China in Africa: COVID-19 and the Politics of Largesse

Raj Lakshmi

China has recently announced multiple financial initiatives with the purported aim of providing relief to debt-laden African countries. The initiatives are in response to these countries calling for debt suspension to mitigate the pandemic’s adverse economic impact. This commentary explores the three major Chinese initiatives—two debt relief packages and one financial assistance commitment—announced between April and June 2020, and Beijing’s potential motivations in offering them.

Three Initiatives

In April, the Chinese foreign ministry affirmed its intention to participate in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The DSSI provides temporary debt suspension for eligible countries that would have been unable to meet their dues between May-December 2020. However, the programme covers debt suspension for bilateral loans only. This leaves out private bondholders that constitute one-third of the total African debt. Addressing this concern, China has “encouraged” its private financial institutions to hold consultations with African countries to work out arrangements for commercial loans on a case-by-case basis.

On 18 May, at the 73rd World Health Assembly, President Xi Jinping promised to commit US$ 2 billion over two years to assist with COVID-19 responses and socio-economic development in the affected developing countries. Beijing can be expected to undertake a mix of bilateral and multilateral engagements in meeting this pledge. Given the existing pattern of counting every penny spent in Africa towards the fulfilment of the Forum On China-Africa Cooperation’s (FOCAC) commitments, it seems likely that these two commitments—both the G-20 initiative and the US$ 2 billion commitment—are not mutually exclusive.

The most recent initiative was announced by President Xi on 17 June, as part of the ‘Extraordinary China-Africa Summit on Solidarity Against COVID-19’. It entails the cancellation of interest-free loans to economically distressed African countries. The deferment of interest-free loans is not unusual for China. About US$ 3.4 billion worth of such loans were cancelled between 2000 and 2019, according to a recent report by the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University. Interest-free loans constitute only about 9 per cent of the total percentage of Chinese loans to Africa. A majority of them are concessional and commercial loans whose maturity remains largely unhindered and unaddressed.

Strategic Significance

China has made several efforts, chiefly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), to create an alternative economic architecture that attempts to undermine the primacy of existing infrastructure dominated by the US. The latest Chinese relief initiatives cannot be isolated from this bigger picture of great power strategic competition. Both relief initiatives announced between May-June have the potential to enhance China’s standing as a global provider of economic assistance in times of need—such as the ongoing pandemic.

China’s recent initiatives particularly appear to be directed towards reworking its image. Perception management is important to Beijing. It seeks to counter the unfavourable view of China’s debt-trap diplomacy among several countries and their policymaking elite. The international backlash against Beijing for its mishandling of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan has only exacerbated existing perception problems. A recent study conducted by the Pew Research Center shows the historic rise in international negative perceptions of and distrust in the Chinese leadership. Together, they have likely led China to seriously consider the need to address misgivings about its intentions—particularly in Africa, where Beijing is deeply invested both economically and politically.

Further, Chinese financial assistance is aimed at securing support from recipient African countries at UN platforms. In recent months, China’s authoritarian moves across the various regions under its control—notably Hong Kong—have invited widespread international criticism. Beijing is wary of the possibility of a diplomatic offensive led by Washington at international forums. It could be thus be seeking to maximise African support should such an eventuality arise at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Press releases by countries that have received Chinese relief, which have recorded their confidence in Beijing with regard to Hong Kong, indicate this trend. 

Conclusion

China’s pandemic-time largesse provides limited, short-term relief to the larger challenge of the African debt crisis. A closer inspection of these three initiatives reveals some glaring blind spots—such as private, concessional, and commercial loans—that are as yet unaddressed. Beijing, nevertheless, has its own set of objectives in offering such relief within the broader context of its ongoing efforts to boost its global standing.

Dumping Fukushima’s Water into the Ocean… Seriously?

Robert Hunziker

For nearly a decade the crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has been streaming radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean. As it happens, TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co.) struggles to control it. Yet, the bulk of the radioactive water is stored in more than 1,000 water tanks.

Assuredly, Japan’s government has made an informal decision to dump Fukushima Daiichi’s radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean. A formal announcement could come as early as this year. Currently, 1.2 million tonnes of radioactive water is stored.

The problem: TEPCO is running out of storage space.

Government of Japan’s solution:  Dump it into the Pacific Ocean.

Third-party expert solutions:  Build more storage tanks.

Environmental groups insist there is no reason why additional storage tanks cannot be constructed outside the perimeter of the plant. They accuse the government of seeking the cheapest and quickest solution to the problem. All along, authorities have promised the site will be safe in 40 years. Really, only 40 years!

According to IAEA’s Director General Grossi, who visited Fukushima in February 2020, dumping radioactive water that is mainly contaminated with tritium meets global standards of practice. (Source: Michael Jacob in Tokyo, What! Is Japan Really Planning to Dump Radioactive Water From Fukushima Into the Ocean? Sweden-Science-Innovation, June 10, 2020)

In that regard, advocates of nuclear power utilize a subtle storyline that convinces, and deceives, the public into accepting nuclear power, however reluctantly. It goes something like this: “There’s nothing to worry about. Nuclear power plants routinely release tritium into the air and water. There is no economically feasible way to remove it. It’s normal, a standard operating procedure.” Nevertheless, as shall be explained in more detail forthwith, there is nothing positive about that posture, absolutely nothing!

According to TEPCO, all radioactive isotopes will be removed, except tritium, which is hard to separate. Still, similar to all radioactive substances, tritium is a carcinogen (causes cancer), a mutagen (causes genetic mutation), and a teratogen (causes malformation of an embryo).

The good news: Tritium is relatively weak beta radiation and does not have enough energy to penetrate human skin. The principal health risks are ingesting or breathing the tritium.

TEPCO has deployed an Advanced Liquid Processing System that purportedly removes 62 isotopes from the water, all except tritium, which is radioactive hydrogen and cannot easily be filtered out of water.

However, the filtration system has been plagued by malfunctions. According to Greenpeace International, within the past two years TEPCO admitted to failures to reduce radioactivity to levels below regulatory limits in more than 80% of the storage tanks. Reported levels of Strontium-90 (a deadly isotope) were more than 100 times regulatory standards with some tanks at 20,000 times.

“They have deliberately held back for years detailed information on the radioactive material in the contaminated water. They have failed to explain to the citizens of Fukushima, wider Japan and to neighboring countries such as S. Korea and China that the contaminated water to be dumped into the Pacific Ocean contains dangerous levels of carbon-14. These, together with other radionuclides in the water will remain hazardous for thousands of years with the potential to cause genetic damage. It’s one more reason why these plans have to be abandoned.” (Source: Fukushima Reactor Water Could Damage Human DNA if Released, Says Greenpeace, The Guardian, October 23, 2020)

Cancer is the main risk to humans ingesting tritium. When tritium decays it emits a low-energy electron (roughly 18,000 electron volts) that escapes and slams into DNA, a ribosome or some other biologically important molecule. And, unlike other radionuclides, tritium is usually part of water, so it ends up in all parts of the body and therefore, in theory, can promote any kind of cancer. But that also helps reduce the risk because tritiated water is typically excreted in less than a month. (Source: Is Radioactive Hydrogen in Drinking Water a Cancer Threat, Scientific American, Feb. 7, 2014)

Some evidence suggests beta particles emitted by tritium are more effective at causing cancer than the high-energy radiation such as gamma rays. Low-energy electrons produce a greater impact because it doesn’t have the energy to spread its impact. At the end of its atomic-scale trip it delivers most of its ionizing energy in one relatively confined track rather than shedding energy all along its path like a higher-energy particle. This is known as “density of ionization.” As such, scientists say any amount of radiation poses a health risk.

According to Ian Fairlie, Ph.D. (Imperial College/London and Princeton University), a radiation biologist and former member of the 3-person secretariat to Britain’s Committee Examining the Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters: “At the present time, over a million tonnes of tritium-contaminated water are being held in about a thousand tanks at the site of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan.  This is being added to at the rate of ~300 tonnes a day from the water being pumped to keep cool the melted nuclear fuels from the three destroyed reactors at Fukushima. Therefore new tanks are having to be built each week to cope with the influx.” (Source: Ian Fairlie, The Hazards of Tritium, March 13, 2020)

Furthermore, radioactive contaminants in the tanks, such as nuclides like caesium-137 (an extremely deadly isotope) and strontium-90 (which is equally deadly) in reduced concentrations still exist in unacceptable high levels. According to Fairlie: “These problems constitute a sharp reminder to the world’s media that the nuclear disaster at Fukushima did not end in 2011 and is continuing with no end in sight.”

“There are no easy answers here. Barring a miraculous technical discovery which is unlikely, I think TEPCO/Japanese Gov’t will have to buy more land and keep on building more holding tanks to allow for tritium decay to take place. Ten half-lives for tritium is 123 years: that’s how long these tanks will have to last – at least. This will allow time not only for tritium to decay, but also for politicians to reflect on the wisdom of their support for nuclear power.” (Fairlie)

Meanwhile, over the course of seemingly endless years, Fukushima Daiichi remains “the world’s most dangerous active time bomb” for several reasons, and spent fuel rods are at the top of the list.

In addition to the 800 tons of lava-like molten fuel, aka: corium, (the big meltdown) in the three reactor containment vessels, the crippled reactor buildings contain more than 1,500 units of used nuclear fuel rods in open pools of water and must be kept cool at all times or all hell breaks loose. Loss of water from structural damage or another major earthquake (the structures are already seriously compromised) could expose the fuel rods, resulting in uncontrolled massive release of sizzling radiation that could be worse than the original meltdown, possibly exposing Tokyo to an emergency mass evacuation event with people running and screaming.

Tokyo Electric Power has plans for complete removal of the dangerous fuel rods by 2031. That work is being carried out remotely from a control room about 500 metres distance due to extraordinarily high radiation levels inside the reactor buildings.

Dismally, a perverse endlessness overhangs Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima Daiichi (2011), earmarking these nuclear power meltdowns as the worst industrial accidents in human history.

Yet, with 440 operating nuclear plants worldwide, and 50 new plants under construction, there are plans to build a few hundred more.

Anti-France protests draw tens of thousands across Muslim world

Abdus Sattar Ghazali 

A rift between the Muslim world and France is widening, as leaders and the public in Muslim countries respond to the October 2 speech of President Emmanuel Macron saying Islam was “in crisis” globally. The fallout deepened with renewed Macron support to show caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad and anti-France demonstrations on Friday in several Muslim countries.

Tens of thousands of Muslims, from Pakistan to Lebanon to the Palestinian territories, poured out of prayer services to join anti-France protests on Friday, according to media reports.

About 10,000 people marched through Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city. Demonstrations in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad turned violent as some 2,000 people who tried to march towards the French embassy were pushed back by police firing tear gas and beating protesters with batons, Al Jazeera reported

Crowds of demonstrators hanged an effigy of French President Emmanuel Macron from a highway overpass after pounding it furiously with their shoes. Several demonstrators were wounded in clashes with police as authorities pushed to evict them from the red zone, a security area that houses Pakistan’s diplomatic missions.

In Pakistan’s eastern city of Lahore, an estimated 10,000 followers of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik party celebrating the Mawlid, the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad, took to the streets. .

In Multan, a city in eastern Punjab province, thousands more torched an effigy of Macron and demanded that Pakistan sever ties with France and boycott French goods.

A few hundred demonstrators in Lebanon’s capital Beirut flocked toward the Palais des Pins, the official residence of the French ambassador to Lebanon, but found their way blocked by lines of police officers in riot gear. Waving black and white flags peoplr cried, “At your service, oh prophet of God.” Some slung stones at police who responded with smoke and tear gas, according to the Associated Press.

In Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, worshippers thronged a mosque after Friday prayers, chanting religious slogans and holding signs lampooning Macron. Turkey has led regional condemnation of the French president, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s verbal attacks on Macron prompting France to recall its ambassador to Turkey last weekend.

Hundreds of Palestinians also protested against Macron outside the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the third holiest site in Islam, chanting, “With our souls and with our blood we sacrifice for our prophet, Muhammad.” Some youths scuffled with Israeli police as they exited the esplanade into the Old City. Israeli police said they dispersed the gathering and detained three people, according to Associated Press.

Scores more turned out in the Gaza Strip, where the Hamas group organized anti-France rallies at mosques across the territory that it controls. Fathi Hammad, a Hamas official, addressed a demonstration at the Jabaliya refugee camp, vowing “to stand together to confront this criminal offensive that harms the faith of about two billion Muslims,” referring to depictions of the Muslim prophet. He reiterated Hamas authorities’ appeal for Palestinians to boycott all French products.

In a Friday sermon aired live on Egyptian state TV, the country’s minister of religious endowments appeared to denounce any violent retaliation for the cartoons. “Love of the prophet cannot be expressed by killing, sabotaging or responding to evil with evil,” said Mohamed Mokhtar Gomaa, addressing dozens of worshippers at a mosque in Egypt’s Delta province of Daqahleya.

In Afghanistan, members of Hezb-i-Islami set the French flag ablaze. Its leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, warned Macron if he does not “control the situation, we are going to a third world war and Europe will be responsible”. Cries of “Death to France” rang out in Afghanistan’s capital of Kabul and several other provinces as thousands filled the streets. Demonstrators trampled on portraits of Macron and called on Afghan leaders to shut down the French embassy, sever ties and ban French citizens from the country. In the country’s western Herat province, protesters hoisted an effigy of Macron on a crane and set it alight.

An estimated 50,000 people in Bangladesh marched after Friday prayers in the capital Dhaka. The angry protesters carried signs reading “World Muslims united,” “Macron will pay a high price,” “Stop Islamophobia,” “boycott French products” and “Macron is Satan.”

In Madhya Pradesh’s Bhopal, thousands of Muslims led by Congress MLA Arif Masood staged a protest against France, raising slogans against Macron, according to ZEE News.  An FIR has been registered against the Congress MLA and 2000 others who took part in the demonstrations. Protesters in Aligarh of Uttar Pradesh, raised slogans of the death sentence of the President of France. In a Muslim-majority district of India’s financial hub Mumbai, some 100 posters showing Macron with a boot on his face and calling him a “demon” were pasted on pavements and roads, according to Reuters.

Thousands in Somalia turned up for Friday prayers in mosques where sermons were dominated by curses and condemnation of Macron and his government. Abdirahman Hussein Mohamed,, a shopkeeper in the capital Mogadishu, set aside all French products including face wash, perfumes and other cosmetics with a large sign, “NOT FOR SALE”. “I will never sell those products…as long as France does not apologise. France insulted our Prophet,” Mohamed told Reuters.

Russian police detained around 15 people in Moscow after dozens gathered outside the French Embassy to protest against Macron. Some of the protesters stamped on portraits of Macron and chanted “Allahu Akbar, according to Reuters.

Several leaders in Asia, including Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressed solidarity with Macron and France, Reuters said.

“It is just the most callous and cowardly and vicious act of barbarism by terrorists and should be condemned in the strongest possible way,” Morrison said. “We share values (with France). We stand for the same things.”

He also condemned as absurd comments by ex-Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohammad that Muslims had a right to be angry and kill “millions of French people for the massacres of the past”. Mahathir said Friday that his comments were taken out of context and criticizes Facebook, Twitter for ‘deliberately’ deleting parts of his statement on Islamophobia.

The Qatar World Cup: Dreaming of Bridging the Gulf Rift

James M. Dorsey

With the 2022 World Cup in Qatar only two years away, and a resolution of the three-year-old Gulf rift nowhere in sight, government officials, soccer governance executives, and pundits are playing with the notion that the tournament could serve as an icebreaker in the dispute between Qatar and its detractors, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain.

It is a notion that is grounded in the long-standing illusion that soccer can drive events and in and of itself build bridges, even if parties are unwilling or unable to negotiate a resolution of their differences.

Sports in general and soccer in particular have only built political bridges in environments in which sports was just one node in a far broader, politically enabled process that sought to engineer a rapprochement. Perhaps the most obvious example of this was US–Chinese ping pong diplomacy in the early 1970s that helped engineer a thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing.

More typical examples are soccer creating a fleeting sense of unity or warming up, only for situations to revert to the status ante quo of confrontation, violence, and war. That is what happened in December 1914 when Germany and Britain declared a local ceasefire to play a match and then went back to fighting a world war for four more years.

It is also the story of Iraqis of all stripes rejoicing on the streets of Baghdad in 2007 after their country won the AFC Asian Cup, only to revert days later to years of sectarian infighting.

Fueling the illusion that the World Cup potentially is a central factor is the fact that the UAE has for the past decade sought to engineer a withdrawal of Qatar’s World Cup hosting rights.

As the UAE stepped up its campaign, some prominent Emiratis have suggested that a surrender or sharing of those rights with other Gulf states could put an end to the economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar imposed by its detractors in 2017.

“If the World Cup leaves Qatar, Qatar’s crisis will be over … because the crisis is created to get away from it,” said former top UAE security official, Lt. Gen. Dhahi Khalfan.

A mitigating impact of the World Cup on the rift in the Gulf would at best amount to the Gulf equivalent of the 1914 World War One ceasefire, or the temporary sense of unity in Iraq.

The World Cup would hardly help Saudi Arabia and the UAE save face, given that the rift was designed to force Qatar to subjugate itself to the dictates of the two states. Nor would it solve or contain what UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed sees as an existential threat: Qatar’s support for political Islam, its alliance with Turkey, and the existence of Al Jazeera as a free-wheeling television network.

The joker in the pack could be next month’s US presidential election. As president, Joe Biden is likely to be less protective and more critical of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well as Emirati Prince Mohammed’s military interventions and politically repressive rule at home.

Mr. Biden may also be more inclined to manage the use by Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent the UAE, of US-made weaponry in the Yemen war.

The World Cup could play a role in an environment in which the two crown princes seek to accommodate a Biden administration. That would reinforce the notion that sports and soccer are useful bridge builders only when the circumstances and political will mitigate towards bridge building.

Casualties mount in Armenian-Azeri war as US-brokered ceasefire collapses

Alex Lantier

Casualties are mounting rapidly in the war between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan over control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The conflict, which erupted in the run-up to the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, led to a 1988-1994 war that claimed 30,000 lives and forced over one million to flee their homes.

Thousands have already died in this year’s conflict, which broke out again on September 27, as both sides deploy heavy weapons and bomb each other’s populations. On October 10 and 18, Moscow brokered ceasefires between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an attempt to halt the fighting that failed only hours after going into effect. This week, Washington made its own failed attempt at brokering a cease-fire, which collapsed as Azeri forces advance into Armenian-held territory.

US officials tried to negotiate a deal after an appeal by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Putin declared in a televised meeting: “There are a lot of casualties from both sides, more than 2,000 from each side.” He said the number of deaths was “nearing 5,000,” a far higher number than what has been publicly admitted by either side, and said he speaks “on the phone several times a day” with both Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. Putin called on Washington to “work in unison” with Moscow to end the Caucasus fighting.

Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azeri Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov traveled to Washington in October and met with Deputy Secretary of State Stephen E. Biegun. The next day, the US State Department issued a statement praising the “intensive negotiations” it had overseen and announcing a “humanitarian ceasefire” taking effect “at 08:00 a.m. local time on October 26, 2020.”

In this image taken from footage released by Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, Azerbaijan's soldiers fire from a mortar at the contact line of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan. (Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry via AP)

US President Donald Trump published a tweet congratulating the US officials for negotiating the deal. “Many lives will be saved. Proud of my team [Secretary of State Mike Pompeo] & Steve Biegun & [National Security Council] for getting the deal done!”

Azeri officials however accused Armenian forces of shelling the town of Terter in “gross violation” of the ceasefire only minutes after the deal went into effect, while Armenian officials denied this and alleged that Azeri artillery had fired on their troops after the ceasefire went into effect.

Deadly attacks on civilians are mounting. On Wednesday, Azeri officials accused Armenia of firing Smerch missiles with cluster bomb warheads at the Azeri city of Barda. The attack reportedly hit a densely populated civilian neighborhood, killing at least 25 and wounding dozens more.

Armenian officials in turn accused Azeri forces of firing five missiles at Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, including one which destroyed the town’s maternity hospital. “This war crime, which is a gross violation of international humanitarian law, customary law, clearly shows that Azerbaijan’s target in Artsakh is the people—infants, mothers, the elderly,” the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared.

Azeri forces are advancing through the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave towards the Lachin Pass, which connects the enclave to Armenia proper. They have closed the distance between their troops and the pass from over 60 to 30 kilometers, placing the road link between Armenia and the Karabakh in range of Azeri heavy artillery. One report in the Bangkok Post claimed that Azeri troops had in fact already seized the pass—which would mean that half the civilian population of 146,000 that has not fled would be trapped, largely cut off from resupply.

There are several reports that Turkish and Israeli drones sold to Azerbaijan have given it a decisive military edge over Armenian forces. Hikmet Hajiyev, an Azeri official, told the Financial Times: “What we see is that there was a factor of invincibility that Armenia had tried to propagate over many years… but they relied too much on old military doctrine and thinking: tanks, heavy artillery and fortifications. It simply reminded us of the second world war. Instead, mobile forces, drone technology and a modern approach has been applied by us.”

The FT also cited Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, who said: “The Armenians have been caught flat-footed. One side is deploying modern weaponry, and the other is using weaponry from the 1970s and 1980s.” Watling added that given Azeri skill in using drones against Armenia, “it’s obvious that they have received significant levels of advice from Turkey.”

In this war, the nationalist conflicts encouraged by the Stalinist bureaucracy in the Soviet Union come together with the explosive geopolitical conflicts triggered by three decades of imperialist war since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. While Turkey aggressively backs the ethnic-Turkic Azeris, Russia and Iran have indicated sympathies for Armenia while trying to remain more neutral.

Tensions are mounting between these major regional powers, which are already in bitter conflict as a result of the decade-long NATO war in Syria. While the Turkish government supports NATO-backed Sunni Islamist militias aiming to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia and Iran have both deployed forces to Syria to support the Assad regime against the NATO powers. The longstanding Armenia-Azeri conflict over the Karabakh is further inflaming these tensions, which have seen Turkish and Russian forces directly clash inside Syria.

Azerbaijan’s increasingly powerful position in the conflict is stepping up pressure on the Russian and Iranian governments. After Azeri and Armenian shells and missiles landed in Iran, the Iranian government on Tuesday strengthened its air defense along its borders with Azerbaijan and Armenia. On Wednesday, it deployed ground troops to reinforce the border, as Iranian official Abbas Araghchi began a tour to visit Azeri, Armenian and Russian officials to try to work out a ceasefire.

This came as Moscow, who has a military base at Gyumri in Armenia, deployed border guards to the Armenian border with the Karabakh. This is apparently aimed at discouraging Azeri forces from launching an invasion of Armenia if they conquer the Karabakh.

Moscow and Tehran are both increasingly concerned at multiple reports that Syrian Islamist militias and Turkish private security forces are sending Islamists to Azerbaijan to fight Armenia. There are also unconfirmed reports that the Al Qaeda-linked Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), recruited among Muslims of China’s Uighur minority in Xinjiang, are deploying to Azerbaijan. These deployments all raise the question of whether CIA-backed Islamist militias could be sent to exploit religious or ethnic conflicts inside Russia, Iran or conceivably China.

These conflicts underlying the Azeri-Armenian war are made all the more explosive by the uncertainty hanging over the US presidential elections, what foreign policy American imperialism will pursue after those elections, and whether it will attack Iran. The Al Monitor news site noted: “Azerbaijan is supported by both Israel and Turkey, which causes concern for Iran, and therefore Iran has additional urgency in wanting to end the fighting as soon possible for fear of giving either country more influence on its borders, should a wider war break out.”

These conflicts underscore the extraordinary danger of escalation posed by the war in the Caucasus, and the necessity to mobilize workers and youth internationally in a socialist, anti-war movement against the risk of a large-scale regional or global war triggered by the conflicts in the region.

Hurricane Zeta leaves 2.6 million without power, kills six as record breaking US storm season continues

Alex Findijs

Hurricane Zeta made landfall west of Grand Isle, Louisiana Wednesday at 5 p.m. local time as a Category 2 hurricane with winds reaching 110 mph. Weakening to a tropical storm, it continued to tear across the American South on Thursday before dissipating over Delaware and the Atlantic Ocean Thursday night.

As of Friday, the storm had left 2.6 million people without power across seven states and killed at least six.

In New Orleans, the storm was the strongest in recorded history to have its eye pass directly over the city. Approximately 80 percent of the city of 390,000 people was left without power and it could take 3-5 days before it is fully restored.

Several states, including Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina, saw early voting polling sites disrupted by power outages throughout the day on Thursday. Friday, October 30, is the last day for early voting in Georgia, prompting calls for the Governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, to extend the deadline through 9 p.m. on Friday night.

Hurricane Zeta on October 28, 2020 (NASA)

Early voting cannot be extended by a day in Georgia, but each county can choose their own hours. This will leave tens of thousands of voters to wait in line and hope their polling places remain open long enough into the evening.

Zeta is the twenty-seventh named cyclone of 2020, tied with 2005 for the second highest recorded number in a year. It is also the record breaking eleventh hurricane to make landfall on the continental United States; the previous record was nine set 104 years ago.

Zeta was a remarkable storm in an exceptional cyclone season.

Only two other tropical storms since 1850 have landed as far west along the Gulf Coast this late in the year according to meteorologist Matt Lanza. Additionally, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell, no tropical storm has ever traveled across Northwestern South Carolina and Southwestern North Carolina in or after October.

While the 2020 hurricane season was expected to be above average, the number of tropical storms has defied all expectations.

On April 2, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project forecast 16 named storms and eight hurricanes. On May 21, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a prediction of an above-normal season with a 70 percent chance of 13 to 19 named storms, including six to ten hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.

By August 6, NOAA had updated its forecast to an “extremely active” season with 19 to 25 named storms and 11 hurricanes.

With a month left in the hurricane season and the possibility of further storms forming as late as December, it is very likely that 2020 will become the most active hurricane season in recorded history.

There are two main causes for this: a developing La Niña event and global climate change.

La Niña is part of a climate pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño is a warming event in the ocean off the coast of South America along the equator. This causes wetter conditions in the Caribbean and Central and South America, and results in a weakening of the conditions for hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

During a La Niña event, colder water rises to the surface along the South American coast, resulting from stronger trade winds and ocean currents pushing warm water west. When this occurs, it slows the progression of winds from the Atlantic to the Pacific, giving hurricanes more time to form and strengthen as they move into the Caribbean.

A La Niña event has been forming since August and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has given a 90 percent probability that it will persist through January at a weak to moderate rating.

The La Niña event highlights the dangers of climate change. The WMO predicts an average decline in the surface temperature of the Pacific off the South American coast of one degree Celsius during this La Niña. This seemingly small drop in temperature is expected to cause drier and warmer conditions in parts of Central America and the Southern United States, while causing wetter and colder conditions in the Northern United States.

As average ocean temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, the effect on hurricanes will be significant.

Rising ocean temperatures are not directly related to the number of tropical storms that form, but they are related to their severity. According to Yale Climate Connections, a one degree Fahrenheit rise in ocean temperature can cause a 15-20 mph rise in wind speed as a hurricane develops.

According to NOAA, a two degree Celsius rise in ocean temperatures could result in a 10-15 percent increase in storm rainfall, an up to 10 percent increase in storm severity, and a larger number of storms reaching Category 4 and 5 levels.

This will have even more devastating effects as storms slow down, allowing them to build strength for longer. A 2018 study by James P. Kossin found that tropical storms have slowed by about 10 percent between 1949 and 2016. This means that storms spend more time in one place, dumping more rain and subjecting areas to prolonged exposure to high winds and storm surges.

It is unclear how exactly climate change will impact ENSO events, largely due to their natural variability, but recent research published by the National Center for Atmospheric Research concludes that “the impact of an El Niño/La Niña event of a given strength is enhanced by mean climate warming, with accompanying increases in the probability and severity of regional temperature extremes.”

With hurricanes increasing in severity, and the potential for more severe La Niña events (which can last for up to three years) the possibility of more frequent and violent storm events is greatly enhanced.

The progressing climate disaster facing humanity is the product of the ruling class’ opposition to any significant reduction in carbon emissions or substantial restriction on environmental degradation.

In the United States, both the Republican and Democratic parties have been active participants in protecting the profits of capitalists who pillage the planet for profit.

The Obama administration protected BP following the Deepwater Horizon spill of 2012, then proceeded with deregulating offshore drilling despite the clear dangers. It also pursued the Dakota Access Pipeline, deploying federal agents to suppress the protests of environmental groups and Native American protesters attempting to protect their water sources and sacred lands.

Fracking was expanded under the Obama administration, as well as access of fossil fuel companies to public lands. The Trump administration has garnered criticism for its similar but more aggressive policy. However, the groundwork was laid by Obama and Biden when they opened 5.7 million acres of federal land for exploitation.

Now, the Trump administration has dismantled already weak environmental regulations with little to no resistance from the Democrats. The Green New Deal, a non-binding and nationalist program, was ultimately rejected by the Democratic Party, including by most of its own sponsors.

The fight against climate change cannot be entrusted to either capitalist party. It is clear that they are opposed to any genuine attempt to fight climate change and its effects, as this would threaten the profits of their handlers.

The working class must take this fight into its own hands by fighting for socialism, transforming the global economy to serve social need and launch a global campaign to stop and reverse the effects of capitalist pollution.

Mass layoffs in the US as states face unprecedented budget crisis

Shannon Jones

A growing number of mass layoffs across the US point to greater economic hardship for millions as the deadly coronavirus pandemic resurges. Major corporations recently announcing cuts include Walt Disney (28,000), Raytheon (19,000) and Boeing (7,000).

Temporary furloughs related to lockdown measures are giving way to permanent job cuts as it becomes clear that there is no end in sight to the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic. Among the sectors hardest hit by mass layoffs are aviation, travel, entertainment and the oil industry. Meanwhile, state and local governments are facing unprecedented budget shortfalls greater than anything seen since the Great Depression and portend devastating cuts to jobs and social services.

A man wearing a mask walks by a New York department store, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020. The discount department store chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and is closing its 13 stores. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

While new unemployment claims fell to 751,000 last week, the lowest level since March, the number is still enormous, three times higher than the pre-pandemic average. Overall, the economy has lost 10.7 million jobs since the start of the recession. The number receiving unemployment benefits in the week ending October 10 was 22.7 million. Some 14 million workers out of that total were receiving benefits under Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation or Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. Both are set to expire at the end of the year.

The $600 supplemental unemployment payments have long ago expired and the additional $300 weekly benefit allocated by the Trump administration has also been exhausted.

Drastic declines in revenue due to the pandemic have created massive state budget shortfalls. According to Moody Analytics, state budget deficits from 2020 through 2022 could amount to about $434 billion. This would of necessity lead to huge state workforce reductions and the elimination of vital services if not made up through taxes or federal subsidies.

To put the number in perspective, it is more than the entire K-12 education budget for all states combined and more than twice the amount spent on roads and transportation infrastructure.

Nevada, Louisiana and Florida have the deepest shortfalls when measured against their 2019 budgets. The state of Connecticut is projecting a total revenue decline of $8.4 billion through the 2024 budget year, which is more than twice its cash reserves built up over previous years. Already many states have begun imposing layoffs as well as instituting pay cuts.

While the unemployed face eviction and social services are starved of funds, US billionaires are enjoying a massive windfall. The Institute for Policy Studies reported the wealth of 643 of America’s richest billionaires rose from $2.95 trillion to $3.8 trillion between March 18 and September 15, almost $1 trillion. This figure is more than twice the entire budget deficit facing the states.

The largest announced layoff this week was by Walt Disney Company, which plans to cut 28,000 jobs at its theme parks. Ten thousand of those cuts will hit the city of Anaheim, California. About 135,000 are employed at theme parks in California and most of those workers have been furloughed since the start of the pandemic due to restrictions on large gatherings.

Defense contractor and aerospace company Raytheon Technologies is cutting 19,000 jobs, including 15,000 staff and 4,000 contract positions. Most of the cuts will come at its Pratt & Whitney and Collins Aerospace divisions that have suffered due to the sharp decline in air travel. However, despite the downturn in aircraft orders Raytheon still made $264 million in profits for the third quarter of 2020, beating analysts’ expectations.

Aircraft maker Boeing is laying off another 7,000 workers on top of the 19,000 slashed earlier this year. The company said it intends to reduce overall staffing to 130,000 by the end of 2021, which would mean an additional 7,000 job cuts on top of normal attrition. The job cuts have come despite the fact that the aircraft and defense giant received $17 billion in federal bailout money.

The company said this week that it expects to get the OK from federal regulators to resume shipments of its 737 MAX airliner that was grounded due to a deadly design flaw tied to crashes that killed 346 passengers and crew.

Oil giant ExxonMobil is cutting 1,900 jobs, a move it says is due to the impact of the pandemic. Most of the cuts will come at the company’s Houston, Texas management offices and will be carried out through “voluntary and involuntary programs.” It cited efforts to improve efficiency and reduce costs as the driving force behind the reductions. Earlier in October the company announced 1,600 job cuts at its European affiliates. ExxonMobil says job cuts could total 15 percent of its 88,300 global workforce.

Petrochemical companies have been the beneficiaries of some $5 billion in handouts under the CARES Act, the money not tied to any specific requirements to preserve jobs. Marathon Oil, for instance, plans to cash in an extra $411 million in tax refunds under the CARES Act while it laid off 2,000 workers September 30.

San Francisco-based Wells Fargo bank and financial services firm has begun issuing layoff notices to employees. In a statement to the media, Steve Carlson, vice president of corporate communications, said, “the company has been transparent about a multi-year effort that will include workforce reductions in nearly all of the company’s business lines and locations.”

Wells Fargo employs 266,000 people. According to an anonymous source speaking to the website Pensions & Investments, the company plans an overall 20 to 25 percent workforce reduction or, 50,000 to 66,000 jobs worldwide. Many of the cuts would come through the closure of branches and a heavier reliance on online and telebanking.

According to one report, New York state alone, with a population of 19 million, has lost 1 million private sector jobs over the past year. The cuts have been concentrated in the New York City metropolitan area, with the counties of Nassau, Suffolk, Orange, Rockland and Westchester as well as New York City itself accounting for 60 percent of the total.

All told, New York state has seen more job cuts this year than during the last six years combined. The list of layoffs includes 2,220 separate filings, all but 54 occurring in the eight months of the pandemic. Layoffs peaked in April as the death toll from the pandemic exploded.

More recent layoffs include 585 workers at Remington Arms in Ilion, New York. The company was recently purchased by Roundhill Group after going into bankruptcy under its previous owner. The United Mine Workers said the company is refusing to pay severance and vacation time as required under the collective bargaining agreement. Remington is the oldest US gun manufacturer.

Both parties in Washington have sought to place the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on the working class while effecting a further mass transfer of wealth to the supper rich. While the ruling class has responded to the pandemic with criminal negligence and incompetence it has been extremely efficient in looking after the needs of the billionaires. The resources exist to fight the pandemic and provide for pressing social needs. This requires the working class to adopt a socialist strategy directed at expropriating the wealth of the billionaires and utilizing society’s resources on a rational and scientific basis.

Large bonuses awarded to executives of bailed-out US companies

Kevin Martinez

Since the start of the pandemic, large corporations, including Hertz Global, JCPenney and Neiman Marcus, have awarded their executives millions in payouts just before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, according to court documents and regulatory filings obtained by the Washington Post.

Altogether at least 18 companies, many of which were bailed out with taxpayer money under the CARES Act, paid out more than $135 million to executives while listing $79 billion in debts to landlords, suppliers and other creditors. Experts say the timing of the payouts was calculated to bypass a 2005 law forbidding such actions by companies that are under bankruptcy protection.

While these companies awarded their executives anywhere from $600,000, as in the case of retailer New York & Co., to Chesapeake Energy’s $25 million, they laid off tens of thousands of workers, who on average earned less than $29,000 a year.

One of the laid-off workers interviewed by the Post was Utobia Horbuckle, a grandmother who worked at the family restaurant chain Chuck E. Cheese’s corporate offices near Dallas. Her part-time job barely allowed her to afford a motel room. She was saving to move into a single-bedroom apartment with her daughter and three grandchildren.

Her hopes were dashed after being furloughed from her $12.50-an-hour job on March 17 and laid off six months later, along with dozens of her colleagues. Chuck E. Cheese’s parent company had filed for bankruptcy with $2 billion in debt.

Chief Executive David McKillips, who had been with the company for less than five months, was awarded $1.3 million, part of nearly $3 million in bonuses he shared with other top executives. The parent firm, CEC Entertainment, told the Post the bonuses were a way to retain employees “while providing them with financial stability.”

Hornbuckle was quoted as saying, “Of course it makes me mad. But that’s the way of the world now. Big corporations do what they want to, and the rest of us—the peons, the small people—fall off our feet.”

She and her daughter, who works at a day care center, pay $268 a month for their motel room and rely on food stamps to make ends meet. She continues to apply for jobs, her $600-a-week supplemental unemployment benefit having long since expired.

Many companies awarded their CEO bonuses only a few days before declaring bankruptcy. Extraction Oil & Gas paid out $6.7 million in retention bonuses a week before its June bankruptcy filing, while laying off more than 120 employees, about 40 percent of its total workforce.

JCPenney awarded its top four executives $7.5 million only five days before it declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The retail chain has not turned an annual profit in almost a decade and is saddled with more than $8 billion in debt. The company is now starting to close almost 150 stores and lay off thousands of workers.

Car rental company Hertz argued in bankruptcy court that its bonuses were meant as an “incentive” for executives to stay while the company reorganized. In its Chapter 11 filing in May, the company asked the court permission to pay out another $14.6 million in bonuses, on top of the $16.2 million already paid out before declaring bankruptcy.

The judge rejected Hertz’s request and called it “offensive,” but later approved a smaller payout of $8.2 million on the condition that the company met “certain financial goals.” Hertz has more than $24 billion in debt and has already laid off a third of its workforce, more than 11,000 employees.

European Central Bank set to expand bond-buying program

Nick Beams

The European Central Bank has given a clear indication, following the meeting of its governing council on Thursday, that it will pump more money into the financial system in response to an expected worsening in the state of the European economy in the current quarter.

The anticipated downturn is the outcome of rising COVID-19 infections and deaths, following the lifting of restrictions in the summer, as part of the drive by capitalist governments around the world to open up their economies,

In its analysis, presented by its president Christine Lagarde, the ECB said the resurgence of the virus presented renewed challenges to public health and the growth prospects for the euro, as well as the global economy.

Stocks (Credit: QuoteInspector.com)

“Incoming information signals that the euro area recovery is losing momentum more rapidly than expected, after a strong yet partial and uneven, rebound in economic activity over the summer months,” she said.

Of course, there was nothing in her remarks that assigned any blame to governments, whose “return to work” policies, without regard to public health, have produced the worsening situation on both the health and economic fronts, despite the clear warnings that this would be precisely the effect.

Lagarde laid the groundwork for further ECB intervention to support corporations and the financial system. Consumers were “cautious in the light of the pandemic and its ramifications for employment and earnings” and “weaker balance sheets and increased uncertainty about the economic outlook are weighing on business investment,” she said.

Significantly Lagarde noted that besides low energy prices, there were “muted price pressures in the context of weak demand and significant slack in labour and product markets.” The ECB’s injection of more money into the financial system has to be justified on the basis of lifting inflation to or near a target of 2 percent.

The ECB maintained its present settings on interest rates and monetary policy, but indicated there would be further easing when it next meets in December.

Lagarde said that despite the ECB having provided “crucial support” in the current environment, the economic risks in the current environment were “clearly tilted to the downside.”

It would carry out a “thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks” and “recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.”

During the question and answer session of her press conference, Lagarde emphasised it was “necessary to take action” and that staff had started work on “potential adjustments” to its policies.

When the pandemic struck, the ECB set up an emergency bond-buying fund of €1.35 trillion, almost half of which has already been spent. There is a widely-held expectation that the fund will be expanded by at least €500, and its operation will be extended from June 2021 until the end of next year.

Commenting on the bank’s statement to the Financial Times, Paul Diggle, senior economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said: “This is as close as the ECB can come to pre-committing to further easing in December.”

In a further indication of more easing, Lagarde said the ECB was “very attentive” to bank lending, after a majority of lenders in its quarterly survey had indicated they intended to cut back on lending to households and businesses.

Lagarde noted that, according to the survey, credit conditions had tightened, and, while banks indicated they had adequate funds available, “higher risk perceptions could weigh on their attitude towards loan creation.”

The markets received the ECB statement favourably with an increase in purchases of government bonds. This sent interest rates lower (the price of bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship) and prompted a rise in stock market indexes, which had been falling over the previous week.

The ECB reported that the euro area had contracted 11.8 percent in the second quarter, with a sharp decline in April. The third quarter recovery only made up half the losses incurred in the first six months of the year.

Its forecast for the fourth quarter is presently around 3 percent. But with the resurgence of the pandemic and the re-imposition of restrictions, this figure is in considerable doubt, with economists warning the region faces the prospect of a double-dip recession.

Further signs of that prospect emerged yesterday, as data showed the eurozone experienced the third consecutive month of deflation, with the price of consumer goods falling by 0.3 percent. Even more significantly, a five-month improvement in the labour market reversed, as jobless numbers rose by 75,000.

Largarde repeated earlier calls for governments to provide fiscal support and for the European Union’s €750 billion recovery fund—a mixture of loans and grants to EU members—to “become operational without delay.” The fund was agreed in principle earlier this year but has not been put into effect, because of conflicts among member states over its operational details.

With the ECB set to further expand its bond-buying program, the extent of the intervention already being carried out was highlighted by calculations made by Citigroup, reported in the Financial Times this week.

Examining the draft plans of EU member states, it found that, even without an increase of €500 billion in December, the ECB “will buy up a greater quantity of debt than all the new bonds hitting the market.”

In other words, the situation has now developed where one arm of the capitalist state—national governments—issues debt, while another arm—the central bank—buys it up. This process is not confined to Europe. It is already well developed in Japan, where the Bank of Japan is virtually the market for government bonds, and in the US, where interventions by the Fed mean it has become the backstop for all areas of the financial system.

Within the confines of the capitalist profit system, these developments are a contradictory expression of the “socialisation” of the commanding financial heights of the economy.

They point to the fact that the so-called “free market” system, touted by the ideologues of capitalism as the only viable form of economic organisation, has completely broken down. The fight for a socialist program—taking the major corporations and the financial system into public ownership, under democratic control—is thus rooted in the objective development of the capitalist economy itself.