It has been over a month since China installed an oil rig
in the disputed South China Sea (SCS). Ever since,
China has shifted the location of the rig thrice. The
installation of the rig appears to be a well calibrated
move. Evidently, China has adopted a ‘salami
slicing’ (step-by-step approach) in the SCS. It took
over Mischief Reef from the Philippines in 1995;
established Sansha city on the Yongxing Island/Woody
Island a few kilometres from its Hainan Province; cut
the cables of the Vietnamese vessels; occupied
Scarborough Shoal; and is now constructing a runway
on Johnson South Reef. The rig appears to be their next
move in the region.
Subsequent to the installation, China issued an official
document titled ‘The operation of HYSY 981 grilling rig:
Vietnam’s Provocation and China’s Position’ on the 8
June, reaffirming its position. It has also taken the issue
to the UN. Chinese Deputy Ambassador Wang Min sent
a ‘position paper’ on the rig to the UN Secretary General
Ban Ki-Moon and asked the UN chief to circulate it to
the 193 members of the General Assembly. This is in
sharp contrast to China’s previous gestures. During the
Shangri La Dialogue, Lt. General Wang Ghuanzhong of
the People’s Liberation Army reiterated China’s position
that territorial disputes should be settled bilaterally
between the claimants with clear indication that the US
should keep away from the disputes. Until now China
stood for bilateral solution of disputes and was against
any arbitration. By issuing the statement and sending a
‘position paper’, China is itself internationalising the
issue.
These developments have further increased the tension
in the SCS dispute making it further complicated. It is
hence perplexing to understand as to why China issued
a ‘position paper’ on the rig in the disputed area. What
is China’s end game in the region?
Rig HYSY 981 in the Disputed Area
The rig is placed between the Paracel Islands occupied
by China and the Vietnam. Since 1974, China occupied
the Paracels (Xisha/Hoangsa Island).The problem arises
with the different interpretation of the position of the rig.
According to Vietnam, the rig is operating within 200
nautical miles of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and
on its continental shelf but China says that it is
operating in its own territory. China and Vietnam have
already signed the agreement on the delimitation of the
territorial seas; EEZs and the continental shelf in the
Beibu Gulf (Gulf of Tonkin); and the agreement on the
fishery cooperation in the region in 2000. Till date, this
is the only maritime boundary agreement that China has
had with any other country.
There are two reasons for China establishing the rig;
energy security and the strategic concerns in the region.
Since 1993, China has been a net importer of oil and is
heavily dependent on supply from abroad. Thus, to
reduce the dependence on foreign oil, China is in the
process of exploring different plausible locations; and
the SCS has approximately 11 billion barrels of oil
reserves and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. On
the strategic front, there is an increasing role of external
powers in the region. China Daily reported that “the
United States was the real threat…pointing to U.S.
cyber-warfare and missile defence capabilities and the
fact that U.S. defence spending far exceeded China‘s.”
Nevertheless, the most likely rationale for the
installation of the rig is that it is China’s response to
the changing strategic environment of the SCS.
China's Endgame in the Region
China has realised that the SCS is vital for both
solidifying its influence in the Southeast Asia, as well as
for its regional aspirations. China aspires to play an
important role in the region with minimum US influence
and has thus turned towards multilateral solution to the
dispute. Perhaps it has realised that if it continues
defying international laws and UN mandates, it will give
more space for the US to interfere in the region as is
evident in the case of the enhancing US-Philippines
alliance.
Yet, another reason for putting forward the ‘position
paper’ is to stop the discussion for a ‘Code of Conduct’
in the region which is already due after the ‘2002 code
of Conduct’. By putting forward the ‘position paper’,
China is trying to make its own stand clear and thereby
putting the blame on the Vietnam.
At this juncture, China’s strategy in the region appears
to be a combination of tactical timing and ambiguity.
Thus the installation of the rig has taken the dispute to
a multilateral forum. However, its solution remains
uncertain.
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