Hundreds of thousands abused in state and religious facilities in New Zealand

Tom Peters

In July, a long-running Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care released its shocking finding that between 1950 and 2019 up to 256,000 people in facilities including boarding schools, youth justice centres, foster care and psychiatric hospitals, were the victims of abuse and neglect. This is more than one in three of the estimated 655,000 people who were institutionalised during this period.

People arrive at Parliament in Wellington, New Zealand, on Wednesday, July 24, 2024, for the tabling of a wide-ranging independent inquiry into the abuse of children and vulnerable adults in care over the span of five decades wrote in a blistering final report. [AP Photo/Charlotte Graham-McLay]

The inquiry was launched by the previous Labour Party-led government in late 2018 following many years of demands and petitions for justice from survivors of abuse. Its final report, based on testimony from nearly 3,000 survivors, and more than a million documents, reveals criminal actions carried out on a vast scale by state agencies and churches, with devastating consequences. The number of victims equates to more than 5 percent of New Zealand’s current population of 5 million people.

The royal commissioners—Judge Carol Shaw, Dr Andrew Erueti and Paul Gibson—describe their findings as “a national disgrace.” They note: “These gross violations occurred at the same time as Aotearoa New Zealand was promoting itself, internationally and domestically, as a bastion of human rights and as a safe, fair country in which to grow up as a child in a loving family.”

In fact, the widespread, routine and prolonged abuse, in many cases amounting to torture, is an unanswerable indictment of capitalism. The brutal conditions documented by the royal commission are inseparable from the decades-long assault on workers’ wages and living standards and the gutting of social services, in order to transfer more wealth to big business and the rich. This has been accompanied by racist scapegoating of Māori and other minorities, and the promotion of militarism and “tough on crime” policies by successive Labour and National Party governments.

Hundreds of thousands of children from impoverished families, and people suffering mental and physical disabilities, were deemed unproductive and a burden on society, and effectively thrown on the scrap-heap.

The 3,000-page report details the appalling suffering endured by generations of young people, including:

●     The willful neglect of babies “left in cots with no hugs, physical interaction or other expressions of care.”

●     Racist abuse towards Māori and Pacific Island people, who “experienced harsher treatment across many settings.”

●     The use of “seclusion rooms” where vulnerable and young people could be held for weeks or even months, and “where they were at risk of being sexually and physically abused by staff.”

●     “Physical abuse was prevalent across all settings. In some cases, staff went to extremes to inflict as much pain as possible using weapons and electric shocks.” In addition, “Staff often pitched children and young people against each other, encouraging peer-on-peer abuse. This involved vicious attacks and humiliating rituals, which staff ignored.”

●     Sexual abuse, including rape, is described as “commonplace” in both state and religious facilities. It was used to “punish and intimidate,” and in some cases “abusers organised the sexual abuse of survivors by trafficking them to members of the public.”

●     Severe neglect of deaf and blind people, who were denied the ability to learn sign language and braille.

●     “Over-medicalisation, lobotomies, sterilisation, invasive genital examinations and experimental psychiatric treatments without informed consent.”

●     Hundreds of psychiatric patients and young people who died in care are believed to be buried in unmarked graves across the country.

Lifelong trauma was inflicted upon survivors, many of whom turned to drug abuse and some committed suicide. More than 30 percent of children and young people held in “social welfare institutions” went on to serve prison sentences later in life.

Many survivors faced ongoing difficulty establishing and maintaining relationships, inability to find a job, periods of homelessness, and increased likelihood of joining a criminal gang. In 1999, researcher Moana Jackson estimated that 85 percent of Mongrel Mob members and 88 percent of Black Power members (the country’s two biggest gangs) had been wards of the state.

Māori, who are one of the poorest sections of the working class, are over-represented among the victims. During the 1970s, several of the facilities looked at by the royal commission were 70 or 80 percent Māori, even though Māori were only about 12 percent of the population. As in Australia and Canada, the New Zealand state has disproportionately separated indigenous children from their families and housed them in punitive institutions.

Scores of institutions were named by the royal commission. The highest levels of physical abuse were reported at Wesleydale Boys’ Home and Ōwairaka Boys’ Home, two orphanages in Auckland, which no longer operate. The highest levels of sexual abuse were reported at Dilworth School in Auckland (Anglican), Marylands School in Christchurch (Catholic) “and at Catholic institutions in general.”

Lake Alice psychiatric facility, which closed in 1999, features prominently in the commission’s report. Its child and adolescent unit was notorious for abuse that occurred during the 1970s, including sexual abuse and electro-shock therapy as a form of punishment. The state has so far reached settlements with 202 Lake Alice survivors, averaging $70,000 each.

Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital building (2003) [Photo: Pawful]

No staff at Lake Alice were ever held accountable, however. Dr Selwyn Leeks, who was in charge of the child and adolescent unit, moved to Australia and continued working there until 2006; he died at the age of 92 in 2022. One former nurse, John Corkran, was charged but the High Court last year ordered a permanent stay on the prosecution due to the 91-year-old’s poor health.

For decades, the rampant abuse in such facilities was covered up. The commissioners’ summary says: “The State and leaders of faith-based institutions knew, or should have known, about the abuse and neglect that was happening. They failed not only in their duty to keep people in their care safe from harm, but they also failed to hold abusers to account.”

Within church-based organisations, “Religious beliefs were often used to justify the abuse and neglect, and to silence survivors. Hierarchical and opaque decision-making processes impeded scrutiny and making complaints.” When abusers were identified they were often shielded and “relocated and went on to continue abusing people in care elsewhere.”

The National Party-led government, the opposition Labour Party and the rest of the political establishment are now engaged in a cynical damage control exercise. In response to the royal commission’s report, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon declared: “I say to the survivors, the burden is no longer yours to carry alone. The state is now standing here beside you, accountable and ready to take action.”

The government has issued apologies and is promising “redress” for survivors, in line with the commissioners’ recommendations, although what form this will take remains unclear. The aim is to make a show of “learning the lessons” and deflect public attention from the appalling conditions that still exist for many oppressed youth.

While the royal commission’s report calls for police investigations and prosecutions for past crimes, it is clear that the political and religious leaders responsible for the systematic cruelty inflicted on generations of young people will not be held to account.

The abuse uncovered by the inquiry is not confined to the distant past. Approximately 56,000 cases of abuse and neglect occurred in the period from 1999‒2019. The commissioners note that “most of the factors that led or contributed to abuse and neglect during the Inquiry period continue to persist.”

Last year, more than 20 staff members of Oranga Tamariki, the state’s child welfare agency, were stood down after videos emerged of brutal “fight clubs” among teenage inmates at the Korowai Manaaki youth justice facility. Staff had encouraged boys to fight each other. Police also launched an investigation into “sexual misconduct” by some of the staff members.

Significantly, the royal commission’s report devotes more than 100 pages to a “boot camp” called Te Whakapakari, which operated on Great Barrier Island with state funding from 1988 until 2004, under successive Labour and National Party governments. The program emphasised “military style discipline, subservience, self‑sufficiency and hard physical labour.”

Allegations of abuse were first made about the program in 1989, and more were made during the 1990s, prompting internal investigations. Despite this, state agencies continued to refer young people to the program, most of them aged 14 to 17 and from families affected by violence, drug and alcohol problems.

Victims told the royal commission horrifying details of repeated beatings and rape committed by Whakapakari staff, who sometimes carried out these crimes at gunpoint. The Ministry of Social Development received 176 allegations of abuse from 40 different claimants regarding the boot camp. According to the commission’s report, police failed to properly investigate allegations of rape made against the program’s founder John da Silva, who died in 2021 aged 86.

The current National Party-led government is reintroducing military-style boot camps for teenage offenders: a pilot program began last month, around the same time that the royal commission released its report. During the 2023 election campaign, Prime Minister Luxon glorified military personnel as “our best leaders and mentors” and asserted that the new boot camps would turn young people’s lives around.

In fact, as the royal commission report warns, people with military backgrounds who worked with children “brought with them a culture of command and control, punishment, physical violence and verbal abuse.”

Luxon and his ministers have dismissed such concerns. As the country’s economic and social crisis deepens—with one in five children already living in poverty and one in 10 households relying on charity to survive—the government intends to deal with the fallout by significantly expanding the prison system and introducing harsher punishments for “violent youth offenders.”

The Labour Party has denounced the boot camps policy as “cruel,” despite having supported such programs in the past. Labour sought to compete with National on “law and order” in the 2023 election, promising to build two new juvenile prisons.

The promotion of boot camps also dovetails with the bipartisan policy to funnel working class youth into the armed forces as they prepare for war. The government is supporting the US imperialist-led militarisation of the Indo-Pacific region against China, and has deployed troops to Britain to train Ukrainian conscripts to fight against Russia. Wellington also backs the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza and has provided troops to assist with the US-led bombing of Yemen.

The militarisation of society, which is taking place in every country, is inevitably leading to the brutalisation of a new generation of young people.

Coda Story’s 2024/25 Bruno Reporting Fellowships

Application Deadline:

The application deadline for the Coda Story’s 2024/25 Bruno Reporting Fellowships is August 30, 2024.

Tell Me About The Coda Story’s 2024/25 Bruno Reporting Fellowships:

Applications are now open for the 2024-25 Bruno Reporting Fellowships to fund an enterprise feature relevant to Coda Story’s topics of interest. The 2024-25 Fellowships support two 10-month reporting projects that culminate in a notable story to be published on Coda’s website and editorial partners’ websites. 

Also, the Bruno Reporting Fellowship is designed to benefit early career journalists working in countries where journalism is under-resourced and the issues pertinent to Coda’s editorial concerns are under-scrutinized.

Which Fields are Eligible?

Journalism

Type:

Fellowship 

Who can Apply For The Coda Story’s 2024/25 Bruno Reporting Fellowships?

Additionally, applicants must meet the following eligibility criteria: 

• Open to early career journalists working in under-resourced countries.
• One fellowship is available for a Georgian reporter focusing on Coda’s collaboration with Stranger’s Guide magazine.
• One fellowship is available for a reporter of any nationality currently living in exile, focusing on the experience of exile in the digital age.
• Applicants must have excellent written and spoken English.
• Applicants must have a track record of writing reported pieces in English.

Required Documents:

Applicants are also to submit the following documents:

• A cover letter introducing yourself and telling us why you deserve the fellowship and what you would like to focus on. 
• A pitch for one long-form story that you would like to work on during your fellowship and why Coda is the right platform for it. 
• Resume.
• A brief cover letter indicating why the fellowship is right for you.
• Three published clips (links or PDFs are fine).

Which Countries Are Eligible?

All countries 

Where will the Award be Taken?

Online 

How Many Awards?

Not specified

What is the Benefit of the Award?

• Also, successful applicants will benefit the following:
  Stipend of $1000 a month for 10 months.
• Coverage of pre-approved expenses separately.
• Mentorship, guidance, and editorial support from Coda’s editors and staff.
• Opportunity to contribute ideas and produce regular reporting, including at least one long-form piece.
• Integration into Coda’s team and newsroom.

How Long Will the Award Last?

10 months 

How to Apply:

To apply for the fellowship, please send the documents listed above to bruno@codastory.com

Visit the Award Webpage for Details

Coral bleaching threatens 73 percent of world’s reefs

Mark Wilson

Record-breaking ocean temperatures have induced an ongoing mass bleaching event that puts almost three quarters of the world’s coral reefs at risk, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch reported last month.

Research associate Catherine Lachnit checks coral for signs of bleaching on Paradise Reef, Friday, Aug. 4, 2023, near Key Biscayne, Florida [AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee]

This is a further warning of the climate crisis, with the working class and poor across the world bearing the primary brunt of its consequences as global temperatures rise, including in the oceans.

The current global coral bleaching event (GCBE4) is the fourth on record, lasting since February 2023. The NOAA announced it officially in April 2024. The bleaching has affected coral reefs in every major ocean basin and almost 70 countries, including the US (particularly in Florida), Brazil, Panama, Costa Rica, Tuvalu, Fiji and Australia.

Coral bleaching occurs when the corals are no longer able to support vital symbiotic micro-organisms called zooxanthellae. These zooxanthellae algae provide critical nutrients for the coral, without which it cannot survive for long. When the surrounding water temperatures reach higher than the thermal limit allowing for that symbiotic relationship, the coral expels the algae and turns the organism white, a process known as bleaching.

The last such event—GCBE3—occurred from 2014 to 2017, and affected 65.7 percent of the world’s coral reefs. GCBE4 has, as of the latest figures from mid-July, placed 72.9 percent of coral reefs at risk of bleaching. This makes it the most widespread on record. It is well on its way to becoming the most severe, with NOAA having to introduce three additional new heat alert levels since GCBE3.

As one example, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia—the largest coral reef in the world—has been affected as part of GCBE4. In 2016, the WSWS warned of the implications of the devastating mass bleaching event of that year, which claimed almost 70 percent of the GBR’s shallow-water coral.

Since then, four mass bleaching events have wreaked havoc on the GBR’s health, with the latest event shaping up to be the most catastrophic of all. A recent paper published in Nature found that GBR ocean temperatures are higher than at any point in the past 400 years. It stated: “The existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic [human-induced] climate change is now realised.”

August 2023 marked an all-time high for global sea surface temperature (SST) at 20.98°C. Those temperatures have continued, with June 2024 measurements coming in at 20.85°C. On average, the Earth’s oceans have warmed around 0.88°C since 1850 levels.

This latest global catastrophe confirms years of warnings by scientists that coral reefs would be increasingly devastated by climate change-induced heat stress. For instance, a 2007 paper published in the journal Science stated that corals would become “increasingly rare on reef systems” due to the global warming expected throughout the 21st century. The authors warned: “Decisive action on global emissions is required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.”

Coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef [Photo by Jorge Láscar / CC BY 2.0]

Despite the role played by natural climate variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation in these high temperatures, there is no scientific doubt that the primary cause is greenhouse gas-induced climate change from the burning of fossil fuels.

The health of coral reef systems is vital to the ecological functioning of the planet as a whole. Coral reefs are home to 25 percent of all marine species. Moreover, approximately six million people around the world, largely in impoverished countries, depend on coral reef fisheries for their livelihoods.

These ecosystems also play a vital role in minimising other environmental impacts to millions of people around the world. Coral reefs absorb the worst impacts of storms and floodings in the world’s coastal zones. Globally, 100 to 200 million people living in these communities are at least partially protected from such hazards by coral reefs.

With warmer temperatures caused by climate change, bleaching events like this have become five times more frequent than they were four to five decades ago. This reduces the time between bleaching events in which corals could otherwise recover.

Dr Emma Camp, the leader of the Future Reefs Team at the University of Technology Sydney, explained: “If given a chance, coral are actually resilient and can recover. But as bleaching becomes more frequent and stronger in intensity, we’re really narrowing that window.”

These climate events, already a cause for great concern by the world’s scientists and the population at large, are occurring at approximately 1℃ of global warming. On the basis of totally inadequate government pledges, the world is on track for warming of 3℃ above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II report from 2022, which synthesised over 34,000 peer-reviewed publications, concluded that warming of over 2℃ is enough to threaten over 99 percent of coral reefs with severe damage.

Far from taking the appropriate action necessary for climate change mitigation, the ruling classes around the world have rejected any program that would save coral reefs. The Center for American Progress recently reviewed public statements from all sitting members of the US Congress. It found that 23 percent “publicly deny the scientific consensus of human-caused climate change.” Many, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, receive hundreds of thousands of dollars of donations from oil and gas companies.

But climate change cannot be attributed primarily to the short-sightedness and corruption of individual politicians, parties, or even governments at large. The root cause of climate change is the capitalist mode of production, which subordinates all social needs to private profit and divides the world into rival nation-states.

A study published earlier this year by global consulting firm ICF estimated that a person born in 2024 in the US could lose up to $1 million from the effects of climate change over their lifetime. Current and future generations of people would increasingly face more “difficult decisions about how to pay for food, housing, and other daily expenses.”

This average figure disguises the unequal cost inflicted on working people, who are most exposed to the impact.

Meanwhile, fossil fuel conglomerates such as BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil collectively rake in hundreds of billions of dollars in profits every year. Much of that wealth, beyond being hoarded by a small financial elite, is used to purchase stock buybacks and enrich their investors. Climate change is, in the final analysis, an issue that once again shows the class divide driving the threat to human civilisation.

Boeing Board of Directors onboards defense industry veteran as new CEO

Bryan Dyne

On August 8, Robert K. “Kelly” Ortberg was brought in as Boeing’s new president and CEO. Ortberg takes over the giant aircraft maker and military contractor amid dozens of near-disasters over the past eight months involving the company’s commercial planes and Starliner spacecraft and several investigations into the lack of quality control underlying these incidents.

Ortberg is the third head of the corporation in five years, replacing David Calhoun, who took over the corporation in January 2020 in the wake of the two 737 MAX 8 crashes that killed 346 men, women and children. Calhoun, who had been on Boeing’s board and is one of the many who bear responsibility for the the development and production of the deadly MAX 8, was elevated in an attempt to rehabilitate Boeing’s image after the crashes and, more importantly for the company’s stockholders, restore the airplane manufacturer’s profitability.

The selection of Ortberg by Boeing’s Board of Directors is another attempt to do the same, this time with someone not so mired in the criminality of the corporation’s upper management. Ortberg has also been brought in to strengthen Boeing’s ties to the US military-industrial complex.

The logo for Boeing appears on a screen above a trading post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, July 13, 2021. [AP Photo/Richard Drew]

Before Boeing, Ortberg was president and CEO of Rockwell Collins from 2013 to 2021. Rockwell Collins has its origins in shortwave radio manufacturing dating back to 1933. During World War II, its predecessor, Collins Radio Company, provided key radio and navigational equipment for the US military.

That work expanded in the post-war era, particularly during the race between the US and the Soviet Union in the 1960s to land a manned mission on the Moon. The company also moved into other fields, including flight control instruments and satellite voice transmissions.

Collins Radio Company was purchased by Rockwell International in 1973, merging into Rockwell Collins. Since then, the company has focused solely on avionics for commercial planes and the defense industry.

Under Ortberg’s leadership, Rockwell Collins was purchased by RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon Technologies) in 2018. It has since played a key role in the wars conducted by American imperialism, including the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine and the US-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Ortberg is tasked with reversing Boeing’s financial crisis. According to Business Today, Boeing has not had a profitable year since 2019 and has lost an estimated $33.3 billion over that time. The company lost $1.4 billion in the second quarter of 2024 alone and has lost a third of its value on the Dow Jones Industrial Average since January.

Boeing’s financial woes are in part due to numerous exposures of lax internal safety and quality control, first revealed by the MAX 8 crashes and highlighted again in January when a door panel blowout occurred on a MAX 9 jetliner shortly after takeoff. While no one died in that incident, it showed that Boeing management’s claims to have revitalized a “safety culture” within the company after the MAX 8 crashes were nothing but hot air.

Further blows came as numerous whistleblowers emerged in the wake of the January door blowout who directly contradicted Boeing’s claims that safety and quality were top priorities. They made clear that management’s actual priority was restoring the company’s profitability at any cost.

Among the most significant of the whistleblowers was John “Mitch” Barnett, who had opened a civil suit against Boeing, claiming that he was forced out of the company in 2017 after he raised multiple concerns about the safety of the 787 Dreamliner.

He had given two days of testimony in Charleston, South Carolina when he was found dead in his hotel parking lot the day he was slated to give his third day of testimony. While the county coroner declared that the death was a “self-inflicted gunshot wound,” news coverage afterward revealed that Barnett had told a family friend, “If anything happens to me, it’s not suicide.”

Two months later came the death of another whistleblower, Joshua Dean, also under circumstances that were never fully explained.

And in testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee, former Boeing quality engineer Sam Salehpour said that when he tried to raise safety issues internally, “I was told to ‘shut up,’ I was sidelined, I received physical threats.” He continued, “My boss said, ‘I would have killed someone who said what you said in a meeting.’”

More recently, a flight attendant who was on the MAX 9 during the blowout incident testified before the National Transportation Safety Board and asked, “How can we know this is not going to happen again and this is safe, because that should not have happened?”

Ortberg has also been brought in to suppress the growing militancy of Boeing workers. In July, 33,000 machinists who are in the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) voted 99.9 percent to strike when their contract expires on September 12.

A strike would further undermine Boeing’s profitability, delaying even more the delivery of thousands of airplane orders on which Boeing is already years behind.

The IAM leadership, including District 751 President Jon Holden, is already preparing to betray the aspirations of the workers and collaborate with the company. In a “Statement on Boeing’s New CEO,” Holden wrote that Ortberg’s appointment “is a step in the right direction,” and that he “needs the support of the Machinists Union more than ever.”

The statement went on to say, “We want to be an integral part of Boeing’s vision for the future.” In other words, the IAM bureaucrats are ready and willing to suppress strike activity by the rank and file as long as they get their cut.

But Boeing machinists are in an immensely powerful position to win their demands, including for a sharp rise in pay and the restoration of hundreds of safety and quality positions that have been eliminated over the past several years.

A strike would also be a significant blow against the Biden administration and the US war machine, especially given Ortberg’s defense background. Along with RTX, Boeing is a major contractor for the Department of Defense and is integral to American imperialism’s war plans against Russia and China, along with the ongoing US-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza. A strike at Boeing would significantly hinder these murderous campaigns.

Strengthening recessionary trends in global economy

Nick Beams

In the wake of last week’s turmoil on global stock markets, which saw the Tokyo market experience its biggest one-day fall since the October 1987 stock market crash before rebounding, attention is increasingly being directed to the strengthening recessionary trends in the world economy.

They are apparent in the top four economies: the US, China, Japan and Germany.

Pedestrians walk past the New York Stock Exchange building on March 25, 2024, in New York [AP Photo/Frank Franklin II]

A widely followed and generally reliable report on investor sentiment said confidence had collapsed in both Germany and in the eurozone.

As the Financial Times reported, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone fell 25.8 points to 17.9 in its biggest decline since the start of the pandemic. In Germany, the index fell by 22.6 points, a decline three times larger than suggested by a poll of economists, and the lowest level since the start of the year.

The comments on the numbers reported by the FT were all downbeat. ZEW president Achim Wambach said: “The economic outlook for Germany is breaking down.” He said there was “high uncertainty” caused by what he claimed was an “ambiguous” monetary policy on the part of the European Central Bank, poor business data in the US and concerns over the prospect of military conflict in the Middle East.

The senior economist at Oxford Economics, Alexander Valentin, said the weakening growth outlook and worsening investor confidence provided arguments for the ECB to cut rates at its next meeting in September and again by the end of the year.

Other comments were in a similar vein. The senior economist at Deutsche Bank, Robin Winkler, said the optimism over a recovery in the German economy that had been present in the spring had now “completely evaporated.” Germany’s GDP in the second quarter contracted by 0.1 percent.

A note to clients from T Rowe Price said there was a “risk that GDP growth in Germany shrinks this year” and that it could become trapped in a “self-fulfilling loop where weaker expectations lead to weaker growth.”

In China, GDP growth for the second quarter was 4.7 percent, a significant fall from growth of 5.3 percent in the first. The slowdown in the economy has set off an unusual battle between the country’s banks and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank.

Faced with worsening economic prospects, banks have been investing money in the bond market, sending down yields to as low as 2.1 percent on 10-year bonds. (The yield on bonds falls as demand for them increases and the price goes up.)

For several months, the PBoC has been discouraging these moves and last week took the step of naming and shaming a group of four rural banks, saying they were “manipulating” bond prices in the secondary market.

The concern of the authorities, not without some justification, is that a situation could arise as took place in the US in March 2023. Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks were confronted with major losses on their holdings of Treasury debt when interest rates rose, and they went under.

While there are concerns over financial stability, political considerations are also playing their part. The PBoC campaign is aimed at trying to head off other conclusions being drawn—that the turn to bonds and the fall in yields is an indication of concern about the direction of the economy and the need for a change of course in official policy.

As a comment in the FT this week put it, “China’s bond market is now flashing urgent deflationary warning signs” and “policymakers would do well to take heed.”

There has been some acknowledgement by President Xi Jinping of the need to increase effective demand and boost consumption spending, following a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China earlier this month. And the PBoC has recently referred to “insufficient effective [domestic] measures.” But there is no sign of significant action.

The thrust of the government’s economic policy remains focused on the longer-term objective of investment in “high quality productive forces.” But this policy, which is aimed at increasing exports of high-tech goods, does nothing to address the domestic situation. It is characterised by the problems resulting from the debt problems in the property market and falling consumer confidence, leading to calls for action by central authorities.

In a sign of the downturn in the Chinese economy, especially in construction, the steelmaker Baowu has warned of a “long and harsh winter” ahead for the industry, under conditions where the benchmark price for iron ore has already fallen 30 percent so far this year.

After something of an upturn in 2023, the Japanese economy appears to be sliding back into a cycle of low growth. In the first quarter, it contracted at an annualised rate of 2.9 percent on the back of falling consumption spending , which recorded a decline for four consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 2009, and a decline in exports.

The forecast for the second quarter is for a rebound with expectations that it will be 2.1 percent on an annualised basis, according to a Reuters poll. But there are doubts about how long this might continue. The outlook is clouded because of the decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to lift interest rates, thereby increasing the value of the yen, which could hit exports. The prospect for exports is also clouded by the signs of a slowdown, and possibly a recession, in the US economy.

The market turmoil of last week underscores the fragility of the financial system based on a mountain of debt, above all in the US.

The sell-off was sparked by a lower-than-expected US jobs report number and the interest rate decision of the BoJ. The resultant rise in the value of the yen led to the unwinding of so-called carry trades, in which cheap Japanese money was used to finance investments in US financial markets.

As the Wall Street Journal noted, the turmoil was a “deleveraging” episode in which investors using borrowed money had to sell assets in one area of the market to cover losses in another. It reported that according to Goldman Sachs, “July was one of the largest deleveraging episodes for hedge-fund clients” in the past 10 years.

In recent days, Fed officials have been taking to the airwaves to offer reassurances that the economy is not moving into a recession. But facts on the ground are telling a different story. Consumer confidence is down, and lower-paid workers are living off their credit cards in the face of steep price rises in basic necessities, well in excess of official inflation numbers. Total credit card debt has hit a record of $1.14 trillion.

And a jobs massacre has begun with thousands of layoffs in high-tech in past months and sackings in the auto industry. Since the start of the year, more than 8,000 jobs have been axed by the “Big Three” auto manufacturers in the US. Now it has been announced that 2,450 workers will be laid off at Stellantis’ Warren Truck plant, threatening the complete shutdown of the factory.

Paramount has announced the closure of its TV studios and the firing of 15 percent of its workforce.

Meanwhile Wall Street, ever anxious to get its hands on cheaper money to sustain the debt mountain, has been calling for the Federal Reserve to start cutting its rate at its next meeting in September by at least 25 basis points (0.25 percent) and possibly by 50, followed by more cuts before the end of the year.

With signs of financial instability increasing and growing indications of recession, all eyes will be on the remarks of Fed chair Jerome Powell to the annual conclave of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this month.

Macron agrees to Pacific leaders’ fact-finding mission to New Caledonia

John Braddock

After several weeks of delay, French President Emmanuel Macron has given the go-ahead for a high-level Pacific fact-finding mission to New Caledonia. It was requested by leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), ostensibly to gather information about the ongoing social and political turmoil in the French colony.

Smoke rises during protests in Noumea, New Caledonia, Wednesday May 15, 2024. [AP Photo/Nicolas Job]

The confirmation came as Forum foreign ministers met last week in Suva, Fiji, ahead of the 53rd PIF Leaders Summit on Tonga at the end of August. The PIF secretariat wrote to Macron last month, requesting a visit by a Forum Ministerial Committee to Nouméa to gather information “from all sides” involved in the crisis.

The 18-member PIF is the Pacific’s major regional leadership body. The delegation to Nouméa will comprise PIF chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Menele.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters indicated prior to the announcement from Paris that New Zealand wished to “play a role,” adding that he expects “over time there will be more than one delegation” sent to New Caledonia.

France’s ambassador to the Pacific, Véronique Roger-Lacan, told RNZ Pacific on Friday that Paris “is welcoming” the fact-finding mission which will report back to the PIF summit. She had previously emphasised that while France “is always open for dialogue,” New Caledonia was French territory and “it is the State which decides on who enters the French territory and when and how.”

Violent unrest broke out nearly three months ago, driven largely by alienated Kanak youth, after the French parliament passed a constitutional amendment to boost voter eligibility in New Caledonia’s local elections which pro-independence groups declared would further marginalise the indigenous Kanaks.

Amid an ongoing 10 p.m.‒5 a.m. nationwide curfew, 3,700 French security forces are still working on removing roadblocks, mainly in the capital Nouméa and outskirts. The death toll stands at ten: eight civilians and two gendarmes. More than 800 buildings and businesses are estimated to have been looted and burnt down by rioters. Several pro-independence leaders charged with instigating civil unrest remain in jail in mainland France.

France’s High Commissioner Louis Le Franc last week provocatively issued medals to soldiers of the elite GIGN paramilitary force which has been involved in armed clashes with protestors, including the killing of a prominent Kanak rebel on 10 July. The GIGN is notorious for its role in the 1988 massacre of 21 Kanaks who were holding a group of hostages on the island of Ouvéa during civil war conditions.

Roger-Lacan dismissed widespread criticism over France’s crackdown, slamming Pacific media for not being “very balanced with their reports.” “We repeat the fact that these riots were conducted by a handful of people who contest democratic, transparent and fair processes, and that the French state has restored security, and is rebuilding and organising the reconstruction [of New Caledonia],” she insisted.

PIF Chair Brown said the task of the high-level “monitoring and dialogue” mission is “to try to reduce the incidence of violence” and to appeal for talks between the different sides.

The various Pacific governments, as well as Australia and New Zealand, are not concerned about the brutal conditions imposed on New Caledonia’s oppressed masses. They are undoubtedly nervous, however, that if France cannot bring the situation under control, the unrest in New Caledonia could be a spark for similar protests and riots across the impoverished region, where living standards are being ground down by inflation.

New Caledonia and French Polynesia were admitted as members of the PIF in 2016, after lobbying by Paris since 2003 to expand its regional influence. Membership was previously restricted to the nominally independent nations. The move was endorsed by the regional imperialist powers Australia and New Zealand amid escalating geo-strategic rivalries fueled by the US-led preparations for war with China.

Macron’s strategy in New Caledonia has been to enforce “Republican order” with the intense police-military crackdown, while demanding the official pro-independence leadership play its part in suppressing the rebellion. Lifting a 12-day state of emergency on May 28, Macron demanded the leaders of the four-party FLNKS (Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste) use their influence to get blockades around the main island dismantled.

Despite the massive security operation and pressure wielded by Macron, the rebellion has still not been brought under control. The FLNKS admitted that it failed to persuade protesters to remove roadblocks because the rebels were not convinced Macron would drop the electoral reform.

The FLNKS is supporting calls for outside intervention to help control the uprising. As a component of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG), which includes Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, it was party to a statement calling for a joint United Nations-MSG mission to assess the political situation and “propose solutions.”

Supported by PIF Chair Brown, the MSG called on France to undertake another referendum on independence due to their “dissatisfaction” with the third referendum in 2021, which they deemed a “forceful and unilateral decision by the French State.” That poll saw a 96 percent vote to remain with France after it was boycotted by the independence movement.

While Macron manoeuvres to form a right-wing government in France in defiance of the results of last month’s snap election, talks between New Caledonia’s pro- and anti-independence parties are set to resume in September. Four New Caledonian MPs, two from each side, met with Macron in Paris late last month calling for “political dialogue” to resume urgently.

RNZ Pacific reported that the group emerged from the meeting with “an apparent show of unity.” Newly elected pro-independence representative Emmanuel Tjibaou of Union Calédonienne, a constituent of the FLNKS, declared “we have to break the institutional impasse, the deadlock that has occurred over the crisis that affects everyone, whether we are pro- or anti-independence.” Loyalist Georges Naturelle (Rally-UMP, affiliated with Les Républicains in France) declared the meeting had “presented a model for the resumption of dialogue in Nouméa.” The “priority of priorities,” he declared, “is to return to order.”

The factions of the colony’s ruling elite are preparing to come together to reach a settlement, in collaboration with the French state, to impose their class solution to the crisis. The official Kanak movement has been exposed by the uprising that erupted from below and outside their control. The riots have much deeper roots than unresolved frustrations over independence, coming at a time of escalating economic turmoil and social discontent. Unemployment among youth is 26 percent, mainly affecting young Kanaks.

The crisis is set to intensify. The major nickel plant Koniambo (KNS) recently announced the impending sacking of 1,200 workers after failing to find a buyer. Operations were idled following an announcement in February that its financier, Anglo-Swiss Glencore, wanted out. Some 600 contractors relying on the plant have already lost their jobs.

KNS is jointly owned by Glencore (49 percent) and New Caledonia’s Northern Province (51 percent). In a decade of operation it has never made a profit, accumulating a huge €13.5 billion of debt. The plant was established in a 1997 deal brokered by France which, along with the 1998 Nouméa Accord, created a narrow, pro-capitalist political and business elite within the Kanak community.

Now, as global nickel prices tumble, New Caledonia’s crucial nickel mining and smelting industry is in turmoil, faced with increasing competition from emerging producers such as Indonesia and China which are manufacturing much cheaper nickel. Two other plants, Prony Resources and Société le Nickel, are facing similar crises, threatening the jobs of a quarter of the territory’s workforce.

Miners, processing workers, truck drivers, airport workers and others have repeatedly engaged in militant struggles to defend jobs and conditions. This has brought them into conflict with the entire ruling elite, including the privileged layer represented by the FLNKS. In April clashes erupted between security forces and protesters over the future of the plant. These could well erupt again.

Over 1.3 million Americans are now being infected with COVID-19 each day

Bill Shaw

On Monday, the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) released its updated model, estimating that over 1.3 million Americans are now being infected with COVID-19 each day as the summer surge deepens. At present, 1 in 38 Americans are infected with COVID-19, as documented extensively in a new report from PMC.

The Collaborative, which is run by Michael Hoerger, Ph.D. at Tulane University in New Orleans, just released version 2.0 of its PMC COVID-19 forecasting model. It is one of the most sophisticated models available, designed to inform the public about the current state of the pandemic, while encouraging people to take appropriate precautions to protect themselves.

Current levels of transmission exceed those seen during 91 percent of the pandemic to date and are the highest ever seen in mid-August during the entire pandemic. This deepening summer wave is the 9th wave of the pandemic in the US and is taking place amid a complete cover-up by the Biden administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the corporate media, all of whom have conspired to impose the homicidal “forever COVID” policy of unending mass infection, death and debilitation with Long COVID.

Graph of year-over-year transmission shows we have likely never had such high COVID transmission in mid-August. [Photo by Dr. Mike Hoerger (@michael_hoerger on Twitter/X)]

The PMC report includes a map of transmission levels by US state, a modified version of a map published by the CDC based on data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS). While the CDC map uses pastel colors to try to portray the deluge of infections as harmless, the PMC report follows best practices in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) design, according to which they note “consensus is to use colors like red to indicate something is ‘hotter’ or greater cause for concern.”

CDC COVID-19 Heat Map, with higher transmission shown with deeper red [Photo by Dr. Mike Hoerger]

The deepening summer surge coincides with the emergence of the new viral variant KP.3.1.1, which has rapidly become dominant since first emerging in early June as a descendent of the KP.3 variant.

The confluence of the summer surge and a new viral variant, to which the population has less immunity, is highly dangerous. Combined with the timing of mid-August when children are beginning to return to schools and colleges, it raises the potential for a perfect storm to send viral transmissions even higher in the Fall. Commenting on this, the report notes:

This is the highest level of transmission at the time of schools starting, so expect K-12 schools and universities to be hotbeds for COVID outbreaks unless they are using multilayered mitigation like indoor air quality that meets ASHRAE standard 241 (if they have never heard of this or cannot explain how they are meeting the standard, they likely are not meeting the standard), surveillance testing, free on-demand testing, and universal masking.

In fact, the reopening of schools with zero mitigations in place makes it challenging for PMC model to predict the peak of the current summer surge. The report notes, “we are likely near the peak of the wave, unless the unprecedented context of back-to-school with no emphasis on mitigation pushes transmission higher in ways the model cannot predict statistically.”

Significantly, the PMC model estimates that Americans have now had COVID-19 on average 3.3 times. According to one study, people who self-report having had 3 infections have a 40 percent chance of developing Long COVID. The PMC model estimates 468,000 to 1,870,000 new cases of Long COVID per week at current transmission levels, an astounding level of new disability being created on a weekly basis.

This estimate comes on the heels of the latest groundbreaking study led by Dr. Al-Aly, which estimated that by the end of last year over 400 million people were suffering from Long COVID globally.

A key strength of the new version of the PMC model is that it incorporates three sources of data. The first is the NWSS data from the CDC. The second is BioBot wastewater data that used to be funded by the CDC, which has increasingly been less publicly available. The third source of data is the “true case” data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which correlated wastewater levels with daily new cases and was regularly updated through April 1, 2023.

Because the three sources of data overlapped for parts of the pandemic, it was possible for the Collaborative to build a statistical model that continues to estimate current case and transmission levels from the wastewater surveillance data. The two wastewater data sources are both used in the model, which enables the model to provide much more reliable estimates.

Overall, the Collaborative has provided a highly valuable service in creating a robust model and informing the public about surging COVID-19 levels in the United States. The fact that the CDC itself is not providing this type of modeling and analysis, as any true public health agency would, is an indictment of the capitalist system which instead has sought to keep the public in the dark.

Indeed, neither the Twitter account of the CDC nor its director, Mandy Cohen, has issued any warnings about the summer COVID surge. Nor have they urged the public to take precautions to avoid infection and reinfection, such as masks, air purification and avoiding crowds.

Several aspects of the PMC model emphasize the extent to which the ruling class has eviscerated public health protections. First, the shutting down of surveillance data has required the Collaborative to be creative in stitching together three different sources of data, which have been active at different times in the pandemic. In particular, the shutting down of the “true case” data is a complete violation of public health science and practice. Basic case reporting and surveillance is fundamental to the response to a deadly and debilitating virus.

Second, the deliberate use of “welcoming” and “cool” colors in COVID-19 maps by the CDC serve to downplay the danger to the public of current transmission levels. The Collaborative’s red-shifted map paints a much more accurate picture of just how high transmission—and therefore the danger—is.

Third, the PMC model has only begun to be able to provide regional estimates of transmission levels within the United States. The Collaborative hopes to increase the robustness of its regional estimates in future versions of its PMC model, but the difficulty in doing so is again due to the systematic shutting down of case reporting and detection at the local, state and national levels by public health agencies.

The ongoing coverup of the pandemic and its true dangers is a social crime committed by the capitalist ruling class. They continue to subordinate the public’s health to private profit, no matter the immediate and long-term consequences to the public’s health. Their “let it rip” and “forever COVID” policies continue to generate mass death and disability.