Bibhu Prasad Routray
At the onset of 2015, left-wing extremism (LWE) in India under the aegis
of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) is confronted with a
choice of either coming to terms with the realities of its weakness and
revisit the strategy of sustaining a protracted war with the state; or
continuing with carrying out periodic attacks on the security forces and
other state protagonists with the long-term aim of resurrecting itself
yet again in the coming years.
Although the past few years have reinforced the notion that CPI-Maoist
has ceased to be the force it used to be, there is little hope that in
2015, the outfit would halt pursuing its strategy of carrying out
intermittent raids as well as expanding into newer areas. How the state
responds to this challenge via its reformulated strategy would be
something to watch out for.
Shrinking Extremist Domination
In 2014, the trend of declining fatalities in LWE-related violence
continued. According to provisional data, only 314 fatalities were
registered, which is the lowest since the formation of the CPI-Maoist in
2004. While Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand account 67 per cent of these
fatalities, Odisha, Maharashtra and Bihar are the other states that
reported the remaining fatalities. The CPI-Maoist, which once wielded
influence over almost one-third of the country's geographical expanse,
now operates with a constrained presence in these five states. A sudden
expansion in the CPI-Maoist's area of operation is unlikely in 2015. The
outfit would mostly be involved in guarding its remaining influence in
these states.
Persisting Weakness
Affected by surrenders, killings and arrests of a large numbers of
its cadres, the CPI-Maoist is clearly on a back foot, necessitating a
phase of tactical retreat when the outfit rebuilds its strength. Among
the many denominators that point at the state's tightening grip over LWE
is the former's ability to carry out largely peaceful elections in
various states. Jharkhand went for an assembly elections in November and
December 2014. Additionally, the CPI-Maoist largely failed to carry out
its threats of disrupting the poll; the over 66 per cent voter turnout –
a record percentage in the state – demonstrated a growing popular
confidence in the State's ability to provide security. A stable
government, now a reality in state, has an opportunity of heralding an
era of decisive action against the extremists.
Morale-boosting Assaults
The operational weakness of the CPI-Maoist, however, has not
curtailed its ability to carry out periodic attacks resulting in high
casualty among the security forces. In fact, such attacks would remain
part of the CPI-Maoist's continuing attempt of seeking relevance,
rebuilding its organisational strength, and inflicting setbacks on the
security forces. The fact that the security forces in each of the
LWE-affected theatres continue to face issues of coordination,
leadership and direction, would aid the extremist efforts. Successful
attacks such as the one that resulted in the killing of 14 Central
Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district
on 1 December 2014, has already led to a defensive mindset among the
forces, with the CRPF headquarters insisting that all major operations
against the extremists must be cleared by the top brass of the
organisation.
Enclaves of Strength
New Delhi has assured the affected states of support in dealing with
LWE. However, for the states, emerging from an era of overwhelming
dependence on the central forces has proved to be difficult. Progress in
enabling its own police forces to take a lead role in countering
extremism has remained a non-starter. This is apparent in the
significant level of popular compliance to the CPI-Maoist's periodic
calls for shutdown in various states. Even as the state makes advance
establishing its writ over hitherto extremism-affected areas, several
enclaves of extremist domination, especially in states like Jharkhand,
Chhattisgarh and Odisha would continue to mock the official claims of
success.
Missing Bureaucracy
Resurrecting governance over the erstwhile Maoist-dominated areas
has proved to be New Delhi's Achilles Heel. As of the beginning of 2015,
the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs is pushing the state governments to
appoint "officers with zeal" as district magistrates and
superintendents of police in the extremism-affected districts. Even as
the security forces register some successes in ending extremist
domination over select areas, bureaucratic inertia in kick-starting
governance has remained one of the primary hindrances in cementing
success. Government functionaries are either reluctant to function in
such hazardous zones or are indulging in rampant corruption exploiting
the lack of accountability a conflict situation provides. The attempt to
inculcate "zeal" among functionaries, both in the higher and lower
levels of bureaucracy is likely to be a tough one for the state
governments.
Southern Expansion
One of the less highlighted aspects of the CPI-Maoist's activities
in 2014 was its foray into Kerala. With a handful of incidents involving
attacks on a forest department office and an outpost, and KFC and
McDonald’s outlets, the Maoists have announced their presence in the
southern state. While expansion into new areas remains an avowed
objective of the CPI-Maoist exploiting fertile grounds, the divided
official response has helped the outfit gain strength and sympathisers.
Amid the Kerala police's steps to deal with the emerging threat, a
senior government functionary has called for a stop to the hunt and has
praised the Maoists for "energising the government machinery in tribal
areas." The CPI-Maoist would continue its attempts to spread its
activities into new areas in 2015. Sans a national consensus on dealing
with the threat, some of these areas would lapse into new hunting
grounds for the extremists.
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