Health care calamity looms as COVID-19 cases surge across Canada

Frédéric Charlebois

Health experts and even government officials now admit that the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada is at its most dangerous stage to date, with the pandemic’s third wave threatening to be the most lethal yet.

A nurse holds a phone while a patient affected with COVID-19 speaks with his family from the intensive care unit. (Image Credit: AP/Daniel Cole)

As a direct result of the criminal policies of all levels of government, which have prioritized corporate profits over human lives, COVID-19 has already killed more than 23,400 Canadians and infected 1.08 million.

With more contagious and deadly variants of COVID-19 becoming prevalent in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and the Prairie provinces, the numbers of infections and hospitalizations are soaring.

Last Friday, for the first time since the pandemic’s earliest days, Canada’s per capita rate of daily new infections surpassed that of the United States, long the epicentre of the global pandemic. So virulent are the new variants, some experts are characterizing the country’s third wave of COVID-19 infections as a “new pandemic.”

In Ontario, where the second wave took more than three months to reach the 2,500 daily case threshold, that mark was reached in just 30 days during the ongoing third wave. The province has averaged more than 3,500 cases per day for the past week, with a record 4,456 cases on Sunday.

Currently, a record 605 COVID-19 patients are being treated in the province’s intensive care wards, an increase of over 40 percent in just two weeks. Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table predicts that by the end of this month that number could surpass 800. As the second wave reached its peak at the beginning of the year, Ontario authorities warned that if the number of intensive care patients rose above 350 it would be impossible for the province’s hospitals to continue to provide regular care to all patients.

The situation is not much better elsewhere in the country. In neighboring Quebec, the acceleration of infections is also notable. In the greater Quebec City area, the average number of daily cases has risen from 100 to 400 in just two weeks, with a peak of 630 new infections in a single day.

Across the country, there is an exponential increase in new infections, with multiple records being broken in the Western provinces. British Columbia reported 1,293 new infections on Wednesday, April 7, while neighboring Alberta reported 876 new variant cases last Saturday, also a record. Considering that Alberta’s test positivity rate was 9.9 percent last Friday, the severity of the situation in the province and the country as a whole is undoubtedly underreported.

The new variants have certainly contributed to the acceleration of the third wave. But it is the political establishment’s mercenary drive to keep schools and nonessential businesses open that has allowed the variants to run rampant.

When new infections started to fall in the second half of January due to the limited lockdowns hastily instituted at the end of 2020, all levels of government rushed to reopen businesses and schools creating the conditions for a resurgence of mass infection. Rather than pursuing measures aimed at ending the pandemic by bringing the number of new infections down to zero, the capitalist ruling elite has prioritized “keeping the economy open,” i.e., profits flowing. “Open schools” are central to this mercenary policy, because if kids are herded into classrooms, their parents can be forced to work, churning out corporate profits, amid the pandemic.

As a result, the new variants now account for 40 to 50 percent of new infections, rising to 70 percent in Ontario. The B.1.1.7 variant, first seen in the United Kingdom, accounts for 94 percent of the 25,000 cases of variants sequenced across the country. But two other variants, the B.1.351, first identified in South Africa, and especially the P1, first seen in Brazil, are also responsible for many outbreaks.

Canada is possibly unique in having community transmission of all three of the major COVID-19 variants, and this was no doubt a major reason that the US Centers for Disease Control last week issued it highest-level advisory against travel to Canada.

The variants are sending ever larger numbers of younger patients to the hospital. According to Quebec’s health institute (INESSS), while people 70 and over represented more than 70 percent of hospitalizations in January, they now represent just 30 percent. People in their 50s and 40s, and even some in their 20s, are now routinely having to be put on ventilators and intubated.

This massive influx of patients into hospitals and Intensive Care Units threatens to overwhelm the health care system. Triage, which describes a situation where doctors must determine who to care for and who to leave to die, is openly being discussed.

Because of the “extreme pressure” on the health care system, the Ontario Public Health Agency sent a memo to the vast majority of the province’s hospitals late last week ordering them to stop performing all but emergency and life-saving surgery starting this Monday.

The hard-right provincial government led by Doug Ford has boasted that it intends to add a further 1,000 critical care beds to deal with the surge in desperately ill COVID-19 patients. However, medical experts point out that due to the lack of trained personnel—a product of decades of cuts to health care and social services—such promises are all but meaningless.

“We can line up all of the beds in the world, but if you don’t have someone who is healthy, capable, able to help you and provide the care to you when you are there in that bed, the bed doesn’t matter,” Dr. Shelly Dev, an intensive care physician at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto, told CBC. Referring to medical personnel who have already endured over a year of delivering pandemic-related care, she added, “They are physically broken by how hard they’re working. The worry among all of us workers is that our ability to provide that kind of top-of-the-line care—that we’re so proud to provide in our health-care system—is waning.”

In Quebec, according to INESS, “dedicated hospital capacity, particularly in intensive care, could be reached within the next three weeks” outside of Montreal. In Alberta, health officials expect to see more than 1,000 hospitalizations by the end of April.

Despite the acceleration of the crisis, nothing is really being done to prevent another massive wave of deaths. Schools largely remain open and, apart from some localized shutdowns, industries and factories continue to operate as if nothing has happened. In Ontario, the Ford government was forced to make an about-face on Monday and announce a temporary shift of all schools to online learning. But there is no indication how long this will last, and no support is being given families now struggling to manage childcare and work responsibilities.

If vaccines demonstrate the potential of science to help stop the pandemic, their rollout could not be more chaotic. In what can only be described as a complete mess, vaccination in Canada has been marked by logistical problems, lack of doses and lack of access for many vulnerable groups. As if this was not enough, the ruling class is invoking the prospect that the population can be inoculated against COVID-19 as yet another argument to immediately get rid of virtually all remaining public health restrictions.

As of April 13, some four months after Canada’s inoculation drive began, only 20.79 percent of the population had received at least one vaccine dose, and just 2.2 percent was fully inoculated. While Premier Ford announced with great fanfare last week that 18 to 49-year-olds in COVID-19 hotspots were now eligible to be vaccinated, they are currently unable to register to do so. Yesterday, health authorities in the Toronto borough of Scarborough had to cancel 10,000 vaccination appointments due to a lack of vaccines.

Faced with the inaction of governments, several groups of doctors and scientists are speaking out. In Quebec, the Stop COVID Collective, which includes nearly thirty health experts, is calling for a lockdown before the crisis escalates further. “We are really behind schedule,” declared Dr. Marie-Michelle Bellon, a specialist in internal medicine assigned to the COVID-19 unit at Montreal’s Notre-Dame Hospital. “That’s why lockdown needs to be implemented now.”

A shutdown of all schools is among the critical measures that must be taken to stop the virus’ spread. Not only are schools responsible for a quarter of all infections. Studies have shown children have played a critical role in spreading Canada’s second and third waves, infecting their parents. And contrary to the claims of the ruling elite and the corporate media, children are themselves at serious risk from COVID-19, accounting for two percent of hospitalizations. Each wave of the pandemic has been accompanied by an increase in cases of post-infectious multisystem inflammatory syndrome, which sends many children to intensive care. At the Sainte-Justine Children’s Hospital in Montreal, a 16-year-old girl died last week of COVID-19.

As the deadly third wave of the pandemic unfolds, the ruling elite is united in opposing any measures to curb the pandemic that challenges the “right” of the corporations to continue raking in profits. Right-wing Quebec Premier François Legault and his so-called “progressive” New Democrat counterpart John Horgan of British Columbia are blaming youth and private gatherings. In fact, it is their inaction and insistence on keeping schools and businesses open to protect private profit that is fueling the current health and socio-economic crisis.

The federal Liberal government of Justin Trudeau is no less responsible for Canada’s ruinous handling of the pandemic. It took no action in the critical months at the beginning of 2020, waiting until March 10 to even ask the provinces about potential shortages of ventilators, PPE (personal protective equipment) and other critical supplies; and it has strongly promoted the ruinous back-to-work/back-to-school drive.

In last September’s Throne Speech, the Liberals sent a clear signal to big business that no new lockdowns comparable to those implemented under the pressure of working class protests in the spring of 2020 would be imposed. Instead, the Trudeau government declared that in the face of a resurgence of COVID-19 infections any restrictions should be “local” and “short-term.”

US Supreme Court again exempts religious gatherings from COVID-19 regulations

John Burton

The US Supreme Court has for the fourth time barred local authorities from requiring religious gatherings to abide by the same general COVID-19 mitigation measures that apply to everyone else, having reversed course after the rushed confirmation of Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett last October that solidified a new five-vote, extreme right-wing majority.

Supreme Court building, Washington, DC (Wikimedia Commons)

Indoor religious gatherings are among the most serious COVID-19 “superspreader” events, as crowds from different households greet each other and then sit close together for an extended period, often in poor ventilation, and sometimes singing or chanting.

Before the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg last September, the four moderate justices, joined by Chief Justice John Roberts, a conservative, twice declined to exempt indoor church services from broad regulations enacted to curtail the pandemic, which also limited theaters, sporting venues, nightclubs, concert halls and similar locations.

Starting in November, however, by votes of 5-4 or 6-3 (with Roberts sometimes joining the extreme right) the Supreme Court has issued four extraordinary late-night injunctions exempting religious gathering public health measures in New York and California, the most recent coming shortly before midnight last Friday.

California, which alone has recorded more total COVID-19 deaths than all but 12 nations, began enacting statewide regulations during mid-March 2020, after Governor Gavin Newsom declared a national emergency, ordering all but essential workers to stay home. For the most part, public health officials have regularly updated and revised statewide regulations, which delineate various tiers for different counties, as the pandemic has waxed and waned.

Among other measures, California has restricted gatherings inside private homes to members of three households, both to minimize the opportunity for infections to spread and to facilitate contact tracing when they do, although no meaningful contact tracing has taken place. This three-household rule is a guideline that depends on voluntary compliance because enforcement is largely impracticable.

The challenged home regulation does not single out religious activity in any manner. The three-household limitation applies equally to birthday and holiday gatherings, social and political events, and any other activity that might bring people together inside a private home. In short, secular and religious gatherings are treated exactly the same.

Rather than simply ignore the guideline by discretely inviting eight to 12 people, which would have gone unnoticed, the petitioners filed suit last October, seeking an injunction barring the enforcement of the three-household limit for their in-home Bible study sessions, on First Amendment grounds, as an infringement of free exercise of religion. The federal district court, in a thorough analysis, denied the injunction two months ago, as California was deep in the throes of the post-holidays third wave of COVID-19 cases, when hospital intensive care units—and morgues—were quickly filling beyond capacity.

Claiming that their Bible studies were being treated more harshly than businesses such as stores, restaurants, nail salons and tattoo parlors, although the same as comparable in-home activities, the petitioners asked for an injunction in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers the western United States. Two conservative judges, one appointed by George W. Bush and the other by Donald Trump, again denied an injunction, explaining that business premises open to the public are fundamentally different than private homes, and are significantly regulated by California in other ways, such as limitations on occupancy, distancing requirements, hand sanitizers and medical quality personal protection equipment. A third judge, also a Trump appointment, dissented, and would have issued the pro-religion injunction.

On April 2 the petitioners sought an injunction from the Supreme Court, procedurally a highly extraordinary request, theoretically reserved to address only the most critical threats of irreparable injury.

California’s opposition brief, filed last Thursday, April 8, pointed out that “the challenged policy will be significantly modified on April 15, one week from today,” because “in light of improvements in the rates of infection, hospitalization, and death, as well the growing number of vaccinated individuals, the State will be substantially relaxing its restrictions on multiple household gatherings. Under the new policy, plaintiffs will be able to hold the types of gatherings referenced in their emergency application.”

Under traditional notions of judicial restraint, that change in the regulation alone, set to take effect in less than a week, should have resolved the matter. The rule barring certain in-home gatherings had been in effect for more than six months, and a few more days would make no difference. Nevertheless, the next day, shortly before midnight April 9, the Supreme Court issued an unsigned ruling over the dissent of Chief Justice Roberts and the three moderates.

The right-wing majority acknowledged that “California officials changed the challenged policy,” but because “the previous restrictions remain in place until April 15th, and officials with a track record of ‘moving the goalposts’ retain authority to reinstate those heightened restrictions at any time,” the court nevertheless issued the injunction.

Justice Elena Kagan penned a brief dissent, joined by Justices Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor. “California limits religious gatherings in homes to three households. If the State also limits all secular gatherings in homes to three households, it has complied with the First Amendment. And the State does exactly that,” Kagan wrote.

The Supreme Court majority, “once more commands California to ignore its experts’ scientific findings, thus impairing the State’s effort to address a public health emergency,” she concluded.

In a related development, earlier last Friday President Joe Biden issued an executive order to establish a commission to study and report back on possible changes in the Supreme Court, including measures to expand the number of justices, which is set by Congress rather than the Constitution. Such an increase would allow him to nominate additional members of the high court and shift its political balance.

Comprised of 36 law professors, lawyers and retired judges, the co-chairs are Bob Bauer, an NYU law professor who served as White House counsel to President Barack Obama, and Cristina Rodríguez, a Yale Law School professor who served as a deputy assistant attorney general during the Obama administration. A report is due in 180 days.

Biden announces US military withdrawal from Afghanistan

Patrick Martin

US President Joe Biden announced Wednesday afternoon that the remaining American troops in Afghanistan would begin pulling out on May 1 and that all of them would be withdrawn from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021.

The choice of a final withdrawal date was intended to reinforce the longstanding lie by Washington that its invasion and occupation of Afghanistan were in response to the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on September 11, 2001. In reality, the attack on Afghanistan was in preparation well before that date, and the invasion was aimed at accomplishing long-term strategic aims for American imperialism.

Coalition forces pull security for the safety of the pilots and team of an MI-17 helicopter as it leaves the Gulistan district in Farah province, Afghanistan, April 12, 2009 (Source: Wikimedia Commons/Joseph A. Wilson)

The televised statement from the White House and the accompanying media buildup, however, could not dispel the atmosphere of futility and failure that surrounds the withdrawal—if, indeed, the final pullout takes place on schedule.

Biden reportedly rejected pleas by Pentagon and CIA officials that any pullout should be “conditions-based,” i.e., conditional on some sort of agreement between the Taliban insurgents and the Kabul puppet regime established by the United States. By one account, citing an unnamed “senior administration official,” Biden viewed such an approach as “a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever.”

While warning the Taliban not to attack American forces or their NATO allies during the withdrawal period, Biden indicated that there were no circumstances in which he would reverse his decision. He only left open the threat that US military force could be employed against any possible terrorist threat to the United States, a warning that applies to virtually every country in the world.

While there are officially 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan and another 6,500 from other NATO countries, press reports indicate that the actual number of American soldiers is 3,500. This does not count thousands of other American personnel, from CIA agents to mercenaries to Special Forces paratroopers, who are likely to continue operations in that country as long as Washington feels it necessary to prop up the Kabul regime, which has no other base of support.

Afghanistan will remain a free-fire zone for US drone missiles, like nearly all the vast swath of territory from Central Asia through the Middle East and across northern Africa.

There were mixed reactions in Congress to the Biden decision, and the split was not along party lines. Some Democrats applauded the action, mostly those from the Sanders-Warren wing of the party, while those closest to the military gave tepid backing, including Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said she was “very disappointed” by the decision and cited the likelihood that government in Kabul would collapse.

Republicans were publicly divided, with the most strident pro-Trump senators, including Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, hailing the pullout, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell denounced it as a capitulation to terrorism. “It is a retreat in the face of an enemy that has not yet been vanquished, an abdication of American leadership,” he said Tuesday on the Senate floor.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken informed Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani Tuesday of Biden’s decision and also relayed the proposed action to his NATO counterparts before a meeting in Brussels, which is expected to ratify similar actions by Germany and other countries with forces on the ground in Afghanistan.

Ghani, for whom the announcement is something of a political death sentence, said he would have no comment on the US withdrawal until after Biden’s official declaration.

Speaking off the record to the press, top administration officials underscored the necessity for the United States to turn away from lesser conflicts, like that in Afghanistan, to more important strategic opponents like Russia and China, as well as North Korea and Iran. “Afghanistan just does not rise to the level of those other threats at this point,” one official told the Washington Post .

In his remarks Wednesday, Biden referred to the 2,300 American soldiers killed in Afghanistan, the tens of thousands of wounded and $2 trillion expended on 20 years of war. He made no reference whatsoever to the catastrophic impact on the Afghan people and on Afghanistan as a society, one of many destroyed by American imperialism over the past two decades, along with Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and large parts of northern Africa.

Similarly, there has been virtually no mention in the US media of the damage and the colossal loss of life inflicted by American forces. Instead, there were crocodile tears about the savagery of the Taliban and the likelihood of severe setbacks for women’s rights should the fundamentalist religious group come to power again in Kabul.

One of the most cynical efforts to portray Biden’s decision as a humanitarian and even progressive action came from David Sanger, the designated recipient of leaks from the CIA and Pentagon at the New York Times. He wrote that Biden was pulling out troops at least in part because “he wants the United States focused on a transformational economic and social agenda at home,” adding that in Biden’s view “the priorities are fighting poverty and racial inequities and increasing investment in broadband, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and 5G communications—not using the military to prop up the government of President Ashraf Ghani.” He concluded, “In the end, the argument that won the day is that the future of Kenosha is more important than defending Kabul.”

The resources squandered by American imperialism in Afghanistan will not go to rebuild deindustrialized cities in the Midwest, however. They will be redeployed against the major targets of Washington, in Russia and China.

The real strategic thinking in Washington was expressed in a typically blunt and bloodthirsty column by Anthony Cordesman, one of the top analysts for American imperialism, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), written just before Biden’s formal announcement. He noted that the Taliban was gaining strength, and the regime in Kabul is “hopelessly divided, corrupt and ineffective.”

Cordesman backed not only the withdrawal of military forces but the cutoff of all US military and civilian aid. “It will be a tragedy, but the time has come for the strategic equivalent of a mercy killing,” he added.

While Afghanistan would likely be viewed as an American failure, he argued, “the first benefit is to shift the burden of Afghanistan and the focus of any extremist activity outside its borders to China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran.” In other words, the wreckage created by the American intervention in Afghanistan would now become a problem for its neighbors, all of which are targets of US imperialism.

Cyclone Seroja wreaks death and destruction in Indonesia, East Timor and Western Australia

Patrick O’Connor

Severe Tropical Cyclone Seroja triggered deadly flash flooding and landslides in parts of southeast Indonesia and in East Timor, including its capital Dili.

The worst of the damage occurred April 4–6. On April 12, after having moved south, the cyclone hit the coast of Western Australia. One person in Coral Bay died in the cyclone, a maintenance worker who was electrocuted, while about 70 percent of all homes and structures were damaged in the town of Kalbarri, with 40 percent entirely destroyed.

While tropical storms are commonplace in the region, Cyclone Seroja was the most powerful cyclone to hit in decades. An estimated 180 people were killed in Indonesia, 42 in East Timor, while more than 20,000 homes were submerged across both countries, rendering tens of thousands of people homeless.

The disaster still threatens to trigger a wave of dangerous diseases in multiple impoverished communities, including cholera, dysentery, typhoid—and COVID-19. Both Indonesia and East Timor have experienced recent increases in coronavirus infection rates.

Cyclone Seroja over Indonesia and East Timor (Credit: Japan Meterological Agency)

While the cyclone was an unpreventable weather event, its devastating impact is a product of the capitalist system. Indonesia is a country with considerable natural wealth, yet the majority of its 270 million people live in poverty. The country’s top four billionaires control as much wealth as the bottom 40 percent of the population. The national government serves the interests of the ultra-wealthy and the transnational corporations, and has failed to invest public funds in basic infrastructure. This includes cyclone alert systems and emergency response systems.

According to a Reuters report, cyclone alerts rely on the Indonesia’s weather agency feeding warnings to local disaster agencies. In the case of Cyclone Seroja, this system proved grossly inadequate.

On the islands of Alor, Lembata, and Adonara, some local residents received no warning at all ahead of the destructive cyclone. Others heard mosques and churches issuing alerts, but only shortly before the destructive weather pattern hit. The cyclone coincided with Easter Sunday, with some of the affected islands having majority Christian populations.

Numerous tragic stories have emerged. AFP reported from Lembata island, where some villages were swept down mountainsides. Resident Basir Langoday reported hearing screams from a home that had been buried in rubble. “There were four of them inside,” he explained. “Three survived but the other one didn’t make it.” Langoday and others were unable to prevent one of the trapped men from being crushed to death.

A destroyed road in Dili, East Timor (Supplied)

Emergency response workers continue to deal with mass homelessness and the threat posed to survivors by hunger and exposure.

Coronavirus fears are exacerbating the challenges. Indonesia has had a total of more than 1.5 million infections. Daily infections are more than 5,000, though this is down from a peak of 12,000 in late January.

The situation is even more concerning in East Timor, because of a recent wave of COVID-19 infections. After spending most of 2020 coronavirus-free, since the beginning of March there has been a steady rise in daily infections, with the seven-day average now over 40. Nearly half of the country’s total infections during the pandemic (1,074) have been registered in the last two weeks.

With only very limited testing taking place, the real rate of infection is likely substantially higher. Initial vaccinations have only just begun, with the first delivery arriving in the country on April 5.

Timor’s worst hit area by Cyclone Seroja was its capital, Dili. Flash floods swept debris through populated areas, displacing a reported 13,000 people. Many of these have since taken shelter in makeshift emergency refuge centres. There is no proper social distancing or use of personal protective equipment in these centres.

Madalena da Costa Hanjan Soares, head of Timor’s Red Cross, said, “It’s heartbreaking to see people making a choice between having a safe shelter, adequate food and water, or trying to avoid the spread of this deadly COVID-19 virus. This is a race against time. The longer people have to stay in these temporary shelters, the higher the risk of a mass outbreak.”

Casualties of the cyclone included 42 deceased Dili residents. One survivor, Markus dos Santos, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that his wife and three children had been buried by an avalanche of mud and water that hit their house. He managed to pull two of his daughters to safety as they were being sucked under the mud. His wife and two-year-old son, however, did not survive.

The cyclone damage comes just over a year after monsoonal rains in Dili triggered damaging flooding in many parts of the city. No proper flooding protections were put in place by the government after this experience, facilitating the damage now caused by Cyclone Seroja.

One Dili resident, whose family home was then submerged by flood waters, told the World Socialist Web Site: “Before the major flooding hit, there had already been three days of constant rain every night. As a result, we started worrying about the possibility of another major flood, but there was not any signs from the government to alert anyone, especially those of us who live in high risk areas. We were left on our own to fence ourselves off from the pending disaster.

“Fresh from last year’s and this year’s flooding, Dili is no longer a safe place to live. Another disaster will strike again, and whichever political party is in government, I don’t think they will redesign the capital for the safety of its own people.”

Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak has estimated that the cost of recovery from the cyclone will total more than $US100 million. Yet the government has so far allocated less than $US1.5 million for the recovery mission, including for food supplies and transport.

The Australian government has announced a relief package of just $7 million. This pittance again underscores the fraud of Canberra’s “humanitarian” concerns for the Timorese people, after it used this pretext in 1999 to launch a military intervention into the territory in order to protect its economic and geostrategic interests.

German government introduces new Infection Protection Act, continuing its herd immunity policy

Gregor Link

On Tuesday, Germany’s federal cabinet agreed on a new Infection Protection Act. The legislation, which is intended to give the government more powers in the coronavirus pandemic, is described by politicians and the media as an “emergency brake” against the third wave of the pandemic. The fight against the pandemic must become “more stringent and consistent,” explained Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) in a press statement. “The previous federal-state consultations are no longer sufficient for this.”

The new law does not mean a departure from the murderous profits-before-lives policy that has already led to almost 80,000 deaths in Germany alone. What is being centralised is not a consistent lockdown policy but allowing the virus to run through the population. While the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care is rising exponentially and threatens to exceed 6,000 this month, the main drivers of the pandemic—businesses, schools and day-care centres—are to remain open to ensure the flow of profits.

The draft law, which is to be passed “in an emergency procedure” this week if possible, does not mention businesses at all and even if the infection continues to escalate provides for comprehensive “emergency care” to continue the operation of day-care centres. Attendance at schools, however, is to be stopped only if the weekly incidence level exceeds 200 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants for three consecutive days. The previous limit of 100, which was largely ignored by the state governments and has now been reached across the board, is thus being doubled without further ado.

The exponential spread of the virus among children, which, due to the often-asymptomatic course of the disease, goes predominantly undetected and for the most part is not recorded by the health authorities, will thus continue to worsen. Although the average age of coronavirus patients in intensive care is continuously decreasing, one in two patients still requires a respirator. The number of deaths has also been rising for the past week and was over 342 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, more than 21,000 new infections were reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

The decision to double the incidence limit for schools is justified by asking students to take a coronavirus rapid test twice a week. The central role in developing this calculus was played by Social Democratic Party (SPD) health politician Karl Lauterbach, who tweeted on Friday that schools could “stay open up to an incidence rate of 200” if “you test twice a week to do so.”

Teachers and parents stress that testing in its current form serves as an “alibi for reopening” schools. In the completely unsafe conditions at the schools themselves, this new policy will create high-risk situations. Moreover, model calculations by researchers at the Berlin Technical University have shown that the weekly incidence rate in May would still rise to 1,200 even if all schools and day-care centres conducted three tests a week under textbook conditions. Such a scenario would mean tens of thousands of deaths per week.

Year Six pupils carrying out a rapid test in the presence of the State Premier Malu Dreyer and State Education Minister Stefanie Hubig (both SPD). The students must remove their masks to conduct the test and count loudly up to twelve. (Screenshot Twitter, Rheinland Palatinate state government)

Even in the event of a possible end to face-to-face teaching, the draft law holds out “exceptions” for “graduating classes” as well as the possibility of so-called “emergency care” in schools, so that parents can continue to work, and exams can be carried out. To this end, companies are to be “obliged to offer tests” through an amendment to the Occupational Health and Safety Regulations, which, however, will not come into force for at least a week and does not require any proof of the results to be provided.

Meanwhile, the increase in the number of days a parent can take off when a child is ill from the current 20 to 30 days, being passed at the same time as the law, shines a spotlight on the fact that parents are still being forced to use up their personal sick and holiday days for quarantine orders and COVID-19 illnesses—even if they have been proven to have contracted the disease at work. The cabinet decision states that the children’s sick days are to be used by parents “to care for children even when schools and day-care centres are closed”—while foregoing 30 percent of their gross wages.

In addition to accelerating the infection among children and intensifying the exploitation of parents, the new Infection Protection Act also provides for further private contact restrictions and curfews in districts that have a weekly incidence level above 100 for three consecutive days. According to the draft law, in this case, “staying outside a dwelling is prohibited” between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m.—a formulation that is likely to expose homeless people in particular to police harassment.

While general curfews can be part of a rational health plan, depending on the pandemic situation, the government’s measure, in its current form, serves to distract from its criminal inactivity, increase the police presence after hours and to enflame right-wing extremists who completely oppose any fight against the pandemic. At the same time, the regulation could have a counterproductive effect, especially in the case of working class housing estates, multi-family apartment buildings, and student and refugee hostels. All these environments have repeatedly proved to be hotspots for so-called superspreading events during the pandemic.

This fact was explicitly acknowledged by leading scientists last Sunday. An open letter to the German government written by the Society for Aerosol Research (GAeF) urgently warns that coronavirus transmission is “extremely rare outdoors,” and it is rather “INSIDE the danger lurks.” Due to the “measures taken by politicians to combat the pandemic,” including “the curfews currently under discussion…many citizens... have misconceptions about the potential for infection associated with the virus” they write.

The new Infection Protection Act follows almost eight weeks of criminal inaction by the government, which had taken on increasingly aggressive features in recent weeks. While the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units began to rise exponentially from the beginning of March, the federal and state governments refused to implement the necessary lockdown, flatly ignored the cries for help from senior intensive care doctors and the protests of leading virologists, and instead systematically opened up schools and retail outlets.

On March 24, Chancellor Angela Merkel personally removed the so-called “Easter Truce,” which had only been agreed the day before by the meeting of federal-state politicians. She asked business leaders and trade associations for “forgiveness” and then disappeared almost completely from the political scene for a fortnight. Recently, the summit meeting of state premiers scheduled for Monday was also cancelled just a few days earlier.

In the meantime, the intensive care doctors association DIVI warns that the number of coronavirus intensive care patients threatens to rise to 7,000 before the end of April if developments remain unchanged. This figure is 23 percent higher than the previous peak at the beginning of the year, when intensive care units were on the verge of nationwide collapse, with 5,700 patients and more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths on many days. “Dear decision-makers, how high are the numbers supposed to go before you want to react?” tweeted the scientific director of the DIVI intensive care register, Christian Karagiannidis, last Wednesday.

In view of the impending overwhelming of hospitals, Lothar Wieler, President of the RKI, called on the media and politicians on Friday, “not to talk or discuss stupidly,” but to act immediately. Without a massive reduction in mobility, “many people will lose their lives,” he noted. “Every day we act later, we lose people.”

Indian hospitals overwhelmed amid over 100,000 COVID-19 cases daily

Wasantha Rupasinghe

India has had over 100,000 COVID-19 cases every day since April 5, endangering the lives of millions of people and pushing the country’s grossly underfunded public health care system to breaking point.

The disaster is a direct result of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which has allowed industries to keep operating with unsafe conditions, placing the profits of big business over human life. Indian state governments also share responsibility for the worsening situation.

People wearing masks as a precaution against the coronavirus stand in queues to board trains at Lokmanya Tilak Terminus in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, April 14, 2021. India's worst-hit and richest state Maharashtra will impose stricter restrictions for 15 days on Wednesday in an effort to stem the surge of coronavirus infections that is threatening to overcome hospitals. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

On Monday, India recorded 168,912 new COVID-19 cases, replacing Brazil as the second-most affected country in the world hit by the highly-infectious disease. According to under-counted figures provided by India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the country’s overall tally is now 13.7 million cases with the death toll surpassing 171,000.

In the past seven days—from April 5 to 11—India recorded over 937,000 cases, a 70 percent jump from the previous seven days, while the death toll hit 5,057—a 70 percent rise on the previous seven days. Reuters has reported that India’s death toll is on course to double in two months, according to estimates based on data from Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

India, the current epicentre of Asia’s COVID-19 pandemic, now has more than 12.01 million active cases that are overwhelming hospitals and their intensive care units and oxygen-equipped beds.

Health experts have reported a number of new COVID-19 variants, including a new “double mutant variant” and the highly-infectious UK variant, which are undoubtedly a major factor in the rapid increase in corona cases and deaths.

The western state of Maharashtra and home of India’s financial capital Mumbai, accounts for more than half of India’s new infections. On Monday, Maharashtra reported over 63,000 new coronavirus cases and 349 deaths.

The next day, Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray declared “Janata curfew” (but stopped short of calling it a lockdown) on the movement of people beginning at 8 p.m. on April 14 until May 1. The state government also imposed prohibitory orders under Section 144, which ban gatherings of more than five people for the same period.

Construction work and industrial production, however, will continue as usual, ensuring employers maintain their exploitation of workers and profits. The state government claimed there would be limited relief for those affected but small businessmen and traders are complaining that they have not received any subsidy to compensate for having to close their shops for the 15 days.

Despite the massive increase in deaths and infections, the Modi government has ruled-out a national lockdown. This was made clear in an April 8 video conference with chief ministers from various regional states.

Modi declared that COVID-19 infection figures were “very alarming in some states” and that “work on a war footing” should be resumed to prevent spread of the disease corona.” His so-called war footing, however, does not involve a national lockdown but a “corona curfew” from 9 p.m., until 5 or 6 a.m., and only in “small containment zones.”

Modi made the following outrageous and criminally irresponsible point: “Don’t make the entire locality a containment zone if there are two flats in a six-storey building where positive cases have been discovered. Don’t seal the nearby tower.”

This response guarantees that the disease will continue to rapidly spread in major cities like Mumbai, Chennai and New Delhi, where millions of poor people live in jam-packed, unhygienic shanties and social distancing is practically impossible.

Once again, Modi attempted to blame the population for the rising infection rates and deaths. “The root cause of the problem is that anybody who leads a routine life and considers it to be a minor disease spreads it to the entire family,” he arrogantly declared.

This is from a prime minister who, working on behalf of a tiny super-rich elite, is employing disastrous “herd immunity” policies that allows COVID-19 to surge unchecked throughout the country. Major Indian industries, including garment factories, have never sealed their doors, except for a brief period, and with only limited restrictions, during last year’s lockdown.

The indifferent and irresponsible attitude of the Modi government and its state counterparts has created a false sense security among broad layers of the population.

The BBC reported on April 12 that masses of Hindu devotees had bathed in the Ganges River, as part of the two-month-long Kumbh Mela religious festival. Officials told the news outlet that over 2.1 million devotees had already bathed in the river and “many more were expected to follow suit,”

The BBC report correctly warned: “Monday’s bathing day will help the infection spread faster among the devotees and that some of them could also take the virus back to their cities and villages in other parts of the country.”

Highlighting the government’s recklessness, it reported that although “the government had earlier said that only people with COVID negative reports would be allowed at the festival and that strict measures, like social distancing would be followed… a number of people, including top saints, have already tested positive.”

During his April 8 video conference, Modi also boasted that daily vaccinations had reached four million. Yet, according to a Reuters report on April 12, less than 4 percent of India’s 1.4 billion-strong population has been vaccinated. The news agency said that “experts say the situation could have a long way to go before it starts getting better.”

The Modi government has refused to make coronavirus vaccinations available for all age groups and is currently only vaccinating those over 45 years. Meanwhile, several media outlets have reported that there are vaccine shortages in at least half a dozen of states, including Maharashtra.

On April 12, the BBC, citing local government officials, said that the state’s current stock of 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines will last only three days. Vaccination centres in a number of districts in the state have been shut down due to lack of supplies.

During Modi’s meeting with chief ministers he falsely declared, “today, we have better resources” and therefore, “we can bring down this peak very fast and not allow it to go up.” The reality, however, is a disaster.

In Raipur, capital of the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, the Dr. Bhim Rao Ambedkar Memorial Hospital, the city’s largest medical facility, is running out of space to store the large number of COVID-19 dead. NDTV reported on April 12 that the dead were “piled on gurneys, lying on the floor and even outside in the sun by the dumpsters.”

These “skin-crawling scenes,” it added, “highlight the huge human cost of the second wave of COVID-19 in India and shows what happens when the country’s creaky healthcare system is pushed to its brink.”

University of Edinburgh Surgery Online Global Scholarships 2021/2022

Application Deadline: 1st June 2021.

Eligible Countries: Countries in Africa, South Asia, Caribbean Islands, Pacific Islands, Central and South America.

To Be Taken At (Country): Scotland, UK

Type: Masters

Eligibility:

• The scholarships will be awarded to applicants who are accepted for admission on to the MSc Surgical Sciences (Online Learning) and ChM (Online Learning) General Surgery, Urology, Trauma & Orthopaedics, Vascular & Endovascular.
• Applicants must be resident in a country listed in the World Bank list of low income /lower middle income countries.

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: Each scholarship will cover full tuition fees with consideration being given to a contribution towards cost of internet access.

Duration of Programme: 2 years

How to Apply:

1. Complete a EUCLID application – instructions on full application process can be found here: Edinburgh Surgery Online Courses Await feedback on application
2. If eligible to join the course, you will be given a conditional offer, which you must accept.
3. Complete the online application form for an Edinburgh Surgery Online Global Scholarship
4. The deadline for submission is the 1st of June 2021.

If your application for scholarship is successful and an IELTS exam is required to complete your EUCLID application, the cost will be met by the University of Edinburgh.

If the University’s criteria for English Language is met, you will be issued with an unconditional offer, which must also be accepted. 

Visit Award Webpage for Details

What are Turkey and the US Up to in Afghanistan?

M.K. Bhadrakumar

The zeal with which Washington is soliciting Turkey’s services to plot a way to normalize Afghanistan’s Taliban raises some troubling questions. Acting on Washington’s request, Turkey will be hosting high-level talks on the Afghanistan peace process this April to bring together the Afghan government and the Taliban. Turkey has appointed a special envoy to assume the mediation role.

Turkey is entering the cockpit to navigate the Afghan peace process to a conclusion that meets US objectives. This will have a salutary effect on the fraught Turkish-American relationship. The US appreciates that Turkey is an influential member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, enjoys historical links with Afghanistan and has a positive image among Afghans. But digging deeper, the unholy US-Turkey alliance in the Syrian conflict creates disquiet.

The Pentagon and CIA are reluctant to vacate Afghanistan by the deadline of May 1. Turkey will be overseeing an open-ended US-NATO presence. The US hopes to retain a strong intelligence presence backed by special operations forces. A report Friday from CNN disclosed that “CIA, which has had a significant say in US decision-making in Afghanistan, has ‘staked out some clear positions’ during recent deliberations, arguing in favour of continuing US involvement.”

The scale of the CIA activities in Afghanistan are not in the public domain — especially, whether its regional mandate extends beyond the borders of Afghanistan. The CNN report cited above lifted the veil on “one of the most heavily guarded bases” of the CIA — Forward Operating Base Chapman, “a classified US military installation in eastern Afghanistan.”

Suffice to say, given the presence of the ISIS fighters (including those transferred from Syria to Afghanistan — allegedly in US aircraft, according to Russia and Iran) — the nexus between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and above all, the presence of Uighur, Central Asian and Chechen terrorists, Turkey’s induction as the US’ buddy in Afghanistan is indeed worrisome for regional states. Turkey has transferred jihadi fighters from Idlib to Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh to fight hybrid wars.

Significantly, Turkey has abruptly shifted its stance on the Uighur issue after years of passivity and hyped it up as a diplomatic issue between Ankara and Beijing. China’s ambassador to Ankara was summoned to Turkey’s Foreign Ministry last Tuesday.

On the other hand, a perceptible “thaw” in the US-Turkey relations is under way. During the recent NATO ministerial in Brussels, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken underscored, “I believe having Turkey in  NATO is particularly for the benefit of us.” Clearly, any American overtures to Turkey will be in need of a powerful success story. That is where Turkey’s mediatory role in Afghanistan and a potential role in post-settlement Afghanistan become templates of Washington’s dual containment strategy toward Russia and China.

Turkey has staked claims for the mantle of leadership of the Turkic world stretching from the Black Sea to the steppes of Central Asia and Xinjiang. Simply put, Turkish role in Afghanistan and Central Asia will challenge its relationship with Russia, which is already under strain in Libya, Syria, Caucasus and potentially in the Black Sea and the Balkans. In a phone conversation on April 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Turkish president Recep Erdogan about “the importance of preserving the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits with a view to ensuring regional stability and security.” The Montreux convention regulates the passage of naval warships through the Bosporous.

Equally, the US hopes to keep Iran off balance regionally by encouraging Turkish revanchism. The Turkish-Iranian rivalry is already palpable in Iraq where Washington hopes to establish NATO as a provider of security. Serious rifts between Ankara and Tehran appear also over Nagorno-Karabakh. Thus, Afghanistan’s future figured prominently in the discussions during Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif’s recent 6-day regional tour of Central Asian capitals.

China and Russia are vigilant about the US intentions in Afghanistan.) And both have problematic relations with Erdogan. Turkey’s ascendance on the Afghan-Central Asian landscape cannot be to their comfort. During his recent visit to Tehran, China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi voiced support for Iran’s membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to visit Tehran on April 14.

Overall, these geopolitical realignments are taking place as the US intensifies its suppression of China and Russia. But, for Turkey, the intervention in Syria has proved profitable. The Turkish-controlled territories of northern Syria consists of a 8,835-square-kilometre area already and Ankara has no intentions to vacate its occupation.

Turkey will no doubt look for similar gains. For a start, regaining primacy in the western alliance system as the US’ irreplaceable partner and as Europe’s interlocutor with Muslim Middle East has always been a Turkish dream. A clincher will be whether Washington can prevail upon the EU to grant some special dispensation for Turkey — “associate membership” is one possibility.

For EU, too, Turkey becomes a key partner if NATO is to consolidate in the Black Sea and encircle Russia in its backyard. Turkey has already positioned itself as a provider of security for the anti-Russian regime in Ukraine. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky visited Erdogan on Saturday against the backdrop of rising tensions with Russia.

Turkish officials are cautiously optimistic about recent high-level efforts to improve dialogue between Ankara and Brussels. The European actors are coordinating with Washington. The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel’s visit to Ankara last Wednesday can be seen as a significant initial effort to improve relations with Turkey. As one Turkish commentator put it, the “olive branch” given by the EU leaders to Erdogan has “five main leaves”:

• Concrete agenda on economic cooperation and migration;

• Handling and updating the problems related to the Customs Union;

• Commitment to continue the flow of funds for refugees in Turkey;

• Adding momentum to the relations with Turkey on key cooperation areas; and,

• The Eastern Mediterranean security and stability.

All in all, Turkey is being “incentivised” to get back into the western fold and play its due role as NATO power. Today, Turkey is probably the only ally regionally and internationally that Washington can lean on to wean Pakistan away from the orbit of influence of China and Russia, which truly makes Turkey an indispensable partner for the US and NATO in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

Indeed, Russia and Turkey have been historically rivals in Afghanistan. Turkey has deep-rooted centuries-old pan-Islamic ties with Afghanistan that by far predate Pakistan’s creation in 1947. How far Pakistan will be willing to play a subaltern role in future Afghanistan remains to be seen. But then, all this must be having Russia worried in regard of the security and stability of its Central Asian backyard and North Caucasia. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Islamabad last week was the first such ministerial since 2012.

Fundamentally, the contradictions in US-Turkey relations will not simply wither away — US’ alliance with Kurds in Syria; US opposition to Turkey’s intervention in Libya; Erdogan’s abysmal human rights record; discord over Turkey’s S-400 missile deal with Russia; and so on. But the two Cold War allies are also used to finessing contradictions whenever opportunities came their way to work together to mutual benefit.

Without doubt, in the power dynamic of the highly strategic regions surrounding Afghanistan, the two countries can look forward to a “win-win” cooperation.

The UK’s Northern Irish Brexit Blues

Kenneth Surin

Northern Ireland has now become the focal point of the UK’s post-Brexit crisis.

While the connection between the more than a week of rioting by Protestant “Loyalists” and Brexit may not seem obvious, some, such as the Northern Ireland justice minister, Naomi Long, say the UK prime minister Boris “BoJo” Johnson’s “dishonesty” over the still-to-be-decided Brexit border has exacerbated the situation.

The protocol agreed between the EU and the UK fudged the issue of the land border between the UK-member Northern Ireland (NI) and the EU-member Republic of Ireland to NI’s south.

The Brexit deal put NI in a distinctive and somewhat anomalous position — legally part of the UK, but at the same time within the EU’s customs regime and part of the single market, with some exceptions, where trade is concerned.

This uncertainty over a nonstandard border between the Protestant-dominated NI and its neighbouring Catholic-majority Irish Republic has made more appealing the prospect of a united Ireland, primarily for economic reasons— such a reunion would confer the huge benefit of direct access to EU markets for NI, without the encumbrances involved in being tied to the UK.

NI is currently in the economic doldrums because of uncertainty over the UK-EU border issue.

At the same time, the merest prospect of a reunion with its Catholic neighbour alarms a significant part of the Protestant-majority NI.

NI’s Protestants would of course become a minority in a reunified Ireland, and many “Prots”, albeit of an increasingly older generation, would welcome the imposition of a hard border with its neighbour to the south, if only as an ever more redundant and forlorn symbol of NI’s ties to the UK.

BoJo was warned repeatedly (by the Biden administration no less) that any Brexit deal which compromised the Good Friday peace agreement between the two parts of Ireland would run the likelihood of jeopardizing that peace. These apprehensions are starting to be realized on the volatile streets of Belfast.

BoJo’s groveling before Donald Trump showed how desperate he is for a UK-US trade deal to help replace trade lost when the UK left the EU. The pro-Irish Biden won’t offer BoJo the sniff of such a deal while the streets of Belfast are burning.

Meanwhile, the EU is taking legal action against the UK after the latter announced it will waive paperwork on food entering NI, an open breach of the Brexit agreement.

BoJo’s overwhelming electoral priority was securing a Brexit deal via any pretense under the Ukanian sun (those susceptible to omens may know that this sun is notorious for shielding itself behind rainy grey clouds, just read a novel by Dickens or Henry James?) — BoJo doesn’t give a rat’s posterior for maintaining peace in Ireland, nor for the greatly increased possibility of a push for independence on the part of the EU-supporting Scotland.

A few days ago, Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said a fresh referendum on independence would impossible to resist should her party, the Scottish National Party (SNP), secure a majority in next month’s elections for the Scottish parliament.

Every opinion poll so far indicates the SNP will win this election.

The vagaries of its first-past-the-post electoral system ensure that UK general elections are largely determined by votes cast in England, and playing to the Brexit-inclined English electorate was BoJo’s overwhelming objective in the 2019 election.

The English chauvinist BoJo probably won’t lose any sleep over rioting in Belfast, there being for now no real likelihood that his whopping 80-seat parliamentary majority in Westminster (London) will be threatened by unrest in NI.

The ex-London mayor BoJo’s view of the political universe has always been somewhat London-centric, except perhaps when it comes to obtaining munificence, legally mind you, from shady Kremlin oligarchs and Gulf Sheikhs.

Responding to the unrest in Belfast, BoJo joined every other mainstream politician, British and Irish alike, in issuing his pro forma statement denouncing the criminality of thugs and hooligans, etc.

The violence in Belfast obscures for now the other drawbacks to the UK’s ramshackle Brexit deal.

Also contributing to the muddying of the economic impact of Brexit is the economic boost provided by the pent-up demand generated by the Covid lockdowns—with pubs, restaurants, and shops shuttered, and holiday travel vastly curtailed, Brits spent much less than usual, precipitating a retail crash and recession.

With the latest lockdown about to be lifted after a successful vaccination rollout, the expectation, especially in Downing Street, is that Brits will embark on a spending spree.

There are 2 counter-indications to this rosy scenario.

The first is that many Brits lost their jobs during the lockdowns, and these unfortunate individuals, if they obtain post-lockdown employment, will probably be paying-off debt rather than hitting the shopping malls.

The second is that none of the Brexit deal’s structural weaknesses will be removed by a burst of short-term household spending—there are only so many new cars, fridges, and flat-screen TVs a household needs or can afford.

The other distraction from any Brexit woes is the death of the queen’s husband, Prince Philip. All the UK mainstream media are giving this event saturation coverage, so much so that a growing number of Brits are turning off their TVs in sheer frustration. The Prince’s death has even eclipsed the Meghan Markle-Harry media drama as the cynosure of attention.

BoJo is benefitting (for now) from a vaccination “bounce”.

The latest Opinium poll for The Observer found that 44% now approve of the government’s Covid handling, with 36% disapproving. Overall, the poll recorded a 9-point lead for the Conservatives over Labour, the largest Tory lead since last May. This despite the fact that the UK’s death toll, just over 127,000, remains one of the highest in the world per 1000 of population.

Major events surrounding the royal family—births, marriages, funerals— usually provide a boost for the “king/queen and country” Conservatives.

If the Tories receive a helping hand from Philip’s death, Labour will be in deep trouble when local council elections take place in 3 weeks’ time.

The Tories have always had an electoral advantage from Ukania’s structurally unbalanced political system.

Now with the vaccination “bounce” and the royalist psychodrama (a hint here is provided by the BBC’S description of Philip as “the grandfather of the nation”) providing the Tories with yet another step-up the electoral ladder as “the nation’s grandfather’s” funeral takes place on live TV– there is talk in the media of the lacklustre Labour leader Keir Starmer being deposed from the party leadership should Labour receive its expected trouncing in the polls.

To think that in the 21^st century, an advanced industrial country could have a fictive “grandfather of the nation” helping undermine the electoral prospects of its main opposition party!

In that country, to resort to a cliché, the surreal has now become its real.

The Northern Irish have of course experienced English surrealities for centuries, but then they have never really mattered for an England-dominated UK.

The riot has always been their voice, as it is now.