8 Feb 2020

BP Global STEM Academies 2020 for Young People (Fully-funded trips to Brazil, Egypt, USA & India)

Application Deadline: 9th March at 11:59 PM EST

Eligible Countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, Germany, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Africa and the USA.

To be Taken at (Country): Brazil, Egypt, USA, India

About the Award: Apply now for this once in a lifetime opportunity.  BP and AFS have partnered to host the BP Global STEM Academies, four-week programs in Brazil, Egypt, India, and the USA focusing on science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) and global competence education. Scholarship winners will enrich their STEM knowledge and skills through interactive, hands-on curriculum, while developing critical global competencies, including problem solving, analytical skills, intercultural understanding, and the ability to build bridges across cultures. The program culminates with team projects and presentations that offer potential solutions to real world challenges, with an emphasis on climate change and the energy transition. The program is only available via scholarship award – see below for eligibility criteria.

Type: Undergraduate

Eligibility: For the 2020 BP Global STEM Academies, AFS is identifying and selecting scholarship recipients from Brazil, China, Egypt, Germany, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Africa and the USA. If you are from one of the above countries and meet the eligibility criteria below, click on the “Apply now” button to start your application!
  • Must be born between December 1, 2002 and June 1, 2005
  • The ability to participate fully in a classroom and program conducted entirely in English
  • Demonstrated interest in STEM, study abroad and interacting with different cultures
  • Willingness to attend all four Academy destinations – Brazil, Egypt, India or the USA
  • Ability and willingness to travel unaccompanied abroad
  • Interested in exploring new cultures
Talented young people from all backgrounds who reflect the diversity of populations around the world, particularly young women and students with financial need, are encouraged to apply! For more information about the application and selection process please see FAQ below.

Number of Awards: 110

Value of Award: full scholarships.

Duration of Award:
  • Brazil: June 13 – July 11
  • Egypt: July 1 – July 29
  • USA: July 5 – July 31
  • India: July 12 – August 9
How to Apply: Apply Now!
  • It is important to go through all application requirements and FAQ in the Award Webpage (see Link below) before applying.

Coronavirus to have deep impact on global economy

Nick Beams

The Wall Street stock exchange fell back from its record highs yesterday amid continued uncertainty about the full economic effects of the coronavirus on the Chinese and global economy.
Initial forecasts had been that Chinese growth in the first quarter of this year would fall from around 6 percent to as low as 4.5 percent, or even 4 percent. But now there are warnings it could be much lower.
The chairman of the financial advisory firm Evercore ISI, Ed Hyman, told the business channel CNBC: “Our team has GDP growth at zero for the first quarter. China is really slowing.”
In its report on monetary policy to the US Congress, issued yesterday, the Federal Reserve warned that “possible spillovers from the effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook.”
The S&P rating agency said it expects Chinese growth for the whole of 2020 to fall to 5 percent, following a growth rate of 6.1 percent in 2019, which was the lowest result since 1990.
S&P said the global impact of the China slowdown would be felt through four channels: sharply reduced tourism revenues; lower exports of capital and consumer goods; lower commodity prices and industrial supply-chain disruptions. “These spillovers could become larger if markets start to price in the risk of a material global slowdown and financial conditions tighten,” it said.
The worsening outlook for China, and by extension the global economy, was the main factor behind the Wall Street sell-off yesterday, which saw the Dow index decline by 227 points, or 0.9 percent. The S&P 500 index fell back 0.5 percent from the record high it reached on Thursday, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.5 percent.
The past week has seen significant market swings. There has been a “tug of war” between concerns over the economic effects of a major China slowdown, and the belief that whatever happens in the real economy, the US Fed and other central banks are ready to pump money into the financial system and sustain stock markets.
Evidence of the plunge in economic activity in China and its effect on the global economy has continued to mount in the past week.
Yesterday the Financial Times reported that the global gas market had been thrown into “turmoil” as Chinese importers threatened to “cancel up to 70 percent of seaborne imports in February as demand collapses and companies struggle to staff ports.”
This move by China, which is the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas, has sent prices to their lowest levels on record.
Copper traders in China have declared force majeure —a clause that nominates natural disasters or other unavoidable events as a reason for not fulfilling contracts—as they have scrapped or postponed orders for the industrial metal, of which China is the world’s largest buyer.
The effects of the China shutdown extend to high-tech industries as well. The Taiwanese company ASE Technology, which tests and packages semi-conductors, has warned it cannot say when it can resume production and that this is entirely in the hands of Chinese government officials. The company’s head of investor relations, Ken Hsiang, said the impact on its business was unpredictable and the virus outbreak was a “negative lottery.”
The auto industry is being hard hit also. The Japanese car manufacturer Toyota, which has 12 plants in China and is the world’s second-largest auto company, extended the shutdown of its China operations until at least February 16.
Honda said it can avoid “major” problems if it can reopen its three plants in Wuhan on February 14, but “it will be a different matter” if the shutdown is extended.
Fiat Chrysler said that one of its European plants could be forced to stop production in a matter of weeks due to a shortage of parts.
Ford announced that it is getting ready to airlift parts out of China in order ensure its operations. Speaking to the Financial Times, Jim Farley, the company’s chief operations officer, said Ford would seek to work around the supply problem. The main risk in the longer term was the shutdown of the Chinese car market, the largest in the world, he said.
The international effects of the China shutdown are now being shown in the financial data, as well as growth estimates. Emerging market currencies are falling, with the JP Morgan currency index down by 0.7 percent, its largest decline since August last year.
Citigroup issued a warning that the effect of the virus will be worse than the SARS outbreak in 2002–2003 because China now accounts for one-third of global growth, compared to 10 percent 17 years ago.
The financial firm ING revised down its forecast for growth in Taiwan for 2020 from 1.6 percent to 0.8 percent. Even before the coronavirus, Taiwan’s economy was showing signs of slowing, with exports declining by 7.6 percent in January, while imports fell by 17.7 percent.
It is not possible, at this stage, to gauge the full effects of the coronavirus on the global economy. Its impact is being exacerbated by the underlying international slowdown. Further evidence of the downturn came yesterday with the release of data showing, unexpectedly, that December’s industrial production plunged 3.5 percent in Germany compared to the previous month. Industrial output was also down in France and Spain.
And notwithstanding the blustering of Trump about the “boom” in America, the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data show US economic growth at barely above 2 percent.

7 Feb 2020

DFID/World Bank/UNHCR Young Fellowship Program 2020

Application Deadline: 6th March 2020

Eligible Countries: Any

To be Taken at (Country): The location of the consultancy is agreed between the fellows, supervisor and the program’s administrator. This location can be in World Bank or UNHCR headquarters, field locations or anywhere else provided is agreed with the relevant parties.

About the Award: In 2016, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) partnered with the World Bank and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to establish a research program on forced displacement called “Building the Evidence on Protracted Forced Displacement: A Multi-Stakeholder Partnership”. The objective of the program is “to improve the wellbeing of the forcibly displaced and of host communities by improving global knowledge on the effectiveness of policies and programs that target these populations”.
The program is administered by the Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) department of the World Bank and currently includes 5 pillars: 1) Research on global questions related to forced displacement in the education, health, social protection and jobs sectors; 2) Impact evaluations of programs administered to refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs); 3) A research program on gender and forced displacement; 4) Research on forced displacement on selected topics not covered under pillars 1-3 and 5) A Young Fellows program for post-doc scholars interested in research on forced displacement.
The first cycle of the Young Fellows program was launched in June 2018 and saw the participation of 10 African scholars who worked at the World Bank and the UNHCR for a period of 12 months between July 2018 and June 2019. The program proved to be a success as all scholars were able to produce high quality research and subsequently found employment in international organizations, including the World Bank and the UNHCR. B

Type: Fellowship

Eligibility:
Mandatory requirements:
  • A completed Ph.D. in Social Sciences by June 30st, 2020 (Economics, Statistics, Politics, Sociology, etc);
  • Strong quantitative skills (Statistics, Econometrics, Machine Learning, Impact evaluations skills);
  • 35 years of age or below by December 31st, 2020;
  • Citizen of a low- or middle-income country as defined by the World Bank;
  • A proven interest in forced displacement issues.
Priority will be given to scholars with:
  • A Ph.D. thesis addressing forced displacement questions;
  • Personal forced displacement experiences (Refugees, Internally Displaced Persons and other scholars who have personally experienced forced displacement situations);
  • Proven work experience in forced displacement contexts;
  • A publication record
Number of Awards: Up to 10 Fellowships

Value of Award:
  • Consulting fees are based on education and work experience as established by the World Bank STC regulations.
  • The World Bank will also provide one return ticket in economy class between home country and the location of the consultancy.
  • Fellows will be assigned to a unit in the World Bank or the UNHCR and a supervisor within the unit. Each fellow will work with existing data available at the World Bank, UNHCR or elsewhere and is expected to produce two working papers during the course of the fellowship. The topic of the papers is decided jointly by the fellow, supervisor and the program’s administrator and is expected to relate to World Bank or UNHCR operational work. Good quality papers will be published in the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper series and these papers are expected to be submitted to peer reviewed journals following publication in the WP series.
Duration of Award: July 2020-June 2021

How to Apply: Please submit a Curriculum Vitae with a cover page via email to FDfellows@worldbank.org.
The cover page should include the following information in this order:
  • Family name, Name
  • Contacts (Email and telephone)
  • Nationality (include multiple nationality if applicable)
  • Age at December 31st, 2020
  • Ph.D. year, university, title and discipline (Economics, Statistics, Politics, Sociology, etc)
  • Full reference of the top 3 publications (if any)
  • Statement of interest (400 words max)
  • Forced displacement experiences (400 words max)
  • Proposed research topic (if any)
The deadline for application is March, 6th, 2020. Given the large number of expected applicants, submissions will not be acknowledged. Shortlisted candidates will be notified by April 17th, 2020.


Visit Award Webpage for Details

Fascism in America and the Rise of the Great Dictator

Scott Owen

I’m a 64 year old man now but the words of my mother still ring in my mind. My Mother, who lived through the time and horrors of the second world war, told me when I was very young that if I ever was to see something like Hitler and the Nazi movement growing in our society that I had to do something. My mother was a serious woman and she meant what she said. If you see it you must do something.
My Father, who fought in both the Second World War and The Korean War, taught me through his influence to find peaceful paths towards the world’s problems and showed me the art of studying history and the philosophers.
He encouraged me to write and would have acknowledged the power of the pen but also the reality of great armies, authoritarian police states and nuclear weapons.
Having neither army, police or weapons I take up the pen or more precisely, I go to my keyboard to at least shout out loud and clear to the present danger that so many feel but somehow we refuse to fully acknowledge or accept. As in any crises, acceptance of the situation is the first step to any defense, rescue or recovery.
That there is a power that is “something like” Hitler and the Nazi movement not only rising in this country but very much in place in this country there is no doubt, we see the news of it every day. Here we could show pages and pages of documented evidence in the form of videos, transcripts, news articles etc. showing both the words and actions of a fascist dictator and all that he has gotten away with and achieved. This fascist coup is achieved with the help of a fascist leaning right wing party, a corrupted left wing party and a corrupted segment of the Christian church bent on dominating the world while advancing what looks like the agenda of the four horsemen of the apocalypse and the destruction of earth by fire.
Although Trump is certainly the “The Great Leader” figurehead of this movement and the one who will wear the mantle of dictator I prefer not to focus too heavily on him alone as by doing so we underestimate the real threat of this movement knowing that even if Trump were removed Mike Pence or someone else like him could easily carry this coup forward. In seeing this we know that the fascist coup taking place is not solely in the hands of Donald Trump. We must remember too that there are, many, many people involved in the support of this movement from the Republicans who full-on embrace the coup to the Democratic party that has at times refused to put-up real resistance, to Supreme Court justices who give the legal blessing to the corruption with their votes up-holding laws that promote fascism such as the laws giving super PACs financial power over public elections while allowing the stripping away of basic constitutional rights.
Then there’s Attorney General William Barr corrupted years ago with neo-con lawlessness under George H.W. Bush. There are also those shady characters that helped Trump in his run for president like Bannon and Miller and Stone, folks who mostly work in the dark behind closed doors. There are as well those Americans who have either blindly or with eyes wide open supported the Trump presidency with votes and donations and rhetoric that promotes and supports him.
It is important that we remember that this march towards fascism did not begin with and may not end with Trump. The country has been moving toward fascism for many years. The US has been corrupted by capitalism which sets the stage for fascism going back at least to the time of the robber barons and the industrial revolution but took a sharper turn towards full on fascism under Bush II and the Obama administrations which both further entitled the wealthy ruling class, created stronger bands between business interests, corporations and Wall Street while simultaneously stripping citizens of basic rights guaranteed under the constitution.
Working hand in hand and adding to and enabling the government and business take-over we must of course consider the main stream media. With the propaganda machine we call the daily news fully in place the public has been thoroughly manipulated into accepting the atrocious actions of our government and corporations. The media is complicit as it altogether ignores many important stories or falsely reports on important events such as the killing of young Black people in the streets by police to the tearing away of babies from their mothers on the border by our Border Patrol to the total destruction of non-threatening counties by our military.  American citizens while believing they are well-informed and engaged have become misinformed, numb, uninterested and apathetic towards these government actions which now seem quite ordinary but would have been seen as somewhat monstrous 30, 40, 50 years ago by most of the American people.
We’ve watched as the use of mass surveillance has become ubiquitous, as freedoms have been stripped away, as the military funding and build-up has increased along with the odious militarization of domestic law enforcement. Laws are passed that move the money and economic power always up into the hands of the already mega-wealthy while putting the middle-class on alert and the poor on the streets. We’ve also had the Patriot Act, the NDAA, Nafta1&2, whistle-blowers tracked down and imprisoned, laws passed state to state criminalizing protest, laws chipping away at women’s right to choice and discriminatory and racist immigration bans.  The fascist coup has been playing-out over the years just like in the story of the frog caught in a pan of slowly heating water.
Here are some well publicized indicators of a Fascist up-rising:
An emphasis on nationalism
Diminishing of human rights
Unifying around the hatred of opponents and perceived enemies
Sexism and oppression of alternative gender and lifestyle groups
Ownership of media
An inordinate emphasis on security
State sponsored and supported religion
Unlimited corporate power
Suppression of unions and workers’ rights
Contempt towards intellectuals and artists
Extreme emphasis on crime and punishment
Cronyism and corruption in government
Unsecured and/or fraudulent elections
Under the Trump presidency the slow moving fascist coup has gone into over-drive. Though I don’t assign total blame to Trump I will say that he has certainly been the perfect actor to pull-off the role of Great Dictator.
There is nothing real about Donald Trump; he is as phony as they come because unlike a real human being everything he does, everything he says and does now is in service to his image and role as the Dictator.
Yet we must acknowledge and stand in awe at his ability to reach out to those who were feeling confused, dis-oriented and disposed, his ability to reach out and pander to many who are with the military or law enforcement, his ability to speak the language of those leaning towards violence, the armed alt-right and white supremacists. Trumps elevation to near god-like status by far-right evangelical Christians has also been remarkable, it happened very fast, has taken on cult-like fanaticism and has had a steady and apparently unmovable base of generally uninformed, misinformed or complicit followers.
10 stages of impending genocide:
Classification: of people into categories of “Us” and “Them”
Symbolization” of people through the use of symbols and names (liberals, immigrants)
Discrimination: against minorities or other groups who are politically powerless (the poor, people with alternative lifestyles/genders/religious views/ philosophies)
Dehumanization: of people through language (referring to certain people as animals) or abusive
treatment
Organization; Both formal and informal. Using militias and special security forces (private contractors, ICE, Homeland Security) in the service of the state
Polarization: Defining groups by their differences and driving them apart
Preparation: Building security forces, concentration camps, prisons
Persecution: Separating people off from mainstream society according to ethnic, religious, social, personal identities
Extermination: Allowing the killing of certain groups by state run agencies and security forces (on the streets, on the border)
Denial: Denial of deaths of crimes, cover-ups, intimidation of witnesses, pardoning war criminals and  other law-breakers  (As outlined by Gregory H. Stanton and Genocide Watch)
Under Trump we have seen the final stages of the much needed social and political engineering that converts a population of people from somewhat ordinary citizens into brain-washed and conforming accomplishes to the fascist coup and crimes against humanity. The Trump administration has used the proven techniques of dictators in a masterful way. The lying, a most necessary ingredient, was employed from the beginning of Trumps foray into politics. After the election we were swamped with even more and ever more ridiculous lies right up until today. The lies serve the dictators purpose which is to throw the whole idea of truth into question.
Another tool of oppressors, the use of the stochastic language that promotes violence against Trumps critics and opponents is quite intentional, deliberate and earnestly made. When Trump suggests that his people “rough up” his opponents he means it quite literally and he has never once retracted any of those kinds of statements. His threats of violence have been made against many, from certain political rivals to the entire Democratic Party and against whole nations. The language he uses is intentionally dehumanizing and most often directed towards either his opponents or those minorities who are both misunderstood and in positions of already constant intimidation and powerlessness. Dehumanizing minorities and rivals is a central tool for tyrants and dictators who wish to turn the general public into heartless monsters so that the imprisonment and killing of those others, those opponents becomes an acceptable act, terrorism becomes a patriotic act and a service to the dictator.
The hallmark of Trump’s presidency, the final nail in this nation’s democratic experiment, is Trump’s lawlessness. As the point of his policies is his cruelty the lawlessness he displays is the point of his presidency. And what is the point of the lawlessness, the absolute destruction of what little bit of representative democracy that remains in this country. Constant and consistent lawlessness is a most important factor because every point of our government is held up by a point of law. Undermining truth, promoting violence and breaking away from established law have all been constant elements of Trumps agenda which leads us to the very real danger of the Trump presidency, that it could be the end of democracy and representational government as we know it.
The impeachment and failed conviction serves no one better than Trump. A failed impeachment, the failure to convict and remove that is, emboldens Trump and gives Trump and the nation the very distinct impression that he truly is above the law as his attorneys and his Republican supporters continue to insist he is.  A person who is above the law is above everything. A ruler who has taken on the claim of authority of supreme jurisdiction of a government is a dictator. From the very beginning of Trump’s reign until today Trump has been dismantling both common expectations, domestic and international law and most importantly for the aspiring dictator, the laws that limit his personal or his administrations power. While Trump’s opponents laugh at him and mock him for his stupidity Trump is managing the fascist coup that most all Americans would claim as their greatest fear for the country that the country might fall into the hands of a dictator.
Having won an impossible election, having survived three years of both earnest and feigned opposition from some media and some truly concerned citizens, having survived the downfall of many of his accomplices, having survived the Mueller investigation, having survived the blowback from the Khashoggi killing, the travel bans, the migrant camps, atrocities along the border, the Epstein cover-up and on and on Trump must be feeling the power and, now with the impeachment ending without a conviction, Trump must be feeling most invincible.
The dictator does not begin his terrifying reign by moving to the terrorism and absolute power immediately upon coming into office, though Trump has indicated his love of dictators and dictatorships and the direction that his administration will move from the beginning of his term. The tyrant must build on his power, creating strong alliances with co-conspirators and certain elements of the society. That they do not move immediately into terrorism is in part how they achieve those ends later in their reign. How many slaughters, holocausts, genocides and purges might have been diverted if the public had been willing to act against such forces when they first appeared rather than waiting until the power is absolute and thousands or millions of lives are taken under the terror of the dictator?
There is no doubt given the well documented examples of Trumps intentions coming from his own mouth, his love of power and his lawlessness together, that Trump and his administration will follow through with whatever they must do to take and hold power. When Donald Trump says he’s done more than any other president, as he said just the other day, he isn’t kidding, not if by doing more you mean using the presidency as your stepping stone towards dictatorship which from all appearances is the sole purpose of Trumps presidency, consolidating and retaining power.
Now with the impeachment trial wrapped-up, with Republicans capitulating to the power, with democrats at the end of their rope, with the justice department fully in his court, with elections rigged to the Republicans’ advantage, Trump really has become the Great Dictator.

These Drugs are in US Meat But Not on the Label

Martha Rosenberg

Thanks to animal welfare groups, most people are now aware of “factory farms.” Concentrated animal feeding operations or CAFOs abuse workers, animals, the environment, human consumers and even our tax dollars. (How? Price supports and government bailouts when diseases occur.) Thanks to greedy CAFOs crowding, diseases killed one-tenth of all US pigs and millions of chickens and turkeys a few years ago.
The public is less aware of “animal Pharma”– and the breadth of livestock diseases that are treated with drugs. For example Merck markets 49 vaccines for poultry alone to prevent diseases like fowl pox, turkey coryza, bursal disease, coccidiosis, laryngotracheitis, hemorrhagic enteritis, avian encephalomyelitis of course salmonella and E. coli. Yum.
It also markets at least 25 vaccines to prevent cattle diseases and an entire schedule of vaccines for pigs including Argus® SC/ST Avirulent Live Culture, “an aid in the prevention of pneumonia, diarrhea, septicemia and mortality caused by Salmonella choleraesuis and as an aid in control of disease and shedding of Salmonella typhimurium.” It even markets vaccines for use in aquaculture.
More than 90 percent of broiler chickens in the US are vaccinated “in ovo” against diseases like Marek’s, Gumboro and Newcastle meaning they are vaccinated as embryos, though the public is largely unaware of this. “In ovo” grafting is also performed–for example injecting quail tissue cells into non-quail chicks– to create brave new animals. Chimeras, clones and transgenic animals are seldom covered in the mainstream news but they are no longer rare.
Vaccines are also made from “GMO” spores which an article in Veterinary Research admits could “raise environmental concerns” because the spores have “the potential to survive indefinitely in the environment.”
Antibiotics Have Stopped Working Due to Superbugs They Created
The use of tons of antibiotics on CAFOs has kind of “killed the goose that laid the golden egg.” As the drugs cease to work in people and animals from their farm overuse, Pharma is pushing vaccines to replace them. Meat producers like the fact that if they use vaccines they can actually say they use “no antibiotics” and play to health conscious food buyers. In fact, a 2015 marketing study estimated the global animal-vaccine market will be worth $7.2 billion by 2020, up from $5.5 billion in 2010.
US meat is also full of hormones like oestradiol-17, zeranol, trenbolone acetate and melengestrol acetate. These synthetic growth hormones are central to US beef production and the reason Europe has banned a lot of US meat since 1989. Yes, Europeans won’t eat what Americans eat every day.
Melengestrol acetate is 30 times as active as natural progesterone, says the European Commission (EC) and trenbolone acetate, a synthetic androgen, is several times more active than testosterone. Trenbolone acetate, administered as ear implants, has been found in male fathead minnows who lived near a Nebraska feedlot that discharged its polluted water into the environment.
While the drugs used in US meat production do not appear on the label, they should. Antibiotics, which have been found lurking in the meat, have been linked to drug resistance and superbugs, obesityasthma and compromised gut bacteria. Vaccines have been linked to oxidative stress and harm from exposure to heavy metals.
And hormones? “The highest rates of breast cancer are observed in North America, where hormone-treated meat consumption is highest in the world,” says the EU’s Scientific Committee on Veterinary Measures Relating to Public Health. The committee adds that the same metrics apply to prostate cancer.
How many people would eat US meat if these drugs were clearly marked on the label?

Libya is Being Torn Apart By Outsiders

Vijay Prashad

With the United States walking out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—more commonly known as the Iran accord—we all enter into a heightened zone of danger. Trump is threatening a war on Iran through his statements and tweets, and now by his actions, assassinating serving Iranian and Iraqi generals on Iraqi soil. Assassinations are illegal in international law, but then Trump’s understanding of domestic and international law is limited by what he thinks he can get away with. A war in the region now threatens its entire oil and shipping infrastructure, and can also take down the entire global economy in its wake.
The international community is complicit by complying with the patently illegal U.S. economic sanctions on Iran, and now with its cowardly silence on the assassinations of Major-General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Only UN sanctions are valid international sanctions. The United States is able to enforce its domestic sanctions illegally on the rest of the world by virtue of its control over the global financial network: the SWIFT international money transfer platform, the international banking system, global financial institutions, etc. In international law, these economic sanctions are illegal and imposing collective punishment on Iran’s civilian population.
Recently, the three EU signatories, the UK, France and Germany (EU-3), have lodged a formal complaint to the dispute settlement mechanism that Iran is violating the JCPOA, paving the way for snapping back the UN sanctions that had been lifted. This is bad faith. The United States under Trump has already pulled out of the JCPOA, and the EU-3 has failed to counter the sanctions as they had committed to Iran. Iran is still unable to sell oil, its main export; the INSTEX, the financial mechanism set up by EU supposedly to bypass the U.S. sanctions, has not seen any transaction with Iran. Effectively, Iran has been put back to a pre-2015 era, or the status prevailing before the JCPOA was signed.
Iran had given notice under JCPOA itself that it would move step-by-step away from its commitments, as permitted under the agreement if one or more parties reimpose sanctions. It would return to fulfilling all its commitments if the signatory states abide by theirs. No agreement can impose only one side to comply, while the other side reneges on its commitments.
Russia and China have limited capacity to beat the U.S. sanctions. So has India, the other big buyer of Iranian oil. All countries have problems in paying Iran except through barter deals. This is impossible in the modern era without duplicating the existing global financial infrastructure independent of the United States. The U.S. exercises a stranglehold on the world’s financial structure, and this gives the U.S. sanctions international teeth.
If the U.S. sanctions continue and the rest of the world does nothing to ease Iran’s pain, it will restart the escalatory ladder to war—Iranians ratcheting up their nuclear program, while the United States threatens more sanctions and possibly physical attacks on Iran’s nuclear and other infrastructure. Without any off-ramp from such a course, this can only lead to an eventual collision and war. Iran, having faced U.S. and international sanctions for four decades now, is unlikely to submit and give up its nuclear and missile capability. It is fully aware of what happened to Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, after they did.
So why is Trump sounding the drumbeats of war against Iran? Is the endgame regime change through sanctions? Or is it war with Iran and its physical destruction?
Trump’s thoughts and actions are often hard to predict. He is a president who lives his life on Twitter and thinks he is still on reality TV, where firing his apprentices and firing presidents of other countries have no consequences in the real world.
The larger U.S. game plan is to reduce Iran to a vassal state. The difference between Obama-Clinton, with Trump-Pompeo, is more about tactics and means than a deeper difference on end goals. Having failed to deter Iran through sanctions, Obama had finally chosen the treaty path, hoping to subvert Iran in the future through peace, trade and a color revolution. Trump would like to reset the same game that successive U.S. administrations have tried and failed; that is, asking Iran to surrender—or else!
The United States has the capability to inflict economic pain on Iran, creating dissatisfaction with the Iranian political system, particularly among the youth. Young people in Iran are not too fond of the stifling Islamic structure that straitjackets opinions and organizations. But Iran’s state structure, including its elections, still retains legitimacy among the people. The more sanctions and attempts to threaten Iran there are, the more they will lead to nationalist consolidation behind Iran’s leaders.
What about the military equation? If the United States resorts to force, can Iran retaliate sufficiently for the U.S. to be deterred?
The recent missile strikes by Iran on the U.S. bases in Iraq are a key indicator of how much Iran’s missile prowess has grown. Earlier, we had seen its ability to bring down a behemoth spy drone flying above 60,000 feet. The missile strikes against the two U.S. bases this time have shown a quantum leap in the accuracy of Iranian missiles. If Iran’s missiles have improved dramatically as the defense experts argue, so must have that of its allies: Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and the Syrian government forces.
So how good are Iran’s missiles? Iran used short-range ballistic missiles and not cruise missiles, which it is also known to possess. The short-range missiles used were Fateh-110, which has a range of about 300 kilometers, and Qaim-1 with a range of 800 km. A defense website in the United States sums up its conclusions, that “Iran can reliably ‘put hundreds of kilos of high explosive on targets within 700km of Iran’ with decent, if not impressive, accuracy.” This view is widely shared by other arms experts. From the Scud-era missiles, which had an accuracy of 1-2 kilometers in terms of CEP (circular error probable, the measurement of the accuracy of missiles), they have now reached an accuracy of ten to tens of meters CEP.
The other issue is that though the United States claimed it is their early warning system that warned them of the missile attacks in advance, it appears that Iranians had warned the Iraqi government of the impending strike, and they, in turn, had warned the United States two hours before the strikes. The U.S. soldiers had taken shelter in bunkers, and even then 50 of them have been shifted to hospitals in Germany and Kuwait suffering from concussion/brain injury. The payload carried by Iranians was also lower, indicating the possibility that Iran wanted to show its missile prowess, but not cause American casualties.
The United States’ much-vaunted air defense seems to not have been deployed or not used at the two bases that Iran attacked. The Patriot batteries had also failed to defend a major Saudi oil facility against Houthi missiles in September 2019. Many experts have stated that Patriots are highly overrated, and will not work against the Iranian missiles.
What about Iron Dome or other defense systems that Israel has developed? While they might work against the crude and less sophisticated rockets from Gaza, such systems will be overwhelmed if a large number of missiles with higher accuracy are launched simultaneously. If Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis have missiles similar to Iran’s, then Israel and the other U.S. allies in the region—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—are at risk of the destruction of their sensitive infrastructure such as chemical and nuclear plants and population centers. Iran with its allies also has the ability to inflict significant damage and casualties on the U.S. bases and ships. The latest Iran strikes show that all of the U.S. bases in the region are within Iran’s strike range. It does appear that Iran’s missile development provides it with a strategic deterrence against U.S. military power without nuclear weapons.
Looking at all these elements, neither side in West Asia—either the U.S.-Israel-Saudi axis or the Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi-Syria alliance—wants war and its consequence. The problem is that war often happens by accident; or through unintended consequences of actions when forces are at hair-trigger alert. This time it was limited to an unfortunate accident leading to the Ukrainian aircraft being shot down, killing Iranians and Canadian citizens of Iranian descent. Next time it could be a warship that is struck; or a war-hungry Dr. Strangelove pressing the nuclear trigger; or a wrong intelligence input leading to wrong conclusions, unfolding strike, counterstrike and general war.
Trump’s illegal assassination of General Soleimani, that too on Iraqi soil, has added fuel to the fire lit by his sabotaging of the Iran accord. This time it did not lead to a larger conflagration. At the moment, only the Iranians seem to be the adults in the room wanting peace. But they will not do it at the cost of their right to technology and abandoning their missile deterrence. If the United States believes that more pressure will cause Iran to surrender, they have not understood the last four decades of Iran-U.S. history. Those who do not learn from history are forced to repeat it. But then, what do a real estate agent and a bunch of frat boys who are running the United States today know about history?

Enemies of Democracy: Neoliberalism and Authoritarian Finance

T. J. Coles

Democracy is supposed to mean rule by people. In the West, it means rule by upper classes via periodic representational charades in which candidates represent corporate interests and occasionally throw crumbs to the public to pre-empt full-scale revolution. But now even establishment institutions are worried about the implications of the lack of genuine democracy in so-called capitalist societies.
DEMOCKERY
Cambridge University’s Centre for the Future of Democracy expresses “deep concern” in its longitudinal study of global attitudes toward democracy, which are at a 25-year low. The US continues its “crisis of trust” as Europe endures a “chronic … democratic deficit.” So-called centrist parties, which are usually right of the public on economic issues, fail to maintain their positions. The public opt for either authoritarian parties who make life uncomfortable for liberal elites because their behavior is hard to spin, or so-called far-left parties (actual moderates) who pose a greater danger to liberal elites because they threaten a tiny fraction of their wealth and power.
The report notes that “[t]he deterioration has been especially deep in high-income, ‘consolidated’ democracies, where the proportion” of the disaffected “has risen from a third to half of all citizens.” It also says that “democratic governments simply have not been seen to provide effective policy solutions to pressing societal problems,” though it fails to add that doing so would contradict the demands of party investors, namely financial institutions and mega-wealthy donors. “[I]f satisfaction with democracy is now falling across many of the world’s largest mature and emerging democracies … it is not because citizens’ expectations are excessive or unrealistic.”
This is a break from media propaganda, which seeks to paint moderates like Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Bernie Sanders in the US as communist extremists who espouse radical and utopian policies.
Commenting on the study, the BBC notes that “[t]he UK and the United States had particularly high levels of discontent.” If we believe the cultural propaganda, the BBC is an institution buttressing democracy by giving enough information to allow the public to make informed choices. In the real world, the BBC is the propaganda outlet of the British ruling class. The article on the Cambridge study downplays the economic factors behind democratic dissatisfaction and instead emphasizes attitudes toward immigration and other issues.
Last year, the Hansard Society reported that in the UK, “Opinions of the system of governing are at their lowest point in the 15-year Audit series.” Just 34 percent of respondents support a particular party. Half of respondents agree that politicians don’t care about them and 75 percent agree that both main parties (Labour and Tories) are equally self-interested. More than half think that a rule-breaking leader is needed.
ECONOMIC VS. POLITICAL AUTHORITARIANISM
In authoritarian Russia, where Vladimir Putin has been in power for twenty years, dissatisfaction with democracy declined over time, rising slightly in recent years. What could explain this apparent discrepancy, where elected governments are considered undemocratic and dictators less so? Authoritarian regimes offer some sense of order, which is no justification for their existence, whereas “capitalist” “democracies” throw the poor and middle classes to the brutality of the market while insulating the wealthy.
Though the Cambridge study briefly discusses economic factors and the BBC minimizes them, it is worth noting the correlation between the specific forms of “capitalism” in the US and Britain, as compared to state controls used by more authoritarian regimes. Just a few months prior to the Cambridge study, the BBC quoted Professor Colin Mayer of the British Academy: “The UK has a particularly extreme form of capitalism and ownership … Most ownership in the UK is in the hands of a large number of institutional investors, none of which have a significant controlling shareholding in our largest companies. That is quite unlike virtually any other country in the world, including the United States.”
Workers have less and less control over their conditions and where people are self-employed, no control over market conditions.
In the US, President Trump likes to boast about employment being at record levels, but the Private Sector Job Quality Index reports a decline in standards since 2016 amid an overall 30 year reduction. Commenting on the situation, Forbes asks: “why is participation in the workforce so low?” The article makes no attempt to address the apparent contradiction that employment is at a 50-year high while millions of Americans have dropped out of the job market. The logical conclusion is that employment is artificially high because fewer Americans bother to look for work, i.e., they are not registered, and the ones that do often work poor quality jobs.
This is against a backdrop of continued wage stagnation and growing inequality. The Russell Sage Foundation notes that since the 1980s, the incomes of the “bottom-50th and middle-40th percentile adults increased by just 1 percent and 42 percent, whereas top-1 incomes rose by 205 percent.” Even corporate media report that more than half of Americans are just $1,000 shy of being in debt.
As corporate media focus on Trump’s personality, vulgarity, and Twitter activities, the Brookings Institute gets on with the real task of “Tracking deregulation” in the Trump era, which it favors: Allowing home loan banks to regulate themselves and lend to affordable projects at their own discretion; weakening health and safety regulations for miners; deregulating dental coverage options for federal employees; encouraging employers to opt for non-Affordable Care Act (ACA) insurance by allowing them to buy individual premiums; lengthening “short-term” insurance under the ACA; reducing training requirements for vehicle operators; removing driver resting periods on long-haul journeys; and on and on.
These policies will further widen the democratic deficit. Meanwhile, pro-business managers in the opposition Democratic Party work to undermine the most progressive candidate who has a realistic chance of getting the nomination.
CONCLUSION: FEELIN’ THE BERN
In 2016, most Americans rejected an authoritarian buffoon when Trump lost the popular vote by more than a million.He ended up in the White House anyway due to the historically racist Electoral College system. In the UK, just 13.9 million out of a potential voting population of 47 million put an authoritarian buffoon, Boris Johnson, into power due to the UK’s charade of a voting system.
Spooked by the prospect of a Bernie Sanders nomination—and, worse, potential Presidency—the failed Presidential candidate, former Secretary of State, Yale Skull and Bonesman, and current high-level Bank of America advisor, John Kerry, was reportedly overheard conceding that Sanders is likely to beat the current crop of Democratic candidates and that Kerry hoped to be able to raise cash from investors to beat him. Former New York Major, the multibillionaire Michael Bloomberg, is running on the Democratic ticket, despite being a slum landlord and using prison labor. At the Iowa Caucuses, a returning app produced by a company linked to the DNC and Hillary Clinton conveniently failed, as did officers’ efforts to call into Democratic Party HQ with the results. Confusion bought time for the likely loser, Creepy Joe Biden, the establishment’s most viable Sanders opponent.
The above actions reflect the desperation of the investment class who would rather stand characters like Creey Joe, Slumlord Bloomberg, and Skull and Bones Kerry than risk a mildly socialistic candidate coming to power and slightly raising taxes to provide free healthcare. But it also portends a fightback. When the Democratic Majority for Israel group released a video of alleged Democrat voters attacking Sanders as unelectable, Sanders raised an additional $1.3m in a day to maintain grassroots momentum. Despite a Bernie Blackout, with corporate media literally omitting the popular Sanders from their approval rating graphs, supporters on the ground continue the struggle.