularly some of the trade tensions we’ve seen.” He also admitted that rising US and global interest rates could affect “the credit dynamic in the domestic economy.”
This was a veiled reference to rising mortgage interest rates and falling real estate prices, which are threatening to cause widespread mortgage defaults. Already an estimated one million households are suffering mortgage stress, with their household income insufficient to cover living expenses.
Asked again on ABC television’s “7.30” program that night whether he could guarantee there would be no election before April, Frydenberg was evasive. “Well, the prime minister has been very clear that I’ll be delivering a budget on April the 2nd, this will be an important economic document,” he replied.
On the same day, the London-based Financial Times, a voice of global capital, published an article headlined: “Australia’s house price slide prompts worries about economy.” It reported the latest warning, issued by Morgan Stanley, of an accelerating reversal in the housing market bubble that largely underpinned Australian capitalism after a decades-long mining boom began to implode in 2012.
“National house prices fell 1.3 percent in December, the largest monthly fall since 1983, which resulted in an annual decline of 6.1 percent last year,” the newspaper reported. “Prices in Sydney, the country’s biggest property market, are down 11.1 percent from their peak, according to Morgan Stanley, which warned this week the slump could torpedo Australia’s run of 27 years without a recession—a modern global record.”
Daniel Blake, lead author of the Morgan Stanley report, told the Financial Times: “Our models show that Australian households are most exposed of any G10 country to a housing slump and face a period of deleveraging, leaving growth heavily reliant on public spending on health, education and infrastructure.”
After years of sky-rocketing dwelling prices, which have enriched a host of billionaire developers and speculators, total Australian household liabilities have increased to more than $2.5 trillion, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Household debt has burgeoned from about 60 percent of disposable income in 1998 to around 200 percent—one of the highest levels in the world.
Morgan Stanley’s report followed a similar warning by Core Logic, which tracks property prices. A wider financial crisis could result because mortgage debt accounts for over 60 percent of the assets of most major Australian banks.
The Labor Party’s response to Fitch’s report was just as duplicitous as the government’s. Labor’s shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said the report was concerning, but made no mention of how the economic reversal would affect his party’s own pledges to the financial markets to produce bigger budget surpluses than the Coalition.
If Labor were to regain office by exploiting the widespread hostility to the unraveling Coalition, it would again form a pro-business government, as it did from 1983 to 1996 and 2007 to 2013, working closely with the trade unions to suppress workers’ opposition.
Sections of big business are looking to Labor to protect their interests as the Coalition’s most right-wing elements, orbiting around Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and ex-Prime Minister Tony Abbott, strive to refashion the Liberal and National parties into a Trump-style populist and semi-fascistic movement to divert the social discontent in nationalist directions.
At Labor’s national conference last month, the Labor and union leaders warned repeatedly of rising working-class unrest. They said a Labor-led government was essential to prevent the disaffection with the parliamentary order from boiling over.
Labor leader Bill Shorten warned of mounting “distrust and disengagement, scepticism and cynicism” toward the entire political system, while Australian Council of Trade Unions secretary Sally McManus warned of a tidal wave of discontent over casualised employment and falling wages.
The truth is that whichever party heads the next government, it will seek to make the working class pay for the emerging crisis by further gutting social spending, driving down real wages and breaking up working conditions. At the same time, it will boost military spending to meet Washington’s demand for Australia to remain unconditionally behind the aggressive US offensive against China.

Was the hack of German politicians data supported by the state?

Ulrich Rippert

News broke at the beginning of January that personal and political data from German politicians, well-known musicians, and journalists was stolen and published online. According to current figures, 994 active or former politicians have been affected by the hack.
The main content of the leaks was personal contact information, including phone numbers and addresses, as well as internal party documents like application letters to party congresses. In a few cases, highly sensitive personal information was made public, including pictures from personal ID cards, documents confirming direct debit payments from bank accounts, chats with family members, and credit card details of relatives. Some of the documents are several years old.
The data was published before Christmas on Twitter in the style of an advent calendar. The account which published the data has more than 17,000 followers. Personal details from celebrities have been repeatedly published there since 2017. Media reports have noted that multiple copies have been made of the data, making it almost impossible to delete.
At a press conference on Tuesday, federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (Christian Social Union, CSU) announced that the security agencies would take tougher measures in response to the hack. “The investigators responsible are working at top speed,” he said. A suspect has already been questioned and is cooperative, he added. The suspect is a 20-year-old student from the state of Hesse. The Interior Minister praised the “swift investigation,” and thanked the security agencies for “good and rapid cooperation.”
In the future, the cyber-security sector would be a focus around the clock, Seehofer declared. A new draft security law is almost complete and will be presented in the first half of 2019, he added. The Federal Agency for Security (BSI) will hire more personnel. The qualifications of BSI workers will also be reviewed more closely and improved in the future.
Seehofer said nothing about the fact that signs point to far-right forces around the Alternative for Germany (AfD) being involved in the attack. And it is well known that the right-wing party enjoys strong support from the security agencies.
A glance at the facts suggests that the data hack was part of the political conspiracy which the federal government has used to impose its policies of militarism and the strengthening of the repressive state apparatus to suppress all opposition in the population.
Firstly, it is noteworthy that of all the parties represented in parliament, only politicians from one remained unaffected by the hack: the AfD. 56 percent of parliamentary deputies, or a total of 398, have been affected, including 204 from the CDU/CSU, 90 from the SPD, 47 from the Left Party, 31 from the Greens, and 26 from the Free Democrats, but not a single one of the AfD’s 91 deputies.
The source of the attack also points to far-right circles. Die Zeit has carefully examined the case, and came to the conclusion, “It is not yet possible to say who exactly was responsible for stealing the data. But the people associated with the accounts provide further indications that those responsible are active in right-wing politics. The main account, 0 rbit, participated in right-wing extremist discussions on Twitter.”
According to Die Zeit, other far-right accounts have ties to the main account, including AN_Ofiziell (anonymousness), which is active in right-wing politics and presents itself as part of the Anonymous hacker group. The twin account anonymousnews.ru was also connected to the main account. The suspected person behind the account is a right-wing extremist from Erfurt who was sentenced to two years and ten months in prison in December 2018 due to illegally trading weapons. The man filed an appeal against the ruling and is currently free under strict police surveillance.
Julian Reichelt, editor-in-chief of the Bild newspaper, pointed to another aspect of the case Tuesday that undermines the official narrative of a lone 20-year-old student living out his fantasies of unlimited power online. It concerns the huge set of data he is currently reviewing and analysing with a trained team of specialist investigative reporters. “This wasn’t one or two boys eating pizza and drinking cola in a basement. It must have been a larger structure. The most likely explanation is that there was state support for this hack, regardless of where it came from,” Reichelt explained.
The Bild editor-in-chief indicated that a state “possibly with subversive intent,” tried to undermine the Federal Republic, but then wrote, “According to the investigators, there is no political motivation, nobody pulling the strings from Russia, China, or another country.”
The question is therefore posed: was the data hack organized by the AfD’s far-right network, which reaches deep into the state’s security apparatus and is used by the government to enforce its right-wing, anti-social, and militarist policies?
The right-wing extremist networks, which are present in all parts of the state apparatus, are well known.
Last summer, the head of the domestic intelligence agency, Hans-Georg Maassen, was removed from his post after defending neo-Nazi marchers in Chemnitz.
In its latest report, the domestic intelligence agency neglects to mention the AfD, even though it regularly agitates against immigrants, promotes racism, and trivialises the Nazis’ crimes and the Wehrmacht. By contrast, the Socialist Equality Party (SGP) is named in the report as a “left-wing extremist” party, with the justification that it criticises the capitalist system.
In the army, a neo-Nazi network was discovered when the terrorist plans of Franco A. were accidentally revealed. The army officer, who had procured firearms and apparently planned attacks on high-ranking politicians, had registered himself as a Syrian refugee. He seemingly planned to blame his crimes on refugees. Nonetheless, the Frankfurt Court of Appeals saw no reason to press charges against him.
When Focus magazine published new details in November about the “conspiratorial network of around 200 soldiers in the army,” other media outlets ignored the revelation and the issue was quickly dropped.
A far-right cell in the police in Frankfurt was recently exposed, which described itself as “NSU 2.0”—a reference to the neo-Nazi National Socialist Underground terrorist group.
The existence of a right-wing conspiracy within the state apparatus is thus not the product of conspiracy theories, but bitter reality.
This is the context within which the political campaign to defend the AfD which began immediately after the data leak must be understood. A violent attack on the leader of the right-wing party in Bremen served as the pretext for politicians to line up with statements of solidarity for the AfD. On Tuesday morning, contrary to all the facts, a report was spread claiming that the AfD member was beaten severely by three masked individuals with a wooden baton.
Later, after footage from security cameras was reviewed, it was confirmed that the AfD politician was pursued by three men, who attacked him from behind. A spokesman for the Bremen state prosecutor stated that the pictures showed “nobody kicking someone lying on the ground,” and nobody striking the victim with an object.
Despite this, media outlets have reported the attack as an attempted murder, and all parties have declared their support for and solidarity with the AfD.