1 Sept 2023

Catastrophic floods and forest fires kill dozens and leave thousands homeless in Chile

Mauricio Saavedra


Catastrophic floods have again impacted the central-southern region of Chile, leaving three dead and thousands homeless. For the second time since June this year an “atmospheric river”— a narrow corridor of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere—unloaded for six uninterrupted days over the regions of Valparaíso, Santiago, O’Higgins, Ñuble, Maule and Biobío, a stretch 700 kilometers long.

The coastal city of Licantén in the Maule Region, with some 6,600 inhabitants, inundated by the Mataquito River for the second time. [Photo: @CarabinerosMaule]

To this calamity is added the forest fires of last January in the same regions of Maule, Ñuble, Biobío as well as La Araucanía, which claimed the lives of 26 people, destroyed 2,450 homes and burnt through 426,000 hectares dominated by agribusinesses and pine and eucalyptus plantations.

Contributing to the situation are record high temperatures caused by climate change and the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon. Warmer temperatures during the southern hemisphere’s current winter season raised to 3,000 meters the zero-degree isotherm, the altitude at which it is 0°C on the Andes mountain ranges that run the length of the country. 

This has the effect of precipitation falling as rain where snow would normally have fallen. The excess water on mountainous terrain generates a runoff that travels at an extraordinary velocity, dragging along everything in its path and causing landslides and flooding of the river systems.

On August 21, the day President Gabriel Boric declared a state of catastrophe in the four southern rural regions, more than 26,000 people were cut off from basic services, 34,000 had to be evacuated and 38,000 were left without electricity. By August 23 the floods had claimed three lives.

By August 24, 204 homes were completely destroyed, 10,613 had major damage, 27,506 had minor damage and 16,893 homes were still under evaluation. This is on top of more than 5,400 homes destroyed or damaged last June. Moreover, according to the National Disaster Prevention and Response System, the floods caused infrastructure damage to 28 bridges, 522 roads, nine medical facilities, and 312 educational facilities.

In one incident in Valparaíso a 17-story apartment building had to be evacuated when a 30-meter sinkhole opened five meters away, swallowing part of the road. Torrential rains created a landslide next to a complex of expensive condominiums that was built in the 2000s after developers demanded they be allowed to construct on a nature sanctuary comprised of dunes.

The builder, Besalco construction, was quick to deflect responsibility, claiming that structurally the building was sound and reiterating claims made by authorities that “the collapse of the land adjacent to the building was a result of the failure of the rainwater collector located in the public road, which was designed and built by a third party… as part of the urbanization of a large sector.”

Mónica Seins, a pensioner who was forced to indefinitely evacuate her apartment, responded to the construction company: “They are not responsible because the structure of the building is not damaged, obviously, of course, it is not damaged yet, but there is no street, so who builds where there is no street, how can they wash their hands, I mean, that is what we have come to in this country.” 

In a similar incident in the Maule Region, 440 houses built less than 50 meters from the banks of the Guaiquillo River were inundated with mud and debris, forcing the residents to abandon their homes.

Again, the construction company, Constructora Galilea—which belongs to the family of the senator representing the region, Rodrigo Galilea (National Renewal)—denied any responsibility stating that the project complied with building regulations and had authorization from the municipality and other authorities. All true. In 2011, Galilea, then as head of the regional government, rubber-stamped changes to the regulatory plans made three years earlier that allowed for the construction of houses on what was previously a zone prone to flooding.

According to Business News Americas the June and August floods are estimated to have caused US$900 million in infrastructure and housing damage—almost annulling the financing and construction carried out as part of the government’s Emergency Housing Project, which has been mired in a corruption scandal. A staggering 650,000 families are officially without access to housing.

Meanwhile US $1.1 billion in damages has been caused to the agricultural sector still reeling from the June floods. Some 274,000 hectares of arable land were flooded. Here Boric was quicker to come to the rescue, decreeing a “State of Agricultural Emergency” to free state resources for agribusiness and the wine industries.

For good measure, Chile continues to be “the country with the greatest water crisis in the entire western hemisphere (with) about 80 percent of its territory affected by drought for a decade and a half,” reported CNN Chile last week.

It continued: “Experts blame the lack of water on the scarcity of rainfall, but also on the water ownership regime, 80 percent of which is in private hands, mainly in the hands of large agricultural, mining and energy companies.”

In 1980 Gen. Pinochet enshrined the privatization of water in the constitution and adopted a market-based allocation system to sell off the nation’s water. Privatization took off under the civilian center-left administration of Eduardo Frei (1994-2000) who privatized the sanitation system and cleared the way for international firms to own water rights. By 2018, the ultra-right billionaire demagogue, president Sebastian Piñera, was auctioning off rivers.

Today water rights for consumption use are held by big capital in the agricultural and forestry sector (77 percent), the mining sector (13 percent), the industrial sector (7 percent ) and the health sector (3 percent). Eighty-one percent of the water rights that are not used for consumption are controlled by an Italian company. Moreover drinking water supplies—for which the population pays the highest rates in Latin America—is owned by the transnational groups Suez, Agrab and Marubeni and by the Ontario teachers’ pension fund. 

Boric came to power on the promise that this would all dramatically change under his Apruebo Dignidad administration: “Chile will bury neo-liberalism” he claimed during the 2021 presidential election campaign. The pseudo-left president in particular trumpeted his environmentalist credentials and on the critical water question had this to say: 

“Water must be guaranteed for everyone as a human right. Our commitment as a government is to ensure the water supply for thousands of families that today live in precariousness and to put an end to the privileges of those who monopolize it. For a better Chile with free water!” 

Of course, he forgot about this promise as he has every other. But here is the nub of the matter: even if a bourgeois government proposed a plan that in any way impacted on private property, it would encounter the wrath of vast transnational corporations and their financial backers who own not only the water but the land, the natural riches, the means of production and the material wealth created by the collective labor of the working class.

Modern science, technology and technique are more than up to the task of dealing with floods, forest fires, drought, pandemics and all the other calamities afflicting modern civilization. The fundamental question is, which class controls these products of social man’s labor and knowledge.

Military coup ousts Bongo political dynasty in Gabon

Athiyan Silva


On Wednesday, a month after a military coup in Niger, the military ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba in Gabon, an oil-rich former French colony in central Africa.

A defaced billboard of Gabon President Ali Bongo Ondimba is seen on an empty street of Libreville, Gabon, Wednesday August 30, 2023 [AP Photo/Yves Laurent]

The coup in Gabon brings to eight the total number of coups Africa has seen since August 2020 and the subsequent withdrawal of French occupation troops from Mali. There have been two coups in Mali, three in its neighbors—two in Burkina Faso and one in Niger—and one in Guinea and in Sudan. All these countries except Sudan were former French colonies that even today are oppressed and exploited by French imperialism.

The Gabonese coup followed contested presidential elections, after which the National Electoral Commission initially announced that Bongo had won the elections with 64.27 percent of the vote.

The military thereupon launched a coup, annulling the election and declaring the dissolution of all the institutions of the Gabonese republic. The military commander who took power in Gabon, General Bryce Oligui Nguma, has been named a “leader of transition” by the military. He is to be sworn in as the “interim president” this coming Monday.

The military maintained the curfew, imposed four days earlier by the Bongo regime, after the election. Gabon’s borders are closed, and there is a nationwide Internet blackout.

The self-proclaimed Comité de Transition et de Restauration des Institutions (CTRI) junta announced on state television that Bongo, his family and his doctors were all under house arrest. It also arrested Bongo’s son and closest adviser, Noureddin Bongo Valentin, Bongo’s chief of staff Ian Ghislain Ngoulou, his deputy Mohamed Ali Saliou, another presidential adviser, Abdul Hosseini, and presidential spokesperson Jessye Ella Ekogha, and several top members of Bongo’s Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG).

It charged them with “high treason against the institutions of the State, massive misappropriation of public funds, organized international financial embezzlement, forgery, falsification of the signature of the President of the Republic, active corruption, and drug trafficking.’’

Bongo, who has been under house arrest since the coup, said in an anonymous video that he “doesn’t know what’s going on” and appealed to “his friends around the world to make noise.”

In the streets of the Gabonese capital, Libreville, however, there were protests celebrating the fall of the brutal Bongo political dynasty.

The record of the Bongo family is a classic case of the incapacity of the bourgeoisie in countries of belated capitalist development to secure independence from imperialism. Ali’s father Omar Bongo became president in 1967, seven years after Gabon gained formal independence from French colonial rule in 1960. After the death of Omar Bongo in Gabon in 2009, his son Ali Bongo continued his father’s oppressive rule for 14 years.

Omar Bongo kept power by placing Gabon’s oil resources in the hands of foreign, primarily French oil companies. For decades, its oil industry was run by the French oil company Elf, now absorbed into Total Energy. Oil revenues were stolen by corrupt French businessmen and politicians, except for a small portion that was used to bribe the ruling clique around Bongo. This plundering of Gabon’s economy left broad layers of the Gabonese people in grinding poverty.

Even after the Bongo regime somewhat diversified its economic ties in recent decades, France still has about 400 troops stationed in Gabon for training and military support, including a base in Libreville to protect its extensive economic interests there.

Oil-rich, a member of the OPEC oil nations, Gabon produces about 181,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It is the eighth largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa. By assisting imperialism in plundering these resources, the ruling clique around the Bongo family amassed enormous wealth, buying up luxury properties in France, Morocco and other countries.

At the same time, living on less than 2 dollars a day is a harsh reality for many of Gabon’s citizens, with a third of the population officially living below the poverty line.

Only 20 percent of Gabon’s population owns 90 percent of its wealth. The unemployment rate in 2022 reached 21.47 percent. More than half of the population lives in the two cities of Libreville and Port-Gentil. In the crowded slums of Libreville, many migrant workers and local Gabonese live in absolute poverty. Thousands of people in Gabon’s urban areas lack reliable sources of food, water, or proper access to sanitation.

The Gabonese military junta has no solution to any of the social and economic problems facing workers, youth and the rural masses in Gabon and across Africa. Like the leaders of recent coups in other African countries, it emerges from an officer corps with a long tradition of close, incestuous ties with imperialism. It decided to oust Bongo in a sudden shift driven by concern over mounting mass anger across Africa against the NATO imperialist powers, particularly France, and their military operations.

Nguma, who is to serve as “interim president,” was in fact one of the pillars of Bongo’s security system, heading the Gabonese army’s notorious, repressive Republican Guard Brigade. Since April 2020, he has headed this French-trained unit, which ensures the security of the president and key government and foreign institutions in Gabon.

Major powers internationally have criticized the coup but left open what relations they may develop with the CTRI junta in Libreville. Unlike the military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the CTRI junta has not yet declared their intention to expel French troops deployed in Gabon.

France “condemns the military coup in Gabon”, government spokesman Olivier Véran told reporters in Paris. Véran said France was “following the events in Gabon with great attention” and that the results of last Saturday’s presidential election “should be respected.”

The financial magazine L’Opinion spoke bluntly as to the concerns in French ruling circles over the coup. “The putsch in Gabon threatens the activities of some 85 French corporations that are present in the country,” the magazine stated, adding that Gabon is a key supplier of critical raw materials. “Uranium, manganese, oil … France stands to lose a lot in Africa,” it wrote.

Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement that the UK condemns “the unconstitutional military seizure of power in Gabon and calls for the restoration of constitutional government.”

Washington urged the military to “protect civilian rule” without explicitly condemning the coup. At the same time, it called the situation in the African country “deeply concerning”, with White House national security spokesman John Kirby declaring that the US remains “a supporter of the people in the region, a supporter of the people of Gabon and of their demand for democratic governance.”

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council announced on August 31 the immediate suspension of “Gabon’s participation in all activities of the AU, its organs and institutions.”

The state-run daily Global Times of China, a major trading partner and infrastructure developer in countries across Africa, wrote: “China calls for restoration of peace and order in Gabon. At the same time the West expresses concerns about self-interest. Military coups show the failure of regime and political reforms promoted by the West.”

The coups across France’s former colonial empire are the product of over a decade of bloody NATO wars of plunder, including the 2011 NATO war in Libya, the 2013-2022 French war in Mali, and now the bloody NATO-Russia war in Ukraine. As anger surges among African workers and youth, military juntas are toppling unpopular African governments and demanding a renegotiation of their ties with France to expel its troops from their territory.

China property market crisis deepens

Nick Beams


Every day seems to bring a new turn in the deepening property, real estate and associated financial crisis in China amid rising concerns in the business world that the government is not doing enough to alleviate, much less, overcome it.

A man rides on an electric bike past by a residential buildings under construction in Beijing on June 5, 2023. [AP Photo/Andy Wong]

On Wednesday, the real estate developer Country Gardens, until recently held up as a model of financial stability, announced it had made a record loss of 48.9 billion renminbi, the equivalent of around $US7 billion, for the first half of the year.

The losses are the highest ever for the Quandong-based group, and, as the Financial Times noted, “highlight the dire outlook for an industry typically responsible for more than a quarter of economic activity in China.”

They indicate an accelerating decline. The company made a loss of 6.7 billion renminbi for the second half of 2022 following a profit of 612 million renminbi in the first half.

In a statement on the loss, Country Gardens said it might not be able to meet its debt obligations “which may result in a default” and pointed to “material uncertainties” that could cast “significant doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a going concern.”

If it does go under then it will have a bigger impact than the failure of the property developer Evergrande because Country Gardens has four times as many property projects.

The company said it had increased sales by 39 percent but had “struck a balance” between sales volume and selling price at some of its property projects to ensure punctual delivery of finished properties. This is an indication that it has been forced to cut prices in order to maintain cash flow—a sure sign of major problems.

Country Garden’s issues first came into public view last month when it missed coupon payments on two international bonds. It has until September 6 to make the payments before it can be declared to be in default.

The company may well make the payments, but its financial problems are clearly worsening because earlier this week it asked creditors to give it a 40-day grace period for payments on renminbi bonds that are maturing next week.

The problems of Country Garden are reflected across the board with data published by Dealogic revealing that Chinese developers must make $38 billion worth of payments in renminbi and international bonds due over the next four months.

Bruce Pang, the chief economist for Greater China at the global real estate firm JLL, told the Financial Times: “Developer defaults will certainly continue as almost all private developers face cash flow pressure that isn’t going away any time soon.”

Pang said that any support from the government that did come would need time to feed through to cash flow and new construction starts.

Financial authorities have promised greater support, but the relaxation of some interest rates and the promise of cuts by major banks on existing mortgages are regarded as insufficient. There are calls for a major stimulus package but so far there is little sign of that coming from the government which has been trying to reduce debt levels in the economy.

This lack of confidence and the concerns over a liquidity crisis for the real estate sector were reflected in the Hong Kong stock market when shares in the property developer Evergrande, which defaulted on its debts in 2021, made a reappearance after an absence of 17 months. They fell by almost 90 percent.

The liquidity problems extend far beyond the property sector and are reaching into the shadow banking system.

Major concerns have been raised over the trust fund Zhongrong and its parent entity Zhongzhi after they halted payments to wealthy investors attracted by the higher interest rates available elsewhere, some of which has been invested in the property market.

Bloomberg has reported major financial firms, one linked to the Citi group and CCB Trust, an entity backed by the China Construction Bank, have been asked by authorities to examine the books of Zhongrong “potentially paving the way for a state-led rescue of the troubled shadow bank lender, according to people familiar with the matter” who asked not to be identified.

According to the report: “While losses have been building in the trust industry for years, Zhongzhi may pose the biggest challenge yet. The private firm manages more than 1 trillion yuan (renminbi) and its interconnectedness with wealthy investors, struggling developers and other financial institutions has spurred concerns that troubles are beginning to cascade across the financial industry.”

The $2.9 trillion trust industry has been an important source of finance for weaker borrowers unable to get regular bank loans for property development, but now the decline in the housing and real estate market threatens to bring about collapses in this risk-laden area of the financial system.

Zhongrong and Zhongzhi won’t be the last. Goldman Sachs has estimated that the total losses could be the equivalent of $38 billion.

The growing China financial crisis has drawn the attention of the London-based Economist magazine. This week it ran a major article entitled “China’s shadow banking industry threatened its financial system.”

It noted that when Xinhua Trust went bankrupt last May it was the first trust company to go under in more than two decades.

Pointing to the reasons, the article said the country’s growth was weaker than expected and property developers were “caught in an unprecedented wave of defaults and restructurings.” Trust funds, which channel money from investors into infrastructure, property and other developments, were exposed to both.

The Economist said given that the initial losses in trust funds will be borne by wealthy investors this may not set off a fully-fledged financial crisis giving “the government time to clean up the mess.”

After noting the Bloomberg report that the banking regulator had set up a task force to investigate the problems at Zhongzhi, the article said, “given the vast, shadowy connections such firms have across the economy, government inspectors might not like whey they find.”

31 Aug 2023

Government Of Ireland Master’s & PhD Scholarships 2024/2025

Application Deadline: 12th October 2023

Eligible Countries: National and International

To Be Taken At (Country): Ireland

About the Award: The Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship Programme is an established national initiative, funded by the Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science, and managed by the Council.

The Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship Programme is unique in the Irish research landscape and complements other channels for funded postgraduate education in the Irish ecosystem. Among its features are:

  • individual, prestigious awards for excellent research in the name of the applicant;
  • an objective selection process using international, independent expert peer review;
  • funding across all disciplines, from archaeology to zoology; and
  • awards for bottom-up, non-directed research, with the exception of those funded by our strategic funding partners.

Pioneering proposals addressing new and emerging fields of research or those introducing creative, innovative approaches are welcomed. Proposals of an interdisciplinary nature are also encouraged as it is recognised that advancing fundamental understanding is achieved by integrating information, techniques, tools and perspectives from two or more disciplines.

The Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship Programme is highly competitive, with an average success rate of 18% over the past five years. Successful awardees under the programme are recognised as demonstrating world-class potential as future research leaders.

Type: Masters (by Research), PhD

Eligibility: Applicants from any country may hold a Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship, however applicants will fall under one of two categories based on nationality and residency

  • Applicants must fulfil the following criteria:
    • have a first class or upper second-class honours bachelor’s, or the equivalent, degree. If undergraduate examination results are not known at the time of application, the Council may make a provisional offer of a scholarship on condition that the scholar’s bachelor’s, or the equivalent degree result is a first class or upper second-class honours. If a scholar does not have a first class or upper second-class honours bachelor’s, or the equivalent, degree, they must possess a master’s degree. The Council’s determination of an applicant’s eligibility on these criteria is final;
    • must not have had two previous unsuccessful applications to the programme, including strategic partner themes. This includes applications since 2010 to the EMBARK Scheme previously run by the Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and Technology, and the Government of Ireland Scholarship Scheme previously run by the Irish Council for Humanities and Social Sciences;
    • in the case of applications for a research master’s scholarship, applicants must not currently hold, or have previously held, a Council Postgraduate Scholarship;
    • in the case of applications for a doctoral degree scholarship, applicants must not currently hold, or have previously held, any Council Postgraduate Scholarship other than those which would enable them to obtain a research master’s degree
  • Applicants from any country may hold a Government of Ireland Postgraduate Scholarship, however applicants will fall under one of two categories based on nationality and residency
  • For category one, applicants must meet BOTH of the following criteria:
    • be a national of a European Union member state, Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein or Switzerland
      AND
    • have been ordinarily resident in a European Union member state, Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein or Switzerland for a continuous period of three of the five years preceding 1 October 2023.

All other applicants will fall under category two.

While the majority of scholarships will be awarded to applicants who fall under category one, a proportion of awards will also be made to exceptional applicants who fall under category two. Please note that the Council may request documented evidence of an applicant’s nationality and residence.

Number of Awards: Not specified

Value of Award: The value of the scholarship will be up to a maximum of €28,000 per annum in any approved year and will consist of the following:

  • a stipend of €19,000 per annum;
  • a contribution to fees, including non-EU fees, up to a maximum of €5,750 per annum; and
  • eligible direct research expenses of €3,250 per annum.

Duration of Program:

  • Research master’s degree: 12 months
  • Structured research master’s degree: 24 months
  • Traditional doctoral degree: 36 months
  • Structured doctoral degree: 48 months

How to Apply: Potential applicants should read the 2024 Call Documents like the FAQ as well as Terms and Conditions carefully to ascertain whether or not they are eligible to apply. Indicative versions of the applicant, supervisor and referee forms are provided for information purposes only. All participants must create and submit their forms via the online system.

Visit Program Webpage for Details

King Abdullah University Of Science And Technology (KAUST) Fellowship 2024

APPLICATION DEADLINE:

1st October 2023

Tell Me About Award:

The Master’s and Doctoral (Ph.D.) degree program requirements represent general university-level expectations. The specific details of each degree requirements are outlined in the descriptions of the individual degree programs.

KAUST Offers The Following Degree Programs

  • PG Diploma
  • Master’s Program
  • ​Ph.D. Program

TYPE:

Master, PhD

Who Can Apply?

Master’s: Admission to the Master of Science (M.S.) program requires the satisfactory completion of an undergraduate science degree in a relevant or related area, such as Engineering, Mathematics or the Physical, Chemical and Biological Sciences. 

Admission to the Postgraduate Diploma (PGDip) program requires applicants to satisfy the following entry requirements:

  • A Bachelor’s degree in a science or engineering-related topic from a higher education institution recognized by KAUST 
  • English Language Requirements : All applicants are required to have a minimum of IELTS 6.5, or TOEFL 79 

PhD: Admission to the Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) program requires the satisfactory completion of an undergraduate or master’s degree in science in a relevant or related area, such as Engineering, Mathematics or the Physical, Chemical and Biological Sciences. 

WHICH COUNTRIES ARE ELIGIBLE?

International

WHERE WILL AWARD BE TAKEN?

Saudi Arabia

HOW MANY AWARDS?

Not specified

What Is The Benefit Of Award?

Every admitted student earns the KAUST Fellowship, which grants them:

  • Full Free Tuition Support
  • Monthly Living Allowance (From $20,000 to $30,000 annually, depending on qualifications and degree progress)
  • On-Campus Housing
  • Medical and dental coverage
  • Relocation Support

At KAUST, every admitted student receives the KAUST Fellowship. Enroll in our renowned graduate programs tuition-free. Live on the shores of the Red Sea, conducting groundbreaking research in our state-of-the-art research centers.

Work on some of the most pressing issues facing the world today, from environmental crisis to global water and food supply challenges. Explore next-level research with our world-class faculty to solve the problems of the future TODAY.

Join our unique community. Combine an international graduate experience with KAUST’s unsurpassed research opportunities and quality of life.

How To Apply:

Graduate Admissions Requirements Include:

  • Official university transcripts
  • Curriculum Vitae (CV)
  • Statement of purpose
  • Three letters of recommendation
  • Official TOEFL or IELTS Academic score
  • Official GRE scores (GRE submission is encouraged and will enhance an application, but it is not compulsory)

KAUST ADMISSION PROCESS

Admission Review

Your Application must be complete for it to be reviewed by the Admissions Office. If your file is missing documents, you will be asked to submit them before it can be reviewed.

Faculty Review Committee

If your application passes Admissions review, it will be evaluated by the faculty review committee of each program.

Academic Interview

If selected, you will be invited for an academic interview with KAUST Faculty.

KAUST Interview

This is a personal interview, either via Skype video chat and/or in person.

Apply here

Visit Award Webpage for Details

Close to two million died in China during the weeks after the Zero-COVID policy was lifted

Benjamin Mateus


The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not made public any real accounting of the death toll since the ruling Chinese Communist Party abandoned its Zero-COVID policy on December 7, 2022, and allowed a tsunami of infections to wash over the country, infecting upwards of 90 percent of the population. 

Despite the deluge of COVID cases, inundated health systems and mass cremations that were underway, Chinese health officials persisted in minimizing the extent of the crisis, stating that at most 60,000 people had died between early December and January 12, 2023. However, daily reporting by the national ministry completely ceased towards the end of December. 

Official total of COVID deaths in China. Most estimates place the death toll at ten times or even more than these figures. [Photo: Our World in Data]

On February 9, 2023, near the tail-end of the winter Omicron wave across mainland China, daily deaths began being reported again. However, the official cumulative COVID death toll stood at a mere 83,150, which was widely understood as a vast undercount. This was because only hospital deaths from respiratory failure and a confirmed COVID test was counted, which excluded those who were not tested or who died from other COVID-related causes or who never made it to the hospital. 

Estimates provided at that time by the UK-based predictive health analytics company Airfinity placed the death toll at a horrific 1.3 million by the first week of February. Other university-based researchers had indicated a range of between one and two million fatalities. More recent empirically based studies have only corroborated these grim early estimates and modeling analysis of the catastrophic loss of life that took place.

Before reviewing these, it bears noting that one year prior, on February 8, 2022, before the Omicron surge began to chip away at China’s public health defenses, Our World in Data (OWD) had placed the official death toll from COVID in China at 5,700, at a time when the official global tally had reached a grim figure of six million and worldwide excess deaths were estimated at more than 22 million. The success of China’s Zero-COVID policy was unassailable. 

However, perceptible shifts in policy and official attitudes became demonstrable after the March 2022 Omicron surge that centered on the Shanghai metropolis. In particular, the campaign in the international bourgeois press calling for ending Zero-COVID assumed fever pitch and Chinese officials were under considerable global financial pressures to end their public health policy and resume normal commercial relations. By mid-November, health authorities had rapidly moved towards a mitigationist posture, then opened the floodgates altogether on December 7, 2022.

Last week, a new study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, Washington, published in JAMA Network, estimated that 1.87 million excess deaths occurred in China among those 30 years and older in the first two months after ending the Zero-COVID policy.

What distinguished this study from others was the review of empirical data and the use of Baidu, a commonly used Chinese internet search engine, to conduct syndromic surveillance, which can be used for early detection of outbreaks, to follow the size and spread of outbreaks, and monitor disease trends.

To obtain these estimates, the authors relied on published obituary data about deceased official employees at Peking University (PKU) and Tsinghua University (THU) in Beijing and Harbin Institute of Technology (HIT), in Heilongjiang province, from January 1, 2016 to January 31, 2023. They additionally conducted syndromic surveillance for the same period using unique queries in Baidu search engines for particular keywords such as funeral parlor, cremation, crematorium, and burial. 

As the authors wrote, “Analysis revealed a strong correlation between Baidu searches for mortality-related keywords and actual mortality burden. Using this correlation, the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang was extrapolated to the rest of China, and region-specific excess mortality was calculated by multiplying the proportional increase in mortality by the number of expected deaths.” 

Not surprisingly, a disproportionate number of deaths occurred among men (76 percent) and the elderly over 85 (80 percent). The peak in deaths occurred in late December 2022. Every province, except Tibet, had seen a significant increase in excess deaths. The data also closely corroborates the modeling of the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China conducted by the School of Public at Fudan University, Shanghai, in July 2022, which  anticipated approximately 1.55 million deaths if Zero-COVID was lifted.

Line-up for mass COVID testing in Shanghai a year ago, before the abandonment of the Zero-COVID policy. [AP Photo/Chen Si, File]

A second report, published in the British Medical Journal on July 31, 2023, relied on cremation figures inadvertently released and then quickly withdrawn by Chinese authorities in Zhejiang province, but not before international researchers had uploaded the information. 

In the comparatively wealthy eastern province where almost every person that dies is cremated, the number of cremations for the first quarter of 2023 was over 170,000, while the first quarter figures for the previous two years were 99,000 (2022) and 90,000 (2021). This 72 percent rise in excess deaths, extrapolated across China, gives a figure of about 1.5 million deaths in this period, consistent with prediction models. This number is considered conservative as the Zhejiang province has a higher uptake of vaccines than the national average and a stronger healthcare system.

A third study, published in Nature Communications on July 1, 2023, modeled the dynamics of the surge to give a numerical figure on the number of COVID cases that were spreading across mainland China. Their analysis found that with full exit from Zero-COVID, the doubling time of infections was 1.6 days during the early and mid-December days, peaking in the last week of the month. This meant that approximately 95 percent or 1.33 billion people were infected in the two months after abandoning all public health measures. The study notes, assuming an infection fatality rate of 0.1 to 0.2 percent for Omicron, that would imply that somewhere between 1.3 million and 2.6 million COVID deaths occurred during December 2022/January 2023.

To understand the impact of abandoning Zero-COVID, it is helpful to review the early weeks of January 2020, when China moved to contain the outbreak that was quickly slipping away.

First public notice of a cluster of pneumonia caused by an unknown pathogen was reported on December 31, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei province, a month before the Chinese Lunar New Year (January 25, 2020). Soon after, on January 8, 2020, a novel coronavirus was identified as the etiological (causal) agent for the outbreak, which centered around the Huanan Seafood Market. Two weeks later, on January 22, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) acknowledged that human to human transmission was taking place.

By January 23, 2020, Chinese authorities prohibited all travel into and out of Wuhan city and the next day the whole of Hubei province. However, between January 11 and the lockdown, it was estimated that around 4.3 million people had traveled out of the city. Notably, the first recorded case of COVID outside China was in Thailand on January 13, 2020. 

Along with the massive public health efforts underway in Wuhan, China also raised its national public health response to the highest state of emergency. A week later, on January 30, 2020, the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). At that time there had been 7,818 confirmed cases worldwide, the vast majority in China, with only 82 cases reported in 18 other countries. 

The rapid establishment of emergency control measures across 342 cities, which included school closures, the isolation of suspected persons and quarantine of confirmed cases, banning of all public gatherings and entertainment venues, and the suspension of intracity public transport and intercity travel, resulted in daily cases peaking in all provinces outside of Hubei by January 31, 2020 (875 per day) and in Hubei and Wuhan city by February 4, 2020 (3,156 per day). 

By February 19, 2020, authorities estimated that there had been around 75,500 COVID cases. By late March, most COVID cases had been brought under control and on April 8, 2020, the 76-day lockdown on Wuhan was lifted, with the COVID death toll in the city kept under 5,000. Subsequent analysis of these efforts indicate that had such measures not been put into place, there would have been 744,000 COVID cases outside of Wuhan by the second half of February 2020 and countless more across the globe.

What is often forgotten is that the early efforts by China in the hectic weeks when the novel coronavirus began to spread across Wuhan city and Hubei province provided significant breathing room for the rest of the world to act and prepare their public health infrastructure. That the ruling elites globally did not heed these warnings to employ every measure to protect their populations was one of the most egregious and criminal actions imaginable. 

An international campaign to eradicate the virus would have had swift success and would have provided considerable experience in preparing the world for future pandemics. Instead, the world suffered enormous human losses, and the pandemic, having infected billions, was allowed to return to China in the form of a new and more virulent variant.

The Chinese Politburo succumbed to the demands of international capital and joined the rest of the world in following the policy of “forever COVID.” The fundamental issue at stake is that a nationally-based elimination strategy will always be unviable in the era of a truly globalized economy.

Sharp increase in coronavirus infections in Germany

Tamino Dreisam


The number of coronavirus cases in Germany has been rising continuously for about six weeks. For the last week, the RKI, Germany’s infectious disease agency, reported 4,000 coronavirus infections, double the number of a month ago.

While the figure is an indication of the sharp increase in the number of infections, it by no means reflects the extent of the true situation. Only laboratory confirmed cases are included in the total of 4,000 reported cases. Since all coronavirus test stations have been closed, the majority of people are testing themselves at home and no other serious monitoring of the pandemic is taking place. Therefore, the real pandemic situation can only be guessed at.

A woman walks past an abandoned coronavirus test center in Frankfurt, Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021. Numbers of coronavirus infections are rising again in Germany. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

“We have to assume that many people have just become infected with coronavirus and believe that they only have a cold,” warned epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb. He went on to say that the “number of undetected cases” was “very high,” and one “simply does not know the exact number of cases.”

Nicola Buhlinger-Göpfahrt, deputy chief of the General Practitioners’ Association, also explained: “Currently, doctors’ practices are increasingly detecting coronavirus cases. We therefore advise patients to also consider a possible COVID-19 infection in the event of an infection.”

Various factors confirm the current increase in coronavirus infections. According to the German government’s coronavirus pandemic radar, 70 percent of the sites recently reported an increasing viral load in wastewater. The number of doctor visits due to coronavirus disease increased by 76 percent in the previous week, and the number of hospitalizations due to severe coronavirus disease increased by 48 percent. The clearest indication, however, is the fact that the increase is a worldwide phenomenon.

Experts believe that the current increase in infections could be linked to the double cinema release of the box office hits “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.” Vaccine researcher Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Texas said on Twitter, “I don't want to paint everything in dark colours, but is anyone worried about a post-Barbie or post-Oppie COVID wave?” He called on everyone to wear a mask when visiting the cinema.

With the approach of autumn and winter, experts are warning of an even greater spread of the virus. This would coincide with the spread of other respiratory infections and could place a heavy burden on hospitals, general practitioners and nursing homes. The president of the Paediatric and Adolescent Physicians’ Association, Thomas Fischbach, is predicting a severe flu wave in Germany. As an indication of this, he refers to the rapid increase in the number of cases in Australia, which is coming to the end of its winter season.

The spread of two sub-variants is particularly important in the current situation: EG.5, also called “Eris,” and BA.2.86., nicknamed “Pirola.” Eris is an Omicron subvariant that is classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a “variant of interest,” the direct precursor of a “variant of concern.” According to the latest data, it accounts for around a quarter of all infections in Germany.

“We will certainly see an increase in cases of illness in Germany that would not have occurred without the variant,” Frankfurt virologist Martin Stürmer told Der Spiegel. The WHO warns that EG.5 is likely to cause more cases due to its growth advantage and its immune escape properties, and could become dominant in some countries.

Pirola is even more mutated than Eris. Compared to its closest relatives, it has just under 30 changes in the spike protein. Thus, it differs genetically from the first Omicron variant, BA.1, approximately as much as Omicron BA.1 differed from the original strain of the virus. According to the RKI, no case has yet been detected in Germany, but the fact that sequences from over 10 different countries are already available points to a worldwide spread.

It is assumed that Pirola has a significantly higher immune escape than previous variants. Isabella Eckerle, professor at the Centre for Novel Viral Diseases at the University Hospitals of Geneva, which is also the WHO Collaboration Centre for Epidemic and Pandemic Diseases, explains in an interview with Der Spiegel, “My assessment is: Yes, we will soon see an increase.”

She warns, “There’s something happening again, we’re seeing more cases in the ER, more hospitalizations. Only what exactly is not yet clear—the sequencing shows a colourful mix of different variants, including EG.5, but not so widespread in percentage terms... Neither Long COVID nor the vascular and neurological diseases caused by coronavirus are sufficiently understood so far. And I can’t see a stable state so far. I don’t think the virus is done with us yet.”

In her estimation, “One would no longer see these very serious infections as in the beginning, but instead a lot of infections, in all population groups.”

The “mixture of Sars-CoV-2, influenza, RSV and the seasonal respiratory viruses” could “very well burden the health system.” This would “lead to staff shortages, to bottlenecks in the clinic, in the practices, in the emergency department. And to people who get Long COVID.”

More and more facts about the consequences of Long COVID are coming to light. For example, a recent study shows that even two years after the actual infection from the virus, health complaints are still increased, even after “lighter” infections.

The study, reported by a research team in the journal Nature Medicine, evaluated the data of about 140,000 US veterans who tested positive for coronavirus in 2020. This data was compared to nearly six million veterans who did not have a known coronavirus infection.

In addition to the typically occurring Long COVID symptoms, such as fatigue and limited resilience, the study participants were examined for a further 80 secondary diseases. The result: coronavirus patients who had to be treated in hospital still had an increased risk for about two-thirds of the complaints examined two years after infection.

Compared to people without a known infection, they had a 50 percent higher risk of heart failure and were twice as likely to get Alzheimer's disease. And even in people with milder infections, about a third of the 80 complaints examined were more common. This includes a 13 percent higher risk of diabetes.

The scientists make the following shocking calculation: In the severely ill, about 640 healthy years of life were lost per thousand people. The less severely ill lost 80 healthy years of life. This is “an astronomically high number,” explained the head of the study, Ziyad Al-Aly. For cancer and heart disease, the DALY (disease-adjusted life years) value is about 50.