Night Watch
Iraq: Situation update. News sources indicate
that some Iraqi government forces remain in
the Baiji refinery complex, but are
surrounded. Fighting also continues at Tal
Afar in the northwest, where another Iraqi
army unit remains.
Fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant (ISIL) also are engaged with Kurdish
militiamen south of Kirkuk.
Comment: Ultra-extreme Islamist propaganda
still warns that the terrorists intend to attack
Baghdad, but thus far they continue to work
on consolidating the territory they claim to
control. Multiple news services reported that
Iraq is assembling forces and making
preparations for a large counter-offensive to
take back the north.
Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin
spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki
over the phone and expressed his support for
Iraq.
"Putin confirmed Russia's complete support
for the efforts of the Iraqi government to
speedily liberate the territory of the republic
from terrorists," according to a Russian
statement released after the phone call.
Comment: Longstanding Russian interests
were disrupted by the US intervention. In the
last three years, Putin has been rebuilding
Russian ties with Iraq through arms
assistance. The Iraqi helicopter gunships that
are mentioned occasionally by the news
media were bought from Russia last year in
an arms contract worth more $4.3 billion.
Iraq purchased at least 40 Russian
helicopters, including Mi-28 NE Night
Hunters.
The first Russian-trained Iraqi pilots, crews
and technicians completed training last
autumn. Without those gunships, Iraq would
have little to no air power to bring against
ISIL and its supporters.
Turkey: Thinking about a Kurdish state . Turkish
political analysts and politicians are
rethinking their longstanding hostility to the
formation of an independent Kurdish state.
This is a reaction to the ISIL incursion and
the partial Sunni rebellion in northern Iraq.
One official said, "It has become clear for us
that Iraq has practically become divided into
three parts."
Comment: Kurdestan's stability has proven
beneficial and profitable for Turkey. The
Kurds made their second major sale of oil
today. Kurdish oil is exported through
Turkey. The ISIL incursion reportedly has
prompted Kurdish insurgents in Turkey to
return to Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region
to help defend it. Iran and the Kurdish region
are the only stable geo-political entities on
Turkey's southern and southeastern borders.
Turkey has opposed the formation of an
independent Kurdish state because Turkish
leaders judged it would pose an instability
threat to Turkey's Kurdish region. Now, even
in Ankara, the idea of redrawing the borders
of Iraq is more acceptable than it was before
the ISIL incursion. A change in Turkey's
policy from hostility to support of a Kurdish
state would be more revolutionary than the
creation of a Sunni state in Iraq.
Ukraine: Situation update. President
Poroshenko ordered his forces to cease fire
today and to halt military operations in
eastern Ukraine for a week. This is part of
Petroshenko's peace plan.
Russia immediately dismissed the peace plan,
saying that it looks like an ultimatum and
lacks an offer to start talks with the
insurgents.
Ukrainian parliamentary speaker Oleksandr
Turchynov said on 20 June that Ukrainian
security forces have shut down the
Ukrainian-Russian border. Petroshenko
promised the border would be closed by the
end of this week.
Russia: The US State Department spokesperson
said that the US has information that
additional tanks have been prepared for
departure. The US also said it has
information that Russia has accumulated
artillery at a deployment site in southwest
Russia, including a type of artillery utilized
by Ukrainian forces but no longer in Russia's
active forces.
Comment: Separatists reported that Ukrainian
forces ceased firing near Slavyansk, but
conditions at other cities were not clear. The
purpose of the ceasefire is to allow separatists
to surrender and give up their weapons.
The Russian leaders distrust Petroshenko
because he refuses to talk with the
separatists. Russia appears to be making
preparations to provide military equipment
support to the separatists that will enable
them to withstand the Ukrainian offensive
and compel Petroshenko to negotiate with
them.
If the Russians decide to send military
equipment to the separatists, Ukrainian
border guards would be noimpediment.
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