Study shows that COVID-19 causes cognitive decline among those without long COVID symptoms

Bill Shaw

CT image of a normal brain [Photo by Mikael Häggström, M.D. via Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 1.0]

A new study in eClinicalMedicine has found that healthy volunteers infected with SARS-CoV-2 had measurably worse cognitive function for up to a year after infection when compared to uninfected controls. Significantly, infected controls did not report any symptoms related to these cognitive deficits, indicating that they were unaware of them. The net effect is that potentially billions of people worldwide with a history of COVID-19, but no symptoms of long COVID, could have persistent cognitive issues without knowing it.

The study’s lead author, Adam Hampshire, professor of cognitive and computational neuroscience at King's College London, said:

It … is the first study to apply detailed and sensitive assessments of cognitive performance from pre to post infection under controlled conditions. In this respect, the study provides unique insights into the changes that occurred in cognitive and memory function amongst those who had mild COVID-19 illness early in the pandemic.

This news comes as pandemic mitigation measures have all but been abandoned by governments across the globe. Public health practice has been decimated to the point where even surveillance data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and resulting hospitalizations, deaths, and other outcomes are barely collected let alone published. 

The data that are available indicate, per the most recent modeling from the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) on September 23, that since the beginning of August there have been over 1 million infections per day in the US alone. This level of transmission is expected to persist through the remainder of September and all of October. For the months of August through October, these levels of transmission are the highest of the entire pandemic

COVID-19 wastewater levels in the United States indicating that over 1 million Americans continue to be infected every day [Photo by Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC)]

The study on cognitive deficits has been shared widely across social media, with scientists and anti-COVID advocates drawing out its dire implications.

Australian researcher and head of the Burnet Institute, Dr. Brendan Crabb, who has previously advocated for a global elimination strategy to stop the pandemic, wrote:

Ethical issues aside, this is a powerful addition to an already strong dataset on Covid-driven brain damage affecting cognition & memory. Given new (re)infections remain common, this work… should influence a re-think on current prevention/treatment approaches.

The study enrolled 36 healthy volunteers. These individuals had no history of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, no risk factors for severe COVID-19, and no history of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The researchers determined whether the volunteers were seronegative prior to inoculation, meaning that they had no detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. If such antibodies were present, it would indicate past infection or vaccination.

These procedures resulted in a total of data from 34 volunteers being included for analysis. Two volunteers were excluded from analysis because they had seroconverted to positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between the time of screening and inoculation. Notably, these two volunteers participated in all subsequent study activities, enabling a sensitivity analysis of the results that included them.

The researchers inoculated all 36 volunteers with SARS-CoV-2 virus in the nose and then quarantined them for at least 14 days. Volunteers only returned home once they had two consecutive daily nasal and throat swabs that were negative for virus. Thus, those volunteers who had an infection after inoculation spent the duration of their infection in quarantine. This quarantine was required by ethical study protocols, in order that the study itself not increase community transmission of the virus.

The researchers collected data on the volunteers daily during quarantine and at follow-up visits at 30, 90, 180, 270, and 360 days post-inoculation. The assessments included body temperature, viral loads from throat and nasal swabs, surveys on symptoms, and computer-based cognitive tests on 11 major cognitive tasks. The cognitive testing varied the particular exercise for each of the 11 tasks to avoid learning and memorization of solutions in subsequent sessions. Nevertheless, some tasks were more prone to learning so the researchers also studied the effect of infection on “learning” vs. “non-learning” tasks.

Of the 36 inoculated volunteers, 18 became infected and developed COVID-19 and 16 did not. The two groups did not differ significantly in key demographics. No volunteers required hospitalization or supplemental oxygen during the study. Every volunteer completed all five follow-up visits. 15 volunteers acquired a non-COVID upper respiratory tract infection in their community between the end of quarantine and the fifth visit at day 360. 

The researchers found that the infected group had significantly lower average “baseline-corrected global composite cognitive score” (bcGCCS) than the uninfected group at all follow-up intervals. At baseline, the two groups did not differ significantly. The difference between the two groups did not significantly vary by time, meaning that the infected group’s bcGCCS did not improve during the nearly year-long study.

Because the bcGCCS was a composite based on individual scores for the 11 cognitive tasks, the researchers also looked at which tasks in particular were impacted. They found that the most affected task was related to immediate object memory, in particular, recall of the spatial orientation of the object. There was no difference in picking the correct object itself, just its spatial orientation. This means that infected individuals had a hard time choosing the correct spatial orientation of the object they had just seen, for example, erroneously picking a mirror image of the object they had just seen. 

The results were not different based on sex, learning vs. non-learning tasks, or whether individuals received remdesivir or had community-acquired upper respiratory infections. 

Because the investigators controlled for so many factors including the strain of SARS-CoV-2, timing of infection, quarantine, and lack of prior infection and vaccination, the study provides high confidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection was responsible for the cognitive defects. The control of the timing of infection also enabled clarification of whether and when cognitive deficits occurred and improved. The differences between the groups were apparent by day 14 of quarantine and as noted previously, the deficits in the infected group did not improve let alone resolve.

The symptom surveys did not differ between the two groups. None of the volunteers, infected or uninfected, reported subjective cognitive issues or symptoms. Thus the infected volunteers with measurable cognitive deficits at one year post-infection were not aware of these deficits.

The study reaffirms prior research into persistent cognitive deficits and brain damage associated with COVID-19, including other studies which have found deficits among patients without symptomatic long COVID. Building upon this prior research, the latest study indicates that basically every single unvaccinated individual with a history of acute COVID-19 is at risk for persistent, measurable cognitive deficits.

Figure 1 Areas of the brain impacted by COVID infection (Source: UK Biobank study) [Photo by Gwenaëlle Douaud et al / CC BY 4.0]

Given that other studies have shown that vaccination reduces one’s risk of long COVID by roughly half, similar measurable cognitive deficits are likely prevalent among vaccinated people who suffer “breakthrough” infection, albeit likely at reduced rates of decline.

The study raises the urgent questions about the level of protection provided by vaccination, whether strains since the original “wild type” SARS-CoV-2 strain have similar effects on cognition, and what is the impact of these cognitive deficits on people’s performance at home, work, and school.

The study also adds to the large body of damning evidence that the ruling class “forever COVID” policy is of immense criminal proportions. Enabling a dangerous, mind-damaging virus to circulate among humanity worldwide represents a scale of inhumanity and dereliction of duty that is practically unfathomable. The malignity of this intentional policy is underscored by the current situation where the U.S. alone has had over 1 million new infections per day since August, with levels not projected to drop below 1 million until November.

Turkish government’s Medium Term Program: A frontal attack on the social conditions of the working class

Hakan Özal

The Medium Term Program (MTP), which sets out the government’s economic targets and policies for the next three years, was approved by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and entered into force.

While the official annual inflation rate was 52 per cent in August, the program, which focuses on maintaining fiscal discipline to reduce inflation and close the budget deficit, shows that the attacks on the living and working conditions of the working class will continue and deepen. The program accelerates the policy of turning the country into a haven for cheap and precarious labour for national and international companies.

Cover of the Medium Term Programme (2025-2027) [Photo: Turkish Presidency Strategy and Budget Directorate]

In his presentation of the MTP, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that Turkey’s economic strategies for the next three years are mainly focused on “sustainable growth” and “fiscal discipline”. Yılmaz stressed that the target of reducing inflation to single digits is a priority and that ensuring price stability is crucial in this process.

Yılmaz stated that the target is to reduce inflation to 41.5 percent in 2024, 17.5 percent in 2025, 9.7 percent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027. The upward revision of the rates compared to the previous MTP (2024-2026) is evidence that the government’s targets have not been met and that the updated rates should be treated with scepticism.

Following Yılmaz’s presentation, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that disinflation and price stability were priorities. Şimşek stated that fiscal and monetary policies will be implemented in a coordinated manner and public expenditure will be brought under control to strengthen fiscal discipline. Şimşek also reiterated that the aim is to reduce inflation to single digits.

The government wants to make the workers pay the price for achieving the objectives of the MTP, which is essentially the economic program of the bourgeoisie. Workers’ wages, whose purchasing power has been gradually reduced in recent years, are cited as the cause of high inflation. “The minimum wage increases to prevent the wage-price spiral will be in line with the disinflation process,” the MTP says. There is discussion in ruling circles that the minimum wage increase will be determined according to the target rate of inflation, not actual inflation, and that real wages will be further reduced.

In reality, the main source of inflation is not wage increases but corporate profits. This fact, which is also revealed by the data, was admitted by Erhan Çetinkaya, the head of TURKSTAT, who said the following: “Corporate profits are rising faster than inflation. The exorbitant corporate profits in Turkey have an upward effect on inflation, this has been scientifically proven”.

Under the leadership of Şimşek, who took office after the presidential elections in 2023, the government pursued a policy of high interest rates and pressure on wages. In the process, the Central Bank raised its key interest rate from 8.5 percent to 50 percent, while real wages continued to fall.

The official annual inflation rate, which was 38 percent when Şimşek took office, rose to 75 percent in May 2024. The real rate of inflation is much higher than the official rate. According to calculations by the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), the annual real inflation rate has been above 100 percent for a long time.

Real wages have fallen dramatically as the government, public and private sectors set pay rises for workers and pensioners based on official inflation. The government’s vehement refusal to raise the minimum wage in July 2024 has accelerated this trend.

In his study titled “The Convergence of Salaries and Wages to the Minimum Wage in Turkey and Related Income Distribution Problems”, published last August, Prof. Aykut Kibritçioğlu analysed the policy of reducing salaries to the level of the minimum wage (or even below) in Turkey, especially since 2014.

Kibritçioğlu explains the cost to minimum wage workers of not raising the minimum wage in July as follows: “If the CBRT’s inflation forecast for 2024 (the end of the year) of 38% is correct ... then the real loss in the minimum wage for the whole of 2024 will be 22.7%.”

In addition to wage suppression, the MTP will accelerate attacks on working-class conditions and cuts in social spending.

The expansion of flexible and precarious work is an important part of this. The program states that “active labour market policies will be supported by more flexible employment models to provide human capital for the needs of the economy in the short term”.

While the MTP plans to reduce the public contribution to the social security system, it is assumed that the inequitable pension system will continue. The program aims to introduce the supplementary pension system (TES) in the last quarter of 2025. It also plans to abolish severance pay, which is crucial for job security.

The reduction in the social security budget is an indication that demands for improvements in pensions will not be met. The lowest pension is only 12,500 liras, well below the current minimum wage of 17,000 liras (US$500). According to calculations by the pro-government trade union confederation Türk-İş, the minimum monthly food expenditure (hunger line) for a family of four was 19,200 liras in August. The poverty threshold for a family of four is 62,700 liras.

The MTP states that public spending will be cut in order to achieve the targets. However, the cuts in public spending do not target the tendering system, which is a method of transferring wealth from the workers to big business, and the waste of public resources by the bureaucracy. The cuts target social spending in critical sectors such as education and health, which have been massively attacked in recent decades, and the limited rights of public sector workers.

Turkey, a member of the imperialist NATO alliance, which is escalating the war against Russia in Ukraine towards a nuclear conflict and fully supporting Israel’s genocide in Gaza, is increasing its military spending while cutting social spending. While Turkey’s military expenditure has increased by 59 percent in the period 2014-2023, the military expenditure in 2023 has increased by 37 per cent compared to the previous year and was reported to be 15.8 billion dollars.

The MTP sets a growth target of 3.5 percent for 2024, 4 percent for 2025, 4.5 percent for 2026 and 5 percent for 2027. In parallel with this growth, unemployment is expected to be 9 percent.

Economist Mustafa Sönmez commented in BBC Turkish on the contradiction between growth and unemployment targets and disinflation: “On the one hand they say they are pursuing a disinflation program, but on the other hand their growth targets are very ambitious and high. Disinflation means a shrinking economy, which in turn means shrinking employment and rising unemployment... In this program it is claimed that unemployment will not rise to double digits this year and next year and will remain at 9 per cent. This is not possible.”

The absence of issues such as addressing inequalities in income distribution, reducing the tax burden on workers, protecting workers’ rights and ensuring that workers share in economic growth indicates that the burden will fall heavily on the shoulders of workers. While labour’s share of national income was 40.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, it fell to 29.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2023.

The problems such as unemployment, inflation and financial crises, which are caused by the objective contradictions of the capitalist profit system, are experienced not only in Turkey but all over the world. The response of the ruling elites all over the world to these problems is more exploitation, elimination of jobs, reduction of social spending and transfer of resources to militarism and war.

The Biggest Military Base Empire on Earth

Greta Zarro

Image by David Hili.

U.S. foreign military bases provoke war, pollute communities, and steal land from Indigenous peoples

The United States of America, unlike any other nation on Earth, maintains a massive network of foreign military bases around the world, more than 900 bases in more than 90 countries and territories. If the peace movement is serious about ending the United States’ and its allies’ war-making, then this global constellation of bases must be curtailed.

The permanent stationing of more than 220,000 U.S. troops, weapons arsenals, and thousands of aircraft, tanks, and ships in every corner of the globe makes the logistics for U.S. aggression, and that of its allies, quicker and more efficient. Bases also facilitate the proliferation of nuclear weapons, with the United States keeping nuclear bombs in five NATO member countries, and nuclear-capable planes, ships, and missile launchers in many others. Because the U.S. is continually creating plans for military actions around the world, and because the U.S. military always has some troops “on the ready,” the initiation of combat operations is simpler.

Not to mention the fact that these bases act as a provocation to surrounding countries. Their presence is a permanent reminder of the military capacity of the U.S. Rather than deterring potential adversaries, U.S. bases antagonize other countries into greater military spending and aggression. Russia, for example, justifies its interventions in Georgia and Ukraine by pointing to encroaching U.S. bases in Eastern Europe. China feels encircled by the more than 200 U.S. bases in the Pacific region, leading to a more assertive policy in the South China Sea. With vastly more foreign military bases than any other country on Earth, the U.S. logically must lead the way in a reverse arms race.

Furthermore, the U.S.’s network of foreign military bases perpetuates empire — an ongoing form of colonialism that robs Indigenous people of their lands. From Guam to Puerto Rico to Okinawa to dozens of other locations across the world, the military has taken valuable land from local populations, often pushing out Indigenous people in the process, without their consent and without reparations. For example, between 1967 and 1973, the entire population of the Chagos Islands was forcibly removed from the island of Diego Garcia by the UK so that it could be leased to the U.S. for an airbase. The Chagossian people were taken off their island by force and transported in conditions compared to those of slave ships. Despite an overwhelming vote of the UN General Assembly, and an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice in the Hague that the island should be returned to the Chagossians, the UK has refused and the U.S. continues operations from Diego Garcia today.

Each base has its own story of injustice and destruction, impacting the local economy, community, and environment. The U.S. military has a notorious legacy of sexual violence, including kidnapping, rape, and murders of women and girls. Yet U.S. troops abroad are often afforded impunity for their crimes due to Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs) with the so-called “host” country. The lack of respect for the lives and bodies of Indigenous people is another product of unequal power relationships between the U.S. military and the people whose land they occupy. In essence, the presence of U.S. foreign bases creates apartheid zones, in which the occupied population, with second-class status, comes into the base to perform the labor of cooking, cleaning, and landscaping. Furthermore, the rise in property taxes and inflation in areas surrounding U.S. bases has been known to push locals out.

Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs) also often exempt U.S. foreign military bases from adhering to local environmental regulations. The construction of bases has caused irreparable ecological damage, such as the destruction of coral reefs and the environment for endangered species in Henoko, Okinawa. Furthermore, it is well documented at hundreds of sites around the world that military bases leach toxic so-called “forever chemicals” into local water supplies, which has had devastating health consequences for nearby communities.

Closing bases is a necessary step to right the wrongs of colonialism, to curb the environmental destruction wrought by militarism, and to shift the global security paradigm towards a demilitarized approach that centers common security — no one is safe until all are safe. This September 20-22, in honor of the International Day of Peace, World BEYOND War is organizing its annual global #NoWar2024 Conference focused on the theme of the U.S. military base empire — its impacts and the solutions. Throughout three days of sessions held in four locations around the world (Sydney, Australia; Wanfried, Germany; Bogotá, Colombia; and Washington, DC), and streamed on Zoom, speakers will address the social, ecological, economic, and geopolitical impacts of U.S. military bases in their regions, plus the powerful stories of nonviolent resistance to prevent, close, and convert bases to peacetime uses.

Karina Lester, a Yankunytjatjara Anangu woman from the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (APY Lands) in the far North West of South Australia, will speak about the impacts of nuclear testing felt by her people. Alejandra Rodríguez Peña, member of the Olga Castillo Collective in Colombia, will discuss the collective’s work for justice and reparations for victims of sexual violence by U.S. military personnel. Laura Benítez, a marine biologist, will detail the campaign opposing the construction of a U.S. base on Colombia’s Gorgona Island, which is home to unique ecosystems and rich wildlife. Ricardo Armando Patiño Aroca, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defense of Ecuador during the government of Rafael Correa, will share how the U.S. base in Manta, Ecuador was effectively shut down. Dr. Cynthia Enloe, renowned for her work on gender and militarism and the author of Bananas, Beaches and Bases, will explain how the presence of U.S. military bases impacts the local economy, shapes race relations within the community, and re-configures the sexual politics of a society.

On September 20-22, join us virtually — or in-person in Australia, Germany, Colombia, and the U.S. — for the #NoWar2024 Conference to hear from these and many other speakers about the impacts of the USA’s military base empire and how to work towards demilitarization and decolonization.

Thousands laid off in August and September in the technology sector as the global jobs bloodbath intensifies

Stephen Parker

Amazon headquarters in Seattle, Washington. [Photo by GoToVan, Flickr / CC BY 2.0]

The latest wave of mass layoffs is affecting tech workers across the industry. So far this year, according to Layoffs.fyi, more than 137,500 tech workers have been laid off by over 400 companies worldwide, while another tracker puts the number at over 215,402 laid off in the technology sector, according to TrueUp. 

On August 1, Intel announced a massive downsizing round, eliminating 15 percent of its workforce as part of a “cost savings plan” for 2025. This could affect anywhere from 15,000 to 19,000 workers. At the end of August, Apple announced plans to cut 100 jobs in their Online Services group, citing a “shift in priorities”.

In mid-September, IT hardware company Cisco announced it was laying off 5,600 workers, or roughly 7 percent of its workforce, while Microsoft reported letting go of 650 employees in their Xbox division. Most recently, IBM announced plans to close an entire research and development division in China, resulting in 1,000 additional layoffs for 2024.

Amazon has made two major announcements recently. The first one was regarding a mandatory return to office for five-days-a-week scheduling starting January 2025 for all corporate workers.

The next day, it announced the letting go of an undisclosed number of managers in order to “strengthen the culture of the company,” the new CEO of the company Andy Jassy declared. The exact amount is yet to be known, but the reported objective is to increase the ratio of employees to managers by at least 15 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

Tech workers took to social media and other forums to express their anger over these various announcements. 

On the anonymous employee social platform Blind, one worker at Meta said, “Companies are doing sneaky layoffs now. Meta is regularly doing little layoffs at an individual organization level so that they don’t have to make public announcements.

“They’ve turned up underperformance quotas and are terminating people in the name of performance. Google said it will also continuously keep doing small layoffs wherever they see an opportunity. Amazon is forcing some people to quit by forcing five day work from the office and reducing flexibility.”

This forced return-to-office policy comes amid an ongoing and very active COVID-19 pandemic surge. In the US, the summer wave has been particularly virulent, with numbers reaching up to 1.5 million cases a day in August. Updated vaccines availability are still very limited, and mitigation protocols have long been dropped, if not prohibited, as demonstrated by the recent wave of states passing, or attempting to pass, anti-mask legislation. 

Forcing workers to return to an office full time will create the conditions for additional waves of infection, therefore increasing the risk of the development of new variants. The ruling class is openly embracing the policy of “forever Covid” and the mass disabling of the working class, as another tool to subjugate workers to the imperialist interests manifesting themselves in the escalation of war in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs in the tech sector since 2022 as part of a ruling class counteroffensive against demands for higher wages by workers. This was the outcome of a conscious ruling class policy led by the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in order to drive up unemployment and drive down wages.

This year began with Google’s mass layoffs of over 12,000 workers, as part of an industry-wide cost-cutting frenzy, aimed at bolstering stock prices and appeasing Wall Street. Despite posting record profits, Google, like Apple, Dell, and IBM, made a calculated decision to prioritize profit margins over the livelihoods of its workers.

The layoffs in tech and other sectors have been driven not by financial necessity, but by the unrelenting pressure from hedge funds, investment firms and billionaires to drive up corporate valuations through “restructuring” measures, i.e., the destruction of jobs.

Whether in times of crisis or growth, it is the working class that shoulders the cost while the wealthy continue to accumulate obscene levels of wealth.

The working class, in particular, has been a central target of the ruling class attacks on jobs, especially among auto workers who have seen thousands of jobs slashed in the United States, Europe, Asia and internationally.

Just this year alone, the automotive company Stellantis announced it would slash over 2,500 workers at its Stellantis Warren Truck plant in Michigan, along with plans to cut over 25,000 jobs in Italy. The rest of the Big Three are also carrying out a massive attack on jobs as they prepare to transition the auto industry to electric vehicles and impose the cost of the transition on the working class. 

The ruling class, aided by their media outlets, are quick to promote “upskilling” as one solution to this crisis. Workers are encouraged to constantly retrain and adapt to new technologies in order to remain “relevant” in an increasingly ruthless job market.

The focus on upskilling shifts the blame for layoffs onto workers, suggesting that their obsolescence is due to an individual failure to keep up with technological advances, rather than the inherent logic of capitalism.

Highly educated and skilled workers are increasingly treated as disposable, while the wealth generated by the labor of the working class as a whole is concentrated in the hands of a shrinking elite. The wealth of tech billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Tim Cook soared even during the pandemic, while millions of workers faced job losses, pay cuts and evictions.

The tech industry, once seen as a career offering higher paying jobs for higher skills, is now undergoing the same process of consolidation, cost-cutting, and financialization that has ravaged other industries for decades, especially with the new advances in artificial intelligence. This trend is driven by the same underlying processes that have shaped the global economy under capitalism: the drive to maximize profits, often at the expense of long-term growth, stability and workers’ rights.

The layoffs in the tech sector is the result of this dynamic. Technology is advancing, but instead of benefiting the working class, it is being weaponized to destroy jobs and deepen inequality.

A recent report by ZipRecruiter found that every industry, from retail to manufacturing has now seen massive cuts to wages. The biggest was in retail where average posted pay decreased by 55.9 percent, while manufacturing was down by 17.3 percent. 

Another report by the Wall Street Journal titled “Bosses Are Finding Ways to Pay Workers Less” noted that companies are seeking to reduce labor costs by moving from the US to parts of the world where labor costs are cheaper, like Mexico or Eastern Europe. In the US, the WSJ report noted, companies are moving software jobs from cities like San Francisco and Chicago to lower cost cities in what industry experts are citing as “geographic arbitrage.”

The mass layoffs in the tech sector and the attacks on jobs and wages in other industries by the ruling class must be met with a counteroffensive of the working class to assert its right to a job. The working class, including technology workers, must recognize that their interests are irreconcilably opposed to those of the corporate elite.

Instead of the advances of technology, including in artificial intelligence and automation, being used against workers and enriching a tiny handful of billionaires, the gains of technological progress must be used to reduce the burden of labor, shorten the workweek and improve the standard of living for the vast majority of working people.

JVP/NPP leader elected as new president of Sri Lanka

Saman Gunadasa & Deepal Jayasekera

The election of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake as Sri Lanka’s new executive president, announced yesterday, is a reflection of the profound economic, social and political crisis impacting the country since its debt default in 2022 and the subsequent mass uprising that forced former President Gotabhaya Rajapakse to flee the island and resign.

JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake waves outside election commission office after winning the Sri Lankan presidential election in Colombo, Sri Lanka, September 22, 2024 [AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena]

The magnitude of the political shift is indicated by the fact that the JVP and its electoral front, the National People’s Power (NPP), has never before held the presidency and has only ever been a junior partner in government. In the 2019 presidential election, Dissanayake won just 3 percent of the vote as compared to 42 percent in the election on Saturday.

The fact that counting had to go to second preferences to decide the result underscores the disintegration of the Colombo political establishment in recent years under huge economic and political pressures. The two parties that have ruled Sri Lanka since formal independence in 1948—the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)—no longer exist in their past form.

The previous president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was anti-democratically installed by parliament to replace Rajapakse, heads the rump UNP which split in 2020 with the breakaway forming the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Wickremesinghe received just 17 percent of vote on Saturday, while SJB candidate and leader Sajith Premadasa gained 33 percent.

Wickremesinghe, who has been instrumental in imposing savage austerity measures demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has been ruling with the support of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)—the major component of a split in the SLFP. The SLPP vote on Saturday was divided—some supporting Wickremesinghe while others backed its candidate Namal Rajapakse who received just 2.6 percent of the vote.

The dramatic increase in the vote for the JVP/NPP is a product of two inter-related processes—the seething hostility and anger of broad layers of the population over the economic and social crisis that continues to worsen on the one hand; and significant support for the JVP/NPP in sections of the ruling class as the means for preventing any revival of the 2022 uprising from taking a revolutionary road.

The JVP and Dissanayake were able to exploit the mass opposition to the political establishment long dominated by figures and families such as Wickremesinghe, the Rajapakses and Premadasas, by posturing as a radical alternative and making false promises to alleviate the suffering of the masses. Its election rhetoric denounced the greed and corruption of previous governments in order to cover up the root cause of the plight facing millions in the global crisis of capitalism.

While often referred to as “Marxist” or “leftist” in the media, the JVP has long ago jettisoned its socialistic pretensions and rhetoric. Formed in 1966 on the basis of an admixture of Maoism, Castroism and Sinhala populism, the JVP led two disastrous uprisings of rural Sinhala youth that resulted in the slaughter of tens of thousands. It has since abandoned its weapons for seats in parliament and a place in the political establishment, but undoubtedly retains a certain radical aura.

Dissanayake’s promises to rebuild the economy and uplift the living conditions of the masses through the elimination of corruption and privileges for the ruling elites are based on a lie. The JVP/NPP has insisted that it will impose the IMF’s austerity agenda in return for a $US3 billion bailout that will mean a fire-sale of state-owned enterprises, the destruction of half a million public sector jobs, deep inroads into essential services, such as health and education, and continuing inflation as prices subsidies are eliminated.

Dissanayake has declared that he will renegotiate the terms of the loan, but the IMF has already made abundantly clear that there is no room for alterations. In fact, the IMF mission will return to Colombo in the next fortnight. Last month, mission head Peter Breuer bluntly declared that “Sri Lanka’s knife-edged recovery [is] at a critical juncture” and “timely implementation of all program commitments are critical… [to] put the economy on a firm footing.”

While promising social improvement to working people, the JVP has been reassuring the ruling class that it will act in their interests. Addressing a meeting of industrialists and businessmen convened by the NPP’s Business Forum on September 4, Dissanayake pledged the full protection of the profit interests of local and foreign investors under his government and assured them that an NPP/JVP government would not repudiate the IMF program.

In another sign that the JVP has the support of sections of the ruling class, outgoing President Wickremesinghe was quick to congratulate Dissanayake, declaring he was “confident” the politician, whom he referred to as “my president,” would “steer Sri Lanka on a path of continued growth and stability.” While Wickremesinghe warned during the campaign that an NPP-led government would crash the economy, his ringing endorsement of Dissanayake is an acknowledgment that a JVP government will quickly abandon any election pledges that conflict with the demands of international finance capital.

At the same time, having long ago abandoned its “anti-imperialist” demagogy, the JVP/NPP will continue the integration of the island into the US-led confrontation and war drive against China. Dissanayake has met with US ambassador Julie Chung several times, including in the midst of the 2022 uprising when she made a point of visiting the JVP offices. Obviously reassured that US interests would be supported, she declared that the JVP was “a significant party” that resonated with the public.

In another sign of the JVP’s foreign policy alignment, Dissanayake was also congratulated by right-wing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who emphasised Sri Lanka’s strategic significance and declared that he looked forward to strengthening cooperation with the island. In the lead-up to the election, Dissanayake visited India, a key strategic partner in the US war drive against China, to reassure New Delhi that the JVP was on board.

In his address to the nation on Sunday evening, Dissanayake appealed for national unity in a bid to obscure the JVP’s pro-business and pro-imperialist orientation and to delegitimise any opposition to its pro-capitalist policies. “Everyone—those who voted and didn’t vote for me—we have a responsibility to take this country forward,” he declared.

Significantly, the island’s Tamil and Muslim minorities do not regard the JVP/NPP with anything but deep suspicion and outright hostility. The JVP is steeped in Sinhala chauvinism and was a trenchant supporter of the devastating 26-year communal war against the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It defended the military’s war crimes, including the slaughter of tens of thousands of Tamil civilians in the final months of the war in 2009. Dissanayake received only 10 percent of the vote or less in the Tamil-majority North and East of the island.

Moreover, the widespread support for the JVP/NPP in other areas of the island will quickly evaporate as masses of working people realise that Dissanayake’s promises were a pack of lies when living conditions worsen. The Socialist Equality Party has warned that the JVP/NPP, like Wickremesinghe, will resort to police-state measures to suppress the inevitable renewal of strikes and protests. The NPP has been building collectives of retired military and police officers in preparation for repressive moves under its government.

Workers and youth should recall that in the late 1980s the JVP backed its reactionary nationalist campaign against the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord with the assassination of hundreds of political opponents, trade unionists and workers. It opposed the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord on the basis of denouncing “Indian imperialism,” which it has now dropped. However, Dissanayake will not hesitate to resort to anti-Tamil chauvinism, which is deeply embedded in the JVP’s political DNA, to divide and derail any mass movement against his government’s policies.

As he prepares to take office, Dissanayake indicated that he would dissolve parliament shortly and hold parliamentary elections as he wanted a government with a “mandate.” Currently, the JVP/NPP holds just three seats in the 225-seat parliament and Dissanayake clearly wants an early election to strengthen his position prior to ruthlessly implementing the IMF austerity agenda.

The election of Dissanayake demonstrates that the island is in a state of immense political flux. None of the issues that were raised in the 2022 uprising have been resolved, nor can they be resolved under a JVP-led government. Indeed the popular anger has welled up time and again in strikes and protests against the IMF austerity policies. The key role of the JVP and its trade unions in limiting and suppressing the opposition is undoubtedly one reason why the ruling class has turned to Dissanayake.

German government readies further war package for Ukraine

Johannes Stern

According to media reports, the German government is preparing another massive arms package for Ukraine, worth 1.4 billion euros. Der Spiegel writes this includes 50 individual items, including “an ammunition package for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, a further 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, numerous reconnaissance and attack drones, as well as extensive spare parts packages for weapons systems already delivered”.

German self-propelled howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000 ("tank howitzer 2000") [AP Photo/Michael Sohn]

The news magazine quoted from an internal document stating that the weapons “will mostly be implemented this year and brought to bear on the battlefield.”

The draft emphasises how aggressively and feverishly the imperialist powers are working to avert a collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces at the front. The “significant increase in the combat strength of the Russian armed forces” makes further arms deliveries indispensable, Der Spiegel continues, quoting from the paper. Unlike Ukraine, the Russian army is able “to overcompensate for its personnel and material losses”.

Berlin is pursuing the insane goal of turning the tide on the battlefield. The Ukrainian armed forces need drones that are resistant to Russian jamming systems as soon as possible along with more spare parts, “otherwise there is a risk of ‘high failure rates’ in the weapons systems supplied by Germany, such as the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer or the Leopard main battle tanks,” according to Der Spiegel. The defence ministry hopes “that the existing repair workshops in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries can be adequately equipped at least until the end of the year”.

The new weapons package is directly linked to the imperialist powers’ plans to attack targets in the Russian heartland with missiles and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian special forces would have to “be further strengthened so that they can “destroy Russian air defences at vulnerable points” and “attack strategically important targets behind enemy lines”, continues Der Spiegel’s quote from the internal submission.

Last week, the German government had already made clear its support for the US and British plans to allow Kiev the use of NATO missiles to launch direct attacks against Russia. Among others, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius had claimed that the use of long-range NATO weapons against targets on Russian territory was covered by international law.

The latest plans underscore the central role played by Berlin in the current escalation, which increases the risk of a nuclear escalation of the war in Ukraine. Last week, the German government massively expanded its arms deliveries to Ukraine. The following new items can be seen on the official list of military support provided:

• 22 Leopard 1 battle tanks
• 22 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAP)
• 5 multipurpose Bandvagn 206 (BV206) tracked vehicles
• 1 All Terrain Warthog Tracked Carrier (lead vehicle)
• 3 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks
• 2 TRML-4D air surveillance radars
• 61,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition
• 30 VECTOR reconnaissance drones with spare parts
• 20 RQ-35 HEIDRUN reconnaissance drones
• 20 surface drones
• 6 Hornet XR drones
• BIBER armoured bridge layer with spare parts
• 1 DACHS armoured engineer vehicle with spare parts
• 6 WISENT 1 mine-clearing tanks with spare parts
• Material for explosive ordnance disposal
• 16 ground surveillance radars
• 2 AMPS self-defence systems for helicopters
• 3 border patrol vehicles
• 112 motor vehicles (lorries, minibuses, off-road vehicles)
• 8 Zetros tankers
• 10 MG3 machine guns
• 1 million rounds of small arms ammunition

Berlin has already spent more than €20 billion arming Ukraine for war. According to the German government, the funds for the “strengthening initiative” will amount to around €7.1 billion in 2024 alone. In addition, there are commitment authorisations for the following years amounting to around €6 billion. In addition, around €5 billion were spent on military support for Ukraine in 2023 and around €1.6 billion in 2022, with a further €2.9 billion in commitment appropriations.

The military budget is being continually increased in order to finance these enormous war funds. In his speech in the Bundestag (parliament) last Wednesday at the first reading of the 2025 budget, Pistorius stated: “We are doing everything we can to strengthen our defence capabilities and to continue to support Ukraine […].” However, he added, “[…] in order to continue our support as energetically as possible, we will need more funds […] in the future.”

Pistorius emphasised that the 2025 defence budget of over €75 billion (53.25 billion in the regular budget and around 22 billion from the €100 billion “special fund”) would be the highest in the history of the Federal Republic. This year, for the first time in over 30 years, Germany is spending two percent of its gross domestic product on defence.

But all this is not enough. In the face of “crises and conflicts, ladies and gentlemen, it is also clear: that will not be enough,” Pistorius called out to the parliamentary deputies. “We will have to spend more money in the future, that is, more than the 2 percent.” There was “no way around it.” Things that have been overlooked in recent years were being “caught up on at top speed now.”

Pistorius boasted that the government had “already been able to initiate 42 major procurement proposals together with parliament before the summer break”. Among other things, 105 Leopard 2 A8 battle tanks, two more class 126 frigates, Patriot air defence systems, Skyranger communication satellites and various ammunition had been ordered.

He also said that he was “working closely with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and our partners in industry to strengthen our security and defence industry and make it more resilient”. He added that big business and industry had to be “set up in such a way that they can quickly increase their production and delivery capacities in an emergency and adapt them to demand”. Here, too, he said, “speed is of the essence”.

In other words, Berlin is concerned with building a war economy and militarising society as a whole in order to make Germany “fit for war” again (in Pistorius’ words) after two catastrophic world wars in the 20th century. “A rapid and comprehensive growth and sustainability capability in an emergency are of fundamental importance,” emphasised Pistorius. His proposal for the new military conscription would create “the urgently needed basis for this”.