ISIL, IRAQ AND SECURING INDIA'S INTERESTS

The rabbit hole of Iraq springs up bizarre and
devastatingly new challenges for the US even a decade
after its invasion of the country. The embarrassment
does not end there. The US is now forced to re-enter
the quagmire and may fight alongside its arch-enemy
Iran, much to the chagrin of its most ardent allies in the
region – the Arab Gulf states and Israel.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a new
virulent strain of Wahhabi militancy, recently took
control over the Iraqi cities of Mosul and Tikrit and
according to some regional commentators threatens to
rejig the region’s entire post-Ottoman shebang.
Strangely, a large part of the ISIL’s forces comprises
remnants of Saddam’s so-called secular regime –
particularly the Naqshbandi Army operating under the
command of the fugitive Ba’ath Party leader Izzat al-
Douri. In response, Shiite militants have answered the
call to arms by Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani in their
thousands, raising fears that Iraq might soon
disintegrate on sectarian lines.
These unforeseen events in Iraq follow other
extraordinary developments that are fast transforming
the geopolitical landscape of the region. Signs of a
possible détente in relations between the US and Iran
have taken the world by surprise. The six oil-rich Gulf
monarchies that constitute the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) have been particularly outraged by the so-called
US ‘double-cross’, with Saudi Arabia being so incensed
that it refused to take the UN Security Council seat to
which it was elected. The country has even warned of a
major shift away from the US and is seeking to build an
Asian pivot for a new security architecture.
The US-GCC relationship first came under strain in
2011, when Washington sided with democratic forces
that deposed Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and then
recognised the Muslim Brotherhood-backed president
Mohamed Morsi. Fissures widened following the US’
inaction in Syria and its ‘neutrality’ during the Bahrain
uprising, which confirmed GCC fears that Washington
was no longer the guarantor of Gulf security. The last
straw was the surreptitious nuclear deal with Iran last
November, which apparently did not consider taking Gulf
countries into confidence.
Thus, the trust is breached and the 40-year-long ‘oil-
for-security’ pact seems past its sell-by date. The
phenomenal increase in the US’ shale oil and gas
production has helped the superpower outgrow its
‘addiction to Middle East oil’, allowing it to act more
independently in the region. This has impaired
confidence in regional security arrangements, which
could have far-reaching implications for West Asia and
the world.
For its part, India would have to continue walking a
diplomatic tightrope between Iran and the GCC, building
on the trust and goodwill it has earned among all sides
in a volatile region. Interestingly, the early signs of thaw
in the US-Iran relations augur well for New Delhi, as this
had been a major point of contention in Washington-
New Delhi relations. India has maintained diplomatic
ties with Iran and both have shared geostrategic
interests, particularly in Afghanistan and Central Asia. A
breakthrough in the US-Iran negotiations could also
allow India to increase its oil imports from the Gulf
country – which are currently limited by the sanctions
regime. There is also ample scope for trade and cultural
exchanges.
Still, a wide gulf exists between Washington and Tehran
as the present thaw could dissipate any moment.
Moreover, any changes in regional relations should not
come at the expense of India’s historic and strategically
important ties with the GCC states. West Asia supplies
over 62 per cent of India’s oil imports, most of which
come from Arab Gulf countries. Moreover, the over 6
million-strong Indian Diaspora in the GCC states has
created deep human links between the two societies.
While 70 per cent of Indian expatriates in the GCC are
blue collar workers, over 20 per cent are professionals.
They remit about $30 billion to India every year.
Additionally, the GCC countries view the emergence of
Indian economy with great interest. With the rise of
major non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia and the
US, the Gulf is looking toward the Indian and Chinese
markets for sustainable demand. Again, following 9/11
and the 2008 global recession, Gulf capital is
increasingly seeking investment out of the West. A
significant degree of cultural comfort and confidence in
India’s property rights protection and rule of law (unlike
China’s) makes India an attractive investment
destination. However, the policy paralysis that dogged
India’s previous administration proved disappointing for
some corporations. It is hoped that with the coming of a
strong, new leadership in New Delhi, India may finally be
able to meet expectations.
However, the security architecture of the Gulf remains a
major concern for India. With the US influence in retreat,
India needs to actively engage with the GCC, Iran and
Iraq to secure its vital trade and energy interests. In
cooperation with other Asian powers such as China,
Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, it should
initiate building a durable, non-hegemonic security
architecture which ensures stability and peace in the
region.