Trudeau visits Kiev to bolster US-NATO war on Russia

Roger Jordan

In a surprise visit to Kiev on Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau committed another C$500 million in military assistance to the far-right Ukrainian regime, and pledged Ottawa would continue supplying weapons and funds to Kiev to wage war on Russia for “as long as it takes.” Coming as the major imperialist powers are carrying out a dramatic escalation of the US-NATO war with Russia, Trudeau’s visit also saw Ottawa advocate for Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which would result in a direct military clash between nuclear-armed powers.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greeted by Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kiev, June 10, 2023 [Photo: Government of Ukraine]

Trudeau was accompanied on his trip by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a bellicose Ukrainian nationalist whose grandfather served as the editor of the only Ukrainian-language newspaper permitted in Nazi-occupied Europe. The pair held private talks with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, before Trudeau unveiled the new military support package at a joint press conference with Zelensky. Although the Prime Minister refused to specify how the funds would be spent, his remarks made clear that the military aid will contribute to the major escalation of NATO’s participation in the conflict that is already under way.

Canada committed to extending Operation Unifier, the training program for the Ukrainian army launched in 2015, until 2026. Canada will now train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, which are one of the main types of combat aircraft that NATO members are planning to provide Kiev. According to a press release by the far-right Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the aid package also includes additional supplies of 105mm ammunition, air-to-surface missiles, and a tank maintenance centre in Poland.

Trudeau used his press conference with Zelensky to make provocative denunciations of Russia. This included accusing Moscow, without providing a shred of evidence, of being responsible for the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, and vowing it “will be held accountable.” The implications of Trudeau’s statement are that Russia, by deliberately destroying civilian infrastructure, is guilty of war crimes—the very type of claim that the NATO powers, Canada included, have used to justify directly intervening in conflicts (as in the 1999 NATO war against Yugoslavia).

Trudeau also boasted that Ottawa has already provided Kiev over $8 billion in aid, including well over $1 billion in military assistance, since Russia’s reactionary, US-NATO provoked Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This vast support for waging imperialist war against Russia has been implemented by a minority Liberal government with close ties to the trade unions, which have suppressed all working-class opposition to Trudeau’s pro-war, pro-austerity agenda. At the unions’ behest, the social-democrats of the NDP have provided Trudeau’s Liberals with their parliamentary majority since 2019. In March 2022, just one month after the war began, the NDP entered into a formal governmental alliance with the Liberals, guaranteeing to sustain the Trudeau government in office through June 2025.

Zelensky’s declaration at his joint press conference with Trudeau that Ukraine’s long-promised counter-offensive has begun underscores that the war in Ukraine is entering a new, even more explosive stage. Leading officials from the United States and other imperialist powers have repeatedly declared their commitment to the military defeat of Russia, while their governments significantly expand military activity throughout Europe. The latest high-point of this huge mobilization is the Air Defender 2023 exercise, a 12-day operation involving hundreds of fighter jets over German, Dutch, and Czech air space and thousands of soldiers on the ground. Participants have been given explicit instructions to “train as you fight,” increasing the likelihood that Russia will interpret activity near its borders as preparations for an all-out attack.

Having staked everything on Ukraine’s counter-offensive producing a significant shift in the course of the war, the imperialist powers, including Canada, are being compelled by the logic of the conflict to expand their involvement. Both in his statements while in Ukraine and in a thirteen point “joint declaration” with Zelensky, Trudeau reiterated Canada’s support for Ukraine’ accession to NATO membership, which is expected to be significantly advanced by the NATO summit to be held in Vilnius next month.

The consequences of the war’s intensification and expansion were explained in a recent World Socialist Web Site Perspective, which noted, “The US-NATO war against Russia is evolving rapidly into a protracted struggle that is increasingly violent, bloody and global in character. The conflict has entered into the gravitational field of total war—that is, a war of unlimited destruction, complete disregard for life, and to which all social needs of the mass of the people are subordinated. Its corollary is the direct assault on the working class in all countries and the obliteration of democratic rights.”

Western propaganda claims that this is “Putin’s unprovoked war” and that Washington, Ottawa, London, Paris and Berlin are acting to save Ukrainian “democracy.” In reality, the Ukraine war was long prepared and instigated by the imperialist powers through their drive to strategically encircle Russia, harness Ukraine to NATO, and reorganize and rearm Ukraine’s military. Their aim—as Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly blurted out last March—is to secure “regime change” in Moscow, reduce Russia to a semi-colony, and plunder its vast natural resources.

The predatory aims of the imperialists correspond with the vicious anti-democratic forces they have cultivated to spearhead the war, above all the political descendants of Stepan Bandera’s fascist Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), whose militia have been integrated into Ukraine’s security forces. The OUN participated in the Nazi war of annihilation against the Soviet Union and was complicit in the Holocaust. Canadian imperialism plays a special role in this process, having developed over the past three-quarters of a century a close alliance with far-right nationalists from eastern Europe who collaborated with the Nazis during World War II and were subsequently given refuge in Canada. Freeland’s prominence in the government and in Trudeau’s Kiev visit underlines that this alliance is more important than ever. With state-support, the far-right UCC is mounting a concerted campaign to censor and smear all opposition to the war. At his joint press conference with Trudeau, Zelensky acknowledged Ottawa’s outsized role in the war, declaring that Ukraine needs “more friends like Canada.”

Canada’s latest round of military assistance was announced less than two weeks after Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, delivered a long list of requests for weapons in a video statement to the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries, Canada’s top arms manufacturers’ body. Noting the unusual character of the address, the CBC reported that Reznikov had “bypassed the [Canadian] government” to speak directly to the assembled executives. In reality, he was given the opportunity to do so by the Trudeau government, whose Defence Minister Anita Anand delivered the opening address but was conveniently absent when Reznikov spoke.

Urging Canada to commit to “long-term support,” Reznikov said, “Ukraine has given a list of their Canadian products and technologies it needs to the Canadian government.” He emphasized that Kiev is closely following the Liberal government’s defence policy review, which has been under way for more than a year. “We expect,” said Reznikov, “that [a] substantial volume of technical assistance to Ukraine will be provided within the framework of the defence policy review. Ukraine’s Defence Minister went on to claim that the review will be “released in July,” although the Trudeau government has yet to inform the Canadian public of this.

Even as the union-backed Trudeau government positions Canada in the front rank of the imperialist powers responsible for the escalation of the war with Russia, Ottawa is strengthening its involvement in US-led preparations for war with China. Late last year, the Liberal government released Canada’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy. Drafted in close consultation with the White House, it is based on the Pentagon’s concept that the struggle against China requires military preparations across a vast geostrategic arena, including the entire Indian Ocean and Asian Pacific. The strategy calls for Canada to systematically expand its military and economic efforts in the region to confront Beijing, with which leading US military experts are publicly declaring American imperialism could be at war by as early as 2025. Last week, a serious incident was only narrowly avoided after Washington and Ottawa provocatively sailed a US destroyer and Canadian frigate through the Taiwan Strait, which separates mainland China from Taiwan. Beijing responded by sailing a warship across the path of the two military vessels.

Sections of the ruling elite dissatisfied with the Trudeau government’s alleged failure to adopt a sufficiently hardline course towards China have made increasingly strident demands for Canada to go even further, including by seeking admission to the anti-China AUKUS military pact involving Australia, Britain, and the US. Over recent months, the main mechanism for this campaign has been the furor whipped up over lurid allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, based on illegal, anonymous leaks from senior sources within the intelligence agencies. These leaks, which have been presented by the corporate media as virtually akin to the gospel truth, have served not only to whip up animosity against China; but also to destabilize the Trudeau government, with a view to driving establishment politics sharply further right, with claims it has failed in its duty to “defend Canada.”   

Late last month former Governor General David Johnston, who was appointed by the Trudeau government to investigate the interference claims, released an interim report that said much of the information cited in the intelligence agency-fed media reports was either one-sided, unsubstantiated or misinterpreted. He also opposed the opposition parties’ and corporate media’s clamour for a public inquiry.

This provoked an outcry. On Friday, Johnston resigned as the government’s Special Rapporteur on Chinese interference after a sustained campaign of vilification led by the official opposition Conservatives and their far-right leader Pierre Poilievre, and supported by the Bloc Québécois and the NDP.

Volkswagen plans a radical program of cuts aimed at boosting profits

Ludwig Weller

The Wolfsburg-based Volkswagen Group, which, in addition to VW, also includes the brands Audi, Porsche, Skoda, Seat and others, is planning a huge restructuring of its production. According to VW managers and their major shareholders, the core brand VW, which accounts for about half of total sales, does not generate enough profit.

VW plant in Kassel [Photo: BiCYCLE / CC-BY-SA 3.0]

In order to change this situation, the group is planning a so-called “Performance Programme.” The gimmicky new name conceals a large-scale programme of cuts, with the goal, declared by VW CEO Thomas Schäfer, of initially increasing the return on investment from 3 percent to at least 6.5 percent.

To do so “we have to create good, competitive returns even in times of crisis and in a world that is volatile in the long run,' Schäfer added. He is referring to the profit margins of 10 to 15 percent, which are being currently achieved by car manufacturers in the premium segment, i.e. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Tesla, as well as the company’s own brands Audi and Porsche.

Such high profit rates can only be realised by drastically tightening exploitation in the VW plants. A high-ranking company representative candidly stated that savings of about one billion euros were necessary for every percentage point of additional profit. No information has been yet released about how many thousands of jobs are to be terminated, which types of production will be relocated and the extent to which wages and social benefits are to be slashed.

What is certain, however, is that the VW board has long been in intensive talks with the IG Metall trade union and its works councils on how to enforce this programme of cuts against the workforce.

Worldwide predatory competition at the expense of workers

With an annual turnover of over 250 billion euros, Volkswagen is one of the world’s largest car companies. Only Toyota has sold more cars in the last two to three years. Despite the coronavirus crisis, supply chain problems and chip shortages, VW has made billions in profits in the last three years.

No carmaker employs as many workers worldwide as the VW Group. It boasts it “operates 120 production sites in 19 countries in Europe and in 10 countries in America, Asia and Africa. 662,575 employees around the globe produce vehicles, are involved in vehicle-related services or work in other business areas. The Volkswagen Group offers its vehicles in 153 countries.”

However, the switch from internal combustion to electric cars has intensified the merciless competition between the big auto companies for the cheapest labour costs, sales markets and secure supply chains. This is all being fought on the backs of workers in all countries and locations, who have to work more and earn less, while hundreds of thousands lose their jobs.

In this transition, the competitors, above all Tesla and the Chinese manufacturers of e-cars, are far ahead of Volkswagen. The business paper Wirtschaftswoche recently wrote: 'It is Chinese suppliers who can build e-cars at unrivalled prices because they control the entire value chain from battery raw materials to car sales. And it’s new players like Tesla that are cornering the traditional Wolfsburg company with their minimal overhead costs and revolutionary low-cost production methods.”

Since the 1980s, Volkswagen and its core brand VW have been the market leader in China. But sales of internal combustion vehicles are now falling dramatically, and instead there is a rapidly increasing demand for electric cars. VW is currently far behind in this realignment of the auto market. In contrast, the Chinese producer BYD, which already manufactures exclusively electric vehicles, was able to expand its market share to 11 percent in the first quarter and take the lead ahead of Volkswagen and Toyota. It was able to increase its sales figures by 69 percent compared to the previous year.

Other Chinese manufacturers such as Nio, Geely and Great Wall also sell far more e-cars than Volkswagen. There is not a single German or European model among the top ten best-selling e-cars. Only Tesla is represented and is trying to capture market share with drastic price cuts. Meanwhile, car analysts say that the Chinese car market is in “turmoil,” while others speak of a “turning point.”

Wirtschaftswoche cites an example against which VW must be measured: “The ultra-modern Seal mid-size sedan from BYD costs the equivalent of around 25,000 euros in China. Volkswagen’s ID.4 mid-size SUV costs at least 45,000 euros in Germany with similar equipment to the BYD Seal.” These figures alone give an idea of the scale of cost savings the VW board has in mind and what it means by being “truly crisis-proof.”

War over raw materials

A central role in the conversion to e-mobility is played by the raw materials required for it. Large quantities of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite as well as some rare earths and other “critical minerals” are needed to produce batteries for electric cars. The fact that China largely controls this market and also processes these raw materials is increasingly driving Western car companies and their governments into conflict with China.

Russia and Ukraine also have large quantities of these strategic raw materials. For example, about a third of Europe’s explored lithium deposits, 500,000 tonnes in total, are in Ukraine, most of it in the fiercely contested Donbas region. Russia plays a particularly important role in the production of high-grade nickel, demand for which is expected to increase 19-fold over the next two decades, as well as platinum group metals, especially palladium.

This is one of the main reasons for the Ukraine war. From the beginning, NATO’s eastward expansion was aimed at bringing Ukraine under the influence of Western powers and at subjugating and crushing Russia in order to gain control over its natural resources. NATO’s constant escalation of the war leaves no doubt about this.

The strategists in the Pentagon are also preparing a war against China, which they see as a threat to the economic and political domination of the US. Corresponding political and military provocations take place every week. In March of this year, a memo of a high-ranking US general was revealed, which forecast that the US will be at war with China by 2025 at the latest.

European and especially German imperialism also increasingly see China as an economic threat and are becoming more hostile. The race to find alternative supply chains for critical raw materials, independent of China, is also bringing EU states into conflict with the US, which sees its dominance threatened.

With Tesla setting the benchmark for the development of high-priced electric cars and China and South Korea leading the world in the development and production of battery cells, VW is trying to catch up.

Similar to Tesla, which had its giga-factories built in record time, VW is already building gigantic battery-cell factories at three locations under the name PowerCo since July 2022. One in Germany, “Salzgiga” in Salzgitter, one in Spain, in Valencia, and one in North America. Five more are to follow together with partners in Europe. The first of these will go into operation in Sweden as early as this year.

VW’s largest battery factory to date, however, is to be built in St. Thomas, Ontario, in Canada by 2027. VW board member Thomas Schmall said North America plays a key role in Volkswagen’s global battery strategy. The region will become the second pillar of the internal battery division alongside Europe. The site’s proximity to Toronto and Detroit gives the company access to research facilities, a skilled workforce and established supply chains.

Executive and works council united against the workforce

The board, shareholders, IG Metall and the works council are working closely together on the restructuring of the company and the associated attacks on the workforce. They coordinate every move to suppress resistance and divide the workforce by country and location, between permanent and temporary workers, etc.

When the previous VW boss Herbert Diess was replaced by the former Porsche boss Oliver Blume in September 2022, this move was linked to the decision for a comprehensive strategic restructuring of the company.

This initially began with a brute restructuring at Audi. It was decided to cut annual factory costs by half by 2033. IG Metall and the Audi works council agreed to cut 9,500 jobs by 2025. The development of proprietary software for all future vehicle models was also given top priority. The software is considered the largest value-added component in the e-cars of the future.

But there was a second reason for the change of leadership from Diess to Blume, which, as is well known, was basically organised by IG Metall and the VW general works council chairperson Daniela Cavallo.

Diess had neglected the “trusting” cooperation with the powerful IGM works councils. The latter saw themselves increasingly ignored and their role as company police endangered. For example, the works councils had taken offence at the fact that scenarios commissioned by Diess about the loss of 30,000 jobs had been leaked to the public unredacted and had caused an uproar among the workforce.

Blume, on the other hand, is highly praised by the works councils because he closely involves them in his planning. Blume has made a good start as head of the company and enjoys “the fullest support” of the works council with his team, says Cavallo. They work together “in a spirit of trust and at eye level.” We have already shown in an earlier article what this “trusting cooperation” means.

In no other German company is the cooperation between management and trade union as sophisticated as at Volkswagen. IG Metall and the works council, with an army of full-time functionaries, ensure that the group's decisions are implemented smoothly and that there is no resistance to them.

At the Wolfsburg plant alone, there are 75 full-time works councilors paid by the company, 66 of whom belong to IG Metall. They are assisted by 2,500 shop stewards who, in the words of Business Insider, have “eyes and ears in every corner of the factory town.” In addition, the Wolfsburg works council has its own 70-strong administrative apparatus.

The role of the IGM and the works council is not limited to implementing the group’s decisions. They help to develop such decisions themselves. They sit on the supervisory board with equal representation and work closely with the major shareholders, the Porsche and Piëch family clans, whose assets go back to the Nazis. The SPD-led state government of Lower Saxony, which is close to the IGM, has a legally enshrined blocking minority. In addition, the Emirate of Qatar holds a 17 per cent stake.

The deputy chairman of the supervisory board is IGM chairman Jörg Hofmann. Together with Daniela Cavallo, chairperson of the general works council, he sits on the executive committee, where all important decisions are discussed.

According to press reports, internal working groups are currently meeting to develop concrete measures. Volkswagen then plans to present results to investors and analysts at its Capital Markets Day on June 21. As an example, VW CEO Schäfer mentions a changed production method in the plants. According to the board, this would save billions in the coming years.

There have been many austerity programmes at VW in the past, all implemented with the help of IG Metall and its works council leaders, but what the workforce of Volkswagen and its subsidiaries now faces assumes a completely new dimension.

The above-mentioned cuts and profit targets can only be achieved with unprecedented attacks. Cutting around 30,000 jobs at VW, halving production costs at Audi, closing down the Spanish brand Seat—all these proposals are on the table and are now being tackled by Blume in close cooperation with the works council and trade unions.

NATO members move toward formal alliance with Ukraine

Andre Damon

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy show the Joint Declaration after signing in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Saturday, June 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

As Ukraine’s offensive against Russian forces moves into full swing, NATO members are accelerating their efforts to initiate a formal military alliance with Ukraine or even have Ukraine join NATO.

On Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Ukraine to pledge, in writing, his government’s support for Ukraine joining NATO.

Commenting on the meeting, Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, wrote that Canada’s support for Ukraine’s acquisition of NATO membership “as soon as conditions allow” is “the strongest wording among all the G7 countries that are NATO members.”

He added that it was “[A]nother practical step on the Euro-Atlantic path, another powerful voice in support of Ukraine and another stage of preparation for the successful holding of the Vilnius NATO Summit in July.”

Zhovkva claimed that Canada was one of 20 NATO member states to agree in writing that they support Ukraine becoming a member of NATO.

Under conditions in which Ukraine is actively involved in a war with Russia, for Ukraine to join the military alliance would require NATO members to go to war with Russia.

Last month, Colonel Alexander S. Vindman, who had been an early advocate of sending US tanks and F-16s to Ukraine, endorsed an article in Foreign Affairs headlined “To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now,” by former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk.

Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, May 23, 2023. [AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky]

In May, French President Emmanuel Macron said he supports a “path” for Ukraine into NATO. In April, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg declared, “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO,” adding, “All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member.”

The flurry of diplomatic activity is meant to set the stage for the July 11-12 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, whose central focus will be the expansion of the NATO alliance with the accession of Sweden and moves to engineer a formal alliance between NATO and Ukraine.

The ongoing Ukrainian offensive is timed to create the best possible circumstances for the formalization of this alliance.

As the New York Times wrote on Saturday:

Some battlefield success, whether by decimating Russia’s army, claiming some territory or both … would build more support in Europe for some sort of long-term security guarantee for Kyiv.

Both Ukraine and Western allies have invested in the counteroffensive because, no matter the precise result, it will set the stage for the next phase of the war. The American and British plan to help secure Ukraine involves building support for robust security guarantees from the United States and NATO countries.

Over the weekend, the battlefield situation remained unclear, with indications that Ukrainian forces were able to seize multiple villages after incurring horrific casualties, including the loss of several main battle tanks and dozens of Western armored personnel carriers.

Over the weekend, the New York Times confirmed the Russian claim that at least three German Leopard 2 tanks and eight American Bradley vehicles were destroyed in recent days.

The Institute for the Study of War claimed, “Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11.” It added, “Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay.”

In his meeting with Trudeau, Zelensky officially confirmed the counteroffensive had begun, saying,  “Counteroffensive and defensive actions are being taken in Ukraine.” He added, “At what stage, I will not disclose in detail.”

In this supercharged climate, NATO is preparing to launch what the German Luftwaffe (air force) called “the largest air force deployment exercise in NATO’s history” based in Germany.

The Luftwaffe said that the war game “scenario is modeled on a NATO Article 5 assistance scenario.” This is a reference to the treaty commitment by all NATO members to go to war if any member is attacked. In this simulation, the Luftwaffe will attempt do what its commander-in-chief, Hermann Göring, failed to do in the Second World War: militarily defeat Russia.

During the exercise, scheduled to begin on Monday, the 10,000 military personnel and 250 aircraft will be involved in missions flying from Germany to the NATO member states bordering Russia.

The Wall Street Journal described the war games as follows:

The Air Defender exercise will practice the mass deployment of troops and hardware from the U.S. to Europe in response to various scenarios involving Russian attacks on NATO members.

The baseline scenario involves the enemy capturing the German port of Rostock in an attack that would trigger NATO’s common defense clause, known as Article 5. The response will include recapturing the port and other infrastructure, as well as defending cities and moving into offensive action.

Increasingly, the war is becoming an existential question for the United States. An article in Politico noted, “Senior U.S. officials are convinced that future support for the Ukraine war—and President Joe Biden’s global reputation—hinges on the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.”

US to sell drones to Taiwan in provocative intelligence-sharing plan

Peter Symonds

The Financial Times (FT) revealed last week that plans are well underway in the US to sell four MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones to Taiwan to provide intelligence on Chinese naval movements, to be shared in real time with both the American and Japanese militaries. The US Department of Defence approved the sale of the drones in May but has not commented on the intelligence-sharing arrangement, reportedly disclosed to the FT by four sources.

MQ-9B Sea Guardian drone [Photo: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems]

The decision is a further step in integrating Taiwan into US war plans against China and underscores the absurdity of US claims that it still upholds a “One China” policy under which it de facto recognises Taiwan as part of China. Washington is not only supplying military hardware, as it has done in the past, but drawing Taipei into its framework of military alliances in the Indo-Pacific directed against China.

The US is well aware that this move is highly provocative. “The sharing of data between Japan and Taiwan, between Taiwan and the Philippines, between the US and all three of them, is so crucial, but it’s also one of the big taboos because China will see it as escalatory,” an unnamed senior US military official told the FT.

According to the article, the US manufacturer, General Atomics, is due to deliver the drones to Taiwan, starting in 2025. The MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones are used for the surveillance of warships and submarines but are also able to carry what the manufacturer terms “a kinetic payload” that could include missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes.

If the surveillance from the Taiwanese drones were linked to the intelligence networks of the US and its allies, it would provide what is euphemistically called “a common operational picture”—that is, an overview of military operations in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters in the event of war with China.

Following the publication of the FT article, a US defence department spokesman declared that the US was “not currently planning to facilitate MQ-9 data sharing between Taiwan and Japan.” He did not deny, however, that information sharing is taking place between the US and Taiwan and would be greatly augmented by the drones.

Taiwan’s defence ministry declared it had “not yet been informed of plans to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones with the US and Japan.” However, National Security Bureau (NSB) director Tsai Ming-yen told the island’s legislature in late April that Taiwan was already sharing intelligence with the top-level Five Eyes spy network that includes the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Tsai explained that Taiwan was upgrading its computer technology to “connect with the Five Eyes alliance through a confidential system.” Questioned about the intelligence exchanges, Tsai said Taiwan was already sharing intelligence “in real time” and had allocated funding to create an “instant online reporting and communication mechanism” to the five countries.

While Japan is not a member of the Five Eyes network at present, it already shares intelligence with the US and discussion is underway to upgrade the relationship. In January, an article entitled “How Might Japan Join the Five Eyes?” published by the US think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted: “There are increasing calls from inside both governments—and outside government—for the United States and Japan to increase intelligence sharing since war planning requires a much higher level of information sharing between militaries.” That also raised the question of Japan joining the Five Eyes, it stated.

As the US intensifies its provocations and preparations for conflict with China, the integration of intelligence and closer military cooperation with Taiwan, in particular, has come to the fore in strategic and military circles.

The right-wing US magazine, National Interest, in February noted the significance of the appointment of Tsai as NSB director, with wide international experience as well as in Taiwan’s own intelligence operations. His ascension, it declared, “could reflect a shift in Taiwan’s approach to intelligence collection and sharing, which has responded to escalating and rapidly evolving threats to the island’s security.”

In an interview with the Nikkei last July, US congressman Steve Chabot said: “I do think that we need to coordinate military intelligence very closely and very cooperatively, between the United States and Taiwan.” He noted that the two sides were already working together in this area, but “that needs to be improved and developed even further.” Chabot is co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus and was ranking Republican on a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Asia.

The US focus on Taiwan is not accidental. Biden, following Trump, has deliberately undermined the One China policy by forging closer diplomatic and military ties with Taipei and stepping up provocative naval passages through the sensitive Taiwan Strait. While China has emphasised that it seeks reunification with Taiwan by peaceful means, it has not ruled out the use of military force should Taipei formally declared independence from Beijing.

Responding to the FT’s revelations last week, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin called on the US and Japan to “stop creating military tensions and causing trouble for stability in the Taiwan Strait… We firmly oppose military contact between Taiwan and countries that have established diplomatic ties with China.”

The US, however, has no intention of easing tensions with China, which it regards as the chief threat to its global economic and strategic dominance. Just as it goaded Russia into launching its invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration is seeking to provoke a conflict with China by deliberately inflaming what is arguably the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia—relations across the Taiwan Strait.

The moves to establish real-time intelligence sharing between Taiwan and the US and its allies to create a “common operational picture” is a warning of the very advanced character of the Pentagon’s plans for war with China—a conflict with disastrous consequences for humanity as a whole.

German air force conducts massive exercise targeting Russia

Florian Hasek & Johannes Stern

The escalation of the NATO war against Russia over Ukraine is taking on ever more dangerous forms. Last week, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated that NATO “ground troops” could be deployed to Ukraine. At the same time, NATO is organizing massive military maneuvers with which the alliance “practices” for a direct intervention in the conflict.

The most comprehensive exercises will take place in Germany beginning Monday. From 12 to 23 June, hundreds of fighter jets will be flying over the country as part of Air Defender 2023 and training for a state of total war. It is the largest aerial exercise in NATO history. In total, more than 10,000 soldiers from 25 nations are involved with 250 aircraft. They will be practising offensive maneuvers, potentially right up to the Russian border.

Two U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft assigned to the 158th Fighter Wing, Vermont National Guard, taxi to an aircraft shelter on Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, June 7, 2023, in preparation for Air Defender 2023 (AD23). [Photo: US Air Force Tech Sgt. Anthony Plyler]

Here are some more key figures about the exercise: The Bundeswehr (German army) has a contingent of 60 aircraft—including 30 Eurofighters and 16 Tornados—and four helicopters. The largest contingent of combat aircraft comes from the United States with 100. Around 90 percent of air traffic during the exercise will take place in German airspace or over the North and Baltic Sea coasts. Most missions start from locations in Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony, Bavaria and Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as from one location each in the Netherlands and the Czech Republic. Civilian air traffic will be prohibited for at least two hours daily in several areas during the exercise.

Large parts of German airspace are being de facto transformed into a war zone. The official website of the Bundeswehr states on the maneuver: “Depending on the activated airspace, the jet-fight practice flights take place from 2500 or 3000 meters altitude. Low-level flights of jets and cargo aircraft are planned in a part of the eastern air exercise area, the so-called Fight 1. This exercise area extends over northern Brandenburg, parts of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the Baltic Sea.” In addition, low-flying would take place at the military training sites Baumholder and Grafenwöhr.

Both the sheer scale of the exercise and its character make it clear that “Air Defender 2023” is not simply a routine maneuver. It is a direct component of the NATO war offensive against Russia. Representatives of the German ruling class in particular, which has already tried to subjugate Russia militarily in the two world wars, openly state this.

“History has caught up with us,” said Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Free Democrats), chairwoman of the Defence Committee of the Bundestag. “We have a hot war by Russia against Ukraine.” Military exercises such as “Air Defender” are always a signal to the other side: “You show what you can do.”

Based on the “script” of the maneuver, this includes a comprehensive war effort against the nuclear-armed power Russia. According to a Wall Street Journal report: 

“The baseline scenario involves the enemy taking the German port of Rostock, an attack that would trigger NATO’s joint defense clause known as Article 5. The response includes recapturing the port and other infrastructure as well as defending cities and launching offensive measures.”

The other training elements also read like a blueprint for direct intervention in Ukraine. “The scenarios include the fight against drones and cruise missiles, the protection of cities, airports and seaports as well as the direct support of ground troops,” writes the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

In addition, nuclear-capable F-16, F-35 and Bundeswehr tornado fighter jets will take part in the exercise, which, according to the Bundeswehr, will fly “daily missions” to Estonia and Romania—i.e., directly to the Russian border and towards the Black Sea. In doing so, the pilots and crews would fly according to the “train as you fight” principle—which means that the Russian military leadership would have to assume potential acts of war are being launched.

In a recent commentary on the escalation of the war, the World Socialist Web Site warned: 

“Given the statements of leading US and NATO officials that they are committed to the military defeat of Russia, the Putin government will be compelled to interpret all these actions as possible preparations for NATO incursions into Russian territory.”

And in another article on the Ukrainian counter-offensive, we wrote:

“In the event of a military debacle for Ukraine, there exists the extreme danger that the NATO powers will respond with the declaration that they will implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine, involving NATO warplanes attacking Russian aircraft, and the deployment of ground troops from NATO member states into Ukraine.”

Regardless of whether “Air Defender 2023” becomes the immediate starting point for NATO’s direct intervention into the war—and this danger exists—the maneuver is part of the development towards a third world war.

From the point of view of the German government, the maneuver is not only part of the war mobilization against Russia. It is also aimed at re-establishing Germany as a military leader and war power. Germany as a host proves “that we are not only talking about international responsibility, but also taking it on as a logistical hub in Europe and a leading nation in such a large exercise,” boasted Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democrats).

And Air Force Inspector General Ingo Gerhartz told the Wall Street Journal: “Germany needs to take much more responsibility and sometimes take the lead among NATO nations here in Europe... And we prove with this exercise that we are capable of doing so.”

The fact that Gerhartz, of all people, declared yesterday, at the base of the Tactical Air Force Squadron 51 “Immelmann” in Jagel in Schleswig-Holstein, that the preparation of the maneuver was “completed” may have triggered particular unrest in Moscow. Last June, the air force chief openly threatened Russia with the use of nuclear weapons, stating: “For a credible deterrent, we need both the means and the political will to implement the nuclear deterrent if necessary.”

The name “Immelmann” underlines the tradition in which the Luftwaffe operates. It is a tribute to the fighter pilot Max Immelmann, who shot down enemy aircraft during the First World War before he himself died in a mission on 18 June 1916. In the Third Reich, Immelmann was celebrated as a war hero and a unit was also named after him. The Battle Squadron 2 Immelmann played a central role in the war of annihilation against the Soviet Union and was used in numerous operations against Russian cities and positions of the Red Army on the Eastern Front.

The war-mongering media is also beating the drums for war in a way that has not been experienced since Hitler and the Nazis. Thus, the editorial in the current issue of Der Spiegel calls for a massive increase in the German war effort to defeat Russia in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army needs “even more urgent Western support now,” writes head of the foreign affairs desk Mathieu von Rohr. “The next few weeks and months will prove decisive. They will show whether Ukraine can repel the invading army. This war must not become frozen.”

Von Rohr praised Scholz’s militaristic outburst of anger last weekend and noted with satisfaction: “The good thing is that Germany and its Western partners have now understood: It is not enough to prevent Ukraine from losing. You have to help it win.” After the billion-dollar supply of “air defense,” “tanks” and “ammunition,” the German government must now, “as recently indicated by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, also examine the support of Western fighter jet deliveries.” Von Rohr continues, “The more successful the counter-offensive, the more hope there is for an end to the war.”

This argument corresponds to the murderous war logic of German militarism in the past century. The German elites in the Empire and among the Nazis also justified their total warfare with the cynical argument of wanting to achieve a quick “victory peace” or “final victory.” In fact, they prolonged the duration of the war, sacrificing millions more lives and committing increasingly horrific crimes.

While the ruling class is once again preparing for total war, the opposition in the population is enormous. According to a survey by Infratest dimap published on June 1, 64 percent of Germans reject sending combat aircraft to Kiev. Only 28 percent support it. The thundering fighter jets over Germany in the next few days will further fuel resistance to militarism and war.

Where Are the World’s Water Stresses?

John P. Ruehl

Around the world, significant issues are negatively impacting water security. While the situation appears dire, cooperation initiatives show some signs of relief.

In May 2023, the Arizona Department of Water Resources imposed restrictions on the construction of new housing in the Phoenix area, citing a lack of groundwater. The decision aims to slow population growth in one of the fastest-growing regions in the U.S. and underlines the dwindling water resources in the drought-stricken southwest.

As water levels in the Colorado River have declined, the states dependent on it (Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming) are increasingly at odds over how to distribute the declining supply.

The U.S. is not alone in contentious domestic debate over water supplies. Australian states have constantly quarreled over water rights across the Murray-Darling Basin. Disruptions to water supply or perceived misuse can cause immediate social unrest, and countries like Iran and France have seen violent protests regarding water recently.

Constant and affordable access to fresh water is recognized as a basic human right by the UN. And in addition to providing a foundation for life, fresh water is also crucial for industry and manufacturing, energy production, agriculture, sanitation, and other essential societal functions.

But around the world, its availability is threatened. Desertification, climate change, man-made water diversion, dam building, pollution, and overuse have seen rivers, lakes, and aquifers dry up. Since 2000, the world has added almost 2 billion people, putting further strain on global water infrastructure and supplies.

Poor water management and infrastructure also play a major role in water scarcity around the world. In Iraq, up to 14.5 percent of the country’s water is lost to evaporation and two-thirds of its treated water is lost due to leaks and poor infrastructure. Up to 25 to 30 percent of South Africa’s water is lost to leaks, while even in many industrialized countries, up to 15 to 20 percent of water supply is lost.

Inequality can also exacerbate water stress. Amid Cape Town’s water shortages in recent years, 14 percent of the population has been found to be responsible for more than half of the freshwater use in the city. Across Africa, one in three people already faces water scarcity, where “the availability of natural hygienic water falls below 1,000 m3 per person per year.”

On top of government control of water supply and infrastructure, multinational companies like Nestlé S.A., PepsiCo, Inc., the Coca-Cola Company, and the Wonderful Company LLC play a huge role in the global water industry. In 2013, former Nestlé CEO Peter Brabeck-Letmathe was forced to backtrack after a 2005 interview resurfaced where he stated it was “extreme” that water was considered a human right.

However, water privatization has increased significantly over the last few decades. In 2020, Wall Street allowed water to begin trading as a commodity, and today, “farmers, hedge funds and municipalities alike are now able to hedge against—or bet on—future water availability in California.” Monetization has even seen countries like Fiji, the world’s 4th-largest water exporter in 2021, face water supply shortages over the last few years.

Tap water remains drinkable only in certain countries, but fears of contamination can occur rapidly and incite alarm. After thousands of gallons of a synthetic latex product spilled into the Delaware River in 2023, Philadelphia authorities shut down a nearby water treatment plant. While it was ultimately deemed that tap water was still safe to drink, government warnings and alarm on social media led to panic-buying of water.

Contamination can also lead to longer-term damage to public faith in water infrastructure. After heightened levels of lead were found in Flint, Michigan’s drinking water in 2014 (together with the tepid government response), the local population remained hesitant to resume drinking it even after it had been declared safe.

Water security also has a major impact on relations between countries. The U.S. and Mexico have historically competed over water rights to both the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. Strong population growth on both sides of the border in recent decades, coupled with drought, has exacerbated bilateral tensions.

In 2020, tension over Mexico’s inability to meet its annual water delivery obligations to the U.S. from the Rio Grande, laid out in the 1944 Water Treaty, saw farmers in northern Mexico take over La Boquilla Dam, weeks before the deadline. While the crisis was eventually resolved, the fundamental issue of strained water flows remains ongoing.

Iraq has meanwhile increasingly accused Iran of withholding water from tributaries that feed into the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, with Iran accusing Iraq of failing to use water responsibly. Iraq and Syria have also disputed Turkey’s construction of dams and irrigation systems that have hindered the traditional flows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Relations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have similarly deteriorated since the latter began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011. The project has aggravated regional fears over Nile River water shortages, and though outright conflict has so far been avoided, it has inflamed concern over supply in Sudan, which saw deadly clashes over water shortages in 2023.

China has been labeled an “upstream superpower” because several major rivers begin in China. The construction of dams and hydropower plants on the Mekong River has caused friction with Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, while Kazakhstan and China have often disagreed over water rights regarding the Ili River.

Fears have also arisen that India and China, the world’s two most populous countries, could come into conflict over the Brahmaputra River and Indus River. But India and downstream Pakistan have their own disputes over rights in the Indus River basin that have raised regional concern.

Other countries have weaponized water as part of a wider conflict. Ukraine and Russia have both used water to harass each other since the first round of unrest between them began in 2014. Ukraine almost immediately cut off Crimea from water supply from the North Crimean Canal, shrinking the peninsula’s arable land from 130,000 hectares in 2013 to just 14,000 in 2017.

Russia reopened the canal following the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, Russian forces have since been accused of withholding water to some Ukrainian regions, deliberately flooding others, and targeting Ukraine’s water infrastructure. Both Russia and Ukraine accused one another of blowing up the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power station located on the Dnieper River on June 5, 2023, which flooded downstream communities.

The Islamic State (IS) was meanwhile instrumental in causing water shortages during its rise across Syria and Iraq a decade ago, by polluting and cutting off water supplies and flooding regions. The Taliban also repeatedly attacked water infrastructure in Afghanistan throughout the U.S.-led occupation of the country.

Longstanding disputes between the Taliban and Iran over access to the Helmand River also resulted in deadly clashes at their mutual border in 2023. And in recent years, cyberattacks have increasingly targeted the vulnerable water infrastructure of the U.S.

Thankfully, the future of water stress may be less dire than feared. Global population growth has slowed significantly over the last few decades and the population is expected to peak by the end of the century. Furthermore, regions experiencing water stresses are typically not high-population growth areas. The global community is also taking renewed steps to address global water security, with the UN holding in 2023 its first summit on water since 1977.

And even countries with longstanding disputes have recognized the importance of maintaining water supplies. The 60-year-old Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan has largely held despite persistent tensions between them. China has initiated cooperation with downstream states on transportation and water flows, including the Lancang-Mekong River Dialogue and Cooperation forum to share data and prepare for shortages and flooding.

There have also been recent breakthroughs regarding the GERD. Sudan’s de facto leader, Abdel-Fattah Burhan, recently came out in support of the dam, noting it could help regulate flooding. Greater cooperation between Ethiopia and Egypt could see less water evaporate from Egypt’s Aswan High Dam if it can be stored in the GERD during warmer months.

And though seawater desalination remains expensive and energy-intensive, it is becoming more efficient and widespread. In Saudi Arabia, 50 percent of the country’s water needs are met by desalination, while Egypt plans to open dozens of new desalination plants in the coming years. Currently, 70 percent of the world’s desalination plants are found in the Middle East.

Domestic U.S. initiatives are also promising. California’s Orange County recycles almost all of its waste water back to the nearby aquifer through the world’s largest water reclamation plant, which opened in 2008. Arizona, California, and Nevada also agreed in May 2023 to reduce water intake by 10 percent over the next three years, and Arizona’s decision to suspend housing construction may mark the beginning of more restraint over domestic water consumption.

Ongoing domestic and international cooperation will nonetheless be required to resolve water disputes and create sustainable water management practices. Preventing the use of water as geopolitical leverage or a tool of war, coupled with effective management of climate change and pollution, will be integral to avoiding wars over water in the future.