Though the spotlight on West Asia is understandably
focused currently on the unquestionably exciting
prospect of a welcome and desirable reconciliation
between the US and Iran, which is more than likely to
happen, contemporary ground realities and trends in
large sections of the Arab World increasingly suggest
that Islamic extremism, personified by al Qaeda and its
affiliates in West Asia, is potentially an even greater
destabilising factor than the standoff vis-à-vis Iran had
been.
Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen
Though four dictators were overthrown as a result of
the revolutionary turmoil in the Arab World, except in
tiny Tunisia which is the only success story, the current
situation in Egypt, Libya and Yemen is far more unstable
than when the dictators were ruling. In Libya, a large
number of armed militias have carved out fiefdoms
which they control, with the central government
becoming a nominal entity with its writ being virtually
non-existent in vast swathes of the country. Libya is a
Somalia in the making.
The Muslim Brotherhood has been Egypt’s and the Arab
world’s pre-eminent Islamic entity known for its
outstanding social and welfare services to the poor and
rural populations in particular. It was elected to form
the government which, after only one year in power, was
overthrown by the army, albeit demanded by a very
large number of protestors against ‘Islamic’ rule. Since
then, every week dozens of its supporters and many
Egyptian army and police personnel have been killed in
clashes between them.
The Brotherhood has been banned once again - dubbed
a terrorist organisation; this does not augur well for the
prospects of political Islam which is natural and
fundamental to the success of democracy in the
overwhelmingly Muslim Arab countries. It is very likely
that Gen Sisi, the present Army Chief and architect of
the hard line against the Brotherhood, is elected the
next President. All this will encourage support for
extremist groups as the only alternative to dictatorial
and Army rule.
Iraq and Syria
Syria is engulfed by a particularly devastating and
destructive civil war. More than 1,20,000 people have
been killed. Almost four million Syrians are refugees in
neighboring countries and five million have been
internally displaced. The dismantling of the Saddam
regime led to the border between Syria and Iraq
becoming porous; in the last year it has become
nonexistent for all practical purposes – huge spaces
between Baghdad and Damascus are controlled by
many different groups of Islamist fighters of various
hues, pre-eminent among them being the Iraq-based
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), an al Qaeda
outfit.
Amongst Islamist groups fighting the Assad regime, the
ISIL is the best armed and most effective. Some weeks
ago it had established control over most of Aleppo
which is Syria’s largest city and in the process routed
not only government forces but also of other rebel
groups, and of the Western and Gulf countries’ backed
Syrian National Coalition and Syrian National Army. The
ISIL consists only of foreigners, mainly Iraqis, and its
brutality and single-minded commitment to the
establishment of an Islamic Emirate has now caused
other rebel groups, in particular the recently formed
Islamic Front, and the Syrian affiliate of the al Qaeda,
the al Nusra Front, to treat the ISIL as the major enemy
rather than the Assad regime. It is ironical that after so
much bloodshed Assad is likely to remain in power, but
of an anarchic and shattered Syria. Iraq is rapidly
slipping back into the anarchy that prevailed during
2005 to 2008.
After Arab Spring: Is the Situation Better or Worse
Today?
Politics within all these countries is increasingly
determined by the gun. Thus, the singularly
inappropriately termed ‘Arab Spring’, hailed as the
belated ‘Enlightenment Moment’ for the Arab World, has
left it in a far worse situation than before. Islam in the
Arab World and West Asia is at war with itself -
between moderates and extremists; between Shias and
Sunnis; between pro-West Muslim countries (Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, UAE) and anti-West Muslim countries
(Iran, Syria, Lebanon).
Today, several countries of the Arab world have become
a blood soaked cauldron of bigotry and hate torn by
sectarian violence. If this fratricidal conflict continues,
significant portions of Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen
could become like the Afghanistan of the 1980s and
early 1990s – a safe-haven and breeding ground for
terrorists.
Should South Asia, Especially India, be Worried?
Though the Arab countries themselves are the worst
affected, adverse consequences for the US, Europe and
the Indian subcontinent in particular, would also be very
much on the cards. This is particularly so in the context
of rising uncertainties as to what could happen in
Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops. Pakistan
has become a dangerous hotbed of extremism also.
India needs to be particularly wary.
The world needs to proactively address the current
mayhem in West Asia with a sense of urgency. The
imperative need of the hour is that the United Nations
takes the initiative to convene a conference of concerned
countries and major powers to take on extremism in the
Arab World and West Asia, including confronting the al
Qaeda outfits headlong, militarily if need be.
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