7 Jan 2020

Will Russia become the brother in arms with Iran?

Punsara Amarasinghe

The killing of Iranian leader of famous Quds force Gen.Qasem Soleimani in Bagdad seems to have made an apocalyptic move in the beginning of this new decade as some critics have already viewed this incident similar to the the assassination of Austrian crown prince Duke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo which paved the path to the First World War in 1914. Perhaps, the assumption could be an exaggeration with the balance of power in the world in early 20th century and now, but certainly the aftermath consequences of death of Soleimani could escalate severe political turmoil that might lead to a grave crisis. The deteriorating relations between Iran and the US in past months have clearly suggested that the killing of Soleimani was not entirely an abrupt situation, but a culminating act of a serious of disturbing events between the two countries. The statement issued by Iranian supreme leader vowing to revenge indicates the wounded pride of a nation, yet the it is disputable whether Iran would retaliate without concerning the strength of the US war machinery that could bring catastrophic effects to the whole country. However, it is a fact beyond doubt, Iran is a regional power with a strong war machinery which has been trained for any military encounter for years and this military and technological sophistication have made Iran a unique example from any country that the US had gone to war since the end of Second World War. But, it seems to indicate that Iran is likely to choose asymmetrical escalation through using proxies or small group attack on American targets to deter Washington.
On the other hand, the main assumption that has fascinated many armchair critics is that Russia will unconditionally assist Iran in any military campaign against the USA. This argument can be bolstered by examining the political affinity between Teheran and Moscow in the recent past. In particular, when Iran was threatened by Trump in last May, it was Moscow who made an official statement in supporting Teheran and also Russia is clearly aware of the importance of keeping Iranian regime without allowing external forces to cripple it, because Iranian stability is a paramount factor of deterring the US and its involvement in the middle east. More importantly both Moscow and Tehran have strengthened their ties for common cause of protecting Assad’s regime in Syria. Furthermore, Russia’s recent involvement in global politics from its relative passivism during Yeltsin’s era have given a signal to its ultimate ambition becoming a global player. This agenda was brought by president Putin in 2007 in his Munich speech showing his antipathy over a “unipolar” world, in other words his denial of US domination in word politics. The audacious conduct of Iran and its military mechanism as a strong state is Russia’s major knight in the Middle East that Moscow does not want to lose. In fact, it was just several days before the killing of Soleimani Iranian, Russian and Chinese naval forces conducted a joint naval exercise in Gulf of Oman. Also deceased general Soleimani was regarded by Moscow as an astute strategist who played a cardinal role in making Russian military presence when Syrian army was in a decaying stage in 2015. Russia’s air strikes finally changed the game and Soleimani made one more visit to Moscow in 2017, this reportedly was to discuss Russia’s bilateral cooperation with Sunni monarchies in Persian Gulf. This background is a good evidence to suggest the dismay of Iranian general to a major blow to Moscow as a loss of a shrewd strategic thinker who could have been further used as a proxy for Russian involvement in the middle east.
However, still it is bit of a hyperbolic assumption to think that Moscow would directly lead her armies to support Iran or encouraging such a military confrontation between the US and Iran. Regardless Moscow has been vociferous in criticising the macho gesture of Trump administration for killing Soleimani, so far it has maintained its silence of what Russia will really do about it. Unconditional military pact with Tehran seems to be a fancy idea to revive old Soviet super power status as how it protected Cuba, yet the political reality piercing Moscow is something bitter. It convinces that any military confrontation Teheran world launch against the US will be devastating blow that would simply weaken the Iranian regime and this will lead to undermine Iran’s role in supporting Assad’s regime. Furthermore, the rapport built by Moscow in the Middle East with Iranian rivals such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and even Israel can be come adversaries again leading to an unmitigated disaster of Putin’s grand strategy of keeping ties with American allies in the middle east. These circumstances will create twilight scenario to assess any possible moves by Moscow. Another notable factor emerged after the death of Soleimani is the rapid increase of the oil price as the price of a barrel jumped from 2 US dollars to 69 US dollars and being one of prime oil producers this situation has created a sudden financial benefit for Russia. All in all, Russia’s next move would not definitely be a blatant military assistance to Teheran as a brother in arms. But, Russia is likely to play a key role through its diplomatic means to impede any crisis that would be detrimental to its ally Iran.

Capitalism and the Gut-Wrenching Hijack of India

Colin Todhunter

In India, the ‘development’ paradigm is premised on moving farmers out of agriculture and into the cities to work in construction, manufacturing or the service sector, despite these sectors not creating anything like the number of jobs required. The aim is to displace the existing labour-intensive system of food and agriculture with one dominated by a few transnational corporate agri-food giants which will then control the sector. Agriculture is to be wholly commercialised with large-scale, mechanised (monocrop) enterprises replacing family-run farms that help sustain hundreds of millions of rural livelihoods while feeding the urban masses.
Renowned journalist P Sainath encapsulates what is taking place when he says that the agrarian crisis can be explained in just five words: hijack of agriculture by corporations. He notes the process by which it is being done in five words too: predatory commercialisation of the countryside. And he takes five works to describe the outcome: biggest displacement in our history.
Why would anyone sanction this and set out to run down what is effectively a productive system of agriculture that feeds people, sustains livelihoods and produces sufficient buffer stocks?
Part of the answer comes down to India being the largest recipient of World Bank loans in the history of that institution and acting on its directives. Part of it results from the corporate-driven US-Indo Knowledge Agreement on Agriculture. On both counts, it means India’s rulers are facilitating the needs of Western capital and all it entails: an inherently predatory economic model based on endless profit growth, crises of overproduction and over-accumulation and market saturation and a need to constantly seek out, create and expand into new, untapped (foreign) markets to maintain profitability.
And as a market for proprietary seeds, chemical inputs and agricultural technology and machinery, India is vast. The potential market for herbicide growth alone for instance is huge: sales could reach USD 800 million by 2019 with scope for even greater expansion. And with restrictions on GMOs in place in Europe and elsewhere, India is again regarded as a massive potential market. And it’s the same for Western food processers and retailers too; the entire sector will be captured from seed to plate.
Saving capitalism
Of course, this trend predates the current administration, but it is as if Modi was especially groomed to accelerate the role of foreign capital in India. Describing itself as a major global communications, stakeholder engagement and business strategy company, APCO Worldwide is a lobby agency with firm links to the Wall Street/corporate US establishment and facilitates its global agenda. Modi turned to APCO to help transform his image and turn him into electable pro-corporate PM material. It also helped him get the message out that what he achieved in Gujarat as Chief Minister was a miracle of economic neoliberalism, although the actual reality is quite different.
A few years ago, APCO stated that India’s resilience in weathering the global downturn and financial crisis has made governments, policy makers, economists, corporate houses and fund managers believe that the country can play a significant role in the recovery of global capitalism.
Decoded, this means capital moving into regions and nations and displacing indigenous systems of production and consumption. Where agriculture is concerned, this hides behind emotive and seemingly altruistic rhetoric about ‘helping farmers’ and the need to ‘feed a burgeoning population’ (regardless of the fact this is exactly what India’s farmers have been doing).
Modi has been on board with this aim and has proudly stated that India is now one of the most ‘business friendly’ countries in the world. What he really means is that India is in compliance with World Bank directives on ‘ease of doing business’ and enabling the business of agriculture by facilitating further privatisation of public enterprises, environment-destroying policies and forcing working people to take part in a race to the bottom based on free’ market fundamentalism.
APCO has described India as a trillion-dollar market. It talks about positioning international funds and facilitating corporations’ ability to exploit markets, sell products and secure profit. None of this is a recipe for national sovereignty, let alone food security. For instance, renowned agronomist MS Swaminathan has stated: “Independent foreign policy is only possible with food security. Therefore, food has more than just eating implications. It protects national sovereignty, national rights and national prestige.”
Despite such warnings, India’s agrarian base is being uprooted. When agri-food corporations say they need to expand the use of GMOs or other technologies or invest in India under the guise of feeding the world or ‘modernising’ the sector, they’re really talking about capturing the market that’s still controlled by peasant agriculture or small-scale enterprises. To get those markets they first need to displace the peasantry and local independent producers.
Politicians are clever at using poor management, bad administration and overblown or inept enterprises as an excuse for privatisation and deregulation. Margaret Thatcher was an expert at this: if something does not work correctly because of bad management, privatise it; underinvest in something, make it seem like a basket case and sell it; pump up a sector with public funds to turn it into a profitable, efficient enterprise then sell it off to the private sector. The tactics take many forms.
And Indian agriculture has witnessed gross underinvestment over the years, whereby it is now wrongly depicted as a basket case and underperforming and ripe for a sell off to those very interests who had a stake in its underinvestment.
Historian Michael Perelman has detailed the processes that whipped the English peasantry into a workforce ‘willing’ to accept factory wage labour. Peasants were forced to leave their land and go to work for below-subsistence wages in dangerous factories being set up by a new, rich class of industrial capitalists. Perelman describes the policies through which peasants were forced out of agriculture, not least by the barring of access to common land. A largely self-reliant population was starved of its productive means.
Today, we hear seemingly benign terms like ‘foreign direct investment’ and making India ‘business friendly’, but behind the rhetoric lies the hard-nosed approach of modern-day capitalism that is no less brutal for Indian farmers than early industrial capitalism was for English peasants. The intention is for India’s displaced cultivators to be retrained to work as cheap labour in the West’s offshored plants. India is to be a fully incorporated subsidiary of global capitalism, with its agri-food sector restructured for the needs of global supply chains and a reserve army of labour that effectively serves to beat workers and unions in the West into submission.
India’s spurt of high GDP growth was partly fueled on the back of cheap food and the subsequent impoverishment of farmers: the gap between farmers’ income and the rest of the population has widened enormously. While under-performing corporations receive massive handouts and have loans written off, the lack of a secure income, exposure to international market prices and cheap imports contribute to farmers’ misery of not being able to cover the costs of production.
As independent cultivators are bankrupted, the aim is that land will eventually be amalgamated to facilitate large-scale industrial cultivation. Those who remain in farming will be absorbed into corporate supply chains and squeezed as they work on contracts dictated by large agribusiness and chain retailers.
The long-term plan is for an urbanised India with a fraction of the population left in farming working on contracts for large suppliers and Wal-Mart-type supermarkets that offer highly processed, denutrified, genetically altered food contaminated with chemicals and grown in increasingly degraded soils according to an unsustainable model of agriculture that is less climate/drought resistant, less diverse and unable to achieve food security. This would be disastrous for farmers, public health and local livelihoods.
The 2009 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development report recommended agroecology to maintain and increase the productivity of global agriculture. The recent UN High Level Panel of Experts report concludes that agroecology provides greatly improved food security and nutritional, gender, environmental and yield benefits compared to industrial agriculture. Both reports note the vital importance of smallholder farming.
India needs to adopt a rural-centric approach to development and resist being incorporated further into the globalised food regime dominated by Western agri-food conglomerates. It must move away from a narrowly defined notion of food security and embrace the concept of food sovereignty. This notion of food security has been designed and enacted by Western corporations that have promoted large-scale, industrialised corporate farming based on specialised production, land concentration and trade liberalisation. This has led to the widespread dispossession of small producers and global ecological degradation.
What we have witnessed is an international system of chemical-dependent, agro-export mono-cropping and big infrastructure projects linked to loans, sovereign debt repayment and World Bank/IMF directives, the outcomes of which have included a displacement of the peasantry, the consolidation of global agri-food oligopolies and the transformation of many countries into food deficit regions.
Across the world, we have seen a change in farming practices towards mechanised industrial-scale chemical-intensive monocropping and the undermining or eradication of rural economies, traditions and cultures. We see the ‘structural adjustment’ of regional agriculture, spiraling input costs for farmers who have become dependent on proprietary seeds and technologies and the destruction of food self-sufficiency.
In effect, we see a globalised ‘stuffed and starved’ food regime that benefits the rich countries at the expense of the poor. Given the ecological devastation, water resource depletion (and pollution), soil degradation and the dependency relations that form part of this system, global food security has been undermined.
Whether it involves the transformation of Africa from a net exporting food continent to a net importer or the devastating impacts of soy cultivation in Argentina, localised, traditional methods of food production have given way to global supply chains dominated by policies which favour agri-food giants, resulting in the imposition of a model of agriculture that subjugates remaining farmers and regions to the needs and profit margins of these companies.
Food sovereignty
On the other hand, food sovereignty encompasses the right to healthy and culturally appropriate food and the right of people to define their own food and agriculture systems. ‘Culturally appropriate’ is a nod to the foods people have traditionally produced and eaten as well as the associated socially embedded practices which underpin community and a sense of communality. But it goes beyond that.
People have a deep microbiological connection to soils, processing and fermentation processes which affect the gut microbiome – the up to six pounds of bacteria, viruses and microbes akin to human soil. And as with actual soil, the microbiome can become degraded according to what we ingest (or fail to ingest). Many nerve endings from major organs are located in the gut and the microbiome effectively nourishes them. There is ongoing research taking place into how the microbiome is disrupted by the modern globalised food production/processing system and the chemical bombardment it is subjected to.
Capitalism colonises (and degrades) all aspects of life but is colonising the very essence of our being – even on a physiological level. With their agrochemicals and food additives, powerful companies are attacking this ‘soil’ and with it the human body. As soon as we stopped eating locally-grown, traditionally-processed food, cultivated in healthy soils and began eating food subjected to chemical-laden cultivation and processing activities, we began to change ourselves. Along with cultural traditions surrounding food production and the seasons, we also lost our deep-rooted microbiological connection with our localities. We traded it in for corporate chemicals and seeds and global food chains dominated by the likes of Monsanto (now Bayer), Nestle and Cargill.
Aside from affecting the functioning of major organs, neurotransmitters in the gut affect our moods and thinking. Alterations in the composition of the gut microbiome have been implicated in a wide range of neurological and psychiatric conditions, including autism, chronic pain, depression and Parkinson’s Disease.
Science writer and neurobiologist Mo Costandi has discussed gut bacteria and their balance and importance in brain development. Gut microbes controls the maturation and function of microglia, the immune cells that eliminate unwanted synapses in the brain; age-related changes to gut microbe composition might regulate myelination and synaptic pruning in adolescence and could, therefore, contribute to cognitive development. Upset those changes and there are going to be serious implications for children and adolescents.
In addition, UK-based environmentalist Rosemary Mason notes that increasing levels of obesity are associated with low bacterial richness in the gut. Indeed, it has been noted that tribes not exposed to the modern food system have richer microbiomes. Mason lays the blame squarely at the door of agrochemicals, not least the use of the world’s most widely used herbicide, glyphosate, a strong chelator of essential minerals, such as cobalt, zinc, manganese, calcium, molybdenum and sulphate. Mason argues that it also kills off beneficial gut bacteria and allows toxic bacteria.
To ensure genuine food security (and good health), India must transition to a notion of food sovereignty based on optimal self-sufficiency, agroecological principles and local ownership and stewardship of common resources – land, water, soil, seeds, etc. Agroecology outperforms the prevailing resource-depleting, fossil-fuel dependent industrial food system in terms of diversity of food output, nutrition per acre, soil health and efficient water use.
Moreover, it is important to note that such a system would not be reliant on oil or natural gas. Virtually all of the processes in the modern food system are now dependent on finite fossil fuels, from the manufacture of fertilisers and pesticides to all stages of food production, including planting, irrigation, harvesting, processing, distribution, shipping and packaging. The industrial food supply system is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels.
A food system so heavily reliant on fossil fuel is fragile to say the least, especially given the geopolitical machinations that affect the supply and price of oil. Consider the UK, for instance, which has to import 40% of its food; and much of the rest depends on oil to produce it, which also has to be imported.
The scaling up of agroecology has the potential to more effectively tackle hunger, malnutrition, environmental degradation and climate change. By creating securely paid labour-intensive agricultural work, it can also address the interrelated links between labour offshoring by rich countries and the removal of rural populations elsewhere who end up in sweat shops to carry out the outsourced jobs.
The principles of agroecology include self-reliance and localisation. This model does not rely on shipping food over long distances, corporate owned or controlled seeds or proprietary inputs. It is potentially more climate resilient, profitable for farmers and can make a significant contribution to carbon storage (and draw down carbon from the atmosphere), water conservation, soil quality and nutrient-dense diets.
However, this represents a challenge to international capital: low input, agroecological models of food production and notions of independence and local self-reliance do not provide opportunities to global agribusiness or international funds to exploit markets, sell their products and cash in on APCO’s vision of a multi-billion-dollar corporate hijack of India.

Soleimani’s death opens a door to alternative security arrangements in the Gulf

James M. Dorsey

The US killing of Iranian general Qassim Soleimani has further opened the door to a potential restructuring of the Gulf’s security architecture.
In line with an Iranian plan launched at last year’s United Nations General Assembly by president Hassan Rouhani that calls for a security architecture that would exclude external forces, cooler heads in Tehran argue that an expulsion of all US troops from the Middle East would constitute revenge for Mr. Soleimani’s assassination.
While it likely would be a drawn-out process, Iraq’s parliament took a first step by unanimously asking the government in the absence of Kurdish and Sunni Muslim deputies to expel US forces from the country.
Ultimately, Iran may at best get only part of its wants.
Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has dialled back his initial support of parliament’s demand, saying that any withdrawal would involve only US combat forces and not training and logistical support for the Iraqi military.
Similarly, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar are unlikely to expel US forces and bases.
That does not mean that the foundation for the Gulf’s security architecture, grounded in a US defense umbrella primarily to shield the region’s energy-rich monarchies from potential Iranian aggression, is not shifting.
In fact, it was already shifting prior to the killing of Mr. Soleimani.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE that long supported US President Donald J. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, involving the US withdrawal from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program and the imposition of harsh economic sanctions, began hedging their bets in the second half of last year.
The Gulf may have on an emotive level privately celebrated the death of Mr. Soleimani, an architect of Iran’s use of proxies across the Middle East, but in a more rational analysis fear that his killing may have opened a Pandora’s box that could lead the region to all-out war.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE called for de-escalation in the wake of the killing as Khalid bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy defense minister and brother of crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, traveled to Washington and London to urge restraint.
Ironically, the killing of Mr. Soleimani rather than strategically pleasing Gulf leaders may have reinforced concerns that they no longer can fully rely on the United States as their sole security guarantor.
If the United States’ refusal last year to respond forcefully to a string of Iranian provocations sparked Gulf doubts, Mr. Soleimani’s killing raises the spectre of US overreach when it does.
Mr. Trump’s threat to attack Iranian cultural sites, despite animosity towards Iran and anti-Shiite sentiment in some Gulf quarters, is likely to have reinforced that concern.
The Gulf states’ hedging of their bets will not make Mr. Rouhani’s proposal any more attractive but it has already led to direct and indirect diplomacy by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce tension with Iran.
Mr. Soleimani was killed on the morning that he reportedly was to deliver to Mr. Abdul Mahdi, the Iraqi prime minister, a Iranian response to a Saudi initiative to defuse tension.
While Mr. Rouhani’s proposal is a non-starter, it contains one element that could prove to have legs: some form of non-aggression agreement or understanding between the Gulf states and Iran.
The notion of an understanding on non-aggression would stroke with a Russian proposal for an alternative multilateral arrangement that calls for a regional security conference along the lines of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE.
Unlike Mr. Rouhani’s proposition, the Russian proposal would involve multiple external powers, including Russia, China and India, but, in the knowledge that no country can as of now replace the United States militarily, be centred on US military muscle.
The proposal, endorsed by China, potentially could cater to Mr. Trump’s demand for burden-sharing and financial compensation for a continued US role in security across the globe.
Russian officials and surrogates for the Kremlin stress that the proposal seeks to capitalize on the United States’ mushrooming predicament in the Middle East but does not mean that Russia was willing to make the kind of commitment that would position it as an alternative to the US.
Similarly, the nature of China’s participation in last month’s first-ever joint Chinese-Russian-Iranian naval exercise signaled that closer Chinese military ties with a host of Middle Eastern nations did not translate into Chinese aspirations for a greater role in regional security any time soon.
China contributed elements of its anti-piracy fleet that were already in Somali waters to protect commercial vessels as well as peacekeeping and humanitarian relief personnel rather than combat troops.
As they hedge their bets, Gulf states may want to take their time in thinking about a more multilateral security arrangement that includes but goes beyond the United States.
The Gulf states’ problem is that fast-moving and to some degree unpredictable developments in the Middle East could change their calculus.
That is also true for Russia and particularly China that has long maintained that its security interests in the region, based on the ability to free-ride on the US defense umbrella, were best served by mutually beneficial economic and trade relations.
Increasingly that approach could prove unsustainable.
Said Jiang Xudong, a Middle East scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences: “Economic investment will not solve all other problems when there are religious and ethnic conflicts.”
Mr. Xudong could just as well have included power struggles and regional rivalries in his analysis.

Australia: Surveys reveal majority of former car workers unable to find decent jobs

Terry Cook

On October 20, 2017 all car production in Australia ended when General Motors-Holden closed its plant in Elizabeth, South Australia. The closure marked the end of 70 years of vehicle production in the country and destroyed the remaining 450 jobs in an industry that had once employed tens of thousands.
Just two weeks before the Elizabeth shut-down, Toyota closed its only remaining Australian production plant, located in the Melbourne suburb of Altona. A year earlier, Ford had wrapped up its remaining Australian production after a protracted period of downsizing and mass job shedding.
The ending of vehicle production was estimated to have cost a combined 50,000 jobs directly and across associated industries such as auto parts manufacturers.
The corporatised trade unions, working hand in glove with the companies and state and federal governments, Labor and Liberal alike, did everything they could to suppress widespread opposition to this destruction. Having played the major role in enforcing the gutting of jobs in the industry over the course of decades, the unions then peddled claims that “retraining” would mitigate the effects of the mass sackings.
These claims stand exposed as a fraud. Former centres of car production, such as Elizabeth in Adelaide and Broadmeadows in Melbourne, have been left mired in social crisis. Official unemployment rates are as high as 20 percent, while an entire generation of working class youth faces a future of joblessness and social misery.
Two surveys released last month reveal that the vast majority of former car workers, many of whom were employed in the industry for decades, have been unable to find alternative full-time employment, with decent wages and conditions. Instead they have been thrown into unemployment, or forced to take on precarious, low-paid casual and contract work.
The plight of the car-workers is the end product of a decades-long operation spearheaded by Labor and the unions. This began in the 1980s when the Australian Council of Trade Unions, and all of its affiliates, collaborated with the Hawke and Keating Labor governments to enforce “orderly closures,” across the car, steel and mining industries, and virtually every other sector of manufacturing.
This policy was the logical conclusion of the nationalist and pro-capitalist program of Labor and the unions. Under conditions of the globalisation of production, they dispensed with their earlier calls for limited reforms, and became the most ardent proponents of ensuring the “international competitiveness” of their “own” national industry through a continuous offensive against jobs, wages and conditions.
The unions enforced the closure of the industry, which was spearheaded by the federal Labor government of Julia Gillard. They championed calls for multi-million dollar subsidies to the car companies, on the pretext that this would save jobs, the same time as these major corporations were engaged in relentless downsizing. On the basis of such appeals, more than $12 billion in direct government subsidies and protections were handed over to the car industry giants over the 20 years to 2013.
The unions also peddled the lie that jobs could be saved if workers agreed to endless company demands for concessions including wage freezes, lower manning levels, speedups and the surrender of rafts of working conditions. Rather than preventing the closures, the consequence of this program was that the corporations made a profit bonanza, as they, along with unions, were preparing for the final liquidation of the entire industry.
At GM Holden, Toyota and Ford, the companies and unions initiated government-funded “retraining” schemes and job search assistance, as has been done in other industries where mass downsizing occurred. This was used as a means of hosing down the opposition of workers.
These schemes dovetailed with government funded programs that would supposedly generate a boom in other sectors of manufacturing and create thousands of jobs, as car production was wound down.
In 2013, the South Australian Labor government appointed former federal Labor minister and union chief Greg Combet to oversee this supposed “transition.” He received a $160,000 annual salary.
The November results of a survey of 950 former Holden workers on their employment situation after the closure of the Elizabeth plant demonstrates that these programs were sham. They were a boondoggle that enriched the corrupt union bureaucracy, while obscuring the social disaster caused by the car industry shutdown.
The survey showed that while 76.4 percent of the workers had found jobs, two thirds of these were in precarious lower paying part-time and casual employment. The remaining 23 percent are still without a job of any kind. They have little chance of ever finding one.
Another survey by consultants Acil Allen of displaced automotive workers from Ford, Holden and Toyota, conducted 12 months after the closures, found that of those interviewed, only 59 percent were in full-time work. Some 34 percent were employed as casuals. Another 5 percent were self-employed. Amid a rapid economic slowdown, such forms of work are highly precarious.
Similar joint operations by the car conglomerates, governments and the auto unions will be used internationally to try to head-off the emergence of a unified industrial and political movement by auto workers to the current round of job cuts.
In November, Daimler Mercedes-Benz announced it will slash more than 10,000 jobs over the next two years. German carmaker Audi, a subsidiary of Volkswagen, is set to eliminate 9,500 jobs over five years. Bosch is seeking to slash another 500 jobs at its facility in the city of Reutlingen. General Motors is closing four plants in the US and Canada and eliminating 8,000 jobs.
Under these conditions the car companies are relying on the unions, such as the United Auto Workers in the US and IG Metall in Germany, to contain and derail the growing resistance among auto workers internationally to an ongoing corporate assault on their conditions.
The lesson of the Australian car industry closure is that workers can only defend their jobs and their livelihoods through a rebellion against the unions. New organisations of struggle are required, including independent rank-and-file committees, to mobilise the immense social and political power of auto workers on a global scale.
Such committees would be tasked with turning out to other sections of the working class facing a similar offensive on their jobs and conditions and organising a genuine industrial and political counter-offensive. They would immediately confront major political issues, including the burning necessity to transform the car companies, and other major industries, into publicly-owned utilities, democratically controlled by the working class.

Tens of millions to join all-India one-day strike on Wednesday

Keith Jones

Tens, if not hundreds, of millions of workers and youth will participate in tomorrow’s India-wide one-day general strike.
The strike call was issued on September 30, 2019 by an alliance of the country’s principal trade union federations to protest the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s big business measures—social spending cuts, privatization, the promotion of precarious contract-labour jobs, the gutting of workplace and environmental regulations and further massive corporate tax cuts.
In the intervening three months, the BJP government has accelerated it class war offensive, turn to authoritarian methods of rule, promotion of Hindu supremacism and integration of India into Washington’s military-strategic offensive against China.
Indian workers on strike in Mumbai, on Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
The BJP government has tabled legislation to “streamline” and “modernize” India’s labour laws into four new labour codes. Among other changes, these would empower companies to employ workers on fire-at-will contracts, place new restrictions on the right to strike and establish workplace organizations and gut India’s already woefully lax and inadequate system of factory inspections.
The Modi government is responding to a mounting clamour from global capital and domestic big business for it to do more to boost India’s competitiveness, i.e. investor profits, amid a pronounced slowdown of the country’s economy. Consumer demand, industrial production, and exports are all faltering. According to the Centre of Monitoring the Indian Economy, there were 73 million jobless in India in December and the jobless rate of 7.7 percent was close to a 45-year high.
Ten central labour federations and various independent unions, which together represent large sections of workers, from coal miners and port workers to bank employees, will participate in Wednesday’s strike. Politically, however, the one-day protest strike is being led by the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) and the All India Trades Union Congress (AITUC), the labour affiliates of the twin Stalinist parliamentary parties, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM and the Communist Party of India (CPI).
For decades, the Stalinists have functioned as a critical part of the Indian political establishment, whose special function is to contain, defuse and suppress working class opposition. This includes, in the name of thwarting the Hindu supremacist BJP, supporting a succession of right-wing big business governments from 1989 to 2008. Today, under conditions where the bourgeoisie is demonstrably breaking with democratic-constitutional forms of rule, the Stalinists are seeking to shackle the working class to the putrefying parties and institutions of the Indian state.
Even while they denounce the Modi government as “fascist,” the Stalinists insist that it can be pressured into dropping its “anti-worker, anti-people and anti-national policies” by working in tandem with the right-wing opposition parties and their various labour fronts, such as the Indian National Trades Union Congress (INTUC) and the DMK-aligned Labour Progressive Federation.
The INTUC is the trade union wing of the Congress Party, which until recently was the Indian ruling elite’s principal party of national government. Congress spearheaded both the Indian bourgeoisie’s post-1991 drive to make India a cheap-labor haven for global capital and its forging of a “global strategic partnership” with US imperialism.
Late last month, the unions added to a long list of socio-economic demands a call for the BJP government to rescind its anti-Muslim Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Rushed through parliament and into law in just four days last month, the CAA makes religion a criterion for determining citizenship, for the first-time ever in independent India. Moreover, it is meant to pave the way for an all-India National Register of Citizens (NRC) whose transparent purpose will be to harass and intimidate the Muslim minority in the name of identifying and expelling “illegal migrants.”
Since the CAA came into law on December 12, India has been convulsed by the biggest wave of mass protests in decades. Often mounted in defiance of brutal police repression, these protests have touched all parts of the country and cut across the communal, caste and ethnic divisions that India’s venal ruling elite has systematically cultivated with the aim of dividing the working class.
The sudden eruption of mass opposition has shaken the BJP national and state governments. They have responded with lethal repression, internet and cell phone shut-offs, blanket bans of all public gatherings of more than four people under the notorious British colonial-authored Section 144 of India’s Criminal Code and by further stoking communalism.
The outburst of popular opposition to the CAA, itself only the latest in the long series of BJP government provocations against India’s Muslim minority, will undoubtedly swell the participation in Wednesday’s general strike, helping draw in students and sections of the rural and urban poor. Organizations of peasants and agricultural workers associated with the twin Stalinist parliamentary parties have called for a “Grameen Bandh” or rural strike on Wednesday.
As more perceptive Indian commentators have recognized, anger over mass joblessness, under-employment and contract jobs, endemic poverty, and India’s transformation into one of the worlds’ most socially unequal societies, have contributed to the breadth and tenacity of the anti-CAA movement.
Recent months have seen a wave of workers’ struggles. These include a massive one-day strike last September by hundreds of thousands of coal miners protesting the government’s privatization plans, and a 52-day strike by 48,000 Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TSRTC) workers against the plans of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi state government to sell-off much or all of the intra-city bus service.
The TSRTC workers courageously defied police repression and government threats to fire them en masse. But, as has happened time and again over the past three decades, the unions, with the Stalinists’ support, isolated the TSRTC workers’ struggle, while encouraging them to make futile appeals to the courts, opposition parties and even the Modi government to intervene on their behalf.
There have also been strikes and protests against job cuts, especially in India’s globally-connected auto industry. Hundreds of thousands of autoworkers have been laid off or had their contracts terminated in recent months.
Since early November, thousands of workers laid off from Honda Motorcycle and Scooter’s Manesar, Haryana plant have been protesting outside the plant, forcing the company to temporarily halt production. On December 1, thousands of workers from across the Manesar-Gurgaon industrial belt, which lies on the outskirts of Indian’s capital, Delhi, joined a demonstration protesting the government-promoted proliferation of poorly-paid, precarious contract labour jobs.
The president of the Bellsonica Auto Component India Employees Union, Jasbir Singh, told the Newsclick website that contract workers have borne the brunt of the employers’ drive to make workers pay for a sharp downturn in sales. “In the Gurgaon-Manesar region well over 2.5 lakh (250,000) workers have been laid off … The ones not laid off are facing major cuts in wages.”
Wednesday’s strike will undoubtedly provide an occasion for tens of millions of workers and youth to voice their opposition to the Modi government and will, albeit only in a limited way, attest to the enormous social power of the working class.
However for the Stalinist CPM and CPI and their union apparatuses the strike is political theatre. Over the past quarter century, they have called 19 one or two-day general strikes, while working as the left-flank of the capitalist establishment—much of that time, including today, in open alliance with the Congress Party.
Significantly, the unions’ demands make no mention of India’s military-strategic alliance with US imperialism, nor voice any opposition to the India’s bourgeoisie’s vast military build-up, and bellicose drive to establish itself as the regional hegemon. The unions do, however, decry the government’s moves to privatize parts of the defence sector as “a betrayal of national interests.”
Also, conspicuously absent from the unions’ list of demands is any call for the freedom of the 13 Maruti Suzuki workers who have been jailed for life on frame-up murder charges for having led militant opposition to a brutal work regime and contract labour jobs. The Stalinist parties and the CITU and AITUC have callously abandoned the Maruti Suzuki workers because they fear their militant example and because the exposure of the role of the police, courts, and Congress Party in the workers’ frame-up would disrupt their own cozy relations with the political establishment and big business.
Underscoring, the orientation of the CITU, AITUC, and all the unions, their top officials rushed to meet BJP Labour Minister Santosh Gangwar last week when he invited them for a meeting. Later they lamented that this representative of the ultra right-wing BJP government wasn’t interested in serious dialogue. A key union demand is that the government reinstitute annual meetings of the tripartite Indian Labour Conference, which has not met since 2015.

Transatlantic digital tax trade war looms

Nick Beams

France has warned the US that the European Union (EU) will retaliate if Washington goes ahead with a plan to levy tariffs on French luxury products in response to its imposition of a digital tax on high-tech companies such as Google.
The warning came as a consultation period in the US on the proposed 100 percent tariffs on French products such as champagne, handbags and cheese, announced in early December, draws to a close.
In a letter to US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer on January 3, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that “if the US were to decide to impose trade sanctions against the EU over the French Digital Services Tax, it would deeply and durably affect the transatlantic relationship at a time when we need to stand united.”
The proposed sanctions were “highly disproportionate” and their impact on French companies and workers would “far exceed” that of the digital tax on US companies, he continued.
He noted that France was in contact with the European Commission and other EU member states on the issue, and that they were “contemplating the various options to defend our trade rights in a proportionate and determined manner, as we have in the past.”
France is not the only EU member state involved. The Italian parliament has passed legislation, effective from the beginning of this year, similar to the French measures. It imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue for companies with more than €750 million in global revenue. The UK government of Boris Johnson has also indicated it is looking to impose a similar tax, and Austria and Turkey are considering setting their own levies.
The conflict arises because digital companies such as Google and Facebook, while deriving considerable revenue from their international operations, pay very little tax in those countries because their profits are recorded in the US.
The issue is the subject of negotiations, including the US, being conducted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on a new uniform international tax regime.
In the interim, the French government said it would impose a levy to capture some of the revenue generated in France in advance of the uniform scheme coming into effect. It added that if its tax collections were above what was finally agreed upon, it would refund the difference.
But the OECD process appears to have been effectively overturned by decisions made in Washington in early December. USTR Lighthizer issued a 93-page report on the French tax and said he was considering retaliation against what he said was the “growing protectionism” of European countries that “unfairly targets US companies.”
In his letter, Le Maire said the current French tax did not discriminate against US companies, was compliant with World Trade Organisation rules, and would be withdrawn once agreement was reached under the OECD on an international tax system.
However, in a letter to OECD Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría on December 3, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin cast considerable doubt on whether the US would continue to participate in any meaningful manner in the OECD process to devise a new tax agreement.
He said the United States firmly opposed digital services taxes because they had a “discriminatory impact” on US businesses and were inconsistent with current international tax rules, which tax net income rather than gross revenue.
The outlook of the administration was expressed more crudely by President Trump, who told a news conference in early December that he did not want France taxing American companies. He declared, “People take advantage of American companies. If anyone is going to take advantage of our companies, it is us.”
In an interview on the US business channel CNBC on December 3, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the French tax move stemmed from its envy of the US grip on high-tech services and innovation.
“Europe doesn’t have the real high-tech champions and real e-commerce champions that we have,” he said. “There’s a tremendous amount of jealousy about that.”
Ross countered the claim by French President Emmanuel Macron that the tax was not an anti-US move. “It’s hard to say that it wasn’t designed as an anti-American move,” he said. “The criteria, whether designed deliberately or not, essentially include only American companies.”
In line with these more bellicose pronouncements, Mnuchin’s letter effectively undermined the whole OECD approach.
He said the US side had “serious concerns” about departures from long-standing pillars of the international taxation system upon which US taxpayers (that is, corporations) rely. However, these concerns could be addressed if the proposed OECD measures were made a “safe harbour regime.”
This would mean that US firms could choose the regime under which they are presently taxed, effectively spiking the OECD approach for a unified system.
Replying to Mnuchin on December 4, Gurría noted that to a “large degree” it was US tax reform that set the agenda within which the OECD had advanced, and that it was Mnuchin’s “personal involvement” and his interventions at G20 meetings that “steered the international community away from seeking a narrow digital solution” and moved us “beyond the tax rules as they currently stand.”
He emphasised that the OECD proposed a “unified approach,” without which “there would be no conditions for achieving a consensus.” While the letter was couched in diplomatic language, it made clear that, as set out in the Mnuchin letter, the US had changed the entire framework of the negotiations with its proposal for an opt-out tax regime.
Gurría wrote that “throughout the extensive consultation process…we had not come across the notion” that the OECD system “could be a safe-harbour regime.” This concern was being raised, he continued, because it “may impact the ability of the 135 countries that are now participating in the process.”
The office of the USTR is set to hold a public meeting on the tariffs on French goods today, and it will continue to collect public comments until January 14, after which, if neither side backs down, the conflict over the digital tax is likely to become, in the words of the Financial Times, “a wider transatlantic trade war this year.”

Iranian-Americans detained at US-Canada border in wake of Suleimani assassination

Benjamin Mateus

Shortly after President Donald Trump’s brazen criminal assassination of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani on January 3, the Department of Homeland Security began ramping up security at military bases and border crossings. These moves are aimed at boosting support for war against Tehran by whipping up anti-Iranian sentiment and fanning fears of a possible retaliatory attack by Iran inside the United States.
As part of this crackdown more than 60 travelers who are Iranian-American citizens or green card holders traveling from Canada into the US were detained by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Saturday at the Peace Arch Border Crossing in Blaine, Washington. They were all held there for several hours, subject to illegal detention and interrogation before being allowed to return to their own country.
Those who were detained reported that their passports were taken from them while they waited, leaving them with no legal means of leaving the border crossing. Once they were called up for questioning by CBP agents they were asked about the names of relatives and where they live and men were asked if they had ever served in the Iranian armed forces.
Negah Hekmati, a 38-year-old interior decorator and US citizen born in Iran, relayed to the Los Angeles Times how she, her husband and two children were detained and questioned after returning from a skiing trip in British Columbia. While they all held Nexus cards in addition to their American passports, meaning they had already been pre-screened by CBP, they were still pulled in for hours of detention and questioning.
Negah Hekmati speaks about her hours-long delay returning to the U.S. from Canada with her family, during a news conference in Seattle on Monday, January 6. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Hekmati told the Times that her children were afraid to fall asleep out of the fear that their parents would be taken away from them. “They shouldn’t experience such things,” Hekmati said. “They are US citizens.”
In another case, a Canadian citizen who was born in Iran, Sam Sadr, told Politico that he and his family were traveling to Seattle when they were detained at the border for more than eight hours after a US border agent took note that his passport indicated he was born in Tehran.
The Washington state chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations reported in a statement that it received information of source at US Customs and Border Protection that DHS sent out a national directive to agents to “‘report’ and detain anyone with Iranian heritage entering the country who is deemed potentially suspicious or ‘adversarial,’ regardless of citizenship status.”
An official statement released by CBP denied that Iranian-Americans or others of Iranian origin were being detained and questioned “because of their country of origin.” CBP spokesman Jason Givens reiterated this position on Monday, insisting that Iranian-Americans had never been detained or denied entry into the US. However, CBP did admit to Roll Call that the agency was “operating with an enhanced posture” in response to a DHS warning about a possible Iranian counter-attack.
A National Terrorism Advisory System alert published on January 4 warned that Iran is capable of carrying out attacks on “critical infrastructure” in the US and declared that “an attack in the homeland may come with little or no warning.”
Rather than keeping Americans safe, these warnings are intended to provoke and provide the state the cause to begin the implementation of emergency measures whereby censorship, spying, and other coercive actions can be openly instituted.
Wide-scale attacks by the government on US citizens in violation of their constitutional rights is not without precedent.
Between 1942 and 1946, the Roosevelt administration, under the authority of a presidential executive order, interned more than 120,000 Japanese-Americans across the country without trial during World War II. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, DC on September 11, 2001 were utilized to justify spying on Muslim-Americans and entrapping suggestible young men in phony terror plots along with the expansion of mass electronic surveillance of the entire population.
It is not a far stretch to assume that the Trump administration will utilize emergency powers, justified by a war against Iran, to detain Americans of Iranian descent and crack down on political dissent more generally.
The US has the largest population of Iranians and those of Iranian ancestry outside of Iran. By 2012, an estimated 1.5 million Iranians lived in the US with the largest concentration, approximately 300,000, living in Los Angeles.

European governments defend US state terrorism following assassination of Iranian General Suleimani

Peter Schwarz

Washington’s targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Suleimani has evoked opposition and horror within the European population. This criminal act of state terrorism threatens to plunge the Middle East into yet another bloodbath—one that could drag the entire world into a nuclear inferno. Trump issues new threats on a daily basis, which, like the threat to destroy Iranian cultural sites, are war crimes both under international and American law.
But the European governments have issued no criticism of the criminal actions of their alliance partner, which increasingly resemble those of Adolf Hitler on the eve of World War II. While these governments have called for de-escalation, they have refused to condemn as a war crime the targeted killing of a high-ranking representative of a sovereign country. Instead, they have directed their fire on Iran. Although they view Trump’s action as a tactical mistake, they are preparing to support the United States in the event of war.
The first joint statement issued by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, released two days after the assassination, begins with an attack on Iran and the murder victim, Suleimani.
French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (AP Photo/Francois Mori)
“We have condemned the recent attacks on coalition forces in Iraq and are gravely concerned by the negative role Iran has played in the region, including through the IRGC and the al-Quds force under the command of General Suleimani,” states the opening paragraph.
This is followed by an appeal for de-escalation: “We call on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and responsibility. The current cycle of violence in Iraq must be stopped.”
But the murder of Suleimani, which amounts to a declaration of war by the United States on Iran, a country with a population as large as Germany’s, is not even mentioned, let alone condemned. Instead, the statement continues: “We specifically call on Iran to refrain from further violent action or proliferation, and urge Iran to reverse all measures inconsistent with the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran which the US unilaterally abandoned in 2018].”
Johnson rushed to assure Trump by telephone that Suleimani was “a threat to all our interests,” adding that “we will not lament his death.”
Macron telephoned Trump the same day and promised his “full solidarity with our ally in light of the attacks carried out over recent months against coalition interests in Iraq,” according to an official statement released by the Élysée Palace.
Macron “expressed his concern about the destabilising activities of the al-Quds Force under the authority of General Qassem Suleimani and recalled the necessity for Iran to end them immediately and refrain from any military escalation that could deepen instability in the region.” He also “stressed France’s determination to cooperate with its regional and international partners towards an easing of tensions.”
The German government issued similar statements. In the Bild am Sonntag newspaper, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas accused the murdered Suleimani of “having left a trail of blood and devastation throughout the Middle East.” He added, “The EU had good reason to have him on its terrorist list.”
Iran responded by summoning the German ambassador and complained of “untrue, inappropriate and destructive statements,” as well as support for Washington’s “terrorist attack.”
While Berlin, Paris and London justify US state terrorism, they seek to influence the course of events in their own interests. Macron telephoned the Iraqi president to assure him of France’s support for Iraq’s “security and sovereignty.” He also consulted with the rulers of a number of Arab states and the Russian president. German Chancellor Merkel will fly to Moscow this Saturday to meet with Vladimir Putin for discussions on the situation in the Middle East.
The European governments’ ambivalent response is motivated by two factors.
First, they fear that an uncontrolled escalation of war between the United States and Iran would result in another disaster, which would hit Europe hard in the form of terrorist attacks, an increased flow of refugees, higher oil prices and political instability.
This concern was formulated most clearly by the former first lord of the British Navy, Lord West, in an interview with the Daily Mail. “Britain and America want the same outcome in Iran,” he told the tabloid. “We both seek the removal of a hardline regime that poses a grave threat to global security, and its replacement with a more moderate government.”
He went on to say that Britain is trying “to ease tensions with Iran… for as long as the Iranian people feel themselves under constant siege by the rest of the world, there is no hope for a more rational and civilised government taking over in Tehran.” By contrast, Trump’s strategy is “to use harsh sanctions and ruthless military force.”
He continued: “However clinical its air strikes and drone attacks, America cannot defeat Iran and implement full-scale regime change. That would require at least a million pairs of boots on the ground, which would mean a return to conscription—last seen during the Vietnam War—and the likely loss of hundreds or thousands of American lives.”
Trump will not be prepared to carry this out ahead of the elections in November, he went on. “Instead, tensions will mount further. The world will teeter on the brink of war, not for days, but perhaps for months or even years.”
Lord West’s interview concludes with the demand for a large rearmament programme for Britain so as to enable London to more aggressively assert its interests in the Middle East.
The second factor driving the response of the European governments is the mounting class tensions within their own countries. In 2003, millions of people in Europe and around the world took to the streets to protest against the impending Iraq war. No small role in this was played by the French and German governments’ opposition to the war and their public criticisms of US President George W. Bush.
The European governments want to avoid a similar mobilisation today at all costs. They fear that the widespread opposition to war could unite with the mass struggles against pension cuts in France and the seething opposition to job cuts and poverty in Britain and Germany.
Like the US government, they are responding to the social tensions, economic problems and international conflicts by strengthening the apparatus of domestic state repression, rearming for war and plunging into military adventures. This is why they defend Trump’s war crime and why they are preparing to participate in a conflict they know will lead to disaster.
This is being rapidly reflected in the media. Symptomatic were two pieces in the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung.
On January 4, Stefan Kornelius justified the Suleimani assassination in a piece titled “Declaration of war,” while at the same time noting that “the reasons that may have driven Trump to give his order to kill... do not add up to a plausible strategy.” Trump is now “master of the battlefield, but he lacks a strategy and the understanding.”
A comment two days later by Thomas Avenarius in the same newspaper already struck a different tone. In a piece titled “The US should resume its role as a peacekeeping power,” he wrote, “Criticism of the US role in the Middle East is warranted more often than not… But it could be different this time around with the killing of General Suleimani: in the best case scenario, the US will resume its role as the peacekeeping power. Because the Middle East is sinking into utter chaos.”