Japan will hold an election next Sunday for half of the 248 seats in the upper house of the Diet, or parliament. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-led coalition is currently projected to lose its majority, which could dramatically alter Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s right-wing government.
The LDP currently holds 113 seats in the upper house alongside the 27 held by its junior partner Komeito. The opposition bloc led by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) holds 91 seats. Nine seats are considered unaffiliated and the remaining seats are vacant. Representatives in the upper house, or House of Councillors, serve six-year terms with half of the seats up for election every three years.
While the upper house does not select the prime minister, a bad election result will increase pressure on Ishiba’s government. It could potentially lead to a shake-up in the coalition in order to pass legislation or even Ishiba’s resignation. The LDP ruling coalition lost its majority in the lower house for only the third time since World War II following the general election in October 2024.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [AP Photo/David Mareuil]
Hanging over the election is the growing danger of a war with China instigated by US imperialism. Last weekend, the Financial Times reported that Washington has been demanding allies Japan and Australia to make clear that they would join the US in war against China over Taiwan.
These plans, which Tokyo backs, are far advanced as indicated in the Defense Ministry’s annual white paper released on Tuesday. The report branded China “an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge,” adding that the world is entering a “new era of crisis,” the biggest “since the end of World War II.”
The Trump administration has demanded Japan, along with allies like South Korea, to raise military spending to 5 percent of GDP. The Japanese government is currently in the process of doubling military spending to 2 percent by 2027.
Sanseito lacks broad support, polling only 5.9 percent in the recent NHK poll. The establishment press, however, has given it widespread coverage while giving credence to its xenophobic pronouncements, with articles linking social problems and “crimes” to foreigners who account for just 3 percent of the population.
Ishiba has also given credence to Sanseito’s unsubstantiated allegations by announcing on Tuesday that his government would launch a “control tower” body to address supposed “foreign crime.”
The so-called progressive CDP offers no alternative to Ishiba and the LDP. While it accepts Japan’s remilitarization, it quibbles over parliamentary procedure to give the appearance that it represents an anti-war faction. On the economy and social crisis, the CDP offers little more than limited promises that it has no intention or ability of keeping.
The Democrats came to power for the first and only time in 2009 with a large majority in the lower house. They quickly reneged on their election pledges, earning widespread scorn, which enabled the LDP to sweep back into power in 2012. The Democrats have never recovered from the debacle.
The CDP and its allies including the Stalinist Japanese Communist Party (JCP) meekly call for a “multicultural” society. However, they have done nothing to oppose the growth of xenophobia in Japanese politics as they are mired in nationalism themselves.
As for the JCP, it is completely integrated into the political establishment. Any socialistic phrase-mongering is limited to advocating minor social reforms under capitalism through parliament. Its overriding purpose in running for office is to shore up support for the Democrats.
More than five years after its initial emergence, COVID-19 continues to evolve, with the World Health Organization (WHO) recently designating XFG, nicknamed “Stratus,” as a new variant under monitoring in late June 2025. XFG, which is rapidly outpacing its predecessor, Nimbus, is a recombinant Omicron subvariant that has been found in increasing proportions globally, particularly in India, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Despite its spread, the WHO currently assesses the additional public health risk posed by XFG as low at the global level, with existing COVID-19 vaccines expected to remain effective against symptomatic and severe disease. However, this ongoing viral evolution and transmission occurs amidst a devastating crisis in US public health, driven by sweeping policy shifts and budget cuts.
Artist’s conception of the spike proteins that allow SARS-CoV-2 to invade human cells. [Photo by Emanresucamit / CC BY-SA 4.0]
With respect to recent scientific analysis on XFG, in a Lancet Correspondence, Caiwan Guo and colleagues from Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center (BIOPIC) at Peking University explained that XFG is a recombinant variant, meaning it emerged from two existing subvariants, LF.7 and LP.8.1.2, sharing genetic material from both. It has four important mutations in its spike protein, which is the part of the virus that helps it attach to human cells.
Some of these mutations are thought to help it evade certain antibodies, meaning our existing immune protection from past infections or vaccinations might not work as well. Early lab studies suggest XFG has a nearly two-fold reduction in neutralization compared to LP.8.1.1, indicating strong immune evasion. However, its ability to attach to human cells (ACE2 engagement efficiency) is relatively low, which might require additional changes for it to spread widely and consistently.
It was first detected on January 27, 2025. By June 22, 2025, it accounted for 22.7 percent of globally available SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 38 countries, a significant increase from 7.4 percent four weeks prior. It presently accounts for at least 30 percent of all SARS-CoV-2 variants in the US.
The only accurate and comprehensive review of the state of the pandemic in the US and internationally remains the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC), run by Dr. Mike Hoerger at Tulane University. This underscores the deep crisis of public health, as previously checked diseases like measles have recently resurfaced as a threat to American population.
According to their latest forecast, as of its report on July 14, 2025, the PMC model estimates approximately 2.3 million new infections per week in the U.S. This rate is forecasted to increase, potentially reaching 500,000 daily infections around July 30 (or 3.5 million a week, an increase of more than 50 percent).
While earlier estimates based on reported test cases suggested a much lower figure of around 50,000 new infections per day, updated analysis using wastewater data indicates a significantly higher range of 300,000 to 600,000 new daily infections, translating to 9 million to 18 million infections per month in the US.
Marty Makary (left), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (center) and Jay Bhattacharya (right) announcing restricted access to anti-COVID vaccines in video posted on X/Twitter [Photo: HHS]
Wastewater surveillance is now the most reliable population-level tool for assessing true infection rates, as many infections go unrecorded due to reduced testing and reporting. Extrapolating these U.S. wastewater-based rates to the global population, an estimated 216 million to 432 million people worldwide may be newly infected with SARS-CoV-2 each month as of mid-2025. This global extrapolation is considered reasonable, given the comparable wastewater surveillance trends observed in other developed nations like Germany and Australia.
With respect to excess death rates, PMC estimate that the U.S. is currently experiencing 800 to 1,300 excess deaths per week attributable to COVID-19. If this pace continues, it will amount to approximately 50,000 excess deaths this year, comparable to the worst flu seasons, but primarily affecting high-risk populations such as the elderly and immunocompromised.
The comparison of Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) between COVID and flu finds that COVID remains much more lethal than flu. (IFR measures the proportion of deaths among all infected individuals, including those who are asymptomatic or undiagnosed.)
For seasonal influenza, typical IFR estimates are very low, hovering around 0.03 to 0.04 percent in population studies. For COVID-19, overall global IFR estimates are significantly higher, ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 percent. COVID-19’s IFR is thus roughly 10 times higher than that of seasonal influenza across all age groups on average.
Long COVID, also known as Post-COVID Condition, is a syndrome characterized by persistent or late-onset symptoms after the acute infection. It includes a wide range of issues such as fatigue, cognitive impairment (“brain fog”), shortness of breath, chronic pain and organ dysfunction. According to the WHO, there are over 200 symptoms across virtually every organ system have been reported in patients suffering from this debilitating disease.
Estimates suggest that roughly five to 10 percent of all infections lead to lingering symptoms that can last many months if not years. Although WHO indicates that the risk of developing Long COVID appears to be somewhat lower with Omicron variants and in vaccinated individuals, it remains a concern as immunity continues to wane, new immune evading variants continue unabated, and amid abysmal vaccination rates.
Notably, according to the US CDC, approximately 60 million people received a booster in the US in the last 12 months. In Europe, approximately 15.5 million total boosters were given between August 2024 and March 2025.
Yet, with billions infected globally, even a single-digit percentage of Long COVID incidence translates to a vast number: tens of millions globally have experienced Long COVID. While approximately 85 percent of people with Long COVID are estimated to recover by one year, about 15 percent continue to experience symptoms for a longer time.
The long-term picture regarding COVID-19’s health consequences is grim. Large cohort studies globally have revealed elevated rates of heart attacks, strokes, blood clots, diabetes onset, kidney disease, and mental health disorders in the months and years following infection.
This precarious situation is intensified by recent governmental actions, notably the implementation of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which is rapidly laying waste to crucial public health infrastructure and research funding. The United States is woefully unprepared for the next pandemic, let alone the continuing COVID wave that is regaining momentum.
Following a Supreme Court ruling on July 8, 2025 that lifted an injunction, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) proceeded with the layoff of thousands of employees, representing about 25 percent of its workforce, impacting agencies like the CDC and FDA.
Concurrently, the Fiscal Year 2026 budget proposal outlines drastic cuts to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). NIH faces an almost 40 percent budget reduction, forcing the consolidation of its 27 institutes into eight and eliminating funding for critical research areas and training programs. Similarly, the CDC’s budget is proposed to be slashed by nearly half, undermining its ability to fund state and local health departments and impacting chronic disease, HIV and injury prevention programs.
These moves are occurring alongside the Trump administration’s efforts to declare the pandemic “finished” and promote the repeatedly disproven lab-leak theory for COVID-19’s origin, as part of the preparation of public opinion for war with China.
Furthermore, the international actions of the Trump administration threaten the complete collapse of the global network of health agencies. The Trump administration’s decisions to defund the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and withdraw the United States from the WHO represent a profound and deliberate dismantling of global health infrastructure.
The appointment of figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) further politicizes public health, treating vaccines and research as “weapons for US national security policy” and fostering anti-China campaigns that include the “witch-hunting” of scientists. Collectively, these actions demonstrate a profound abandonment of global responsibility by the United States, signifying a broader collapse of the international community’s capacity to address global disease threats, leaving millions without access to critical healthcare, food and clean water, and the world more vulnerable to future pandemics.
Amid a sharp downturn gripping the New Zealand economy and escalating attacks by the far-right National Party-led government on the jobs and living standards of the working class, a bitter social crisis is unfolding.
Growing discontent was highlighted last week with Statistics NZ revealing that a net 30,000 citizens quit New Zealand last year to move to Australia, the largest single year exodus since 2012. Tens of thousands more departed for other countries. In April and May 2025, more people left permanently than entered.
The economy has fallen back into recessionary territory over the last three months. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was a meagre 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter on the back of a contraction of 1.1 percent over the full year. MacroBusiness in June described New Zealand as an “economic basket case.” The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key measure of forthcoming business activity, now ranks among the worst in the developed world.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon [Photo: Christopher Luxon Facebook]
The working class is bearing the brunt of the downturn with a sharp drop in per capita national income. One statistician, posting on X under the handle MusicalChairs, noted that “we are having a second winter of misery in the labour market. The year-on-year trend is basically stuck at 100 job losses per day. It’s grim out there.”
In the first quarter of 2025, unemployment hit 5.1 percent, up from 3.4 percent in 2023, with the number of people in full-time jobs falling by 45,000 in the three months. Jobseeker Support claims for unemployed 18–24-year-olds have increased by 41 percent over two years. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook predicts NZ will have the highest rate of joblessness of all Asia-Pacific countries until 2027, surpassing COVID-19 pandemic peaks.
The percentage of people unemployed for between 6 months to 1year was 12.4 percent in 2023. It is now 23.9 percent, nearly double. Underemployment has risen by 26 percent in two years. Over a fifth of people working part-time, about 127,000, are struggling to find more work, despite looking for as long as five years in some cases.
Wages have taken a sharp hit. According to the Labour Cost Index 48 percent of workers got a pay rise below inflation (i.e. less than 2 percent) last year. Annual increases in weekly earnings to June were a meagre $22 for workers in the lowest quartile, $42 in the median quartile and $69 in the upper quartile.
The government is deliberately driving down wages for the lowest paid. The minimum wage increased in April by just 35 cents per hour to $23.50, a 1.5 percent increase, while inflation is presently running at 2.5 percent. In a brutal move, Finance Minister Nicola Willis expunged a requirement that government contractors pay at least the “Living Wage,” currently $28.95 per hour, for low-paid cleaning, catering and security guard services.
Living costs are soaring. A study by the Australian Edith Cowan University last year compared prices of a basket of supermarket staples across four countries including NZ, Australia, Ireland and the UK. New Zealand had by far the most expensive groceries, ranging from $A342 to $A409, while Australia’s were second at between $A324 and $A332. Bills for rates, insurance, energy and transport have all skyrocketed.
Household savings dropped by $392 million to negative $1.6 billion in the March 2025 quarter, as household spending increased more than disposable incomes. In a sign of growing desperation, record numbers of workers are making early withdrawals from their KiwiSaver retirement savings. In May, a monthly high of 9,420 people made withdrawals totaling $234,192,710 because of financial hardship, according to Inland Revenue.
Housing is an acute issue. A recent television episode of “The Hui,” a Māori-orientated journalism program, detailed an explosion of homelessness, not only in traditional working-class areas such as Rotorua and south Auckland, but in the more affluent suburbs of Auckland’s North Shore.
Matarora Smith, who runs a breakfast program for about 60 homeless people in south Auckland, bluntly told “The Hui,” “One of the street whānau (family) have passed away in South Auckland—froze to death.”
Jan Rutledge, of De Paul House, which provides support services in north Auckland, had seen a noticeable increase in homelessness. “We had a family come to us with two kids, mum and dad. They were staying in Glenfield Mall’s car park,” she said, opposite the local Work and Income office. Rutledge said: “Now that we’ve got no-cause evictions, a landlord can just come in and say, ‘that’s it.’ We’re seeing quite a lot of that.”
Head of the Lifewise charity, Haehaetu Barrett, told “The Hui” that homelessness is a “national crisis.” The government has drastically reduced the number of families in emergency housing even as the demand for public rentals escalates. The public housing agency Kāinga Ora rejected 1,569 families’ applications for emergency accommodation in the first three months of 2025 alone.
As of May, 19,089 people were waiting for a Kāinga Ora state home. Almost half were Māori. On average, people were on the waitlist for 233 days.
Barrett denied recent allegations by Rotorua Mayor Tania Tapsell and Police Minister Mark Mitchell that rough sleeping was a “lifestyle choice” among homeless people who they alleged spent what little money they had on drugs.
Barrett noted that the closing of emergency motel accommodation, which began under the previous Labour government, is forcing more families out of secure shelter. The last of the motels in Rotorua will be shut down by the end of the year, which Barrett said was “way too quick.” She declared; “They move them, but to where? And what support is in place?”
Government promises to tackle the housing supply have come to nothing. In Wellington, Kāinga Ora is selling off two pieces of real estate it had pledged to turn into 280 homes. The agency has just 42 new units in the pipeline for the capital city, while the social housing register there exceeds 640 families.
Kāinga Ora announced that it will halt over 200 housing developments nationwide and sell a fifth of the vacant land it owns, to ensure its housing projects “make commercial sense.” In February, Housing Minister Chris Bishop unveiled a “turnaround plan” for the embattled agency. It included selling off valuable state properties in wealthy areas, purportedly to fund homes in working class suburbs. The scheme excludes state tenants from living in “desirable” suburbs while opening the door to privatisation.
According to the March 2025 Quarterly Economic Monitor from Infometrics, general rental affordability is worsening as tenants spend more of their household income on rent. Average rent as a percentage of household income is running at 22.1 percent, up from 21.9 percent a year ago and well above the average 10-year low of 20.2 percent.
Homeowners continue to suffer from high interest rates on their mortgages. On July 9 the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) “paused” its 11-month rate-cutting programme and held the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25 percent, down from 5.5 percent last August, declaring it needed “more clarity’ on inflation, the economy, and US trade policy.
The cost-of-living crisis confronting the working class is underpinned by a sharp escalation in social inequality. The country’s Rich List revealed last month that 119 individuals and families, including 18 billionaires, control a record $NZ102.1 billion, up from $95.55 billion in 2024 and equivalent to more than 40 percent of annual GDP. Their wealth derives almost entirely from parasitic activities such as financial investment and property speculation.
There is also a vast class divide among Māori. While ordinary Māori, who make up 18 percent of the population, remain among the most oppressed sections of the working class, tribal capitalist businesses are flourishing. In March, a report by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and Te Puni Kōkiri showed the “Māori economy” grew from $17 billion in 2018 to $32 billion in 2023. The powerful Tainui tribe, which settled land grievances with the government in 1995 for $170 million, now boasts a balance sheet of $1.9 billion.
Israel has intervened in the clashes between Druze groups and Bedouin tribes in the southern Syrian city of Sweida, striking the Syrian General Staff headquarters in Damascus on Wednesday.
These events highlight the falsity of claims that the regime change that took place in December 2024 with the support of the US and its allies, including Turkey, would bring democracy and peace to Syria, and point to the risk of a regional war.
Israeli soldiers stand next to an armored vehicle at the line that separates the Golan Heights from Syria, on December 9, 2024. [AP Photo/Matias Delacroix]
It is alleged that the clashes in Sweida began on July 13 with the kidnapping of a Druze merchant by Bedouins on the Damascus-Sweida highway. The city of Sweida, which is predominantly Druze, is controlled by Druze militias who refused to join the armed forces of the Al-Qaeda-rooted Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government, established after the overthrow of former Russian and Iranian-backed President Bashar al-Assad.
The new Damascus regime entered the city on Tuesday, after clashes broke out between Druze groups and Bedouin tribes. The Druze saw this as a violation of the agreement reached with the regime in May, and fighting broke out between HTS forces and Druze militias.
The number of people killed in armed clashes in Sweida is reported as exceeding 300. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which is funded by Washington and London, 69 Druze militiamen and 40 civilians have been killed in Sweida since Sunday. The SOHR also claimed, based on local sources, that 27 Druze civilians had been “executed” by Syrian government forces in Sweida. The organisation recorded the deaths of 165 Syrian soldiers and 18 armed Bedouin.
Israel, which occupies part of southern Syria, first became involved in the conflict by demanding that “no troops be stationed in southern Damascus”. It first attacked the government’s armoured vehicles in Sweida. On Wednesday, Israel bombed some state institutions in Damascus, including the building housing the Syrian General Staff Headquarters.
Following regime change, Israel targeted Syria’s remaining military infrastructure with large-scale airstrikes, including an airstrike on Damascus in May. At the time, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz issued an ultimatum to the HTS regime, saying, “This is a clear message to the Syrian regime. We will not permit Syrian troops to move south of Damascus or any threat to the Druze community.”
The overthrow of the Assad regime in December greatly undermined Iran’s influence in the country. The US and its allies had been trying to overthrow the regime since 2011 by using Islamist jihadists and Kurdish militias as proxies. In June, when Israel used Syrian airspace to attack Iran, the Damascus regime remained silent in the face of US-Israeli aggression against Tehran.
Regime change in Damascus also intensified the rivalry between two of the US’s allies: Turkey and Israel. While Ankara continues to occupy northern Syria militarily in order to combat Kurdish forces, Tel Aviv views Ankara’s strong political and ideological ties with the HTS regime as a threat to its own influence.
The Nagel Commission report presented to the Netanyahu regime in January stated that “Turkey has become the most influential power in Damascus and that the Sunni-Turkish axis has replaced Iran’s Shiite axis,” and argued that military capabilities should be strengthened in preparation for a possible conflict with Turkey.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government is also concerned about Israel increasing its influence in Lebanon and Syria, as well as Palestine, and its consolidation as the main regional Middle East power with the support of the US. In October, Erdoğan said: “The Israeli leadership, acting with the delirium of the promised land and with a purely religious fanaticism, will set its sights on our homeland after Palestine and Lebanon.”
Yesterday, the Turkish Ministry of National Defence issued a statement saying, “If requested, we will provide all possible support to strengthen Syria’s defence capabilities and assist in its fight against terrorism.”
However, although Ankara has made rhetorical criticisms of Israel’s genocide in Gaza and its attacks on Iran, it continues to fuel the Zionist regime with oil from Azerbaijan and allows US bases in Turkey to be used for Israel’s benefit.
Ankara is also concerned about Israel’s declaring Kurdish forces in Syria as “natural allies.” This has been a factor in Turkey’s move toward a new agreement with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), as Turkey seeks to cooperate with the US in its “new Middle East” plans and reap its own rewards. The Erdoğan government is promoting a reactionary “Turkish-Kurdish-Arab” alliance perspective, with the support of the PKK’s imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan, to counter Zionist Israel’s expansionist ambitions in the region.
In Syria, Washington is trying to develop a coordinated policy with Turkey and Israel, as well as the HTS regime and Kurdish forces linked to the PKK. This policy is particularly aimed at Iran and its allies.
Washington intervened in the situation out of concern that Israel’s attacks could lead to an uncontrolled escalation among its allies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement Wednesday night, “We have engaged all the parties involved in the clashes in Syria. We have agreed on specific steps that will bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight. This will require all parties to deliver on the commitments they have made and this is what we fully expect them to do.”
As forces loyal to the Damascus regime withdrew from Sweida, HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) made a statement on television Thursday morning, saying, “We are not afraid of war, and we have dedicated our lives to confronting challenges and defending our people. However, we place the interests of Syrians above chaos and destruction.” He added: “For this reason, we have decided to entrust local factions and tribal elders with the task of maintaining security in Sweida.”
Sharaa continued: “Effective US, Arab, and Turkish mediation saved the region from an uncertain fate. We were faced with two choices: either open war with the Israeli entity at the expense of our Druze people and their security, destabilising Syria and the entire region, or allowing the Druze notables and sheikhs to regain their senses and prioritise the national interest over those who seek to tarnish the reputation of the honourable people of Sweida.”
On Wednesday, the Turkish Grand National Assembly, including Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its fascist ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, as well as various “opposition” parties, including the Kemalist Republican People’s Party (CHP), passed a resolution condemning Israel. The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), which has been mediating negotiations between the Erdoğan government and Öcalan, abstained from the vote.
The resolution said, “We emphasize in the strongest terms that we support Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and that we stand against all actions that threaten the peace of our friend and brother Syrian people.”
This comes from the political establishment of a country that, alongside the US and Israel, has played a critical role in the bloody war in Syria since 2011, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions more.
The resolution continued, “We state that peace and stability in Syria will serve regional peace and stability, while any developments to the contrary will only benefit Netanyahu and his team, who have built their existence on blood and conflict.”
As further proof of the hypocrisy of the Turkish bourgeois political establishment’s calls for “peace,” the resolution called on the “international community,” i.e., the US and NATO imperialism, Israel’s main supporters, to “raise its voice against Israel’s aggression, which is deepening the regional crisis and threatening world peace, and to take effective, consistent, and decisive measures.”
