As the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
prepares to pull out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014,
it is of significance to assess larger American interests
at play in the country and the region. How will the US
leverage its resources to secure those interests?
American Strategy: Keeping a Residual Force
Several voices in the US are of the view that the troop
drawdown is reasonable. The US has achieved the
mission of killing Osama bin Laden and has paralysed al
Qaeda's operational structure. The prevailing argument
is that the war that has been expensive and has
resulted in the loss of several thousand American lives
needs to finally end. Yet, official declarations talk in
terms of ensuring stability in Afghanistan that requires
US presence for training and supporting the ANSF while
focussing on counter-terrorism missions.
What remains understated is how Afghanistan, as an
important geopolitical asset, serves larger American
interests in the region. It is the Pentagon’s only military
base in Central Asia, with Iran to the west, Pakistan to
the east, China to the northeast, various resource-rich
former Soviet republics to the northwest, and Russia to
the north. A presence in Afghanistan would not only
serve to enhance economic and trade interests but also
help the US keep a close tab on these countries.
This explains US involvement in painstaking negotiations
to conclude a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that
would enable it to maintain bases post-2014. The
prospect of a continued presence in Afghanistan has
also led the Obama administration to seek a peace deal
with the Afghan Taliban by offering them a de-facto
diplomatic mission in Qatar.
The charged confrontation between the US and Russia
over Ukraine has further boosted the support towards
maintaining bases. Former Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice in a Washington Post article , linked
Russia’s actions in Ukraine with the troop withdrawal
from Afghanistan. According to her, anything less than
the American military’s requirement for 10,000 troops
will suggest that the US is not serious about helping to
stabilise that country, which is likely to embolden
countries like Iran, Iraq and Russia.
Aid as Carrot and Stick
The US Congress has been giving out multibillion dollar
annual bills as aid to the Afghan army. However, with
Karzai sticking to his word on not signing the BSA until
after elections, the administration has claimed that the
financial assistance, whether for armed forces or
development programmes, is likely to drop steeply. In
January 2014, Congress slashed the development
budget for Afghanistan by half and even reduced
security aid by 60 per cent.
A recent report by the United States Institute of Peace
(USIP) states that the delay in signing the BSA is
compounding uncertainty and diminishing economic
confidence in Afghanistan. According to the report, the
Afghan economy is witnessing increased capital flight,
delay in investments, incipient job losses, declining
demand for goods and services, and is leading to
farmers planting more poppy. More families are
choosing to arm themselves, leading to a hike in
weapon prices. Stating that it is bound to spread into
the government and security structures, the report puts
the BSA as an anchor in navigating transition
challenges.
Using the Region to Leverage US Interests
It is a given that with or without the BSA, the US is
likely to play a lesser role in Afghanistan in the coming
months. However, the region as a whole has braced
itself for more involvement in Afghanistan, with
America’s blessings. The neighbouring countries realise
that an unstable Afghanistan is likely to become an
incubator of terrorism, poppy production and other illicit
activities. Pakistan and Iran understand the
repercussions of a failed state in their backyard that has
the potential to create unrest and instability within their
own territories. Russia and China are already worried
about the spread of insurgency in the troubled
Chechenya and Xinjiang provinces respectively.
India for its part is uniquely positioned - as a friend to
both Washington and Kabul. India remains in a position
to use its good offices to ensure that a version of the
BSA agreeable to both the countries is signed. Building
on the 'narrative of opportunity' to counter the anxiety
of withdrawal, New Delhi is attempting to shift focus to
regional confidence-building, development, governance,
trade and investment. India until now has transferred
‘no strings attached’ aid directly to Kabul despite
knowing that the Afghan government is considered
corrupt. India has also tried to deal with Pakistan’s
fears over military involvement in Afghanistan. Thus, it
has been evasive towards Afghan requests for tanks,
field guns and aircraft. As it turns out, Washington,
which was more than ambivalent regarding India’s
participation in the region, wants more from New Delhi
today.
The ‘new silk road’ initiative to link Afghanistan’s
energy, mineral and trade resources with the rest of the
world ideated by the Obama administration is also being
taken up by the region collectively to exploit the transit
potential that can accrue much needed economic growth
for the country. If successful, the project can serve as a
conduit for mutually beneficial cooperation between the
US, Central Asia and Russia, helping the US to continue
playing a consequential role in the region.
No comments:
Post a Comment