POST-POLL ADMINISTRATIVE INERTIA

Shujaat Bukhari


“National Conference Government has taken
historic decisions in all fields of governance and
development particularly concerning common
people and youth”— Omar Abdullah at a workers meet in Baramulla on July 12.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has been repeatedly saying that his government has a lot to talk about “good governance” and he would go to people with his “achievements” of past nearly six years. There must have been some positive decisions, which his government has taken and obviously the impact must be on the ground. However, what he did soon after the debacle in the recently held parliamentary
elections contradicts his oft repeated claims.
Reversing the recruitment policy, abrupt decision to increase the retirement age from 58 to 60 (despite beating the employees for full five years) and many more post-poll initiatives stand testimony to the fact that his government had not taken those decisions with a proper thought and planning.
Governance in a state like Jammu and Kashmir is highly politicised with different rather warring
narratives and priorities set for the political actors.
Therefore, it assumes fundamental importance in the life of a common man. Its efficiency or a
positive impact is based on the decisions you take at the higher level. Running the administration smoothly by picking up right people for the right job is the thumb rule for making governance visible and effective. But that unfortunately has not been case with this government.

DEFUNCT SEAT OF POWER:
Look at the situation that has been prevailing in the Civil Secretariat since the election results were out.
It is like as if there is no government. The ministers are continuously missing from their chambers and mostly seen in their constituencies to make the last ditch effort to make their revival possible. The files
are piling up and bureaucracy has no interest in
following up the issues that are of vital interest to the people. A routine visit to the Secretariat gives the real feel of the situation at this highest seat of power. Not only are the ministers running away from offices but the officers have also started looking towards the new possible dispensations.
They are seen making beeline at the houses of
those politicians who they think may come to
power. “Changing the loyalties does not take much
time in this place and you should not be
surprised,” quipped an officer.
Some of the ministers when quizzed say that when
chief minister himself is not in office how can
others be held accountable. Soon after the poll
debacle Omar Abdullah shifted his “Durbar” to
Gupkar throwing the doors of his residence open.
Long queues of people with grievances were seen
outside his residence so people believed that now
this was the place where they could seek redressal.
It virtually turned into a grievance cell though there
is already one rather defunct at his Secretariat
office. Just to cite an example, Director of Rural
Development Kashmir has not even acknowledged
ten reminders from CM’s grievance cell not to talk
of redressal.
FILLING OF VACANCIES:
As I mentioned earlier, good governance needs a
top to bottom approach. It begins with the
mechanism you put in place right from the top.
Two months have passed since the model code of
conduct came to an end and the State Cabinet has
at least met five times. But they failed to arrive at
the consensus to fill some very important positions
in the government. Besides Education, Rural
Development and ARI/Trainings is without a full
time administrative secretary. So is the case with
some other major departments which don’t have
full time Directors.
Imagine a state without a full time Education and
Rural Development Secretaries for many months
now. Education is being looked after by even
otherwise overburdened Home Secretary and the
Rural Development charge is with Higher Education
Secretary. Both Education and Rural Development
are vitally important departments which have a lot
to do with the growth and development in these
two sectors. But the Ministers of National
Conference and Congress coalition have a different
yard stick in picking up the people to fill these
positions.
One grievance the state has always talked about is
that the non-state subject IAS officers are always
looking for a deputation and do not want to serve
the state. But three IAS officers P K Tripathi, Ashok
Parmar and Rohit Kansal have been waiting for
their adjustments for a considerable time, though
Kansal joined back recently. All of them fit in the
positions of Secretaries but the government has no
time to give them the responsibility and utilize their
services.
Likewise the tussle between NC and Congress over
replacement of Deputy Commissioners has put the
whole process of reshuffle to a halt. Obviously the
Ministers, of whom majority have badly performed
in recent Lok Sabha elections, would like to have
DC’s of their “choice” to see some fortune coming
back. But that seems to be a far-fetched dream as
the DC’s no longer can function as “Khaliq made”
with a lot of surveillance around. Recent elections
have shown that administration was under watch
from different quarters and that perhaps made the
process credible. So wasting time on selection of
an officer of choice to get benefitted from elections
does not help anyone. But this has made the
administration defunct with most of officers looking
either towards a fortune or a marching order.
Similarly the government has failed to fill the
vacancies in Public Service Commission, which is
left with only two members out of eight. There is
no full Commission to conduct the interviews for
KAS aspirants. Though Congress is believed to
have finalized its share of names, NC has been
dithering over the issue for long time.

PREMATURE DEPARTURE:
With no zeal to work seen in the Secretariat, it
looks like as if the government has made a
premature departure from this highest seat of
power. In politics you don’t burn your boats but
keep the space open for a comeback. Apparent lack of interest in giving better governance to the people in these few months only shows that both parties do not have a commitment towards the public.
Being at loggerheads in coalition is well understood
but it should not come at the cost of the people
and their interests. If these parties really want a
revival in Assembly elections governance is the
best tool for that. But that cannot be used by
keeping important positions vacant only to reap the benefits through other means.

DON'T STEAL THE ELECTION NOW

D Suba Chandran


Within a span of two months, there has been an
unfortunate turn around to the electoral and thereby the larger democratic process in Afghanistan. After a successful first round of elections in April 2014, the second round took place during the last month to elect either Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani.
What should have been a simple and straight
forward election between two candidates has today become a highly divisive one, threatening the positive achievements in the recent years towards establishing Afghanistan as a democracy.
Trouble started much before the counting process
began. Abdullah Abdullah complained about fraud
in the second round of election, with ballot boxes
being stuffed in more than 2000 polling booths.
What was surprising also was the number of votes
polled in the second round of elections, when
compared with the first round.
While the first round witnessed polling of six
million votes, the initial count after elections
projected seven million, while the final number after
counting rose to eight million. The independent
Election Commission has announced that Ashraf
Ghani scoring more than 54 percent of the votes
polled, while Abdullah Abdullah securing less than
45 percent.
Abdullah group consider this as a huge fraud and
believe that the two million votes should be bogus
and stuffed to ensure Ashraf Ghani wins the
process. His supporters also provide as proof
telephonic conversations of the election
commission officials on the issue of fraud and
attempting to steal the election in favour of Ashraf
Ghani.
With the other two candidates – Zalmai Rassoul
and Abdul Sayyaf who have secured 11 and 7
percent of votes during the previous round,
supporting Abdullah Abdullah, the latter was
expecting his vote share would increase from 45
percent in the previous round to more than 50
percent during the second round. However, Ashraf
Ghani who had scored less that Abdullah in the
first round was declared securing more than 50
percent, which the Abdullah group has refused to
accept.
Having gone through the same process earlier
while fighting Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah do
not want to lose one more time due to fraud and is
unlikely to wait till the next Presidential elections.
His supporters are vociferous and are pressurizing
Abdullah to form a government immediately on his
own. His group wants to go to the Presidential
palace and occupy it, thereby forming the
government. Abdullah does have support amongst
few Governors in the provinces and also amongst a
section within the Afghan security forces. His
threat is doable from his side.
It would have been a disaster had he carried out
the threat. Thankfully, he allowed Kerry to mediate
in finding a solution. After a marathon of meetings
between Abdullah and Ghani, Kerry did succeed in
establishing a deal; both had agreed to an audit
again, thereby counting the votes.
How did the electoral process, after the initial
success come to this stage? Was there really turn
around between the two rounds, which made Ashraf
Ghani take a decisive lead in a period of two
months? Or, was there something sinister behind
the entire disaster.
A section does accuse Hamid Karzai, the President
now for playing a dirty role in favouring Ashraf
Ghani. The latter being a pashtun is a factor cited
as Karzai’s decision to steal the election against
Abdullah Abdullah. When compared to Ashraf
Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah is not seen as an outside;
he has remained within Afghanistan, fought the
Soviet troops earlier as a part of the Mujahideen
resistance, and latter the Taliban. He continued to
support the political process after Karzai was made
the President during the last decade. Ashraf Ghani
is seen as an outside and technocrat, who was
imported from the West. So Abdullah group does
have a point.
Second, there is also a conspiracy theory accusing
Karzai as the primary villain trying deliberately to
create political instability. If there is a political
standoff between the two candidates, he is likely to
remain the President for a longer term; or, given
his support to Ashraf Ghani, the later would return
the favour and accommodate Karzai in one way or
another. This section also claims, without such a
long term plan for himself, he would not have
attempted to build such a huge palace in Kabul
after passing over the baton to the next President.
The US was alarmed with such a situation for three
reasons. First, Karzai continuing as the President
in the event of political instability mean that the
Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) would not be
signed between Afghanistan and the US. The other
two candidates have agreed to sign, if they get
elected. Second, the US is also equally worried
about any political instability at this juncture, with
the American forces preparing their exit plan.
The most important worry for the US is any repeat
of Iraq situation. A section within the US has
already started writing that today’s Iraq is
tomorrow’s Afghanistan, hinting that what is
happening within Iraq would happen to
Afghanistan. An unstable government, non-
inclusive politics, pull-out of foreign troops and
radical onslaught – the recipe for disaster today in
Iraq would very well become the ingredients of
failure in Afghanistan tomorrow.
The US at this juncture does not want one more
unstable country in this region. If there is instability
in Kabul, the political process would remain
paralysed. Attracting foreign investment, which is
crucial to the stability and the very survival of
Afghanistan, would then become a tougher issue.
More than the political paralysis and economic
failure, Afghanistan is likely to become politically
polarised along pashtun and non-pashtun lines, if
the above happens. This will also puncture the
Afghan dream that the youth in particular believes
in terms of establishing an Afghan nation based on
a larger identity cutting across narrow ethnic and
tribal identities. The political instability would let
the Afghan youth down and hit them hard, than any
other sections of the society.
So, who will benefit out of the above
developments? Obviously, without firing a single
bullet and planning an ambush, Taliban would gain
considerably and in fact would cover the lost
ground in no time. Taliban, though weakened when
compared to the last decade, still have enough fire
power to wreck the process, especially in a
politically unstable situation. Taliban would bounce
back, not because of inherent strength, but
because of the failure of mainstream political
process and political consensus.
For the rest of the region, any Taliban ingress in
Afghanistan now leading towards an establishment of any form of government, even over a limited territory would imply two fanatic regimes in Iraq in the west and in Afghanistan in the east, forming a radical corridor. Such a development would neither be in the interest of Afghanistan, or in the rest of Asia. West Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and even parts of Western China (especially Xinjiang) would
face the reverberations of such a development.
It is imperative that the two Presidential candidates in Afghanistan get back to the political process and ensure that the audit takes place, thus increasing the credibility of the electoral process and infusing faith in the political path.

THE PLAYBOY PRESIDENTS

Emmett Tyrrell


I have been vindicated! For years I have been
comparing the Clinton family to the family of
Warren Gamaliel Harding, our 29th president
and a president of dark memory at least to
most liberal historians. For me, Warren was
sheer slapstick, as to some degree his modern-
day equivalent was, Bill Clinton. And forget
not their gruesome wives.
I began my historical comparisons in the 1996
bestselling book, "Boy Clinton: The Political
Biography." For years, I punctuated my
syndicated column with references to the two
families. Then in my 2007 book, "The Clinton
Crack-Up," I clinched the comparison in a
reminder of how that Little Rock monstrosity,
the Clinton Library, compared so favorably
with the Harding Memorial in Warren's
hometown, Marion, Ohio. But now, you ask,
how am I vindicated? Well, America's
historical memory is not very strong.
Comparing Bill with a 1920s president to a
modern American audience was not easy. Yet,
by month's end it will be much easier. In fact,
the comparison will be inescapable.
On July 29, the Library of Congress is putting
on display a goldmine of romantic letters
Warren wrote his mistress from 1910 to 1920,
Carrie Fulton Phillips. He later had other gals,
most notably Nan Britton, while he was
president. Yet no letters from these affairs are
extant. The Phillips letters are voluminous and
very steamy. In fact, one cannot read them
without being reminded of Monica Lewinsky's
testimony in the Starr Report. They are that
salacious. Boy would Warren have had a good
time with Monica.
Of course, we only have Warren's
reminiscences of his recent assignations with
Mrs. Phillips, but that is enough to convey
what took place in a dark hotel room or under
an elm. He names his private part. I will
encourage my readers to attend the Library of
Congress exhibit by not betraying my
knowledge of it. He names Mrs. Phillips'
private parts while describing her other
physical attributes. It is my judgment as a
presidential historian that nothing quite like
the Harding letters have ever escaped from a
president's confidence, save the Lewinsky
testimony.
I am vindicated!
As I have written, the comparisons between
the Hardings and the Clintons are inescapable.
Both the Clintons and the Hardings came from
rural parts, albeit Harding had a more exalted
pedigree. Both couples included a clever,
assertive and forbidding wife who had
displayed above-average competence in
business and in politics. Both families were
compact; the Clintons had one daughter, the
Hardings had no children.
Both presidents were personable and charming
to the fair sex, whose nicely turned ankles
fetched their wandering eyes. When not boldly
at the helm of the ship of state, both
presidents vigorously pursued the masculine
pastimes of their day, golf and poker for
Harding, golf and jogging for Clinton.
Harding, of course, was less driven than the
Boy Governor of Arkansas and obviously more
dignified. He had a better tailor. He seemed to
age more gracefully and less abruptly in office
until he suffered a heart attack while in San
Francisco where he died. Then, too, while
alive Harding was freer of scandal. History
remembers Harding as an amiable bungler
whose scandals were revealed only upon his
death. Clinton's blunders began early and the
shadows of scandal crossed him earlier still.
Moreover there were witnesses to his
scandals, a lot of them.
Bill, aside from his scandals and pratfalls,
presided over a relatively prosperous and
peaceful presidency, owing in part to his
cooperation with Republicans, particularly
Newt Gingrich's House of Representatives.
Remember his boast that "the era of Big
Government is over"? Surprisingly, today we
recall Warren's presidency as prosperous and
peaceful, too. Amity Shlaes, in her book,
"Coolidge," recalls that he cut taxes, cut
federal spending, got the economy going again
and ended his predecessor Woodrow Wilson's
excessive regulation of the economy. Also he
endorsed African-Americans' rights.
So I am vindicated in my comparison of
Clinton and Harding, and one other thing. I
would welcome either of them back in the
White House today to replace Barack Obama,
who is not very funny.

THE TURBULENT SUMMER OF 2014

Victor Hanson


The summer of 2014 will go down in history as
the season when America fell apart. Let's take
a tour of the disasters.
Germany in 2008 enthusiastically hosted
candidate Barack Obama for his so-called
"Victory Column" speech. Now, Germans
suddenly sound as if they are near-enemies of
the U.S. Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly
was furious that her cell phone was tapped by
American intelligence agents. She just kicked
the top CIA official out of Germany, further
enraged that the U.S. had recruited at least one
German official to provide intelligence on the
German government. Polls show that Germans
find Vladimir Putin's Russian tyranny almost as
popular as Barack Obama's America.
Japan is becoming similarly frustrated with the
U.S. It is rearming like crazy to confront an
aggressive China. Both Asian powers
apparently assume that Obama won't
guarantee the security of the Japanese as
America had in the past.
The Middle East is dissolving. Taking U.S.
peacekeepers out of Iraq proved a disaster.
The radical jihadists of ISIS are overrunning
Syria and Iraq, as they extend their destruction
even to the mute stones of religious
sanctuaries.
War looms between Israel and the Palestinians
as they exchange rockets and bombs. Older
Americans had an idea of what Afghanistan
will look like by 2016 after Obama announced
a pullout of all U.S. troops. They remember
Saigon of 1975 all too well.
Crimea has become a Russian satellite. The fate
of the Ukraine hangs in the balance. In
between his conquests, Russia's Putin openly
ridicules the impotence of the U.S. He is often
called to the Middle East on the perception
that he can address problems that America
runs away from.
From his sanctuary perch in Russia, National
Security Agency turncoat Edward Snowden is
once again releasing top-secret data that
shreds the credibility of the Obama
administration.
Foreign leaders don't trust the U.S. They are
baffled as to whether America is guilty of
incompetence in hiring such a roguish dropout
snoop in the first place, or guilty of cynically
spying on America's best friends -- or both.
The economy shrank last quarter. Record
numbers of adult Americans are still not
working. Zero interest rates have destroyed
the tradition of passbook savings and the very
idea of thrift.
No-interest financial policies ignited a
stampede to the stock market that has further
enriched the one-percenters -- an artificial
boom that everyone believes will soon bust.
The borrowing of $7 trillion has proved no
stimulus. A natural American recovery was
stymied by vast federal borrowing, by the
addition of more incomprehensible
regulations, and by an Obamacare package that
proved to be the opposite of almost everything
that was promised. Inflation is said to be
manageable, but only by not counting soaring
food, gas and electricity costs that do the most
to erode family budgets.
U.S. immigration law simply no longer exists.
Incoming foreign nationals more likely
welcome arrest than fear it. Tens of thousands
of newly arrived immigrants expect that the
cynical coalition of commercial interests,
ethnic activists and political operatives have
subverted existing federal law. America is now
wide open. Almost anyone can cross the border
and receive subsidized sanctuary. If you object,
you are a nativist, racist or xenophobe -- take
your pick.
No one denies that top IRS officials lost or
destroyed key documents concerning the
agency's election-time efforts to subvert
conservative organizations. The unbiased IRS
that we once knew has vanished. It has
become an appendage of the ruling
government that punishes enemies and
rewards friends -- and dodges a high-level
audit by lying in the same fashion as the tax
cheats it goes after.
Americans accept the fact that a video never
had anything to do with the killing of four
American officials in Benghazi and know that
the Obama administration knew precisely that
when it assured them otherwise.
No one has heard anything lately from Private
Bowe Bergdahl, who was traded for five of the
most dangerous jihadists the U.S. had in its
custody. The less we know about why
Bergdahl went AWOL, the administration
thinks, the better.
The scandals now come so fast and furiously
that we no sooner hear of one than yet
another new mess makes us forget it.
What keeps the country afloat this terrible
summer?
Some American companies produce more gas
and oil than ever despite, not because of, the
Obama administration. Most Americans still get
up every day, work hard and pay more taxes
than they receive in subsidies. American
soldiers remain the most formidable in the
world despite the confusion of their superiors.
The law, regardless of the administration, is
still followed by most. And most do not duck
out on their daily responsibilities to golf, play
pool or go on junkets.
It is still a hard thing to derail America in a
summer -- but then again, we have a long way
to go until fall.

INDIA - US: NUCLEAR AYATOLLAHS AND THE POLITICS OF NON-PROLIFERATION

Gurmeel Kanwal


In a completely partisan and somewhat
condescending editorial in early-July 2014, The
New York Times wrote: “If India wants to be part of the nuclear suppliers group, it needs to sign the treaty that prohibits nuclear testing, stop producing fissile material, and begin talks with its rivals on nuclear weapons containment.” The editorial is sharply critical of and vehemently opposes India’s efforts to acquire membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It bases its criticism on a report by IHS Jane’s that India is in the process of enhancing its capacity to enrich uranium – ostensibly to power the nuclear reactors
on the INS Arihant and future SSBNs, but much in excess of the requirement. This, the editorial says, is causing anxiety to the Pakistanis and has raised the spectre of an arms race in Southern Asia.
It is obvious that the editorial writer understands
neither the background to nor the present context
of India’s nuclear deterrence. As stated in a letter
written by then Prime Minister AB Vajpayee to US
President Bill Clinton after India’s nuclear tests at
Pokhran in May 1998 (in an unfriendly act, the
letter was leaked to the media by the White House),
the primary reason for India’s acquisition of
nuclear weapons was the existential threat posed
by two nuclear-armed states on India’s borders
with both of which India had fought wars over
territorial disputes. The China-Pakistan nuclear
and missile nexus, including the clandestine
transfer of technology from China to Pakistan, has
irrevocably changed the strategic balance in
Southern Asia by helping Pakistan to neutralise
India’s superiority in conventional forces and has
helped Pakistan to wage a proxy war under its
nuclear umbrella.
Since then, the nuclear environment in Southern
Asia has been further destabilised. China’s ASAT
(anti-satellite weapons) test, BMD (ballistic missile
defence) programme, efforts aimed at acquiring
MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry
vehicle) capability and ambiguity in its no first use
(NFU) commitment, while simultaneously rapidly
modernising the PLA (People’s Liberation Army)
and its efforts to establish a ‘string of pearls’ by
way of ports in the Indian Ocean, are a cause for
concern for India. Similarly, Pakistan is engaged in
the acquisition of ‘full spectrum’ nuclear capability,
including a triad and tactical nuclear weapons
(TNWs), which invariably lower the threshold of
use. Pakistan has stockpiled a larger number of
nuclear warheads (100 to 110) than India (80 to
90) and is continuing to add to its numbers as it
has been given unsafeguarded nuclear reactors by
China. In view of several mujahideen attacks on
Pakistan’s armed forces’ establishments during the
last few years, there is apprehension in the
international community, entirely justified, that
some of Pakistan’s nuclear warheads could fall
into jihadi hands.
Some statements made by IHS Jane’s in its report
are factually incorrect. The research group has
assessed that the new Indian uranium enrichment
facility at the Indian Rare Metals Plant near Mysore
would enhance India's ability to produce ‘weapons-
grade’ uranium to twice the amount needed for its
planned nuclear-powered SSBN fleet. The report
does not say how the research group arrived at this
deduction. Also, the nuclear power reactors of
SSBNs require uranium to be enriched only up to
30 to 40 per cent. Weapons-grade uranium must
be enriched to levels over 90 per cent.
For the record, the Government of India has denied
reports that it is ‘covertly’ expanding its nuclear
arsenal. An Indian official told The Hindu (Atul
Aneja, “India trashes report on covert nuclear
facility,” 22 June 2014) that the report was
“mischievously timed” as it came just before a
meeting of the NSG. He said, “It is interesting that
such reports questioning India’s nuclear credentials
are planted at regular intervals.”
The US Government also dismissed the report (“US
dismisses report on India covertly increasing
nukes”, The Hindu , 21 June 2014) as “highly
speculative.” The US State Department
Spokesperson said, “We remain fully committed to
the terms of the 123 agreement and to enhancing
our strategic relationship. Nothing we provide to
India under the civ-nuke agreement may be used
to enhance India’s military capability or add to its
military stockpile…”
The Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement of
2005 gives an exemption to India’s nuclear
weapons facilities and stockpiles of nuclear
weapons fuel from inspections by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and India is at liberty
to set up additional military facilities using
unsafeguarded materials if these are considered
necessary. India has agreed to bring 14 nuclear
power reactors under international safeguards.
Eight military facilities, including reactors,
enrichment and reprocessing facilities and three
heavy water reactors will remain out of the purview
of IAEA safeguards.
India has been a responsible nuclear power and
has a positive record on non-proliferation. India
has consistently supported total nuclear
disarmament and is in favour of negotiations for
the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). Non-
proliferation ayatollahs should channelise their
efforts towards identifying and shaming the real
proliferators.

FEDERALISM AND NEPAL: INTERNAL DIFFERENCES

Pramod Jaiswal


The constitutional debate in Nepal has bene caught up in peculiar twists and turns ever since late 1940s. So far, Nepal has had six constitutions, at different points in time, and the debate to get an acceptable constitution for long-term social peace and stability continues.
Why have constitution debates been unable to
bring social peace and political stability in Nepal?
Why have federalism debates in Nepal been so
polarised that Constituent Assembly (CA) I was
dissolved and elections to CA II were held to draft a constitution? There are two simple questions to deconstruct the question of federalism in Nepal.
First, why do historically marginalised communities
(Madhesis, Janjatis, dalits etc) that constitute
almost 70 per cent of the Nepal’s population
strongly sympathise with federalism? Why are the
Caste of High Hill Elites (CHHE) (Brahmins and
Chettri etc) who are dominant in Kathmandu’s
power structure are oppose federalism in its true
spirit and agreed on a federal model of governance
only after the large-scale Madhesi movement in
2007?
Why is the Federalism Narrative So Dominant In
Nepal?
Nepal has been monolithic, upper caste hill-centric
dominance of one language, culture, and an
extremely centralised power structure of
governance throughout history. However, the
diversity in languages, cultures and a sense of
belongingness that exists in Nepal has not been
given due recognition; and the State’s
discrimination and exclusionary policies triggered
a sense of deep dissatisfaction among the
historically marginalised community.
In this context, on the basis of ‘unity in diversity’,
federalism narratives gained prominence to
institutionalise self-rule, autonomy, and dignity in
the country. This brings us to the debate of
‘identity–based’ federalism that is largely the
politics for recognition of diversity in Nepal for
these communities.
What are the Technicalities of the Federalism
Debate?
The debate on federalism has become one of the
most contentious issues in Nepal. This polarised
debate is approached via various perspectives,
such as: change (pro-identity based federalism)
Vs. status quo forces (federalism on the basis of
viability); pluralist Vs. Mono-culturalist;
historically marginalised communities Vs. upper
caste hill dominance; and political de-
centralisation Vs. administrative de-centralisation.
By and large, the new political forces that emerged
in Nepal after the promulgation of the 1990
constitution – like Maoists and various political
parties that arose from social movements of
Madhesis, Janjatis etc. – associate themselves
with the former while traditional parties like Nepali
Congress and CPN-UML associate themselves with
latter categories.
This brings us to the technical debate on
federalism, that, on the basis of the ‘Committee on
State Restructuring and Allocation of State Powers’
during CA I agreed upon – “Identity based
Federalism” and “viability,” i.e., on the basis of
economic capability. There are five indicators for
“Identity” – ethnicity, language, culture, geography
and regional continuity, and historical identities
( historically subjected to discrimination in various
forms in their homeland). The “viability” has four
indicators – economic interrelationships and
capability; status and potential for infrastructural
development; availability of natural resources; and
administrative feasibility.
Complexities of the Federalism Issues in Nepal
The technical details are no less complex, adding
complexities to the issues in the federalism debate.
However, there exist battles of narratives regarding
the debate on federalism. It is alleged that the
status quo forces try to obfuscate the federalism
debate to benefit the CHHE and curve out federal
lines of a new Nepal in ways that give
demographic advantage to ruling elites and
maintain dominance in Kathmandu’s power
structures. Conversely, the status quo forces allege
that the pro-identity-based federal forces support
single identity ethnic based federalism. However,
Nepal is a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual nation and it
is not possible to have a majority of any single
ethic group in any model of federalism. The only
difference that adds complexities is the devolution
of power from dominant elite’s high hill castes to
pave Nepal’s transition towards inclusive
citizenship and recognition of marginalised
communities, identities, culture and self-rule.
Perhaps, the buck stops at the top leaders of the
political parties in Nepal who are all traditionally
ruling high-caste Brahmins to strike constitutional
agreement. And, the rationale choice has to be
made on ways to delegate power from the hill
upper caste elites to the people who have been
historically marginalised and such choices are
more difficult given how CA I winners are losers in
CA II elections.
Is Nepal Postponing the Inevitable?
Nepali politics is in transition and fast-changing its
state characteristics from a monarchy to a
republic; a Hindu state to a secular one; and a
unitary structure towards an inclusive federal
model of governance. The CA I postponed
federalism issues for the CA II despite marginalised
communities united and had adequate support
base of 2/3rd majority – that includes the
aspiration of identity and viability model of
federalism denouncing 14 state models of federal governance.
If Nepal postpones the identity criterion of
federalism, the constitutional debate will be likely to be endless – merely postponing the social peace and stability. The constitution is the document of
compromise and the debate to make the new Nepal inclusive must ensure the aspiration of historically marginalised people towards making the people equal, and simultaneously not making them unequal via federalism.

REAL AND MISGUIDED COMPASSION

Robert Knight


TURNER, MAINE -- They say the South is the
friendliest place in America, and they’re
probably right. The Midwest isn’t far behind,
but the civility line defies latitudes or
longitudes.
It comes down roughly to the difference
between city and country folk – although
exceptions abound. Across the USA and
Canada, I’ve found that people outside core
metropolitan areas are much more likely to
initiate or respond to friendly entreaties.
On my family’s recent trip back to the D.C.
area from Western Maine, we stopped at a
supermarket in Turner (population: 5,700) to
get a case of Moxie, but became stranded with
a dead battery.
Within 45 minutes, with our hood up, we were
approached six times by people who offered to
help, including an angel named Tammy who
operated a café a couple of miles away. She
not only gave us phone numbers for three
mechanics, but offered to come back and
personally bring us and two dogs to her café
to spend the day if the car problem was a
lengthy event.
A woman who worked at the supermarket
tried unsuccessfully to jump start us. Others
came by after she left and offered the same.
This doesn’t count those who passed by and
gave inquiring looks that said, “we’re here to
help if you need it.” In Maine, there’s an
understanding that it’s best not to talk unless
you can improve on silence. A sound idea, that.
I thought about the overarching concept of
how you treat strangers while we waited for
AAA to get us back on the road. The Bible is
clear about caring for strangers, the poor,
orphans and widows. It is not a mandate for
mass migration over an unsecured border.
Using my smartphone, I read the latest
accounts of the Texas border crisis. Some well-
meaning folks have, I believe, misapplied the
biblical idea of hospitality to justify the lawless
surge of tens of thousands of illegal aliens,
mostly young Central Americans.
It’s creating a massive headache for an
overwhelmed system and is costing lives.
Heart-wrenching tales of rape, crime and
death in the desert are seeping through the
media’s rose-colored lens.
Instead of securing the border and
repatriation, President Obama is asking
Congress for a quick $3.7 billion in taxpayer
money for lawyers and schooling to “ease the
crisis” that he manufactured by suspending
deportation of “dreamers” in 2012. He also
sent a powerful signal by turning loose the
Justice Department on states like Arizona that
are trying to do what the feds won’t – enforce
the law.
Although drug smugglers, criminals and
perhaps terrorists are taking advantage of the
legal anarchy, the vast majority are poor
people seeking a better life. Only a heart of
stone would feel no twinge of compassion.
But, as with legal precedents, hard cases make
bad laws. Without concern for consequences,
seemingly compassionate actions can harm
more than help.
A friend who goes to Africa to assist
missionaries in relieving poverty and sharing
the Gospel told me that some actions by the
U.S. government and even private
philanthropic groups make things worse. A
case in point is dumping food into drought-
stricken areas dotted with hardscrabble
farmers. If it isn’t handled right, the farmers
go out of business, and famine returns with a
vengeance.
It’s not enough to feel good about doing good;
we’re responsible for seeing that we help
more than hurt. The late, great Michael
Schwartz, a conservative, pro-life activist,
gave me a lesson in this one day as we walked
to lunch from the Heritage Foundation, where
I worked at the time.
Although we had a narrow window, Mike
stopped when a homeless man approached us
to panhandle. Instead of rushing by, Mike
patiently talked with him, but turned down
repeated requests for money. It was obvious
the man wanted to buy another bottle. Mike
took him to a nearby café and bought him
some food.
As we walked back from our own lunch, Mike
railed at the inhumanity of the welfare system;
how it robs people of their charitable impulses
and hurts the poor at the same time. Jesus, he
explained, cared enough to set people on the
right path, not lead them astray to make
Himself feel good. Mike had let the homeless
man know that he, the sandwich buyer, was
merely a vehicle for the love of God. Mike
hoped the man would realize his own worth
and perhaps find the strength to take a
different path.
Kindness is catching. The sheer decency of the
people in that Maine parking lot left us feeling
blessed instead of delayed. They wanted to
help us get back on the road, not keep us
dependent on their largesse.
The obvious, though not easy, answer to the
man-made disaster unfolding in Texas is to
secure the border and ship back the illegal
immigrants as humanely as possible. It begins
with re-establishing the rule of law, without
which more misery will flourish.
We can’t solve all the world’s problems, but
we can surely make them worse with
misguided compassion.

B.R.I.C.S BUILDING WITHOUT THE WEST

Charles Payne 


Yesterday, BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India,
China, and South Africa) formally announced
the creation of a special reserve fund that will
rival the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
BRICS Fund in
Billions Country IMF in
Billions
$41 China $9.5
$18 Russia $5.9
$18 Brazil $4.3
$18 India $5.8
$5.5 S. Africa $1.9
In addition, a $50 billion Development Bank
(each nation contributing $10 billion) will be
created to help non-member nations build out
their infrastructure. Who knows, maybe
America could dip into the fund to help bridge
the gap in the financing needed to improve
highways and bridges by 2020. According to
the America Society of Civil Engineers,
governments (state and federal) will fall $1.6
trillion short of the $3.6 trillion needed.
Of course, that is not going to happen. In fact,
BRICS and other nations in developed
countries believe that the IMF, which made
draconian resources involving the decolonized
nations, have been overly generous to
European borrowers.
IMF
The IMF was created in July 1944, at the
Bretton Woods Conference. IMF Special
Drawing Rights (SDRs) are issued through the
General Resource Account (GRA) to borrowers:
117 Members
$302 Billion Total Assets
$3.2 Billion Gold
$142.7 Billion Currencies r Genl Resource
Account
General Resource
Account SDR % Outstanding
GRA
Africa 856 0.9
Asia/Pacific 1,640 1.8
Europe 80,373 89.2
ME/CA 5,931 6.6
Western Hemisphere 1,382 1.5
The move by BRICS is an extension of the
financial deals between them and other non-
western nations. It illustrates a determination
to eventually move away from the US dollar
and further mitigate America's influence. Part
of the issue is President Obama's waning
popularity; according to Pew, only South Korea
has a higher favorable opinion than in 2009.
The other part of the equation is the growing
economic clout of the emerging nations and
sleights felt through the large international
organizations like the World Bank and the
IMF.
Brazil, Russia, India
and China
% World
GDP
% IMF
Voting
24.5 10.3
Germany, France,
UK, Italy
% World
GDP
% IMF
Voting
13.4 10.6
Brazil, Russia, India and China
It's a good wake-up call for the United States,
which has to decide if it wants to bow out
(somewhat) gracefully or continue to be the
economy that stirs the global economic drink.
Economic Date and Corporate Earnings
Earnings beats from huge names turned equity
futures around, although there is a cautious
aura about them.
> Goldman Sachs $4.10, Street was looking
$3.05
> JP Morgan $1.46, Street was looking for
$1.30
> Johnson & Johnson $1.66, Street was looking
for $1.55
Retail Sales came in +0.2 against consensus of
+0.6, but April and May were both revised
higher. Out of the 13 total categories, 9
categories came in higher and the ex-auto was
+0.4, in-line with the Street consensus.
Retail sales might be stronger than
government data, in terms of moving the
market, as chain store sales are climbing
higher each week with strong year over year
changes.

CULTIVATING A CURIOUS MIND

DR. Ben Carson 


I recently returned home after two weeks of
engagements in New Zealand and Australia
focusing on empowerment through reading.
The Kiwis and Aussies are not very different
from Americans, even though they inhabit the
opposite side of the globe.
I was struck by the way many people
perceived the political atmosphere in the
United States. Although the well-educated
individuals who have access to all of the
American cable channels tend to be well
informed on the issues, most people had only
heard that America has finally repaired its
broken medical system with the advent of
Obamacare and now everyone, including the
indigent, has excellent health care. They were
under the impression that most Americans are
very happy with Obamacare and with their
wonderful president, who had ushered in a
great new day in America with his brilliance in
many areas.
Many people were shocked when I relayed the
facts about the deleterious effects of
Obamacare on employment, skyrocketing
insurance premiums and the displacement of
health care providers. Furthermore, they had
little knowledge about Benghazi, the Internal
Revenue Service scandal, the Veterans Affairs
debacle or the depth of our financial woes. In
other words, they were just like a multitude of
Americans who pay little attention to their
news sources and are not curious enough to
seek multiple sources and arm themselves
with enough historical knowledge to be able to
decipher truth from fiction.
Fortunately, I found that most of the people
Down Under are not nearly as dogmatic in
their beliefs as Americans have become. Our
people on either side of the political spectrum
tend to be more close-minded, partaking only
of news sources that align with their
ideological beliefs and in many cases engaging
in the demonization of other information
sources. This, of course, leads to intolerance
and ignorance, which are associated with a
whole cadre of societal problems. Frequently,
that narrow-mindedness is encouraged by
hyper-partisan individuals who actually call
out news outlets such as the Fox News
Channel for ridicule.
Such people might do well to ask themselves
what would become of our country if people
only heard what the government wanted them
to hear. If they could be honest with
themselves, I think they would have to admit
that they would be uncomfortable in that
setting. The mainstream media could provide a
great service to the American people, as well
as people around the world, by embracing
their duty to be objective investigators and
reporters of the news. I realize the likelihood
of that occurring is small, but hope springs
eternal.
I was delighted with the enthusiasm for
reading Down Under, and with the
understanding that virtually any young person,
regardless of their economic background, can
empower himself with the knowledge that
comes from reading. This acquisition of
knowledge is the antidote to the herd
mentality induced by an agenda-driven media.
Reading was emphasized so strongly among
the early settlers of America that anyone who
finished the second or third grade was
completely literate, as is borne out in the
beautiful prose that characterized the writing
style and letters of the Western frontiers of
America in the early 19th century. Many
Southern aristocrats also exhibited impressive
writing skills and understanding of the English
language.
Interestingly, the same highly educated rulers
forbade under enormous penalty the teaching
of slaves to read. They fully understood how
empowering education and knowledge are. It
is likely that Frederick Douglass fled the
plantation to escape the wrath of his master,
who was displeased that his slave was
learning to read. Slaves were supposed to be
obedient and grateful for the magnanimous
protection and provisions afforded them by
their "wonderful" masters.
Today many people in America slavishly
devote themselves to a political party without
engaging in critical analysis of whether the
philosophies of that party are really in sync
with their true values and with the betterment
of their position in society. If decades of such
devotion leads to more broken families, more
out-of-wedlock births, more involvement with
the criminal justice system, more poverty and
more dependency on government, maybe it is
time to ask whether such devotion is
warranted.
I was honored to be able to encourage many
of the disadvantaged young people of Australia
and New Zealand to take control of their own
destinies through education and reading. I was
thrilled by the trip sponsors' generous
financial contributions to the Carson Scholars
Fund, enabling us to reach more American
students and emphasize the acquisition of
knowledge and the development of
humanitarian qualities.
I am convinced that the dream of our
Founding Fathers of a free nation filled with
knowledgeable and caring people who trust in
God and accept personal responsibility is still
possible. Each of us has a role to play in the
realization of that dream. A big part of that
role is self-education. We need to read all
kinds of books and articles and experience a
variety of electronic media. We should not
engage in self-censorship, which creates a
proclivity for indoctrination. I am convinced
that a well-informed American populace will
not be manipulated into relinquishing a
beautiful American dream for all.

AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY: AFTER ELECTIONS

The outcomes discussed are based on the paper,
‘Afghanistan’s Region: 2014 and Beyond’,
published by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES). The
results of the preliminary elections have just been declared and the Afghan Security Forces ensured that they were relatively peaceful. They were able to do so because they have an upper hand with the Taliban. However, upon the imminent departure of the International Security Forces, there is bound to be a dip. Following this dip, there are two likely
scenarios. In the first scenario, the Taliban suffers a gradual decline, and the absence of foreign troops eliminates incentives for fighters to join their ranks, thus hindering recruitment. In the second scenario, security rapidly deteriorates with the Taliban establishing a de-facto state, but even this outcome does not anticipate the fall of Kabul.
There have been reports of rigging in the elections with prime candidate Abdullah Abdullah slipping in the race and this is problematic because the elections need to have legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan public. It is also important that the Afghan Security Forces have access to economic resources
because they are a key factor in the determination of an outcome.
India’s primary interest in Afghanistan is to ensure
that it does not become a sanctuary for anti-India
militant outfits and that would include preventing a
takeover of the country by extremists. For this to
be possible, Afghanistan needs to become a viable
economic entity, and for this, India must establish
a corridor of trade through Central Asia since it is
not viable through Pakistan alone. India has been
providing aid but is not prepared to put boots on
the ground because of the inherent risk of NATO
troops pulling out early if it does so. India has not
been very successful in converting goodwill into
influence; there also needs to be greater focus on
the development of infrastructure in Afghanistan.
India should also be a little more discerning about
projects taken up in Afghanistan. There has been
slight favouritism when it comes to provinces
dominated by Pashtuns, and little work has been
done in former Northern Alliance states; this could
be remedied by partnering with NATO on some of
the projects. Afghanistan’s stability is in India’s
interest and India must do whatever is feasible in
order to achieve the desired outcome and when
NATO forces do pull out, India will have to
shoulder greater responsibility in Afghanistan.
There are three major issues in the current
relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan:
• Border Issues : The ghosts of the Salala incident
(November 2011) still haunt the relationship, and
despite mutual suspicion, superficial attempts at
cooperation have been loosely supervised by the
US Afghan Military delegations have been visiting
Pakistan in order to have discussions on border
machinations. Pakistan has requested the Afghans
to ensure that the provinces of Kunar and Nuristan
do not harbour any anti-Pakistan elements and
that there are no support attacks on any Pakistani
installations. In return for this, Pakistan will
restrain its support to the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan
will also expect assistance in the hunt for Maulana
Fazlullah. Expectations for improved relations are
low because of the lack of sincerity on both sides
and the lack of genuine intelligence sharing.
• Reconciliation with the Taliban: The Afghans want
to lead and be in control of the process while
Pakistan wants the exact opposite. Meanwhile,
there have been developments in the ‘Qatar
Process’ because the US has convinced moderate
elements in the Taliban based in Qatar to distance
themselves from Pakistan’s ISI. The ISI expressed
its disapproval by detaining the twin brothers of
Tayyab Agha for 15 days. The Afghan Taliban has
clearly made its bid for independence but Pakistan
will try to scuttle this effort through its own proxies
and will use limited violence to get what it wants.
• Trade Issues : Trade and transit issues have been
bedevilled right from the time of the first 1950
treaty, which gives Afghanistan access to the port
of Karachi. However, 80 per cent of the imports
come back into Pakistan even though they are
assigned for Afghanistan because they are brought
back in and sold at premium prices. There is an
adverse balance of trade. Afghanistan wants to be
able to send its goods to India via Pakistan and it
is currently impossible for Indian goods to make
their way to Afghanistan through Pakistan despite
the heavy demand for them. Another issue is the
corruption of Pakistani Customs, which has
completely looted the container cargo business and
causes frequent delays of perishable goods in
transit, rendering them useless.
Over 60 experts drafted the report over 2 years.
Iran, Turkey, China and the Central Asian Republics
also provided inputs. These were drafted from a
country point of view and the agreement on what
was required was unanimous. The report has been
launched in Kabul, Islamabad, Istanbul and Tehran.
It will soon be launched in New Delhi as well. There
was a great deal of movement in the selling of
these ideas and that is the essence of the report.
Key features:
•Confidence-building measures: To improve
bilateral relations between Afghanistan and
Pakistan, which have been clouded by mutual
distrust.
•The implementation of a non-interference
agreement: Everybody involved in the drafting of
the report supported this agreement with the
exception of the Pakistani Army and the ISI. The
code of conduct expected and punishments for
non-adherents has been spelt out.
•Policy of neutrality: A clause that was insisted on
by the Afghan Policy Group that drafted the report.
Discussion
•A situation that demands boots on the ground
should never arise.
•The Afghan Taliban wants independence from the
ISI and it is inexorable. Their inevitable
independence must therefore be factored into any
plans for the future.
•The Shia-Sunni dichotomy should also be taken
into account.
•The withdrawal of American troops is a vote-
catcher for President Obama and the Republican
Party cannot use it against him.
•Supporting any candidate in the election might not
have worked out for India and Ashraf Ghani is very
likely to come under US pressure. India would in
fact have been much happier with Zalmai Rasool
but he did not go past the first round.
•An academy to train the Afghan Security Forces
must be set up in Afghanistan itself.
•The worst-case scenario is either trifurcation or
civil war but all of this is based on whether
everyone abandons Afghanistan. Other actors react to the source of the threat and do not wait till it is knocking at the doorstep. It is time to start thinking about the abandonment situation and burden- sharing.

ZARB-E-AZB: THE DECISIVE STRIKE

Salma Malik


Operation Zarb-e-Azb, launched against militants in North Waziristan by the Pakistani military on 15 June is now entering the second phase of clearing and reclaiming lost spaces. A few days ago, Miranshah, an important city, was 80% reclaimed and for the first time since the launch of the operation, the press corps was allowed a guided tour of the place. The Operation was on the cards for a very long time and a recent interview of the previous military spokesperson in which he hinted an intentional delay by the previous military chief, has added to the list of controversies as to why this decision took so long to be set into motion.
The public sentiment was unanimously against the militants and terrorists and heavily in favour of a Sri Lanka type operation that brought down the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam, without realising the pros and cons of the problem.
Simultaneously, a faction comprising the clergy,
their supporters and empathisers as well as
political parties pitched dialogue with the angry
and disgruntled brethren as a means to appease
and bring them back in the mainstream.
Though the collateral part couldn’t more be
accurate, since the 1980s Afghan war, Pakistan has undergone a drastic transformation, which has affected the entire socio-political, economic and cultural fabric of the society. The decision-makers of the Cold War days, judging the geopolitical developments, made critical but misinformed decisions which served well in short term but proved disastrous in the long term. Resultantly, two generations have paid a heavy price for the militancy and terrorism that haunts their daily lives. Therefore, the argument that this is not our war is as far from the truth as the US’ initial claims of innocence over state failure in Afghanistan.
The elected leadership initially favoured and opted
for an almost unconditional dialogue with the
Tehrik–i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating in the
concerned area alone, against stiff public uproar
and opposition from political parties and concerned
quarters. In one sense, the offer and opening a
channel for dialogue was a good tactical measure;
but it had two severe consequences: the military
lost precious time and the militants gained
advantage and crossed over to safer areas across
border or any other place of choice, with their men
and firepower. The militants, as they gained time,
took the inaction and a general lack of consensus
in the political ranks as a sign of weakness and
inflicted heavy damages which included the mass
killing of 26 captured security personnel, and
mounted attacks on Karachi Airport.
Any harboured illusions have since been laid to
rest and since mid-June, the Pakistani armed
forces are engaged in the military operation. With
30,000 troops committed to clear militant
sanctuaries, strongholds and hideouts from the two
main areas of Miranshah and Mirali, the task at
hand has been enormous. The timing was bad,
given that summer could not be more unsuitable
for the troops, compounded by the beginning of the
Islamic month of Ramzan within a fortnight of the
operation.
The herculean task of evacuation and safe passage
to the local population, whose numbers according
to the available data was around 500,000 but by
now the authorities have a registered a figure
around 833, 274 people. Furthermore, Pakistani
authorities, after repeated requests, managed to
secure the Hamid Karzai government in Kabul’s
cooperation in sealing the border – especially in
Nuristan and Kunar provinces, and also disallow
sanctuaries to fleeing militants on Afghan soil; but
this arrangement now appears in jeopardy after a
fatal strike from the Afghan side on a Pakistani
military patrol, claiming several lives.
The resolve with which the military is dealing this
decisive blow is evident to all, but not without
skeptics and criticism. The prime criticism is that
the military strike occurred too late in the day,
allowing an easy and timely escape to the main
culprits. Yet, the zero tolerance policy towards the
TTP and its local or foreign affiliates is what was
long needed. In the absence of an embedded
media, the only narrative available is the military’s.
In response, the military provided a guided tour of
the 80% cleared town of Miranshah to the media.
Will the military operation be sufficient in flushing
out the militants and the larger issue of terrorism?
Definitely not. This is just one aspect of the larger
nationwide effort, which needs to tackle militant
strongholds and nurseries in other parts of the
country; check the inflow of money and support
these actors receive from all quarters; maintain a
zero tolerance approach, and strengthen
governance, law and order as well as judicial
protocols in handling such issues. This won’t be
easy, given how despite a public demand for stiffer
security measures, the Protection of Pakistan
ordinance (POPO) has met with enormous
criticism. To date, the authorities remain indecisive
over the placement of the National Counter-
terrorism Authority.
At the moment, the greater challenge is the
assistance and finally rehabilitation and
resettlement of the Internally Displaced Persons,
supplemented by developing infrastructure and
self-sustaining institutional mechanisms for the
affected population. It is high time the government breaks old great game buffer myths, abolish the British made FCR, and accord full provincial status to the seven agencies. The success of the Operation will carry positive dividends for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is a need to stand united for a sustained, stable and peaceful future that can help assure prosperity and better regional relations.

AND THE WORLD CHANGED

Bill Tatro


One might think that natural disasters, man-
made disasters or man’s inhumanity to man
would have nothing to do with the bull market
started on March 9 , 2009 and still continuing
to today. On the face of it you would be right.
However, when you look below the surface,
there are great similarities and therefore a
great lesson to be learned.
79A.D. was the year when peace had finally
come to the Roman town of Pompeii. After all
of the wars, taxes levied, and overall economic
disruption, I am certain the citizenry were
looking forward to a time that would bring a
degree of normality for all. Unfortunately a
temperamental volcano changed the lives of
20,000 people not only for the year ahead but
for all eternity. They just weren’t expecting it.
At 5:12 am April 18, 1906 certain plates in the
earth’s crust shifted. Four hundred and ten
thousand people who, less than twenty four
hours earlier, were not even aware of what a
seismic reading meant, saw their world change
forever. The San Francisco earthquake
potential had been discussed by many. Most
however believed that possible and probable
were simply words in the Knob Hill lexicon.
They just weren’t expecting it.
December 7 , 1941, “a day that will live in
infamy.” The Empire of Japan attacked the
United States of America and thus thrust us
into the Second World War. On December 6
most Americans were doing their Christmas
shopping, planning parties, or thinking about
who would be taken off the Christmas card list
this year. The sinking of the Arizona and the
deaths of thousands of soldiers and sailors was
the last thing on their mind. They just weren’t
expecting it.
Three hundred thousand people were
evacuated from the area surrounding
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on March 11,
2011. It was perhaps the greatest nuclear
accident since Chernobyl. The finest minds had
concluded that such an event was not only
unthinkable but also almost impossible.
Therefore, the locals simply went about their
business, until they couldn’t. They just weren’t
expecting.
The markets continue to defy logic. Or do
they? As the usual gravitational pull seems to
be missing, there is something that is
happening right on cue. The so called
professionals are exiting in droves only to be
replaced by the man in the street who has
finally come to the conclusion that it is time to
get in. Of course, right on cue, the clueless
citizenry will look up to see lava pouring
down, plates shifting, bombs dropping, and a
core reactor melting down. All of which will
happen simultaneously as the markets finally
give way to one of the greatest man- made
Keynesian disasters of all time.
He of course will once again be decimated and
will respond “I just wasn’t expecting it.”

THE JEWISH STATE IN A MORALLY SICK WORLD

Dennis Prager


Let's drop the names "Hamas" and "Israel" and
make a list of the characteristics of two
imaginary warring entities. We'll call them
Entity A and Entity B.
Entity A:
--Declares that its raison d'etre is to annihilate
Entity B.
--Sends missiles to explode in the most
populated parts of Entity B in order to kill as
many civilians as possible.
--Uses families and individual civilians as
human shields to protect its own leaders from
attack.
--Tortures and kills domestic political
opponents.
--Has no political or religious freedom and has
no freedom of speech, press, or assembly, and
no independent judiciary.
--Is a theocracy.
--Violently oppresses gays.
--Saturates its education and airwaves with a
demonic hatred of Entity B.
--Rated a "6" by Freedom House in its 2013
report on freedom in the world. Seven is the
worst possible rating. Entity A ranks 6 in
freedom, 6 in civil liberties and 6 political
rights.
Entity B:
--Recognizes the right of Entity A to an
independent existence.
--Has never begun a war with Entity A.
--Has never targeted civilians in Entity A. In
fact, it has sacrificed soldiers in order to avoid
killing Entity A civilians.
--Domestic political opponents -- including
even supporters of Entity A -- not only have
freedom of assembly, press and expression;
they have political parties with representatives
in Entity B's parliament.
--Has freedom of the press, assembly, religion,
and a completely independent judiciary.
--Allows gays full civil rights.
--Has innumerable human rights groups
dedicated to the welfare of people belonging
to Entity A.
--Has no education or broadcasts comparable
to the daily hate in Entity A.
--Freedom House rating for 2014 is 1.5 in
freedom ("1" is best possible); 2 in civil
liberties; 1 in political liberties.
So, then, with which entity does nearly every
government in the world side? Entity A.
And what is the primary concern of the United
Nations, nearly all the world's media, and
nearly all the world's intellectuals? That Entity
B, while hundreds of missiles are launched at
its most populated cities, not kill any of the
civilians among whom Entity A's leaders hide.
The moral gulf between Israel, our Entity B,
and Hamas, our Entity A, is as clear and as
great as the one that existed between the Allies
and Nazi Germany. It is one of the few
instances in today's world when the Nazi
analogy is accurate.
It is clear that while free and democratic
countries such as those in Western Europe
value the freedoms of speech, assembly, and
press for themselves, the absence of these
freedoms among Israel's enemies means
nothing to the Europeans in morally assessing
the Middle East conflict.
The news media, too, have no moral focus.
They are preoccupied with Gazans who have
died, and with the disparity between the
number of Gazans killed and the number of
Israelis killed -- as if that is morally dispositive.
Imagine that during World War II, the Western
press had converged on German hospitals and
apartment buildings and repeatedly announced
the huge disparity between German civilian
deaths and British civilian deaths. More than
10 times the number of German civilians were
killed as were British -- but did that have
anything at all to do with the morality of the
British war against Germany?
The big question, then, is why? Why is decent,
free, democratic Israel not fully supported by
decent countries against the genocidal Islamist
regime of Gaza?
Is there any other example in history of a free
state and a police state at war in which the
free state was deemed morally equivalent to
the police state, or, even more implausibly,
deemed the aggressor? Last week, a New York
Times editorial put the equivalence this way:
"an atmosphere in which each side
dehumanizes the other."
Here, then, are some reasons:
1. The West has lost its way. Europe gave up
on its values after World War I. And the
American left, which dominates the media,
gave up on America's distinctive values after
the Vietnam War.
2. Unlike during World War II, there is a
United Nations today, and it is dominated by
over 50 Islamic countries, their dozens of
allies, and a Security Council on which sit
Russia and China as permanent members.
3. The current American president is a product
of the postwar leftist morality. Wherever the
left is in power, Israel is unpopular at best and
loathed at worst. Thus, Israel's best friend
today is the conservative government of
Canada.
4. The world's news media relentlessly show
images of wounded and dead Gazans. Israel, on
the other hand, though the target of mass-
killing missiles, has thus far been able to avoid
such casualties.
5. Israel is Jewish.
If there are more valid reasons for why the
world equates Israel and its morally primitive
enemies -- or actually deems Israel the villain
-- I have yet to hear them.

LAWSUITS AND IMPEACHMENT

Thomas Sowell


Whenever Democrats are in real trouble
politically, the Republicans seem to come up
with something new that distracts the public's
attention from the Democrats' problems. Who
says Republicans are not compassionate?
With public opinion polls showing President
Obama's sinking approval rate, in the wake of
his administration's multiple fiascoes and
scandals -- the disgraceful treatment of
veterans who need medical care, the Internal
Revenue Service coverups, the tens of
thousands of children flooding across our open
border -- Republicans have created two new
distractions that may yet draw attention away
from the Democrats' troubles.
From the Republican establishment, Speaker of
the House John Boehner has announced plans
to sue Barack Obama for exceeding his
authority. And from the Tea Party wing of the
Republicans, former Governor Sarah Palin has
called for impeachment of the president.
Does President Obama deserve to be sued or
impeached? Yes! Is there a snowball's chance
in hell that either the lawsuit or an
impeachment will succeed? No!
Barack Obama's repeated disregard of the laws
that he is supposed to follow, and his blatantly
changing these laws passed by Congress, are a
threat to the whole Constitutional form of
government, on which all our freedoms
depend.
Once a president -- any president -- can create
his own laws unilaterally, we are on our way
to becoming a banana republic, where
arbitrary rule from the top replaces
representative government by "we the people."
Why not sue Barack Obama then, or impeach
him?
For the simplest of all reasons: Neither of
these actions is going to do anything to stop
Obama, or even discredit him -- and both can
create a distraction that draws attention away
from the Democrats' disasters during an
election year.
Either the lawsuit or an impeachment -- or
both -- can hurt the Republicans, by making it
look like they are playing Mickey Mouse
politics during an election year. President
Obama is already making a joke out of Speaker
Boehner's threatened lawsuit by saying, "So
sue me!"
Courts don't like to get involved in cases
where one branch of government is suing
another -- and the Supreme Court does not
have to take any case that it does not want to
take. Even a lower court can throw out
Boehner's lawsuit as a political issue that does
not belong in court. Then it will be the
Republicans who will have egg on their faces.
As for impeachment, the House of
Representatives can impeach any president
they want to. But an impeachment is
essentially just an indictment that leaves it up
to the Senate to decide whether to vote to
remove the president from office.
So long as the Democrats control the Senate,
impeachment of Barack Obama is guaranteed
to lose. And this too would leave the
Republicans with egg on their faces during an
election year.
The political fate of the Republican Party is not
something that those of us who are not
Republicans need to worry about. If they want
to shoot themselves in the foot again, so be it.
But all Americans have to worry -- and worry
big time -- about the fate of this country if
Republicans blow their chances of taking
control of the Senate.
If Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid continues his iron control, President
Obama can nominate whatever kinds of federal
judges he wants to, knowing that they will be
confirmed by the Senate.
Since federal judges have lifetime tenure, this
would in effect extend the Obama
administration long past the point when
Barack Obama leaves the White House. All he
needs to do is pack the federal courts with
judges who share his contempt for the
Constitution and his zeal to impose a far-left
agenda at all costs.
This year's elections -- especially the Senate
elections -- can decide the fate of this country
for a long time to come. That is why
Republicans' launching of foredoomed
symbolic actions like lawsuits and
impeachment is such an irresponsible self-
indulgence.
When the country is at a historic crossroads is
not the time for futile gestures like this, which
can create bigger disasters than we already
have.

FDI IN INDIAN DEFENCE : IMPLICATIONS OF RAISE IN THE CAP

Radhakrishna Rao


There is a need for in depth evaluation of the
possible long term political, geostrategic and
security fallouts of an increased FDI cap in the
defence production sector.
Specifically, the trade sanction and technological
embargo emanating from the US and its western
allies could deal a paralysing blow to a joint
venture involving a partnership of a US-based
defence company. Sufficient strategic safeguards
should need to be built into joint ventures involving
foreign participation. Otherwise the entire exercise
of enhancing FDI cap in India’s defence production
sector could prove counterproductive, with serious
consequences for the combat-readiness of the
Indian defence forces. Self reliance in defence
production should revolve round a long-term vision
of the security threat perception faced by the
country.he May 2014 change in the Indian leadership
where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge signalled a vastly stepped-up
commitment to India’s crisis prone defence sector with particular reference to attaining self reliance in the defence manufacturing. In fact, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election manifesto had made a strong and specific commitment to end India’s dependence imported arms and ammunition
by boosting domestic production of high
performance fighting equipment. Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) is already considered one of the ‘game changers’ for boosting India’s home-grown capability in the production of state-of-the art combat systems. In fact, the 26% FDI cap on defence sector that former Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had failed to upwardly revise was considered far from an attractive proposition for the global defence and aerospace conglomerates to invest in India’s defence production sector. But then whether hiking the FDI cap to 49% by the NDA government in its maiden budget presented in the Indian parliament on 10 July would prod foreign investors to pass on their
latest genre technologies to Indian partners is not an easy guess at this moment.
Far from being a magic wand to help India build a home-grown defence industry based on indigenous expertise, an increased FDI could be considered no more than a catalyst for the Indian defence producers to face the challenges of designing and developing high-end, complex fighting equipment with domestic resources. In this context, Rahul Gangal, Principal, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants says, “I think this is a positive step though it may not be as much of a move forward as everyone was hoping. The treatment of the balance 51% will be critical .The earlier policy at 26% FDI required 51% to be held by one resident Indian entity. It would be interesting to note what the change in that is, if any.”
Indian Finance Minister and Defence Minister Arun
Jaitley, while presenting the budget for 2014-15,
did admit to the ignominious distinction India has
achieved as the ‘largest importer’ of arms and
fighting systems. That a country which has sent
probes to Moon and Mars continues to meet 2/3rd
of its defence requirements via imports stands out
as a far from edifying testimony to its “poor state
of defence industrial infrastructure,” said Jaitely.
“We are buying a substantial portion of our
defence requirements directly from foreign players.
Companies controlled by foreign governments and
foreign private sectors are supplying our defence
requirements to us at a considerable outflow of
foreign exchange,” he added.
Significantly, it has also been decided to continue
with the policy of permitting higher FDI cap beyond
the stipulated 49% in the event of a foreign investor
willing to part with the latest genre technologies at
his command. This, however, would be subject to
approval by the Cabinet Committee on Security on
a case-to-case basis. For quite some time now,
industry and trade bodies in India have been
lobbying for facilitating an increased FDI inflow in
the defence production sector. It was in 2001 that
India opened its defence production sector to
private participation. However, the view of the
Indian industrial sector active in defence
production is that it would be naïve to expect high
technology to flow into Indian industry simply
because foreign firms can invest more and
repatriate profits. One would therefore need to wait
and watch.
India should go about building a military-industrial
complex based on its long term strategic needs. At
present, much of the defence production activities
in India are centred on the facilities of the Defence
Public Sector Undertakings and Ordnance Factories
Board (OFB). Lack of direction and motivation as
well as interference meant that they could come
out with very few new and innovative products
featuring state of the art technologies. Conversely,
private sector companies, that have made a
modest foray into the defence production sector,
are not enthusiastic about investing in research
and development to build high-end fighting
systems. As such, the private sector in India’s
defence manufacturing would need to be
encouraged and incentivised to invest in research
and development through a slew of proactive
measures.
There is a need for in depth evaluation of the
possible long term political, geostrategic and
security fallouts of an increased FDI cap in the
defence production sector.
Specifically, the trade sanction and technological
embargo emanating from the US and its western
allies could deal a paralysing blow to a joint
venture involving a partnership of a US-based
defence company. Sufficient strategic safeguards
should need to be built into joint ventures involving
foreign participation. Otherwise the entire exercise
of enhancing FDI cap in India’s defence production
sector could prove counterproductive, with serious
consequences for the combat-readiness of the
Indian defence forces. Self reliance in defence
production should revolve round a long-term vision
of the security threat perception faced by the
country.

THE REVOLUTIONS OF JULY

David Stokes


On July 14, 1789, Thomas Jefferson was
serving as America’s Ambassador to France.
The author of the Declaration of Independence
in another July, thirteen-years earlier, was an
eyewitness to the political unrest leading to
the storming of a political prison called The
Bastille . Though the fortress housed only
seven inmates at the moment, including four
forgers, it remains the iconic symbol of the
beginning of The French Revolution.
Our Constitution had been ratified a year
earlier, and George Washington had recently
been inaugurated as our first President, so
there was great interest in America about
what was going on in France 225 years ago.
After all, the French had been extremely
helpful to us during our successful struggle to,
as Jefferson phrased it, “dissolve the political
bands” that connected us to the British
monarchy. Americans were therefore
understandably sympathetic with a movement
against monarchial tyranny in France.
The American and French Revolutions are
linked in history largely because of
chronology, but they were vastly different
affairs. One led to a new birth of freedom—the
other to terror and tyranny, becoming the
prototype for unspeakable horrors to come.
Most Americans are familiar with a phrase
from John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address on
January 20, 1961—that whole “Ask not…”
thing. But I think the most important thing JFK
said that day was this: “And yet the same
revolutionary beliefs for which our forebears
fought are still at issue around the globe—the
belief that the rights of man come not from the
generosity of the state, but from the hand of
God. We dare not forget today that we are the
heirs of that first revolution.” [Emphasis
added]
But what is happening in our nation right now
may resemble what happened in France in
1789 more than what happened in
Philadelphia in 1776. For many Americans,
especially those on the left, the cry of “Liberty
– Equality – Fraternity” is much more resonant
than the one about “Life – Liberty – and the
Pursuit of Happiness.”
It is in the parsing of those vitally important
words that we find the keys to understanding
where we came from, where we are, and
where we are going. One revolution was about
individual rights and dreams. The other was
about “the people” as a group and the highest
virtue being “the greater good.”
When Thomas Jefferson wrote about “life,
liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” in the
Declaration of Independence, he was
borrowing from 17th century English
philosopher John Locke who wrote about “life,
liberty, and the pursuit of property.” Jefferson’s
use of this language was clearly designed to
describe the rights of individual people to live
free, be free, and pursue their dreams in a free
marketplace. Those thoughts were very much
present in that Philadelphia birthing room.
The French Revolution, on the other hand—
though similar to what happened here in
America, in the sense of changing things and
breaking free from an old order—had little to
do with individual rights.
It was all about collectivism .
And in many ways, the French Revolution is
the ancestor of all totalitarian systems to
follow. Hitler, Mussolini, Pol Pot, Lenin, and
all other political gangsters were heirs of
Robespierre, and later Napoleon. Those
tyrannical manifestations were not misguided
aberrations—distortions of something that
started out good (as in, “Lenin was cool, too
bad Stalin messed it all up”)—the seeds of the
horror were present at the beginning. Jean-
Jacques Rousseau, 18th century Enlightenment
philosopher, wrote about volonté générale or
“general will,” and the Jacobins, followed by
others, ran with it. In their thinking, “the will
of the people” could only be expressed by
enlightened leaders.
Yes, our revolution indeed drew a measure of
strength from the Enlightenment, but it was of
the earlier Lockean variety. America’s use of
Enlightenment concepts was tempered by
something else; something that set it apart
from what happened in France—a spiritual
foundation.
Vive la revolution - Vive la difference .
The French not only declared war on the
monarchy, they also attacked Christianity,
replacing it with a religion of the state and
introducing the worship of secularism. Sound
familiar?
In America, it was very different. I am not one
of those who spends a lot of time trying to
prove the Christian bona fides of every
founding father, but I do believe that the
influence of what was called The Great
Awakening, which ended about twenty years
before the shot heard around the world was
fired, was still very much a part of our
national fabric.
And another such movement, often referred to
as the Second Great Awakening, began while
the French were unsuccessfully trying to
figure out how to be free. To ignore those
religious and cultural movements in America is
to miss an important piece of the puzzle. The
very concepts of liberty, equality, and
fraternity sound nice and make for great
propaganda. But in the end, without virtue
born of something deeper and greater, even
the best rhetoric is mocked by what actually
happens when human nature runs amuck. This
is why all totalitarian regimes like to call their
realms things like The People’s Republic of
China , or Democratic People's Republic of
Korea, or The People’s Commonwealth of
Massachusetts .
We need to beware of those who share our
vocabulary but use a different dictionary.
The reason it has all worked and endured so
well in this land is because we are a nation
“under God.” There, I said it. There is no real
liberty without that. All attempts at actual
freedom end up moving toward tyranny
without some sense of higher purpose and
power. I believe firmly in the separation of
church and state. But minus positive religious
influence, a nation cannot long remain free.
C. S. Lewis said it very well in The Screwtape
Letters 70 years ago: “Hidden in the heart of
this striving for Liberty there was also a deep
hatred of personal freedom. That invaluable
man Rousseau first revealed it. In his perfect
democracy, only the state religion is permitted,
slavery is restored, and the individual is told
that he has really willed (though he didn't
know it) whatever the Government tells him to
do. From that starting point, via Hegel
(another indispensable propagandist on our
side), we easily contrived both the Nazi and
the Communist state. Even in England we
were pretty successful. I heard the other day
that in that country a man could not, without
a permit, cut down his own tree with his own
axe, make it into planks with his own saw,
and use the planks to build a tool shed in his
own garden.”
Sound familiar?

BIAFRA INDEPENDENCE 2014

Terry Paulson


What would you say to the Founding Fathers
who gathered in Philadelphia to craft the
Declaration of Independence knowing that it
would mean war with England? Would you
have told them to wait, to keep trying
diplomacy, or to wait for England to leave
them alone? Would you support their taking
up arms to protect their people and their
rights? Thank God, they justified and
supported the war for independence that made
America free.
While the world is once again preoccupied
with tensions in the Middle East and in the
Ukraine, there is a growing call for
independence for Biafra. Nnamdi Kanu , the
Director of Radio Biafra, is the world-wide
voice for the indigenous people of Biafra
(IPOB) in the south and southeast of Nigeria.
They are weary of seeing their women raped,
their churches burned, and their villages
bombed and terrorized.
They remember the 1967-1970 Biafra-Nigeria
Civil War that resulted in the genocide of over
3 million IPOB Christians while the world was
focused on Vietnam and the conflict in the
Middle East. Once again, they're seeing buses
of Muslim terrorists/cattle herdsmen
vandalizing their farms and villages.
Thankfully, six have been arrested when two
bombs were found and defused at the Living
Faith Church,popularly known as Winners'
Chapel, in Owerri, Nigeria.
Enough is enough. The IPOB are ready to
defend themselves. To the largely Christian
population in Biafra, the concept of a Holy
War is not a theoretical discussion; it is a
matter of survival and freedom from the
Islamic Caliphate that is sweeping the Middle
East and Africa. But they know that any
declaration of Independence is but a piece of
paper; independence must be earned.
Why focus on Nigeria when ISIS has
aggressively secured a beachhead in Syria and
Iraq for their self-proclaimed Islamic caliphate
united under Sharia Law? The Middle East is
but the tip of the iceberg in the drive for an
Islamic caliphate. For years, Africa has been a
target of the extremists' dream of a unified
Africaunder Islamic control.
The brazen attacks on Christians and moderate
Muslims by Boko Haram in Nigeria have been
happening for years. In 2012, Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton had been reluctant to
label them a Foreign Terrorist Organization
(FTO) for fear of cutting them off from
diplomatic contact.
Only the reported abduction and threat to sell
200 young Nigerian women into slavery or
forced marriage has awakened the western
media. The comments by video in May of Boko
Haram's leader, Imam Abubakar Shekau ,
speaks of their all too public mission:
"You infidels of the world, you have met a
trouble, we must follow Allah, and you should
die with bitterness. Brethren cut out infidels
from their necks, brothers you should capture
slaves; just because I took girls in western
school they are worried. I said they should
even desert the school, they should go and
marry. Nonsense, I am the one that captured
your girls and I will sell them in the market. I
have my own market of selling people; it is the
owner that instructed me to sell. Yes, I will
sell the girls people, I am selling the girls like
Allah said until we soak the ground of Nigeria
with infidels blood and so called Muslims
contradicting Islam. After we have killed,
killed, killed and get fatigue and wondering on
what to do with smelling of their corpses,
smelling of Obama, Bush, Putin and Jonathan
worried us then we will open prison and be
imprisoned the rest. Infidels have no value. It
is Jonathan's daughter that I will imprison;
nothing will stop this until you convert. If you
turn to Islam then you will be saved."
When Britain laid out the borders in Africa for
the breakup of its empire, countries were not
formed to help build viable nations. Nigeria
was formed as a dysfunctional colony that
combined naturally competing peoples in a
way that would sow perpetual discord and
allow Western companies to freely take
advantage of the natural resources they
treasured.
As Nigerian Ambassador Bola Dada asserted,
"Our problem is not leadership, it's our weak
foundation. No one can govern Nigeria
successfully now because of the faulty
foundation. So the foundation has to be pulled
down before we can see any way out."
The current Christian President, Goodluck
Jonathan, has been neutered. He wants a
united Nigeria, but he has no real power.
Under the alleged support of sponsors like
General Babangida, known as IBB, Islamic
extremists have infiltrated the armed services,
police departments and the political
administration. Their mission is clear--protect
Islamic extremists and Boko Haram. It's no
wonder that Islamic terrorists are expanding
their attacks throughout Nigeria.
This demand for the independence of Biafra is
far from new. In March 2008, 145 countries
voted to support the United Nations
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous
People . Although not supported by President
George W. Bush, President Obama endorsed
UNDRIP in 2010.
The people of Biafra want independence and
are asking for help around the world. The IPOB
can trace their roots in Judeo-Christian
heritage to the lineage of Jacob, one of the
founding patriarchs of both faith communities.
The fight for Biafra independence provides a
tangible way to thwart the drive for an Islamic
caliphate in Africa. It's time once again to
support a people whose time for independence
has come. It's not our fight, but, with UN
justification, it's a fight we should support.