AND THE WORLD CHANGED

Bill Tatro


One might think that natural disasters, man-
made disasters or man’s inhumanity to man
would have nothing to do with the bull market
started on March 9 , 2009 and still continuing
to today. On the face of it you would be right.
However, when you look below the surface,
there are great similarities and therefore a
great lesson to be learned.
79A.D. was the year when peace had finally
come to the Roman town of Pompeii. After all
of the wars, taxes levied, and overall economic
disruption, I am certain the citizenry were
looking forward to a time that would bring a
degree of normality for all. Unfortunately a
temperamental volcano changed the lives of
20,000 people not only for the year ahead but
for all eternity. They just weren’t expecting it.
At 5:12 am April 18, 1906 certain plates in the
earth’s crust shifted. Four hundred and ten
thousand people who, less than twenty four
hours earlier, were not even aware of what a
seismic reading meant, saw their world change
forever. The San Francisco earthquake
potential had been discussed by many. Most
however believed that possible and probable
were simply words in the Knob Hill lexicon.
They just weren’t expecting it.
December 7 , 1941, “a day that will live in
infamy.” The Empire of Japan attacked the
United States of America and thus thrust us
into the Second World War. On December 6
most Americans were doing their Christmas
shopping, planning parties, or thinking about
who would be taken off the Christmas card list
this year. The sinking of the Arizona and the
deaths of thousands of soldiers and sailors was
the last thing on their mind. They just weren’t
expecting it.
Three hundred thousand people were
evacuated from the area surrounding
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on March 11,
2011. It was perhaps the greatest nuclear
accident since Chernobyl. The finest minds had
concluded that such an event was not only
unthinkable but also almost impossible.
Therefore, the locals simply went about their
business, until they couldn’t. They just weren’t
expecting.
The markets continue to defy logic. Or do
they? As the usual gravitational pull seems to
be missing, there is something that is
happening right on cue. The so called
professionals are exiting in droves only to be
replaced by the man in the street who has
finally come to the conclusion that it is time to
get in. Of course, right on cue, the clueless
citizenry will look up to see lava pouring
down, plates shifting, bombs dropping, and a
core reactor melting down. All of which will
happen simultaneously as the markets finally
give way to one of the greatest man- made
Keynesian disasters of all time.
He of course will once again be decimated and
will respond “I just wasn’t expecting it.”