US, UKRAINE AND THE END OF UNIPOLARITY

When Ukraine became a sovereign independent republic
following the Soviet disintegration, a unipolar world
order was born. Now with Crimea’s secession from
Ukraine and the annexation to Russia, the death of the
unipolar world seems certain.
US unilateralism during the era of a unipolar world order
remained unchallenged.
There was no one to question then US President Bill
Clinton’s decision to rain missiles on Afghanistan as a
response to the bombing of two US embassies in Africa;
no one could challenge then US President George Bush’s
decision to unilaterally abrogate the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty, withdraw from Kyoto Protocol, invade
Iraq, and overthrow Saddam Hussein from power.
Incumbent US President Barack Obama promised to
promote a liberal world order; employ more diplomacy
and less force; end occupation of Iraq; talk Iran out of a
suspected nuclear weapon programme; bring North
Korea back to the Non-Proliferation Treaty; positively
engage the Islamic world; strive for establishment of a
nuclear weapon free world; reach out to the largest
democracy of the world; make China a responsible
stakeholder; make Russia a partner for peace; and many
more.
However, project Obama, although partially successful,
it has largely failed. President Obama can be given
credit for Iran’s decision to accept the détente with the
US, Syria’s willingness to destroy its chemical weapons,
US Navy Seal’s spectacular assassination of Osama bin
Laden, and his successful approach to stemming the
country’s downward economic spiral.
Nevertheless, his foreign policy flops appear more
stunning. The Arab world is clearly on fire with
dangerous political upheavals and unrelenting violence.
The White House will have to accept a fair share of the
blame for the Libyan chaos, Egyptian instability, the
interminable civil war in Syria, and the North Korean
nuclear tenacity.
Additionally, the US is not in a position to inspire
confidence among its Asian allies at the time of growing
Chinese assertiveness. All goodwill between India and
the US appears to have become a thing of the past
following the fierce diplomatic discord sparked by the
arrest and perceived mistreatment of an Indian consular
officer by the New York Police Department. The
Marshall Plan aid to Europe in the post World War II
period remains in the history books, and the present day
US is simply incapable of instituting a similar
assistance programme to rescue Europe from its current
economic calamity.
In other words, the unipolar world order was already
facing the risk of extinction, when Russia’s response to
the political turbulence in Ukraine threatened to alter
that order. During the period of Soviet disintegration,
pundits could not predict the final outcome of events in
Moscow. Similarly, in the case of the Ukrainian political
turmoil, no one could imagine the speed with which
Russian President Vladimir Putin would be able to
dismantle Ukrainian political geography and annex
Crimea.
The Obama administration’s response was slow and
meek. Along with the EU, it imposed sanctions against
some Russian individuals. Although Russia’s
membership from the G8 and its voting rights in the
Council of Europe was suspended, no sanctions could
be imposed on critical sectors of the Russian economy,
and nor could any military measure be contemplated.
High rhetoric and docile measures highlight
Washington’s response.
All these are the result of the resilience of a resurgent
Russia and the relative decline of the US. The US
military presence in Europe is far less today compared
to that during the height of the Cold War. There are no
US aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean; US navy
personnel numbers in Europe have reduced to 7000 from
40,000; and army personnel numbers have been
reduced to 66,000 from over several hundred thousand
in the recent past.
Reduction in the US military presence has coincided with
the increased Russian leverage in Europe, especially in
the energy sector. Germany purchases one-third of
Moscow’s gas; Russia accounts for over half of
Austria’s gas imports; and Finland imports all of its gas
from Russia. Germany’s exports to Russia stand at $40
billion a year; France’s banks have over $50 billion
claims from Russia; and UK reaps billions of dollars of
profit from the indulgences of Russian Oligarch in
London.
How can the US and the EU unite to resist expansion of
Russian sway over Ukraine?
While the European allies have developed mistrust in the
US since the Snowden episode, Asian allies lack
credibility in the US in the wake of Chinese muscle
flexing. Brazil is upset with the US’s eavesdropping
activities and India is more than offended by the State
Department’s handling of the Devyani Khobragade
incident.
President Obama managed his relations with US allies,
strategic partners and emerging powers shoddily, and
finds it difficult to deal with Russian advances in
Ukraine. South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Crimea have
fallen into Russian hands, and three provinces in
Eastern Ukraine seem to be in the queue. As the
dominoes fall, the unipolar global order also appears to
be breaking down.