Ahwaz sees massive surge in arrests as crackdown widens

Rahim Hamid

Iran is witnessing a massive surge in human rights abuses of all types. These include extrajudicial killings, arrests, torture; crackdowns on journalists, intellectuals, activists and human rights advocates, repression of student movements, and persecution of ethnic and religious minorities.  Amongst those arrested are female activists and elderly people, including individuals with no involvement in any sort of activism, who apparently merely had the misfortune to be in the area where arrests of activists were taking place.

The government appears to be using an attack on an IRGC military parade in Ahwaz on September 22 as a pretext for justifying intensified brutality and repression of political dissidents, journalists, intellectuals, human rights activists and minorities, arresting almost 1,000 Ahwazis in the weeks since the attack in which dozens of regime troops or cadets were killed or wounded.  According to the latest reports, at least 600 of the Ahwazi activists arrested are still being detained. The arrests have been particularly heavy around the towns of Muhammarah, Abadan and Khafajieh.

Those detained have been taken to unknown destinations, with their families denied any contact or even information on their whereabouts.

Ahwazi diaspora activists have launch tweet storm on Wednesday, October 24 in support of Ahwazi political prisoners calling on the world and the international community to join the movement with the hashtag #Free600AhwaziDetainees. Also, the tweeter storm asked cancelling the heavy sentences against Ahwazi prisoners by writing shortly in Arabic, Persian, English or your own language. The Campaign has urged the Iranian authorities to promptly reverse unjust sentences against the prisoners and release them immediately and unconditionally.

Raids, arrests of women, elderly people

 Ahwazi rights groups revealed that Iranian security forces have raided activists’ homes in the regional capital city of Ahwaz, as well as in Hamidieh, Khafajieh, and rural areas, arresting activists and political dissidents, including women and elderly people.

One of the detained activists, 70-year-old Sadiq Al-Nazari is suffering from a number of chronic medical conditions, according to Ahwazi human rights activists, with his family extremely concerned for his wellbeing.

Karim Dahimi, a human rights activist, based in London, said that the Iranian government has been systematically detaining Ahwazi activists taking them to secluded torture facilities known as ‘black sites’, which are infamous amongst the public, although the regime refuses to acknowledge their existence, being used to perpetrate horrific torture.  Dahimi explained that the latest campaign of arrests and detentions in the black site prisons aims to provoke panic amongst dissidents and activists and to terrorize them into silence, ending any protest against the regime’s multifaceted oppression.

Citing hundreds of reports documenting the mass detentions, prison sentences on fabricated charges and executions of Ahwazi freedom activists, Dahimi condemned the regime’s actions, saying that this behavior is illegal, as well as morally repulsive, by every measure. He added, “These procedures defy all international norms and laws under which the rights of peoples are protected, including the freedom and security of individuals.”

Mass arrests

The pattern of mass arrests in the region of Ahwaz, which has witnessed numerous peaceful protests, has been repeated in other areas across Iran as the regime tries to clamp down on growing anger at the brutality and endemic corruption.

Protesters at massive peaceful demonstrations by Ahwazis have called for an end to the regime’s anti-Arab racism and repression, as well as demanding resolution of the problems plaguing the region, including high prices, unemployment, severe pollution, lack of drinking water and  worsening sandstorms, as well as condemning the regime’s massive and controversial dam-building and river-diversion program in Ahwaz, under which the region’s once abundant rivers have been reduced to a trickle or dried up completely as the waters are rerouted to other, ethnically Persian regions,  which is the cause of the water shortages and dust storms.

The latest arrests are also widely viewed as part of a campaign by the regime to militarize the region, with the leadership in Tehran seen as exploiting the attack on the IRGC forces to justify a plan to intensify the already severe repression of the indigenous Arab population.    It’s feared that this may lead to a new crackdown targeting all activists and dissidents in order to silence dissent and quell any protests against the regime’s racist policies and behavior.

Speaking on a condition of anonymity, an Ahwazi human rights activist said, “The Iranian government practices relentless clampdown as represented by mass arrests and political executions. It changes the essence of internal conflicts through attempting to link every domestic movement to foreign conspiracies so that it can justify oppression and avoid engagement with the rising masses demanding their rights. The people want the regime to stop spending their money on regional wars and its own expansionist ambitions. They want to see the nation developed and be given their rights to freedom and a decent life.”

Following the latest arbitrary arrests and wave of repression, Ahwazi human rights organisations have called for the immediate and unconditional release of all detainees, warning that they will be tortured to obtain confessions.

Whilst the Iranian regime is nominally a signatory to numerous human rights treaties, its systematic racism towards Ahwazis and other ethnic minorities who collectively make up more than half of Iran’s population shows the hollowness of the regime’s commitment to these agreements.

Torture as standard

The regime also ignores its own legislation on human rights; although the Iranian constitution bans torture in detention centers, it is the standard tool of the regime’s intelligence services, IRGC and prison staff, used to extract confessions and to terrorize inmates and the general public into silence.

During interrogation, Ahwazi prisoners are forced to write detailed accounts of their daily lives from childhood up to their time in captivity. They are compelled to write everything they know, even if it has no link to political and security issues.  These methods, along with the physical torture, are used to wear down the captives both mentally and physiologically and to destroy their spirits and place excessive pressure on him.

The intelligence service also uses long, open discussions with the Ahwazi prisoner as a technique to gain more information and to identify prisoner’s orientations and directions, as well as to uncover details that may have been missed in their written accounts. The content of these discussions is then manipulated and used to fit the regime’s objectives. Often, the detainee will be labelled as dangerous on the basis of unrelated and wholly innocent comments, fabricated accusations and ill-defined charges such as ‘waging war against God’, ‘spreading corruption on Earth’, ‘posing a potential threat to national security’ or ‘spreading propaganda against the regime’ in an attempt to further malign Ahwazi peoples as innately criminal.

The efforts of all these regime activities,in addition to breaking the prisoners’ will and issuing false charges against Ahwazi prisoners after filming and documenting  prisoners’ coerced confessions, is to orchestrate  a scenario  in which the prisoners have incriminated themselves and voluntarily offered their self-incriminating confessions;  despite the fact that everyone is well aware that the whole process is a Kafkaesque farce,  these engineered “confessions”, according to the regime’s  perverted logic,  provide a justification for their imprisonment or execution.

The regime’s atrocities, up to and including killing by torture, against dissidents and detainees are routine and unpunished; perpetrators are not only let off with their crimes but are routinely promoted within the regime hierarchy.   Meanwhile, the families of victims who died under torture are denied access to legal action over the crimes perpetrated against their loved ones, despite torture being proscribed and considered a grave offence by the regime’s supposedly Islamic penal code.

It is clear that the international community is tacitly giving Iran’s regime carte blanche to continue its human rights violations by its refusal to condemn this continuous and worsening brutality and systematic disregard for international law.

The Iranian government is trying to annihilate Ahwazi Arab existence and presence in the country once and for all. As such, Ahwazi activists emphasize that international silence about the regime’s violations means international approval. They are calling for the international community to intervene unconditionally to stop the Iranian regime’s campaign of multifaceted persecution; the relentless executions, torture, and denial of fundamental human and civil rights; the destruction of the environment; and the obliterating of the culture, identity and existence of an entire people.

Tensions continues to wrack Australian government after by-election defeat

Mike Head 

Shockwaves from the record swing against the Liberal-National Coalition government in last Saturday’s by-election in the inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth are intensifying the conflicts that are destabilising not just the ruling parties but the political establishment as whole.

For only the second time since World War II, Australia is set to have a minority government. The last one, the Gillard-Rudd Labor government, survived from 2010 to 2013 with the support of the Greens and some independents before it was swept from office in a general election landslide.

The underlying volatility goes far beyond the immediate fallout from the Wentworth by-election. Increasingly, the parliamentary set-up in Australia, as in other countries, is being torn asunder by the tensions being generated by widening social inequality, the prospect of another financial breakdown and the aggressive “America First” program of the Trump administration, which is stoking conflict with China and Russia.

The result in Wentworth is another indication of the deepening popular hostility toward all the major parties. Successive governments, both Coalition and Labor, have enriched the financial elite while imposing far-reaching cuts to healthcare, education and welfare, attacking basic democratic rights and stepping up Australian involvement in US-led wars and military preparations for conflict with China.

Not only did the Coalition lose a third of its vote in Wentworth, but so did Labor and the Greens. As a result, an independent took the seat, adding to an array of 16 “independents” or “other party” politicians in the House of Representatives and Senate.

While postal votes are still being counted, it seems almost certain that the Liberal Party has lost the seat that it or its conservative predecessors have held since the electorate was established in 1901. At the latest count, Kerry Phelps, an independent, will have 51.1 percent of the vote after the allocation of preferences from Labor, the Greens and other candidates.

Despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government now holding only 74 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives, the Coalition is seeking to remain in office by securing pledges from various independents not to back no-confidence motions. The Labor Party is assisting the government, and striving to stabilise the parliamentary order, by indicating its opposition to forcing a general election before the next one is due in May.

Labor leader Bill Shorten and his shadow cabinet ministers this week ruled out initial suggestions that Labor would push for an early election. Tony Burke, manager of opposition business in the House of Representatives, played down the prospect of a no-confidence motion. “We want to see a Shorten Labor government be elected at a general election. That’s what we want to see,” he said.

How long the government can hold on, however, is far from clear. The huge defeat in Wentworth, which was held by Malcolm Turnbull, who was ousted via an internal Liberal Party coup on August 24, has inflamed the rifts in both the Liberal and National parties that led to Turnbull’s removal.

The most right-wing Liberal Party faction, centred on ex-Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, has blamed Turnbull for the loss, because he quit the seat after being deposed and refused to publicly support the party’s candidate. Yesterday, Abbott went further, criticising Morrison’s decision to invite Turnbull to head a delegation to an environmental conference in Bali.

Morrison, himself a member of the right-wing faction, is trying to hold the Liberal Party together by seeking to placate the “moderate” wing around Turnbull while implementing the policies of the Abbott-Dutton wing. “This is not about going one way or the other way, to the left or the right,” he declared after the Wentworth loss. “We are in the sensible centre right of Australian politics.”

Adding to the government’s fragility, however, virtually open warfare has erupted in the rural-based National Party. Former leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, who is allied with Abbott, is clearly pushing to return as party leader, at the expense of his replacement Michael McCormack, who was backed by Turnbull.

Morrison has underscored the lurch to the right contained in Turnbull’s ouster by doubling down on the Coalition’s anti-refugee policies and its support for coal-fired power stations, as well as its commitment to Washington’s confrontation with China. Morrison and Dutton this week reversed Morrison’s indication last week that the government could allow some refugees detained on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island to be resettled in New Zealand, provided they were barred from ever entering Australia.

Like Trump and far-right governments and movements in Europe, the government’s “hard right” faction is trying to whip up a socially conservative and xenophobic base, and divert the mounting discontent in the working class along reactionary anti-immigrant, nationalist and protectionist lines.

There is concern in some ruling circles, however, that this pitch could unleash social and class tensions and further destabilise the political system, particularly under conditions of global economic, geo-strategic and political instability.

In an opinion column on Wednesday, the Australian’s editor-at-large Paul Kelly warned of the break-up of the Liberal Party, which has been one of the central pillars of capitalist politics in Australia since the last world war.

More broadly, the government’s defeat in Wentworth, coming on top of another collapse of its vote in a recent by-election in the northern Brisbane seat of Longman, pointed to a “rising tribalisation of Australian politics and culture” as “the shared compact that binds Australia together begins to disintegrate.”

Similar fears were reflected by former foreign minister and deputy Liberal Party leader, Julie Bishop, in a speech to a security forum on Wednesday. Bishop, who quit her posts when Turnbull was removed, warned that rising appeals by political leaders to populism, nationalism and protectionism to “exploit community unease” were “coinciding with a crisis of confidence in democracy.”

Bishop said this was a “dangerous combination” when the “international rules-based order” that had evolved since World War II was “under strain, even direct challenge.” She explicitly criticised US President Donald Trump, saying that many nations perceived his “America First” approach as a “zero-sum game,” where the US could only win if some other nation lost.

These remarks also point to another factor in the ousting of Turnbull, who was regarded in Washington as insufficiently committed to a US-led conflict with China.

Under these conditions, the ruling class is relying on the Labor Party and trade union leadership to suppress rising unrest in the working class and corral it behind the election of yet another pro-business and pro-US Labor government.

The depth of that discontent, after years of falling real wages, destruction of permanent jobs and deteriorating living conditions, was underscored on Tuesday when about 150,000 workers protested in Melbourne, with substantial rallies in other cities, in opposition to the corporate-government offensive against jobs, wages and working conditions. The next day, thousands of public servants joined a half-day stoppage in the island state of Tasmania and held rallies, demanding higher wages.

However, the aim of the trade unions, which called the protests, is to channel these sentiments behind the election of a Labor government that will, in reality, be committed to the dictates of the corporate elite, both for further sweeping attacks on the working class and for participation in US-led wars.

Polish regional elections point to growing political instability

Clara Weiss

The Polish regional elections, which included elections to the regional assemblies and mayoral races in major cities, resulted in a setback for both the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) and the opposition bloc “Civic Coalition” (Koalicja Obywatelska).

With about 53 percent, voter participation was the its highest in any regional election since 1989.

After a campaign that heavily promoted Polish nationalism and anti-German sentiments, PiS won 32.3 percent of the votes to regional assemblies. This is significantly higher than in the regional elections four years ago, when PiS won only 26.9 percent. However, it fell far short of the expected 40 percent. It also represented a loss of over 5 percent of votes compared to the parliamentary elections of 2015 when the ruling party scored 37.6 percent and won a majority in the parliament. With a similar outcome in the upcoming 2019 parliamentary elections, PiS would be unable to maintain its parliamentary majority, despite widespread distrust and hatred of the opposition.

The opposition bloc Koalicja Obywatelska (KO), which included the former ruling PO, the most openly pro-business Nowoczesna (Modern) and the pseudo-left Razem (Together), received only 26.7 percent of the votes to the regional assemblies. This compares to 26.29 percent that the PO received on its own in the elections four years ago. Before Sunday’s election, the PO had held a majority in 15 out of the country’s 16 provincial governments.

The election result is an indication of a broad alienation of masses of working people from the so-called liberal opposition to the PiS government and the protest movement it has led in 2015-2016, which has focused almost exclusively on advocating a stronger orientation toward the European Union and Germany.

The right-wing peasant party PSL was the only party that made significant gains and received about 17 percent of the votes, most of them in rural regions. (Some 40 percent of Poland’s 38 million inhabitants live in the countryside.) It is expected that through alliances with the PSL, the liberal opposition will be able to maintain control over most regional assemblies.

KO candidates won the mayoral races in most major cities, including Warsaw, Łódź, Wrocław and Poznań. The most important mayoral race was in Warsaw, the capital city, which has been the center of the opposition-led protest movement of 2015-2016, which was dominated by sections of the country’s ruling and upper middle class that are concerned about PiS’s foreign policy and see its anti-democratic policies as an infringement upon their own ability to direct Poland’s politics. The KO candidate, Rafał Trazaskowski, who is a former official of PO-led governments and a close ally of the former EU council president Donald Tusk, ran on an aggressively pro-EU platform and won in the first round with over 50 percent of the votes.

In Łódź, the KO’s candidate, Hanna Zdanowska, also won in the first round with over 70 percent of the votes.

Contributing to what has been generally interpreted as an electoral setback for PiS was an audiotape scandal involving Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In the tapes from 2013, which were released only a few weeks before the election by Onet.pl, Morawiecki, who was then the head of the Polish branch of Santander Bank, made openly anti-Semitic remarks, complaining about “greedy” and rich “Americans, Jews, Germans, Englishmen, and Swiss” who run hedge funds. The tapes also show Morawiecki’s close and long-standing ties to leading PiS politicians.

Similar tapes, all of which were recorded at an elite Warsaw Restaurant, were part of a corruption scandal that helped bring down the PO government in 2015. Morawiecki, who was named prime minister last December, also provoked a scandal in February when he claimed that there were “Jewish collaborators” in the Holocaust.

Under PiS, the Polish government has become one of the most right-wing in all of Europe. Anti-semitism, virulent racism and extreme militarism are promoted on an official level and throughout the government-controlled media. Earlier this year, government passed a law, outlawing writings about the involvement of Polish far-right nationalists and anti-Semites in the Holocaust. PiS has also de facto created an authoritarian regime and a massive, paramilitary army.

of far-right forces that is under the direct control of the fascistic defense minister Antoni Macierewicz.

However, while the election results indicate that there is growing opposition to the promotion of far-right nationalism, anti-Semitism, and militarism under PiS, the KO did its best not to appeal to this opposition. None of these issues were even mentioned in its election program. Instead, the KO presented a program of vague phrases about “freedom, equality, dignity and solidarity” and stressed the significance of decentralization and greater powers for the local governments. All of this was combined with a few hollow promises about investments in local infrastructure and social welfare programs.

The pseudo-left Razem (Together), which is in an alliance with the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 of Yanis Varoufakis, joined the Coalition with the aim of providing the widely hated liberal opposition with a left-wing cover. Completely glossing over both the right-wing record of PO and Nowoczesna (a party created by a former World Bank economist) and the question of Poland’s foreign policy orientation, which lies at the heart of much of the current conflict between the opposition and the government, Barbara Nowacka from Razem said in an interview with the liberal Gazeta Wyborcza: “The [electoral] defeat of PiS is the basis for reconstructing democracy in Poland. And this is the basis for creating a just state and one that takes care of the weakest, and helps them to function in a dignified manner in society.”

This line is fraudulent, reactionary and dangerous. Not only did the social austerity under the PO contribute mightily to the rise of PiS. More than that, on all the most fundamental questions for the working class—the question of war and austerity—the divisions between PO and PiS are of a tactical, not a fundamental nature.

Under both the PO and PiS, the Polish ruling class has worked to transform Poland into a stronghold for NATO’s war preparations against Russia. PiS’s efforts to erect a full-blown authoritarian state are primarily aimed at preparing for war and a violent suppression of working class opposition.

In yet another indicator of the advanced stage of war preparations, the Polish President Andrzej Duda declared in an interview this month that a possible permanent US military base in Poland was effectively a done deal. In late September, a spokesman for Duda announced that Warsaw will spend some $2 billion to build infrastructure for American soldiers in Poland, including “housing, educational facilities, medical facilities.”

The liberal opposition does not oppose these war preparations. However, in contrast to PiS, the PO advocates a military build-up in alliance with the EU and especially Germany, whereas PiS fears German hegemony in Europe and seeks to build a US-supported alliance of far-right regimes throughout Eastern Europe that would be directed against both Russia and Germany. The rapidly growing tensions between US imperialism and the EU, and particularly German imperialism, have dramatically exacerbated these conflicts in Poland’s ruling elites, which have been historically torn over the question of what imperialist power they should align themselves with.

The situation in Poland is a sharp expression of the dangers and political dead-end facing workers in Europe within the framework of the existing bourgeois political establishment. The only way to prepare it for the fight against the far-right and the danger of war is the fight for an independent socialist program and the building of sections of the International Committee of the Fourth International.

French flooding deaths expose legacy of austerity

Olivier Laurent

Last week, on October 14-15, heavy rains triggered two days of flooding that devastated the Aude region of southern France. Fourteen people were killed, 75 were injured and there was enormous damage. A total of 126 municipalities have been declared natural disaster sites in an 80 kilometer perimeter stretching from the north of Carcassonne to the mouth of the Aude river.

In the city of Villegailhenc, one of the most badly damaged, three people lost their lives. The mayor said, “More than half of our households have lost everything. In nearly two of every three houses there is nothing left on the ground floor.”

This catastrophe has struck a region that is already poor and neglected. It is principally rural and lives off of tourism, winegrowing and fishing, all of which were hard hit by the 2008 financial crash. The unemployment rate rose to 17 percent in 2015. Average household income, at €20,523, is 20.8 percent less than the national average.

Fifteen hundred houses have lost electricity, 10,000 are without running water, four road bridges have been destroyed and two more have been badly damaged. The recently built hospital in Carcassonne was also hit, and four villages were evacuated due to concerns over the stability of a dam. The vineyards in an 80 kilometer radius around the Aude were damaged or completely carried off by the floodwaters.

There are also concerns over the effect of the flooding on a nuclear site at Malvési run by Orano (formerly known as Areva), which stores nearly 1 million cubic meters of radioactive water in the open air.

This is the worst flood of the Aude river, one of the rivers of southern France known for its violent autumn flooding, since 1891. The lack of preparation for the flooding has exposed again the terrible consequences of the austerity policies imposed by the European Union and French President Emmanuel Macron’s bitterly unpopular government.

Already in 1999, a major storm over the Aude region and the Mediterranean Sea came together to cause 31 deaths and €535 million in damage to the region. At the time, the Socialist Party (PS) government of Lionel Jospin responded by declaring that it would launch an “overall plan” for substantial improvements in national and local prevention, awareness and management of storms and floods.

In 2010, the Aude police prefecture declared in a flyer than the lessons of the 1999 floods had been learned with the setting up of various mechanisms, including “813 prevention plans for flood risks, 191 communal safety plans, 9 action plans to prevent flooding, and 3 flood prevention services.” It concluded: “1999-2009 were ten years of improvement of the regulatory framework. The state is organizing the saving of lives and the protection property.”

This has been flatly contradicted by the experience of the population of the Aude region, which has made known its anger at the lack of preparedness.

The red alert that the Météo-France weather service was supposed to give to warn residents to seek shelter was launched only at 6 a.m., by which point the equivalent of three months of rain had already fallen and the region’s population had been forced to flee their flooded homes.

There were not enough firemen in the region to deal with the crisis: 350 firemen had to come from nearby regions—approximately the same number as those available in the Aude region. Firemen from nearby regions were, however, available to intervene only after the flooding.

Flood victims were forced to wait hours for water in emergency shelters set up by the municipalities and even longer for food. The media were left to applaud local initiatives and the intervention of charities such as the Red Cross in an effort to cover up the state’s failure to provide adequate supplies.

Reports by France Stratégie, a government agency, and by the French Senate pointed last year to the lack of resources at Météo France, highlighting the role of budget cuts since 2014, cuts to state funding after 2012, the decision to not hire replacements for 20 percent of staff as they retired, and the danger of “meteorological deserts,” where no precise observations can be made due to facility closures.

The Aude’s inhabitants made their views clear to Prime Minister Edouard Philippe when he visited the area in what the daily L’Indépendant euphemistically called “a climate of incomprehension.” In the city of Trèbes, he was denounced by one resident, who told him: “I have lost animals, and people are dead. Everyone knew Storm Leslie was coming, that rain was coming from the Mediterranean. L’Aude is not a peaceful river. But nothing was said or done.”

Philippe tried to defend himself by claiming that the event was unpredictable, whereas in fact the plans of the local administration are intended precisely to deal with such “exceptional” events.

Many commentators posted angry remarks on the prime minister’s Twitter feed, mocking a picture of Philippe helping an older lady leave her home: “And the photographer appeared there purely by chance, of course,” “What a shameful set-up,” and “I screwed her pension, but I am so compassionate.”

As in other natural disasters aggravated by budget cuts, the worst hit are the poorest and those with the least resources. Those who lost their lives in this disaster, who were injured or who lost everything are, in the final analysis, the victims of the explosive rise of social inequality in France.

Endless European Union austerity measures carried out by successive governments of all political stripes, of the right and of PS, have left behind public services that are bled white and a crumbling infrastructure. At the same time, hundreds of billions of euros are being funneled to the military and the super-rich, with billionaire Bernard Arnault increasing his capital by €22 billion over the last year alone.

This plundering of resources vital to meet the most urgent requirements of the population, while workers are constantly told to make sacrifices for austerity, has left critical services under-funded and understaffed.

Moreover, it is well known that with global warming such “exceptional” meteorological events are expected to become far more frequent. To avoid even worse catastrophes in the future, it is critical to seize and place at the disposal of society the enormous social resources that are squandered on the European financial aristocracy.

“Trident Juncture” manoeuvres begin: NATO rehearses for war against Russia

Philipp Frisch

Today NATO begins its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War. “Trident Juncture”, which is taking place in Norway and is to last almost a month, heightens the danger of a wide-ranging war between NATO and Russia. Conflicts between the major powers, which are worsening week by week, will be further exacerbated by the NATO exercise.

“Trident Juncture” brings together the armed forces of 29 NATO countries plus Sweden and Finland for massive war games. A total of 50,000 soldiers will train in winter conditions. Ten thousand vehicles and over 130 aircraft were brought to Norway last month for the manoeuvres.

Seventy ships will be involved in the naval exercise “Northern Coasts” in the North Atlantic and North Sea. The number of soldiers and amount of military equipment involved exceeds NATO’s original plans.

The major manoeuvres in northern Europe are clearly directed against Russia. According to the official explanation, the exercise is designed to train for a scenario in which NATO’s “mutual defence” clause is invoked. This means nothing else than a NATO war against Russia.

In 2014, Russia responded to the far-right coup in Ukraine, which, with massive support from the US and the EU, brought to power an anti-Russian regime in Kiev, with the annexation of Crimea. Since then, NATO has accused Russia of aggressive and expansionist policies—a construct to justify the deployment of NATO troops to the Russian border and for war games like “Trident Juncture”—and is increasingly preparing for a “mutual defence” scenario.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made little effort to hide the obvious. The exercise was “fictional, but realistic,” Stoltenberg said in the run-up to the meeting of NATO defence ministers earlier this month. The military alliance had invited Russia to send observers. In charge of the manoeuvres, US Admiral James Foggo said the exercise was not directed against a particular country, rather, it served to demonstrate NATO’s military capabilities “against any opponent.”

NATO diplomats, however, openly admitted that the location of the manoeuvres was not accidental. “Of course, it’s because of Russia,” said foreign policy spokesman for the social democrats in the European Parliament, Knut Fleckenstein. “The soldiers are not practicing for an attack on Guatemala, but someone coming from above—and that’s where Russia is.”

The Land Forces exercises take place only about 500 kilometres from the Russian border. Fighter aircraft will also operate in Finnish airspace, which is directly adjacent to Russian airspace. The same applies to the Baltic Sea, where parts of the naval warfare exercises will take place. These areas are regularly overflown by Russian military aircraft.

One need only imagine a major manoeuvre by Russian and Chinese armed forces, with tens of thousands of soldiers and over 100 aircraft, taking place in Mexico or Canada along with several dozen warships practicing for a major war in the Gulf of Mexico or on the East Coast of the United States, to have an idea of how provocative “Trident Juncture” is.

Maria Sakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, condemned the manoeuvres, describing them as “sabre-rattling”. Sakharova said, “The leading NATO countries are strengthening their military presence in the region near the Russian border,” adding that Moscow will “take the necessary countermeasures to ensure its security.”

The manoeuvres take place under conditions of explosive tensions between the major powers. At a campaign meeting in Nevada last Saturday, President Trump announced his plans for a US withdrawal from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Since it was signed in 1987, the INF treaty has been one of the mainstays of international nuclear weapons control. Should Washington terminate the treaty, a new nuclear arms race between the major powers will be unleashed 30 years after the end of the Cold War.

At the end of last year, the US published its National Defense Strategy, which no longer places the “war on terror” at the heart of US military strategy, but rather, “major power competition.” The document names Russia and China as “revisionist” states and prime targets.

Such military confrontations between major powers are now being rehearsed as part of “Trident Juncture”. While the land forces in Norway are simulating a winter war, the ships in the North Atlantic are training for how supply lines can be organised in an emergency and how sea routes from the American continent to the European continent can be protected.

Preparations for the exercise, which have been staged intensively since last month, also constitute a logistical show of strength. Organising supplies for 50,000 troops and the transport of vehicles across Europe is a test of how the continent’s infrastructure is suited for the efficient deployment of large military units in a major war.

Ten thousand Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) soldiers are participating in the exercise, a new record. This means that 20 percent of those participating come from Germany. As host, only Norway is providing more troops. After two world wars, in which some 80 million people were killed, German imperialism is again preparing for criminal wars.

The Bundeswehr is supplying 4,000 vehicles, more than half the total, including about 100 tanks. The Luftwaffe (Air Force) is involved with 500 soldiers, its own air defence units, two airborne combat units and transport machines.

The strong involvement of the Bundeswehr is officially justified by the fact that it will take command of NATO’s rapid reaction force in Eastern Europe in 2019. Germany also wanted to show that it was ready to assume more responsibility within the military alliance in the future, it was reported.

In truth, it concerns much more. With the new “Bundeswehr Concept,” which was published by the government at the end of July this year, Germany is preparing once again for massive military operations.

The document states: “Conventional attacks against the Alliance are to be expected, especially on its external borders. The army must be given the capacities to operate in this area. It must have the forces and means at its disposal to deploy after a brief mobilisation to the borders or beyond alliance territory. This must include strategic deployment capabilities. … Collective defence within alliance territory can range from small-scale operations to an extremely demanding deployment within the framework of a very large operation both within and on the outskirts of alliance territory.”

It also states: “Rapid strike and follow-up capabilities for a very large operation have to be planned. They must be effectual in a hybrid conflict as it develops and escalates across the full spectrum of is effects, in all its dimensions, in a joint, multi-national armed force, and in all types of operations. At the beginning of a very large, high-intensity operation, a huge deployment of readily available forces and equipment is necessary. Provisions to regenerate the personnel and material will be undertaken.”

The NATO manoeuvres in Norway are preparing for such a “very large, high-intensity operation.” A spokesman for the German Defence Ministry said that the Bundeswehr was “deliberately taking on a pioneering role.” As part of “Trident Juncture”, the Bundeswehr was practicing for the leadership of multinational combat units. “This is a demanding task, especially when troops from many nations are to cooperate on a larger scale,” the spokesman continued.

Meanwhile, the German government has also acknowledged that the operation is not only very large, but also very expensive. The supply and relocation of troops to Norway alone is costing €90 million.

Fall in hi-tech shares wipes out Wall Street’s 2018 gains

Nick Beams

Wall Street experienced a sharp sell-off yesterday, wiping out all the gains it has made this year, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ index undergoing its biggest fall in seven years.

The fall in the markets came late in the day with the Dow Jones dropping by 334 points in the last hour of trading. It finished down more than 600 points for the day, a decline of 2.4 percent, continuing the trend of the past two weeks. The VIX volatility index ended around 22 percent up, its highest level since the market turbulence of last February.

The benchmark S&P 500 index was down by 3.1 percent, bringing its fall over the past month to 9.4 percent.

The biggest fall was in the NASDAQ index, which dropped by 4.4 percent. This was its biggest drop since August 2011, taking its decline to more than 12 percent since its peak in August this year. Over the past period, tech stocks have sustained the rise in the market but have now become the leaders of the downturn.

One of the areas showing the sharpest falls has been the shares of chipmakers because they are sensitive to trade flows between the US and China and are being hit by concerns over the impact of the trade war launched by the Trump administration.

Shares in Texas Instruments fell by more than 8 percent after its profit and revenue forecasts fell below market expectations. After the market had closed, the shares of another hi-tech company, AMD, dropped by a further 22 percent, on top of the 9 percent decline during regular trading hours.

In comments to the Financial Times, Max Gorkman, head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors, cited the trade tensions that are threatening to disrupt global supply chains as a key reason for the sell-off. “Semiconductors are so tied to Asia,” he said. “Most supply chains—once you disrupt them it’s hard to find alternatives.”

On top of the disruption caused by the US trade war with China, there is a growing recognition that sooner, rather than later, the effects of the “sugar hit” delivered by the Trump administration’s massive corporate tax cuts will wear off. The tax cuts have boosted markets in two ways: by raising corporate profits and share earnings and by providing companies with additional cash to finance the share buybacks that have been a significant component of the rise of the market.

Signs of a weakening US economy came on Tuesday with significant falls in industrial shares, led down by two major corporations, Caterpillar and 3M. Caterpillar shares fell by 7.6 percent, after being down by 10 percent in the course of the day. Shares in the industrial conglomerate 3M dropped by 4.4 percent after being down by as much as 8 percent.

Both companies cited concerns over tariffs, trade war with China and rising costs in the US as impacting on their bottom line. Caterpillar said tariffs imposed by the Trump administration earlier this year on steel and aluminium had made the parts it produces for machinery more expensive.

Reporting on slower sales growth across all its lines in the third quarter, 3M chief executive Michael Roman said: “We see signs of slowing in China; the automotive build rates are down significantly and that has a knock-on effect.”

Commenting on Tuesday’s industrial sell-off, the Wall Street Journal said it was “the clearest signal yet that fortunes could be turning for manufacturers after a year of strong production and sales driven in part by tax cuts and high consumer confidence.”

The latest fall on Wall Street has taken place amid what the Financial Times described as a “frightful October” with the FTSE All World Index so far this month taking a fall of 7 percent—its worst performance since the peak of the euro zone crisis in 2012.

The FT reported that of the 3,211 members of the global equity index almost a third had lost 20 percent of their value so far this year in US dollar terms, well over half were down at least 10 percent and only 851 companies were still positive for 2018.

The newspaper cited one analyst who said the global market fall was driven by a “cocktail of negative drivers from Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic isolation and what that means for Silicon Valley to fresh worries about slowing global economic growth and fading corporate earnings.”

Another factor in the market downturn is the apparent determination of the US Federal Reserve to push ahead with interest rate rises. Three rises, each of 0.25 percentage points, have been carried out so far this year with the expectation that there will be another rise in December. The Fed is motivated by two concerns: to ensure that there is a downward push on wages amid low official unemployment rates and that it has some room to manoeuvre if there is a downturn in the US economy.

The Fed’s actions have brought a string of criticisms from US President Trump. After earlier denouncing the Fed as “crazy” and “loco,” he again took aim at the central bank in an interview with the Wall Street Journal earlier this week.

While adhering to the independence of the Fed in setting interest rates, he made it clear to chairman Jerome Powell that he wants to see them lowered.

“Every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates,” he said, adding that Powell “almost looks happy he’s raising interest rates.” Asked if he regretted placing Powell in the post, Trump said it was “too early to say, but maybe.”

“He was supposed to be a low-interest-rate guy. It’s turned out that he’s not,” Trump said. The president said was “very unhappy” with the Fed because “Obama had zero interest rates.”

However, during the 2016 election campaign Trump denounced the then Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen for keeping interest rates low, which, he said, was aiding the Democrats and creating a potential bubble in the stock markets.

Now he has changed tack out of fear that the bubble, which his policies have helped to inflate still further, could be on the way to collapsing.

French Government Eiffel Excellence 2019/2020 Masters and PhD Scholarships for Developing Countries

Application Deadline: 11th January, 2019

• Announcement of results: Week of March 25^th, 2019

Offered annually? Yes

Eligible Countries: Emerging economies

To be taken at: France

Accepted Subject Areas: Eiffel scholarships are available in three main fields:

• engineering science at master’s level,
• science in the broadest sense at PhD level (engineering science; exact sciences: mathematics, physics, chemistry and life sciences, nano- and biotechnology, earth sciences, sciences of the universe, environmental sciences, information and communication science and technology);
• economics and management;
• law and political sciences.

About the Award: The Eiffel Excellence Scholarship Programme was established by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Development to enable French higher education establishments to attract top foreign students to enrol in their master’s and PhD courses.
It helps to shape the future foreign decision-makers of the private and public sectors, in priority areas of study, and encourages applications from emerging countries at master’s level, and from emerging and industrialized countries at PhD level.

Offered Since: 1999

Type: Masters, PhD

Eligibility

• Only foreign nationals are eligible to apply for a scholarship from the French Government.
• In the case of dual nationality applicants, those with French nationality are ineligible.
• for master’s courses, candidates must be no older than 30 on the date of the selection committee meeting,March 2019; at PhD level, candidates must be no older than 35 on the date of the selection committee meeting, March 2019.
• only applications submitted by French educational establishments are accepted. These establishments undertake to enrol scholarship holders on the course for which they have been selected. Applications submitted by any other means shall not be considered. Furthermore, any candidate nominated by more than one establishment shall be disqualified.
• scholarships are for students wishing to enrol on a master’s course, including at an engineering school, and for PhD students. The Eiffel Programme does not apply to French-run master’s courses abroad, as non-PhD scholarship holders must complete at least 75% of their course in France. It does not apply to training under an apprenticeship contract or a professional training contract either.
• Educational establishments that shortlist non-French speaking applicants must ensure that their level of French is sufficient to enable them to integrate satisfactorily into the anticipated course

• Combination with other scholarships: foreign students who, at the time of application, have already been awarded a French government scholarship under another programme are not eligible, even if the scholarship in question does not include social security cover.
• Eiffel PhD scholarships: Establishments may nominate a candidate who was previously awarded an Eiffel scholarship at master’s level for a scholarship at PhD level. Candidates who have already been awarded an Eiffel scholarship once during their PhD cannot be awarded it for a second time. No application will be accepted for any student who applied previously but was rejected, even if the application is submitted by a different establishment or in another field of study.
• Eiffel master’s scholarships: no application will be accepted for any student who applied previously but was rejected, even if the application is submitted by a different establishment or in another field of study. Students who have already been awarded an Eiffel scholarship at master’s level are not eligible to re-apply at master’s level.
• Language skills: when pre-selecting non-French-speaking candidates, establishments must make sure that their language skills meet the requirements of the relevant course of study.

Number of Scholarships: Not Specified

Selection Criteria: The selection criteria are as follows:

• the excellence of the candidate, as demonstrated by his or her university career so far and the originality of his or her research subject;
• the international policy of the establishment nominating the candidate, its action in the geographical area in question, the excellence of the host department, the establishment’s compatibility with the candidate being nominated, its efforts to publicise the Eiffel Programme and its continued support of scholarship holders, especially through a partnership with France Alumni (https://www.francealumni.fr/en);
• the cooperation and partnership policy of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Development, and in particular, the priority given to certain countries for this Programme.

The committee marks each candidate for these three criteria and calculates a total score out of 50. It sets a minimum threshold for admissibility and distributes the scholarships as follows, depending on the number available:

• at least 70% of the scholarships are awarded to the highest-scoring candidates;
• the remaining scholarships are distributed among the establishments that have not received one, for candidates who achieved scores above the minimum threshold.

These selected applications represent the definitive list of successful candidates.

Scholarship Amount:

Master’s level:

• The Eiffel scholarship includes a monthly allowance of €1,181 (a maintenance allowance of €1,031 and a monthly stipend of €150).
• In addition, the following expenses are directly covered: – one international return journey; Page 3 of 6 – social security cover; – cultural activities. Scholarship holders may also receive an additional housing allowance, under certain conditions.

PhD level:

• The Eiffel scholarship includes a monthly allowance of €1,400.
• In addition, the following expenses are directly covered: – one international return journey (for students in law or political sciences who may make several trips, only one return journey shall be covered); – social security cover; – cultural activities. Scholarship holders may also receive an additional housing allowance, under certain conditions.

Duration: The scholarship is awarded for:

• a maximum of 12 months for entry at M2 level,
• a maximum of 24 months for entry at M1 level,
• a maximum of 36 months for an engineering degree.

A 2-month preliminary intensive language training course. The total duration of the course undertaken (including compulsory work experience or internships in France or abroad) must be clearly indicated by the educational establishment in the application form. Optional placements are not covered by the grant.
For PhD: The Eiffel scholarship is awarded for a maximum of ten months. For scientific and economic disciplines, no language course is provided for and the scholarship duration cannot be divided up. For law students, the ten-month scholarship can, with the consent of the selection committee, be split into two or three stays in France, of three or four months each. These stays must take place over a maximum of three calendar years. Only law students have the option of taking French lessons alongside their studies. This must be clearly requested in the application.

How to Apply

Visit the Scholarship Webpage for details to apply


Sponsors: The French Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs

Government of Canada Recruitment of Policy Leaders (RPL) Program 2019

Application Deadline: 5th November 2018 23:59 Pacific Time

To Be Taken At (Country): 

• Government of Canada organizations
• Various locations across Canada

About the Award: Aspiring to shape Canada’s domestic or international policies and programs? A career awaits for you. The Recruitment of Policy Leaders (RPL) program focuses on recruiting exceptional professionals with diverse achievements and experience into mid and senior-level policy positions across the Government of Canada.
Each year, the Recruitment of Policy Leaders (RPL) program seeks talented and accomplished academics, scientists and professionals. The RPL program offers you a unique opportunity to launch directly into stimulating and diverse careers in the federal public service and to make a difference to the lives of Canadians.
Candidates may also be considered for other opportunities at various levels across the Government of Canada.

Type: Jobs

Eligibility: As part of the application process you will be asked to respond to pre-screening questions about the requirements listed below:

• Education: You must have obtained by December 31, 2019 from a recognized university, a Master’s or a Doctoral degree in any discipline, or a law degree complemented by another undergraduate degree in any discipline.
• Academic excellence or distinctions: You must have obtained a record of academic excellence or a distinction.
• This record of academic excellence or distinction must have been obtained through:
  • Scholarships, such as: Trudeau, Rhodes, Fullbright, or Canada’s three federal granting agencies (Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC); or
  • Academic prizes or recognitions, such as: the Governor General’s Academic Medal (Gold or Silver), merit awards, departmental or university awards or admission to internationally competitive academic programs; or
  • Other academic distinction or achievement that demonstrate comparable levels of domestic or international academic excellence or achievement; or
  • Publications in peer-reviewed journals.
• Degree equivalency
• Experience: You must have acquired relevant policy experience in at least one (1) of the following fields: economics, political, legal, social or scientific.
• This policy experience must have been acquired through:
  • Work experience; or
    Research, studies, presentations or publications; or
    Program or policy development or implementation; or
    Managerial experience with non-governmental organizations, voluntary organizations, government, businesses, consulting firms, think tanks or universities.
• You must also have participated in activities in which you have either taken a leadership role, or demonstrated initiative, which brought about positive change in a community through:
  • Voluntary service to a community (e.g. student government, voluntary or not-for-profit sector); or
  • Personal accomplishment or initiative (e.g. high-level sporting or cultural achievement, founding a business or other organization); or
  • Receipt of community recognition through awards, prizes or other public acknowledgement for non-academic, non-professional achievement or contribution.
• Various language requirements

Selection Criteria: The RPL program assesses candidates on the following requirements:

• Knowledge of Canada’s public policy environment, its challenges and priorities.
• Analytical thinking
• Values and Ethics
• Ability to communicate effectively orally
• Ability to communicate effectively in writing

– Effective interpersonal relations
– Judgement
– Creativity
– Initiative/Leadership

Number of Awards: Number to be determined

Value of Award: The salary will depend on the position being staffed

How to Apply: Apply here

Visit the Program Webpage for Details

Award Providers: Government of Canada

Important Notes: 
Reference number: PSC17J-014695-001161
Selection process number: RLP-RPL-2017-2018

Mass Arrests in Ahwaz

Hossein Bouazar

Iran is taking advantage of the attack to unite the ranks behind the besieged regime, but they have bigger worry than a single armed operation in Ahwaz as the incident is just another terror attack done by the Iranian regime.

But the Ahwazis are paying a high price for the attack. Iranian regime continuous their systematic crack down on Ahwazi Arabs, continuously spreading fear among Ahwazis. Iran under the universal obligation must treat its own people fairly but are they following that? bearing in mind that the Iranian regime harass/arrests/torture and execute people for their political/cultural and environmental activities.

Even though Ahwaz region accounts for 90% of Iran’s  oil production, standing as the backbone of Iran’s economy, yet it is one of most underdeveloped borders in the world’s most polluted areas. Our sources in Ahwaz said around 400 people were arrested.

So, the arrestees include civil, cultural, religious, human rights and political activists.But the issue has gone further, and in some cases, children and women have been detained as hostages. Some of the detainees have been transferred to Tehran. Meanwhile, no one dares to inquire about courts or security forces departments because they are terrified that they may get arrested.

The security forces seem to do whatever they want with the Ahwazi Arab people as they can blame them with the “Military parade attack” label. They try to eradicate any kind of independent cultural and civil activity in the province by creating a climate of terror and imprisonment/torture and execution.

The names of some of the detainees who have been identified by ACHR members inside Ahwaz are as follows:

Seyed Ghasem Mousawi
Fazel Shamousy
Sohrab Moghadam
Karim Mojadam
Mohammad Temas
Seyed Jasem Rahmani
Majed Cheldawi
Seyed Hamood Rahmani
Hatam Sawari
Jafar Hezbawi
Ahmad Hezbawi
Aref Nasseri
Esameh Temas
Ahmad Temas
Jasem Koroshat
Jafar Abidawi
Ahmad Bawi
Ali Shajeerat
Jemil Heidari
Majed Heidari
Ahmad Hemreh
Ali Sawari
Mostafa Sawari
Khaled Obidawi
Abbas Heidari
Mortezah Yassin
Wally Amiri
Sadegh Heidari
Jalal Nebhani
Ali Sawari
Hamdan Afrawi
Ahmad Amin
Shani Shamousy
Khalil Silawi
Fars Shamousy
Ali Mazraeh
Sajad Silawi
Jawad Badwi
Samir Silawi
Riaz Shamousy
Jamil Silawi
Sadegh Silawi
Ali Heidari
Yousef Khasraji
Jawad Hashemi
Alireza Drees
Maher Masoudi
Seyed Jalil Mousawi
Essa Badwi
Hadi Abdawi
Seyed Sadegh Mousawi
Ahmad Heidari
Riaz Zehiri
Farhan Shamousy
Mohammad Amouri
Naeem Heidari
Aref Ghazlawi
Kazem Ghazlawi
Ali Al-haee
Khaled Silawi
Mokhtar Masoudi
Ali Al-baji
Mohammad Masoudi
Jader Afrawi
Aghil Shamousy
Abbas Badwi
Mohsen Badwi
Shaker Sawari
Mahmood Doraghi
Aziz Hamidawi
Omid Bechari
Noori Neisi
Hussein Heidari
Adnan Sawari
Zamol Heidari
Majed Sawari
Ali Sawari
Mohammad Sawari
Ali Mazbani-Nasr
Ahmad Kazem Koroshat
Ramin Bechari
Jemil Ahmadpoor
Fahad Neisi
Amir Afrawi
Ali Afrawi
Ghasem Kaebawi
Danial Adel
Moosa Mazraeh
Abdulrahim Kharaji
Mehdi Mazraeh
Ahmad Sweedi
Adnan Mazraeh
Hassan Herbawi
Ali Sweedi
Faez Afrawi
Mohammad-Amin Afrawi
Abbas Moghinami
Mortezah bait Shekh Ahmad
Mortezah Moghinami
Aref Moghinami
Lami Shamousy
Adel Afrawi
Mehdi Kuti
Ali Kuti
Satar Kuti
Ali Mansour
Ali Saaki
Abbas Saaki
Abo Shelan Saaki
Khazal Abbas Tamimi

We, Ahwazi Centre for Human Rights are calling on all human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and the European Parliament to address the situation of Ahwazi Arabs prisoners and put an end to torturing human rights and political prisoners and stop human rights violations towards Ahwazis and other non-Persian nations, human rights and political prisoners.

European Commission rejects Italy’s 2019 budget

Alexandre Lantier & Marianne Arens

Yesterday, the European Commission struck down the 2019 budget proposed by Italy’s far-right government, claiming that it violated Italy’s promises to the European Union (EU) to impose austerity, and demanding revisions. This is the first time that the EU Commission has ever demanded that an EU member state rewrite and resubmit its budget to the EU.

A violent struggle is set to unfold on the summits of European bourgeois politics, as both pro-EU and far-right populist forces fight to impose their version of austerity while trying to avert a financial panic that could provoke an Italian and global market crash. The central question is a perspective for independent political opposition by the working class, uniting workers struggles against austerity in Italy and across Europe. The EU austerity diktat and neo-fascist Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini’s nationalist demagogy are equally right-wing and hostile to the workers.

On October 18, the EU issued a letter denouncing Salvini’s “People’s Budget” as a “significant deviation” from previous plans, and demanding clarifications. While Salvini’s austerity budget is within the deficit limits of the EU’s Maastricht criteria, it sets out a deficit three times as high as the 0.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) pledged by the previous Italian government.

The EU letter triggered a sell-off in bond markets, and Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici pledged “constructive dialog” with Rome in order to prevent a crash. With Italian banks already holding an estimated €260 billion in bad loans from the last crash in 2008, Credit Suisse AG estimated that Italy’s banking system would face “unsustainable pressure” if Italian bonds fell to the point that they were paying 4 percent more interest than German bonds. This nearly happened on October 19, when the so-called “spread” over German bonds reached 3.41 percent.

Despite Moscovici’s pledges, the EU Commission again denounced the Italian budget yesterday and formally demanded that it be rewritten in line with the EU austerity diktat. “Unfortunately the clarifications were not convincing to change our earlier conclusions of particularly serious non-compliance,” said EU Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis yesterday. “The Italian government is consciously and openly going against commitments made. … It is tempting to cure debt with more debt, but at some point the debt weighs too heavy.”

The Commission’s decision bucked a statement on Monday by Portugal’s Mario Centeno, the new head of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. Centeno had praised Rome’s responses to the EU as “constructive” and predicted a deal would be reached.

The Italian government now has three weeks to rewrite and resubmit its budget or face billions of euros in EU fines.

Italian officials are issuing calls for nationalist resistance to Brussels, while signaling that a deal might be reached with the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. Salvini, the regime strongman, declared: “This doesn’t change anything, let the speculators be reassured, we’re not going back. They’re not attacking a government but a people. These are things that will anger Italians even more. And then people complain that the popularity of the European Union is at its lowest!”

Deputy Prime Minister Luigi di Maio of the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) wrote on Facebook: “This is the first Italian budget that the EU doesn’t like. I am not surprised. This is the first Italian budget that was written in Rome and not in Brussels.”

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte sounded a more cautious note, however. While he said that Rome has “no Plan B” for another budget, he added: “We are ready to reduce, maybe, to operate a spending review if necessary.” Conte told Bloomberg News that he has “some leeway to tweak aspects” of the budget, but that if he were asked to change the substance of the budget, “it will be difficult for me because I cannot accept that.”

In fact, furious behind-the-scenes discussions are doubtless taking place in Rome over how to reach an accommodation with Brussels. The ruling alliance between the M5S and Salvini’s Lega party has already cut deals with the EU, notably ditching its proposed economy minister, anti-euro economist Paolo Savona, in the spring. This weekend, Lega official and Italian Cabinet Undersecretary Giancarlo Giorgetti stated that Rome could not ignore systemic risk to the financial system.

Powerful forces in the European bourgeoisie are also seeking to arrange an austerity deal in Rome, working—as they did with the Syriza government of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras—through talks between the EU and the national government. This strategy was laid out yesterday by the German financial daily Handelsblatt in its article, “The sound of not criticizing Italy.”

Handelsblatt wrote, “That deafening silence you’re hearing in Berlin is the sound of German VIPs not (yet) talking openly about Italy. Sure, everybody from Chancellor Angela Merkel on down is worried that we may be on the verge of Euro Crisis 2.0. ... But German pols also know that the worst thing right now is for Germans to be doing the criticizing. That would just dare Rome’s governing populists on left and right. … Under the banner of defying German tyranny, they would leap even further over the cliff of budget insanity. So the talking-to must come from Brussels, not Berlin.”

Whatever maneuvers are planned by various factions of the European ruling elite, however, a major political breakdown is unfolding. With Britain set to exit the EU in March, talks over how to handle Italy’s budget deficits and its €2.4 trillion debt pile (130 percent of Italy’s GDP) have again exposed the unviability of the political and financial foundations of European capitalism.

After a decade of economic disintegration and vindictive EU austerity since the 2008 Wall Street crash, Italy’s economy is still smaller than it was before the crash. And across Europe, states are sinking into debt, financed by massive money-printing from the European Central Bank, without which they would be effectively bankrupt. Heavily indebted states include not only Italy but Greece (180 percent of GDP), Portugal (126 percent), Spain (99 percent) and France (98 percent). Even Germany, at 63 percent of GDP, is indebted over the 60 percent Maastricht limit.

With official unemployment still at 9.7 percent (31 percent for youth), social anger in Italy is explosive. The EU’s own “Generation What” poll, which found last year that most European youth want to participate in a mass uprising against the social order, showed that nearly two-thirds of Italian youth want to join such an uprising.

The central issue facing workers and youth in Italy is the turn to the European working class. The collective industrial and social strength of the working class across Europe must be mobilized in a struggle to bring down the capitalist system, which is financially and politically bankrupt.

Salvini’s nationalist blustering, his demagogic “People’s Budget” and his behind-the-scenes talks with the EU are nothing but a neo-fascist trap for the masses. While he builds up a vast police state apparatus in order to carry out mass deportations of hundreds of thousands of immigrants, Salvini is implementing his own version of austerity. His budget pledges billions of euros for the military, the police-state build-up, and business tax breaks, while providing a miserly €780 per month “basic income” for all Italian citizens, who would then be forced to work in order to receive that income.

The ultimate targets of Salvini’s maneuvers are not only refugees and immigrant workers, but growing social opposition to austerity in the entire working class of Italy.