15 Jan 2021

Ford shuts down operations in Brazil, destroying tens of thousands of jobs

Brunna Machado & Tomas Castanheira


Ford announced on January 11 that it will end its production of cars in Brazil, shutting down its three plants in the cities of Camaçari, in the state Bahia; Taubaté, in the state of São Paulo; and Horizonte, in the state of Ceará. According to Ford, 5,000 workers will be laid off in Brazil. But tens of thousands more jobs are directly associated with its production chain, and a wave of dismissals is expected.

In a statement to its Brazilian customers, Ford declared: “As you know, the global automotive industry is undergoing a transformation process driven by new and emerging technologies in connected services, electrification and autonomous vehicles, with consumer demands and regulatory items reshaping the market.”

Brazilian Ford workers outside the plant in Taubate, Brazil, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, the day after Ford Motor Co. announced it will close three plants in Brazil and stop producing automobiles in the South American country where it has been operating since 1919. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

This restructuring of production is, in other words, a massive destruction of jobs and wage cuts globally being enacted by Ford and the entire auto industry. The latest wave of job and cost cuts began several years ago, escalating in 2018 and 2019 with a major downturn in the auto industry already then on the horizon.

In 2018, Ford announced a worldwide restructuring aimed at a multibillion-dollar reduction in costs. “The goal is to streamline the organization. It’s a cascading process. It will mean a reduction in workforce,” explained Mark Truby, the company’s vice president of global communications. The following year, the company fired 7,000 white-collar workers and laid off 12,000 workers as it closed five European plants.

In Brazil, Ford closed one of its main facilities, a truck factory in São Bernardo do Campo, in the São Paulo metropolitan area, in October 2019. On that occasion, 3,000 direct employees and 1,500 outsourced workers were laid off, not to mention the approximately 20,000 workers at the related auto parts plants.

The slashing of jobs being promoted now by Ford follows thousands of other layoffs in Brazil’s auto industry that occurred last year.

Last December, Mercedes-Benz announced that it would shut down its car production in Brazil, firing the 370 workers at its luxury vehicle plant. Renault-Nissan slashed more than 1,000 jobs in 2020, and Volkswagen announced that it would cut one third of its workforce, having opened on Monday a voluntary layoff program for this purpose.

Ford’s announcement of the closure of its plants was answered by workers with protests. On Tuesday, contract and outsourced workers from the Ford Northeast Industrial Complex in Camaçari demonstrated at the factory gates demanding to keep their jobs. A new protest was held the next day in front of the Legislative Assembly of Bahia (Alba), where representatives of the Camaçari Metalworkers Union met with Alba President Nelson Leal.

In Taubaté, where Ford produces engines and transmissions, a demonstration was held on Tuesday. Workers voted to set a vigil to block both people and materials from entering and exiting the factory for an indefinite period.

The unions are, in turn, already preparing a betrayal of the workers’ resistance to job cuts and the closure of plants.

The Camaçari Metalworkers Union, linked to the CTB union federation and the Maoist Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), already takes Ford’s closures for granted. According to the president of the union and PCdoB activist, Júlio Bonfim: “[The] way out so that thousands of workers don’t lose their jobs ... [is] the construction of an auto parts industrial park ... or either the arrival of another automaker [that] can guarantee jobs, investments and, consequently, the intense flow in the economy of the Metropolitan Region [of Salvador].”

This corporatist vision is the same advocated by the governor of Bahia, Rui Costa of the Workers Party (PT), whom Bonfim is joining in a “working group,” which, according to the union itself, “is looking for companies interested in investing in the industrial park where Ford Camaçari’s headquarters used to be, considered the largest automotive plant in South America.”

The Metalworkers Union of Taubaté and Region (Sindmetau), linked to the CUT union federation and the PT, is working to divert the Ford workers’ struggle through empty demands to the state. To fulfill these treacherous purposes, the main leaders of the CUT, including the CUT’s president, Sérgio Nobre, were mobilized to participate in a meeting held Wednesday on Sindmetau.

The main measure adopted at this meeting was “the holding of a public hearing in the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo,” advocated by PT state congressman Teonilio Barba, who declared that “the intention is to seek greater involvement of the state government.” The CUT’s president also declared: “All pressure is needed at this time. The country is deindustrializing because the government is encouraging deindustrialization.”

The unions and parties like the PT and PCdoB, as they work to divert workers’ opposition into safe channels within the bourgeois state, seek to establish an opposition to the administration of Brazil’s fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro’s that is based on the reactionary interests of Brazilian national capitalism.

Speaking to his supporters outside the government palace on Tuesday, Bolsonaro said, “I’m sorry for 5,000 jobs lost,” but “Ford has failed to tell the truth.” According to him, “They want subsidies.” “Do you want to keep giving them 20 billion [reais], as you have done in recent years?” he said in reference to the incentives paid by the Brazilian government to Ford since 1999 (equivalent to US$ 3.85 billion).

In response to Bolsonaro, the president of the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea), Luiz Carlos Moraes, declared that these subsidies would have functioned as “a way to correct the distortions of the Brazilian tax system,” according to O Globo. “We have been pointing for years to measures that need to be taken to improve competitiveness in Brazil,” said Moraes. This consists mainly of a pro-capitalist tax reform.

Anfavea’s arguments are not in any way different from those of unions and bourgeois nationalist parties like the PT and PCdoB. The CUT and other union federations for years have advanced as their fundamental program the creation of tax incentives for companies, especially in the auto industry. They criticize the governments that succeeded the PT in power for not having an “auto program” to stimulate competitiveness for production in Brazil.

Defending the same perspective as Anfavea, of reducing taxes to the capitalists, the PT’s Governor Rui Costa declared in a note on Ford’s closure: “Unfortunately, there are hundreds of industries that are closing, week after week, since we have a country that does not take care of its economy, does not guarantee institutional security to its investors and does not make the necessary reforms—including the tax [reform] that we need so badly.”

While fighting for the competitiveness of Brazilian capitalism, the unions are employing against Ford workers today the same methods they used to suppress resistance to the closing of the São Bernardo do Campo plant in 2019.

On that occasion, the ABC Metalworkers Union, also linked to the CUT, did everything to wear out a 42-day strike, isolating the workers locally and preventing independent actions. It ended up signing an agreement that accepted the closing of the plant. The union then acted in practice as the representative of a business group interested in buying the plant, negotiating bank loans for the group and offering low wages to attract its investments. Despite this, the negotiations failed.

As COVID cases surge: Sharp rise in new US unemployment claims

Shannon Jones


In the first full week of 2021 new claims for unemployment benefits increased sharply amid the rising toll of the pandemic, with adjusted first-time unemployment claims reached 965,000 for the week ending January 9.

That is the highest weekly number since last August and it was the largest week over week gain in new filings since March. The raw number of new claims surged 231,335 to reach 1.151 million last week. Economists tend to place more confidence in the unadjusted numbers, since the disruptions caused by the pandemic has made the adjusted figure, based on seasonal fluctuations, less reliable.

City workers and volunteers gather fruit to load into cars at a food distribution site, Wednesday, Jan 13, 2021, in Miami Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

New weekly claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program also rose last week, increasing by 100,000 to 284,470. The PUA provides benefits to the self-employed and “gig workers” who are not typically covered by regular unemployment benefits. This follows reports that the US lost 140,000 jobs in December, the first such monthly decline since March.

In addition, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to 5.3 million from 5.1 million, indicating a rise in the long-term jobless. It was the first time that the number had risen since November, having declined through the summer and into fall.

The Economic Policy Institute said the actual situation is even worse than indicated by official figures, estimating that 26.8 million workers have lost their jobs or seen their hours cut due to the pandemic.

These numbers continue to be historically without precedent and point to immense economic instability and the increasingly dire conditions facing wide sectors of the population. This week the US Federal Reserve reported that an estimated 20 percent of workers in the bottom one-quarter of income earners are currently without work. Workers in this category tend to be in the leisure and hospitality industry, such as restaurants and bars, that have been hard hit by the pandemic.

In typically understated language, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke of the “uneven” nature of the so-called recovery. “The damage from COVID-19 is concentrated among already challenged groups,” she said. Obliquely noting that stimulus measures have served mainly to enrich billionaires, she added, “The K-shaped recovery remains highly uneven, with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship.”

An economic analyst quoted by the Wall Street Journal remarked, “What we’re seeing in unemployment claims is a reminder that we’re likely to lose more jobs before we get to the end of this crisis.” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a large accounting and advisory firm, added, “the rising unemployment class combined with the job losses in December pointed to a further deterioration in the economic picture.”

Another analyst cited by the New York Times said, “We’re in a deep economic hole, and we’re digging in the wrong direction.” The economist, Daniel Zhao, with the career site Glassdoor, noted, “The report obviously shows that the rise in claims is worse than expected, and there is reason to think that things are going to get worse before they are going to get better.”

Consumer spending, another measure of economic well-being, declined in November, the first decrease in seven months. Household income fell as well.

In a further attack on the poorest sections of the working class, the Federal Reserve has said it may allow inflation to rise above the current rate of 2 percent annually, presenting it as the only alternative to a further rise in joblessness. In fact, the inflation rate on basic necessities such as food is already much higher. The official Consumer Price Index showed an overall 3.9 percent increase in food prices in 2020. Meat, poultry and fish prices were up 4.6 percent and dairy 4.4 percent. According to a report in Bloomberg, global food prices reached a six-year high in December and are likely to keep increasing.

It has not escaped the notice of workers that throughout the pandemic the fortunes of the world’s super-wealthy have soared even as devastation is visited on the mass of the world’s population. Even the attack last week on Congress by a mob of fascists or the surge in COVID-19 deaths to over 4,000 a day could not halt the upward trend in the financial markets. The worse-than-expected unemployment figures had the same effect. The market welcomed the rise in economic hardship, calculating it makes further economic stimulus measures more likely.

The response of the US government to the economic meltdown has been to shovel more money into the coffers of big business through the purchase of corporate assets, holding interest rates near zero and providing other forms of welfare for the super-rich. This policy will be continued and indeed expanded under a Biden administration.

While the Democrats and Republicans squabbled for months over a paltry rise in unemployment benefits, they voted unanimously for a massive bailout for the rich. Rarely has the urgent need for a socialist reorganization of society been posed so starkly. The continuation of the economic and political domination of the class of billionaires promises only further and greater catastrophes both social and economic.

Meanwhile, many workers have still not received the paltry $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits enacted by Congress with much fanfare in December after lengthy delays. The program will end March 14. About half of US states have not yet issued the payments. The state of Ohio, for example, says it doesn’t expect that most claimants will receive payments until the end of the month. Some 293,000 Georgia residents who exhausted PUA benefits will not get their extensions processed until near the end of January.

According to the Labor Department at least 18.4 million were on unemployment benefits on all programs combined, in late December. Only a little more than half of the 22 million jobs lost in March have been regained in the nine-month interval.

Millions are behind on their rent and could face eviction in coming months. The pandemic assistance passed by Congress in December only extended the federal moratorium on evictions until January 31. In addition, the federal relief bill only offered a minuscule $1.3 billion in rent relief for renters facing eviction, a fraction of the arrears owed.

With the deadline approaching, housing advocates are raising alarms. The New York-based Care For the Homeless (CFH) warned that the end of the moratorium will not only lead to a rise in homelessness, but further the spread of COVID-19 as families are forced into unsafe accommodations.

CFH notes, “A nationwide study published by the Journal of Urban Health shows the correlation between housing stability and public health. They looked at data from 44 states between the months of April and September 2020 and found that lifting eviction moratoriums led to increased COVID-19 incidences and mortality rates in the United States.”

It cited statistics to show that states such as Kentucky and Pennsylvania that imposed longer eviction moratoriums experience lower COVID-19 mortality rates while states like Texas, which lifted the statewide ban early, had a much higher mortality rate.

FBI reveals “dozens” of neo-Nazis and white supremacists on Terror Watch List traveled to D.C. for January 6 coup

Jacob Crosse


On Thursday the Washington Post reported that “dozens” of people who are currently on the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Database were in Washington D.C. to participate in the January 6 coup. An unnamed source told the Post that many are suspected white supremacists who had previously been entered into the database following prior interactions with state agents or informants.

The revelation that the domestic intelligence agencies knew that neo-Nazis and fascists were going to be in D.C. further exposes the lying claims of figures such as Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, who stated the day after the coup that “no intelligence” suggested a threat to the Capitol. There is no doubt that hundreds of people within the sprawling military-intelligence apparatus were aware of who was going to be at the rally and what their intentions were.

US Capitol Police at The Supreme Court (Lorie Shaull/Wikimedia Commons)

Another unnamed official told the Post that some of the individuals suspected of having taken part in the coup were current and former police and military members as well as “senior business executives and middle-aged business owners.”

The leaking of the investigation to the Post points to the raging conflict within the state, substantial sections of which knowingly withheld intelligence information and additional security resources in order to facilitate President Donald Trump’s attempted putsch. So far the Justice Department and the FBI have announced charges against at least 70 individuals and have identified 170 people, a fraction of the thousands who descended on the Capitol in the hopes of overturning the election.

The crowd included members of the fascist Oath Keepers, III Percenters and Proud Boys. In a video showing an Arizona chapter of the group, members are seen without their easily identifiable black and yellow polos. Instead, in an apparent attempt to hide themselves the group donned blaze orange knit caps as they filmed themselves preparing to “take the f—ing Capitol.”

In addition to substantial support from high levels of the state, starting from the White House, research conducted by Chainanalysis revealed that over $500,000 in bitcoin digital currency was distributed to 22 fascist and far-right linked online accounts on December 8, 2020. These accounts included the Nazi website Daily Stormer, and anti-immigrant hate group VDARE, as well as America First neo-Nazi, Nick Fuentes.

According to Chainanalysis, the deposits seemed to have emanated from a now-deceased French blogger who lamented online on the “decline” of Western civilization due to the “rejection of our ancestors and our heritage,” phrases popular with fascist right.

It should be noted that one of the recipients of the digital currency, VDARE, also receives substantial funding from billionaire hedge fund manager Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebekah Mercer. The Mercer’s have, unsurprisingly, generously donated to the Republican Party, including $1.5 million to political action committees affiliated with Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward. Ward, along with Arizona representatives Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar have ardently supported Trump’s ongoing coup attempt, including by organizing “Stop the Steal” rallies in Arizona and in D.C.

Rebekah Mercer is a close associate of Steve Bannon, the founder of Breitbart News, in which she is a principal investor. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Bannon has spoken repeatedly to Trump, with the latter seeking Bannon’s advice on how to overturn his re-election defeat.

As Trump, sections of the police, military-intelligence complex and his billionaire conspirators continue to plot their next putsch attempt, further arrests point to the intimate involvement of current and former police and military members in the storming of the Capitol.

After being identified on video outside the Capitol last Wednesday, Philadelphia prosecutors asked for bail to be revoked for Navy veteran and founder of “Vets for Trump” Joshua Macias, age 42. Macias was arrested on November 5 for multiple felony and misdemeanor weapons offenses after the FBI was tipped off that he and an accomplice, Antonio LaMotta, were driving up to the city from their residence in Virginia in order to “straighten things out” as vote counting continued following the presidential election.

Following the election, Macias has made several joint appearances at “Stop the Steal” rallies with Virginia state senator and prospective 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Amanda Chase. An ardent supporter of the fascist QAnon conspiracy theory, Macias appeared on Facebook live-stream with Chase the day before the rally. Chase introduced Macias as an organizer of the rally, who proceeded to spread fascist conspiracy theories warning, “the enemy is here, it’s not just at the gate, it’s within, we see it everywhere.”

Two police officers from Rocky Mount, Virginia have also been arrested. Thomas Robertson and Jacob Fracker were both inside the Capitol and took a picture together. Robertson shared a statement with WFXR on Monday January 11th, claiming that he was a patriot, adding, “I was let in by Capitol Police, who gave me a bottle of water and told us to stay within the roped areas.” Robertson claimed to be a wounded veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Kevin and Hunter Seefried, father and son, were arrested Thursday in Delaware, after Kevin was identified as the man walking inside the Capitol with the Confederate battle flag. According to police who spoke with the New York Times, Hunter bragged to a co-worker that he and his father were inside the Capitol on January 6.

Recently retired Pennsylvania firefighter Robert Lee Sanford, 55 of Chester, Pennsylvania was charged on Thursday with impending officers, civil disorder, trespassing and violent conduct with a dangerous weapon on the restricted grounds of the Capitol for throwing a fire extinguisher at police as the mob of Trump supporters were descending on the Capitol.

Retired Air Force officer Lt. Colonel Larry Rendall Brock Jr., who was photographed in the Senate Chamber wearing body armor and carrying zip ties, was also arrested this past Sunday. During a Thursday court appearance, Assistant US Attorney Jay Weimer alleged that Brock Jr. intended “to take hostages. He means to kidnap, restrain, perhaps try, perhaps execute members of the US government.”

Another recent retiree arrested this week for his role in the attempted coup was 45-year-old Adam Newbold from Lisbon, Ohio. The Navy has confirmed that Newbold is a retired reserve SEAL special warfare operator. Newbold’s new profession is training civilians and police in “tactical shooting.” In a since-deleted Facebook live stream following after the events last Wednesday, Newbold boasted that he was “proud” of his actions that day, adding that he hoped it would overturn the election and that those inside the Capitol should, “think twice about what they’re doing.”

Newbold’s action mirrors the words spoken by incoming North Carolina Republican representative Madison Cawthorn, who was carrying a weapon with him inside the Capitol the day of the insurrection. Cawthorn, who previously claimed that visiting Adolf Hitler’s Eagles Nest retreat in the Bavarian mountains was on his “bucket list for a while,” spoke the morning of the coup attempt, remarking that, “this crowd has some fight in it...The Republicans hiding and not fighting, they are trying to silence your voice.”

Cawthorn also spoke at a Turning Point USA event in December in which he urged attendees to “lightly threaten” lawmakers if they failed to support Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud.

Another notable arrest was of Robert Keith Packer, the fascist who was wearing a sweatshirt with a skull and crossbones that read “Camp Auschwitz.”The bottom of Packer’s shirt read “Work brings freedom,” a rough translation of “Arbeit macht frei,” the German phrase that greeted the 1.1 million Jewish people who were killed at the concentration camp during World War II.

The US Army is still “investigating” the activity of 30-year-old Captain Emily Rainey. Rainey admitted to organizing and leading 100 members of the “Moore County Citizens for Freedom” to D.C. on the 6th, however, she claims she didn’t enter the Capitol. Rainey is assigned to the 4th Psychological Operations Group at Fort Bragg, according to a spokesman for the 1st Special Forces Command. Rainey gained a substantial online following after posting videos on social media in May showing herself ripping caution tape off of a playground set that had been closed due to COVID-19 health restrictions.

The pandemic and Trump’s coup attempt

Andre Damon


On Wednesday, 4,100 people died from COVID-19 in the United States, the fifth day that the death toll surpassed 4,000. The number of daily new cases has surged to more than 200,000 every single day so far this year.

In the first two weeks of 2021, more than 43,000 people in the US have died from COVID-19, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) projects that as many as 90,000 more people could die in the next three weeks.

Globally, the death toll has surpassed two million. However, the official statistics only offer a partial expression of the horrific reality, with one recent analysis showing that “excess deaths” around the world have been more than 30 percent higher than the official count of COVID-19 fatalities.

On top of this already disastrous level of mass death and infection, experts are now warning that new, more infectious variants of COVID-19 will lead to an even greater surge in deaths. An article in the medical journal Stat noted Thursday, “As horrific as the U.S. Covid-19 outbreak looks right now, it is almost certainly about to get worse.”

The report continued, “They’ve raced through South Africa, the United Kingdom, and, increasingly, elsewhere, and now, new, more infectious variants of the coronavirus have gained toeholds in the United States. If they take off here — which, with their transmission advantages, they will, unless Americans rapidly put a brake on their spread — it will detonate something of a bomb in the already deep, deep hole the country must dig out of to end the crisis.”

This massive health care catastrophe is taking place simultaneously with the unprecedented political crisis in the United States following the January 6 fascistic insurrection incited by Donald Trump and the ongoing threats of fascist violence throughout the country prior to and on Inauguration Day, January 20.

Amidst the endless coverage in the media on the events in Washington, however, there is no attempt to connect the two. It is as if the effort by Trump to overthrow the Constitution bears no relationship to the central element of the administration’s policy over the past year: the insistence that no measures be taken to stop the spread of the virus.

It is a political fact that the main programmatic demand of the fascistic organizations cultivated by Trump over the past year has been the removal of all restrictions on economic activity to save lives. This was the demand of the rallies organized in April and May, in the aftermath of the bailout of Wall Street in late March. It was this that motivated the fascistic conspiracy in Michigan to kidnap and assassinate the state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, exposed in October.

In his first public remarks after the election in November, Trump doubled down on his administration’s response to the pandemic while making a case to the ruling class that he should remain in power. As the death toll was rising, he insisted on November 16, “This administration will not be going to lockdown.” While “time will tell” who ends up in office on January 20, Trump repeated his earlier insistence that “the cure cannot be … worse than the problem itself.”

Emphasizing the central class interests motivating this homicidal policy, Trump pointed to the rise of the stock markets, noting that “it’s ready to break the all-time record.”

There is an essential connection between the policy of the ruling class in response to the pandemic and the breakdown of democracy in the United States. As the WSWS wrote in October:

The homicidal policy of the ruling class in response to the pandemic is at the center of the unprecedented political crisis in the United States. To implement this policy, the ruling elite is resorting to ever more violent and dictatorial forms of rule.

The reality of the pandemic also underlies the Democrats’ response to the coup. Since the events of January 6, the Democrats, led by President-elect Joe Biden, are doing everything they can to cover up the extent of the conspiracy. Biden has insisted on the need for a “strong” Republican Party and has appealed to his “Republican colleagues”—that is, Trump’s coconspirators—for “bipartisanship,” particularly in any legislative response to the pandemic.

As a party of Wall Street, the Democrats’ greatest fear is the emergence of a movement of the working class against Trump’s coup attempt that will develop into a conflict with the entire ruling class and the capitalist system. It is necessary to move on with the policy of the oligarchy, to “look forward, not backward.”

One bank CEO quoted by Politico (“Wall Street’s big wish: Please move on”) summed up the attitude of the ruling class. Speaking of the fascist coup, he said: “I understand all the emotions around it and how strongly people feel about it. And I don’t discount any of it. But I think Joe Biden’s folks would agree with me on this, we have to get serious about moving forward right now.”

“Moving forward” means continuing the policy of “herd immunity.” Far from responding to the disastrous surge in COVID-19 deaths to press for measures to save lives, the entire US political establishment is demanding a further reopening of the economy, aimed at protecting the profits of major corporations at the expense of human lives.

Democratic Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said Thursday she wants the city’s bars and restaurants to reopen for indoor service “as soon as possible.” On Wednesday, Whitmer herself announced the resumption of group fitness classes, reaffirming that the state is planning to reopen indoor dining in two weeks.

The most explicit argument for reopening businesses was provided by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, another Democrat, who declared in his State of the State address, “We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy.”

Cuomo presides over a state containing New York City, the most unequal place in the world, home to 113 billionaires.

Almost without exception, US billionaires are now far, far wealthier than they were a year ago. Topping the list is Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, who this week became the wealthiest man in the world, at $201 billion. In the past year alone, Musk has made a shocking $170 billion, even as close to 400,000 Americans died from the pandemic, and 10 million jobs have been destroyed.

The claim that society cannot afford the cost of saving human lives, yet has $170 billion to dole out to a single man in one year, is absurd.

Every aspect of the response to COVID-19 has been based on ensuring the availability of cheap labor in the midst of a raging pandemic, allowing the uninterrupted extraction of profits from the labor of the working class. This week, Brian Deese, Biden’s incoming director of the National Economic Council told a Reuters conference, “We need to get the schools open so that parents … can get back to work.”

In other words, the lives of teachers and students are to be sacrificed to maximize what the New York Times, commenting on the remarks, called “labor force participation.”

In the mist of mass death and a general breakdown of democracy in the United States, it is noteworthy that the US markets surged throughout the entire week. In an article, “Why the Stock Market Doesn’t Care About the Capitol Riot” the Washington Post cited one Wall Street trader as saying, “The market is agnostic about politics… We like to think democracy is better. But at the end of the day, investors don’t seem to care so much about that.”

14 Jan 2021

Agroecology and Post-COVID Plunder

Colin Todhunter


Contingent on World Bank aid to be given to poorer countries in the wake of coronavirus lockdowns, agrifood conglomerates will aim to further expand their influence. These firms have been integral to the consolidation of a global food regime that has emerged in recent decades based on chemical- and proprietary-input-dependent agriculture which incurs massive externalised social, environmental and health costs.

Reliance on commodity monocropping for global markets, long supply chains and dependency on external inputs for cultivation make the food system vulnerable to shocks, whether resulting from public health scares, oil price spikes (the global food system is fossil-fuel dependent) or conflict and war. An increasing number of countries are recognising the need to respond by becoming more food self-sufficient, preferably by securing control over their own food and reducing supply chain lengths.

The various coronavirus lockdowns have disrupted many transport and production activities, exposing the weaknesses of the food system. If the current situation tells us anything, it is that structural solutions are needed to transform food production, not further strengthen the status quo.

Agroecology

In 2014, UN special rapporteur Olivier De Schutter’s report concluded that by applying agroecological principles to democratically controlled agricultural systems we can help to put an end to food crises and poverty challenges. He argued that agroecological approaches could tackle food needs in critical regions and could double food production in 10 years.

The 2009 IAASTD peer-reviewed report, produced by 400 scientists and supported by 60 countries, recommended agroecology to maintain and increase the productivity of global agriculture. And the recent UN FAO High Level Panel of Experts concluded that agroecology provides greatly improved food security and nutritional, gender, environmental and yield benefits compared to industrial agriculture.

Agroecology is based on traditional knowledge and modern agricultural research, utilising elements of contemporary ecology, soil biology and the biological control of pests. This system employs sound ecological management by using on-farm solutions to manage pests and disease without the use of agrochemicals and corporate seeds. It outperforms the prevailing industrial food system in terms of diversity of food output, nutrition per acre, soil health, water table stability and climate resilience.

Academic Raj Patel outlines some of the basic practices of agroecology by saying that nitrogen-fixing beans are grown instead of using inorganic fertilizer, flowers are used to attract beneficial insects to manage pests and weeds are crowded out with more intensive planting. The result is a sophisticated polyculture: many crops are produced simultaneously, instead of just one.

Much has been written about agroecology, its successes and the challenges it faces, not least in the 2017 book Fertile Ground: Scaling agroecology from the ground up, published by Food First. Agroecology can offer concrete, practical solutions to many of the world’s problems. It challenges – and offers alternatives to – the prevailing moribund doctrinaire economics of a neoliberalism that drives a failing system of industrial agriculture.

By creating securely paid labour-intensive agricultural work in both richer and poorer countries, it can address the interrelated links between labour offshoring by rich countries and the removal of rural populations elsewhere who end up in sweat shops to carry out offshored jobs: the two-pronged process of neoliberal, globalised capitalism that has hollowed out the economies of the US and UK and which is displacing existing indigenous food production systems and undermining the rural infrastructure in places like India.

Agroecology is based on the principle of food sovereignty, which encompasses the right to healthy and culturally appropriate food and the right of people to define their own food and agriculture systems. ‘Culturally appropriate’ is a nod to the foods people have traditionally produced and eaten as well as the associated socially embedded practices which underpin community and a sense of communality. But it goes beyond that.

Modern food system

People have a deep microbiological connection to soils, food processing practices and fermentation processes which affect the gut microbiome – up to six pounds of bacteria, viruses and microbes akin to human soil. And as with actual soil, the microbiome can become degraded according to what we ingest (or fail to ingest). Many nerve endings from major organs are located in the gut and the microbiome effectively nourishes them. There is ongoing research taking place into how the microbiome is disrupted by the modern globalised food production/processing system and the chemical bombardment it is subjected to.

Capitalism colonises (and degrades) all aspects of life but is colonising the very essence of our being – even on a physiological level. With their agrochemicals and food additives, powerful companies are attacking this ‘soil’ and with it the human body. As soon as agri-food corporations undermined the capacity for eating locally grown, traditionally processed food, cultivated in healthy soils and began imposing long-line supply chains and food subjected to chemical-laden cultivation and processing activities, we not only lost our cultural connections to food production and the seasons, but we also lost our deep-rooted microbiological connection with our localities. Corporate chemicals and seeds and global food chains dominated by the likes of Monsanto (now Bayer), Nestle and Cargill took over.

Aside from affecting the functioning of major organs, neurotransmitters in the gut affect our moods and thinking. Alterations in the composition of the gut microbiome have been implicated in a wide range of neurological and psychiatric conditions, including autism, chronic pain, depression and Parkinson’s Disease. In addition, increasing levels of obesity are associated with low bacterial richness in the gut. Indeed, it has been noted that tribes not exposed to the modern food system have richer microbiomes.

To ensure genuine food security and good health, humanity must transition to a notion of food sovereignty based on optimal self-sufficiency, agroecological principles and local ownership and stewardship of common resources – land, water, soil, seeds, etc.

However, what we are seeing is a trend towards genetically engineered and biosynthetic lab-based food controlled by corporations. The billionaire class who are pushing this agenda think they can own nature and all humans and can control both. As part of an economic, cultural and social ‘great reset’, they seek to impose their cold dystopian vision that wants to eradicate thousands of years of culture, tradition and farming practices virtually overnight.

Consider that many of the ancient rituals and celebrations of our forebears were built around stories and myths that helped them come to terms with some of the most basic issues of existence, from death to rebirth and fertility. These culturally embedded beliefs and practices served to sanctify their practical relationship with nature and its role in sustaining human life.

As agriculture became key to human survival, the planting and harvesting of crops and other seasonal activities associated with food production were central to these customs. Freyfaxi marks the beginning of the harvest in Norse paganism, for example, while Lammas or Lughnasadh is the celebration of the first harvest/grain harvest in Paganism.

Humans celebrated nature and the life it gave birth to. Ancient beliefs and rituals were imbued with hope and renewal and people had a necessary and immediate relationship with the sun, seeds, animals, wind, fire, soil and rain and the changing seasons that nourished and brought life. In addition to our physiological connection, our cultural and social relationships with agrarian production and associated deities had a sound practical base.

We need look no further than India to appreciate the important relationship between culture, agriculture and ecology, not least the vital importance of the monsoon and seasonal planting and harvesting. Rural-based beliefs and rituals steeped in nature persist, even among urban Indians. These are bound to traditional knowledge systems where livelihoods, the seasons, food, cooking, processing, seed exchange, healthcare and the passing on of knowledge are all inter-related and form the essence of cultural diversity within India itself.

Although the industrial age resulted in a diminution of the connection between food and the natural environment as people moved to cities, traditional ‘food cultures’ – the practices, attitudes and beliefs surrounding the production, distribution and consumption of food – still thrive and highlight our ongoing connection to agriculture and nature.

If we go back to the 1950s, it is interesting to note Union Carbide’s corporate narrative based on a series of images that depicted the company as a ‘hand of god’ coming out of the sky to ‘solve’ some of the issues facing humanity. One of the most famous images is of the hand pouring the firm’s agrochemicals on Indian soils as if traditional farming practices were somehow ‘backward’.

Despite well-publicised claims to the contrary, this chemical-driven approach did not lead to higher food production according to the paper New Histories of the Green Revolution written by Prof Glenn Stone. However, it has had long-term devastating ecological, social and economic consequences as we saw in Vandana Shiva’s book ‘The Violence of the Green Revolution’ and Bhaskar Save’s now famous and highly insightful open letter to Indian officials.

In the book Food and Cultural Studies’ (Bob Ashley et al), we see how, some years ago, a Coca Cola TV ad campaign sold its product to an audience which associated modernity with a sugary drink and depicted ancient Aboriginal beliefs as harmful, ignorant and outdated. Coke and not rain became the giver of life to the parched. This type of ideology forms part of a wider strategy to discredit traditional cultures and portray them as being deficient and in need of assistance from ‘god-like’ corporations.

Post-COVID plunder

What we are seeing in 2020, is an acceleration of such processes. In terms of food and agriculture, traditional farming in places like India will be under increasing pressure from the big-tech giants and agribusiness to open up to lab-grown food, GMOs, genetically engineered soil microbes, data harvesting tools and drones and other ‘disruptive’ technologies.

This vision includes farmerless farms being manned by driverless machines, monitored by drones and doused with chemicals to produce commodity crops from patented GM seeds for industrial ‘biomatter’ to be processed and constituted into something resembling food. What will happen to the farmers?

Post-COVID, the World Bank talks about helping countries get back on track in return for structural reforms. Are tens of millions of smallholder farmers to be enticed from their land in return for individual debt relief and universal basic income? The displacement of these farmers and the subsequent destruction of rural communities and their cultures was something the Gates Foundation once called for and cynically termed “land mobility”.

Cut through the euphemisms and it is clear that Bill Gates – and the other incredibly rich individuals behind the great reset with their ‘white saviour’ mindset – is an old-fashioned colonialist who supports the time-honoured dispossessive strategies of imperialism, whether this involves mining, appropriating and commodifying farmer knowledge, accelerating the transfer of research and seeds to corporations or facilitating intellectual property piracy and seed monopolies created through IP laws and seed regulations.

In India – still an agrarian-based society – will the land of these already (prior to COVID) heavily indebted farmers then be handed over to the tech giants, the financial institutions and global agribusiness to churn out their high-tech industrial sludge?

With the link completely severed between food production, nature and culturally embedded beliefs that give meaning and expression to life, we will be left with the individual human who exists on lab-based food, who is reliant on income from the state and who is stripped of satisfying productive endeavour and genuine self-fulfilment.

Technocratic meddling has already destroyed or undermined cultural diversity, meaningful social connections and agrarian ecosystems that draw on centuries of traditional knowledge and are increasingly recognised as valid approaches to secure food security, as outlined for example in the 2017 article Food Security and Traditional Knowledge in India in the Journal of South Asian Studies.

Such a pity that prominent commentators like George Monbiot, who writes for the UK’s Guardian newspaper, seems fully on board with this ‘great reset’. In his 2020 article Lab-grown food will soon destroy farming – and save the planet, he sees farmerless farms and ‘fake’ food produced in giant industrial factories from microbes as a good thing.

But Vandana Shiva says:

“The notion that high-tech ‘farm free’ lab food will save the planet is simply a continuation of the same mechanistic mindset which has brought us to where we are today – the idea that we are separate from and outside of nature… it is the basis of industrial agriculture which has destroyed the planet, farmers livelihoods and our health.”

She adds:

“Turning ‘water into food’ is an echo from the times of the second world war, when it was claimed that fossil-fuel-based chemical fertilisers would produce ‘Bread from Air’. Instead we have dead zones in the ocean, greenhouse gases – including nitrous oxide which is 300 times more damaging to the environment than CO2 – and desertified soils and land. We are part of nature, not separate from and outside of nature. Food is what connects us to the earth, its diverse beings, including the forests around us — through the trillions of microorganisms that are in our gut microbiome and which keep our bodies healthy, both inside and out.”

As an environmentalist, Monbiot supports lab-based food because he only sees a distorted method of industrial farming; he is blind to agroecological methods which do not have the disastrous environmental consequences of chemical-dependent industrial agriculture. Monbiot’s ‘solution’ is to replace one model of corporate controlled farming with another, thereby robbing us of our connection to the land, to each other and making us wholly dependent on profiteering, unscrupulous interests that have no time for concepts like food democracy or food sovereignty.

Moreover, certain lab-engineered ‘food’ will require biomatter in the form of commodity crops. This in itself raises issues related to the colonisation of land in faraway countries and the implications for food security there. We may look no further to see the adverse health, social and environmental impacts of pesticide-dependent GMO seed monocropping in Argentina as it produces soy for the global market, not least for animal feed in Europe.

Instead of pandering to the needs of corporations, prominent commentators would do better by getting behind initiatives like the anti-imperialist Declaration of the International Forum for Agroecology, produced by Nyeleni in 2015. It argues for building grass-root local food systems that create new rural-urban links, based on genuine agroecological food production. It adds that agroecology requires local producers and communities to challenge and transform structures of power in society, not least by putting the control of seeds, biodiversity, land and territories, waters, knowledge, culture and the commons in the hands of those who feed the world.

It would mean that what ends up in our food and how it is grown is determined by the public good and not powerful private interests driven by patents, control and commercial gain and the compulsion to subjugate farmers, consumers and entire regions to their global supply chains and questionable products (whether unhealthy food or proprietary pesticides and seeds). For consumers, the public good includes more diverse diets leading to better nutrition and enhanced immunity when faced with any future pandemic.

Across the world, decentralised, regional and local community-owned food systems based on short(er) food supply chains that can cope with future shocks are now needed more than ever. But there are major obstacles given the power of agrifood concerns whose business models are based on industrial farming and global chains with all the devastating consequences this entails.

Following the devastation caused by coronavirus-related lockdowns, World Bank Group President David Malpass has stated that poorer countries will be ‘helped’ to get back on their feet – on the condition that further neoliberal reforms and the undermining of public services are implemented and become further embedded.

He says that countries will need to implement structural reforms to help shorten the time to recovery and create confidence that the recovery can be strong:

“For those countries that have excessive regulations, subsidies, licensing regimes, trade protection or litigiousness as obstacles, we will work with them to foster markets, choice and faster growth prospects during the recovery.”

For agriculture, this means the further opening of markets to benefit the richer nations. What journalists like George Monbiot fail to acknowledge is that emerging technology in agriculture (AI drones, gene-edited crops, synthetic food, etc) is first and foremost an instrument of corporate power. Indeed, agriculture has for a long time been central to US foreign policy to boost the bottom line of its agribusiness interests and their control over the global food chain.

In the words of economics professor Michael Hudson:

“It is by agriculture and control of the food supply that American diplomacy has been able to control most of the Third World. The World Bank’s geopolitical lending strategy has been to turn countries into food deficit areas by convincing them to grow cash crops – plantation export crops – not to feed themselves with their own food crops.”

It is naïve to suggest that in the brave new world of farmerless farms and lab-based food, things would be different. In the face of economic crisis and stagnation at home, exacerbated by COVID lockdowns and restrictions, whether through new technologies or older Green Revolution methods, Western agricapital will seek to further entrench its position across the globe.

Looming Large: The Middle East Braces for Fallout of US–China Divide

James M Dorsey


China would like the world to believe that the Middle East and North Africa region does not rank high on its totem pole despite its energy dependence, significant investment and strategic relationships with the region. In many ways, China is not being deceptive. With relations with the United States rapidly deteriorating, China’s primary focus is on what it views as its main battleground: the Asia–Pacific. China is nonetheless realising that remaining aloof in the Middle East may not be sustainable.

In assessing the importance of the Middle East and North Africa region to China, the glass seems both half full and half empty with regard to what it will take for China to secure its interests. In the final analysis, however, the glass is likely to prove to be half full. If so, that will have significant consequences for Chinese policy towards and engagement in the region.

Indeed, measured by Chinese policy outputs such as white papers or level of investment as a percentage of total Chinese overseas investment, the Middle East and North Africa region does not emerge as a priority on Beijing’s agenda even if virtually all of it is packaged as building blocks of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

It was only in 2016 that China published its first and only Middle East-related white paper, devoted to the Arab states rather than the region as a whole. Apart from rehashing China’s long-standing foreign policy principles, the paper highlighted opportunities for win-win cooperation in areas ranging from energy, trade and infrastructure, but also technology, nuclear development, and space.

Investment figures tell a similar story. Of the US$2 trillion in Chinese overseas investment between 2005 and 2019, a mere US$198 billion or under 5 per cent went to the Middle East and North Africa.

The region is unlikely to climb Beijing’s totem pole any time soon, given the dramatic decrease in Chinese foreign investment in the last four years to about 30 per cent of what it was in 2016 and expectations that Middle Eastern and North African economies will significantly contract as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and sharp downturn in energy markets.

Half Full Rather Than Half Empty

What turns the glass half full is the fact that the Middle East fulfils almost half of China’s energy needs. Moreover, some of China’s investments, particularly in ports and adjacent industrial parks in the Gulf, Egypt and the eastern Mediterranean, are strategically important. What was once primarily a Belt and Road “string of pearls” linking Indian Ocean ports has evolved into a network that stretches from Djibouti in east Africa through Oman’s port of Duqm and the United Arab Emirates’ Jebel Ali port into a near dominant position in the eastern Mediterranean and onwards into the Indo–Pacific.

China already exerts influence in the eastern Mediterranean region through its involvement in ports in Greece, Turkey, Israel and Egypt. It has expressed interest in the Lebanese port of Tripoli and may well seek access to the Russian-controlled ports of Tartus and Latakia if and when it gets involved in the reconstruction of war-ravaged Syria. This was one reason that the Trump administration warned the Israelis that China’s engagement in Haifa, where they have built their own pier, could jeopardise continued use of the port by the US Sixth Fleet.

Asserting the importance of the Middle East, Niu Xinchun, director of Middle East Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), wrote back in 2017: “The politics and security of the Middle East [are] inextricably related to China. This is the first time in history that China has possessed political, economic and security interests in the Middle East simultaneously.” CICIR is widely viewed as China’s most influential think tank.

More recently, however, Niu has taken what seems like an antipodal position, maintaining that the Middle East does not feature prominently in China’s strategic calculations. In a webinar in May 2020, he said: “For China, the Middle East is always on the very distant backburner of China’s strategic global strategies … Covid-19, combined with the oil price crisis, will dramatically change the Middle East. [This] will change China’s investment model in the Middle East.” Niu emphasised that China considers the Asia–Pacific rather than the Middle East as its primary battleground for differences with the United States.

This shift was part of a game of shadow boxing to subtly warn the Gulf, and particularly Saudi Arabia, to dial down tension with Iran to a point where it can be managed and does not spin out of control.

To ensure that its message is not lost on the region, China could well ensure that its future investments contribute to job creation, a key priority for Middle Eastern states struggling to come to grips with the economic crisis as a result of the pandemic and the sharp fall in oil demand and prices. Middle East political economy scholar Karen Young noted that Chinese investment has so far focused on a small number of locations and had not significantly generated jobs.

Subtle Messaging

Subtle Chinese messaging was also at the core of China’s public response to Iranian leaks that it was close to signing a 25-year partnership with the Islamic republic that would lead to a whopping US$400 billion investment to develop the country’s oil, gas and transportation sectors.

China limited itself to a non-committal on-the-record reaction and low-key semi-official commentary. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, a “wolf warrior” or exponent of China’s newly adopted more assertive and aggressive approach towards diplomacy, was exceptionally diplomatic in his comment. “China and Iran enjoy traditional friendship, and the two sides have been in communication on the development of bilateral relations. We stand ready to work with Iran to steadily advance practical cooperation”, Zhao said.

Writing in the Shanghai Observer, a secondary Communist party newspaper, Middle East scholar Fan Hongda was less guarded. Fan argued that the agreement, though nowhere close to implementation, highlighted “an important moment of development” at a time that US–Chinese tensions allowed Beijing to pay less heed to American policies. In saying so, Fan was echoing China’s warning that the United States was putting much at risk by retching up tensions between the world’s two largest economies and could push China to the point where it no longer regards the potential cost of countering US policy as too high.

Diplomacy with “Chinese Characteristics”

Nonetheless, China’s evasiveness on the Iran agreement constituted a recognition that the success of its Belt and Road initiative and its ability to avoid being sucked uncontrollably into the Middle East’s myriad conflicts depends on a security environment that reduces tension to manageable proportions and ensures that disputes do not spin out of control.

“Beijing has indeed become more concerned about the stability of Middle Eastern regimes. Its growing regional interests combined with its BRI ambitions underscore that Middle East stability, particularly in the Persian Gulf, is now a matter of strategic concern for China,” said Mordechai Chaziza, an expert on China–Middle East relations.

Reflecting what appears to be a shift in China’s approach to regional security, Chinese scholars Sun Degang and Wu Sike described the Middle East in a recently published article as a “key region in big power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in a new era”. Sun and Wu suggested that Chinese characteristics would involve “seeking common ground while reserving differences”, a formula that implies conflict management rather than conflict resolution. The scholars said Chinese engagement in Middle Eastern security would seek to build an inclusive and shared regional collective security mechanism based on fairness, justice, multilateralism, comprehensive governance and the containment of differences.

A Blunt Rebuke

But China’s conflict management diplomacy may not go down well with the Gulf Arabs, notably Saudi Arabia, judging by what for Saudi media was a blunt and rare recent critique of the People’s Republic. In a game of shadow-boxing in which intellectuals and journalists front for officials who prefer the luxury of plausible deniability, Saudi Arabia responded bluntly in a column authored by Baria Alamuddin, a Lebanese journalist who regularly writes columns for Saudi media.

Alamuddin warned that China was being lured to financially bankrupt Lebanon by Hizballah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi’a militia. She suggested in a column published by Arab News, the kingdom’s primary English-language newspaper, that Hizballah’s seduction of China was occurring against the backdrop of a potential massive 25-year cooperation agreement between the People’s Republic and Iran. “Chinese business and investment are welcome, but Beijing has a record of partnering with avaricious African and Asian elites willing to sell out their sovereignty. Chinese diplomacy is ruthless, mercantile and self-interested, with none of the West’s lip service to human rights, rule of law or cultural interchange”, Alamuddin charged. She quoted a Middle East expert from a conservative US think tank as warning that “vultures from Beijing are circling, eyeing tasty infrastructure assets like ports and airports as well as soft power influence through Lebanon’s universities.”

Abandoning Saudi official and media support for some of the worst manifestations of Chinese autocratic behaviour, including the brutal crackdown on Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang and the repression of democratic expression and dissident, Alamuddin did not mince words.

Alamuddin went on to assert that “witnessing how dissident voices have been mercilessly throttled in Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, Lebanese citizens are justifiably fearful that their freedoms and culture would be crushed under heavy-handed, authoritarian Chinese and Iranian dominance, amid the miserable, monolithic atmosphere Hizballah seeks to impose.”

A Hair in the Soup

Further complicating Chinese efforts to nudge the Middle East towards some degree of stabilisation are China’s technology and military sales with no constraints on their use or regard for the potential geopolitical fallout. The sales include drone and ballistic missile technology as well as the building blocks for a civilian nuclear programme for Saudi Arabia, which would significantly enhance the kingdom’s ability to develop nuclear weapons should it decide to do so at some point in future.

These sales have fueled fears, for different reasons, in Jerusalem and Tehran of a new regional arms race in the region. Israel’s concerns are heightened by the Trump administration’s efforts to limit Israeli dealings with China that involve sensitive technologies while remaining silent about Chinese military assistance to Saudi Arabia.

Washington’s indifference may be set to change, assuming that the recent rejection by the US Embassy in Abu Dhabi of an offer by the UAE to donate hundreds of Covid-19 test kits for screening of its staff was a shot across the Gulf’s bow. A US official said the tests were rejected because they were either Chinese-made or involved BGI Genomics, a Chinese company active in the Gulf, which raised concerns about patient privacy.

The American snub was designed to put a dent in China’s “Silk Road” health diplomacy centred on its experience with the pandemic and predominance in the manufacturing of personal protective and medical equipment as well as pharmaceutics.

A Major Battlefield

Digital and satellite technology in which Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei’s 5G cellular technology rollout is but one component seems set to be a major battlefield. US officials have warned that the inclusion of Huawei in Gulf networks could jeopardise sensitive communications, particularly given the multiple US bases in the region, including the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and the forward headquarters of the US military’s Central Command, or Centcom, in Qatar.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker said the United States had advised its Middle Eastern partners in the region to take “a careful look at investment, major contracts and infrastructure projects.” He warned that certain engagements with China could “come at the expense of the region’s prosperity, stability, fiscal viability and longstanding relationship with the United States.”

Schenker cautioned further that agreements with Huawei meant that “basically all the information and your data is going to Huawei, property of the Chinese Communist Party”. The same, he said, was true for Chinese health technology. “When you take a Covid kit from a Chinese genomics company, your DNA is property of the Chinese Communist Party, and all the implications that go with that.”

The rollout of China’s BeiDou Satellite Navigation System (BDS), which competes with the United States’ Global Positioning System (GPS), Russia’s GLONASS and Europe’s Galileo, sets the stage for battle, with countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey having signed up for what is known as China’s Digital Silk Road Initiative. So far, Pakistan is the only country known to have been granted access to BeiDou’s military applications, which provide more precise guidance for missiles, ships and aircraft.

Promoting “the development of the digital service sector, such as cross-border ecommerce, smart cities, telemedicine, and internet finance (and) … technological progress including computing, big data, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum computing,” the initiative will enable China to enhance its regional influence and leverage in economics as well as security. China’s state-owned international broadcaster, China Global Television Network (CGTN), implicitly anticipated US resistance to its Middle Eastern partners being roped into a Chinese digital world when it declared that “a navigation system is like a gold key of your home that should be kept only in your own hands, not others.”

The successful launch in July of a mission to Mars, the Arab world’s first interplanetary initiative, suggested that the UAE was seeking to balance its engagement with the United States and China in an effort not to get caught in the growing divergence between the two powers. The mission, dubbed Hope Probe, was coordinated with US rather than Chinese institutions, including the University of Colorado Boulder’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG). It launched from Japan’s Tanegashima Space Center.

You Can Run, But You Can’t Hide

A continuously deteriorating relationship between the United States and China is a worst-case scenario for Middle Eastern states. It would progressively reduce their ability to walk a fine line between the two major powers. That would be particularly true if US efforts to force its partners to limit their ties to the People’s Republic compel China into defiance by adopting a more geopolitically assertive posture in the region.

Ironically, the US desire to recalibrate its engagement with the Middle East and a realisation on the part of Saudi Arabia and Iran that their interests are best served by a reduction of tension rooted in an arrangement based on a non-aggression agreement could serve as a catalyst for a new Gulf security architecture. This could involve embedding the US defence umbrella, geared to protect Gulf states against Iran, into a multilateral structure that would include rather than exclude Iran and involve Russia, China and India.

A more multilateral security arrangement potentially could reduce pressure on the Gulf states to pick sides between the United States and China and would include China in ways that it can manage its greater engagement without being drawn into the region’s conflicts in ways that frustrated the United States for decades.

None of the parties are at a point where they are willing to publicly entertain the possibility of such a collective security architecture. Even if they were, negotiating a new arrangement is likely to be a tedious and tortuous process. Nonetheless, such a multilateral security architecture would ultimately serve all parties’ interests and may be the only way of reducing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and managing their differences, which would in turn help China secure its energy and economic interests in the region. This reality enhances the likelihood that the glass is half full in terms of China ultimately participating in such a multilateral security arrangement, rather than half empty, with China refraining from participation.