Thailand: Bid for Chinese New Year tourists threatens new COVID surge

Robert Campion

Embracing the lie that COVID-19 is “mild” and “endemic,” the Thai regime is setting the stage for a new surge of the pandemic by attempting to kickstart its tourism sector by opening up to Chinese New Year tourists.

Thailand's Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, right, greets Chinese tourists at Suvarnabhumi International Airport in Samut Prakarn province, Thailand, Monday, Jan. 9, 2023. [AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit]

With the ending of zero-COVID in China and the opening up of its borders, some 300,000 Chinese are expected to travel to Thailand in the next three months. Several provincial areas and cities in Thailand are resuming Chinese New Year celebrations for the first time since 2020.

“It has been three years since we launched such large-scale Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations in Thailand due to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Chinese embassy charge d’affaires Yang Xin told the China Daily. “This year’s celebration back to normal is really encouraging.”

These comments reflect the abrupt about-face of the Chinese government, under huge international pressure, in ending its effective zero-COVID policy and embracing the murderous “let it rip” approach taken in countries around the world.

In Thailand, the true picture of daily COVID cases is masked behind a complete dismantling of testing and tracing. Official daily cases, now updated on a weekly basis, are indicating the beginnings of a case spike with the latest seven-day average of 4,166 daily cases.

Thailand’s Department of Disease Control (DDC) has declared that the arrival of Chinese tourists is “unlikely” to trigger a spike in the number of new COVID-19 infections. Large crowds, however, attend the Chinese New Year’s celebrations, likely turning them into mass spreader events.

The country’s health system, which is already under immense pressure, is assuming the worst. Deputy clerk Suksan Kittisupakorn told the Bangkok Post that the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and the Ministry of Public Health have prepared more than 10,000 hospital beds for new COVID-19 patients.

The tourist promotion is being driven by a flagging economy and big business demands for profit. The Thai economy has been hit hard by the US/NATO war against Russia in Ukraine and the US economic war against China. The IMF is forecasting a deceleration in growth and potentially a recession in Thailand’s major markets, the US and the European Union. Thailand’s economy is heavily dependent on export which constitute 55 percent of GDP.

A recent World Bank report projected that Thailand’s economy will expand by 3.4 percent in 2022 and 3.6 percent in 2023—revised by 0.7 percentage points since June. This estimate is well below the economic growth for 2022 and 2023 in comparable countries, such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia where projections range from 5 to 7 percent.

The Thai ruling class is pinning its hope of reviving the economy on restoring the tourist sector, which constituted a fifth of Thailand’s GDP prior to the pandemic. A revival of tourism, which is labour intensive, could also boost private consumption adding to economic growth.

The return of Chinese tourists is critical. Chinese tourists accounted for nearly a third of Thailand’s 40 million visitors before the onset of the pandemic, but this dropped to virtually zero after Beijing imposed its zero-COVID restrictions. After China’s borders re-opened on January 8, the Thai government is estimating that 3 to 5 million Chinese tourists will return in 2023, as part of the predicted 25 million international visitors. This is almost 15 million more than in 2022.

Incoming tourists will no longer be required to undergo COVID testing, let alone show proof of double vaccination.

“A full recovery hinges on arrivals from China, which are not expected to return en masse in the first half of 2023,” said Suksit Suvunditkul, president of the Thai Hotels Association Southern Chapter, told Bloomberg.

A key part of returning to “normal” economic activity is lulling the Thai population into a false sense of security. A recent comment in the Bangkok Post, headlined “Making Peace with Covid” is typical. Along with casting doubts on the safety of vaccines and promoting quack remedies such as green chiretta (a traditional herb), it completely downplayed the health impact of the virus.

“I think we can finally celebrate the New Year with peace of mind,” said Dr Thiravat Hemachudha, chief of the Thai Red Cross’s Emerging Infectious Diseases Health Science Centre, claiming the public was now “largely immune” to the virus. “The symptoms will be less severe as the virus becomes more easily transmissible in the future,” he added.

These statements fly in the face of repeated infections of the global population and reported by the WSWS which confirm that repeat infections result in steadily worse health outcomes for patients, including the risk of death, hospitalization and Long COVID. The prospect of “living with the virus” also poses the inevitability of new variants which further increase the danger of infection and death.

A report by the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation (IHME) estimated that, as of December 12, 77 percent of the Thai population in Thailand had been infected at least once, and that a surge was expected to begin in January following Chinese New Year’s celebrations. Daily infections were modelled to rise to 328,400 by January 29, 2023.

The government’s policies are setting the working class on a collision course with the capitalist system. While increased tourist numbers might provide a limited boost to businesses, it will do little or nothing to improve the living conditions of workers and the rural power. Indeed, while a modest increase is projected for the urban economy, the rural economy lags behind. At the  same time, working people face greater risks of serious illness and death with the spread of COVID.

According to the World Bank, poverty is projected to rise to 6.6 percent in 2022 from 6.3 percent in 2021. Much of the rise is bound up with the phasing out of COVID-19 relief measures as well as rising inflation. The minimum wage was increased in October by 5 percent—well below the official inflation rate of more than 7 percent.

Even those earning above the minimum wage are struggling to make ends meet. The Thai Chamber of Commerce University’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting warned that household debt in Thailand will likely rise to around 89.3 percent of GDP or 14.97 trillion baht by the end of 2022, the highest rate in 16 years.

The deepening social and economic crisis in Thailand will inevitably fuel rising social tensions and outbreaks of the class struggle, as is increasingly the case around the world.

Bowing to coup threats, Lula promises massive investments in Brazil’s armed forces

Tomas Castanheira

Today, Brazil’s newly inaugurated president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers Party (PT), had his second meeting with the command of the armed forces since the January 8 fascist attack on government buildings in Brasilia.

Military parade on the commemoration of Brazil’s independence, September 7, 2022. [Photo: Photo: Alan Santos/PR]

In an interview with Globonews on Wednesday, Lula said that the central topic of this meeting would be “to discuss the strengthening of the defense industry in this country.”

Explaining the agenda of the discussion, he said: “I asked each force to present me the difficulties they are experiencing in terms of functional structure … so that we can have a process of rebuilding the productive capacity. Including using military technology to make a stronger, more modern defense industry.”

The PT president said that his goals included to “dynamize the military patents that we already have, dynamize the development of the nuclear submarine and dynamize other things that Brazil needs to be a respected country. Our armed forces have to be prepared.”

In order to “effectively put into practice” these objectives, Lula invited the president of the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (FIESP), Josué Gomes, to participate in his meeting with the military command. He boasted that FIESP—the same big business lobby that seven years ago publicly campaigned for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff of the PT—has a “project for the defense industry.”

The new PT government is promoting this militaristic campaign in the face of what Lula himself characterized as the threat of a military coup that confronted his administration less than two weeks ago.

In a press conference last week, Lula declared that if he had agreed to call for a Law and Order Operation (GLO) suggested by his defense minister and the Army commander, “the coup would have happened.” That would have meant, Lula said, his abdication of power “so that a general could take over the government.”

In Wednesday’s Globonews interview, Lula again talked about the background of the January 8 events. He essentially acknowledged having confronted an act of sabotage by the military top brass.

The president claimed to have left the Brazilian capital two days before the storming of government offices “with the information that there were only 150 people in the encampment [of Bolsonaro’s fascist supporters at the army headquarters] and they weren’t going to allow any more buses in. ... And after it happened, then you see that on social media this was being called for for more than a week!”

“Here we have army intelligence, we have intelligence from the Cabinet of Institutional Security (GSI), we have Navy intelligence, we have Air Force intelligence,” Lula said. “The truth is that none of this intelligence served to warn the president of the republic that this could have happened.”

The interviewer, Natuza Nery, asked the president why then he didn’t adopt a “more energetic attitude in relation to the military, the Ministry of Defense itself, the GSI,” or even the “immediate changing of the [military] command that had just taken over.” Lula responded, “We can’t have a witch hunt.” “My sorrow,” he added, “is that there was negligence.”

In the interview, Lula also presented for the first time an assessment of the role possibly played by his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro on January 8. Stating that the silence maintained by the fascistic ex-president gave him the impression that “he had a lot to do with what was happening.” Lula concluded, “Possibly Bolsonaro was hoping to return to Brazil in the glory of a coup. I then could not allow a GLO.”

Since the attack in Brasilia, investigations into Bolsonaro and his allies have intensified. Bolsonaro’s minister of justice, Anderson Torres—who since the end of the presidential term had been acting as secretary of security of the Federal District, appointed by Governor Ibaneis Rocha—was arrested last Saturday, accused of collaborating with the pro-coup demonstrations.

Two days earlier, the Federal Police had seized at Torres’ residence the draft of a decree allowing Bolsonaro’s government to establish a state of defense (an even harsher military intervention than a GLO) over the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The document was quickly dubbed the “coup draft.” This evidence indicates that over the two months between the election results and Lula’s inauguration, which Bolsonaro spent secluded from public life, the former fascistic president was prepared for a possible coup d’état based on the overthrow of the electoral system by the military.

The fact that the armed forces have in the meantime released their report on the elections, falsely claiming to have identified a “relevant risk to the security of the process,” demonstrates their direct involvement in Bolsonaro’s dictatorial plot.

The extension of these investigations is limited from the outset by Lula’s obstinacy in appeasing and getting closer to the military and the far-right political forces that dominate the Brazilian state.

These efforts are being welcomed by the Brazilian bourgeoisie. The right-wing Estado de São Paulo, which acts as a mouthpiece of a section of the armed forces, praised Lula for his conciliation with the pro-coup military. In its lead article on Friday, the newspaper acknowledged that in Lula’s first two terms (from 2003 to 2010) “the three forces had the most spectacular renovation program in decades.”

However, Estado added, today “the commanders also have other, more subjective demands.” These include the guarantee of political autonomy for the armed forces and nonintervention by the government in the curricula of military schools, which extol the military coup of 1964 and the two-decades long brutal dictatorship that it imposed upon Brazil.

Referring to the political significance of today’s meeting between Lula and the military, Estado described it as “a pact of coexistence.”

The PT’s response to the violent fascist threats that have emerged in its first weeks in office have a purely reactionary character. At the same time that it seeks to balance itself in power by leveraging the strength of the military—which can only fuel the potential for a future coup—the Lula government is using these threats to declare any infringement upon capitalist profit interests impossible.

This week, the minister of economy, and one of the main leaders of the PT, Fernando Haddad, participated in the World Economic Forum in Davos. On the sidelines of the event, Haddad told the Financial Times that the recent attack in Brasilia demonstrated that “the opposition to Lula will be made of extremists” and, consequently, that “the speed of the implementation of our program will need to be considered very carefully ... as to avoid being the target of fake news and rioting.”

In other words, Haddad announced to the billionaires present at Davos that they have nothing to fear from the PT government in Brazil. Clarifying the practical meaning of his words, the minister declared: “It is not easy to raise taxes on rich people because a lot of congressmen have wealth and income . . . We have to start to change the mindset of people first.”

Next to taxing the richest, the main social promise of the PT presidential campaign was to raise the minimum wage in Brazil. Last week, Haddad announced that even the meager 18 real (US$3.46) increase in the monthly minimum wage—currently set at1,302 reais (US$250)—cannot be met this year.

Under conditions of soaring inflation, exploding social inequality and widespread hunger in Brazil, the supposedly “left-wing” PT government is orienting itself, already in its first weeks in office, to raising military spending and freezing social spending. In the name of appeasing fascist forces and the military, the pro-capitalist PT government is paving the way for an explosion of working class fury.

Under these conditions, the unions and the pseudo-left parties have renewed their support for this anti-working class government. Also on Wednesday, Lula received representatives of the different Brazilian trade union federations. While the trade unionists “expressed solidarity with the government,” Lula promised to establish new means of financing the unions.

A particularly criminal role was played by the pseudo-left trade union federation CSP-Conlutas, controlled by the Morenoite Unified Socialist Workers Party (PSTU). Just two days before Lula’s meeting with the military command, the PSTU unionists demanded massive federal investments in the defense industry, fraudulently presenting the proposal as a means of defending workers’ jobs.

The militarist turn of the PT and the pseudo-left in Brazil is intimately connected to the drive toward a third world imperialist war.

In his Wednesday interview, Lula was asked about the similarities between the far-right movement promoted by Bolsonaro in Brazil and that of his ally and political mentor, Donald Trump, in the United States. The PT president admitted the global character of the phenomenon, stating that “everywhere a far-right grouping is being born.”

As a reaction to this global political threat, Lula said: “I’ve already talked to French people, Spanish people, German people. We need to unite the progressive and democratic people of the world to have a meeting so that we can establish a confrontational action to prevent the resurgence of Nazism or fascism.”

In particular, he pointed to his meetings scheduled in the coming weeks with US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as key arenas to elaborate an “anti-fascist” political strategy.

All the countries named by Lula are NATO members, engaged in escalating the proxy war against Russia, employing openly fascist forces such as the Azov Battalion in Ukraine. In particular, Biden and Scholz, heads of US and German imperialism, are responsible for this criminal war, which has unleashed the largest military confrontation since World War II.

The militaristic campaign, the deepening of capitalist attacks and the covering up the developing fascist forces in the Brazilian state, jointly promoted by the PT and its pseudo-left satellites, require a direct response by the Brazilian working class.

Sri Lankan parliament passes draconian “rehabilitation” law

Saman Gunadasa

On Wednesday, the Sri Lankan parliament passed the Bureau of Rehabilitation Bill, which gives the army, navy and air force authority to run so-called rehabilitation centres. The legislation will give the increasingly hated regime of President Ranil Wickremesinghe the ability to incarcerate workers, youth and other political opponents in military-operated detention camps.

The bill, which was approved by the national cabinet and presented to parliament by Minister of Justice, Prison Affairs and Constitutional Reforms Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe was passed with 23 votes in favour and 6 votes against. Only 29 MPs were present in the 225-seat parliament for the vote.

Parliamentarians from the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) voted for the bill with MPs from the opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) opposing it.

Despite the rhetorical criticisms by SJB MPs during the debate, less than five of the party’s 54 parliamentarians were in parliament during the vote.

Minister of Justice, Prison Affairs and Constitutional Reforms Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe. [Photo: Justice Media Division]

The original version of the bill was presented to parliament on September 23 but challenged by petitions filed by civil society activists and opposition MPs in the Supreme Court. The court ruled the bill to be “unconstitutional in its entirety,” an unprecedented finding in the judicial body’s recent history.

The judges decreed that most of the contravening clauses required endorsement by a two-thirds majority of the parliament and that clauses had to be approved by a national referendum. The court’s main concern was with provisions allowing the government to send “ex-combatants,” “violent and extremist groups,” and “any other groups of persons” to the military-run rehabilitation centres. The court suggested that the bill be amended to remove these clauses so it could be passed without a two-thirds parliamentary majority and a referendum.

From the outset, the government’s new law has nothing to do with “rehabilitating” drug addicts but was to incarcerate workers, youth and political opponents indefinitely, and without any judicial determination, in military-run centres.

Presenting its new version of the bill to parliament, the government claimed it had amended the bill in line with the court’s suggestions and had limited it to “drug dependent persons” and “other persons as provided for by the law.”

As pointed out in the parliamentary debate this week, insertion of the phrase “other persons identified by law” introduces a vague and unidentified category. No clear answer was given in the parliament to a question about whether “identified by law” meant a “judicial determination” or not. This leaves wide open the possibility of subsequent amendments to broaden the scope and application of this repressive law.

Government MPs and cabinet ministers regularly refer to the April–July 2022 mass uprising against former President Rajapakse, making clear that their intention is to use the law for the “rehabilitation” of political activists.

Amnesty International voiced its opposition to the legislation on Thursday, describing it as a “significant blow to human rights.” It noted that the bill enables “involuntary ‘rehabilitation’ through use of force” and “will put at risk the life and health of people who use drugs.”

In fact, the military-run centres will not be drug rehabilitation centres but legalised torture chambers used for political purposes. Even with the amendments suggested by the Supreme Court, anyone sent to these facilities will be subjected to forced labour and the use of “minimum force” and “authorised” narcotics to regulate their behaviour.

As Amnesty International and international health experts have pointed out, the rehabilitation of drug dependent people requires individualised programs designed by professional psychologists, psychiatrists and other health experts, and community-based voluntary treatments, not soldiers and a military with a long history of gross human rights abuses.

Entrance to the Kandakadu Treatment and Rehabilitation Centre. [Photo: Facebook]

The plight of inmates in existing government-run rehabilitation centres makes clear that these institutions are forced labour camps. Several uprisings and riots have erupted in these centres in the recent past.

Last June, a 36-year-old inmate of the Kandakadu rehabilitation centre was beaten to death by soldiers, following angry protests over unsafe coronavirus conditions. Hundreds of inmates escaped from the rehabilitation centre during the protest. One of the escapees later told the press, “We were sent here to be reformed. But they are not treating us. They are killing us.”

While some soldiers were arrested over their violent attacks on inmates, under the new legislation military officers are given blanket immunity from prosecution for “anything done in good faith in the exercise, performance or discharge of any power, duty or function imposed or conferred on the Bureau.”

Wickremesinghe is rapidly bolstering the state apparatus, acutely aware of the rising working-class opposition to its International Monetary Fund (IMF)-dictated austerity.

Having come to power after Rajapakse was ousted, Wickremesinghe mobilised the police and military to crackdown on anti-government protesters, arresting and detaining hundreds. He also used the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) to arrest student leaders including Inter-University Student Federation convener Wasantha Mudalige who has now been in detention for over five months.

Wickremesinghe has kept the military on alert throughout the country and uses the Essential Services Act to ban industrial action and protests by electricity, health and petroleum workers.

The working class, however, has challenged these repressive measures, with strike and protests. These includes a one-day strike by Telecom and Insurance workers against privatisation and a national postal workers’ strike against cuts in overtime payments in December. In early January health workers walked out on strike to demand wage rises and cuts in high interest rates on personal loans. This year there have been demonstrations virtually every day throughout the country, including in rural areas, and protests by thousands of students against the government’s repressive measures.

Students and youths protesting in Colombo to demand the release of student leaders, 2 November 2022. [Photo: WSWS]

During Wednesday’s parliamentary debate, opposition MPs criticised the government’s “undue hurry” about the new legislation and voiced concerns about it being used against social activists, but did not oppose the central thrust of the legislation.

SJB MP Sarath Fonseka, a former Sri Lankan Army commander said: “We have no questions [about the bill], if there’s no political suppression from this bill.”  In other words, if the government gives a meaningless “assurance” to that effect, the SJB is ready to support it.

Opposition parties, such as the SJB and JVP, when in power, have a record of backing state repression against the working class and the rural masses.

Google carries out mass layoffs of 12,000 workers as global jobs massacre continues

James Martin

Google’s parent company Alphabet became the latest technology company to carry out a jobs bloodbath on Friday, when it announced it would cut over 6 percent of its global workforce, or 12,000 employees. Laid off workers in New York City who arrived at the office on Friday found that they could not enter the building as their badge access was cut off.

The same day, Vox Media also announced it would lay off over 7 percent of its employees, about 130 workers, and e-commerce company Wayfair said it would cut 10 percent, or 1,750 of its workforce. Layoffs have also begun at Apple’s retail sector, according to AppleInsider, although it remains unclear how many workers have lost their jobs so far.

Large layoffs were also announced at a number of technology companies globally on Friday, including the Indian-startup Medibuddy (200 jobs), e-commerce company Zilingo (280), analytics firm Visier (80), visitor-management company Envoy (67), Indian-based global consulting firm Wipro (452), Brainly (48), and others.

In total, over 40,000 workers were laid off this week, primarily in the tech sector. This includes 10,000 at Microsoft and 18,000 at Amazon, one of the largest layoffs the latter company has ever carried out in its nearly three-decade history as an e-commerce retailer. The first 20 days of the year have seen over 74,431 job cuts in the tech sector, compared to a total of 228,091 jobs cut in all of 2022, according to tech layoff tracker TrueUp.

In just the past month of January 2023, there have been over 70,000 job cuts across the technology sector. [AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File]

In an email sent to employees Friday and published on the company blog, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai justified the cuts by declaring that Google had “hired for a different economic reality than the one we face today.” He added that cuts would be made across multiple business units, including in recruiting and its cloud computing divisions and its Area 150 business incubator, which had already faced job cuts last September. Pichai claims the layoffs goal would be to “reengineer our cost base, and direct our talent and capital to our highest priorities.”

News of the layoffs was greeted very positively by Wall Street investors. Alphabet stock jumped over 5 percent Friday. Wayfair stocks skyrocketed by 22 percent. Capital One Financial Corp, which announced that it would cut 1,100 technology positions, also saw its stocks jump 4 percent Friday.

Alphabet’s hedge-fund investors such as TCI Fund Management have been demanding that the company pursue an aggressive policy of cost cutting and layoffs since last year. In an open letter to the CEO of Alphabet, TCI demanded that the company’s “management needs to take aggressive action,” adding that the “company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.”

Investor analyst outlet Seeking Alpha likewise demanded layoffs this week in an article, “Google: When Will Pichai Drop The Axe?”, citing the company’s stock performance and a number of earnings misses and sales misses last year. It noted, “global ad spending is likely to remain muted, or even contract, within the near term given the industry's inherent sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds… As such, reducing headcount could be a ‘low-hanging fruit’ for Google to preserve and expand its profit margins, and lift sentiment on the stock's sluggish performance.”

The tech cuts are only the beginning of a broader offensive against jobs by the entire capitalist elite, who are determined to use unemployment as a weapon against the rise of strike activity as workers push wages that keep pace with the rising cost of living and other basic demands. This is being spearheaded by Washington and the Federal Reserve, whose series of interest rate hikes has as their stated purpose curbing wage growth. Globally, workers’ real wages declined last year, according to reports by the International Labor Organization, the product of skyrocketing cost of living caused by pervasive shortages caused by the pandemic and the NATO-backed war in Ukraine.

In December, Democrats and Republicans came together to ban a strike by 120,000 railroad workers, justified in public on the grounds that it would have an unacceptable impact on “the economy” and even “working families.” But the same ruling elite is deliberately pushing towards recession and mass unemployment to make workers bear the cost of the crisis which their own policies have created.

Substantial cuts in manufacturing and other sectors of the global workforce are also on the docket for this year. Stellantis has indefinitely idled its Belvidere Assembly Plant and its CEO has threatened that a number of other auto plants could be shuttered.

Google workers responded to the announcement of mass layoffs with shock and anger. Chris McDonald, a Google software engineer, tweeted Friday morning, “I just got laid off. Mass layoffs happening at Google apparently.” He added, “I was expecting a glowing performance review and had just started to lead a critical project in my org. This came as a total and nasty surprise.” McDonald said he felt he had been “stabbed in the back” as management had assured him that his performance was valued.

Charlotte Cucchiaro tweeted about the cruel way in which Google shut down employee access, “I was not emailed. Just booted out of all corporate accounts with zero explanation. After 11 years.”

Rob Giampetro tweeted, “Today me and many of my talented colleagues from Google's Insight+Innovation team were let go….My heart goes out to all those affected. I'm still processing, but in every end is a new beginning. I'm looking forward to discovering what's next.”

Google employee Nick Eberts tweeted of the broader tech layoffs, “Imagine being 24 years and ten months at a company that has a 5 year stock vest schedule that fully vest on your 25 year... and being let go a month and change before 25... and the company that cut you made $198 billion last year. I HATE CAPITALISM.”

The wave of layoffs will only fuel, not dampen, the growth of opposition in the working class. Indeed, the month of January has already seen massive strikes around the world, including by tens of thousands of nurses and railroad workers in Britain and millions in France who marched last week against government pension cuts. This is intersecting and fueling growing political opposition against right-wing capitalist governments, as seen by the demonstrations by more than 100,000 in Israel.

Major class battles lie ahead in the US as well this year. On March 1, the contract expires for 5,000 Caterpillar construction equipment workers. Later this year, contracts expire for 200,000 postal workers, over 300,000 UPS workers and 150,000 autoworkers, among others.

Ethnic Terrorism Continues to Stalk Ethiopia

Graham Peebles

Where there is division there will be conflict. In a country such as Ethiopia with dozens of ethnic/tribal groups, the need for tolerance, cooperation and unity is essential if there is to be peace and social harmony. Where these are absent, where differences and historic grievances are enflamed by ideologically ambitious individuals/groups, fear hate, and violence flourish.

Ethiopia is a large country divided into 11 regions. Covering over a third of the total land mass Oromia is the largest and, with an estimated 35% of the total population (approximately 122 million), the Oromo constitute the largest ethnic group, followed by the Amhara (28%).

Within Oromia and neighboring regions (Afar, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz), a targeted slaughter, that many believe constitutes genocide, is taking place — perpetrated by Oromo extremists against the Amhara people.

The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is the principle force behind the violence. During the recent war they allied themselves with the US-backed TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) terrorists, and have over the last four years carried out dozens of deadly incursions. Whole districts in western Oromia are being purged of Amhara people in a brutal campaign which, some fear, could trigger a civil war between the two largest ethnic groups.

The situation is complicated, contradictory narratives, denials and accusations abound; dis-misinformation is being propounded by the OLA through sympathetic media outlets such as the Oromo Media Network (OMN) and Kush Media Network (KMN). Spurious material which, according to Genocide Prevention in Ethiopia (GPE), an NGO collating data on the conflict, has previously “led to a massive campaign against Amharas across the entire Oromo Region”.

While the politics of the conflict, objectives and the line/s between tribal political alignments and terrorism may appear obscure, what is crystal clear is that the Ethiopian people, drained after two years of war with the TPLF (November 2020-November 2022), with many deeply traumatized, cannot withstand another bloody conflict.

The OLA militants

The OLA constitutes the armed wing of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Formed, according to their website, in 1973 by “Oromo nationalists to lead the national liberation struggle of the Oromo people against the Abyssinian colonial rule.” The fundamental objective of the OLF is, they say, “to exercise the Oromo people’s inalienable right to national self-determination to terminate a century of oppression and exploitation.” They routinely claim to be defending Oromo civilians from Amhara militia and federal forces, and maintain that, “the protracted armed resistance ……of the Front, [OLF] is an act of self-defence exercised by the Oromo people against successive Ethiopian governments including the current one, who forcibly deny their right to self-determination.”

Exiled in Eritrea/Kenya until 2018, when, under an amnesty introduced by the current government led by Abiy Ahmed (an Oromo), thousands of political prisoners, journalists and critics of the previous regime (a coalition of which Abiy, as leader of the Oromo Democratic Party, was a part) were released, and opposition parties located abroad, welcomed home. Upon their return a number of OLF politicians are said to have secured influential positions on the fringes of the government, whilst some of the more military minded, were assimilated into the OSF. Since the arrival of the OLA on the scene, unlike other armed groups, they have not only been allowed to retain arms, but given the space in which to radicalize, recruit, and train young Oromos.

Since 2018, when the violence began, it is impossible to know the number of people (mainly Amharas) killed. GPE estimates it to be around 30,000, other sources put the figure much lower; the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project e.g. shows that from August 2021 to July 2022 alone “there were 3,784 deaths linked to the OLA.”

What is undisputed is that it is overwhelmingly Amhara people who are being murdered (sometimes in the most barbaric, horrific fashion), women/girls raped; hundreds of thousands displaced, countless homes destroyed, livestock stolen; and that, despite their claims to the contrary, the OLA/OLF are responsible. The OLA is supported by regional terror groups (Gumuz Liberation Movement and Gambella Liberation Front), criminal gangs and, it is widely believed, factions within the Oromo Special Forces (OSF), acting on orders from the Oromia Regional Authority (ORA).

The ORA is widely thought to have been infiltrated by Oromo nationalists, and is not under the control of the federal government. In July 2022 an elected member of the Ethiopian parliament, Hangaasa Ahmed, accused the (Oromo) regional administration of coordinating attacks in Wollega, where many of the killings have taken place. Elements within the regional body (not the federal government) are said to be conspiring with the OLA, and radicalized OSF fighters.

One such incursion, with witnesses asserting OSF involvement, took place on 10 December in the Kemashi Zone of Benishangul-Gumuz region (bordering Sudan). The Amhara Association of America (AAA), a human rights group based in the US with a small team of investigators in Ethiopia, relates claims that the OLA were supported in the attack by Qeerro, a notorious Oromo youth group, which was instrumental in removing the previous EPRDF regime in 2018, and, eye witnesses claim, by members of the OSF. “They killed at least thirteen Amhara civilians, injured five more.” Over 500 houses were deliberately burned [forcing around 2000 people to flee] and over 3,000 farm animals were looted.” A survivor told AAA’s investigators: “There were both Special Forces and Shene (OLA) united to eliminate Amharas.”

There have been many such attacks over the last three years or so, too many to recount: the Gimbi massacre however stands out. It is one of the few incidents to be widely covered by western media, and highlights the brutal nature of the Oromo nationalists’ campaign, and the degree of human suffering inflicted.

On 18 June 2022, “OLA militants entered Tole Kebele (district) [West Wollega Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia] and opened fire on Amhara civilians in a nine hour long killing spree which spanned ten villages.” AAA relate witness statements — “First, the militants began shooting people and then used machetes to finish off victims whom they suspected had not died from the gunshots.” The NGO estimate around 503 Amhara civilians were killed, while elsewhere it was reported that, “more than 1500 ethnic Amhara were massacred, including children and women.”

True to form the OLA denied any involvement; their spokesperson, Odaa Tarbii, told AP that the Gimbi attack, “was committed by the regime’s military and local militia as they retreated from their camp in Gimbi following our recent offensive.” Local residents however confirmed that the OLA were behind what one survivor described as a “massacre of Amharas.” Prime Minister Abiy condemned the “evil force” and vowed, to “eliminate” the OLA. A pledge, like political statements made the world over, easily made, but more difficult to accomplish.

Amhara homes demolished

In addition to attacking unarmed Amhara civilians, a house demolitions program, which has existed in and around Addis Ababa since 2018, is intensifying. A detailed investigation by AAA found that, “At least 3,415 houses belonging to non-Oromo owners (most of them belonging to Amhara owners) were demolished” this year alone — properties owned by Oromo were left untouched. The human rights group claims that, “Oromia Special Forces [OSF], Oromia Region police, government representatives, and local youth” are responsible for the demolitions in various parts of “the newly established Sheger City administration”; an area populated by both Amhara and Oromo, where control switched from a local administration to the Oromia Regional State in August 2022.

According to AAA, when people asked the authorities why their houses had been destroyed, their personal belongings trashed. The response was swift and ferocious: “At least 40 individuals were arrested and their whereabouts remain unknown. Another 10…were brutally injured by security forces of the Oromia Regional State.” A local resident whose home was levelled, relates that on 3 January, “hundreds of local youth, police and special police came to the Enku-Gabriel area (Betachignaw side),” they opened fire on those trying to stop them and proceeded to “abscise the roof and doors of houses and took the tin to the Oromia Region with the help of 11 [Isuzu] FSR trucks.”

The houses, many occupied by the same family for 30/40 years, may, as some claim, have been built illegally, and some will no doubt argue that demolitions were based, therefore, not on ethnic hatred but on legality of ownership. Where a legitimate question of ownership exists the matter should be properly investigated; there is no justification for such wholesale vandalism, and, in a country seeking to strengthen democratic institutions and the rule of law the perpetrators of such destruction should be held to account.

Many of those affected believe the demolition campaign is an attempt to eradicate Amhara people and “Oromize the area”. A plan, which, some hold, included the recent introduction of the Oromo national anthem and display of the Oromo flag in schools in parts of Addis Ababa. An illegal move that triggered powerful popular resistance forcing the policy to be withdrawn; a triumph for community action and common sense, which could empower people to take further action against ethnic nationalism and communal division.

Building unity creating peace

Although the OLF (regarded as a legitimate political party) and OLA appear to be two distinct groups, they are but opposite sides of the same violent tribalistic coin. Sharing a flag, a hatred and resentment of Amhara people, and a divisive vision of Oromo Statehood; an expanded Oromia that would swallow up territory of neighboring states (Amhara, Afara, BSG, Gambella, Ogaden) and include the capital, Addis Ababa.

Whether their aim is self-determination as stated on the OLF website, or an independent (enlarged) Oromo Republic, the need for urgent government action to stop the killing/displacement and destruction of homes is clear. Long-term grievances can be examined and dealt with after the guns have been silenced, the machetes laid down, those responsible arrested and prosecuted. This requires government to act decisively, to powerfully condemn OLA attacks and loss of life — something routinely lacking — enforce law and order effectively and consistently, and to safeguard the community. As The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission rightly states: “The killing, maiming and displacement of civilians in the [Oromo] region……calls for immediate action by the federal government and a concrete and lasting solution.”

To date, the government’s response has been disappointing. This may be partially explained by the demands the TPLF conflict placed on federal forces and officials; some, however, believe it shows political weakness in the face of Oromo nationalist influence at the heart of government; other, more critical voices, suggest that through neglect and omission, the government is complicit. GPE for example, claim that government agencies are implicated in OLA/OSF incursions, cutting telecommunication, electricity/water supplies and blocking roads in preparation for an impending attack.

Such accusations, if true do not prove federal government involvement; they may point towards participation at a local administrative level however, and thereby reveal the degree to which regional administrations and some (Oromo) ethnically aligned voices within the federal government are able to act independently. If this is so, again strong decisive government action is required to weed out such voices.

Immediate substantive action must be taken to stop the carnage. It can be done if the will is there: when the TPLF attacked in November 2020, the government initially responded decisively and swiftly. The OLA and their allies are just as great a threat as the TPLF; they, too, must be stopped.

In the long term, constitutional reform is required, ethnic federalism jettisoned, all regional militia disarmed, and a national debate around democratic participation and regional governance initiated. Nothing lasting can be achieved in the country without first peace; no prosperity, no social changes, no lasting democratic developments. These will not be created by gesture politics or flamboyant speeches, but through inclusive policies that encourage broad democratic participation; by building relationships based on respect and trust and creating a vibrant sense of national unity.

Liberty Steel plans to cut 450 UK jobs and downscale production

Simon Whelan

Liberty Steel has placed almost 450 jobs at risk in the UK under plans to idle industrial production at three plants and restructure at others.

The company says it will restart production at the idled plants only “when the market and operating conditions allow”. It claims the UK’s high energy costs and stern competition from cheaper foreign imports make its current operations “unviable”, i.e. not profitable enough.

Sanjeev Gupta (right) of Liberty House Group pictured with Fergus Ewing, Minister for Business, Energy & Tourism outside the Dalzell steel plant in Motherwell in 2016. [Photo by Scottish Government/FlickR / CC BY 2.0]

Liberty Steel employs 35,000 workers at around 200 locations globally. It is part of billionaire Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG Alliance. Most plants are in Europe, with the firm also employing 6,500 across several Australian states and 1,500 across 16 sites in the US. Liberty operates 11 plants in Britain employing around 3,000 workers and is the third largest steelmaker in the UK.

Under its new plans, production and processing facilities in South Wales will be idled, making 120 workers in Newport and another 35 in Tredegar redundant.

The West Bromwich site in England’s Midlands will also be made dormant, with 100 jobs to go. Liberty’s Performance Steel plant at West Bromwich will be transformed into a sales and distribution hub, with workers offered continued employment through a “retain, redeploy and reskill” programme.

Production will be reduced at the Rotherham, Scunthorpe and Dalzell plants.

This week the company confirmed that 185 jobs will be lost in Rotherham, South Yorkshire, by plans to cut the production of primary steel and instead use imported metals to manufacture higher-priced special alloy steels. They will be imposed following a 45-day “consultation” period.

The company will also focus on the production of higher-value alloy steel manufacturing at its other South Yorkshire plants in Brinsworth and Stocksbridge, abandoning cheaper “commodity grade” products for which there is tough global competition.

Liberty Steel has had cashflow issues since the collapse of its main financier, Greensill Capital, in 2021. Greensill was a financial backer of Gupta’s collection of companies known then as Gupta Family Group. The steel and energy group controlled by Gupta has still not paid back a £7 million publicly funded loan it received in 2016.

Gupta’s operations face multiple problems, ranging from the resignation of the auditor of several key companies in September last year, to an investigation by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office and French police into “suspected fraud, fraudulent trading and money laundering”.

No campaign is being waged by the trade unions to oppose the job cuts. Their pro-company, corporatist perspective was expressed by Alun Davies, national officer at steelworkers’ union Community, who said mournfully that Liberty’s announcement was a “body blow to Liberty Steel’s loyal UK workforce, who couldn’t have done more to get the company through an exceptionally challenging period.”

He continued, “Since the collapse of Greensill Capital the trade unions have supported the company because we believed that delivering the company’s business plans, which were audited and backed by the unions’ independent experts, was the best route to safeguard jobs and the future of all the businesses.”

Davies complained, however, that “the plans we reviewed were based on substantial investment and ramping up production, including at Liberty Steel Newport, and did not include the ‘idling’ of any sites.”

Community has partnered with Liberty management throughout repeated restructurings, the pandemic, and earlier suspensions of production, always at the cost of its members.

Davies declared, “These are challenging times for all steelmakers but the company’s decision to change their plans, on which we based our support, and announce a strategy seemingly based on capacity cuts and redundancies is devastating.”

No jobs will be defended. Rotherham Community union rep Chris Williamson said the union would do its “utmost to ensure there are no compulsory redundancies,” leaving the door open for pressured “voluntary” schemes.

Davies demanded of the company only that “The consultation on these proposals must be meaningful and the unions will be scrutinising the detail of plans to idle Newport, West Bromwich and Tredegar, including Liberty’s commitment to restart the plants when conditions allow.”

As the Rotherham redundancies were announced, the role of the unions as an industrial police force, isolating and dividing the working class for the benefit of the corporations, was underscored by the Unite union’s response to the decision by Liberty Steel not to sell off its Stocksbridge plant. Stocksbridge is located only a few miles from the Rotherham plant where redundancies are being enforced.

In words that indistinguishable from a Liberty corporative executive, Doug Patterson of Unite union said of the Stocksbridge decision, “It appears the financing is on a sound footing and the trajectory is upwards. It probably ties in with growth in the markets for oil, gas and aerospace. It is the best news for years, although the cost of electricity remains a problem and there is no certainty about government support. They were supposed to be announcing an extension of support in January.”

Community also insisted that in defence of the steel industry, the Conservative government “must play their part, stop the dithering and act to deliver the competitive energy prices our industry so desperately needs…steelworkers have had enough of warm words, it’s past time for government to decide whether it wants a steel industry in this country.” This appeal is made to a government waging a ruthless offensive against striking workers across all sectors.

It also seeks to tie steelworkers to a bankrupt nationalist programme. Community’s campaign is headed with the moniker, “Britain, we need our steel”. It’s accompanying webpage is redolent with right-wing nationalistic sentiment boasting, “Steel is a great British industry and we are proud of its contribution to building our nation” and “It is critical to Britain’s economic independence and our national security”.

The right-wing essence of this campaign was made clear by Labour MP Stephen Kinnock, who chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group on Steel. He wrote on PoliticsHome that it was “critical that we recognise the absolute necessity that we make our steel here in Britain. In the age of Vladimir Putin's invasion and China’s aggression, it is madness to surrender our sovereignty by off-shoring our steel-making capability to authoritarian regimes that wish Britain harm.”

A “defence” of the steel industry on this basis cuts steelworkers off from the vital support of their coworkers internationally in a highly globalised industry and signs them up to Labour and Tories’ trade and military wars.

Community is putting into practice the anti-working-class agenda of the entire union bureaucracy in connection with the NATO war on Russia.

At its conference last October, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) passed a motion calling on the “General Council to convene a major national initiative involving sympathetic manufacturers, unions, professional bodies and industrial area administrations to establish a national commission for manufacturing to oversee a revival in all sectors and plan a rejuvenation of production and skills development.”

This rejuvenation would help to reverse the “run-down of UK defence manufacturing”. The motion demands “immediate increases in defence spending”. It insists that “defence contracts to be placed in the UK where possible and shipbuilding orders to be placed with UK yards.”

Declaring its support for Britain’s role ploughing billions worth of military hardware into Ukraine, the motion states, “Congress further recognises that defence manufacturing cuts have hindered the UK’s ability to aid the Ukrainian people under brutal assault from Putin’s regime.” The motion denounced the previous TUC “policy carried in 2017 in favour of diversifying away from defence manufacturing” as “no longer fit for purpose.”