29 Oct 2020

The Battle for the Soul of Islam

James M. Dorsey


Jordanian ruler Abdullah I bin Al-Hussein gloated in 1924 when Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the visionary who carved modern Turkey out of the ruins of the Ottoman empire, abolished the Caliphate.

“The Turks have committed suicide. They had in the Caliphate one of the greatest political forces, and have thrown it away… I feel like sending a telegram thanking Mustapha Kemal. The Caliphate is an Arab institution. The Prophet was an Arab, the Koran is in Arabic, the Holy Places are in Arabia and the Khalif should be an Arab of the tribe of Khoreish,” Abdullah told The Manchester Guardian at the time, referring to the tribe of the Prophet Mohammed. “Now the Khaliphate has come back to Arabia,” he added.

It did not. Arab leaders showed no interest in the return of the Caliphate even if many Muslim intellectuals and clerics across the Middle East and the Muslim World criticized Ataturk’s abolition of it. Early Islamist political movements, for their part, largely declared the revival of caliphate as an aspiration rather than an immediate goal.
A century later it is not the caliphate that the world’s Muslim powerhouses are fighting about. Instead, they are engaged in a deepening religious soft power struggle for geopolitical influence and dominance.

This battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates, propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim centre-right forces across the globe; Morocco which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shia Iran with its derailed revolution.

In the ultimate analysis, no clear winner may emerge. Yet, the course of the battle could determine the degree to which Islam will be defined by either one or more competing stripes of ultra-conservativism—statist forms of the faith that preach absolute obedience to political rulers and/or reduce religious establishments to pawns of the state. Implicit in the rivalry is a broader debate across the Muslim World that goes to the heart of the relationship between the state and religion. That debate centers on what role the state, if at all, should play in the enforcement of religious morals and the place of religion in education, judicial systems and politics. As the battle for religious soft power between rival states has intensified, the lines dividing the state and religion have become ever more blurred, particularly in more autocratic countries. This struggle has and will affect the prospects for the emergence of a truly more tolerant and pluralistic interpretation of one of the three Abrahamic religions.

An Ever More Competitive Struggle

A survey of the modern history of the quest for Muslim religious soft power reveals an ever more competitive struggle with the staggered entry of multiple new players. Initially, in the 1960s, the Saudis, with Pakistani and a degree of West African input, had the playing field more or less to themselves as they created the building blocks of what would emerge as the world’s most focused, state-run and well-funded Islamic public diplomacy campaign. At the time, Western powers saw the Saudi effort in fostering conservative Islam as part of the global effort to contain communism. Ultimately, it far exceeded anything that the Soviets or the Americans undertook.

The Saudi endeavor, in contrast to the United States that could rely on its private sector and cultural attributes, was by necessity a top-down and largely government-financed initiative that overtime garnered widespread public support. The bulk of Saudi money went to non-violent, ultra-conservative religious, cultural and media institutions in countries stretching from China across Eurasia and Africa into the Americas. Some recipients of Saudi largesse were political, others were not. More often than not, funding was provided and donations were made with the tacit approval and full knowledge of governments, if not their active cooperation.

Following the 1979 Iranian revolution, the kingdom’s religious outreach no longer focused on containing communism alone, and Saudi practice increasingly mirrored Iran’s coupling of religious soft power with hard power through the selective use of proxies in various Middle Eastern countries. Rarely publicly available receipts of donations by Saudis to violence-prone groups and interviews with past bagmen suggest that the kingdom directly funded violent militants in select countries in response to specific circumstances. This included Afghanistan during the anti-Soviet jihad in the 1980s, Pakistan to support anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian militants, Bosnia Herzegovina in aid of foreign fighters confronting Serbia in the 1990s, Palestine, Syria where Islamists were fighting the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Iraq wracked by an anti-Shiite insurgency and Iran in a bid to fuel ethnic unrest.

Money was often hand carried to recipients or channeled through businessmen, money exchangers and chosen banks. Receipts of donations to Sipah-e-Sahaba, a banned virulently anti-Shia group that attacked Shias in Pakistan, and its successors and offshoots, bear the names of a Saudi donor who is hard to trace. They suggest that the dividing lines between private and officially-sanctioned funding are blurred.

To be sure, the level of Saudi funding and the thrust of the kingdom’s religious soft power diplomacy has changed with the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The drive today is to project the kingdom and its Islam as tolerant, forward-looking, and outward- rather than inward-looking. Saudi religious outreach also aims to open doors for the kingdom through demonstrative acts like the visit to the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz in Poland by a delegation of 25 prominent Muslim clergymen led by Mohammed al-Issa, the head of the Muslim World League. The League, which was once a prime vehicle for the kingdom’s global promotion of religious ultra-conservatism, has also been forging closer ties with Jewish and Christian evangelist communities.

Indeed, Prince Mohammed has turned the League into a propagator of his vaguely defined notion of a moderate Islam. Meantime, Saudi Arabia’s retreat from religiously packaged foreign funding has created opportunity for the kingdom’s competitors.

Facts on the ground in the kingdom and beyond, nonetheless, tell at times a different story. Schoolbooks are being cleansed of supremacist and racist references in a slow and grinding process initiated after the 9/11 Al-Qaeda attacks in New York and Washington.

The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom said in its 2020 report that “despite progress in recent years, Saudi textbooks have seen some backsliding regarding language inciting hatred and violence toward non-Muslims. While the 2019–2020 textbooks showed marginal improvements in the discussion of Christians, textbooks still teach that Christians and Jews ‘are the enemy of Islam and its people,’ and that members of the LGBTQI community will ‘be struck [killed] in the same manner as those in Sodom.’”

Prince Mohammed’s nominal embrace of religious tolerance and inter-faith dialogue has produced far more public interactions with Jewish and Christian leaders but not led to a lifting on the ban on public non-Muslim worship and the building of non-Muslim houses of worship in the kingdom itself. Access to holy sites like Mecca and Medina remains banned for non-Muslims, as it has been for most of Islam’s history, and often entry into mosques is also barred.

While Saudi Arabia has implemented strict regulations on donations for charitable purposes abroad, the source and the channeling of funding to militants that serve the kingdom’s geopolitical purpose remains unclear at best. Militant Pakistani bagmen described in interviews in 2017 and 2018 the flow of large amounts of money to ultra-conservative madrassas that dot Pakistan’s borders with Iran and Afghanistan. They said the monies were channeled through Saudi nationals of Baloch origin and often arrived in suitcases in an operation that they believed had tacit Saudi government approval. The monies, according to bagmen interviewed by this writer, were being transferred at a time when U.S. policymakers like former national security adviser John Bolton were proposing to destabilize the Iranian regime by supporting ethnic insurgencies. Saudi Arabia was also publicly hinting that it may adopt a similar strategy.

No Longer in A Class of Its Own

The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran marked the moment when Saudi religious soft power was no longer in a class of its own. It also launched a new phase in Saudi-Iranian rivalry that progressively has engulfed the Middle East and North Africa and beyond. Competition for religious soft power and influence is a fixture of the rivalry. So is the marked difference in Saudi and Iranian concepts of religious soft power.

Although both had sectarian traits, Saudi Arabia’s primary focus was religious and theological while revolutionary Iran’s was explicitly political and paramilitary in nature and geared toward acquiring hard power. Iranian outreach in various Arab countries focused on cultivating Shiite militias, not on greater religious piety.

The Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s in which Sunni Gulf states funded Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s war machine shifted Iran’s focus from export of its revolution to a greater emphasis on Iranian nationalism. Iran also moved to nurturing Shiite militias that would constitute the country’s first line of defense.

Gone were the days of Tehran’s emphasis on groups like the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain that gathered regularly in a large sitting room in the home of Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, a one-time designated successor of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the exploits of his son, Mohammed Montazeri, who was nicknamed Ayatollah Ringo and founded an armed group in Lebanon and Syria that aimed to liberate Muslim lands.

The watershed shift has shaped Iran and its religious strategy, including its support for and recruitment of Shiite and other groups and communities in the Middle East, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. It constituted Iran’s soft and hard power response to the Saudi effort to infuse Muslim communities worldwide with an ultra-conservative, anti-Shiite, anti-Iranian interpretation of the faith. Elsewhere, like in Southeast Asia and West Africa, the thrust of Iranian religious diplomacy was, like much of the Saudi effort, focused primarily on religious and social issues.

The shift was evident early on in emotive debates in Iran’s parliament in 1980 about the utility of the occupation of the U.S. embassy in Tehran at a time that Iran was at war with Iraq. Men like Hojatoleslam Hashemi Rafsanjani, the speaker of the parliament who later became President, Ayatollah Mohammed Beheshti, the number two in the Iranian political hierarchy at the time, and chief jurist Ayatollah Sadegh Khalqali, who was known as the hanging judge for his penchant for the death penalty, argued unsuccessfully in favour of a quick resolution of the embassy crisis so that Iran could focus on the defense of its territory and revolution.

The debates signalled a shift from what was initially an ideological rivalry to a geopolitical fight that continues to this day and that is driven by the perception in Tehran that the United States and the Gulf states are seeking to topple the Islamic regime.

An Ever More Complex Battle

If the first phase of the battle for the soul of Islam was defined by the largely uncontested Saudi religious soft power campaign, and the second phase began with the emergence of revolutionary Iran, the third and most recent phase is the most complex one, not only because of the arrival on the scene of new players but also because it entails rivalries within rivalries.

The new players are first and foremost the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, and Indonesia. Their entry into the fray has further blurred the dividing lines between purely religious and cultural soft power, nationalism, and the struggle within Muslim societies over values, including various freedoms, rights, and preferred political systems.

The third phase is complicated by the fact that all of the players with the exception of Indonesia have embraced Iran’s model of coupling religious soft power with hard power and the use of proxies to advance their respective agendas. This is apparent in the Saudi-UAE-led war to counter Iran in Yemen; Emirati, Egyptian and Turkish support for opposing sides in Libya’s civil war; and Turkish and Gulf state involvement in Syria.

The intensifying violence lays bare the opportunism adopted by most players. Saudi Arabia, for example, has been willing to forge or maintain alliances with groups aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood even though it has designated the organization as a terrorist entity, while the UAE, which claims the mantle of moderation but still supports the forces of Libyan rebel leader Khalifa Haftar whose ranks include a significant number of Salafist fighters.

The resurgence of political Islam as a result of the 2011 popular Arab revolts that toppled leaders in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen, fueled the worst fears of men like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, Egyptian General-turned President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed.

The upheaval also created an opportunity for the UAE, a country that prides itself on being a cutting-edge, cosmopolitan home to people from some 190 countries. It launched a multi-faceted effort to project itself as an open and tolerant society that is at the forefront of Islamic moderation and tolerance, and to respect religious diversity and inter-faith dialogue.

Bin Zayed’s acquiescence of the Salafis, who have sought to impose strict Islamic law on Haftar’s eastern Libyan stronghold of Benghazi, is based on their association with an ultra-conservative strand of the faith that preaches absolute obedience to the earthly ruler in power. That acquiescence contradicts Bin Zayed’s otherwise dim view of ultra-conservative interpretations of Islam like Wahhabism.

Speaking in 2005 to then U.S. ambassador James Jeffrey, Bin Zayed compared Saudi Arabia’s religious leaders to “somebody like the one we are chasing in the mountains,” a reference to Osama bin Laden who at the time was believed to be hiding in a mountainous region of Afghanistan. In an email to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman twelve years later, Yusuf al-Otaiba, a confidante of Bin Zayed and the UAE’s ambassador in Washington, asserted that “Abu Dhabi fought 200 years of wars with Saudi over Wahhabism.”

Al Otaiba’s comment came a year after the UAE, in a bid to undermine Saudi religious diplomacy, sponsored a gathering of prominent Sunni Muslim leaders in the Chechen capital of Grozny that effectively ex-communicated Wahhabism. Western officials refrained from publicly commenting, but they privately commended Emirati efforts to confront a worldview that they feared provided a breeding ground for social tensions and extremism.

Bin Zayed has played a key role in shaping Bin Salman’s policies to shave off Wahhabism’s rougher edges and to bring the UAE’s and Saudi Arabia’s religious soft power endeavors closer together. This alignment has resulted in what author Shadi Hamid calls non-political politicized Islam, or a “third trend in political Islam.” That trend, in the words of scholar Gregory Gause, “is tightly tied to state authority and subservient to it.”

Bin Zayed’s efforts have paid off. Despite ruling at home with an iron fist, Bin Zayed has been able to promote a state-controlled Islam that styles itself as tolerant and apolitical and preaches obedience to established rulers without addressing outdated or intolerant concepts embedded in the faith such as the notion of kafirs or infidels, slavery, and Muslim supremacy that remain reference points even if large numbers of Muslims do not heed them in their daily life.

His success, backed by armies of paid Western lobbyists, is evidenced by the fact that the UAE is widely perceived as a religiously tolerant, pluralistic, and enlightened society. This is in stark contrast to Bin Salman and Saudi Arabia’s reputational problems as a result of the 2018 killing in Istanbul of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the arrests and alleged torture of dissidents and others deemed a potential threat.

The UAE has also successfully projected itself as a secular state despite the fact that its constitution requires legislation to be compatible with Islamic law. In doing so, Emirati leaders walk a fine line. Islamic scholars with close ties to the UAE felt a need to rush to defend Al Otaiba, the UAE ambassador, against accusations of blasphemy for telling Charlie Rose in a television interview that “what we would like to see is more secular, stable, prosperous, empowered, strong government.”

To avert criticism, the UAE government rolled out Mauritanian philosopher Adballah Seyid Ould Abah who insisted that it was “obvious that (Al Otaiba) did not mean secularism according to the concept of ‘laícite’ or according to the social context of the term. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries in the region are keen on sponsoring a religion, maintaining its role in the public field, and protecting it from ideological exploitation which is a hidden manifestation of secularization.”

The UAE scored one of its most significant successes with the first ever papal visit to the Emirates by Pope Francis during which he signed a Document on Human Fraternity with Al Azhar’s Grand Imam, Ahmad El-Tayeb. The pope acknowledged the UAE’s growing influence, when in a public address he thanked Egyptian judge and his late advisor Mohamed Abdel Salam, who was close to both the Emiratis and Egypt’s Al-Sisi, for drafting the declaration. Abdel Salam ensured that the UAE and the Egyptian president rather than Al Azhar put their stamp on the document.

Creating the UAE’s Religious Ecosystem

To bolster the Emirati version of “counter-revolutionary” Islam and counter influential Qatari-backed groups associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and other strands of political Islam, Bin Zayed launched a multi-pronged offensive involving geopolitical as well as religious building blocks.

Bin Zayed drew a line in the sand when in 2013 he helped orchestrate a military coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brother who won Egypt’s first and only free and fair election. His engineering of the 2017 debilitating UAE-Saudi-Bahraini-Egyptian diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar, which is accused of being a pillar of political Islam, further strengthened Bin Zayed’s drawing of the religious soft power battle lines.

The battles that have ensued between the UAE and Qatar have been as much in the realm of ideology and ideas as they have been in war theatres like Libya, where the UAE has funded and armed Libyans fighting the elected, internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord based in Tripoli.

Bin Zayed signaled his ideational intentions with the creation of religious organizations of his own, the launch of Emirati-run training programs for non-UAE imams, and a visit a year after the 2013 coup in Egypt to Al Azhar’s sprawling 1000-year-old mosque and university complex in Cairo. The visit was designed to underline the Emirati ruler’s determination to steer Al Azhar’s adoption of moderate language and counter extremism and fanaticism.

Meantime, the new Emirati imam-training programs put the UAE in direct competition with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Morocco, major purveyors of Muslim clerical training. The UAE scored initial successes with the training of thousands of Afghan clerics and an offer to provide similar services to Indian imams.

The UAE’s growing world influence was evident in those who participated in the 2016 Grozny conference that effectively excommunicated Wahhabism. Participants included the imam of the Al-Azhar Grand Mosque, Ahmed El- Tayeb, Egyptian Grand Mufti Shawki Allam, former Egyptian Grand Mufti and Sufi authority Ali Gomaa, a strident supporter of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Al Sisi’s religious affairs advisor, Usama al-Azhari, the mufti of Damascus Abdul Fattah al-Bizm, a close confidante of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, influential Yemeni cleric Habib Ali Jifri, head of the Abu Dhabi-based Islamic Tabah Foundation who has close ties to Bin Zayed, Indian grand mufti Sheikh Abubakr Ahmad, and his Jordanian counterpart, Sheikh Abdul Karim Khasawneh.

The participation of El-Tayeb, a political appointee and salaried Egyptian government official, and other Egyptian religious luminaries who had supported Al-Sisi’s military coup, said much about the UAE’s inroads into Al Azhar, an institution that was for decades a preserve of Saudi ultra-conservatives. El-Tayeb signaled the shift when in 2013 he accepted the Sheikh Zayed Book Award for Cultural Personality of the Year in recognition of his “leadership in moderation and tolerance.”

El-Tayeb was lauded “for encouraging a culture of tolerance, dialogue and protection of civil society” at a moment that Morsi, the embattled Egyptian president, was fighting for his political life, and Bin Zayed was cracking down on Emirati Muslim Brothers.

The Grozny conference was co-organized by the Tabah Foundation, the sponsor of the Council of Elders, a UAE-based group founded in 2014 that aims to dominate Islamic discourse that many non-Salafis assert has been hijacked by Saudi largesse. The Council, like the Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, another UAE-funded organization, was created to counter the Doha-based International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS) headed by Yusuf Qaradawi, one of the world’s most prominent and controversial Muslim theologians who is widely viewed as a spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Tabah Foundation is headed by Saudi-based Mauritanian politician and Islamic scholar Abdullah Bin Bayyah as well as El-Tayeb. Before he established the Emirati-supported group, Bin Bayyah was vice president of Qaradawi’s European Council for Fatwa and Research, created to provide guidance to European Muslims through the dissemination of religious opinions. He also heads the Emirates Fatwa Council that oversees the issuing of religious opinions and trains and licenses clerics.

Bin Bayyah as well as other prominent traditionalists with past ties to the Brotherhood and/or political Islam, including Hamza Yusuf, an American convert to Islam, and Aref Ali Nayed, a former Libyan ambassador to the UAE, found common ideological ground in the assertion that the Brotherhood and jihadist ideology are offshoots of ultra-conservative strands of Islam. They saw the UAE’s position as rooted in decades of animosity between Al Azhar and the Brotherhood that Egyptian presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak exploited to counter the Brothers and Wahhabism.

Born Mark Hanson, Yusuf, a disciple of Bin Bayyah, is widely viewed as one of the most influential and charismatic Western Islamic preachers.

Nayed, an Islamic scholar, entrepreneur, and onetime supporter of the 2011 popular “Arab Spring” revolts, moved Kalam Research & Media, a Muslim think tank that he founded in 2009, to Dubai and aligned it with the UAE’s strategy.

“I believe that the entire region is undergoing an identity crisis in reality. Who are we? And what is the Islam we accept as our religion?… It is an existential question and there is a major struggle. I believe that there is fascism in the region as a whole that dresses up as Islam, and it has no relation to true Islam… Let me be explicit: there are countries that support the Muslim Brothers, and there are countries that are waging war against the Muslim Brothers… This is a regional war—we do not deny it,” Nayed told BBC Arabic.

Embracing Machiavelli’s notion of religion as a powerful tool in the hands of a prince, members of the Abu Dhabi ruling family, including Bin Zayed and his foreign minister, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, began courting Bin Bayyah in early 2013. They invited the cleric to the Emirates the same month that Morsi was toppled.

In a letter three months later to Qaradawi’s IUMS that bitterly opposed the overthrow of Morsi and condemned the Egyptian military government’s subsequent brutal repression of the Brotherhood, Bin Bayyah wrote that he was resigning from the group because, “the humble role I am attempting to undertake towards reform and reconciliation [among Muslims] requires a discourse that does not sit well with my position at the International Union of Muslim Scholars.”

Bin Bayyah published the letter to demonstrate to Emirati leaders that he had ended his association with Qatari-supported Islamist groups. He has since acknowledged that he speaks on behalf of the UAE government. The courting of Bin Bayyah emanated from Bin Zayed’s realization that he needed religious soft power to justify the UAE’s wielding of hard power in countries like Yemen and Libya. The timing of Bin Zayed’s positioning of Bin Bayyah as what Usaama Al-Azami, an Islamic scholar, dubs “counter‐revolutionary Islam’s most important scholar,” was hardly coincidental. It coincided with the gradual withdrawal from public life of the far more prolific and media savvy Qaradawi, who had become a nonagenarian.

Al-Azami argues that the UAE’s financial and political clout rather than intellectual argument will decide to what degree the Emirates succeed in their religious soft power campaign.

“The counter‐revolutionary Islamic political thought that is being developed and promoted by Bin Bayyah and the UAE suffers from certain fundamental structural problems that means its very existence is precariously predicated on the persistence of autocratic patronage. Its lack of independence means that it is not the organic product of a relatively unencumbered engagement with political modernity that might be possible in freer societies than counter‐revolutionary Gulf autocracies,” Al-Azami wrote.

Yahya Birt, a British Muslim scholar of UAE-supported clerics, argues that their need to project their sponsors at times is at odds with reality on the ground. “The extracted price of government patronage is high for ulema in the Middle East. Generally speaking, they have to openly support or maintain silence about autocracy at home, while speaking of democracy, pluralism, and minority rights to Western audiences,” Birt said.

“What does this mean for the soft power dimension of the UAE with projects such as the Forum for Promoting Peace? On the face of it the Forum seems benign enough: promoting ideas of peace, minority rights and citizenship in the Arab and Muslim world, but at what price? Any criticism of the UAE’s human rights violations…seems impossible,” Birt went on to say.

Longing For Past Imperial Glory

Slick public relations packaging is what gives the UAE an edge in its rivalry with both Saudi Wahhabism as well as with Qatar and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is hobbled by the image of an austere, ultra-conservative and secretive kingdom that it is trying to shed and a badly tarnished human rights record magnified by hubris and a perceived sense of entitlement. For its part, Turkey’s religious soft power drive has a raw nationalist edge to it that raises the spectre of a longing for past imperial glory.

Inaugurated in 2019, Istanbul’s Camlica Mosque, Turkey’s largest with its six minarets, symbolizes President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions. So does the controversial return a year later of the Hagia Sophia, the 1,500 old-church-turned-mosque-turned museum, to the status of a Muslim house of worship. In contrast to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the general who turned Hagia Sophia into a museum to emphasize the alignment with the West of the state he had carved out of the ruins of the Ottoman empire, Erdogan embarked on a campaign of support for mosques and Muslim communities in former imperial holdings and beyond.

In doing so, Erdogan was following in the footsteps of Ottoman sultans who sought legacy in grandiose mosque construction. He was signaling his intention to restore Turkish glory by positioning his country as the leader of the Islamic world, willing and able to defend Muslims across the globe. His was a worldview outlined by Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan’s onetime prime and foreign minister, who argued that Turkey’s geography, history, and religious and cultural agency empowered it to be a regional hegemon.

Erdogan underlined the importance of religious soft power in his geopolitical strategy by granting his Religious Affairs Department or Diyanet a key role in foreign and aid policy. Established by Ataturk in 1924 to propagate a statist, moderate form of Islam that endorsed secularism, Erdogan infused the directorate with his version of political Islam.

Erdogan harnessed the Diyanet to legitimize his military escapades in Syria, Libya, and Iraq in much the same way that Iran and now the UAE blends hard power with religious soft power. Diyanet regularly instructs imams at home and abroad to recite a Quranic verse, Sura Al-Fath or the Verse of the Conquest, to legitimize the Turkish president’s adventures. The sura conveys a message of victory and conquest as well as the favor God conferred upon the Prophet Mohammed and his followers. It promises increased numbers of faithful as well as forgiveness of worldly mistakes by those who do jihad on the path of God.

The construction of mosques and the dispatch of Diyanet personnel who serve as imams, religious counselors, and political commissars have been an important component of a multi-pronged Turkish strategy to build influence. The strategy also included development and humanitarian aid, the funding and building of infrastructure, private sector investment, and the opening of universities.

The meshing of religious soft power and aid has served Turkey well. Perhaps nowhere more so than in Somalia where US$1 billion in aid channelled through Diyanet and other NGOs funded the building of the Recep Tayyip Erdogan Hospital in the capital Mogadishu and the establishment of Turkey’s foremost foreign military base. Somalia is at the eastern end of a major Turkish diplomatic, economic and cultural push across the African continent that is part of policy designed to position Turkey as a major Middle Eastern, Eurasian and African player.

The price tag attached to Turkish largesse often was that beneficiaries handed over schools operated by the exiled preacher Fethullah Gulen, a onetime Erdogan ally who Turkish officials accuse of building a state within a state and engineering the 2016 failed military attempt to unseat Erdogan with the backing of the UAE. Beneficiaries were often required to extradite suspected Gulen followers and look the other way when Turkish intelligence agents kidnapped alleged followers of the preacher and return them to Turkey.

Turkey’s quest for religious soft power kicked into high gear in the wake of the failed 2016 coup with Erdogan repeatedly defining Turkish identity as essentially Ottoman. It is an identity that obliged Turkey in Erdogan’s view to come to the defense of Muslims around the world, starting with the 45 modern-day states that once were Ottoman territory. Erdogan, for instance, embraces Palestinian nationalist aspirations as well as Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, and the struggle for independence of Kosovo because they are Muslim. Erdogan is not the first Turkish leader to root Turkey’s Islamic identity in its Ottoman past.

So did Turgut Ozal, who in the 1980s and early 1990s put Turkey on the path towards an export-driven free market economy. Ozal, as president, also pioneered the opening to post-Soviet Central Asia and encouraged Turkish investment in the Middle East and North Africa. But he shied away from de-emphasizing Turkey’s ties to the West. Erdogan’s contribution has been that by breaking with Turkey’s Kemalist past, he was able to put Islam as a religion and a foundational civilization at the core of changing Turkish educational and social life and positioning the country on the international stage.

If Ozal, a former World Banker, was the more cosmopolitan expression of Turkish Islamism, Erdogan veered towards its more exclusivist, anti-Western bent. Ozal embraced Westernization as empowering Turkey. Erdogan rejected it because it deprived the state of its religious legitimacy, ruptured historic continuity, and produced a shallow identity. It is a strategy that has paid dividends. Erdogan emerged as the most trusted regional leader in a 2017 poll that surveyed public opinion in 12 Middle Eastern countries. Forty percent of the respondents also recognized Erdogan as a religious authority even though he is not an Islamic scholar.

The irony of Erdogan’s fallout with Gulen as well as the souring of Turkish-Saudi relations, initially as a result of Turkish suspicions of Gulf support for the failed coup and the 2018 killing in Istanbul of Khashoggi, is that both the Turkish preacher and the Saudi journalist were nurtured in Saudi-backed organizations associated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Gulen played a key role in the 1960s in the founding of the Erzurum branch of the Associations for the Struggle against Communism, an Islamist-leaning Cold War Turkish group that had ties to Saudi Arabia. Erdogan, former Turkish president Abdullah Gul and former parliament speaker Ibrahim Karatas, among many others, were formed in nationalist and Islamic politics as members of the Turkish National Students Union, which represented the Muslim World League in Turkey.

Turkey has a leg up on its competitors in the Balkans, Central Asia, and Europe. Centuries of Ottoman rule as well as voluntary and forced migration have spawned close ethnic and family ties. Millions of Turks pride themselves on their Balkan roots. The names of Istanbul neighbourhoods, parks and forests reflect the Balkans’ Ottoman history. Central Asians identify themselves as Turkic, speak Turkic languages and share cultural attributes with Turks.

In Europe, Turkish operatives often enjoy the goodwill of large well-integrated Diaspora communities even if the fault lines run deep between Turks and Kurds opposed to the Turkish government’s repression of Kurdish political aspirations.

Turkey’s Achilles Heel may be that the Ottoman-style Islam it projects is a misreading of the empire’s history. In another twist of irony, Erdogan embraced a Kemalist vision of the Ottomans as a religiously driven empire rather than one that perceived itself as both Muslim and European and that was pragmatic and not averse to aspects of secularism. It is that misreading that in the words of Turkey scholar Soner Cagaptay has produced “an ahistorical, political Islam-oriented, and often patronising foreign policy concoction” and has informed Turkey’s soft power strategy.

Turkey has sought to bolster its bid for religious soft power by positioning itself alongside Malaysia as the champion of the rights of embattled Muslim communities like Myanmar’s Rohingya. Turkey’s claim to be the defender of the Muslim underdog is however called into question by its refusal, with few caveats, to criticize the brutal crackdown on Turkic Muslims in China’s northwestern “autonomous region” of Xinjiang.

Turkey’s perfect opportunity to project itself arose with Gulf acquiescence to the U.S.’s official recognition of Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, as well the launch of a peace plan that buried hopes for a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. To the chagrin of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Turkey convened a summit in Istanbul of the Riyadh-based, Saudi-dominated Organization of Islamic Cooperation that groups 54 Muslim countries to denounce the U.S.’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Erdogan vowed two years later to prevent Israel from annexing parts of the West Bank and declared that Jerusalem was “a red line for all Muslims in the world.” Erdogan has also condemned the UAE and Bahrain’s recent diplomatic recognition of Israel even though he has never reversed Turkey’s own ties with the Jewish state.

The New Kid on the Block

Indonesia, the new kid on the block in the competition for Muslim religious soft power and leadership, has proven to be a different kettle of fish. Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Muslim movement, rather than the government of President Joko Widodo, has emerged as a formidable contender, one that is capable of operating on the same level as the states with which it competes.

As a result, the Indonesian state takes a back seat in the global competition among Muslims. It benefits from its close ties to Nahdlatul Ulama as well as the movement’s ability to gain access to the corridors of power in world capitals, including Washington, London, Berlin, Budapest, the Vatican, and Delhi. Nahdlatul Ulama was instrumental in organizing a visit to Indonesia in 2020 by Pope Francis that had to be postponed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The movement also forged close working ties to Muslim grassroots communities in various parts of the world as well as prominent Jewish and Christian groups. Nahdlatul Ulama’s growing international influence and access was enabled by its embrace in 2015 of a concept of “Nusantara (archipelago) Islam” or “humanitarian Islam” that recognized the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights. The movement has also gone beyond paying lip service to notions of tolerance and pluralism with the issuance of fatwas intended to re-contextualize the faith by eliminating categories like infidels.

Nahdlatul Ulama’s evolution towards a process of re-contextualization of Islam dates back to a 1992 gathering of religious scholars chaired by Abdurrahman Wahid, the group’s leader at the time and later president of Indonesia. The gathering noted that “the changing context of reality necessitates the creation of new interpretations of Islamic law and orthodox Islamic teaching.”

Speaking to a German newspaper 25 years later, Nahdlatul Ulama General Secretary Yahya Cholil Staquf laid out the fundamental dividing line between his group’s notion of a moderate Islam and that of Indonesia’s rivals without identifying them by name. Asked what Islamic concepts were problematic, Staquf said: “The relationship between Muslims and non-Muslims, the relationship of Muslims with the state, and Muslims’ relationship to the prevailing legal system wherever they live … Within the classical tradition, the relationship between Muslims and non-Muslims is assumed to be one of segregation and enmity… In today’s world such a doctrine is unreasonable. To the extent that Muslims adhere to this view of Islam, it renders them incapable of living harmoniously and peacefully within the multi-cultural, multi-religious societies of the 21st century.”

Widodo initially hoped that Nahdlatul Ulama’s manifesto on humanitarian Islam would empower his government to position Indonesia as the beacon of a moderate interpretation of the faith. Speaking at the laying of the ground stone of the International Islamic University (UIII) in West Java, Widodo laid down a gauntlet for his competitors in the Middle East by declaring that it was “natural and fitting that Indonesia should become the (authoritative) reference for the progress of Islamic civilization.”

Widodo saw the university as providing an alternative to the Islamic University of Medina, that has played a key role in Saudi Arabia’s religious soft power campaign, and the centuries-old Al Azhar in Cairo, that is influenced by financially-backed Saudi scholars and scholarship as well as Emirati funding. The university is “a promising step to introduce Indonesia as the global epicenter for ‘moderate’ Islam’,” said Islamic philosophy scholar Amin Abdullah.

Saudi and Emirati concerns that Indonesia could emerge as a serious religious soft power competitor were initially assuaged when Widodo’s aspirations were thwarted by critics within his administration. A six-page proposal to enhance Indonesian religious soft power globally put forward in 2016 by Nahdlatul Ulama at the request of Pratikno, Widodo’s minister responsible for providing administrative support for his initiatives, was buried after the foreign ministry warned that its adoption would damage relations with the Gulf states.

That could have been the end of the story. But neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE anticipated Nahdlatul Ulama’s determination to push its concept of humanitarian Islam globally, including at the highest levels of government in western capitals as well as in countries like India. Nor did they anticipate Mr. Widodo’s willingness to play both ends against the middle by supporting Nahdlatul Ulama’s campaign while engaging on religious issues with both the Saudis and the Emiratis.

The degree to which Nahdlatul Ulama is perceived as a threat by the UAE and Saudi Arabia is evident in battles in high level inter-faith meetings convened by the Vatican, U.S. Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback, and others over principles like endorsement of the UN human rights declaration.

Nahdlatul Ulama’s rise to prominence was also what persuaded Muhammad bin Abdul Karim Al-Issa, the head of the Muslim World League, to visit the Indonesian group’s headquarters in Jakarta in early 2020. It was the first visit to one of the world’s foremost Islamic organizations in the League’s almost 60-year history. The visit allowed him to portray himself as in dialogue with Nahdlatul Ulama in his inter-faith contacts as well as in conversation with Western officials and other influential interlocutors.

Al-Issa had turned down an opportunity to meet two years earlier when a leading Nahdlatul Ulama cleric and he were both in Mecca at the same time. He told a Western interlocutor who was attempting to arrange a meeting that he had “never heard” of the Indonesian scholar and could not make time “due to an extremely previous busy schedule of meetings with international Islamic personalities” that included “moderate influential figures from Palestine, Iraq, Tunisia, Russia and Kazakhstan.”

Saudi Arabia was forced several months later in the run-up to the 2019 Indonesian presidential election to replace its ambassador in Jakarta, Osama bin Mohammed Abdullah Al Shuaib. The ambassador had denounced in a tweet—that has since been deleted—Ansor, the Nahdlatul Ulama young adults organization, as heretical and he had supported an anti-government demonstration.

Nahdlatul Ulama’s ability to compete is further evidenced by its increasingly influential role in Centrist Democrat International or CDI, the world’s largest alliance of political parties, that grew out of European and Latin American Christian Democratic movements. Membership in CDI of the National Awakening or PKB, the political party of Nahdlatul Ulama, arguably gives it a leg up in the soft power competition with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which both ban political parties. Meantime, the PKB is far more pluralistic than Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has shown increasingly authoritarian tendencies.

CDI’s executive committee met in the Javan city of Yogyakarta in January 2020. Participants included prominent Latin American leaders and former heads of state, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa and Elmar Brock, a close associate of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Nahdlatul Ulama’s sway was apparent in CDI’s adoption of a resolution that called for adherence to universal ethics and humanitarian values based on Western humanism, Christian democracy, and Humanitarian Islam. The resolution urged resistance to “the emergence of authoritarian, civilizationalist states that do not accept the rules-based post-WWII order, whether in terms of human rights, rule of law, democracy or respect for international borders and the sovereignty of other nations.”

Nahdlatul Ulama benefits from what journalist Muhammad Abu Fadil described as rejection of an “Arab face of Islam” that in his words was “hopelessly contorted by extremism” in Western perceptions. Abu Fadil suggested that “certain elements in the West have become interested in ‘Asian Islam,’ which appears to be more moderate than Arab Islam; less inclined to export radical ideology; less dominated by extremist interpretations of religion; and possessed of a genuine and sincere tendency to act with tolerance.”

Conclusion

A major battle for Muslim religious soft power that pits Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, and Indonesia against one another is largely about enhancing countries’ global and regional influence. This battle has little to do with implementing notions of a moderate Islam in theory or practice despite claims by the various rivals, most of which are authoritarian states with little regard for human and minority rights or fundamental freedoms.

Muslim-majority Indonesia, the world’s third largest democracy, is the odd-man out. A traditionalist and in many ways conservative organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest Muslim movement, has garnered international respect and recognition with its embrace of a Humanitarian Islam that recognizes the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the principles enshrined in it and has taken tangible steps to address Islamic concepts that it considers outdated. In doing so, Nahdlatul Ulama has emerged as a formidable challenger to powerful state actors in the battle for the soul of Islam. But it still faces the challenge of overcoming the Arab view, expressed by Abdullah I of Jordan after the end of caliphate, that Muslim leadership must somehow return to the Arabs.

Faceboook moderators forced to return to offices as COVID-19 continues to spread

Mike Ingram


Facebook moderators are being forced to return to offices in Europe and the US as positive tests for COVID-19 continue to surge.

An October 20 report by nonprofit publication Rest of World states that workers in Hyderabad, India were forced to return to offices this summer, as COVID-19 cases were surging in that country. The workers are employed by Genpact, which employs around 1,600 moderators in India. Genpact is one of several companies Facebook uses around the world to outsource content moderation. Some 15,000 workers worldwide are employed as moderators for Facebook.

Software programer at work (Image Credit Envato)

Facebook claims that moderators are working in person only if they choose to do so, but Rest of World cited current and former Genpact employees who said people are being forced to go to work. The report cites a senior moderator who said Genpact employees were informed they could lose their jobs if they didn’t come to the office. “The operations team told them these are important orders” the moderator said, adding that there was a threatening factor behind it.

In the middle of a pandemic and economic recession, workers are fearful of losing their jobs. Rest of World cites a former content moderator who left Genpact after being sent home in March at the beginning of the lockdown but remains in contact with former coworkers. “Genpact is doing it because there aren’t any jobs and people are getting laid off. So people are too scared to actually say anything. And I think that’s what Genpact is taking advantage of,” the worker said.

Prior to the pandemic, moderators in India were paid less than $2 an hour and wages were supplemented by food benefits, either through in-office meals or through a prepaid meal card. When Genpact employees were sent home during the COVID-19 lockdown, that benefit disappeared. Genpact says it is continuing to provide packed meals and snacks for on-site workers. The potential loss of this essential subsidy is added pressure on workers to show up at the office despite concerns for their health.

In Dublin, Ireland, moderators working for contractor CPL were forced to go into the office as the country returned to its highest tier of COVID lockdown after the company categorized them as “essential workers.” The Guardian reported moderators employed by the contractor CPL said they were told they are considered essential workers and therefore not bound by Ireland’s Level 5 restrictions, which require everyone to work from home unless they are “providing an essential purpose for which your physical presence is required.”

Facebook announced in August that employees were allowed to work remotely until July 2021, but this does not include moderators, who review the millions of reports flagged to them by Facebook users, as they are predominantly employed thorough third-party contractors. “People are feeling that they’re being exploited,” a moderator anonymously told the Guardian. “Facebook themselves, they are making almost all their employees work from home. Even people working in the same team, on the same project as us—we’re doing the same work—Facebook is letting them work from home and not us.”

When CPL recalled staff to the office in July, as the Irish lockdown was partially lifted, the company made no distinction regarding the topics moderators were working on. All staff were informed, “Your role involves ensuring the safety of online communities and the internet” and that the “company has concluded that your job cannot be undertaken from home.”

Moderators were told that in the event of a confirmed COVID case, the office would be closed for 72 hours but since the end of September, “there have been three such cases, according to emails sent to staff, but the office has not closed,” according to the Guardian.

Within days of contractors employed by Accenture returning to its Facebook facility in Austin, Texas, at least one worker had tested positive. “We have learned that one of our people working Facebook Domain 8 on the 12th floor has tested positive for COVID-19,” according to an email cited by the Intercept. “This individual was last in the office on 10/13, became symptomatic on 10/14 and received a positive test result on 10/16. Currently, this person is in self-quarantine.”

Earlier the Intercept reported that it had obtained an audio recording of an October 2 virtual meeting in which an Accenture manager said, “Some of the questions we’re getting are what happens when I get sick, or what happens when somebody in the office gets sick,” adding, “So now I’m going to dive in to, you know, how Accenture handles these situations. Some of you have been in buildings where there have been notifications sent that somebody has tested positive, and that is a reality of where we’re at today, and that will happen as people test positive, and it’s not necessarily something to worry about”—audio cuts out briefly—“been in direct contact.”

Facebook has said that moderators working on sensitive topics, such as terrorism or self-harm, were not allowed to do so from home, citing concern for their mental health while working in isolation. A February 2019 report in the Verge, titled “The Trauma Floor: The secret lives of Facebook moderators in America,” reports on working conditions for moderators at Cognizent in Phoenix, Arizona and Tampa, Florida: “Collectively, the employees describe a workplace that is perpetually teetering on the brink of chaos,” the authors state. They describe a place where “team leaders micromanage content moderators’ every bathroom and prayer break,” and where “people develop severe anxiety while still in training, and continue to struggle with trauma symptoms long after they leave; and where the counseling that Cognizant offers them ends the moment they quit—or are simply let go.”

Priceless artefacts vandalised in Berlin museums

Stefan Steinberg


Three of Berlin’s most prestigious museums were the targets of major vandalism October 3—the date of the annual Day of German Unity. A person or persons who remain unidentified sprayed a colourless, oily liquid on dozens of antiquities of enormous cultural significance in the various institutions.

The attacks on the artefacts, some of which are thousands of years old, took place in the Pergamon Museum, Alte Nationalgalerie and Neues Museum, which are all situated on Berlin’s world-famous Museum Island. The collection of museums has been recognised by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site and is visited by 2.5 million art lovers every year.

Pergamon Museum Berlin (Photo credit© Raimond Spekking / CC BY-SA 4.0)

Christina Haak, the deputy director of Berlin’s state museums, expressed shock at the vandalism, which affected a total of 63 works, including Egyptian sarcophagi. She noted that it was not the first time the museums had been targeted. During the summer, a number of acts of vandalism occurred outside the museums involving the ripping up of posters and the spraying of graffiti.

German police have declared they were investigating “in all directions,” but have been unable to identify the assailant(s), despite video camera footage allegedly featuring the person(s) behind the attacks.

While the police investigate “in all directions,” there is considerable evidence to indicate the involvement of far-right forces in the attacks. In particular, the Pergamon Museum has become a key target for conspiracy theorists and the far-right QAnon Internet community in recent months.

Just days before the attacks on the artworks were revealed by a journalist working for the newspaper Die Zeit, a QAnon channel posted the following text on Telegram: “The Satanists are now completely exterminated and their legacies like the Pergamon Altar and the countless obelisks worldwide will be destroyed for all time.”

One of the most prominent Germans connected to the QAnon movement is the television celebrity cook Attila Hildmann. He has been at the centre of a campaign against the museums for some time and is also a leading figure in protests against the anti-coronavirus lockdown measures in Germany. Hildmann has repeatedly posted vile and absurd Internet tweets describing the Pergamon Museum as the “throne of Satan and a site for child sacrifice.”

Neues Museum, Berlin (Photo credit–Gryffindor stitched by Marku1988)

On August 27, Hildmann recorded a video at night on Museum Island, declaring that the “international Satanist scene meets in Berlin” and calling upon his followers to storm the Pergamon museum.

The cookbook author also held rallies on the steps of Altes Museum. The museum reacted promptly with a large banner proclaiming “For cosmopolitanism and democratic values. Against racism, anti-Semitism, nationalism and agitation.”

Hildmann’s bizarre tweets have been shared and posted by the singer Xavier Naidoo who travels in the same far-right circles. Naidoo showed up at the Pergamon Museum on August 29—the date of the second so-called Querdenker (“lateral thinker”) demonstration, held to protest anti-pandemic safety measures.

Both Hildmann and Naidoo have made no secret of their support for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD—the largest opposition party in the German parliament) and have marched alongside leading AfD members on a series of Querdenker demonstrations.

Local AfD associations, for example, in Leipzig and Stuttgart, have shared tweets from QAnon sources regurgitating conspiratorial theories accusing former US president Barack Obama of criminal practices (“Obamagate”) and making Bill Gates responsible for the coronavirus pandemic.

For its part, the AfD has made no secret of its hostility to all forms of art and culture that fail to conform to the party’s advocacy of a thoroughly nationalist “German leading culture.”

In the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD released a platform calling for “museums, orchestras and theatres” to “promote a positive relationship to their own homeland,” and in 2019 the AfD proposed that theatres and opera houses in Germany should provide lists of all foreign artists performing at their venues.

In the last federal election, the AfD hung up large-format election posters with the slogan “Prevent Europe from becoming Eurabia!” The racist term “Eurabia” was used by the right-wing extremist Anders Breivik to justify his mass murder in Norway. The Christchurch, New Zealand, terrorist Brenton Tarrant used similar language to warn against the alleged impending takeover of “white” states by Muslims.

Ishtar Gate, Pergamon Museum, Berlin (Photo credit–© Raimond Spekking / CC BY-SA 4.0)

Leading AfD ideologue and parliamentary deputy Marc Jongen has posted on his website that “it would be an honour and a pleasure” to “tackle the removal of filth from the culture industry.” In the Bundestag Committee for Culture and the Media, Jongen argued that, with regard to cultural affairs, a one-sided concentration on the crimes of the Nazis was “false and harmful for a number of reasons.”

The AfD, with vigorous support from a broad swathe of the German media, has also been in the forefront of the anti-Semitic campaign to vilify the outstanding German pianist Igor Levit.

The AfD has been able to go onto the offensive on cultural issues because it relies on broad official support, not only from the ruling grand coalition, but also from the Left Party. The governing coalition has in large part adopted the positions and policies of the AfD and helped create the climate where far-right fanatical forces such as QAnon can gain support.

Berlin’s Museum Island is just a stone’s throw away from Humboldt University where the right-wing extremist professor Jörg Baberowski (“Hitler was not vicious”) continues to teach with the backing of the university’s Social Democratic president and the grand coalition government.

Across the street from Humboldt University’s main building is the square where the Nazis carried out one of their most egregious crimes against culture—the public burning of books.

The exact identity and/or mental state of the author of the assault on the Berlin museum artefacts remains unknown, but those responsible for the growing lurch to the right and authoritarianism in Germany are situated in the German parliament and ruling circles. Such attacks cannot be taken lightly. Workers and youth must rally to the defence of international culture and artists.

UK government calculates second wave of pandemic is “going to be worse this time, more deaths”

Robert Stevens


Tuesday’s total of 367 more deaths lost in the UK to coronavirus was the highest daily total since May. On Wednesday, a further 310 were reported dead. The 24,701 new infections recorded yesterday were over 1,816 higher than Tuesday.

The grim figures came as the Office for National Statistics announced that 61,116 people have died in cases where COVID-19 was stated on the death certificate. The ONS figures are two weeks out of date, and the true figure will be even higher. Even so, the ONS calculation is much higher than the highly manipulated daily figure tally provided by Boris Johnson’s Conservative government--which totaled 45,675 yesterday.

The ONS figures are proof of the deadly outcome of the government’s homicidal reopening of the economy from June, along with schools, colleges, and universities. However, the ONS figures are still lower than excess death figures—generally considered to be the most reliable indicators internationally—with more than 60,000 excess deaths, compared to previous years, having already occurred by May 11.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a news conference giving the government's response to the new COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, at Downing Street in London, Thursday March 12, 2020. (Simon Dawson/Pool via AP)

To meet the demands of the corporations for renewed profits, the government refuses to take the essential measures required to arrest the spread of the virus. It is proceeding with a series of ineffective Tier-based local lockdowns. Most of England is under the “High” Tier 2 but as infections mount, more than 8.7 million people will be under Tier 3 restrictions by the end of the week. This means people cannot mix with other households and pubs and bars are closed, but most workplaces remain open. Schools, that are among the main vectors for the spread of the virus in communities also remain open under Tier 3. The government’s own scientists are agreed that the Tier system cannot stop the spread of the virus.

The town of Warrington in Cheshire entered Tier 3 level Tuesday and the 828,200 population of Nottinghamshire will be under Tier 3 by Friday. A further five million people are set to be brought into Tier 3, with West Yorkshire’s population of over 2.3 million to be placed under it imminently.

The Scottish National Party government is playing the same role. Today it announces which parts of Scotland will be placed into five separate Tiers it has established. It is expected that main populated Central Belt, including Glasgow, Edinburgh, plus the City of Dundee, will be assigned only to level three to be in place next Monday.

These measures have been carried out weeks too late, with people dying preventable deaths.

On Tuesday, deaths in South Yorkshire, which includes Sheffield, Rotherham, Doncaster and Barnsley, passed 1,000 since the beginning of the pandemic. Five deaths occurred between the Royal Hallamshire and Northern General hospitals in Sheffield, four at Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals trust, and three at Barnsley Hospital. South Yorkshire was only placed under in Tier 3 and a limited lockdown last Saturday.

These deaths are the outcome of a herd immunity policy as the government repeatedly and wilfully ignored warnings from their own scientists, placing the health and livelihoods of millions at risk. Last month, Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance warned that there could be 200 dead a day from COVID-19 by mid-November—a tally that has already been nearly doubled. Yesterday, Professor Wendy Barclay, a SAGE member from Imperial College London told Times Radio, “The total lockdown that we had back in late March was enough to turn the tide, and get the virus back under control. So far, none of the other restrictions that we’ve seen and none of the other actions, seem to have done that.”

This has prepared the way for even more deaths than in the spring. On Wednesday, the Daily Telegraph led with a headline, “Second wave forecast to be more deadly than first”. The article reported that “Downing Street is working privately on the assumption that the second wave of Covid-19 will be more deadly than the first, with the number of victims remaining high throughout the winter.”

Daily Telegraph front page headlined, “Second wave forecast to be more deadly than first”

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has projected that the “course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring, but then remaining at this level for weeks or even months.” It noted that “Health officials expect the death toll to reach 500 a day within weeks.” The newspaper quoted a “well-placed source” who said, “It’s going to be worse this time, more deaths… That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again.”

There are already 10,000 people in hospitals in the UK receiving treatment for COVID-19. Asked yesterday on BBC Radio 4's Today, if there could be 25,000 people in hospitals by the end of November, SAGE member Professor Sir Mark Walport warned, “It's certainly not unrealistic to think about that." He added, “We are still relatively early in the second wave and, as we know, there's a significant lag—two to three, two to four weeks—between actually getting an infection and people potentially dying, and so the number of deaths is always lagging the number of cases that are reported at any one time, so there's little to feel reassured about.

Walport said, “There are still an awful lot of people out there who are vulnerable, it's not, as it were, that the disease has killed off everyone who is vulnerable, there are still very many people that are vulnerable and we know that only still a relatively small proportion of the population has had this infection.”

Sir Mark Walport (credit: BIS Digital Image Library )

Dr Gabriel Scally of the University of Bristol, and a member of the Independent Sage group told Sky News he agreed with SAGE’s worst case scenario and that “if the government go on the way they are doing, then we are going to see a very large number of deaths and we are going to have the rockiest possible period. I think it is going to be dreadful.”

Government ministers and a pliant media are seeking to divert attention from the carnage they have wrought, and served as propagandists for, through a campaign aimed at “saving Christmas”. Labour Party Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said that because the government had not put in place the limited national “circuit breaker” Labour had belatedly called for, "I’m worried now that what we’ll see is deeper, more drastic lockdown action over November and December, which sadly probably does put Christmas at risk”.

Neither SAGE or its critics in Independent Sage advocate a national lockdown of the type the government was forced to implement in March. They call for a time-limited national “circuit breaker” of “at least two weeks” (Scally, Independent Sage) along the lines of the 17-day lockdown imposed in Wales last week, or the similar one in Ireland.

Infections in schools are rocketing. According to figures compiled by the Tory Fibs twitter page, more than 6,000 schools have reported one or multiple infections.

Figures released by the Department for Education revealed that nearly a fifth of children were off school in self-isolation on October 22. Last week alone almost 600,000 secondary school pupils were forced into self-isolation for Covid-related issues. Contrary to government lies, younger children are being massively affected. Along with the more than 55 percent of secondary schools with at least one child self-isolating at home, 20 percent of primary schools are in the same situation. Overall, between 16 and 18 percent of schools had to send 30 or more children home.

Germany’s Verdi union stabs public sector workers in the back

Dietmar Gaisenkersting


After talks that ended late Saturday evening, Germany’s biggest public service employees union, Verdi, reached an agreement with the federal government and local authorities on a contract for 2.5 million workers. The deal struck by the union is scandalous, involving a minimal increase from the provocative initial offer made by the employers.

The short-term “warning strikes” of the past few weeks, in which tens of thousands proved their readiness to fight, were cynically used by the union to cement a result that was certain from the outset. Verdi leader Frank Werneke had already hinted shortly before the third round of negotiations that his union had abandoned its initial demand and was seeking to reach a deal on the employers’ terms in the shortest possible time.

Frank Werneke

The employers’ side had offered to increase wages and salaries over the next 36 months in three stages—starting in March 2021—by a total of 3.5 percent. Now, according to the deal struck, wages and salaries will increase by 3.2 percent in two stages over the next 28 months—i.e., until the end of 2022.

The public service employers’ association had also demanded there be no increase for the next six months. Verdi has now agreed that this period be extended by a further month. The old contract expired at the end of August 2020. The first increase of 1.4 percent will be effective in April of next year. The second increase of 1.8 percent will take place on April 1, 2022.

The figure publicly quoted by Verdi, an increase of 4.5 percent over 28 months, only applies to the lowest pay groups. Because the first increase consists of at least €50 and the lowest monthly salary is a meagre €1,929.88 (US$2,268.86), these workers will have received a total increase of just 4.5 percent by the end of the 28 months. Even for low earners, this figure has nothing in common with Verdi’s initial demand for 4.8 percent over one year.

Public sector employees will also receive a one-off payment this year. Called the Corona bonus, it amounts to €300 for higher-wage, €400 for middle-wage and €600 for lower-wage groups. Trainees in the municipalities will receive €225, those working for the federal government, €200. The existing contract for the employment of trainees and the regulation of part-time work for older employees is to be continued for the next 28 months.

Verdi divided the workforce by demanding more pay for employees in nursing care. Here too, the result is only slightly higher than the initial offer by the employers. According to Verdi, the overall increase for care staff is 8.7 percent and around 10 percent for intensive care workers, instead of the 8.5 percent offered by the employers.

These percentage increases are again calculated exclusively on the increases for the lowest pay groups. The monthly allowance in intensive care medicine will rise by around €50 to total €100, the alternating shift allowance increases by €50 to total €155.

Verdi boasted that the contract envisages the alignment of working hours in eastern Germany with those in the western part of the country to 39 hours per week by January 1, 2023—i.e., in more than two years. The employers’ side demanded the date of January 1, 2024. The deal means that wage levels in public services east and west will have remained unequal for “only” 33 instead of the 34 years since Germany’s reunification.

The special allowances in nursing care are to be financed partly at the expense of other groups of workers. Around 175,000 bank employees are expected to go another 10 months without a wage increase. On July 1, 2021, they are due to receive an increase of 1.4 percent and 1 percent a year later. In addition, bank workers will in future have part of their annual Christmas bonus converted into days off.

Public service employees at airports will be denied any wage increase; on the contrary, their salaries are to be cut. “Due to the collapse in passenger numbers,” Verdi and the employers’ side are seeking to conclude “an emergency contract agreement for airports in the near future, which will reduce personnel costs,” reports the employers’ association (VKA).

As was the case with the last contract, this latest one guarantees public administrations an extraordinarily long collective bargaining period. According to German labour law, workers are not allowed to take industrial action outside of the period of contract negotiations, and the union has signed a truce at a time when serious conflicts are expected as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The contract is due to run until December 31, 2022.

The German interior minister, Horst Seehofer (Christian Social Union), declared the deal was the only financially viable solution, while Ulrich Mädge (Social Democratic Party, SPD), VKA president and chief negotiator for the public employers’ side, spoke of an “economically tolerable agreement…which gives local employers planning security,” taking into account the financial problems arising from the pandemic. In total, the package will cost around €4.9 billion.

Some €4.9 billion spread over two and a half years for those employed in old people’s homes, hospitals, daycare centres, garbage collection, road services, health authorities, etc.! In fact, this amounts to just 0.36 percent of the €1.33 trillion that flowed into the accounts of the banks and corporations via the German government’s economic stimulus and coronavirus aid packages. That total does not even include the bond purchases made by the European Central Bank of €1 trillion and the €750 billion made available to the banks and businesses in a separate European Union aid package.

Now, those massive sums have to be squeezed out of public and private sector employees. This is behind the miserable deal for municipal and federal employees. Representatives of the public service employers have launched a veritable smear campaign against the workforce.

Chief negotiator Mädge, a Social Democrat and also a member of Verdi, warned that one could not distribute what was not there. Shortly before the third and final round of negotiations, the German media joined in, echoing the same theme. On the main television news, Kirsten Girschick from Bayerischer Rundfunk said the demands made by public service workers were “lacking in solidarity,” while strikes by daycare centre teachers, and bus and train drivers were “irresponsible.” The economy would shrink, she argued, and tax revenues would collapse.

Nikolaus Piper argued in similar fashion in the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The industrial action was “one of the most unnecessary and lacking in solidarity in German history.” The demands made by bus drivers, garbage workers and bank employees were “excessive,” given that “tax revenues were falling for municipalities. To demand a total of 4.8 percent more pay per year at a time when the German economy shrinks by 5.4 percent, you must be dreaming,” the journalist frothed.

The well-paid editors in leading daily newspapers and television stations, including those nominally in public hands, did not complain when the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz (SPD), and federal government pulled out a “bazooka” to fire off trillions of euros into the coffers of big business and the banks.

Once again, it has been shown that the working class confronts a broad front consisting of the main political parties, leading media outlets, big business and the unions.

Verdi also justified its sellout with reference to the poor economic situation. “Under current conditions, this is a respectable deal, tailor-made for the different occupational groups that were the focus in the contract bargaining,” proclaimed Verdi boss Werneke.

The reopening of schools and renewal of production by governments and the various companies are putting countless lives at risk in order to further boost the profits of corporations and banks, and recoup the billions handed out to major companies and banks. Employees in health care, nursing, food supply, logistics, transport and other vital services are exposed to extreme dangers every day due to the lack of proper protective measures.

In the course of the contract negotiations, however, Verdi failed to raise a single demand to protect the health and lives of public sector workers from the consequences of the pandemic.