TTP AND THE KARACHI AIRPORT ATTACK

Karachi has been generally referred as the City of
Lights. But this Sunday, unfortunately it became the
City of Flames – literally and figuratively, with its airport
being attacked by the Pakistani Taliban and smoke
spiralling out.
While in the coming days there are likely to be multiple
analyses on this attack, two simple questions need to
be addressed – what does the attack say of what is
happening, and what does it mean for the events to
come.
Just a week before the attack on Karachi Airport, the
social, print and electronic media was full of reports
discussing the split within the Taliban, especially in
Waziristan. One of the Mehsud factions led by Said
Khan Sajna announced in public that they are leaving
the TTP fold; one of the spokespersons of the Sajna
faction was reported to have announced the following
as the reason for the split: “The central leadership has
gone into the hands of unseen forces, sectarian issues
and extortion in the name of Taliban…We have decided
to go our own way.”
Following the above difference, there was a general
belief and expectation that the Pakistani Taliban under
the leadership of Fazlullah would be weakened and easy
to target by the State forces. The fact that Sajna, who
had announced the split belongs to the Mehsud tribe in
Waziristan made many to believe that with the
Mehsuds, the most powerful groups within the TTP
deciding to part ways, the TTP would lose its impact
and importance. Immediately, following the above
announcement, the government also announced a group
of tribal elders in Waziristan to evict all the foreign
fighters from the region; the State gave them a 15 days
ultimatum.
The attack on Karachi airport by the Pakistani Taliban
should be interpreted in the above background. Days
within the announcement of the split and the ultimatum,
the TTP decided to answer to those two developments
in an appalling manner. From New York Times and
Washington Post in the US to the Sydney Morning
Herald in Australia, every news agency – print and
electronic covered the horror and gave substantial space
to what had happened in their front pages and
editorials.
So, the Pakistani Taliban has sent a strong and
powerful statement not only to the State in Pakistan,
but also the rest of international community, that
neither the split within the ranks, nor the announcement
of an impended attack would frighten them. This seems
to be the first major statement of the TTP’s attack on
the Karachi Airport.
Second, the attack in Karachi, far away from what is
believed to its nerve center – the tribal agencies of the
FATA along the Durand Line also convey the reach of
the TTP. And this is not the first attack in Karachi. Few
years earlier, in May 2011, the Taliban carried out a
similar spectacular attack on the PNS Mehran, a Naval
base in Karachi, destroying warplanes and also a P-3C
Orion using just rocket-propelled grenades and heavy
machine gun fire. A similar strategy was used few days
ago in the Karachi airport attack as well.
Third, the attack also reveals the ability of the TTP to
carry out high profile attacks on a regular basis.
Consider the following attacks after the assassination of
Benazir Bhutto since 2007 – on the GHQ in Rawalpindi
(2009), PNS Mehran in Karachi (2011), Minhas Airbase
in Kamra (2012) and Bacha Khan International Airport in
Peshawar (2012). And in almost all these cases, it was
not a huge attack, in terms of numbers; almost like the
fidayeen attacks that J&K witnessed during the last
decade – a small group of well trained and battle
hardened militants (in the case of Karachi Airport attack
– ten militants) creating a huge mayhem, leaving
security, economy and regular life in tatters.
It clearly reveals a pattern in terms of both the reach
and ability of the TTP; and also perhaps it highlights
the failure of the security and intelligence agencies.
Worse, some analysts within Pakistan even consider,
that there could be some information from inside. A
targeted suicide attack of two military/intelligence
officers near Islamabad few days ago, by the bombers
dressed as beggars in a railway crossing make a section
suspect that the TTP could be getting some insider
information.
Besides what has happened, what this attack means for
the future is also equally important. The Karachi Airport
is no ordinary one in the region; it is the largest
international airport in Pakistan, acting as a powerful
connectivity hub and economic gateway to the country.
All leading airlines and cargo planes have Karachi as
their main destination than Lahore or Islamabad. The
security situation in the rest of Pakistan had already
made many of the airlines and related agencies to cut
down their operations. With this attack very much inside
the Airport, one is likely to see further curtailing of
international airlines from Europe in particular, which
further acts as a hub to North America.
With the recent budget announcement and the
expectation to revive the economy and foreign direct
investment, the Airport attack is likely to leave huge
trails in the subsequent months on the potential to
attract investment, thereby improve the country’s
economy. With bad news spreading all over the world
about what is happening within Pakistan, any decline in
the air traffic further means limited travel to know and
understand the ground situation. This connectivity is
important for any major corporation to make any
investment in Pakistan.
The Karachi Airport attack would also mean the end of
peace talks between the government and the TTP, which
was actually being dragged during the last few months.
Early this year, there were so many expectations within
a section, especially within the Sharif government that
the talks between the TTP and the government would
ultimately yield to peace. Both sides announced multiple
committees and even few ceasefires. There were even
few reports that the military was not totally happy with
what was happening in terms of the talks between the
TTP and the political leadership. A section within the
Civil Society even suspected that the TTP would only
use this opportunity to hit back at a later stage. It
appears, that is what has happened.
The dialogue between the TTP and the government is
now in tatters. Will the civilian and military leadership
come together now, and start a full blown war against
the militants and militancy within Pakistan? Will
Pakistan stand up against violence and militancy?
In the past, as explained earlier in this commentary,
there were numerous instances of high profile attacks
led by the TTP, even on military targets for example the
bases of Air force and Navy, and also on the GHQ in
Rawalpindi. There was even a suicide attack on the
President. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s response to
militancy so far has been divided with one section
strongly advocating negotiations as a means. The State
should attempt the same as a strategy; but when such
an approach does not yield the desired result, it should
also be open to pursue a military strategy. Perhaps, a
section in Pakistan, even within the Establishment
believes that these non-State actors would be an asset
elsewhere in the near future.
What has happened in Karachi Airport shows the reach
and resolve of the TTP to continue its violent march